While we’ve known about this for quite some time at WUWT, going back to August 2013, the story is now starting to make the rounds in the MSM.
And, NASA has created a cool visualization of the event. Video follows. From the NASA video description:
This visualization shows the position of the sun’s magnetic fields from January 1997 to December 2013. The field lines swarm with activity: The magenta lines show where the sun’s overall field is negative and the green lines show where it is positive. A region with more electrons is negative, the region with less is labeled positive. Additional gray lines represent areas of local magnetic variation.
The entire sun’s magnetic polarity, flips approximately every 11 years — though sometimes it takes quite a bit longer — and defines what’s known as the solar cycle. The visualization shows how in 1997, the sun shows the positive polarity on the top, and the negative polarity on the bottom. Over the next 12 years, each set of lines is seen to creep toward the opposite pole eventually showing a complete flip. By the end of the movie, each set of lines are working their way back to show a positive polarity on the top to complete the full 22 year magnetic solar cycle.
At the height of each magnetic flip, the sun goes through periods of more solar activity, during which there are more sunspots, and more eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, or CMEs. The point in time with the most sunspots is called solar maximum.
Credit: NASA/GSFC/PFSS
The WUWT solar reference page has this revealing plot from Dr. Leif Svalgaard:
Solar Polar Fields – Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present
Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at sourceDiscover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I don’t think that the MSM gives a stuff, unless there’s money in it. Alarm stories get the readers; all else is simply padding.
But we’ve been assured by East Anglia and Trenberth that there are no Global-temperature-relevant parameters that are sun related. How can this be? /sarc-off
They haven’t found a way to blame humankind for the sun’s magnetic field flipping, or I’m sure it would be big news, demanding much funding, taxing and cut-backs (for us, of course). Too bad it couldn’t be caused by global warming… although someone somewhere is probably working on the idea.
Questions for a solar scientist: does the sun’s magnetic flip change TSI any? Do TSI measurements integrate all solar outputs including flares, CMEs, filament eruptions, coronal hole emissions and subsequent electron & proton (solar wind) increases and lump them into this sole parameter? Is TSI an averaged number like SSN or 5-year running temperature averages? If so, what period of time over which TSI is averaged/smoothed?
Last question was supposed to be: If it is, over what period of time is TSI averaged/smoothed?
“By the end of the movie, each set of lines are working their way back to show a positive polarity on the top…”
When the movie ends, the positive polarity (green) is still on the bottom. Does the movie cut off too soon, or am I missing something?
The movie starts with green on top and then switches to green on bottom around the year 2000. It then moves around a bit, but stays on the bottom until the end of the movie. What am I missing?
Sure did take a long time to flip this time. 13-14 years.
Detailed position of the amplitude of polar field (updatred regularly) here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF.htm
What was wrong with using the standardized color for magnetic polarity? Red = Positive and Blue = Negative. Just saying!
It looks like 15 years of data was modeled for the animation, which suggests there is 7 years left of this solar cycle, putting solar minimum at 2020-2021, which seems just a bit to long.
Louis says:
December 30, 2013 at 2:02 pm
“The movie starts with green on top and then switches to green on bottom around the year 2000. It then moves around a bit, but stays on the bottom until the end of the movie. What am I missing?”
When the video begins the positive magnetic polarity (green) is on top and the negative magnetic polarity (pink/purple) is on the bottom, this is also solar minimum, When the magnetic polarities reach the suns equator this is when the solar maximum occurs. The end of the video shows the current solar maximum.
I’m sure this means were doomed.
Slow news day. That NASA vid was uploaded on the 5th of December. Gotta decorate fish and chip wrappers with something.
When magnetic field reversals are mentioned, term is often associated with the Earth’s magnetic field reversals. Fortunately, such events are rare (average 200-300 k years) and are far more sedate affairs :
Last reversal occurred more then 41 k years ago during the last ice age, it is known as the Laschamp event.
In the last 2-3 decades some more ‘rapid ‘ changes are observed; currently (2010) most of the Earth’s magnetic flux emanates from the Eastern Hemisphere:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GMFd.gif
Is this sign of another impending reversal?
Difficult to say, but for a statistician (which I am not) most likely not.
Sparks says:
December 30, 2013 at 2:45 pm
What was wrong with using the standardized color for magnetic polarity? Red = Positive and Blue = Negative. Just saying!
++++++++++++++
It’s Christmas time… you know, green and red? Otherwise it’s Fesitvus for the Rest of Us.
To my untrained eyes, it looks like the poles completed the flip around 2010… and then start edging towards the next cycle soon thereafter.
Bob Weber says:
December 30, 2013 at 1:42 pm
————-
The following article is not the answers to your questions but does have some relevant information, that you may find useful.
For all of us actually..
And Dr. S., found some newer articles that may make the hairs on the back of your neck stand up. Call Vera in for back up to smooth them back down. lol So, be prepared.. And Vuks you may be rather surprised or not?
WEAKEST SOLAR WIND OF THE SPACE AGE AND THE CURRENT “MINI” SOLAR MAXIMUM
D. J. McComas et al. 2013 ApJ
The last solar minimum, which extended into 2009, was especially deep and prolonged. Since then, sunspot activity has gone through a very small peak while the heliospheric current sheet achieved large tilt angles similar to prior solar maxima. The solar wind fluid properties and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have declined through the prolonged solar minimum and continued to be low through the current mini solar maximum. Compared to values typically observed from the mid-1970s through the mid-1990s, the following proton parameters are lower on average from 2009 through day 79 of 2013: solar wind speed and beta (~11%), temperature (~40%), thermal pressure (~55%), mass flux (~34%), momentum flux or dynamic pressure (~41%), energy flux (~48%), IMF magnitude (~31%), and radial component of the IMF (~38%). These results have important implications for the solar wind’s interaction with planetary magnetospheres and the heliosphere’s interaction with the local interstellar medium, with the proton dynamic pressure remaining near the lowest values observed in the space age: ~1.4 nPa, compared to ~2.4 nPa typically observed from the mid-1970s through the mid-1990s. The combination of lower magnetic flux emergence from the Sun (carried out in the solar wind as the IMF) and associated low power in the solar wind points to the causal relationship between them. Our results indicate that the low solar wind output is driven by an internal trend in the Sun that is longer than the ~11 yr solar cycle, and they suggest that this current weak solar maximum is driven by the same trend.
http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/779/1/2
and I still think the Voyager 1 got shrunk out of the heliosphere.
Are we ready, set, go…….
This phenomenon can be explained by the occurrence of long-lived magnetic traps extending from the Sun to Jupiter and rotating along with the Sun.
Jovian electrons and the solar wind during the minimum of the 23rd–24th solar activity cycle
E. I. Daibog, K. Kecskemety, Yu. I. Logachev
May 2013
http://link.springer.com/article/10.3103/S1062873813050158
Jovian electrons in Earth orbit can be regarded as probes of the inner heliosphere’s structure. They readily penetrate into the inner heliosphere in periods of the optimum magnetic connection between Earth and Jupiter. Such a penetration is also occasionally observed at arbitrary Earth-Jupiter dispositions. This phenomenon can be explained by the occurrence of long-lived magnetic traps extending from the Sun to Jupiter and rotating along with the Sun.
2 Ready, set, go….
“”… causing the IMF strength to peak near sunspot minimum rather than near sunspot maximum, …””
The Solar Wind and Interplanetary Field during Very Low Amplitude Sunspot Cycles
http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/764/1/90/pdf/apj_764_1_90.pdf
Y.-M. Wang and N. R. Sheeley, Jr.
2013 ApJ
Cosmogenic isotope records indicate that a solar-cycle modulation persists through extended periods of very low sunspot activity. One immediate implication is that the photospheric field during such grand minima did not consist entirely of ephemeral regions, which produce a negligible amount of open magnetic flux, but continued to have a large-scale component originating from active regions. Present-day solar and heliospheric observations show that the solar wind mass flux and proton density at the coronal base scale almost linearly with the footpoint field strength, whereas the wind speed at Earth is uncorrelated with the latter. Thus a factor of ~4-7 reduction in the total open flux, as deduced from reconstructions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during the Maunder Minimum, would lead to a similar decrease in the solar wind densities, while leaving the wind speeds largely unchanged. We also demonstrate that a decrease in the strengths of the largest active regions during grand minima will reduce the amplitude of the Sun’s equatorial dipole relative to the axial component, causing the IMF strength to peak near sunspot minimum rather than near sunspot maximum, a result that is consistent with the phase shift observed in the 10Be record during the Maunder Minimum. Finally, we discuss the origin of the 5 yr periodicity sometimes present in the cosmogenic isotope data during low and medium amplitude cycles
Bob Weber says:
December 30, 2013 at 1:42 pm
Questions for a solar scientist: does the sun’s magnetic flip change TSI any?
Not per se. But as the ‘fip’ happens at maximum, from now on TSI will decrease slightly [by some 0l.1% for another ~six years]
Do TSI measurements integrate all solar outputs including flares, CMEs, filament eruptions, coronal hole emissions and subsequent electron & proton (solar wind) increases and lump them into this sole parameter?
All the things you mention have a total energy that is absolutely minuscule compared to TSI, so whether they are included or not is hardly measurable. In principle, everything is included: one measures TSI by letting raw sunlight fall on an absorbing surface and measuring how much it heats up [actually, the real measurement is how much we have to heat (by a well-calibrated electric current) that surface to keep its temperature constant – but that amounts to the same thing].
Is TSI an averaged number like SSN or 5-year running temperature averages? If so, what period of time over which TSI is averaged/smoothed?
TSI is measured every few minutes and usually a 6-hour or a 1-day average is reported [no smoothing].
Carla says:
December 30, 2013 at 5:18 pm
found some newer articles that may make the hairs on the back of your neck stand up…
WEAKEST SOLAR WIND OF THE SPACE AGE AND THE CURRENT “MINI” SOLAR MAXIMUM
Not at all. The solar wind [as predicted] is just down to what it was 108 years ago. Our data goes back to the 1830s and the Sun has been before where it is now.
lsvalgaard says:
December 30, 2013 at 5:46 pm
——-
Your missed the two articles after the first one..
Good night
Just one more,
…”””The observed UT variation of AKR frequency means that the acceleration altitude changes periodically with planetary rotation. The observations indicate that the diurnal wobble of the tilted geomagnetic field in the solar wind flow alters the magnetosphere-ionosphere (M-I) coupling state in the polar magnetosphere, giving rise to periodic variation of auroral particle acceleration altitude. “””…
Universal time control of AKR: Earth is a spin-modulated variable radio source
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgra.50180/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false
Akira Morioka1, Yoshizumi Miyoshi2, Satoshi Kurita1, Yasumasa Kasaba3,
Vassilis Angelopoulos4, Hiroaki Misawa1, Hirotsugu Kojima5, James P. McFadden6
19 MAR 2013
[1] Auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) is known to be transient emissions generated by rapidly accelerated electrons together with sudden auroral activation in the polar magnetosphere. In contrast, the characteristics and relationship with the auroral acceleration of rather continuous AKR emissions are not well understood. We examine the emission using long-term data and report that the continuous AKR emission frequency changes with universal time (UT) as the Earth rotates, indicating that the Earth is a spin-modulated variable radio source. The observed UT variation of AKR frequency means that the acceleration altitude changes periodically with planetary rotation. The observations indicate that the diurnal wobble of the tilted geomagnetic field in the solar wind flow alters the magnetosphere-ionosphere (M-I) coupling state in the polar magnetosphere, giving rise to periodic variation of auroral particle acceleration altitude. These observations of planetary radio wave properties provide insight into the physics of planetary particle acceleration.
Carla says:
December 30, 2013 at 6:17 pm
Your missed the two articles after the first one..
Neither one is particularly earth-shaking [nor unknown to me].
Carla says:
December 30, 2013 at 6:34 pm
The observed UT variation of AKR frequency …
The UT variation of auroral and geomagnetic activity was discovered long ago and has been investigated intensively, in particular by me: http://www.leif.org/research/Semiannual-Comment.pdf
That’s what my stomach felt like after a copious Christmas dinner with a great red wine and the family, interesting video I just wish I could slow it down, 5 days after the dinner it still makes me a bit “ill”. So a Happy and a great New Year to all of you.. (also spend a few minutes watching Suzuki’s interview on A(ussie)BC. now that really made me smile), (SUN NEWS Canada).
Solar Enthusiasts Unite! This stuff is very interesting!
Carla thank you for those iopscience links – added them to my electric weather and solar favorites folders. Thanks Dr. Svalgaard for those answers. I’m still in learning mode, and I might be there for a while, giving me something to do during our long winter here in N. Michigan.
I was thinking maybe the 6-hour to 1-day TSI average may miss short-term peaks that occur during earth-directed solar flares. Are you aware of anamolous TSI readings during flaring events?
After asking the first set of questions earlier, I found out TSI means “all wavelengths of light that fall on a 1 sq. meter area outside the Earth’s atmosphere”, and from the same source, “This radiant solar energy is known to influence the earth’s weather and climate, although the exact relationships between solar irradiance and long-term climatological changes, such as global warming, are not well understood.” Also, “Total means that the solar flux has been integrated over all wavelengths to include the contributions from ultraviolet, visible, and infrared radiation.”
That raises another question: are seperate measurements made for ultraviolet, visible, and infrared radiation? Also, perhaps TSI at ground level would vary considerably depending on cloud cover. Is that measured anywhere? Also, wouldn’t TSI vary considerably depending on location at either ground level or at the top of the atmosphere (equator vs 45th parallel vs poles)? Is TSI measured at various places globally and then averaged for those periods?
So for me, TSI means photons of light. Did anyone notice two days ago how incredibly bright the sun was? Coincidently most of the continental US experienced quite a warm-up for that day. Some days it seems like sunlight is much more intense than usual. I’m trying to fact check that.
If TSI is strictly defined as “light” (photons), then irregular solar proton and electron (particle) emissions are probably doing things that are not picked up in TSI measurements, and even if “particle power” is not as cumulatively powerful as the light itself, particle electric and magnetic interaction with the magnetosphere may well be that “not well understood” aspect of weather and climate. This is a contention of mine and others that I am trying to parse out. What do you think?
In addition to reading the papers cited above, I see I’m going to have absorb Dr. Svalgaard’s research page list too… oh boy…
Bob Weber says:
December 30, 2013 at 8:38 pm
I was thinking maybe the 6-hour to 1-day TSI average may miss short-term peaks that occur during earth-directed solar flares. Are you aware of anomalous TSI readings during flaring events?
Only the very largest flares add a little bit to TSI. Only one or two flares have ever been seen adding directly to TSI. http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/nuggets/?page=article&article_id=10
That raises another question: are separate measurements made for ultraviolet, visible, and infrared radiation?
Yes, but those are not added up to get TSI. TSI is measured ‘whole’.
Also, perhaps TSI at ground level would vary considerably depending on cloud cover. Is that measured anywhere? Also, wouldn’t TSI vary considerably depending on location at either ground level or at the top of the atmosphere (equator vs 45th parallel vs poles)? Is TSI measured at various places globally and then averaged for those periods?
More less ‘no’ to all.
If TSI is strictly defined as “light” (photons), then irregular solar proton and electron (particle) emissions are probably doing things that are not picked up in TSI measurements
These non-photon emissions are FAR less energetic and carry almost no energy compared to TSI itself. And the definition is not ‘strict’. TSI measures everything that falls upon the instrument, no matter what it is: photons, particles, magnetic fields, etc.
particle electric and magnetic interaction with the magnetosphere may well be that “not well understood” aspect of weather and climate. This is a contention of mine and others that I am trying to parse out. What do you think?
I think there is no strong case for any significant interaction.