Yesterday, my local reservoir, Lake Oroville, made the front page of Drudge. The photo below shows the Highway 162 suspension bridge and the Bidwell Marina, which is almost in the center of the lake now. The last time I was there at this very spot in September, boat launch ramps were still operable. From what I hear now, they are past the asphalt and down to mud for anyone that dares to try.
Below are two photos from the NASA MODIS imaging system that show California from the Los Angeles area north to the Oregon border. One if from January 13th, 2013, and the other is from January 14th, 2014.
The lack of snowpack in the northern Sierra Nevada is quite significant and the visual difference between years is stunning.
On Thursday, I was on Shasta Lake north of Redding, CA and took this photo of the Interstate 5 bridge crossing the reservoir. While you can’t see it in this photo, there still is water under the bridge. Shasta is the largest reservoir in California, and is down from its historical average by nearly half.
Of course, this is hardly new, low water levels have been seen on this lake before, such as in September 2005:
What is new is that the lake level is so low in winter, there’s no appreciable inflow, it continues to drop, AND there’s little snow-pack to replenish it.The US drought monitor shows the current situation:
![20140114_usdm_home[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/20140114_usdm_home1.png?quality=75)
Plus, California population has increased dramatically while water storage has not. That’s a testament to poor planning and the hands of environmentalists and their campaigns to stop new water storage systems. Some are saying this drought is in “uncharted territory”.
“Uncharted territory” has been a phrase spoken by many during recent water conversations. The population in California has doubled since 1977, many more permanent crops have been planted and more refuges established.
Source: http://www.chicoer.com/news/ci_24939467/governors-drought-declaration-leaves-no-doubt-butte-county
And the cause of this? Certainly not “global warming” though I’m sure the activist idiots will use every trick in the book to try to create a linkage. The cause is a the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weak to neutral and persistent La Niña pattern that some are calling “La Nada”. Bob Tisdale has a good summary on the PDO situation and how it is also related to “the pause” in global warming. The ocean rules the climate system.
The paper Chylek et al describes the linkage of ocean cycles to climate of the southwestern USA.
In the graph below, you can see that pattern has been in place since the strong La Niña of 2010. In 1997/98 when the huge El Niño occurred, California had so much water that dams were full and fears of flooding abounded. You can also see the long stretch of drought in the mid to late 1970’s reflected in this graph.
Yesterday, Governor Brown declared a drought emergency, which is probably a bit too late. He held up this graph showing precipitation by water year. In California, a water year is from July 1st to June 30th.
Here’s the source of data for that graph, showing that Governor Brown’s graph doesn’t quite tell the entire story since the peaks are muted and only the filtered values are used. His graph also only goes back to 1970. The next closest dry year was 1898, so the idea that this is “uncharted territory” for California is an accurate statement.
Here is the PR from the Governor’s office yesterday:
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SAN FRANCISCO – With California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today proclaimed a State of Emergency and directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these drought conditions.
“We can’t make it rain, but we can be much better prepared for the terrible consequences that California’s drought now threatens, including dramatically less water for our farms and communities and increased fires in both urban and rural areas,” said Governor Brown. “I’ve declared this emergency and I’m calling all Californians to conserve water in every way possible.”
In the State of Emergency declaration, Governor Brown directed state officials to assist farmers and communities that are economically impacted by dry conditions and to ensure the state can respond if Californians face drinking water shortages. The Governor also directed state agencies to use less water and hire more firefighters and initiated a greatly expanded water conservation public awareness campaign (details at saveourh2o.org).
In addition, the proclamation gives state water officials more flexibility to manage supply throughout California under drought conditions.
State water officials say that California’s river and reservoirs are below their record lows. Manual and electronic readings record the snowpack’s statewide water content at about 20 percent of normal average for this time of year.
The Governor’s drought State of Emergency follows a series of actions the administration has taken to ensure that California is prepared for record dry conditions. In May 2013, Governor Brown issued an Executive Order to direct state water officials to expedite the review and processing of voluntary transfers of water and water rights. In December, the Governor formed a Drought Task Force to review expected water allocations, California’s preparedness for water scarcity and whether conditions merit a drought declaration. Earlier this week, the Governor toured the Central Valley and spoke with growers and others impacted by California’s record dry conditions.
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And what is on the horizon? Hopefully an El Niño, which will also get blamed on/connected to “global warming”. if the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.
From the WUWT ENSO Reference Page:
![nino34Mon[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/nino34mon1.gif)
UPDATE: This stament from NOAA is relevant. (h/t to Roger Pielke Sr.)
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PDT FRI JAN 17 2014
...GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN DECLARES A DROUGHT STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR
CALIFORNIA ON JANUARY 17TH 2014...
...THE USDA HAS DECLARED A DROUGHT DESIGNATION FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY FOR 2014 FOR ELIGIBLE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS...
...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...
SYNOPSIS...
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA HAVE EXPERIENCED TWO BELOW
AVERAGE RAINFALL SEASONS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN RESERVOIR AND
GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. THE MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL
VEGETATION FOR MID-WINTER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
CONCERN. THESE CONDITIONS WERE ELEVATED TO AN EXTREME DROUGHT
DEPICTION (D3) ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAPS WITHIN ORANGE COUNTY
IN MID JANUARY 2014. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT
INTO FIVE CATEGORIES OF INCREASING SEVERITY: ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0)...MODERATE DROUGHT (D1)...SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)...EXTREME DROUGHT
(D3)...AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4).
PLEASE NOTE THAT NEITHER NOAA NOR THE NWS DECLARES DROUGHTS.
DROUGHTS IN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA ARE DECLARED BY THE GOVERNOR
THROUGH THE RECOMMENDATION OF THE CALIFORNIA STATE DEPARTMENT OF
WATER RESOURCES AND THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST. HOWEVER...LOCAL
OFFICIALS CAN DECLARE LOCAL DROUGHT OR WATER EMERGENCIES AT TIMES
WHEN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA HAS NOT DECLARED AN OFFICIAL DROUGHT.
LOCAL WATER PURVEYORS CAN ALSO IMPLEMENT VOLUNTARY OR MANDATORY
RESTRICTIONS ON WATER USAGE IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OR FORECAST WATER
SUPPLY CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF DROUGHT DECLARATIONS. THIS DROUGHT
STATEMENT PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF PERTINENT INFORMATION TO ENHANCE
PUBLIC AWARENESS OF DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF IMPORTED WATER.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO DRY TO
CRITICAL LEVELS IN MANY AREAS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER HAS ALSO REDUCED THE
AVAILABILITY OF RANGE LAND GRASSES FOR LIVESTOCK. WHERE LOCAL WELLS
ARE FED BY RAINFALL AND LOCAL RUNOFF...SOME SHALLOW WELLS MAY BE
GOING DRY OR HAVE ALREADY DRIED UP. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF THIS WINTER HAS LOWERED THE FLOW IN THE SAN
DIEGO RIVER...RESULTING IN STRESSES ON THE VEGETATION AND
WILDLIFE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN ONE OF THE DRIEST AREAS IN OUR REGION OVER
THE PAST FEW YEARS. WESTERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER RECORDS FROM THE
SANTA ANA FIRE STATION INDICATE 2013 WAS THE THIRD DRIEST...AND THE
THREE YEAR PERIOD ENDING DECEMBER 2013 WAS THE FIFTH DRIEST. RAINS
HAVE BEEN MORE GENEROUS FARTHER SOUTH IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE
LINDBERGH FIELD LOGS BOTH 2013 AND THE THREE YEAR PERIOD 2010-2013
AS ONLY THE 20TH DRIEST ON RECORD.
A WELL-DEVELOPED MONSOON IN LATE SUMMER HELPED TO RAISE SEASONAL
RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY FOR SELECTED CITIES...
DECEMBER 2013 SINCE JULY 1 2013
REPORTED % OF NORMAL REPORTED % OF NORMAL
NEWPORT BEACH 0.31 17% 0.69 20%
TUSTIN 0.98 41% 1.91 41%
IDYLLWILD 1.47 40% 7.77 80%
RIVERSIDE 0.16 10% 1.15 36%
PALM SPRINGS TRACE 0% 1.26 45%
BIG BEAR LAKE 1.02 33% 5.50 70%
REDLANDS 0.16 10% 2.54 61%
EL MIRAGE 0.03 4% 2.14 101%
BORREGO SPRINGS 0.00 0% 4.35 168%
CAMPO 0.78 34% 5.57 100%
LAKE CUYAMACA 1.71 35% 11.88 99%
LINDBERGH FIELD 0.46 30% 2.24 68%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY
WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS HOLDING A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY IS INDICATING A
BETTER THAN 70% CHANCE OF CONTINUED DRIER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
WEATHER.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WITH NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH MARCH 2014.
NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY
FEBRUARY 17TH...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEBSITES...
GOVERNORS EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION: WWW.GOV.CA.GOV/NEWS.PHP?ID18368.
CALIFORNIA DATA EXCHANGE CENTER: CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/
CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER: WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/
DROUGHT MONITOR: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT PAGE: WATERSUPPLYCONDITIONS.WATER.CA.GOV/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO: WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/SGX/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT MONITOR
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
CALIFORNIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS SOUTHERN DISTRICT
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...PLEASE REFER ALL QUESTIONS TO
W-SGX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV.
&&
JAD
END
Maybe they should divert that high-speed rail money to something more practical like reservoirs or desalinization plants.
I can feel for those now having to live through the drought, but…
(sarc on) It appears the drought conditions are moving westward. Last year they were in the Midwest. Now they’re in the West. Will the Pacific be experiencing drought next year? (sarc off)
Fill up those ships carrying South Carolina wood pellets to England with Somerset flood water for the return trip. Then the cycle of environmentalist insanity will be complete.
Solar powered desalinization makes a lot more sense than solar powered electricity.
So ONI is a new one for me. The ONI chart does not “click for a large image”, but I think it says this is some kind of 3 month average of the Nino 3.4 model? Moving or boxcar?
Maybe Californian can buy some slightly used desalinization plants from Australia CHEAP?
Whilst I am sure the UK’s Met Office has similar hopes their forecast begs to differ:-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina
Which only goes to show – nobody knows! Only time will tell
How many California municipal water systems will run dry by Labor Day? What is the plan for providing water to multiple municipalities with millions of residents and thousands of swimming pools? The chemical spill situation in Charleston, WV, last week was bad, but miniscule compared to not having any water at all.
In 1973 while in the Army National Guard, I was dispatched with a small tanker to refill in a small town while supporting wildland fire-fighting. The local fire department would not refill us from a hydrant; their well was extremely low. Had to head off to a larger town much further away. Not the best situation. In the past 40 years, California’s population more than doubled. Just how does a state with the water infrastructure for 20 million people support 38 million, extensive agriculture and continue aggressive fire-fighting?
Drought of the century? Does this make it the biggest drought in 14 years?
With a cold PDO CONTINUING, any ENSO forecast is highly questionable!
I am reminded of John Christy’s comment of several years ago, when he discussed decade long droughts a millennium ago, and pointed out that a repeat of such a occurrence would stress land-use and water planning in the Southwest. It may not be that severe a drought yet, but this should be a wake up call to the planners.
plus they are busting up the dams and letting water rush to the sea for the coho – 925 significant dams in the American West is a big play for the environmental movement, and barely reported. Plus up in the headwaters of every major river system, little dams and weirs are being plucked out – the land goes to desert within a year.
Go ahead, build cities in the desert. Then, build some more. Learn from your suffering.
“If the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.”
Those models have been predicting an El Nino for a while now. They have no skill unfortunately. We need a pattern change and the high pressure ridge to break down but I don’t see that happening any time soon. There just isn’t enough amplitude right now to break it down.
Desalination would seem to be good investment if drought is periodic. Personal ones from $1000 to $5000 producing 1 quart to 7 gallons an hour (yachtsmen know these things).
http://www.portablewaterfilters.org/saltwater-desalinators-reviews/katadyn-powersurvivor-40e-desalinator-review/
I can’t see why a sun-heated still or solar “fired” one can’t easily be developed – the tech is bozo simple. A way for an individual in the wildnerness to get water in a dry season – several litres overnight, is to dig a pit put a plastic sheet over it and a stone in the middle of it to make an inverted cone and a pot at the base of the pit to catch the water. Choose a dry stream bed for best results.
http://www.wikihow.com/Make-Water-in-the-Desert
Yeah, yeah, I know, a bit scoutsy, but it could save your life!
Hopefully an El Niño, which will also get blamed on/connected to “global warming”. if the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.
Well, watching the model ensemble the last couple of years was really difficult to find a month when they were right, just saying.
I read the NY Times article, and the comments there were very much ‘global warming did it.’ Carbontology is going to have, ahem, a ‘watershed’ year in advancing their narrative in the People’s Republic of California.
California need to urgently start building de-salination plants, like Australia did, to prepare for the future of permanent drought. PS as soon as Australia started building these permanent drought structures they were mothballed. I wonder why? Could it have has anything to do with the Biblical floods that followed. These fools are reacting to natural climate change and they just don’t know it. They are peeing into the wind.
Permanent drought predicted – 2007
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2007/09/06/201842/australia-faces-the-permanent-dry-as-do-we/
‘Biblical floods’ occurred – 2011
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jan/02/queensland-biblical-floods-australia
Where is Noah? We must save our beloved creatures. I don’t mean wild animals I mean the domesticated animals we call Warmists.
—————-
Maybe one day there will be a meeting of minds. Here in the UK, a group of islands stuck out in the ocean over which the predominate winds blow, we go ahead and build on flood plains.
Well it’s not on his chart,so technically it is uncharted for that discussion.
I am hoping we do develop an el nino later in 2014 – all western watersheds could use it. I am not real optimistic though – with the PDO isn the cold phase, it does seem hard to develop a substantial el nino.
In Colorado, the mtns are doing OK – about normal YTD for snowpack – mostly from orographic snows in the NW flow, but east of the mtns is very dry. Denver is at 50% of normal snow with no precip for at least another week & maybe even beyond that. Both the Euro & GFS have been inconsistent with storms & generally dry, looking further into the future. East of the mtns, our winter moisture is also pretty strongly correlated with the ENSO cycle (el nino – wetter; la nada or la nina = drier).
Over in Western Europe, on the same latitudes as California, it has been one of the wettest winters ever.
This is obviously the fault of global warming/climate change/whatever.
However, don’t bet on any new dams being built, the ecoloons will make sure of that.
This month the SOI index has moved positive – towards La Nina – both 30day and 90 day averages are trending more positive.
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
So just now any talk of El Nino is a touch creative.
I agree the CFSv2 model ensemble forecast has been very unskillful. What’s the easiest way to finf the earlier ensemble forecasts and why would the present MET Office forecast be contrary to the NOAA forecast?
In Australia we have many mothballed desalination plants we can sell to California and maybe recoup some of the billions we spent by our leaders who foolishly listened to the Greens whose mantra was “It will never rain again in Australia.” Result, most dams nearly full and some overflowing.
Hang in there, the rains will return.