Traveling today, as I have been all week, but this seemed like a good time for an open thread. Discuss anything within bounds of WUWT commenting policy.
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Traveling today, as I have been all week, but this seemed like a good time for an open thread. Discuss anything within bounds of WUWT commenting policy.
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
This past Monday here in Canada’s Capital, the high temperature was (approximately) 30C (86F) under sunny skies. By Thursday, the warm air had been chased away and the mercury dipped to 11C (51F). People are using the twitter hashtag #Augtober. (August meets October.) I sure hope some global warming shows up. Anyone have Al Gore’s or David Suzuki’s phone number? ;->
Mark Perry reposts Matt Ridley’s excellent essay on why we should be cheerful.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2014/08/matt-ridley-gives-us-12-great-reasons-to-be-cheerful/
Matts’ original:
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/reasons-to-be-cheerful-%281%29.aspx
Have a good weekend all!
Saint Peter calling for Robin Williams.
Here in New England, July and August so far have seemed unusually cool (to me). Is it? I’ve seen nothing in the press about this (assuming it’s true) as it would interfere with their narrative. Any thoughts?
@ur momisugly PaulH:
Aaagh! Not Al Gore! The last thing we need here is the Gore effect! In Toronto the temperature has not reached 30C once this summer – normally we’re good for at least 10 days in the 30s. I can’t remember a summer like this since the summer of 1992, but then we had Mt. Pinatubo to blame for the cold.
Records out at Pearson International Airport in Toronto have the mercury hitting between 29C -30C 6 times since June; and 30C or higher on other two occasions. Either way, it has been chilly.
I recently read about a long term steady decline in atmospheric O2. Could it be that the decline in O2 has been large enough to cause an apparent increase in CO2? CO2 in absolute quantity has perhaps stayed the same while it’s percentage of the atmosphere has gone up because O2 has gone down? Would like to know what the experts have to say.
Weather is never just weather
Says Sophie Cunningham in her new book which she is promoting all over Australia at the moment warning us to be afraid, extremely afraid.
Why? Well, guess what – this year marks the fortieth anniversary of Cyclone Tracy which hit the city of Darwin on Christmas Eve 1974, killing 71 people, destroying 80% of the houses and leaving 41,000 of the 47,000 inhabitants homeless.
(Expect lots and lots more cyclone hysteria leading up to Dec 24)
Listen here to Sophie’s grave warning on the ABC (17.44 on the download audio):
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/thelist/tracy/5673802
“We can expect more Tracys unless we begin to take climate change seriously” Sophie tells us.
“In the last three decades the number of cyclones and hurricanes has remained constant, but the number of Category 4 and 5 cyclones has increased. Cyclone Tracy, the cyclone that wiped out Darwin on Christmas Day 1974, was a Category 4 cyclone”.
http://thehoopla.com.au/tracys-extreme-weather-lessons/
The number of Category 4 and 5 cyclones has increased? Really!
Hey, hang on for a minute Sophie; this is what the BOM actually says about cyclones:
“Trends in tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (south of the equator; 90–160°E) show that the total number of cyclones appears to have decreased to the mid 1980s, and remained nearly stable since. The number of severe tropical cyclones (minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa) shows no clear trend over the past 40 years.”
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml
Ok it also says that:
“There is substantial evidence from theory and model experiments that the large-scale environment in which tropical cyclones form and evolve is changing as a result of greenhouse warming. Projected changes in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are subject to the sources of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections. There remains uncertainty in the future change in tropical cyclone frequency (the number of tropical cyclones in a given period) projected by climate models.”
And if you go to the technical report link it does state:
“Substantial disagreement remains between climate models concerning future changes in tropical cyclone intensity, although the highest resolution models show evidence of an increase in tropical cyclone intensity in a warmer world”
(Wonder what the lowest resolutions say?)
Sorry Sophie, when am I going to build my cyclone shelter in Sydney?
When we see something different on this trend graph of the REAL world, not the imagined model one:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/images/tc-graph-1969-2012.png
I’ve posted the following many times before, but to no avail. I can only ask you all to at least consider reading the Act below. This is not propaganda, it is a legitimate website by the so-called “Government Of Canada” (Her Majesty the Queen) which is nothing but a freakin corporate body politic. I do not espouse to any such activity engaged by this so-called government of Canada whether the activity is deemed safe or not. I will only except the weather as an act of God/Nature and not man……. no matter how rough a storm or how deep the cold. Piss off imposters!!!!
I would really appreciate some comments on this. Thank you
http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/W-5/page-1.html
Believe it now?
I came across tis many years ago in a men’s mag. With a slight change it fits today. PHILOSOPHY is like searching for a black cat in a dark alley at midnight. THEOLOGY is like searching in a dark alley for a black cat that isn’t there. CLIMATE WARMISTS are searching in a dark alley at midnight for a black cat that isn’t there, shouting all the while “I’ve got it, I’ve got it, I’ve got it.”
Still waiting for someone here to bring up the massive project on magnetic reconnection that is going on now. Maybe it was and I missed it? The way I see it, magnetic reconnection is not likely to occur anytime in the near future due to the lack of sufficient solar forcing ( been this way for about 8 years). Nevertheless, massive amounts of money is going toward launching instruments to attempt to measure it. Magnetic reconnection basically involves the breach in the earths magnetosphere allowing a massive influx of solar energy into earths atmosphere. No global warming advocate has the cohones to bring this up in conversation, yet a lot of money is being spent to investigate it….most likely in vain for reasons mentioned above. My personal belief is the onset of the last solar minimum brought an end to magnetic reconnection until the sun re-enters a higher state of activity. My belief on “the pause” is that heat from the oceans have been bolstering temperatures for the last 6 to 7 years after temps finished stabilizing from the grand maximum. I believe that ocean heat is about dissipated as the anticipated El Niño has minimal effect. If my calculations are correct, in 2-4 years… climate change will be settled science – primarily solar driven.
Thanks for the work and contributions here folks…. It’s fun to read.
luysii says:
August 15, 2014 at 4:57 pm
Here in New England, July and August so far have seemed unusually cool (to me). Is it? I’ve seen nothing in the press about this (assuming it’s true) as it would interfere with their narrative. Any thoughts?
I’d say the same for southern New York. If not exceptionally cool then at least below norm.
I’ve posted before about a late blooming of things that flower. I’ll add that sensate temperatures haven’t always matched measured (official) temperatures.
kenin
I believe the “salting” of the ocean with iron oxides to stimulate the production of plankton to assist in the restoration of salmon fisheries qualifies as a climate change modifying experiment that felt the wrath of the Canadian Council. If I read the post correctly, the fish supply increased as the plankton increase since the plankton fed the fodder fish which in turn fed the salmon which in turn allowed an increase in salmon harvested. A trivial by-product of the experiment was to decrease atmospheric CO2 which was gobbled up by the plankton. My understanding, the Canadian Council was incensed at the loss of CO2 without their permission. CO2 measurements weren’t obtained since the experiment was to gain fish, but, since the Canadian Council perceived a CO2 modifying effect, and especially without their convent, which they wouldn’t have given, they shut down the operation of “salting” the oceans to ensure that their authority and jurisdiction was maintained. Vi va la Canada. Government rules!
Robert Bissett says:
August 15, 2014 at 5:18 pm
See:
http://blogcritics.org/atmospheric-oxygen-levels-fall-as-carbon/
“Since the beginning of the industrial revolution we have removed .095% of the oxygen in our atmosphere.”
A Climate Crusader’s Comeuppance
You guys with all the cold weather up there….the leaves on your trees are already turning for fall
Experts: Record Cold Summer Leads To Changing Leaves In August
PITTSBURGH (KDKA)- Pittsburgh is dealing with one of the coldest summers in history, and it’s having an effect on the trees.
Friday morning temperatures fell into the 40s in Western Pennsylvania.
Meteorologists say these cold temperatures are leading to trees changing colors in the middle of August.
http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2014/08/15/experts-cold-summer-leads-to-changing-leaves-in-august/
two ideas
– how about a cartoon: a man on the street wearing a sandwich board which reads “I have been told the end is nigh”
– in 2008 Obama’s acceptance speech final paragraph had “this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal”, which resonated hugely with those that voted for him. –My point is, maybe we could keep pointing out the craziness/bad science of this (since the oceans rise throughout interglacials and when that slows or stops that almost surely means some kind of ice age). Maybe go for the core of their fantasy archetypes.
David L. Hagen says:
August 15, 2014 at 6:14 pm
There are limits to the power of money in politics. The number of candidates who have been able literally to buy their offices is relatively small. Corzine comes to mind.
Were it otherwise, then we wouldn’t need elections. The candidate with the most money would be declared the winner.
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, is a good movie! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34x6m-ahGIo
……… well this IS an open thread…….
I have been trying to make the point about the link between CO2 and OLR for some time without much success. Falling OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) is not a symptom or prediction of AGW theory; IT IS THE AGW THEORY. Indeed the most succinct defintion of AGW would be “rising CO2 drives down OLR”. CO2 only causes warming by reducing energy loss to space ie; driving down OLR; thus causing earth to retain more energy and warm. Yet between 1970 and 2010 according to NOAA OLR has been rising not falling. If OLR is rising instead of falling while CO2 is rising then either AGW is incorrect or something else is exerting a dominant reverse effect in which case man’s use of fossil fuels is far from the dominant impact on our climate. One can’t simply argue that OLR is rising because Earth’s temperature is rising because, in that case, what is driving further warming? The planet only warms while energy input exceeds energy loss and if the energy loss is increasing not reducing there is no energy imbalance to drive further warming.
This is not just a falsified prediction. I repeat falling OLR as CO2 rises IS the AGW theory. The finding of rising OLR coupled with rising CO2 entirely by itself falsifies the AGW theory.
Across the US Southeast (Alabama, GA, SC, NC) mountains, it has been a very cool summer compared to every year since 1985.
Can’t tell if that last storm coming east through Alabama two days ago was the last of the spring cold fronts, or the first of the coming winter cold fronts.
14 Aug: MLive Michigan: Better close your windows tonight or grab a blanket; Here’s why
We better close our windows before we go to bed tonight, or put a blanket on the bed.
It is going to be a cold night for the middle of August…
Most spots will cool down well into the 40s. A few spots may get as cold as the upper 30s…
If you leave your windows open in your bedroom tonight, you may have a dream that you are freezing. Your dream my come true.
http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/08/better_close_your_windows_toni.html#incart_2box
14 Aug: UK Telegraph: UK weather: Wrap up, big chill on the way in Bertha’s wake
Temperatures are expected to plunge this weekend as the Bertha weather system brings down cold air from Scandinavia in its trail
Temperatures are expected to plunge across the country with chilly winds pushing the mercury close to freezing…
The Met Office said the mercury could drop as low as 2C (35.6F) in Scotland by Monday, with English lows of around 8C (46.4F) in Cumbria and the Lake District…
Leon Brown, forecaster for The Weather Channel, said the cooler outlook is partly due to a shift in position of the jet stream.
He said the cold flow of air could remain in place for up to a fortnight, dampening hopes for a warm and sunny August Bank Holiday.
He said: “We are entering a cool phase of weather across the UK, and for that matter also much of northern and central Europe…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11034528/UK-weather-Wrap-up-big-chill-on-the-way-in-Berthas-wake.html
David L. Hagen says:
August 15, 2014 at 6:14 pm
A Climate Crusader’s Comeuppance
Isn’t there some kind of a law against being able to brush democracy aside and buy candidates?
I’ve noticed much of this summer than there has been considerable rainfall in Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, Arizona. We used to hear a lot about the falling water table in the Ogalla aquifer and that irrigation from aquifers in general are contributing to sea level rise. Well it seems to me that this year, we must be recharging the Ogalla and southwest aquifers big time, while at the same time, not having to draw appreciable water in this relative abundance from the skies. Anyone have any data on this – it would make a good post.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer
This, today’s image, is even less than typical over the past half a year or so.
http://www.intelliweather.com/popup/nat_rad_popup.htm
One of D. Archibald’s graphs did indicate that this would be “the year” for the big cool down for the U.S./Canadian border.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/archibald_2050_fig6.png
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/13/archibald-climate-forecast-to-2050/