It seems possible, given the sort of year it has been. This plot from DMI shows what appears to be the classic “end of melt season” turn in sea ice extent, a good 2-3 weeks before it usually occurs. Whether this is just a wiggle that may be followed by a downturn remains to be seen, but it certainly is interesting.
![icecover_current_new[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/icecover_current_new1.png?quality=75)
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php (via the WUWT sea ice page)
JAXA reports a turn as well:
So does NANSEN:
If this is truly a turn in the melt season, it will be the earliest one in the satellite record and will mean that the average sea ice extent for September will be well above 6 million square kilometers.
That will put a real twist in the ARCUS sea-ice forecasting contest.
For those who would hold up the NSIDC chart and say “see, not turning!”:
I’ll point out that the NSIDC graph displays a 5 day running average, and like the Titanic, is slow to turn before collisions with near real-time data like we see with JAXA, NANSEN, and DMI.
This may be nothing more than a shift in wind pattern, changing sea ice concentration, only to shift pattern again in a few days, sending the curve downward again. But the air temperature is below freezing, according to DMI:
Mean Temperature above 80°N:
We will find out in a few days if this is really the end of melt season, or just a curious blip. Watch the WUWT sea ice page.
Most unlikely,
Looking at Nansen data I’d say there’s another dip to it yet. A few days ago I suggested the 9th +/- 1
Also NSIDC does not look ready for turning.
NSIDC runs a 5 day average, so it won’t show a turn until after it has occurred.
Well even if it’s an economist’s share price style trailing average it can only be 2.5 days out of sync. It does not look that near to turning and it is pretty smooth.
The short time “cycles” in aay Nansen, seem to be on the scale of 7-10 days and the poor man’s 5 day filter seems to take most of it out.
Using a properly centred filter it can be either side depending upon when the wiggles happen and what filter is chosen.
I found it needed at least a 13day gaussian filter to get stable date for annual min/max ice
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=964
That’s comparable to a 26d running average. I’ll need to wait until near the end of October to find a weather-free result for 2014.
“””””…..Using a properly centred filter it can be either side depending upon when the wiggles happen and what filter is chosen. ……”””””
So Greg, why filter ? Is not the measured data more accurate, as a record of what actually happened.
No filter can ADD information; it can only throw away real information that you already have in your possession.
I’ll wait for the real future data.
We’ll know how serious this is in four months when Al Roker starts going ga-ga over the polar vortex and the worst, most unprecedented blizzard, to ever hit New York City.
Considering we just had snow in Banff, I’ll put my money on the ice extent growing robustly.
Light snow and windy in Barrow, AK, with forecast high of 35 degrees F, low of freezing, which it is now.
For us in Canada this looks bad
I agree. We’re in for another brutal winter. I’ve got the furnace running right now.
I am a global cooling climate refugee in Tucson Arizona. The AC is running now, and it may hit 40C this afternoon but a dip in my 84degF pool is always an option. Cooler weather coming next week may mean my AC will be off by mid Sept until next May. And no heat needed until December to take the chill off the 40degF nights. Lots of Canadian licar license plates start showing up here in late October. This year that may be too late to avoid a blizzard in Alberta.
It’s snowing here now.
https://twitter.com/alan_poirier/status/507234352346845184
I’m in Jasper right now (for the rest of you: north of Banff by three hours if you’re driving waaay over the speed limit). Didn’t go to bed until 5 AM. Never heard rain, which I can always hear on the skylights, nor did I see any, but when I got up this AM the ground and paths looked as if it had been raining. Maybe it was melted snow?
Hope I don’t have to drive through the stuff when I drive back to the US. This is way too early for snow.
If the turn proves to have been for good, then it will be “just weather”. “Nothing to see here; move along”, despite last year’s high minimum.
I estimated 6 in the WUWT average….hmmmmm I wonder what all us 6ers will win from Anthony? A new house, boat, vacation to somewhere warm this winter (if we can find a spot)?
No, a free place on next years $20k North-west passage luxury cruise ship. ( As long as you can provide proof of your $50k dollar travel insurance ).
Isn’t the Antarctic Peninsula supposed to be a warm spot?????
Would be weird if the turn is early. Of course being weird means “climate weird-ing” which in turn means CAGW and therefore, an early turn w/ more ice (i.e. cooling) will be touted as an expected outcome to the burning of the evil fossil-fuel.
Should Arctic sea ice and multi-year ice start increasing (generally with ups and downs) over the next decade it will be very interesting to read Warmists’ reactions.
• Oh but the trend is still down from 1850.
• Oh but it’s just natural variation masking the spiral melt of death.
• This is another sign of climate disruption.
• Climate change has caused cold air from Siberia up towards the pole.
• We never said Arctic sea ice would not increase.
• Death spiral? Who said that?
OK, OK, there will be a 300 year pause, but after that it will be brutally hot.
IMVHO too early to call, but as “given the sort of year it has been” it is not impossible.
As illustrated by the Barents Sea, which, according to Masie has been gaining extent since the beginning of August:-
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/r06_Barents_Sea_ts.png
Seem to recall a paper/s blaming cold NH winters on the lack of summer sea ice in the Barents.
Yep, it was called “Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss”
Seth Boringstein did a piece about it recently.
Pathetic nonsense, of course.
The opposite is true.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/09/02/study-linking-polar-vortex-chills-to-melting-sea-ice-rejected-by-leading-ipcc-author/
Here are the daily changes in NH ice cover in sq. Km. per JAXA data for the past 15 days ending sept 2nd.
-60153
-62752
-61959
-49621
-47635
-54083
-34281
-25253
-14682
-20646
-25829
-2435
+2730
-5180
-12925
Since discovering that my view on the change in climate in Switzerland around 2005 is probably related to the AMO(?) changing at that time and knowing that we are now in a ‘quiet’ Sun phase.
I’m horrified that uptick may be real.
Come on guys, we’re behaving like alarmists looking for an El Nino!
let nature take it’s course, it won’t disappoint us.
I wish CO2 actually warmed us. We could use some warming in Canada. We’ve had a cold summer that started late and is ending early. We heat nine months of the year in many places.
Who is “We”. Here in Calgary, we have had a very hot summer, deffinatly the best one since I moved here in 1997. 2001 was fairly nice as well, but 2014 was better.
9 months?? Here in south central Ontario, heat was on until the end of June, then again mid July until the last 1/2 week of July, then on again mid Aug until the last 1/2 week of August. On for good now. Who gets 9 months? On the plus side, I just booked our tickets back to the land of light and warmth for 6 months. I only come back to Canada for winter (in the summer).
“let nature take its course” — no, No, NO! When the data shows, as this does, an ice age is imminent we must take steps. Now! The precautionary principle requires that we MUST:
1) add more CO2 to the atmosphere to increase the greenhouse effect.
2) build new powerplants that are not vulnerable to icing (as are windmills) and overcast cloudy weather, (as are solar plants) — I suggest nukes.
3) fire the old scientists and hire a crop of young newly en-doctored climate researchers to spend federal money to forecast the new crisis
With the DMI mean Arctic temp already below -2C, it certainly seems probable Arctic Ice recovery may come early this year.
It’s highly improbable another string of Arctic vortices will occur two years running (caused huge Arctic temp spikes last year), so this year’s Arctic Ice has the potential to expand multi-year ice substantially, which will really be a source of consternation to the Warmunists.
Algore said the Arctic summer ice would be all gone by 2015… Not so much..
In 2007 speech, Gore said “ice-free” summer Arctic Ocean by 2013 or 2014:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2738653/Stunning-satellite-images-summer-ice-cap-thicker-covers-1-7million-square-kilometres-MORE-2-years-ago-despite-Al-Gore-s-prediction-ICE-FREE-now.html
Based upon Maslowski’s prediction:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
Whadams said ice free for 2015 or 2016. No later than that.
Interesting thread in DU about this on Sunday that claims Gore never actually predicted it, just parroted the data from a study. Someone else said that since he used the Nobel Prize speech to make the statement and he was being held up as an “expert”, he must agree with the study.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1127&pid=74271
“But the air temperature is below freezing, according to DMI:” Freezing what? sea water freezing is about -1.8 deg C. not zero.
Is the NSIDC a trailing average like share prices or is it a properly centred low-pass filter.?
And it is at 271 K or -2 C now.
Freezing what? sea water freezing is about -1.8 deg C. not zero.
But the melt pools on top and any recent rain/slush/sleet are fresh water……
NSIDC apparently hasn’t updated their monitor graphs in about 5 days, Long Labor Day weekend. Their last Greenland “daily melt” graph still shows August 28th as the last day estimated.
From the graph above it looks like the last point is 1st Sept. so I’m guessing it’s a trailing 5d average as AW suggested.
It is an average temperature meaning some places are colder, some places are warmer. This can certainly lead to ice growth.
New ice is forming within the pack close to the pole. (It is denoted by the “1” to the side of the egg code box)..
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS51SD/20140902180000_WIS51SD_0007847449.pdf
There’s a battle going on between gains and losses in different parts of the Arctic. According to daily gain/loss data at MAISE, yesterday Chukchi Sea lost 14,000km^2 while the Canadian Archipelago gained 27,000km^2
It’s a big tug of war right now! Sunshinehours has a neatly organized blog that charts the daily gains and losses by region that’s well worth a glance.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/
Did any small boats get through the NW Passage this year?
4 westbound boats (+1 from 2013) and 3 eastbound (+1 hold over from 2013) made it through the Bellot Straits choke point from Aug 27-Sept 2. So they will likely complete the passage by the end of September freeze up. It was a close thing. Favorable winds opened a thin passage between Fort Ross and Goya Haven.
See: Sept. 1 summary of news and links to other sources.
There was at least one other ice capable passage ship that made the NW Passage:
M/V SILVER EXPLORER: a large 132 passenger vessel. She left Greenland on Aug. 8, must have passed the Bellot Strait about Aug 20, needed Ice Breaker assistance in the Victoria Strait, and got to Nome Alaska on Sept 1.
The M/V BRENNEN was planning and in and out voyage from Greenland. It went west through Bellot Strait on Aug. 25 with an icebreaker and back again on Aug 26, abandoning the leg to Cambridge Bay.
The M/V L’AUSTRAL is scheduled for 1st week in September with Bellot Strait on Sept 5-6
About four days ago I estimated the minimum on most metrics would arrive near 09/11. The past few years, I’ve found the minimum to correspond very well with the Navy model “freezing over”. See here:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicen_nowcast_anim30d.gif
When the big “red sweep” occurs, the minimum is close. The above graphic now goes through 09/10, and with the four extra days of output, you can get a better feel for the “red sweep”.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised in the CT area minimum could be any day now, possibly even today, given that it has fallen dramatically while other area metrics have been flat lately. 2005 was analogous, with a very early CT area minimum right after a couple days of huge drops.
In reality, does it really matter? 2013 was a nice rebound with a huge influence from good weather. But last winter should not have been good for ice, and weather this summer was also unfavorable for retaining ice. So basically being equal to 2013 on area/extent metrics and probably exceeding 2013 on volume metrics is great considering the bad weather.
-Scott
Please explain how you get data from a week into the future?
It’s a navy model, as said in my first post. Just like current weather models, it forecasts well when looking just a few days in the future.
-Scott
Do you have a link for that Navy product, please? TIA
Well that image is a link pretty much. I can right click it and open it in a new tab, and that provides the address.
But, here’s the directory it came from with all sorts of other goodies:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/
-Scott
Thanks. I see that now. The image is indeed linked to the source, not WUWT/Wordpress. Gracias!
This is an important climate metric. We discussed this in one of our posts a few years ago
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/09/09/temporal-trends-in-arctic-and-antarctic-sea-ice-maximum-and-minimum-areal-extents/
Our findings were
“The time of occurrence of the maximum and minimum sea ice coverage in the Arctic showed slight trends towards occurring earlier in the year, although not significant. In the Southern Hemisphere, the trends were smaller and also not significant, but the time of ice maximum was becoming later, contrary to the other three trends.”
An update through this year would be valuable.
If the daily min/max dates are used nothing will be “significant” because there’s a lot of weather related noise in the signal.
Applying some filtering makes the longer term changes fairly clear
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=964
Just forgot we can link images directly now.
http://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/ant_arctic_melting_season3.png?w=800
From the analysis I linked: There has been a notable shortening of the Arctic melting season since the “catastrophic” melting of 2007. Taking the average of the last two years as a typical recent value and comparing to 2005, the derived melting season has shortened by 9 days.
Greg: How do Ilink images directly? Thanks.
just type the URL of the image starting http. This is the one big plus with WUWT recent changes , this was only available to special people before and WP would dump any references to images.
Roger: I have been following ice min/max, and to 2013, the ice min/max are both coming slightly earlier. I get both min and max as comimg about just over 4 days per century earlier. The net result is the melt season, using min/max dates, is getting longer by about 1/2 day per century.
To the end 2013, there is no significant trend in the length of the melt season. It is increasing, but at the rate of 1/2 a day per 100 years. The number of melt days (top graph), only goes outside 1 sigma, 6 times. 3 times its longer, but 3 times its shorter. Only one year, 1997, goes outside 2 sigma. 1997 was the year with the longest melt season.
Ice maximum averages to be at March 8. Ice minimum at Sept 12.
The melt season is about 10 days longer than the freeze season, but this is mostly due to the length of the spring-summer seasons being about 7 days longer than the fall-winter seasons.”
I will update my charts when the Sept minimum is reached.
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=20uae79&s=8#!
Based on above average temperatures, I all guess September 15 for a definite upward progression rather than up and down wiggles.
Les, drawing a straight line through an arbitrary segment of data like that is meaingless.
Also, according to your reckonning 2013 was one of the longest in the record and 2007 very near average.
I think this also underlines that taking single day minima is not a very useful way to assess the length of the melting season if you want to look at inter-annaul variations.
You have more noise than signal there and it is not informative. Like Roger found the changes are not statistically significant.
Greg: Yes, I found the chnages insignificant too. My charts are based on Rogers, as I used the same data, from his 2009 post, and continued the series.
I also saw the anomalous seasons in 2007/2013. I think that taking only one season at face value would be foolish. Weather, like the 2012 storm, would drastically change the outcome. But charting the entire data series gives a good indication; ie climate.
If you don’t like melt days chart, the min/max date chart is stil useful, and it shows very little change
This is the min/max, by day of the year.
http://oi62.tinypic.com/20uae79.jpg
Les, the effects of weather are short-term and can be filtered out to a large degree. I suggest you read the link I posted above where I explain the method adopted. Roger may find it useful too, though I don’t expect he is still following the thread.
A good, circa 20d low-pass filter is enough to remove most of erratic variability and leaves one unique change of direction per year. That is then a better indicator of the general state of the ice and when melting started and finished.
Using that technique, I get 2007 as a long melting season and all since 2010 as short melting, less then six months.
With the exception of 1999, we also see a long run of melting seasons greater than 6 months up to 2009 and that matches the major change in ice coverage. We also see the tendency for year to year alternation which has been noted in the literature in relation to ice area.
Your dates (for the melt season, for minimum – maximum dates) are Arctic ONLY.
Antarctic minimum and maxim days are quite a bit different than the Arctic. Given that both poles are working sometimes opposite one another, I strongly recommend you NOT use a combined ice max/min either.
Seems like a blip to me, as sea ice area is still going down fast, which means that areas that had a lot of ice still have ice but less of it, so the melting continues even if the extent seems to be the same. Any wind change and we will see the extent go down, either because it compreses ice in areas where it is sparse now, for lower extent, or because it disperses ice in already low concentration areas to concentrations below 15%, making them not count for extent.
“Fast” isn’t quite the descriptive I would use, “reducing normally” would seem more appropriate!
When the anomaly is increasing (i.e. bigger difference with average values), it means that it is reducing faster than average for this time of the year. And the arctic sea ice area anomaly has increased quite clearly during the last 10 days or so.
A traffic jam occurred at the North Pole last week. There were four icebreakers there, two from Canada and two from Russia
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/is-mapping-the-north-pole-seabed-worth-the-time-and-money-1.2750038
Environment Canada has a new North Pole ice chart as they measure the ice on return trip.
I hope they don’t get sucked into the hole Apparently all those who have ventured in have never returned. 😉
In the last sea-ice post Bill Illis posted two satellite pictures, from last summer and this summer, which clearly showed how much more packed-together the ice is this summer. The thing about the “extent” graph is that it doesn’t really take into account how densely packed the ice is. An area may be 75% water and 25% ice, and it gets the same weight as an area that is 95% ice and 5% water.
At this point in the season some of the “decrease” in ice is due to spread-out ice being packed more closely together by winds, and some of the “increase” is due to packed ice being spread out. However it is hard, this year, to pack the ice more tightly than it already is, while there is plenty of room to spread the ice out. Therefore, at the risk of putting a hex on the graph, I’ll somewhat timidly state that the ice-extent-graph may increase or stay flat from now on.
This will make no difference in terms of the “volume” or “area” if the ice. However it will make a difference in the composure of Alarmists. I can hardly wait to hear their explanations.
There will not be any. As usual they will go very quiet on the subject and wait until next time it increases to start waving thier arms again.
In the meantime expect much more interest in millenial scale changes in Antarctic ice.
I noted some wind changes last week that were coming from Canada into the Arctic. I had wondered if that might push and spread some of the packed ice back out into the central arctic waters. One thing for sure there is no hope for any progress through the Northwest Passage this year.
I think you are right. There was a tight little low north of Alaska that had south winds on its east side. Now that low is sliding southeast, heading into inland Canada and perhaps Hudson Bay, and the winds behind it are north. So the ice that was pushed away will now be blown back.
RE The first Graph
Why are the years 1979-2000 the magic baseline that all others are to be compared to for the rest of eternity?
(Serious question even if masked in sarcasm.)
Dedicated satellite observations started in 1979. Agree however that a better basis would be the 30 years to 2008.
Even better, not just for this metric but numerous others, would be reliable data for the last 1000 years.
@ur momisugly sleepingbear dunes –
What? You don’t think a tree in Siberia is a reliable data source?
Actually it is hard to get a future negative slope when 1974 was -1M sq. Km. IPCC graph 1990:
http://i60.tinypic.com/ft9v9.jpg
Anomaly.
Goddard
It would be great news if the 2014 melt season was over and ice had started to increase, but I think it’s a bit presumptuous to call it at this stage. If you look at graphs from previous years, there are lots of occurrences of the rate leveling off or temporarily increasing before taking another dip (e.g., 2010). Also, if you look at the NRL graph of Ice Speed and Drift, there are several large dark orange regions, denoting substantial ice movement.
If Kevin Trenberth disagrees with a scary stupid global warming study, then it REALLY must be bad…
— But – report the scare, not the denial.
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/09/02/new_study_finds_global_warming_melting_sea_ice_connected_to_polar_vortex.html
It will reach minimum on the 22nd of September plus or minus 1 day.
I think the really interesting phenomenom is IF in fact ice has turned, it will possibly recover very near the normal or above line from 1 month onwards? Just speculation but it will really devastate the AGW crowd and its theories about ice melting etc. BTW Steven Goddard has alreday shown that before 1979 ice melted dramatically but the warmists removed that part of the graph and only start at the highest levels (1979)
Here’s the earlier satellite graph, IPCC 1990, appended to today’s graph.
http://i61.tinypic.com/xu1l3.jpg
Interesting how in 1990, 1979 was ~.8M sq. Km, now it is shown to have been ~1.2M sq. Km. Must have been that UHI adjustment. /sarc
Good find. Don’t know how compatible that data is but if the IPCC used it must be gospel truth for a warmist.
Sorry, Steve, but you have erred. The baseline for that early chart was the average of that chart which you have stated is ~.8M sq km so you need to lift the early chart by that much.
Different base periods. Jeez