That now failed headline is from Duncan Clark in the Guardian.
And, for good measure he added:
New estimate based on the forthcoming upturn in solar activity and El Niño southern oscillation cycles is expected to silence global warming sceptics
Just a few small problems there:
- Climategate gave skeptics a worldwide voice and stage
- Actual temperature has been flat, not increasing
- Actual solar activity has been far lower than predicted, not increasing
- What El Niño?
Let’s take them one by one.
1. Climategate: I’ll give Duncan this one, nobody could have predicted this event, even though many skeptics had been correctly predicting that behind the scenes there was a lot of “team collusion” going on, which was laid bare for all to see. See our WUWT Climategate section here.
2. Actual temperature has been flat, not increasing: Yes, and since this is a British newspaper, lets use British data to illustrate it and Paul Clark’s excellent “Woodfortrees” website to show what has been happening since 2009 with British HadCRUT4 data.
Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2009/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2009/trend
3. Actual solar activity has been far lower than predicted, not increasing: A whole bunch of scientists missed this one, except Dr. Leif Svalgaard. Many were predicting a larger than normal solar cycle, instead we got the weakest one in 100 years.
This animated graph shows the progression of shrinking predictions:
4. What El Niño? I’ll let Bob Tisdale explain that one here:
The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 2 – The Alarmist Misinformation (BS) Begins
We live in interesting times.
UPDATE:
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“Great moments in climate prediction”
Love the “Great Moments In” series, Anthony!
Some people never learn difference between empiri and fictive projections
The Guardian. Pah. I fart in its general direction.
I wouldn’t waste the energy. Even for the easing . . . . .
Auto
Back in the oughties there were many alarmist predictions of climate doom, not one of which have actually materialised, If anything climate has been more clement during that period.
Haven’t these idiots ever heard about the boy who cried wolf!
Anthony: Would you include a section in your new website that lists all the model and climate predictions which have not come true or which have failed? The Ice Free Artic prediction is always a great one. If you have included these, I have yet to find them in one place. Thanks for your time and attention to this matter.
P.S. I found the ClimateFail Files but they do not appear to be complete. They deal with Nye and Gore but there are waaaaay more. Thanks.
Please send some of that warming to the central U.S.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/maps.php?imgs%5B%5D=statewidetavgrank&year=2014&month=7&ts=ytd&submitted=Submit
Yes, but here in Britain, Duncan Clark is, what we call, a twat.
I beg to differ Big Jim, if only on grounds of him being preachy; he’s more of a prat than a twat.
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2012/05/18/climate-alarmism-and-the-prat-principle/
Pointman
Yes, a prat.
And if there are any readers who have not read Pointman’s link then I strongly suggest that they do because it is one of the funniest of comic posts ever written; truly, a classic.
Richard
Agree with Richard. Pointman’s prat article is one of the best on his site.
Thank you Richard, but I think you might be referring to one of these two !
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/climate-prat-of-2013-we-have-a-winnah/
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2012/12/21/ladiees-and-gennulmen-we-have-a-winnah/
Pointman
We still use “prattle” and “pratfall” on this side of the pond, but not often anymore. As we move farther from the Queen, we move farther from the Queen’s English. We need Monty Python back on the air.
A brilliant article.
Well worth reading, I suggest.
Not only for Brits, who may have imbibed most of this with their Mother’s milk, but also for non-Brits, who, I have no doubt, have something pretty similar, and might appreciate the help Pointman offers.
Auto
Come on!! Being politicised is expected when you work in the Guardian?
He can be a prat AND a twat at the same time. And he wouldn’t be alone in that…
Firstly let me recommend to our American friends, Rogers Profanisaurus ISBN 1-907232-90-7 as an invaluable interpretive document when perusing climate science. We should also consider the use of perineal metaphors when we can’t decide if they are being a twat or an a*seh*le….
they have no choice either the global temperature will rise rapidly or their prediction will be falsified.
they should have said whaterver the natural processes wich slowed the rise of temperature they will stop and the rise will resume unababted…..if not ..well we may have been wrong…
The five years are up, so the prediction has been falsified.
The comments are quite funny on that article.
And it was back when they weren’t threaded so you can see the discussion develop.
[snip – off topic-mod]
And debate was permitted on the Guardian five years ago.
[snip – off topic-mod]
The ‘forthcoming upturn in solar activity’ refers to the current solar cycle. Back in the middle of 2009 we were still at/near the solar minimum. It is a low cycle, but definitely higher than the minimum.
Ah, but in 60 years time those temperatures between August 2009 and July 2014 will have been adjusted upwards and Duncan Clark of the Grauniad will have been correct all along.
No – the temps prior to 2009 will have been adjusted downwards. By this time, the LIA will have extended to 1950!
One of these days we’ll turn around and the climate Chicken Littles won’t be there.
*Turns around.*
Nope, still there.
‘Although every prediction we have ever made was mis-over-estimated, we now predict we have mis-under-estimated the previous prediction of warming.’
Is that what they are saying?
Great post WUWT especially the solar prediction one. Show it to your warmist pals LOL
Wait, they predict it will warm faster than they predict? Talk about positive feedback…
You can tell they’ve lost all momentum now, if they had a meeting or conference-call and planned out a strategy and decided this was a good idea to go forward with, it’s an indication of how hollowed-out, defeated and side-lined AGW is becoming.
We live in mendaciously ignorant times. The proliferation of fools and liars popping off has reached a tipping point that has made institutionalized public deceit an acceptable behavior.
At every level governments are engaged in unrestricted deceit and manipulation at levels never seen before.
Even down at the municipal level we see public officials spewing forth the products of collusion, ulterior motives, chiselers and con artists.
The AMO cycle is not moved by human incantations and it’s turning down now.
Shows how foolish and baseless there predictions are.
What happened to Co2 causing warming? Now its the sun and El Nino.
That’s what caught my eye as well. How was warming caused by natural factors supposed to silence skeptics?
did anyone mention that incongruence in 2009 – the reporter was effectively siding with the skeptics
The rent-seekers backed Gore and CO2 because they could make a buck from it. Starting with the corn-growers of Iowa, Big Al’s home state, who salivated at the foresee-able earnings from biofuels.
Are these experts now saying CO2 has been abandoned as a solar amplification? What about the dreaded ’emissions’ in that case? Are those reduced to the significance of a fart, after all?
I like the animated chart.
These clowns keep giving you fodder to report. As the sun sets on CAGW the shrill cries will continue to increase in orders of magnitude. Anthony, you have job security! 198,555,602 million views to date and that’s just here @ur momisugly WUWT.
I love the animated shrinking predictions – not often that watching an animated graph has made me laugh!
Duncan Clark is a…
TwatPratTwastard. Yes – that will do.
He’s still saying the predictions are correct in 2013.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/mar/27/climate-change-model-global-warming
No here’s a question.
If the excess heat is going into the oceans below 700m as Trenberth says then it can’t be affecting the weather very much. Why then are extreme weather events being linked to the energy imbalance which is supposed be causing climate change?
Because it helps in deluding the public.