Your chance to predict future El Niño headlines

Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:

I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.

So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,

From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.

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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS

El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.

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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.

So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.

My contribution is:

Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!

Happy headlining!

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209 thoughts on “Your chance to predict future El Niño headlines

  1. Maybe with this one they will start naming them, like the ridiculous practice of the weather channel naming snowstorms.

    Does anyone know how to say “The death of skepticism” in latin?

    /sarc

  2. “It rain’d all night the day I left, The weather it was dry, The sun so hot I frose to death; Susanna, don’t you cry.”

    The Global Warming Musical

  3. First, it will not be big or super anything (men…they always think things are bigger than they are). What counts is overall column heat. And this will be nothing to get all twitterpated over. The lead up (and ain’t it the truth ladies) is that this will be the biggest El Nino EVA and caused by human hands!!!!! But when it is finally revealed, it will leave us La Nina’s pointing and laughing.

    Sad.

    But true.

  4. Based on my belief that the sun, not CO2, warms the tropical oceans, and because solar output has been declining, and as expected the upper 700 meters of the ocean have cooled since 2003, I do no expect to see an El Nino that increases global temperature (unless heavily adjusted) above the 1997-98 event. I would guess any warming would be less than the 2010 event.

    Believing CO2 is driver of ocean warming, Hansen bet on a 2006 Super El Nino that never materialized and I suspect speculation of another Super El Nino is just more wishful thinking by alarmists hoping that nature will eventually support their worst fears. http://www.abqjournal.com/news/metro/449795metro04-08-06.htm

  5. The pause-in-global-warming that never happened is now over ( and it’s worse than we thought).

  6. Jim, of course the Sun heats the oceans. But the miniscule amount of solar change that you speak of cannot, CANNOT be detected in ocean heat anomaly measures. You do understand that of course.

  7. … future El Niño headlines …

    1) Super El Niño signals tipping point in battle against Global Warming

    2) Killer El Niño signals Climate Scientists were right

    3) CO2 caused Monster El Niño to cause boiling hot summer

  8. …So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media…

    I think that we should encourage them. I’m sure that, in the heat(pun alert!) of the moment, there will be a lot of exaggerated predictions made. We should get people to nail their predictions to the mast, and stake their reputations on this ‘resumption of heating’ continuing.

    That will give us ammunition for another 10 years…

  9. Near future: the end is nigh, warming expected to come back with a vengeance

    Later: warming returning just as predicted, scientists right all along

    Later still: earth’s temperature unprecedented

    Skeptic headline: pause continues unabated

  10. Climate Lies News Agency ;
    July 2014
    SUPER EL NINO FIRST SIGN OF AN OVERHEATING CLIMATE

    Scientists say that their models are showing the present super El Nino will be the first of an increasing series of El Ninos that will be hotter than any previous El Nino’s on record. These super El Ninos will release the heat that has been accumulating in the deepest parts of the oceans during the last 20 years.
    Scientists say that their models are showing this will lead to rapidly increasing global temperatures within the next 20 or 30 years . Their models also tell them that the the higher temperatures will be devastating to —-blah blah blah!

  11. Killer Heat from the Ocean… Temp rise of 0.03 was devastating… Sea level rises… wait! sea level falls due to Antarctic ice build up.

  12. A) First named El Nino Godzilla has surfaced from hiding in the deep ocean!
    B) Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Super El Nino Godzilla to destroy California! (with much needed beneficial rain)
    C) Hansens’ pipeline of heat hiding in the deep oceans boils eastern Pacific! It’s SO MUCH worse than we thought!

  13. Boiling Pacific Brings Most Sizzling Conditions Earth Has Seen Since the Formation of the Universe: Bush to Blame

  14. jim Steele says:
    April 12, 2014 at 3:11 pm

    I am with Jim on this one. Lower atmosphere cloud formation has increased and reflected heat in conjunction with a reduction in solar wind will allow further cooling of the upper levels of the ocean currents. Moderate El Nina at best, but even that is in question as the warm pool is not that big and not that warm. The recharge is weak.

    Time will tell.

  15. “Pause” fades like a mirage as el Nino in the Pacific brings global warming back with a vengeance. “

  16. Amr marzouk says: “Will examin the entrails of the next goat I sacrifice and get back to you.”

    Good idea! But don’t you need a Haruspex Certificate from UEA to do that? :)

  17. goldminor says: “I think that they will be very disappointed by the end of the summer.”

    In which case, the headlines will read: “Unprecedented Micro El Nino Proves Global Warming Theory, Scientists Say.”

  18. Bill Nye predicts that trade winds will blow…I don’t know…just guessing…North to South?

    See his Trade Wind explanation at 7:24. Based on his definition of trade winds and placement of the fan, when the winds stopped a Kelvin wave would propagate from East to West. Now that’s science!

  19. ‘El Nino returns with a vengeance as unprecedented storms batter the West. Leading scientists say “We told you so.” and warn that this is just the beginning unless extreme measures are taken to reduce CO2 emissions to pre-industrial revolution levels.’

  20. • Dangerous warming is here!
    • Head for the hills!
    • The 2nd hottest year evaaaaah!
    • The world is hotting up.
    • We must act now! It’s all for the grandchildren.
    • Climate change makes El Ninos stronger.
    • Scientists see worrying signs of global warming.

  21. Yeah, I don’t think we are going to see a large/strong El Nino which leaves lasting remnants for some time. And I am talking like between 2035-2045 before we do …will it really matter what they say at that point?

    We might see an El Nino, but I doubt it will be that large and it will probably be bookend by rather large La Nina events which leave them hesitant to say too much.

    So my headline prediction goes more along the lines of
    “After many false starts, is the next Super El Nino developing?”
    And I think we might even see a “missed/failed predictions” mention being a possibility

  22. Robert Wykoff says:
    April 12, 2014 at 3:01 pm

    It’s worse than we thought.

    It’s much worse than we thought.
    It’s much, much worse than we thought.

    It’s worse than we ever imagined.
    The Earth has a fever.
    Temperature overshoots IPCC projections.

  23. El Nino was called off on at the end of the year. At first it was called an EN “condition” which attracted funding, so they could “monitor its progress”. Then at the end of the year, in hindsight, if it eventuated it got itself redefined as an EN “episode”. If nothing, it was called an EN “fizzer”, which was technically still an EN “condition” to protect their earlier prediction. That is why ENs can be cool, hot, wet or dry. But EN never caused anything, any more than an inquest can cause an accident. It is merely a descriptive report. But nowadays we have prospect of El Nino ‘causing’ all manner of things, droughts, heat waves, bush fires, global warming etc. Funny how money inflates imaginations. As for cyclones, they seem to form closer to the equator during ENs and their frequency is suppressed. We don’t see that happening at the moment.

  24. TomR,Worc,MA,USA says: “Maybe with this one they will start naming them, like the ridiculous practice of the weather channel naming snowstorms.”

    And when a super El Nino is predicted and it fails to form, we can call in Hansen….in honor of James Hansen who kept predicting super El Ninos and none formed.

  25. Natural Variability Causes Global Warming. Mankind Must Adapt Again!

    Nah. That’s Just Wishful Thinking.

  26. I continue to not be satisfied by Bob’s conviction(?) that the ENSO related temperature trend is unrelated to CO2 effect. If Wills is correct that tropical surface temperatures are heavily regulated then it makes sense to me that a plausible explanation for the phenomena Bob most excellently describes is as follows:

    1. Excess heat is retained in the tropics as predicted by CO2 theory which puts most of the retention in the tropics.
    2. The temperature is regulated per Willis.
    3. The heat migrates to the poles or hides in the oceans per Willis and multiple sources
    4. The heat is periodically discharged into the atmosphere in an El Nino event.

    How does this not explain some of the CO2 induced warming?

    As an Arizona resident, I am a great fan of El Nino events. Similarly, I am not concerned about 100+ temperatures.

  27. The Prophecy

    Below the dozy masses lie
    Foul vapors rise to the fetid sky
    its radiant flux to multiply
    and warm the earth while creatures die
    And all shall feel the wrath again
    cast forth by Gaia in her pain
    While storms and droughts afflict the land
    The Prophets warn to stay their hand
    but they did not Then came the hour
    when nought could save them but to cower
    and wail and mourn the end of time
    as they foretold it in their rhyme.

  28. El Nino’s Arrival Triggers Premature Exhilaration Epidemic Among Bureaucracy Lovers
    It Came From The Deep and None Could Deny The Horror
    El Nino Chuckie Savages Naysayers
    The Wild Child’s Tempestuous Arrival Leaves Skeptics Scattered
    Birth of Boisterous Baby Boy Causes Gaia To Have a Maternal Meltdown
    When El Nino Viene, of Deniers There Aren’t Many
    Alarming Street Celebrations for El Nino Cagwando’s Arrival
    True Believers Celebrate El Nino’s Second Coming Joyfully

  29. • This is what global warming looks like.
    • Though it’s natural, this is just a taste of things to come.
    • It’s going to bet much worse than this if we don’t mend our eeeeeevil ways.

  30. • Global warming on steroids.
    • Get ready for Thermageddon.
    • A sure sign of climate change.
    • Positive proof of global warming.

  31. “MONSTER EL NINO SWALLOWS KEVIN TRENBERTH”

    Dr. Trenberth, a highly respected climatologist known for theorizing that the missing heat is hiding in the ocean depths, ignored the warnings of his colleagues and tried to take the El Nino’s temperature. The fearsome beast took exception to the insertion of a thermometer into its hind parts, and swallowed him whole.

    “Kevin was praying for a super el nino,” his friend MIchael Mann lamented. “We all were. But it turned out to be even worse than we thought. Kevin was a true hero. The whole thing is a terrible travesty. I mean tragedy.”

  32. • A climate change monster rises from the deep.
    • The sleeping giant of global warming awakes.
    • Widespread panic in the Pacific – steam jets rise from the deep.
    • Wine to suffer. :-)

  33. ” We TOLD you so!”
    (;p) Pamela Grey at 3:16 pm…my glasses make CC=DD…does that make me a normal man ? (;p)

    [If you wear glasses, would your icons not be (8p) Mod]

  34. WARMAGGEDON! EL NINO HIDDEN HUMAN HEAT ABOUT TO SPLUNGE ONTO CALIFORNIA! PACIFIC OCEAN COULD TURN RED AND BEACH VOLLEYBALL COULD DISAPPEAR BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY! (IT’S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT)

  35. God gave us poorer up close vision as we age for a reason. We all get better looking in bed as we age 8>))! Hell I could be Ann Margaret for all you know and you could be Burt!

  36. “Hell I could be Ann Margaret for all you know and you could be Burt!”

    Had to laugh Pamela. Have you seen Burt lately? Truthfully, I find the whole aging thing deeply depressing, so what else to do but make jokes..

    One of my favorite quotes “The greatest surprise in a man’s life is old age.” Boy, how true that’s turned out to be.

  37. Polar Bears and Penguins perish in humongous heat wave plastering the Pacific. Earth fries in gargantuan global gas furnace. The hockey stick climbs higher than the Empire State Building. Fires, cyclones, floods, droughts, wars and famines – we have it all. Abandon all hope, and your cars, all ye who live here. Urgent legislation and taxes needed to halt climate change.

  38. Headline: Catastrophic El Nino Projected to Wipe Out All Life on Earth; Women and Children Will be Hardest Hit.

    Subhead: Ahead of the disaster, Climate Scientist scurry to secure intellectual property rights to climate data and computer models.

  39. There will be a significant El Nino approaching +2.0C.

    The ocean in the Pacific has dozens and dozens of different currents. At the surface at the equator, the water moves from east to west, driven by the rotation of the Earth and the trade winds. 8 degrees away north and south, the surface current flows in the opposite direction, west to east. Much like if you moved your hand through a bathtub of water. In the middle, it goes the direction of hand movement/the trade winds. On the side, it moves back in the other direction.

    Now go down 150 metres. These currents also move in the opposite direction. The Pacific equator at 150 metres depth moves west to east and 8 degrees north and south latitude, it moves east to west.

    The equatorial west to east Pacific undercurrent, also known as the Cromwell Current, moves 1000 times more water than the Mississippi does.

    The undercurrent has, in fact, moved all the warm water in the western warm pool, down to 150 metres depth and then across, the entire Pacific, approximately 16,000 kms to the east in just 4 months. Yeah, 16,000 kms in just 4 months.

    This water is going to run up against the Galapagos Islands and it will upwell. It is getting pushed to the east by unknown trillions of tons of water across the entire Pacific at 150 metres depth which continues to move to the east. The flow rate is approximately 30 million cubic metres per second.

    The warm water, at +5.0C above normal, has nowhere to go except to the surface at the Galapagos Islands where it will form the El Nino. The upwelling will start within the next few weeks.

    It will be a non-typical timeline El Nino peaking much earlier in the year than the usual Christmas period.

  40. “Unprecedented Monster El Nino Serves as a Grim Reminder That Man-Made CO2 is Still the Crisis of Our Times”
    Subheadline
    “We Must Act Now – Major Politicians and Important Celebrities Agree That Massive Carbon-Tax is Our Only Hope for Sustainable Change”

  41. Just thought that you should all know that the ‘mother of all El Ninos’ has been called off through lack of interest.

  42. I vote for “mpaul”s prediction above as the one that made me splutter the most tea…..

    .
    “Headline: Catastrophic El Nino Projected to Wipe Out All Life on Earth; Women and Children Will be Hardest Hit.

    Subhead: Ahead of the disaster, Climate Scientist scurry to secure intellectual property rights to climate data and computer models.”

    Thank you kindly Sir.

  43. william fox says: April 12, 2014 at 3:25 pm
    “Its a thermageddon el nino folks , it came from the deep and wil fry us all.”

    Sigh.
    Boil, William. Not fry. Boil.

  44. We have had a cyclone Ita attack our North Queensland towns, not as bad as they predicted, but bad enough. Now are cyclones caused by El Nino or La Nina. I haven’t a clue. But QLD has about 5 cyclones a year, I thought they were just seasonal and a natural event. Some worse than others. We had a tornado in New England some months ago. It was local only, and destroyed one old house luckily the elderly occupant wasn’t hurt. Trees up rooted and old sheds dismantled. It was a rare event though, as are water spouts that become land falls. Even UK had a bad storm in 1986, and uprooted and destroyed l million trees. A rare event. Why can’t these alarmists accept the fact we do get extreme weather sometimes?

    I know that insurance companies are bitching, and raising premiums. One tried to explain why my insurance had gone up so much, and was very rude to me. You pay for tsunamis, bush fires and flooding. “What! I live in a town not the bush, I live no where near a flood area, and tsunamis, at 3,500 feet above sea level, mate, it would have to be an asteroid impact to reach me, and then we wouldn’t have to worry about insurance…” They did lower my insurance premium, I don’t mind paying for bush fire levy, as although they don’t affect our area and town, they are horrific.”

  45. EPA and the UN have formally postponed the upcoming El Niño due to a lack of proper permitting.
    They will continue to store excess heat in the ocean deep until such time all the paperwork is correct.

  46. Headline: It’s Baa-aaak!
    Sub-Headline: Super El Niño expected to end the global warming hiatus with a vengeance.

  47. El Niño headline #1:
    Unprecedented Super El Niño wipes out Anchovies – price of pizza soars.

    El Niño headline #2:
    A Callao Painter brings unprecedented stench (and paint shortage) to Peru’s coastal fishing villages. Link to CO2 99.9 % sure.

    El Niño headline #3:
    El Niño brings February rain to Seattle, Cascades get buried in snow. This hasn’t happened since the Puget Lobe covered the region in thousands of feet of ice 13,000 years ago. We are doomed.

  48. Whoops, forgot most important part:

    Headline: It’s Baa-aaak!
    Sub-Headline: Super El Niño expected to end the global warming hiatus with a vengeance, scientists say

  49. This just in. According to 101% of all scientists, the likelihood that man is causing global warming is now up to 117%.

  50. Early warning systems might help. Unfortunately, they don’t always turn out to be predictable, as cyclones, tend to hug coastal areas. But it is better to be warned than not. Solomon islands were hit by floods, and now an earthquake that caused a tsunami. Double jeopardy, eh.

  51. As Long Sequestered Deep Heat Rises, New Model Links Super El Nino to Chilean Earthquake/Indonesian Volcano/Moldovan Measles Outbreak/Childhood Obesity/Rise in Global Heroin Trade/Unprecedented Numbers of Deaths of Kittens

  52. Shouldn’t the CAGWers be here telling Bob that he should align the trends at the same y-axis starting anomaly point instead of the aligning the actual data? Isn’t that what they always whine about these days?

    Of course, if one did that, it’d shift the model data up another 0.2 C or so and make it look even worse compared to reality…

    -Scott

  53. “The Thriller In Manilla.”

    Becomes eight rounds of “Rope-A-Dope.”

    Even Howard Cosell falls asleep at the microphone in the seventh.

    Haha

    Her Majesties Federal Ship Ke[l]vin Tren[d]be[a]rth suffers explosions mid-ships and is listing the the waters.

    HMS Arc Royal rounds to “Cross The T” and send a torpedo barrage by Swordfish Fighters to Tren[d]be[a]rth and receiving heavy bombardment from Royal Navy Capital ships arriving on station to send her to the depths and all remaining crew. May God help them.

  54. bushbunny says:
    April 12, 2014 at 7:25 pm
    We have had a cyclone Ita attack our North Queensland towns, not as bad as they predicted, but bad enough. Now are cyclones caused by El Nino or La Nina. I haven’t a clue. But QLD has about 5 cyclones a year,

    I read somewhere that they are predicting a drought later this year around June July. The tanks and reservoirs must be full so thats all good. I hope further south too NSW and Victoria.

  55. El Nino, the Christmas child,
    in like a lamb,

    Thanks bushbunny and TRG, fun comments ( but I thought it was 105% of all scientists, you know the “margin of error is +/- 5%?).

  56. Well Northern Queensland and parts of the Northern Territory are in a monsoon belt. The big wet they call it. I wouldn’t want to live in those areas, as it is known cyclones can arrive during some months. I recall that in Coff’s harbour (NSW north coast) region, great fishing, it did have a shortage of water, and I was there when a tropical storm hit, and roads were flooded. It was frightening with the high winds and debris on the roads. One of our neighbors was in the same resort, and was with the SES. She told us to go before the roads were cut by floods.
    It happens. Up back on the tablelands, there wasn’t a drop.

  57. 1.”Galapagos Island turtles Roasted by Super El Nino. Best soup since 97.”

    2. “Apocalypse!! Super El Nino arrives with Second Blood Moon of 2014. (Oct 8). Heralds arrival of Second Horseman: War.”

    (first bloodmoon is In 4 days, timed to arrive with Russia’s “Conquest” of Ukraine next week according to the internet.)

    not that I believe that apocalypse stuff, but the wacko-blogosphere is on fire with this stuff rightnow.

  58. pokerguy says:

    April 12, 2014 at 5:59 pm

    “Hell I could be Ann Margaret for all you know and you could be Burt!”

    Had to laugh Pamela. Have you seen Burt lately? Truthfully, I find the whole aging thing deeply depressing, so what else to do but make jokes..

    One of my favorite quotes “The greatest surprise in a man’s life is old age.” Boy, how true that’s turned out to be.

    “Growing old is mandatory; acting old is optional.”

  59. The Pacific Equatorial Countercurrent has “moved” 5 degrees North of the equator! A second Intertropical Convergence Zone has formed in the Eastern Pacific! Blame Bob Tisdale and the rest of those climate warming deniers on WUWT.

  60. OT:
    The Global sea ice anomaly continues its current growth rate of >100,000 Km2/day and today passed +1.1 Million Km2.

  61. For years our models have predicted that industrial carbon dumped into our fragile atmospheric system would result in rapid climate changes and extreme events. We have once again been proven correct.

  62. Len, oh, I didn’t know! I thought carbon pollution caused SMOGS and acid rain? However, I don’t believe you and nor do other scientists.

  63. Vortex Induced Thermal Inversion Accelerates Energy Dump, Pacific Heat is back with a Vengeance.

  64. Acid Vortex Accelerates Pacific Torisade Effect. Massive Thermal Conduit Threatens Galapagos Tortoises.

  65. “Unprecedented Pacific warming points to dire future”
    “Hot Pacific indicate we have 15 years to stop Climate Change before it is too late”
    “Does El-Nino suggest it is already too late?”

  66. Don’t believe anything written by Michael Mann. If the weather turns nasty, there is bugger all we can do about it. That’s happened before, and we get terrible storms, and the insurance companies are now getting twitchy, that people build in flood areas and plains, earthquake and volcanic regions, and even bush fire places. If you wish to live in a jungle then you have to cope with co inhabitants, like nasty insects, and predatory animals. I was told never buy on a river bank, or beach, or on top of a cliff. Nor near a pub or school. I think we have learned lessons about how large cities and populations cause their own pollution, and its governments that need to install containment and some don’t.

  67. OK, I’ll give it a whirl;

    El Nino – The Heat Wave That Ate Cincinnati

    With apologies to Dr. Demento et al.

  68. Don’t worry about El Nino think more ice for polar bears. They found the skull of one in a cave in UK, that was deposited during the last ice age. Oh, dear, can you imagine it, “The Polar bears are coming,close your doors”. Stuff the El Nino or La Nina.

  69. Green Peace makes Hot Chili Pepper Symbol Of Climate Change!
    Its hot and chilly at the same time! says spokesperson.

    Eugene WR Gallun

  70. The long-awaited super El Niño has finally arrived but is weaker than expected. Scientists conclude that climate change is causing El Niños to become weaker and less frequent than normal. We are all doomed!

  71. I agree it won’t be called a “Super El Nino”. That is passe. It will have to be an “Extreme Super El Nino.”

    The media will continue to display a short attention span and forget what it was headlining a few months earlier. Where Obama connected the California dry spell to Global Warming, the El Nino rains will next get the blame: “Extreme Super El Nino Causes Mudslide On I-5; Global Warming Blamed.”

    Joe Bastardi suggests that although there will be fewer hurricanes next fall, the few that do develop are likely to form in close to the USA coast, and even may create a situation resembling 1954, when the east coast got Carol, Edna and Hazel. However I’ve been awaiting such a year ever since the AMO turned warm, and it doesn’t happen. No matter. Even if a minimal hurricane skims up the east coast the headline will be “Extreme Super El Nino Caused Hurricane Damages 2000000% More Laptop Computers Than Hurricane Bob In 1992. Global Warming Blamed.”

    When the El Nino barely reaches moderate status, and then abruptly fades away, it is likely the media will conveniently forget they made the fuss they made, however perhaps an enterprising young reporter will attempt to concoct a story beneath the banner, “Extreme Super El Nino’s Unprecedented Demise Threatens World Peace. Global Warming Blamed”.

  72. Michael Mann, Al Gore, and Flim Flam Flannery emigrate to the Southern Hemisphere to avoid El Nino. Oh, Tim is already here I think.

  73. O/T/ Jo Nova, three more men have resigned from Frontiers. Check it out eh? I’ve got to bathe the dog.

  74. “Ocean Warming Linked To Increased Earthquake Activity”

    Absolutely. Two-fer-one scaremongering.

  75. Why? Everything up to Earth explosion has already been published and cAGW faithfuls seem capable of running SCIgen.

  76. ‘Boy locked in fridge eats own foot’. Reuters today reported that a small boy was locked in an abandoned refrigerator, and ended up eating his own foot. Scientists say that the unprecedented global heat this summer caused the door to stick shut. In the dark, the boy mistook his foot for a side of beef, and began to consume his own body part. Police say the boy was only locked in the fridge for 20 minutes. Dr David Viner said, “The boy will never know skateboarding”. Global warming campaigner, Michael Mann, has called on the UN to ensure refrigerators always have the light on, even when they are broken and abandoned. Speaking from his villa poolside, Professor Mann said that even if something is broken and abandoned, it can still be dangerous. Grant Foster has refused to comment.

  77. 1) Super “Kal-El” Nino causes fire and brimstone to fall from skies, rivers and seas to boil
    2) Scientists: Extreme weather patterns will cause forty years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanoes
    3) Zombie climate causes dead to rise from the grave
    4) Fear of extreme weather inspires human sacrifice, dogs and cats to live together, mass hysteria
    5) Trenberth to Mann: “Hey, which way do these temperatures go?” “They go up!”

    (with apologies to Black Rhino Productions, Columbia Pictures Corporation, Delphi Productions, and the cast & crew of Ghostbusters)

  78. ‘Natural phenomenon is possibly being made worse by climate change’ says climate scientist desperate to hold on to funding until his kids are through college.

  79. A severely unprecedented super el nino vortex brings worse than expected floods, drought, snow and extremist weather. As predicted.

  80. El Nino not as big as predicted due to human admitted CO2.

    Yes a strange duck but yes I doubt this El Nino will be big and yes they will blame CO2 for that. No not all CO2 but just the one human produces.

  81. Global warming strikes the UK – outbreaks of mass weekend pic-nics and happy smiley people !!!

  82. Sou of Hot Whopper wrote a post responding to this one, claiming Bob Tisdale had somehow “fudged” a graph. I saw a tweet linking to it, got curious and checked it out. You can see what I found here:

    http://hiizuru.wordpress.com/2014/04/13/checking-work/

    It turns out the reason Sou was unable to get the same graph Tisdale got is one of them grabbed data from the Pacific Ocean; the other grabbed data from everywhere else. Any guesses on who did which?

  83. Hot Seas Mean Less Than Ten Years To Prevent Climate Catastrophe

    There’s my headline bet. It will be followed by a story of how several of the world’s most respected and eminent climate scientists are convening in some luxury resort in the Bahamas to discuss how to communicate their message that we must Save The Planet before Christmas 2024 – which, of course, is just far enough in the future for the MSM to conveniently forget all about the prediction by the time it fails.

  84. The irony is that ENSO is an entirely natural phenomena but the AGW proponents want to claim it as down to AGW. Just shows how low they have to go to try and find the most inapt peice of ‘evidence’ they can find to show they were right. perhaps it is time to start pushing the fact that a natural warming is potentially on the horizon, if the sceptics can be shown to be able to predict better than the models, then the agw ‘scientists’ will be in the dunce corner longer.

  85. - U2 frontman Bono slams G8 leaders for failing to act to save the planet

    – Religious leaders tell governments to act, while we still can

    – Richard Branson: The warning signals have always been there – we’ve just failed to do anything about them

    – BBC: Is voting Labour the last chance for people to save the planet, after super El Niño rocks Tory Prime Minister

  86. Terror created by El Nino threat and Cyclone Ita caused trapped patrons, to get roaring drunk. (This happened in Australia), When the roof flew off the local pub, patrons didn’t mind as they had saved all the grog in an adjacent bottle shop. “That’s what true blue Aussies do went we are faced with climate change, we say ‘Stuff you!”

  87. Pamela Gray says:
    “First, it will not be big or super anything (men…they always think things are bigger than they are). What counts is overall column heat.”

    So it’s not size that matters, it’s overall column heat.

    Thanks for giving us a female perspective.

  88. Ronald says: El Nino not as big as predicted due to human admitted CO2.

    That’ll be about right.

  89. “El Nono – climate change suppresses El Nino, heat still hiding in ocean says climate scientist”

  90. Polar bears will all die because they ran out of penguins to eat due to the polar vortex combining with El Niño into a tipping point called Niño Vortex!

  91. Pamela Gray says:
    April 12, 2014 at 3:16 pm

    Jim, of course the Sun heats the oceans. But the miniscule amount of solar change that you speak of cannot, CANNOT be detected in ocean heat anomaly measures. You do understand that of course.

    Pamela, actually it can be detected in ocean heat anomaly measures. There is more effect on the oceans from the Sun than people seem to be aware of.

    See:
    Using the Oceans as a Calorimeter to Quantify the Solar Radiative Forcing
    Nir J. Shaviv

    Abstract.
    Over the 11-year solar cycle, small changes in the total solar irradiance (TSI) give rise to small variations in the global energy budget. It was suggested, however, that different mechanisms could amplify solar activity variations to give large climatic effects, a possibility which is still a subject of debate. With this in mind, we use the oceans as a calorimeter to measure the radiative forcing variations associated with the solar cycle. This is achieved through the study of three independent records, the net heat flux into the oceans over 5 decades, the sea level change rate based on tide gauge records over the 20th century, and the sea surface temperature variations. Each of the records can be used to consistently derive the same oceanic heat flux. We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles variations is about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated with the TSI variations, thus implying the necessary existence of an amplification mechanism, though without pointing to which one.

  92. A headline or three:

    Pause in Global Warming ended by Unprecedented Super El Nino

    McKibben Blames Rising Temperatures on XL Pipeline Decision

    Trenberth Vindicated says Schmidt

  93. I would think that there is a fair contingent of media types, reporters, sub editors, editors and etc who give WUWT the once over on a very regular basis to try and keep themselves up to speed with this climate and science caper.
    That same media likes to think they are taken seriously and don’t like it one little bit when a whole raft of people take the mickey out of their headline writing editors on a web site as prominent as WUWT as is happening with this headline blog post
    Because it shows that they becoming out of touch with a fairly large group of the decision makers in the public, those ordinary faceless men and women who others will regularly quote as having said this or that and who consequently are the ones who shape public opinion at street and pub level.
    And when you lose those street level decision makers you have near enough lost the entire plot.
    And WUWT, Jo Nova, Bishop Hill and the other well patronised skeptic blogs are inhabited by those street level and often much higher than street level decision makers, those individuals who are prepared to speak their minds and are open about their beliefs which is why they comment on the high profile skeptic blogs in the first place and on a subject where they know they are regarded as pariahs by a considerable part of the populace because they do not believe as do the CAGW ideologists and are quite prepared to loudly say so.
    [ Although who is now the pariah is becoming somewhat of a moot point as the great wheel of human affairs continues right on rolling as always and the other side starts to come up as it always does. ]
    The denizens of the skeptic blogs openly state their minds about their beliefs surrounding most items that are intrinsic and of importance to our society, civilisation and survival such as climate, science. politics and politicians, bureaucrats and of course the Media which is regarded as somewhere in the bottom ten percent of the levels of respectability by those street level decision makers.

    So with the mickey being taken out of the headline writers in the media by the WUWT and other denizens of other skeptic blogs I would suggest that come say around June and July when we would expect to see an El Nino getting under way IF the experts haven’t got it all wrong again as they have re El Nino’s for most of the last decade, somewhat like some of the girls I knew some sixty ago, they seem to ready to offer many promises but always managed to avoid delivering.

    In many media outlets after WUWT denizens working over the future media headlines on a potential El Nino I think there might be a much more subdued and circumspect approach to the headlines and headline stories on the El Nino from a much wider array of media outlets than if posts such as this one that Anthony has put up, had never appeared and all you denizens had the chance to give a right royal raspberry to the sensationalist promoting media headline writers.

    Of course there will still be a wide range of the media, the real wacky publicity at all costs media outlets who just can’t help themselves but prolong their stay in the gutter of sensationalism for sensationalism’s sake.
    Or maybeand far more likely, they just aren’t smart enough to know a fact when they actually see one.
    But thats the media !
    Need any more be said?

  94. Main – “Breaking: Strong Natural Cooling Trend Is Overwhelmed By Co2 Driven Warming”

    Subs – “Experts Warn: Warming Consistent With Climate Models..
    – It’s Worse Than We Thought..
    – Tipping Point Is Near..
    – We Must Act Now..

    – Oh, and Add A Zero To My Grant!”

    Voice over – “Scary pictures of Steam From A Chimney at 11″

  95. Brandon Shollenberger says: “Sou of Hot Whopper wrote a post responding to this one, claiming Bob Tisdale had somehow “fudged” a graph…”

    Thanks, Brandon. I reblogged your post. But, since Sou deleted her errors, I want to call attention to the archived uncorrected edition of Sou’s post you saved:

    http://archive.is/x1pQC

    Thanks for saving it.

    I also want to link my reply to Sou at your blog, since she corrected the mistake in the post but followed it with another in a comment:

    http://hiizuru.wordpress.com/2014/04/13/checking-work/#comment-877

    Cheers!

  96. Predicted La Nina Overwhelmed by Massive El Nino.
    We just won’t know what La Nina’s are anymore.

  97. In today’s Sunday Telegraph their weather expert has a piece on the naming of hurricanes and the prediction for the upcoming season. Strangely he fails to mention the total failure of last year’s predictions to come close to actuality.

  98. TomR,Worc,MA,USA says: April 12, 2014 at 3:04 pm “Does anyone know how to say “The death of skepticism” in Latin?” LOL

    I asked G00gle translate and it responded, “[i]et cessabit mare a morte[/i].” When I reversed the implication, I got [b]quiet death[/b]. How appropriate!

    • Try carats instead of brackets, thusly:

      and without the spaces to get and
      and w/out space to get and

  99. These () to close. Lol, this is fun, trying to outwit the coding. This board (unlike some others) is really “forgiving” I guess.

  100. As I have said on previous posts on this topic, my best analysis is that there will be no super EL Nino later this year .We will likely see a weak El Nino only. I don’t see a strong El Nino until late this decade. My analysis is based on historical Ocean cycles and the pattern of El Ninos that existed wit them . Strong or super El Ninos are less frequent during the cooler phases of ocean cycles.

  101. goldminor says:
    April 12, 2014 at 3:40 pm
    I think that they will be very disappointed by the end of the summer……………………………………………………
    I know I always am!

  102. Super Giant El Niño causes world economic chaos and war.

    The NATO economic powers that be are about to unleash Economic Hounds From Hell on Russia. Drive the Ruble into the ground, bankrupt RUSAL & a few others and kill their bond market. Risk of ‘gas wars’ grows as Ukraine halts payments.

    Ukraine prepares armed response as city seized by pro-Russia forces

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBREA3A1B520140412

    Things are getting dicey…
    If bank Q1 results continue disappointing and primary industries do too it’s not looking good. Especially if China and Japan economic stats continue breathtaking drops as seen this week, EU & US will follow.

  103. This thou predictionictess hath presently been previously doneth

    Needeth I sayeth moreth?

  104. No warming in the global temperature no warming on the sea surface. It’s really no fun to beat down the alarmists anymore, they’re just too easy of a target.

  105. Here are the only possibilities related to the El Nino:

    “Warming Planet Leads To Record Breaking Strong El Nino”

    “Warming Planet Leads To Record Breaking Weak El Nino”

    “Warming Planet Leads To Normal El Nino”

    “Warming Planet Leads to Disappearance of Expected El Nino”

    No matter what happens with the El Nino, the headlines will blame it on global warming.

  106. The first headline: “Super El Niño proves man-made climate change”

    Followed 3-4 months later: ” Chance of full El Nino fades as winds shift”

    then 2 months later “Possible La Niña forming”

  107. Scientists were right: no El Niño this year means it’s still to come!
    or
    El Niño: Scientist Say We Told You So!
    or
    No El Niño this year: climate sceptics debunked at last!
    or
    Worst El Niño ever: climate sceptics debunked at last!

  108. “2014 El Nino proves that Earth is angry, scientists say. It may already be too late.”

    “Recent El Nino is a ominous sign of things to come as heat buried in oceans due to global warming surfaces. The pause is officially over and will never return unless drastic action is taken by the countries whose people live with lots of civil rights and money.”

    “Climate scientist John Cook has been warning everyone about the amount of heat equivalent to Hiroshima bombs we are adding to our atmosphere daily. ‘I am become El Nino, the destroyer of worlds,’ says John Cook, a reference to the famous J. Robert Oppenheimer quote after the first American atomic bomb test.”

  109. “Global Warming Bubbles to the Surface!”

    “It’s on the loose. It’s out there. It’s coming for you.”

    “We’re all going to fry. We need urgent action. We need more money, Tax everything!”

    Etc., etc.

  110. Headlines to expect regardless of El Niño outcome:
    1. El Niño: Climate change deniers left speechless
    2. Climate deniers scurry for cover as El Niño takes unexpected turn
    3. 97% of scientists agree that climate change responsible for El Niño.
    4. Scientists fear climate change may cause El Niño to move to North Atlantic

  111. Global Warming Causes Record Rainfall in California, Produce Prices Tumbler After Record Harvest.

  112. Knee jerk quick idiocy.

    Killer Klimate Kompels Konfiscation

    Climate Shatters – Governments Respond

    SkepticGate Exposes Deniers Hate

    Climate Models Call For Marshall Law

    Earth’s Fever Worries Universe

    Al Gore Visits Federation of Planets

    Climate Changes Fresh Water Evaporates to Space

  113. HELLFIRE! GLOBAL WARMING ERUPTS IN FURY! DEATH TOLL INCREASING!
    (photo of a dying man on a sizzling Paris sidewalk)
    (It was just an alcoholic sleeping it off, it is revealed a couple of months later)

  114. Hansen will no doubt be wheeled out to tell us that we only have “4 years left…” yet again.

  115. Headlines:

    • NASA GISS says El Niño marks the end of the “pause”

    • El Niño fades before the California rainy season

    • California AG interests despair over dry winter

  116. “Joe Bastardi suggests that although there will be fewer hurricanes next fall, the few that do develop are likely to form in close to the USA coast, and even may create a situation resembling 1954, when the east coast got Carol, Edna and Hazel. ”

    Bastardi is a climate skeptic of course, but he’s also an inveterate alarmist. He predicts east coast hurricane Armageddon every year. One of these years he’ll be right, and he’ll cover himself in glory. But those of us who’ve been following him for a long enough time won’t be impressed. Too bad, as he’s a talented guy, but his bias really gets in the way. In 7 years for e.g., I’ve never seen him underplay a snow storm. Not once. When he’s wrong, which is frequently, it’s always on the too severe side. Always. It’s really quite amazing.

  117. In line with prior predictions based on PDO phase I judge that we are at about the 1962 analogue of the Last PDO cycle. 1958 to 1962 were all nada years (sound familiar?). 1963-64 was a moderate Nino (like -.9 SOI). 64-5 was a moderate Nina, and 65-6 was a strong Nino.

    The tendency since WWII has been to transition from nadas to Ninos rather than Ninas.

    Prediction: weak to moderate Nino, @-.75 SOI.

    No money down.

  118. Nobody has yet metioned the Humboldt Current in all this. It has got to be a major component in the whole ENSO system – surely! Right now it seems to have ‘gone to sleep’. Is this this a regular occurence? Could it have resulted from some slackening of the West Wind Drift and the Westerly Winds (Roaring Forties etc.)? This doesn’t seem to have happened in the last couple of years.
    I’m wondering if the Roaring Forties etc. will become re-established in the looming Southern Hemisphere winter, and if they do, whether the Humboldt Current will get going again. And if the Humboldt Current gets going again, what effect that will have on the El Nino?

  119. Headline in New York Times:
    We’re all going to die! We’re all going to die! Run for your lives!

  120. BBC, IPCC, Al Gore confirm, regular, expected and widely predicted El Nino weather pattern in 2015 will see Polar Icecaps melt by 2014 – or maybe grow…. Kinda.

  121. “Massive El Nino Signals Climate Tipping Point Has Been Reached”
    “Related: Re-analysis of Mayan Calendar Shows End of World Approaching”

  122. One day at a time folks, whether it is El Nino or La Nina, one thing for sure, the sun is always shining during the day. Whether it gets through because of clouds, is another query these climate alarmists cannot understand.

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