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 Celebrate it at the 9th International Heartland Conference, Las Vegas

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

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Don’t miss this spectacular conference in the City of American Culture 2014. The Ninth International Heartland Conference on Climate Change is the biggest and best of all the skeptical conferences. And it is being held at a vital moment.

It is now evident to every honest scientist that the official estimates of climate sensitivity on the basis of which governments are squandering trillions are exaggerations. Yet governments – particularly on the hard Left – are doubling down on robbing taxpayers and regulating out of existence their political opponents’ principal funders, the fossil-fuel corporations.

Climate-extremist governments are going for broke – or, rather, going for making you and me broke – because they, too, know perfectly well by now that our effect on the climate is insufficient to be actually or potentially dangerous. But, after all their bilious, whining rhetoric about the urgent need to Save The Planet, they cannot be seen to have been entirely wrong. The daylight must not be let in on the magic. Ignore the man behind the curtain. Pay no attention to any evidence from the real world.

The only escape from the humiliation that Leftist governments and their cronies in academe, the scientific community, and the news media will otherwise inevitably face is to bully and cajole non-Left governments into collective action to cut CO2 concentrations worldwide. Then, when global temperature fails to rise as they now know it will fail to rise, they will claim that their CO2 reductions Saved The Planet, when the Planet was not at risk in the first place. It is a simple but wicked strategy, which will never be described, still less challenged, in the Marxstream news media.

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They may yet get away with it. In Paris next year (if they do not succeed in catching us by surprise this year), they will hope to persuade governments to sign up to a binding climate treaty in all material respects indistinguishable from that which was defeated at Copenhagen.

All the people who may yet stop them will be in Las Vegas. Will you be among them? If so, you will need to reserve your room at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino at once. The closing date for the special rate of $80 (suites $100) a night plus taxes is Tuesday, June 10. More details at Heartland.com. Be there or be square.

If you want a flutter at the tables, Mandalay Bay is part of the group that has the largest floor space for pit games in town. If you’re not a mathematician, the one thing you need to know is what the game theorists colorfully but aptly call the “mean expected duration until ruin”. It is the number of unit stakes in your starting capital, divided by the house edge (known locally as the “vig”, after the Yiddish word vyiguryish, winnings).

At American roulette, for instance, the vig is 5.3%. If your capital is $1000 and your mean stake is $10, you have 100 staking units. Divide this by 5.3% and your mean expected duration until ruin is 1900 spins of the wheel (often known as “coups” in Monte Carlo or, bizarrely, as “hands” in Vegas.

Though the proof that the mean expected duration until ruin is simply the staking units in your capital divided by the vig is quite complicated, it is a well established result in probability theory. From that result, one can readily demonstrate that, in any casino game with a table staking limit, no system based on varying the stakes (e.g. by continuous doubling) leads to a positive expectation for the player where there is a house edge. The proof consists in treating all stakes at each staking level as a separate game with an expected duration until ruin based on the multiple of that particular stake represented by the starting capital, divided by the vig.

To win, therefore, one needs to turn the vig to one’s favour. One can do this by counting cards at blackjack, which, however, takes guts, skill, long practice, and a considerable theatrical ability to disguise the fact that one is card-counting. My own method, when I was young enough to get away with it, was to chat up the female dealers. That worked every time. I didn’t make a lot, because the casinos would have noticed, and I had to stop doing it when I joined Ten Downing Street.

The casinos have known blackjack can be beaten by a skilled player since the 1950s, when Edward Oakley Thorp, a math professor, published his famous book Beat The Dealer.

Casinos continue to offer blackjack because, although the vig in a game that allows early surrender, dealer peeking, resplit, and double after split can be as small as 0.4% – just about the best one can find at any casino game – the number of players who have the guts to follow the correct basic strategy, which often involves drawing cards or even doubling down when instinct would suggest standing, is very small. The house edge against unskilled or cowardly blackjack players is very large.

Another reason to go to Vegas is that it has gradually become the world’s capital of magic. David Copperfield is at the MGM Grand, and will become the world’s first magician billionaire this year or next. Penn and Teller also have a long-standing Vegas show. If the mood is right, I may even start my own speech – at lunchtime on the last day of the conference – with a simple but baffling illusion.

I have recently been developing various illusions never before attempted, and am putting the finishing touches to a remarkable way to make the moon disappear from the sky – or, as it is known in the trade, to “vanish” the moon. As far as I know, the largest object “vanished” so far is the Statue of Liberty.

The moon is a far more difficult proposition, and the set-up costs would be the most expensive for any illusion not developed for use in warfare [“All warfare is deception” – Sun Tzu]. But, for the privileged few who would pay a lot of money for the experience, it would be utterly unforgettable – and utterly impenetrable.

At one level, the very existence of Las Vegas – not just a gambling joint but the whole hog – is a paradigm of what we are up against in the climate debate – the exploitation by the well-organized few of the insufficiently educated many.

At Harrow, under the wise headmaster Dr James, we were all taught elementary probability theory just at the point where we might be tempted to show what lads we were by ruining ourselves putting bets on at the casinos or, worse, with the bookies, whose vig is a crippling 20% at major races.

My math master, Sir Alan Outram, an unassuming baronet, taught us all how to calculate the bookies’ overround. At one stage they were getting away with 80% at a local point-to-point racecourse.

In a casino, the vig is related to the fraction of the drop (i.e. total buy-in) that the house holds. At American or double-zero roulette, for instance, the vig is 5.3%, but the fraction of the drop held by the house works out at around 25% because of staking and restaking by the players as they work their way along the curve of mean expectation until ruin.

My late beloved father’s housemaster discovered he was putting money on the bookies and shrewdly ordered him, for the rest of that term, to place bets with him instead, at the odds quoted by the bookies.

My father was horrified to discover how much he owed his housemaster at the end of the term. He never gambled systematically again. He was never taught the math, but he was taught a lesson.

Later in life, he was offered the post of head of security at a prominent casino in London. He turned an enormous salary down flat when the then owner of the club offered to pay him half his salary across the tables by way of “winnings” as a way of avoiding tax. A decade or so later, the club’s gambling licence was revoked for alleged irregularities.

In Nevada, if you win big the house is obliged to deduct a swingeing withholding tax. In the UK, if you work or save you are taxed, but if you gamble your winnings – however large – are completely tax-free.

See you in Vegas – and, unless you want to buy me a beer, leave your cash at home.

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To register, go here

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71 thoughts on “End of an error

  1. I’ll be there. BTW, it looks like the hotel also charges a $25 “resort fee” that covers rather basic stuff like internet access.

  2. doubling down on robbing taxpayers

    Time to associate the leadership faces of Greenpeace, NRDC, WWF, the Sierra Club, and so forth with the label, “The New Robber Barons.”

    The re-assignment of a classic anti-capitalist icon to the eNGO leadership ought to particularly gall the eco-pious.

  3. You won’t like the beer – its cold.

  4. > I have recently been developing various illusions never before attempted, and am putting the finishing touches to a remarkable way to make the moon disappear from the sky.

    The average high temperature in Las Vegas in early July is 102°F. If you can vanish (vanquish?) the sun for the duration of the conference I’d be most appreciative.

  5. “Then, when global temperature fails to rise as they now know it will fail to rise, they will claim that their CO2 reductions Saved The Planet, when the Planet was not at risk in the first place.:

    This kind of paranoid, paradigmatic thinking is no better than the Left insisting that skeptics are all in the pay of big oil. Plays well with the WUWT readership, but is that your only goal? There’s no good reason to think that Obama for example, isn’t wholly convinced that he’s on the side of the angels. Of course he’s appallingly ignorant, but that’s a far cry from the knowing cynicism you’re suggesting.

  6. ” Pay no attention to any evidence from the real world.”

    There is a 97% consensus amongst climatologists that the real world does not exist. “The Science” is settled.

    We must act now to save their models.

  7. Say what ?
    I made 15 bets at 3 different racetracks in the United States and Canada today.
    I bet $60.00 and won $73.80.
    Granted, most days, the figures are reversed.
    The betting at Belmont, tomorrow, will be fun.
    I’ve settled that already.

  8. They picked a very BAD time of the year to have a conference in Vegas – depending on which weather report one looks at, we’ll be between about 104 to 108 within the next few days – and by July, there’s no telling what the temps will be – wouldn’t be all that unusual for it to be over 110, or even 115 – with nighttime lows sometimes still around 100.

    But hey, at least it’s a dry heat!

  9. @ Ric Werme says: June 6, 2014 at 6:48 pm

    The average high temperature in Las Vegas in early July is 102°F. If you can vanish (vanquish?) the sun for the duration of the conference I’d be most appreciative.

    102 actually isn’t all that bad here because it’s so dry – but you can count on some added UHI on the strip – along with added humidity there too from all the different fountains, etc. I’d take 100 here over 90 back east or in the southeast pretty much any time.

    But when you get to about 110 or higher, that’s just blast furnace temps – and not at all uncommon here in the summer.

    Fat chance disappearing the sun too – we get more days of sunshine here than almost anywhere else in the nation. After the monsoon hits, there can be thunderstorms around which can give some shade – but then you also get more humidity too (still dry compared to most places however, it’s just in this kind of heat, even small increases in humidity are pretty darned noticeable).

    There are a lot of fun things to do in Vegas, however, spectacular shows, etc., – and some great food too. Just beware of the cheap or even moderate priced buffets – some can be really good, others everything can taste like cardboard.

    Just a shame it wasn’t being held during a more moderate time of the year, when folks would be a lot more comfortable outside, and might want to do some hiking/boulder scrambling/rock climbing, see some great state parks nearby, hoover dam, etc. Even indoor skydiving. But in July the heat is often pretty prohibitive, and early July usually too soon for monsoon, so it’s full bore sun, sun, sun… and avoid grabbing anything metal outside – that can be downright painful.

  10. GREAT SCOTT

    [Jabs at the intercom button] Miss Moneypenny, please clear the schedule for July 5 through 9 ASAP.

    [Miss Moneypenny] Right on that James. Heartland is having a ConFab in Vegas of course and the tables and Veg do look scrumptious.

    [James] That’s my Miss Moneypenny !

  11. I had a great run with roulette back in the early 1970s. I was in Reno Nevada with my brother and his friend. The two of them had some money to burn. I only had about 50 or 60 dollars to play with and lost that at blackjack. Then my brother kept spotting me money until I had burned up $500 of his ammunition. At that point, I was going to give up but he gave me 30 dollars and suggested roulette to pass the time. The roulette tables still had penny bets back then for play in the field. This was the first time that I had ever played roulette at a casino. In about 5 or 6 hours, I payed my brother back all the money which I had lost at blackjack. In another 3 hours after that, I went up close to 900 dollars ahead. I had developed an interesting way to look at the table. Ever since that first time, I have always been able to have fun at a roulette table.

  12. What bracing oratorical wizardry from Lord Monckton! From maths and probability, to the fun of entertainment, and sordid business of political science. “Marxstream” media throws me a new one. And the parallels of the global warming hustle to American hustle are laid bare.

    “Don’t miss this spectacular conference in the City of American Culture 2014. The Ninth International Heartland Conference on Climate Change is the biggest and best of all the skeptical conferences. And it is being held at a vital moment.” Indeed – and I love the Lord’s solid connection of “Sin City” with American Culture.

    Less than a decade ago, the Western History Association held its annual conference at the historic Riviera Casino, and I was delighted to present a paper on film noir – “black film” in French, perhaps best understood as the uniquely American crime and murder mystery genre. The connection to Vegas was this: Vegas stirs late at night, like Barcelona. Very late. Starting up at 10 to 12 midnight – long after the conference proceedings are done. The dark of night!

    And this is also where the scam of global warming has been conducted – under the cloak and dagger of politically contrives authority, not real science. How they soon will swelter like an egg on the Strip under the summer afternoon Vegas sun! (Which is also the name of the influential Las Vegas newspaper that is not at all “Marxstream” – The Las Vegas Sun.)

    So, finally, to add to Lord Monckton’s rousing invitation, I can only add this. If you want to play blackjack, smart players will have to leave the Strip. On the famous Strip, they all use multiple decks which defeats card counting. But if one heads out to Old downtown Las Vegas, one can be considerably more successful using mathematical acumen and management skills.

    And – isn’t what draws us here? And why WUWTs viewer pages numbers outgross the stalwart online science establishment’s like “Discover” magazines? Yes it is. Different and better.

  13. You can’t get away with distracting the dealer anymore. All of the big casinos have automated systems that track your betting patterns and can detect card counting even better than skilled dealers could.
    I helped program several of them.

  14. Alas, I just was “terminated” from a 6 month contract job, after a mere two months.

    I’m planning on putting my nice Minnetonka MN house up for sale, and moving to a double wide (my Mother’s, RIP, Feb 2014) in PHX AZ. I am, unfortunately 61 years old. I am an Engineer, and “with it” modern technology wise..but I am also a realist employment wise. (I.e., using the Las Vegas language “slim” to none, my chances of gainful employment…shall we say??) However, I’m looking at the GOOD LORD’s proclamation and thinking that, if I can carry the budget right (perhaps drive there? Share a room?) we might have a SMASHING jolly good time! And to meet the GOOD LORD, and take his hand, would be “a foretaste of Glory Divine”. Let’s see if this will work out.

  15. Also, some Video Poker games in Vegas have a payout of slightly more than 100%, assuming that you know the exact strategy for that game, and do not make mistakes. The best-known are full-pay Deuces Wild, at 100.76%, and full-pay Double Bonus, at 100.17%. But you won’t find any such high-paying games at the Mandalay Bay, or anywhere on the strip. You have to go off-strip, to certain Station casinos, or downtown, or locals casinos. More info: http://www.vpfree2.com/casinos/by-region/las-vegas.html

  16. From the good lord above … 8<)

    Though the proof that the mean expected duration until ruin is simply the staking units in your capital divided by the vig is quite complicated, it is a well established result in probability theory. From that result, one can readily demonstrate that, in any casino game with a table staking limit, no system based on varying the stakes (e.g. by continuous doubling) leads to a positive expectation for the player where there is a house edge.

    We “played” every casino on the Las Vegas main highway one year with a simple rule: Walk in with 2.00 dollars in quarters, stop at a convenient slot machine, play the first quarter, … keep playing either the winnings from that quarter or or a replacement quarter until the whole 2.00 was gone. Then stop playing.

    Sure enough, just a predicted above, we lost our $2.00 in every casino, in every hotel, and in every place we entered. Some took a bit longer than others, but we lost our $2.00 every time.

    But we did get to see every casino, to play in every one, and to enjoy the sites and fun at every place while waiting for the next act or show to start. And that the best game of all.

  17. Card counting illegal? What do they mean by this? It is an integral part of Bridge, Poker and 21 (black Jack) Not sure about black jack. I’ve played all in private of course. In poker they don’t shuffle the cards ever. Well we don’t and the same in Bridge of course. If you have a good brain to remember what has gone before, or how many trumps are out in comparison to what you or your partner holds. Is part of the game. Anyway these casinos are not out to give away money. Buy a lottery ticket for $2 you have more hope of winning if they only sell 250,000 tickets.

  18. A kindle edition is $8 of this book:
    INNER VEGAS: Creating Miracles, Abundance, and Health by Joe Gallenberger

    Customer review snippet:
    “. . . for years Joe has also been doing the unthinkable — succesfully challenging the Mecca of possibilities, the gaming tables and slot machines of Las Vegas.

    “I can vouch for the truth of this without doubt or hesitation because I was there and saw it with my own eyes. I’ve witnessed Joe and his students easily creating outcomes I would previously have deemed virtually impossible, and they did it time after time.”

    Worth a try (?)

  19. rogerknights;
    Worth a try (?)
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    You’d get better value by giving the price of the book to a charity. At least that way you can say your money accomplished some good.

  20. here’s some bright news to impart at the Conference!

    6 June: BBC: Matt McGrath: Upset at UN climate talks as ministers go missing
    Negotiators and campaigners have reacted angrily to the failure of many environment ministers to attend UN talks in Bonn.
    They say governments gave an undertaking last year to come here and update plans to cut emissions.
    But so far, around 50 ministers have turned up, with representatives from the UK, France and Brazil notably absent.
    Over 130 turned up in Warsaw for the last major talks session…
    But campaigners here say an undertaking was given at the COP in Doha in 2012 that ministers would meet here in Bonn and review their commitments to the Kyoto Protocol…
    Mohammed Adow from Christian Aid: “It undermines their commitment to craft a global deal when they don’t show up, it sends a distressing signal.”…
    Activists staged a small demonstration in the conference centre to highlight the lack of ministers in attendance.
    According to Ambassador Jumeau, many of those who did come had no new commitments on emissions or climate finance to show in their presentations.
    “I think what we saw on the screens and the lack of ministers goes together. They didn’t have anything to put up there or they were ashamed to do it.”
    Other observers speculated that countries were keeping back announcements for the special conference being called by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon in New York in September.
    Ministers from some of the most significant economies like Brazil, India and South Africa didn’t travel. Neither did those from the US, UK or France…

    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27726510

    it’s so bad in Bonn, BBC’s McGrath has to resort to reporting this!

    7 Dec: BBC: Matt McGrath: Climate change helps seas disturb Japanese war dead
    Rising sea levels have disturbed the skeletons of soldiers killed on the Marshall Islands during World War Two.
    Speaking at UN climate talks in Bonn, the Island’s foreign minister said that high tides had exposed one grave with 26 dead.
    The minister said the bones were most likely those of Japanese troops…
    “These last spring tides in February to April this year have caused not just inundation and flooding of communities but have also undermined regular land, so that even the dead are affected,” said foreign minister Tony De Brum, speaking on the sidelines of the UN climate negotiations.
    “There are coffins and dead people being washed away from graves, it’s that serious.”…

    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27742957

  21. it will all end with this stoush, so don’t budge folks. our promise was as phony as the CAGW “science”:

    6 June: Reuters: Alister Doyle: China says aid a key to climate deal, not just CO2 cuts
    Promised aid of $100 bln/yr said key to UN climate pact
    China, EU disagree over legal conditions for money
    BONN, Germany, June 6 (Reuters) – China led calls by emerging economies on Friday for the rich to raise financial aid to the poor as a precondition for a United Nations deal to combat global warming…
    “When the financing is resolved, this will set a very good foundation to negotiate a good agreement,” China’s chief negotiator Xie Zhenhua told delegates from about 170 nations…
    Xie said developed nations, which have promised to raise aid to $100 billion a year by 2020, should have legally binding obligations to provide finance and technology to emerging economies, along with legally binding cuts in emissions.
    But European Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said it would be hard to treat promises for cash in the same legal way as cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases.
    “More than one finance minister would say: ‘how are we going to do that?’” she told a news conference…
    Developed nations agreed in 2009 to raise aid to developing nations to the $100 billion target by 2020 from an initial $10 billion a year from 2010-12.
    But austerity cuts in many nations mean they have not set clear milestones for raising aid between 2012 and 2019, money meant to go to everything from expanding the use of solar power plants to flood defences along vulnerable coastlines.
    Last month, a “Green Climate Fund” – a U.N. body based in South Korea due to channel billions of dollars to developing nations – said it was ready to start accepting cash after agreeing details of how it will work.
    Donors will also meet in July, in a venue yet to be decided.
    Peru’s Environment Minister Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, who will host a U.N. climate conference in late 2014, said he hoped for contributions for the Green Climate Fund of $10 billion this year.
    Alix Masounie, of the French branch of international environmental network Climate Action Network, said: “The Green Climate Fund is finally open for business … but it remains an empty shell,” adding that developed nations should come up with $15 billion as a first payment.
    Berlin said on Friday it would provide cash, but gave no details…
    Rich nations say the private sector is most promising. “We should use public resources to mobilise far greater sums of private finance,” said Trigg Talley, the U.S. representative…

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/06/idUKL6N0ON2WS20140606

  22. And they reckon the Green Climate Fund will save the planet? Robbing the rich/poor of developed countries to give to the rich/poor of underdeveloped countries. Gee, I give up.

  23. “There’s no good reason to think that Obama for example, isn’t wholly convinced that he’s on the side of the angels.”
    ……………………….
    That’s laughable, recall Bengazi, Obamacare, and Bergdahl as examples of Obama’s mendacity.

  24. Living in Las Vegas myself, I won’t miss the opportunity to attend this event (and buy Lord Monckton a beer if he would permit).

  25. Andrew, the web address to Heartland Institute is Heartland.org. In the sixth paragraph of Lord Monckton’s article it is incorrectly given as Heartland.com.

  26. Argggggh. Sorry, I meant Anthony. I’ve been dialoging with my best friend Andrew and had his name stuck in my mind.

  27. First off, my accoldes to Lord Monckton for his as usual ebullient and unmatchable oratory.

    Next, bushbunny says:
    June 6, 2014 at 9:06 pm

    Card counting illegal? What do they mean by this?

    Thanks, bushbunny. Actually, it’s not illegal … but the casinos will assuredly blackball you from their casino and circulate your photograph to all the other casinos where you will be blackballed as well. There is no “right to gamble”.

    w.

  28. Max Hugoson As a refugee that moved down to Arizona a few years back and now live in Mesa, come down to visit out development is a 55 and old with at least thirty to forty homes for sale the you own you own lot and the double vary from 80,000 to about 150,000. The stick built run from 150,000 on up to a little over 300,000. Most the older manufactured homes are being replaced with stick build, we do have a golf course running thorough out the lots on the course have a 25,000 to 50,000 premium in the price, a couple years ago it was 10,000 to 15,000. If you get down here to Mesa look up Apache Wells you might find something to your like. As far as Las Vegas goes, I am tempted but I have all ready made my annual Las Vegas trip and it would be fun to meet you Lord Monckton and yes I would by you a beer although I am a bit of a beer snob. I won’t touch most of the large america brewery swill. As far as gambling goes It seem last time I was there my loses were about five dollars and I had no winnings, We did go to the Blue Man group for a show and it was great, Pen & teller also put on a good show.

  29. bushbunny says:
    June 6, 2014 at 9:06 pm

    Card counting illegal? What do they mean by this?

    It goes like this.
    IF a single deck of cards is used in blackjack, then – as the cards are dealt out, they are visible, right?
    So a “very skillful” player would be able to see all of the dealt-out cards previously played, know that those are NOT going to be able to be used again, and thus forecast what cards are left in the deck – but unseen.
    So, that same “card-counting” player would then change his/her prediction of what cards are left unknown in the deck, what cards are on the table right now, and thus begin to be able to predict what cards “might” be more likely to be coming up in future deals from the deck, right?

    Nothing illegal, unethical, immoral, or fattening so far – right? Just a good memory and fast eyes.

    Now, a 52-card deck is – after all- easy to count – even if only by hand. So teh casino’s early on started using 2 decks, then 3 decks, tehn 3-4 decks and re-shuffling early on in the card-couting era. (Early 50’s ??? mid 60’s ??)

    Early “cheaters” caught on to this multi-deck scheme and invented toe-operated computer keyboards and hand-in-pants computer counter links to keep track of more cards and more decks automatically by radio and very, very easrly wireless. THAT “extra-legal” behavior is what allowed/made/influenced the casino’s to force Las Vegas Nevada legislatures to write laws making card-counting illegal.

    The card-counters were winning too much.

  30. michaelwiseguy says:
    June 6, 2014 at 10:23 pm

    I wonder who’s going to lose the bet, [but can] they […] control the population of the entire planet with their man-made global warming scam?

    I’m not sure how you wanted your message above to be issued, but let us assume it was as-changed.

    YES! They CAN control the planet through their scheme IF they ALSO control the media and the political “message” of their CAGW scheme/scam/propaganda.

    And, unfortunately, “YES” they DO control the mass ABCNNBBCBS media.

    (Now, I have to confess to our Aussie and Ozzie and Indian readers (China has “no” free media at all)
    … If the United States mass-monopoly of ABC, CNN, NBC, CBS, TV networks can so easily be added to the BBC’s abbreviation, how do I add the Canadian, Aussie, and New Zealand state-run media networks? )

  31. regulating out of existence their political opponents’ principal funders, the fossil-fuel corporations

    Is that a claim that sceptics are funded by fossil-fuel interests?

  32. Rational Db8 says:
    June 6, 2014 at 7:45 pm
    @ Ric Werme says: June 6, 2014 at 6:48 pm

    The average high temperature in Las Vegas in early July is 102°F. If you can vanish (vanquish?) the sun for the duration of the conference I’d be most appreciative.

    102 actually isn’t all that bad here because it’s so dry – but you can count on some added UHI on the strip – along with added humidity there too from all the different fountains, etc. I’d take 100 here over 90 back east or in the southeast pretty much any time.

    The word is enthalpy. Temperature does not measure the heat content of the atmosphere due to the presence of water vapor caring latent heat. Heat content of air should be measured in kilojoules per kilogram. The heat content of Las Vegas dry air at 100F is around half that of Louisiana bayou saturated air at 75F.

    CAGW hypothesis is based on heat being ‘trapped’ by ‘greenhouse gasses’ so the metric that should be used is kj/kg but that would immediately falsify the hypothesis, so instead they incorrectly use temperature as the metric and fiddle about with homogenization and TOB as a distraction.

  33. “Then, when global temperature fails to rise as they now know it will fail to rise…”

    No one honestly knows what will happen to temperatures going forward. They may rise, may continue to stand still, or may fall. The issue is whether man has a hand in any of this, and if so is this CO2 driven.

    One thing that may alter the die, is ENSO. If there is a repeat of the 1998 super El NIno with an associated step change in temperature, then for many a year, one can expect climate scientist to argue that the temperature change is of a consequence of the increase in CO2, and not the result of a wholly natural event in which man played no part. If there is a step change of 0.15 to 0.2degC then model projections will not appear that far apart from observed temperature anomalies. We should be looking closely at ENSO and any resultant step changes in temperature so that there is no slight of hand with the pea under the cup.

  34. I just posted this at Bishop Hill:

    After years of pulling my hair out at the endless stream of fake science purporting to prove Global Warming TM, and hoping that the integrity of its practioners will result in the hyopthesis being categorically refuted, I now see where the problem lies.

    The NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) and its overseas equivalents are corrupting science. They have such vast amounts of public treasure to throw around that its recipients have every interest in keeping the gravy train rolling and none in declaring Global Warming to be within millennia-old natural cycles. The Bishop’s quote above – “There is still plenty of great work ahead” – portrays this beautifully.

    This Climategate link was posted yesterday at the top of Christopher Mockton’s WUWT article on the coming Heartland Conference: http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=0014.txt&search=funding

    This confidential email shows the great sophistication of milking the public purse under a veneer of scientific enquiry, and I suspect that the author was distressed when it was leaked, only to find that his email with its revealing inverted commas made nary a ripple after Climategate. I recommend reading it: the MO of this great heist is revealed.

    A vist to the NERC website illustrates the process: they trumpet “£200m for new UK Polar Research Ship”. This vast sum will benefit a whole supply chain, from the lifejacket makers to the crew’s pension funds. What’s not to like? Well this: that same £200m put to good use, or left in the hands of the taxpayer, would be of greater benefit to the many. What are the chances of this latest Ship of Fools reporting record Antarctic ice, and the absence of Global Warming, and sailing her back to Pompey to be sold off?

    8 years ago, at a Nottingham Uni seminar, I witnessed the head of a different Research Council say, “Don’t come to me for a lousy million”. He had, IIRC, £120m to give away and was finding it hard to find enough takers.

    In summary, the idiots who gather our taxes and hand them out in mindboggling tranches to “good causes”, have created a culture as addictive as that of the narcotics industry. Only if senior politicians grasp this, and shut off the floodgates, will the ruinous Global Warming hoax collapse.

  35. Village idiot
    You are right that, to make a claim of zero, it is possible to keep changing the start date. If we have a cold period, the start date can be pushed backwards and if we have some warm months, shortening the period would still allow the zero claim to continue.

    But you are missing the big picture here. For a period approaching 2 decades, there hasn’t been any global warming as measured by these temp datasets. Its not about picking this month start point or that month. Its about the ridiculously obvious. The measured temps of these data sets have not increased as predicted. And if the temperatures haven’t risen, you can’t attribute any other effects to man made global warming. So to run around talking about increases in extreme weather (even if that were true, which it isn’t) as being a product of human induced climate change, is not just obviously wrong …. it’s ludicrous.

  36. Thanks Ric Werme: “The average high temperature in Las Vegas in early July is 102°F.”
    I seem to remember that, some 20 years ago, Paul Ehrlich suggested that humans had done pretty OK without air conditioning throughout history and therefore, as a superfluous producer of naughty gas, it was unnecessary.

    I hope the organisers are true to their principles.

  37. Paris hotel/casino is offering rooms for £23 a night… (Their breakfast buffet is something to behold – and you won’t need to eat for two days after it…!)

    Just sayin’…

  38. pokerguy says:
    June 6, 2014 at 6:49 pm

    Paranoia requires delusion. It isn’t paranoia if it’s true. And those bums have proven who they are and what they do for over a century. Millions of people are dead because of their power cravings. Millions more are living in tyranny so the masters can keep the masses down. It’s happening here, right now, and this climate paranoia (it is delusional) is just one more method being used to complete the power grab. Go along with their gambit if you think you will be a winner by taking part in it (a rude awakening awaits), or if you are gullible. I am being as nice and polite about this issue as I can be, because the nonsense threatens me and my family.

  39. The only card game I have ever played for money is three card brag, which has the peculiarities that the cards are never shuffled, and if a player goes blind – ie doesn’t bother to view their hand – the other players have to put in twice what the blind player stakes.

    Astonishingly, there is a never-ending supply of marks who are completely unaware of the implications of that, they bought me a huge amount of beer while I was at university..

  40. pokerguy says:
    June 6, 2014 at 6:49 pm
    “There’s no good reason to think that Obama for example,
    isn’t wholly convinced that he’s on the side of the angels.”

    Watch the facial expressions and eye movements, and
    say that Obama isn’t an utter shill for these extant frauds
    about the climate system and the role of CO2.

    Get the American People”
    Force their Representatives”
    “Under MY Plan of a Cap & Trade System”
    Electricity Prices would necessarily SKYROCKET

  41. Casino rules now: If you win and you’re a foreigner, and you’re on the IRS list (5-6 pages), you don’t get anything withheld from your winnings. Especially if you come from a country that does not withhold at home, like Canada, England. Just show your passport.

  42. Willis Eschenbach says:
    June 6, 2014 at 11:01 pm

    First off, my accoldes to Lord Monckton for his as usual ebullient and unmatchable oratory.

    Next, bushbunny says:
    June 6, 2014 at 9:06 pm

    Card counting illegal? What do they mean by this?

    Thanks, bushbunny. Actually, it’s not illegal … but the casinos will assuredly blackball you from their casino and circulate your photograph to all the other casinos where you will be blackballed as well. There is no “right to gamble”.

    ===================================================================
    Kind’a like Climate Science. If you say something often enough and long enough that doesn’t benefit the house, then you are blackballed.
    In some circles smart but honest gambling is no more welcomed than smart and honest science…when “the house” stands to lose, you are blackballed.

  43. “There’s no good reason to think that Obama for example, isn’t wholly convinced that he’s on the side of the angels.”
    ……………………….
    That’s laughable, recall Bengazi, Obamacare, and Bergdahl as examples of Obama’s mendacity.
    ………………………………

    The two statements are not contradictory.

    (Come to think of it, Obama may be a kind of natural antinomian.)

  44. Can the Good Lord tell us how many “hard Left” Governments there are in the world engaged in his alleged climate change scams ? Given also that there are plenty of centre and centre-right Governments promoting renewables and with emission reduction targets, how right wing does that make Monckton ?

    His gambling focus is apt – he is gambling his science is right. Time will tell.

  45. pokerguy says:
    June 6, 2014 at 6:49 pm
    “There’s no good reason to think that Obama for example, isn’t wholly convinced that he’s on the side of the angels. ”

    Obama is probably not convinced of anything. He’s a notoric liar since school days. In German, a Blender or Hochstapler or in english flim flam man.

  46. ImranCan June 7, 2014 at 4:02 am :

    Thanks for the observations. If I were to respond I would get snipped for being off topic. As James Abbott says above: “Time will tell”

  47. El Nino Nanny says:
    June 7, 2014 at 8:36 am
    “Watch the facial expressions and eye movements”
    These can be a tell, sometimes…

    http://www.blifaloo.com/info/lies_eyes.php

    Basically, eyes to the left are “constructing” memories, not recalling real memories.
    BTW, Obama is left handed, so all references to “construction” are eyes to the right.

  48. Mr Abbott is perhaps a little disingenuous. It is the enviro-fascists of the hard Left that are the driving force behind the climate scare. Governments of the center-right, such as Britain’s, are constrained to go along with the climate babble for the time being because they are in coalition with the “Liberal” “Democrats” (who are neither, being hard-Left these days).

    And there are those non-Leftists, such as the unspeakable “Tim” Yeo, chairman of the Commons’ Environment Committee, who are too thick to understand even elementary scientific concepts (watch Dick Lindzen trying and failing to explain to him in words of one syl-la-ble how 17 years of no global warming and this decade being a tad warmer than the last are not incompatible), but who are capable of understanding that if they go along with this drivel they can make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year out of it by sitting on the boards of “renewable”-energy corporations that would not exist were it not for the excessive subsidies wrenched from the pockets of the poor and flung at profiteers of doom such as Yeo.

    Then there are the ninnies, like “Dave” Cameron, described as a “Prime Minister”, who dragged a largely unwilling “Conservative” party into clamoring for climate-change legislation not because he thought there was any need for it but because he thought it was cool and would attract younger voters (a ploy that failed). The “Conservatives”, most of whom privately think the whole thing is nonsense, now merely look feeble-minded because their public stance is so greatly at variance both with the emerging scientific fact of low climate sensitivity and with the opinions of most true conservatives.

    Parties of the center-right in Canada and Australia, for instance, are ditching the climate nonsense as fast as they can. In essence, therefore, this is a scare driven by the totalitarian, anti-capitalist Left. Let them cling to it for a few years more: they will increasingly look foolish as temperatures fail to increase at the predicted rate. In fact, they have increased at precisely half the rate predicted with “substantial confidence” by IPCC in 1990, which is why even IPCC has been compelled, by a variety of dodges and wriggles, to near-halve its estimate of anthropogenic radiative forcing from 1750 to date, and also to near-halve its near-term prediction of global warming from now to 2050.

    In Britain, UKIP’s opposition to the climate nonsense was one of the reasons why the party took a seat even in Scotland, where the wind-farm infestation is wrecking the landscape, decimating the tourist industry and killing off our rare birds with the enthusiastic approval of the Left-dominated Royal Society for the Prevention of Birds. The Leftist nexus that dominates academe, the scientific societies, civil service bureaucracies, and the news media is already getting a bloody nose because it has been incapable of adjusting its extremist stance in the light of the emerging and now overwhelming evidence that the rate of global warming – though it will resume – will not be anything like as great as predicted, and will not require us to squander a single further red cent on trying to make non-existent global warming go away.

  49. It is a telling statement from Lord Monckton that he believes that

    “It is the enviro-fascists of the hard Left that are the driving force behind the climate scare”

    Whatever political slant he wishes to put on the issue, it was climate scientists that first did the work to show that changing GHG concentrations could significantly affect the climate, and decades before it became a major political issue.

    The idea that the the Professor who taught me atmospheric physics in the early 1980s was an “enviro-fascist of the hard Left” is comical.

  50. Mr Abbott is disingenuous again. The discovery that greenhouse gases could in theory influence the climate by warming it was made by physicists, not climate scientists. And it is not I who put a “political slant” on the issue. The exaggerations made by those driving the climate scare, who are chiefly on the hard Left, go well beyond what the science currently justifies. The very concept of science by “consensus” is a totalitarian-Left concept: only one point of view, that of the State, is permissible, and if – as is the case – only 0.5% of scientists subscribe to the notion officially promulgated, that is nevertheless promoted as a 97% consensus. The Left cannot duck their responsibility for fueling this ludicrous scare.

  51. I made 28 bets today, on 3 different racetracks.
    Picked the winner of the Belmont.
    I bet $127.00 and got $145.40 back.

    You think climate predictions are hard ?, try to predict a horse race.

  52. The passage about a “mean expected duration until ruin” reminded me of a climate-related thought game that I had toyed with some time ago:

    If we round-down the history of life on earth to 3 billion years, and break that into 100 year segments we have 30 million such segments. Meanwhile, warmers suggest that an additional 5% of CO2 released by human activity for a mere 100 years will lead to catastrophic climate change. Of course, Mother Earth cannot distinguish man-released CO2 from naturally-released CO2, as there is no difference between the two. This would mean that Mother Earth is the luckiest gambler in the history of the universe, having won on 30 million consecutive rolls of the dice that an additional 5% of CO2 would not be released during each 100 year period.

    Or else there is a higher power leaning on the roulette wheel. Or else the notion that the world’s climate will spin off into a Venus-like scenario due to a small additional carbon forcing is invalid. Take your pick. But you must choose one of the above options or introduce one of your own.

  53. @sciguy54: Your comment above makes no reasonable sense at all. The CO2 levels will DOUBLE in the next decades. That is a big deal.

    And, since you call yourself “sciguy” I assume you know that even though CO2 is a small percentage of all atmospheric gases, that a small change in average temps causes very large positive feedbacks – primarily, an increase in the largest GHG…water vapor….a huge multiplier.

    • I am enough of an engineer to know that when a system has survived 30 million cycles, of which some have involved similar external forces, then than system is likely to survive a few more.

  54. “Sciguy54 says:

    June 7, 2014 at 9:28 pm

    But you must choose one of the above options or introduce one of your own.”

    Here’s my option: Nothing will happen to the climate on this rock in the next 100 years.

  55. @rod leman

    Pay no attention to Mr Leman, as he has a bad case of modelitis, which causes serious errors in judgement.

    • No problem. All sincere and civil responses are welcome, and Rod’s response seemed to be such.

      Models can be a great way to understand the behavior of a system, past, present and future. However, models which are inconsistent with the past and the present are not to be relied upon for looking forward into the future. This is where we seem to be with present climate models.

      I would rather bet on past performance than hang my hat on complex, unproven and ill-fitting models. I would certainly rather not agree to make my grandchildren the future ATM for anyone claiming to have been damaged now and in perpetuity because of an unproven/disproven model.

  56. Mr Leman is incorrect both about the direct forcing from CO2 and about the feedbacks. The direct forcing is not important because it causes only 1 K global warming. And the feedbacks cannot be safely said to be as large as Mr Leman thinks. Indeed, the IPCC’s central estimate of those feedbacks, in its 2013 report, halves their former effect. Previously, the feedback sum was 2 Watts per square meter per Kelvin, just about tripling the 1 K direct warming from CO2. Now it is 1.5 Watts per square meter per Kelvin, which merely doubles the direct warming. And even that may well be an exaggeration: see e.g. Lindzen & Choi (2011), cited in IPCC (2013), or see Spencer & Braswell (2011). The IPCC has now begun to accept that Spencer & Braswell may be right that the cloud feedback is negative, not strongly positive, and it has reduced its former estimate to make it weakly positive.

    The IPCC has also almost halved its estimate of near-term temperature change; reduced the lower bound of its equilibrium climate-sensitivity interval; abandoned its earlier attempts to give a central estimate of climate sensitivity; and cut sharply the fraction of anthropogenic warming attributable to CO2. Nearly all of these climbdowns, which in aggregate are highly significant, are carefully buried in the 2013 report. The sections on feedbacks, now scattered through the report rather than collected into one place, show signs of having been written so as deliberately to confuse, and to conceal the extent of the IPCC’s climbdown. For instance, two distinct and mutually incompatible definitions of “feedback parameter” are used.

    I shall be contributing a head posting on these matters shortly, in which I shall attempt to quantify the extent of the IPCC’s climate-sensitivity climbdown. There is now a glaring disconnect between the numerous reductions the IPCC has made in its estimates of the individual components in climate sensitivity and its failure to reduce the upper bound, as the empirical evidence now obliges an honest panel to do.

  57. Village Idiot says:
    June 7, 2014 at 1:46 pm

    ImranCan June 7, 2014 at 4:02 am :

    Thanks for the observations. If I were to respond I would get snipped for being off topic. As James Abbott says above: “Time will tell”

    Time IS telling.

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