Story submitted by Eric Worrall
North Carolina has just outlawed the use of long term sea level predictions, when making planning decisions for sea front developments in the Outer Banks.
The new rules restrict planning applications to the use of 30 year sea level rise predictions – and forbid the use of predictions for longer timeframes.
The controversy started 5 years ago, when North Carolina State Scientists predicted that in 100 years, sea levels would rise by more than a metre. This caused uproar from owners of billions of dollars worth of valuable sea front properties, the value of which would be adversely affected by a 1m SLR.
Willo Kelly, of the N20 Consortium, accuses the North Carolina State Scientists who produced the 100 year prediction, of not conducting scientific research, and suggests they instead conducted a biased literary review of cherry picked information, to produce an unbalanced report.
Climate Scientist Orrin Pilke, interviewed at the end of the video, accuses North Carolina residents and politicians opposed to the use of 100 year predictions of “living in denial”.
Source: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/north-carolinas-outer-banks-ban-rising-seas-042402453.html
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Scientists predicted .. in 100 years, sea levels would rise .. a metre. This caused uproar from owners .. of .. sea front properties, the value .. adversely affected by a 1m SLR.
Even if true, what does it have to do with state ploitics? What legislation could be impemented at state level to 1) stop the sea, or 2) save the properties?
Last line: Pot – meet Kettle.
Pfft – 100 year projections… how ridiculous.
We need far, far more of this kind of thing – ban and outlaw the entire Junk Science climate industry. Stop the massive waste and what is essentially the voluntary dismantling of our entire civilization. Just make it end.
Lets face it, it is the alarmists who are living in denial that their vigilante boondoggle/scam is just that and that while we humans must have some effect on climate and the environment locally and even globally it is not an existential threat or anywhere near it. What is more they are in utter denial that increased CO2 may be the precise opposite of a pollutant/toxin but rather an essential ingredient for a world population of 7 Billion and climbing with a rising standard of living. Maybe Gaia is playing a long game and actually knows WTF is happening and it is all under control despite what the back seat driver loons say.
Lead the Way North Carolina.
Professor Orrin Pilkey: All up and down the East Coast, Gulf Coast and West Coast it’s all the same….
Really, Professor, you should know better.
Better yet have the climate ‘scientists’ such as Orrin Pilke, make their predictions for sea level rise as yearly levels with detailed metrics against a fixed standard tide gauge. So by 2016 the level will be (n millimeters) measured on the standard fixed tide gauge. Then set into law that they personally (their heirs and successors) and their named institutions (current and future) are liable for damages to be paid to the owners of sea front properties should the level be incorrect by more than say 2mm and the property values be affected.
Having to take responsibility for their forecasts may make them a little more conservative in their claims.
At the time those NC State profs made that prediction NC State was where the federally funded ed lab for the SouthEast dedicated to using K-12 education for behavioral change was located. It has since moved to Florida State where it can have a similar skewing effect as the philosophy behind Education for Sustainability taints entire faculty’s drives over what to advocate for and ‘research’ into.
Those 100 year predictions to gain short term behavioral changes and new public policy inadvertently (but foreseeably in the real world) impacted the costs of insurance in the preferred beach vacation areas of the state legislators. They are now doing something about that. Restricting what can be cited in a rate adjustment proposal. It’s always a matter of whose ox is being gored.
The scientists will pobably respond by tweaking the models to show a 1 metre rise in 30 years
“What legislation could be impemented at state level to 1) stop the sea, or 2) save the properties?”
1) Cue Maggie Smith: “how I sympathize with King Canute”
2) you are kidding aren’t you. the AGW crowd descends from the quintessential environmentalist anti-development meme. so they will ‘save’ the properties by preventing owners from actually building them to begin with. this nonsense about subjecting government planning rituals to accounting for ‘climate change’ is part an parcel of what exponents of climate change hope to accomplish.
Interesting. We’ve been coming to OBX since 1965. I’m currently sitting on the deck of my father-inlaw’s OBX beach house, looking at a bulkhead in the sound that was installed in 1989. We measured the height of the bulkhead relative to low tide and it’s no less than he recorded in 1989.
True Believers on the site where I repost articles such as this one, are calling those who voted for this, ‘anti-science.’ Of course, they don’t bother to look at the data even if you shove the information u[self-snipped]es.
Sea level currently increases by ~2.8 mm per year. If that rate were to double over 50 years (which is very doubtful) then total rise over 100 years would be under half a meter. More plausible is between 350 and 450 mm. Even the IPCC has discounted the likelihood of meter+ increases over a century, most of which were nutty ‘semi-empirical’ projections by Stefan Rahmstorf and his lackeys…. utter rubbish all. Whoever the ‘scientists’ were that projected 1 meter increases, they did not actually look at reality, or even conduct a literature review that includes the more likely increase rates. The answer is to hire better scientists, not pass laws against making sea level projections.
Making 100 year “irrefutable” predictions on CAGW affected tides, when all the accepted models have been proven to be 100% wrong for the last 17 years, now that is what I call science NOT!
Even if his preictions were accurate GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS, exactly why is he assuming
those conditions will stay the same for the next 100 years? That’s the most implausible
prediction of all. What, no electric cars in the next 100 years? No fast reactors? Boy. is this guy pessimistic!!!!
So he’s also assuming his side has no success?
Every 20-30 years a major hurricane comes along and hits the “reset” button on the Outer Banks anyway.
It seems news gets to England via wooden sailing ships. The story is two years old.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/north-carolina-bans-latest-science-rising-sea-level/story?id=16913782
If I recall correctly they are going to use the past rise in sea level to predict for the next thirty years, which sounds like the most logical thing to do. Sanity is prevailing in North Carolina.
Waterfront property is the most lucrative of all so one is immediately suspicious. The price plummets due to alarmist claims. The local authorities institute a “buyback” but then own it all. Water levels of course don’t rise and presto…….somebody gets incredibly rich.
Um – of course nowhere in the developed world have any politicians enacted crap that pushes current owners off of their oceanfront properties so that they, the pols, can swoop in and grab same at fire-sale prices. Oh, New Zealand you say? Australia? Anyone look at the Green Shores program in the Pacific NW of the USA?
As an engineer I am accountable for my work. I can lose my life savings with a bad recommendation. That is a strong incentive to do things right. Get an engineer to make some recommendations.
De Nile is a good place to live… as long as you’re not part of the Muslim Brotherhood.
What the climate “scientists” say: “You are living in denial”.
What they actually mean: http://www.hark.com/clips/kykckcpmfh-silence-whippersnapper
So we have skeptical “denial” (the scientific norm) vs biased confirmation based on selected data provided by global warming religious fanatics. I’ll take the former any day.
What I find amazing about this… is the discovery, of some common sense, on the continent. And here I was beginning to think it was extinct. Color me surprised, however, building on flood plains and seashores subject to storm surges will remain risky/foolish. We should not have to subsidize insurance for such risk takers. GK
I’d think the more likely impact on sea side property in North Carolina would be due to a hurricane or tropical storm. They appear to be averaging about 150 of those every 100 years.
This is the same prediction they were making in the mid-1980’s. I recall a 1986 paper by James G. Titus on the impact a rise of one meter (2-5 feet) would have on the coastal zone.
Now, more than a quarter century later, this prediction is clearly not panning out. So, what do the alarmists do? Reset the clock. It’ll be a meter in the next 100 years.
As you all know, there’s no sign of sea level rise accelerating.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/