Some advance copy on the National Climate Assessment Report

I’ve been able to obtain some highlights and findings in advance of release of the full report which is expected later today. It seems the only facet of severe weather they aren’t trying to link to climate change is tornadoes and lightning. They say:

The full report of the National Climate Assessment provides an in-depth look at climate change impacts on the U.S. It details the multitude of ways climate change is already affecting and will increasingly affect the lives of Americans.

Explore how climate change affects you and your family.

Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s, and their tracks have shifted northward. Other trends in severe storms, including tornadoes, hail, and thunderstorms, are still uncertain.

So basically, they are trying to make people afraid of the more mundane weather, but stop short on tornadoes and thunderstorms, because they know they’ll be called out on it. Hurricanes are something they still embrace as being climate related, even though we are onto the longest major hurricane drought in U.S. history, expected to be 3,142 days when hurricane season starts on June 1st, 2014.

hurricane_drought_2014

I’m providing the section on severe weather now without further comment.

Introduction

As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.

f2-coast-to-coast-hi[1]

Heat waves are periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks. The number of heat waves has been increasing in recent years. This trend has continued in 2011 and 2012, with the number of intense heat waves being almost triple the long-term average. The recent heat waves and droughts in Texas (2011) and the Midwest (2012) set records for highest monthly average temperatures. Analyses show that human-induced climate change has generally increased the probability of heat waves., And prolonged (multi-month) extreme heat has been unprecedented since the start of reliable instrumental records in 1895.

Drought

f2-texas-scatter-hi[1]

Higher temperatures lead to increased rates of evaporation, including more loss of moisture through plant leaves. Even in areas where precipitation does not decrease, these increases in surface evaporation and loss of water from plants lead to more rapid drying of soils if the effects of higher temperatures are not offset by other changes (such as reduced wind speed or increased humidity). As soil dries out, a larger proportion of the incoming heat from the sun goes into heating the soil and adjacent air rather than evaporating its moisture, resulting in hotter summers under drier climatic conditions.

An example of recent drought occurred in 2011, when many locations in Texas and Oklahoma experienced more than 100 days over 100°F. Both states set new records for the hottest summer since record keeping began in 1895. Rates of water loss, due in part to evaporation, were double the long-term average. The heat and drought depleted water resources and contributed to more than $10 billion in direct losses to agriculture alone.

 

Heavy Downpours

Heavy downpours are increasing nationally, especially over the last three to five decades. The heaviest rainfall events have become heavier and more frequent, and the amount of rain falling on the heaviest rain days has also increased. Since 1991, the amount of rain falling in very heavy precipitation events has been significantly above average. This increase has been greatest in the Northeast, Midwest, and upper Great Plains – more than 30% above the 1901-1960 average. There has also been an increase in flooding events in the Midwest and Northeast, where the largest increases in heavy rain amounts have occurred.

Observed U.S. Trends in Heavy Precipitation

CS_extreme-precip-index_13263_V9[1]

 

The mechanism driving these changes is well understood. Warmer air can contain more water vapor than cooler air. Global analyses show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has in fact increased due to human-caused warming.,,, This extra moisture is available to storm systems, resulting in heavier rainfalls. Climate change also alters characteristics of the atmosphere that affect weather patterns and storms.

Floods

Flooding may intensify in many U.S. regions, even in areas where total precipitation is projected to decline. A flood is defined as any high flow, overflow, or inundation by water that causes or threatens damage. Floods are caused or amplified by both weather- and human-related factors. Major weather factors include heavy or prolonged precipitation, snowmelt, thunderstorms, storm surges from hurricanes, and ice or debris jams. Human factors include structural failures of dams and levees, altered drainage, and land-cover alterations (such as pavement).

Major Flood Types

All flood types are affected by climate-related factors, some more than others.

Flash floods occur in small and steep watersheds and waterways and can be caused by short-duration intense precipitation, dam or levee failure, or collapse of debris and ice jams. Most flood-related deaths in the U.S. are associated with flash floods.

Urban flooding can be caused by short-duration very heavy precipitation. Urbanization creates large areas of impervious surfaces (such as roads, pavement, parking lots, and buildings) that increased immediate runoff, and heavy downpours can exceed the capacity of storm drains and cause urban flooding.

Flash floods and urban flooding are directly linked to heavy precipitation and are expected to increase as a result of increases in heavy precipitation events.

River flooding occurs when surface water drained from a watershed into a stream or a river exceeds channel capacity, overflows the banks, and inundates adjacent low lying areas. Riverine flooding depends on precipitation as well as many other factors, such as existing soil moisture conditions and snowmelt.

Coastal flooding is predominantly caused by storm surges that accompany hurricanes and other storms that push large seawater domes toward the shore. Storm surge can cause deaths, widespread infrastructure damage, and severe beach erosion. Storm-related rainfall can also cause inland flooding and is responsible for more than half of the deaths associated with tropical storms. Climate change affects coastal flooding through sea level rise and storm surge, and increases in heavy rainfall during storms.

Increasingly, humanity is also adding to weather-related factors, as human-induced warming increases heavy downpours, causes more extensive storm surges due to sea level rise, and leads to more rapid spring snowmelt.

f2-trends-flood-hi[1]

Worldwide, from 1980 to 2009, floods caused more than 500,000 deaths and affected more than 2.8 billion people. In the United States, floods caused 4,586 deaths from 1959 to 2005 while property and crop damage averaged nearly 8 billion dollars per year (in 2011 dollars) over 1981 through 2011. The risks from future floods are significant, given expanded development in coastal areas and floodplains, unabated urbanization, land-use changes, and human-induced climate change.

Hurricanes

 

hurricane

 

There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high quality satellite data are available.,, These include measures of intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms. The recent increases in activity are linked, in part, to higher sea surface temperatures in the region that Atlantic hurricanes form in and move through. Numerous factors have been shown to influence these local sea surface temperatures, including natural variability, human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases, and particulate pollution. Quantifying the relative contributions of natural and human-caused factors is an active focus of research.

 

cars in storm surge

 

Hurricane development, however, is influenced by more than just sea surface temperature. How hurricanes develop also depends on how the local atmosphere responds to changes in local sea surface temperatures, and this atmospheric response depends critically on the cause of the change., For example, the atmosphere responds differently when local sea surface temperatures increase due to a local decrease of particulate pollution that allows more sunlight through to warm the ocean, versus when sea surface temperatures increase more uniformly around the world due to increased amounts of human-caused heat-trapping gases.,,,

By late this century, models, on average, project an increase in the number of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes. Models also project greater rainfall rates in hurricanes in a warmer climate, with increases of about 20% averaged near the center of hurricanes.

Change in Other Storms

 

cars abandoned in show

Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s, and their tracks have shifted northward over the United States., Other trends in severe storms, including the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain and are being studied intensively. There has been a sizable upward trend in the number of storms causing large financial and other losses. However, there are societal contributions to this trend, such as increases in population and wealth.

 

 

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54 thoughts on “Some advance copy on the National Climate Assessment Report

  1. Isn’t the trend of winter storms tracking more northward a positive development versus a negative one? Can’t wait till they miss us altogether. Unfortunately that does not seem to be happening of late. They probably embargoed this thing until after the snow was gone in the Northern states, as putting this out when there was snow still falling in April probably would have drawn angry derision from those in the North.

  2. “Other trends in severe storms, including the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain and are being studied intensively.”

    Yeah, right. Anything that does not fit the agenda and cannot be “corrected” away must therefore “uncertain” and thus ignored.

    http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=218

  3. Weather is becoming more extreme (except for when it isn’t) …. in a warming world ( that isn’t ). …
    yes I think I start to see a pattern in all this: and it’s worse than we thought !

  4. Hold on a minute! Tejas and Arizona hit 100+F in the summer? Get the @#$% outta here….

  5. You will not see any honest data assessments in the report. They cannot afford to. They are easily verified and will be shown to be false. But then that is the kindest thing you can say about this regime.

  6. Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s, and their tracks have shifted northward. Other trends in severe storms, including tornadoes, hail, and thunderstorms, are still uncertain.

    Has this ever happened before during the Holocene? You bethca. What evidence can they provide to show that this is being caused by man made greenhouse gases?

  7. US mega-droughts are part of the natural climate.
    US droughts and mega-droughts during the Holocene

    IPCC
    IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
    Multiple proxies, including tree rings, sediments, historical documents and lake sediment records make it clear that the past 2 kyr included periods with more frequent, longer and/or geographically more extensive droughts in North America than during the 20th century (Stahle and Cleaveland, 1992; Stahle et al., 1998; Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998; Forman et al., 2001; Cook et al., 2004b; Hodell et al., 2005; MacDonald and Case, 2005). Past droughts, including decadal-length ‘megadroughts’ (Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998), are most likely due to extended periods of anomalous SST (Hoerling and Kumar, 2003; Schubert et al., 2004; MacDonald and Case, 2005; Seager et al., 2005), but remain difficult to simulate with coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Thus, the palaeoclimatic record suggests that multi-year, decadal and even centennial-scale drier periods are likely to remain a feature of future North American climate, particularly in the area west of the Mississippi River.

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch6s6-6-5-5.html

  8. “Global analyses show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has in fact increased…”. Does anyone know where I can find confirmation if this is this true and to what degree? I was under the impression that that amount of water vapour in the atmosphere has not increased. Thanks.

  9. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events.

    Observations-

    Letter To Nature – 11 September 2012
    Justin Sheffield et al
    Little change in global drought over the past 60 years

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7424/full/nature11575.html

    ———————

    Abstract – 2008
    Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest
    ……Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales……

    http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1501/2315.short

    ———————
    Nature – 19 September 2012
    Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.
    But without the computing capacity of a well-equipped national meteorological office, heavily model-dependent services such as event attribution and seasonal prediction are unlikely to be as reliable.

    http://www.nature.com/news/extreme-weather-1.11428

  10. “There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high quality satellite data are available.,, These include measures of intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms”.

    Huh? What?

  11. With all this extreme weather you would think that Warren Buffet would have notice and priced accordingly. He is a money man afterall and is no-one’s fool.

    No climate change impact on insurance biz: Buffett
    Monday, 3 Mar 2014
    The effects of climate change, “if any,” have not affected the insurance market, billionaire Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday—adding he’s not calculating the probabilities of catastrophes any differently.

    While the question of climate change “deserves lots of attention,” Buffett said in a “Squawk Box” interview, “It has no effect … [on] the prices we’re charging this year versus five years ago. And I don’t think it’ll have an effect on what we’re charging three years or five years from now.” He added, “That may change ten years from now.”……………

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101460458

  12. Jimbo, 6:59

    You are using stale and misleading data by referring to the Fourth Assessment Report. At the time the IPCC was only ‘really sure’ that man was causing weather extremes.

    In the Fifth Assessment Report the IPCC is ‘really, really darn sure.’

  13. Below is a wider, global view. Afterall global warming is supposed to be global and not a country that strongly feels the effects of ENSO etc.

    Abstract – 2012
    Persistent non-solar forcing of Holocene storm dynamics in coastal sedimentary archives

    We find that high storm activity occurred periodically with a frequency of about 1,500 years, closely related to cold and windy periods diagnosed earlier”

    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1619.html

    ——-

    Conclusion – 2011
    Long-term properties of annual maximum daily river discharge worldwide

    Analysis of trends and of aggregated time series on climatic (30-year) scale does not indicate consistent trends worldwide. Despite common perception, in general, the detected trends are more negative (less intense floods in most recent years) than positive. Similarly, Svensson et al. (2005) and Di Baldassarre et al. (2010) did not find systematical change neither in flood increasing or decreasing numbers nor change in flood magnitudes in their analysis.

    http://itia.ntua.gr/getfile/1128/2/documents/2011EGU_DailyDischargeMaxima_Pres.pdf

    ——-

    Abstract – 2011
    Fluctuations in some climate parameters

    There is argument as to the extent to which there has been an increase over the past few decades in the frequency of the extremes of climatic parameters, such as temperature, storminess, precipitation, etc, an obvious point being that Global Warming might be responsible. Here we report results on those parameters of which we have had experience during the last few years: Global surface temperature, Cloud Cover and the MODIS Liquid Cloud Fraction. In no case we have found indications that fluctuations of these parameters have increased with time.

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2011.01.021

    ——-

    Abstract – 2011
    The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

    It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.776/full

    ——-

    Abstract – 2012
    Changes in the variability of global land precipitation

    We report a near-zero temporal trend in global mean P. Unexpectedly we found a reduction in global land P variance over space and time that was due to a redistribution, where, on average, the dry became wetter while wet became drier.

    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012GL053369.shtml

    ——-

    Nature – 19 September 2012
    Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.
    But without the computing capacity of a well-equipped national meteorological office, heavily model-dependent services such as event attribution and seasonal prediction are unlikely to be as reliable.

    http://www.nature.com/news/extreme-weather-1.11428

    ——-

    IPCC – 2012
    FAQ 3.1 Is the Climate Becoming More Extreme? [...] None of the above instruments has yet been developed sufficiently as to allow us to confidently answer the question posed here.

    http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf

    Yet they keep pushing for it. Looking for signs in the natural climate changes that take place anyway and blame man. How can they disentangle it? The report points to post 1950 yet they know full well similar extremes occurred before 1950.

  14. They know that they are overstated on hurricane numbers. Here is what they say: “There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high quality satellite data are available.” Emphasis on satellite data availability.

    There has certainly been an increase in the number of detected small hurricanes far from land, especially short lived ones. These are the kinds of hurricanes that 40 years ago might not have been observed enough to categorize as a hurricane of any class. Today we can ID a hurricane from satellites very quickly.

    Here is a paper by NOAA author (and resigned IPCC author) Chris Landsea, which makes the point that in the satellite era, we now have more identified storms, and more storms of short duration, with no trend in bigger storms and those of long duration:

    http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-et-al-jclim2010.pdf

    When politicians of all stripes, for whatever reason, see a need to make a point that may be inaccurate, they will often make the point anyway, and expect that repetition in the media will create a “fact” among most readers. George Orwell would approve. Whether the politicians want to create a new “fact” may be due to true belief themselves — they have themselves been convinced that we need to get the people behind costly efforts to adorn the land with wind machines, perhaps — or it may simply be that they need to do what their backers want them to do. Backers in this case means the entire environmental community, who have to be mobilized for the upcoming elections, and it is also the big dollar contributors such as GE, which makes lots of money when wind machines are proliferating.

    Judith Curry’s latest post, Profits (?) of Doom, hits on the theme of all the money that can be made by getting behind the frenzy whipped up by the environmental community — meaning that big money backs these causes and does well by them:

    http://judithcurry.com/2014/05/05/profits-of-doom/

    Here is Landsea’s letter of resignation from the IPCC:

    http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

  15. Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s,
    ================
    No wonder they stopped calling it Global Warming.

    Wouldn’t increasing winter storms be more likely a sign that the next Ice Age is approaching?

  16. More on cynical profiteering from the chaos started by climate change alarmism:

    On Judith Curry’s latest link, commenter Scottish Skeptic gives an example of how much $ can be made by politically connected people who rides the political wave. First the link, then Scottish Skeptic’s comment:

    http://judithcurry.com/2014/05/05/profits-of-doom/

    “A long time ago, before I was moved to look at the evidence on CO2 myself I was a member of the Scottish Parliament Renewable Energy Group. It was run by a few businessmen who were very keen on wind. They controlled the parliamentary group and pushed the issue very hard and I assumed it was principle first and profit second until I spoke to a newcomer one day.

    It was still well before much action was seen on the ground and I asked them how they were getting on with securing sites for windmills. They said “not very well. Almost every single site in Scotland has already been bought up by one of the people running the Scottish Parliamentary group”.

    In other words, it was all to do with profit. The naive gullible politicians (and even those like me) were just pawns in a huge money making scheme. That was about 13 years ago. Even a single person speaking up should have been enough for even the dumbest politician and civil servant to wake up and smell the con.

    But no! The wind profiteers still pour their poison into the ears of the numpties running Scotland and no doubt the con men who started this scam now have 100s of millions of ordinary people’s money in their pocket now – ready to fund the next rip-off scare.”

  17. Political Junkie says:
    May 6, 2014 at 7:14 am

    Jimbo, 6:59

    You are using stale and misleading data by referring to the Fourth Assessment Report. At the time the IPCC was only ‘really sure’ that man was causing weather extremes.

    In the Fifth Assessment Report the IPCC is ‘really, really darn sure.’

    It’s caused by the upcoming climate conference. :>O

    UNITED NATIONS
    Climate Summit 2014 – CATALYZING ACTION

    As part of a global effort to mobilize action and ambition on climate change, United Nations
    Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is inviting Heads of State and Government along with business, finance, civil society and local leaders to a Climate Summit in September 2014, New York.

    This Summit will be a different kind of Climate Summit. It is aimed at catalyzing action by governments, business, finance, industry, and civil society in areas for new commitments and substantial, scalable and replicable contributions to the Summit that will help the world shift toward a low-carbon economy.

    http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit2014/

    They are walking a tight rope. They want to make the wild claims officially but know full well that it’s not backed by science. They make only short term claims (weather), speculate about the future (climate models), or longer term claims of trends (natural) and link it to man with weasel words.

  18. They only tell half of the truth when they tell it at all. I thought that many studies predicted that the number of hurricanes may decrease but there will be a small increase in stronger ones. They did not mention the part about fewer hurricanes in the section quoted above.

  19. Over the last 50 years [1964-2014], much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.

    I assume they are trying to tell us during the previous 50 years [1914-1964] much of the U.S. has seen less prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.

    Okay, there is nothing wrong with this proposition except it is not true.

    Or one is free to deny the existence of events like the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 (the most destructive river flood in the history of the United States), the Dust Bowl (the largest mass migration in American history, involving 3.5 million people), world record surface temperature in Death Valley, California (134°F [56.7°C] on July 10, 1913 at Furnace Creek). It is indeed an inalienable right to do so in a free country, however, there is no other term to describe such people accurately than climate denier.

  20. To put things into perspective take a look at the some of the dire effects on man of the Little Ice Age. It was a terrible time of Great Storms disease, crop failures leading to famine and witch hunts, century-scale droughts in East Africa, increases in flood magnitude in mid-continent North America, malaria epidemics, mass migration, cod migrations north stunted, food price inflation, increased frequency of forest fires, drought in equatorial Africa, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China, substantial decline in rural prosperity in Norway, decline in average height of northern Europeans, aridity in the circum-Caribbean region, agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, the demise of the Norse Western Settlement in Greenland etc.

    Our climate today is wonderful and normal while our biosphere has been greening in recent decades. What is the problem? The weather?

  21. @Jimbo
    “While the question of climate change “deserves lots of attention,” Buffett said in a “Squawk Box” interview, “It has no effect … [on] the prices we’re charging this year versus five years ago. And I don’t think it’ll have an effect on what we’re charging three years or five years from now.” He added, “That may change ten years from now.”……………
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101460458

    I assume what was left of was Warren’s conclusion “…because in ten years I’ll be dead and who knows what the idiots in charge at that point will do.”

  22. Expect more floods in a warmer world. Of course dear.

    Abstract – July 1997
    Response of extreme floods in the southwestern United States to climatic variations in the late Holocene
    A regional synthesis of paleoflood chronologies on rivers in Arizona and southern Utah reveals that the largest floods over the last 5000 years cluster into distinct time periods that are related to regional and global climatic fluctuations…….

    The paleoflood records confirm the existence of centennial-scale variations in the conditions conducive to the occurrence of extreme floods and flood-generating storms in this region. The episodes with an increased frequency of high-magnitude floods coincide with periods of cool, wet climate in the western U.S., whereas warm intervals, such as the Medieval Warm Period, are times of dramatic decreases in the number of large floods. A positive relationship between the paleofloods and long-term variations in the frequency of El Nin˜o events is evident over the last 1000 years. This relationship continues over at least the last 3000 years with warm coastal sea-surface temperatures indicative of El Nin˜o-like conditions.

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(97)00014-7

  23. ferdberple says:
    May 6, 2014 at 7:17 am

    Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s,
    ================
    No wonder they stopped calling it Global Warming.

    Wouldn’t increasing winter storms be more likely a sign that the next Ice Age is approaching?
    ________________________
    Here’s my best imitation of a voice from deep within the climate fearosphere:
    “Global warming means more evaporation and warmer air holds more water, so it snows more.”

  24. Expect moreless floods.

    Abstract
    A 5000-Year Record of Extreme Floods and Climate Change in the Southwestern United States
    A 5000-year regional paleoflood chronology, based on flood deposits from 19 rivers in Arizona and Utah, reveals that the largest floods in the region cluster into distinct time intervals that coincide with periods of cool, moist climate and frequent El Niño events…..

    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/262/5132/410.short

  25. The whole extreme weather section is another version of “if you like your insurance you can keep your insurance” when the reality was 7 million cancellations.
    Perhaps this obvious weather canard , like Obummercare and the Keystone pipeline punt, can be put to good use in November.

  26. We must act now to save our Great Plains’ agriculture. You know it’s the right thing to do.

    Abstract
    ‘Little Ice Age’ aridity in the North American Great Plains: a high-resolution reconstruction of salinity fluctuations from Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA
    The ‘Little Ice Age’ was an interval between about AD 1500 and 1850, characterized by advancing glaciers in mountainous regions of Europe and western North America. However, it is unclear whether this cool moist period was truly global in extent, or how it was manifested in other regions with different climatic controls. A high-resolution reconstruction of salinity fluctuations in Devils Lake, North Dakota, based on fossil diatoms, ostracode-shell geochemistry, and bulk-carbonate geochemistry, indicates that saline conditions prevailed throughout much of the recent past. These results suggest an arid climate in the northern Great Plains throughout the ‘Little Ice Age’ and that during this interval climatic gradients between the Great Plains and regions to both the east and west may have been quite steep.

    http://hol.sagepub.com/content/4/1/69.short

  27. from above: “The mechanism driving these changes is well understood. Warmer air can contain more water vapor than cooler air. Global analyses show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has in fact increased due to human-caused warming.”

    James (@JGrizz0011) says:
    Does anyone know where I can find confirmation if this is this true and to what degree?

    V.Isaac and W.A. van Wijngaarden,2012: Surface Water Vapour Pressure and Temperature Trends in North America during 1948-2010. Journal of Climate 2012.
    “The averages of the seasonal trends are .20C/decade and .07hPa/decade which correspond to a specific humidity increase of .04g/kg per decade and a relative humidity reduction of .5%/decade.

    or see

    Variations in annual global preicpitation (1979-2004) based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. Thomas Smith, Xungand Yin, Arnold Gruber, Geophysical Research Letters Vol 33, Issue 6, March 2006.
    “(precipitation) trends have spatial variations both positive and negative values, with a global- average near zero.

  28. Warmer air can contain more water vapor than cooler air. Global analyses show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has in fact increased due to human-caused warming.”

    Actual causation or correlation? So natural warming doesn’t cause increases in water vapor?

  29. The “intelligentsia” in D.C. and in some institutes of “higher learning” will never doubt their fervent belief in climate change [by which they mean AGW] until there are mile high glaciers marching down Pennsylvania Ave. Even in that event they would probably just look at the icy evidence against AGW and say “Wuzzat?”

    Does this nonsense never stop? [rhetorical]

  30. An example of recent drought occurred in 2011, when many locations in Texas and Oklahoma experienced more than 100 days over 100°F. Both states set new records for the hottest summer since record keeping began in 1895.

    Hmmm. Why 1895? A quick check of the station history file at

    http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp070/history.txt

    shows the following Texas stations with earlier records:
    Alice 1892
    Boerne 1876
    Brenham 1885
    Brownwood 1888
    Clarksville 1870
    Corpus Cristi 1887
    Corsicana 1874
    Crosbyton 1886
    Dublin 1890
    Eagle Pass 1849
    El Paso 1877
    Ft Stockton 1859
    Gainsville 1889
    Halletsville 1891
    Haskel 1890
    Lampasas 1888
    Llano 1891
    Luling 1882
    Marshal 1892
    Mexia 1888
    Miami 1888
    New Braunfels 1853
    Pecos 1889
    Plainview 1889
    Quanah 1891
    Rio Grande City 1849
    San Antonio 1846
    Snyder 1889
    Temple 1882
    Weatherford 1882
    Would the claim to all time records stand, if the record extended back to the belligerent weather of the last half of the 19th century?

  31. James (@JGrizz0011) says: May 6, 2014 at 7:04 am

    “Global analyses show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has in fact increased…”. Does anyone know where I can find confirmation if this is this true and to what degree? I was under the impression that that amount of water vapour in the atmosphere has not increased. Thanks.
    Here is specific %: http://i61.tinypic.com/2wp16vt.jpg
    Relative %: http://i48.tinypic.com/14mwa5y.jpg
    ” : http://i48.tinypic.com/2qlfnzn.jpg

  32. Arguing about the validity of the report is pointless. For now all countries must begin changing from fossil fuels (which are running out anyway) to sustainable forms of energy. In addition, it would be useful if countries also developed ways in which flood waters, or more accurately, waters which could potentially be flood waters, are harnessed and stored for future use by local populations. One thing that is not of any doubt is that drinking water world wide is declining. it is not some sort of bizaare or irrational idea that agriculture could become more efficient in its use of water, and we could all become more efficient energy users if we had the appropriate and readily available equipment and processes. As this planet is the only one we have on which to live, it only makes sense to maintain and take care of it – the very same way you maintain and take care of your home. It doesn’t have to be “rocket science”, and debating whether climate change is real or not is wasting time that could be used in adapting to the new climate that we are living in.

    I am sure there are many many business opportunities in preparing people to be more energy and water efficient. It is true that the climate changes on a cyclical basis, and this time the cycle has been speeded up by human beings. That, however, is no reason to ignore what is happening, whatever you believe. And in the process we may save some ecosystems that are valuable and worthy of protection for our own and our children’s sake.

  33. “There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high quality satellite data are available.”
    The early 1980s was also the time of lowest Atlantic hurricane activity, so any trend since then can only be upward. Of course geostationary satellite coverage of the Atlantic goes back to 1972 and polar orbiting satellites to the early 1960s. Why not start there? Because hurricanes were more frequent back then and would screw up the trend line.
    “The recent increases in activity are linked, in part, to higher sea surface temperatures in the region that Atlantic hurricanes form in and move through.”
    These are changes in the AMO and PDO, which are unrelated to climate change, and have a much stronger influence on Atlantic hurricane numbers than any global warming trend. But the report goes on to throw GHG increases into reasons for changes in the hurricane numbers. This whole section is spinning faster than a Cat Five.

  34. ngoat55 says:
    May 6, 2014 at 8:50 am
    ………………

    Let us do the things you suggest for the right reasons and not for the purpose of hurting our current energy use based on fabricated evidence and exaggeration.

  35. There is a selection bias that is guaranteed to produce headlines (if desired) no matter what data you look at. Since extreme weather moves around from year to year, if you pick the place with (say) the highest temperature, then its almost guaranteed that that will be the highest ever temp IN THAT STATE, even if the overall max temp is not changing from year to year.

  36. May 6, 2014 at 8:22 am
    ” “… intelligentsia” in D.C. …”

    Please excuse my posting of an obvious oxymoron. My bad.

  37. As all successful dictators in the past have learned, the best way to control the population is through fear and ignorance. Our so-called intellectual superiors seem to forget that humans aren’t above or outside of nature, we are all part of nature.

  38. Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s,…….

    So this is what global warming has done in North America according to the White House. What did the IPCC tell us to expect for North America as a result of global warming?

    IPCC
    Climate Change, 2001
    Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point. It is difficult to predict where ice storms will occur and identify vulnerable populations.

    They tell us that global warming has certainly taken place and it is unprecedented on the record. This really is much worse than I thought. What a crock.

  39. Here is the IPCC in 2001.

    IPCC Climate Change 2001
    North America
    Potential impacts of climate change on cities include fewer periods of extreme winter cold; increased frequency of extreme heat; rising sea levels and risk of storm surge; and changes in timing, frequency, and severity of flooding associated with storms and precipitation extremes.

    http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=548#10

  40. The mechanism driving these changes is well understood. Warmer air can contain more water vapor than cooler air. Global analyses show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has in fact increased due to human-caused warming.,,, This extra moisture is available to storm systems, resulting in heavier rainfalls.

    But hasn’t the average air temperature in CONUS been declining in recent decades? (A chart showing this should be added to the reference pages.)

  41. So what you are saying is that even the noise of “average” is the fault of fossil fuels? I see. Never mind extremes. If you are having a normal day with normal changing weather, which sometimes makes your day worse and sometimes makes your day better, it is all due to anthropogenic CO2 wafting in the air around you.

    That rain shower over there! Human caused!!!! That rainbow!!!! Human caused!!!!!! Sunburn!!!!!!!!! Human caused!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  42. The NCA Cherry picked the early 80’s to present to posit that Major hurricanes impacting the US have increased.
    The data:
    – Number of Major Atlantic Hurricanes (cat 3-5) that also made US landfall (as any cat)
    1980-1996: 12
    1997-2013: 18.

    note: 2004 and 2005 really stand out as high years. 2005 was of course the year of Katrina and Rita, both made cat 5, but landfall was cat 3 for both.

    If we break it down from 1996 to 2013:
    – Number of Major Atlantic Hurricanes (cat 3-5) that also made US landfall (as any cat):
    1996-2004: 14
    2005-2013: 6

    The last Major Hurricane to go on to US landfall was Ike, making landfall on Galveston Bay, Texas on 9/13/08. Zero since then.

    In the last 18 seasons since 1996, in the first 9 seasons (96-04), the numbers were high. But even including 2005, the period between 2005-2013 has seen a dramatic decrease to 6 major Atlantic hurricanes that went on to make US landfall, with 4 of those 6 in 2005, and the other 2 in 2008.

    Conclusion: This NCA major hurricane claim is a bag of cherries.

  43. Meant to include the number:
    In the last 18 seasons since 1996, in the first 9 seasons (96-04), the number was high [at 14].

  44. Also Ike in 2008 made landfall as a cat 2, but it attained a max of cat 3 prior to landfall.

    The 3142 days number in the bar graph for # of days since last cat 3 US landfall was Wilma on 10/24/2005 in the Florida (gulf-side) Everglades moving northeast into the Atlantic.

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