This is the second in a series of videos that examines hypothetical human-induced global warming and claims made by global warming enthusiasts. As noted in the title, it presents an introduction to the halt—a.k.a. the hiatus, the pause—in global warming.
I attended a somewhat large Thanksgiving gathering. There were about 18 immediate family, in laws and friends—mostly adults—seated around 2 tables. One of the greener attendees said something about global warming, and my response was that global warming has slowed and there has been no warming of global surface temperatures for more than a decade. My statement was met with disbelief by most. Luckily, two of the teenagers had heard of the hiatus or pause. (We later confirmed the halt on-line.) This generated a number of quick discussions, but the most surprising thing for me was that so few adults had heard that there had been a slowdown and halt in global warming…and that climate scientists were unable to explain it. Has the halt in global warming somehow escaped mainstream media attention in the States? (I don’t know. I haven’t watched TV in more than a decade.)
Thus this video:
The following are links to webpages and papers presented in the video:
- Kevin Trenberth’s article for the Royal Meteorological Society Has Global Warming Stalled? (My response to Trenberth’s article is here.)
- Von Storch, et al. (2013) “Can Climate Models Explain the Recent Stagnation in Global Warming?”
- Fyfe, et al. (2013) “Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years”
And, of course, I included a few model-data comparison graphs, which also show how poorly the models simulate global surface temperatures in recent years. For further discussions of these and other climate model failings, there are numerous posts at my blog Climate Observations. Refer also to my recent ebook Climate Models Fail.
In follow-up videos, we’ll present the excuses being used by global warming enthusiasts in light of the halt in global warming.
The video series “Comments on Human-Induced Global Warming” also includes:
Episode 1 – The Hiroshima Bomb Metric
‘but the most surprising thing for me was that so few adults had heard that there had been a slowdown and halt in global warming.’
Sorry Bob, I’m doing the best I can.
From what I’ve seen the media, TV, newspapers etc, have been ignoring the pause and pushing the fear and terror angle of the coming “destruction of civilization” due to warming, sea level rise etc.
I could use some warming, it’s 28F in my front yard right now. A bit crisp for the SanJose area.
Same here in UK, Intelligent science based friends had never heard that the world had ceased to warm , that Arctic Ice wasn’t in a death spiral , that sea levels weren’t rising at a catastrophic rate.
They had some idea that the world is not as the BBC , Guardian , Independent portray it but no information to gather thoughts around .
Politically nobody is aware that it’s only 3 months ago that the opposition Labour Party voted unanimously to raise power supply bills – instead they get credit for suggesting a price freeze
A few more on Facebook will get the message this time as well. Great Job Bob. You have a nice day TOO!
I am always amazed at the great numbers of people who DO. NOT. KNOW. the first thing about what is going on. I’ve saved a couple of people from Polar Bear fever, among other things…
I think most people are unaware of the hiatus. Certainly, the UK department of energy and climate change seem to be in denial about it. The BBC know about it but make a point of never mentioning it. Only one newspaper has covered it, David Rose in the Mail on Sunday. Christopher Booker has covered it in his weekly column, but that is regarded as comment rather than news.
It does need more publicity so that the MSM and public start asking awkward questions.
Good video. It isn’t as easy to get public attention with “the world as we know it isn’t ending” than “repent now, the end is nigh” the doomslingers use.
Kit Blanke says:
December 5, 2013 at 3:35 am
“From what I’ve seen the media, TV…………………………….”
Kit, I just took the garbage out for pick-up and it is -28C [yes minus].
That is a bit crisp for Edmonton, Alberta too..
AB Slim – minus 26C here in Calgary. And windy. Brrrr…..
A pause? Only sixteen or seventeen years? Unless the warming is stopped for thirty years, it is just weather…
Yes, of course I am joking. Warming or cooling, the facts literally do not matter for the CAGW devotees. The ones with whom I have spoken refuse to even look at the facts. When I offer to send them charts or figures they tell me they do not want to see them. Why let the facts get in the way of a perfectly thrilling end-of-the-world fantasy, especially one that strokes their feelings of ethical self righteousness?
“there has been no warming of global surface temperatures for more than a decade”
“I haven’t watched TV in more than a decade”
For the sake of future generations Tisdale must be kept away from televisions…
Bob, it isn’t a ‘pause’, and neither is it an ‘hiatus’. Both terms imply that you KNOW the future state. We don’t KNOW the future state of climate, we can’t even be reasonably sure, so the term ‘pause’ is simply inadequate and incorrect based on the very point that temperatures have flatlined for some 15 years. I am so very sorry to labour this point, but I’m even more sorry that the word keeps being used on this website. It doesn’t matter that the English language is somewhat flexible (as some incorrectly argue), the word ‘pause’ is STILL taken to mean a temporary cessation – in both dictionary and common use (unlike – sadly – the word ‘literally’ or even ‘rape’). I promise this is my last time trying to correct otherwise learned people – it is NOT a ‘pause’. As steveta_uk (by mistake) points out on another thread here, the pause button on a DVD implies that you wish to continue to play it (otherwise you’d press ‘stop’). It is a temporary position of state. If warming continues then the ‘pause’ CAN be referred to in the past tense. For example, “Back in the 2000s, the warming paused, before it continued.” However, we just might say, “Back in the 2000s, the warming stopped.”! We don’t yet know, so we cannot say ‘pause’. The static line in the anomaly is too long for it to be a pause. If you shoot a rocket up with only a few seconds of fuel to burn, there is a very short period of time when the fuel runs out, that it pauses, before falling back. So the word would be ok to use for a very short time after 1998, but 15 years is too long. The temp could well fall, so ‘pause’ would be shown to be incorrect. Everyone clear?
Quite right TGOBJC. I always tell people its stopped, not paused (though I like flatlined – I might borrow that) Sure it might start again, it also might not.
“The Hiroshima Bomb Metric” ?
That’s just plain silly. More likely it was UNF.
SCNR
Quote from Michael Fumento today in the NY Post regarding “the pause”:
Mind you, the term “pause” is misleading in the extreme: Unless and until it resumes again, it’s just a “stop.” You don’t say a bullet-ridden body “paused” breathing.
Almost lost my coffee.
The Global warming hoax, was started as a way to frighten the public enough, to go along with their “Greed energy scam”. When mother nature didn’t co-operate, they re-worded their claim, to “climate change”, which means that we can now be blamed for any natural weather occurrence! What a bunch of crap!
“Arctic death-spiral” Trenberth uses the Warmist tactic of cherry-picking the start date of the Halt. But, the start date is now, and working back. Anything to protect the CAGW cause though.
Now your rocket example cleared all that up….oh wait….if the rocket only “Paused”, well then it would again continue on upward, after the pause was over. So how could it really “Pause” if it never once again continued upward, you know, like that DVD example you gave. I’d dare say it plain “stopped” and then accelerated again in another direction only to “permanently” pause when it crashed to earth. Meanwhile, all along it was always accelerating downward without any “pause” in acceleration, Gravitarily speaking, it was just rocket fuel accelerating upward faster then the “non paused” downward gravity acceleration.
Really even hate talking about this kind of stuff. Reminds me of my catholic youth and purgatory. Now that’s a pause…a real pause, more like a permanent pause, where you can never go forward to the pearly gates….”permanently Paused”, which I know Mr Cooley is not quite stopped. At least, in my mind, if I were in purgatory, i would always hope to end that pause, but they never really explained to us if that pause ever became a “stop”. Personally, i would rather have them get it over with and tell me one way or another so I could get on with my life…..Oh wait…I’m in purgatory, I’m dead, so I can’t get on with my life….I guess I’ll just have to accept this permanent pause.
Thanks Mr Cooley, I have to run out and tell all my friends you gotz this whole thing figgered out. Sometimes there is some really fantastic thoughts passing along these pages….Then again, sometimes not.
The reaction does not surprise me at all. The MMS never gives any credence to the pause or just ignores it completely. We are inundated with day after day reports of how the last year was the x highest on record and all of the catastrophic outcomes expected. There is never any well reasoned explanations about the data. Why should there be. Hysteria sells newspapers and magazines and helps with ratings on TV. We have had articles with screaming headlines about Global Warming causing the extinction of the wolf on Isle Royale in Lake Superior because of lack of an ice bridge from the mainland. Only deep into the article did it explain that wolves came over from Ontario during an extremely cold winter in 1949 and there has been inbreeding since then leading to genetic problems. No mention in the headline that they were not native to the Island. Another example was a blaring headline with AGW causing lower levels in the Great Lakes due to increased evaporation. Yet deep in the article it explained that while Lakes Michigan and Huron were down, in fact Lakes Erie and Ontario were slightly up from historical norms and Lake Superior was only slightly down. Deep in the article it explained that extensive and long term dredging in the waterways connecting Huron to Erie may have accelerated the drainage of Lakes Michigan and Huron. But that doesnt sell newpapers.
I don’t believe that you haven’t watched TV in a decade. If you haven’t, you must be “out of touch”. lol
Regarding the brouhaha over the Warmists’ use of the word “pause” instead of halt, I’m reminded of how, in the novel “1984” language is twisted for propaganda purposes. Language most certainly does matter, and they know it.
I really like your video though. You should put it on TV.
@ Birdieshooter “Deep in the article it explained that extensive and long term dredging in the waterways connecting Huron to Erie may have accelerated the drainage of Lakes Michigan and Huron.”
Holy cow!!! CAGW causes dredging!! Time to panic!!
AKA the plateau.
Here’s a link to the rather pointed opinion piece by Michael Fumento in the Washington Post today.
Global-warming ‘proof’ is evaporating
http://nypost.com/2013/12/05/global-warming-proof-is-evaporating/
A big problem is that most people know virtually nothing about climate science.
On the execrable BBC Horizon Science Under Attack program, the NASA climate scientist told a shocking lie: that mankind emits seven times more CO2 than nature (I’m sure most readers here know the real figure). The sad, sad thing is that the vast majority of viewers probably assumed it was true because they didn’t know any better.
Most people probably don’t even know the amount of global warming that has occurred. The people I asked mostly thought it was a few degrees. I doubt if the Guardian or the BBC have ever stated the actual figure, as two thirds of a degree C just isn’t scary enough.
Chris
I use two terms depending on the point I want to make. I’ve been using “flat-lined” to describe the 17 years flat trend and often state it has signaled the death of AGW. I then refer to the RSS data.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.8/to/plot/rss/from:1996.8/trend
However, when I want to be more accurate I state the warming concluded at the end of the warm PDO and it is now cooling with the cool PDO. I then refer to this RSS chart. It also has the advantage of showing why we have had many of the so-called warmest years recently. There is a peak which we have now transited.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.9/to/plot/rss/from:1996.9/to:2005/trend/plot/rss/from:2005/trend
When articles like this begin to appear in the New York Times and others, (don’t hold your breath) maybe the average Joe might begin to wake up.:
http://nypost.com/2013/12/05/global-warming-proof-is-evaporating/
Record cold in Denver this morning. -15F at the airport. Coldest reading I’ve ever gotten taking my daughter to school.
J. Philip Peterson says: “I don’t believe that you haven’t watched TV in a decade.”
My (not flat screen) television resides on the floor of a closet. I have no idea what I’ve saved it for.
From the inconvenient data department.
Forget about ‘The Pause’. What about ‘The Drop’? From UK’s favourite graph for long term temperature series. It has been dropping like a stone since 2006. Not long enough for a ‘real’ trend but….
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
Now if that stops dropping (as it will eventually) then maybe ‘The Pause’ will stop around the same time also. 🙂
OK, TOUCHÉ Bob, maybe if I had done the same with my TV, I could have gotten more work done and I would be a famous artist by now – lol.
Steve. Oh dear. Oh dear, oh dear!
Am I missing something, why do Mac the Knife and J. Philip Peterson say Michael Fumento’s article is in the NY Times or Washington Post, while linking to the New York Post?
Was it also in those papers?
Not that it is my intention to defend the MSM (far from it!), this is actually to be expected once you account for the sensationalist bias that is present in all so-called “reporting” today – typified by the old adage, “if it bleeds, it leads!”
Stories which report Disaster, Fire, Famine, Death, and Destruction always make headlines, regardless of whether they are true or not, because that’s what gets people to perk up and watch (or read). While on the other hand, the story which says “hey, you know all that stuff which we scared you about last month? Well, we were just mostly making that up, it isn’t going to happen after all” never gets broadcast or makes it to print. (or if it does, it is a one paragraph correction on page D-19)
When the frenzy is on and everyone seems to be excited, then the news outlets will be pushing the frenzy as hard as they can, because that’s what they do. When it peters out, they never report that – they just stop talking about it and move on to the next sexy horror show that they can peddle.
And if you believe there is anything other than that at work in what is quaintly called “journalism” today, well, your naivette is touching.
And this isn’t a bad thing – it means word of mouth, one on one work in this area can be effective, and you will not just be educating people about warming, but also about how pathetically useless most of what passes for “news” today has become.
climatebeagle says:
December 5, 2013 at 8:11 am
“Am I missing something, why do Mac the Knife and J. Philip Peterson say Michael Fumento’s article is in the NY Times or Washington Post, while linking to the New York Post?
Was it also in those papers?”
NO, that was my point. Articles like this never appear in the NY Times, or in the MSM or on 60 Minutes etc. I think you misunderstood my point.
WWS, I told my 21 YO son. If ever anyone in mass media tries to motivate you with fear, dis-regard them. They are attempting to manipulate you.
Nice job, Bob. Very measured delivery of the information, and a logical conclusion. For what it’s worth, I don’t like “stagnation” as a term to describe temp trends. I think the word ‘plateau’ should be used to describe current trends, as it’s the most neutral term, implying neither warming or cooling in the future.
BTW: right now it’s -17 f here in the Colorado River valley in Western Colorado. This is a new record low by over 10 degrees.
A well known quote:
“Whoever Controls the Language Controls the Debate”
Yes, using the term “Pause” allows the Global Warming enthusiasts to control the language and the debate. I prefer “Flat line” I don’t know what world temperatures will do tomorrow but since 1998 they’ve flat lined.
Speaking of 1998, wasn’t that a spike in world temperature and didn’t all those computer models NOT predict that spike? In other words, the models were wrong then, and they are wrong today.
Thanks to the media, most people don’t know global warming has stopped after the 1998 El Niño.
It all comes down to self-loathing for many warmers….”If man is involved he is probably screwing up”. When there is a dogma involved, in climate religion as well as any other religion, any fact that contradicts that dogma is necessarily wrong. And of course anyone who brings that fact up is evil.
In my family, we don’t discuss global warm/changing. Me and my wife are the black sheep in that regard. Sometimes there are references to it; about how “weather has changed”, or some such nonsense. We ignore it. They are dyed-in-the-wool Believers, and nothing we, or anyone says can change that. It’s sad, really.
It puzzles me when people on this site say the people they communicate with have no idea of the World’s current stationary temperature. Everyone I talk to seems to realise the climate is a World variable. But then I suppose that is because we are all old (70+) and have seen it all before.
I am surprised that your friends/family will engage with you regarding climate (as I suspect they know what your view on it is). My colleagues and family generally know (or soon come to know) my position and they tend to not engage with me if they hold a differing opinion. If the subject comes up I tend to talk facts, they tend to talk feelings. Thanks for the nice video, I will put this out for friends/family to see.
Could the rising deep ocean temperatures be a sign that we are heading into another iceage?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029461.600-is-it-time-to-stop-worrying-about-global-warming.html
Bloke down the pub says:
December 5, 2013 at 3:29 am
“Sorry Bob, I’m doing the best I can.”
Obviously, you haven’t been visiting enough pubs!
Seeing as how “global warming” only ran for 11 years or so, and the flat-line has clocked up almost 20 years, we should not let the alarmists insist on the word “pause”. I refuse to use the term “climate change” because it gives them room to move and to continue their meme. The use of the word “pause” just gives them more wriggle room again – something they are desperate for. Why should we let them have that? They are manipulating us all, robbing us blind and destroying our civilization. Why help them keep the drama alive?
Ran into this a few weeks ago while ballroom dancing of all things. A fellow I knew had apparently managed to incense a green activist by telling her that there had been no 21st century warming. I was walking by and he said to me, “Alec, you tell her.” After finding out what I was supposed to tell her I confirmed it to her, and her response was to say that she did not regard us as experts and she wasn’t going to listen to us.
Hey, don’t believe US. Go check the record. Can you Google “temperature history”? But no, she was determined not to heed ANYTHING we said, because we were obviously the enemy. If the enemy said, “go that way,” of course you don’t go that way. It’s pure contrariness. If you say “go check the facts,” that’s exactly what they WON’T do.
The modus operandi of the left (and numerous studies confirm that warming alarmism is a creature of the left) is a determined avoidance of all contrary information. They literally don’t let themselves hear it, flaring up in anger so as to otherwise occupy the mind and repel the unwanted information. That makes them the lowest of low information voters. They actively avoid information.
Re: donald penman @ 11:24 am
“Could the rising deep ocean temperatures be a sign that we are heading into another iceage?”
Besides your link not working, what rising deep ocean currents? The ARGO data that Dr. Josh Willis edited, corrected & adjusted? That deep ocean warming? Just wondering.
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
December 5, 2013 at 5:15 am
“it isn’t a ‘pause’, and neither is it an ‘hiatus’… however, we just might say, “Back in the 2000s, the warming stopped.”!”
Given that the 65-year ENSO is now in its negative phase and given the quiet state of the sun, I’ve been telling people that ‘the temperature cycle peaked’ around year 2000 and will be heading down again. The Ghost is right though; we don’t ‘know’ what it will do, and ‘the warming stopped’ is accurate regardless what happens next. I’ll switch to that; maybe then a few people won’t dismiss me out of hand as a nutcase.
Bob: “I haven’t watched TV in more than a decade.”
Welcome to the club!
Thanks, Bob, for an easy to follow, easy to verify, video. (And how do most people phonetically say HadCRUT?) Seems these days the MSM has shifted to “carbon” or “renewables” or “ocean acidification”. They must know that CAGW can have each word in the acronym taken apart.
“Speaking of 1998, wasn’t that a spike in world temperature and didn’t all those computer models NOT predict that spike? In other words, the models were wrong then, and they are wrong today.”
Half true 2005 (non El Nino year ) was on the NASA data set warmer than ’98..
“Previously, the warmest year of the century was 1998, when a strong El Nino, a warm water event in the eastern Pacific Ocean, added warmth to global temperatures. However, what’s significant, regardless of whether 2005 is first or second warmest, is that global warmth has returned to about the level of 1998 without the help of an El Nino.”
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html
And no, computer models didn’t “NOT predict that spike” as it is not possible them to do that. GCM’s are generalised global models that use ensemble techniques to smooth out short term internal chaotic climate cycles and attempt to quantify error bars and sensitivity to initial conditions. They never were intended to, and indeed inherently cannot predict a single years average global temp.
climatebeagle says:
December 5, 2013 at 8:11 am
Am I missing something, why do Mac the Knife and J. Philip Peterson say Michael Fumento’s article is in the NY Times or Washington Post, while linking to the New York Post? Was it also in those papers?
climatebeagle,
Simple typo on my part – should have said the New York Post. Nuthin’ nefarious intended. But the commentary was interesting and aligned with Bob Tisdale’s post so I provided a link to it.
MtK
To the several folks above who say “stopped” instead of “paused”, I disagree. We can call it a pause if we have a reasonable confidence that it will eventually continue. I can, for example, say that “he paused in his hike” if I know that it’s only 10 in the morning and my hiker is in good shape and thus unlikely to be stopping for the night. Saying that he “stopped” on the other hand, implies not only that he is currently stopped but that I have some expectation that he will stay stopped. Since we have a very stable long-term trend of temperature increases since our emergence from the Little Ice Age, there is a physical basis for the expectation that sooner or later, we will return to that trend. Within that context, “pause” is reasonable.
More importantly, “pause” draws attention to the failure of the models to match the observed temperatures. It does not matter whether the pause is short or long-term, the models utterly failed to predict it. “Stopped” implies a certainty of permanence which allows the opponent to distract with irrelevant strawman arguments.
We are still about 5 weeks away from the historically coldest time of the year here in Colorado (Denver Metro area). January 1962 was a particularly cold month with record low of -24 deg F set on January 10 1962. This record was set at Stapleton airport weather service location, so the -15 set last night out at DIA on the plains is not really a fair comparison to the old record. It is well known that once you got out onto the plains north and east of metro Denver night time temps are often much colder in the winter and much hotter in the summer during the day.
On Jan 10,’62 it reached -30 Deg F just a few miles north east of Denver in Arvada. I remember it very well because I walked a mile to school in that weather and when I got home I had to wait in the cold on the patio for nearly an hour until my parents got home from the store to get in the house. There was no school shutdown due to weather it was just normal weather for a cold winter at the time. I also delivered the morning paper in that weather and in -30 deg F temps your eyes will freeze shut if you are a bit slow blinking them if they tear up due to the windchill.
That middle few weeks of January is typically the coldest of the winter and locally got nicknamed “stock show weather” because these cold snaps often just preceded or occurred during the National Western Stock Show here in Denver.
I would not be surprised to see sub -20 temps this year in a few weeks if this arctic express is any indicator of how this winter will develop.
TB says: “Half true 2005 (non El Nino year ) was on the NASA data set warmer than ’98.”
There was an El Nino in 2004/05. Global surface temperatures usually respond to an El Nino with a 3 to 6 months lag.
As someone whose “home channel” is Fox News Channel, I can report that they have reported on “the pause” numerous times in the past year.
@lynn Clark
People that vote for Obama and CAGW proponents don’t watch the Fox News Channel I’m afraid. They were told not to by Obama himself. I’m afraid also that the Fox News Channel isn’t the MSM even though they have the highest ratings for cable news.
“Luckily, two of the teenagers had heard of the hiatus or pause.”
It is refreshing knowing that teenagers are paying attention and digging for facts instead of listening to agenda driven people (the end justifies the means). There is still hope.
The same conversation took place at our Thanksgiving table of 16 people. I sat next to my green brother-in-law who brought the subject up and I briefly gave a few facts about the pause, all of which were overheard by the younger generation at the table who backed up my position from their internet sources of information. So Anthony, your excellent website is holding forth!
RE: TB says: @ 1:38 pm
“And no, computer models didn’t “NOT predict that spike” as it is not possible them to do that. GCM’s are generalised global models that use ensemble techniques to smooth out short term internal chaotic climate cycles and attempt to quantify error bars and sensitivity to initial conditions. They never were intended to, and indeed inherently cannot predict a single years average global temp.”
Maybe you should take a look at one of those spaghetti diagrams sometime:
http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/ar4-wg1/jpg/fig-10-5.jpg
Those little black dots sure look like single years to me.
I am sorry that the link did not work probably nothing I can do about that but the oceans have certainly warmed since the last glaciation and the thermal expansion of the oceans will likely continue untill we enter the next glaciation,in the link I gave the warming of the oceans was linked to Global warming.
Alberta Slim says:
December 5, 2013 at 4:26 am
CodeTech says:
December 5, 2013 at 4:39 am
Here in Red Deer it’s -25c & -38c with the wind chill
Finally, some honesty about the hiatus. The video referred to a 15 year old slowdown, and towards its end presented graphs showing upward linear trend through the 1997-1998 El Nino spike, and flat to very slightly negative trend starting at the beginning of 1991.
Note the upward step from the pre-2001 linear trend to the 2001-onward linear trend. I think the hiatus started when temperature got close to the 2001-onward linear trend, in mid or late 2001. A projected intersection of the pre-2001 and 2001-onward linear trends occurs even later.
Note, this is HadCRUT4, which I think shows slightly morepost-1996 warming than the truth. Even considering that, I think the hiatus started in 2001, and what started with the 1997-1998 spike was a slowdown.
mikerossander says:
December 5, 2013 at 3:06 pm
We can call it a pause if we have a reasonable confidence that it will eventually continue.
“Stopped” implies a certainty of permanence which allows the opponent to distract with irrelevant strawman arguments.
That’s absurd. Your “reasonable confidence” that warming will eventually continue is an assumption based on nothing but goalpost-moving. Indeed, there is a very good chance of cooling in the coming decades. In your wildest imaginings, do you think that, during a period of cooling it would be called a “pause”? The truth is that it is a word that can and should only be used in retrospect. The words “stop” or “halt” imply nothing about the future. They describe a state of being only, nothing more.
Donald L. Klipstein says:
No, it is not a “hiatus” either, which is very similar to the word “pause”, in that it implies future continuation.
Steve Case says:
“Maybe you should take a look at one of those spaghetti diagrams sometime:
http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/ar4-wg1/jpg/fig-10-5.jpg
Those little black dots sure look like single years to me.”
And maybe you should read properly what I said…
“And no, computer models didn’t “NOT predict that spike” as it is not possible them to do that. GCM’s are generalised global models that use ENSEMBLE TECHNIQUES TO SMOOTH OUT short term internal chaotic climate cycles”
Is that clear the 2nd time of reading?
A single piece of “spaghetti” is meaningless except for it’s place within the whole ensemble.
They cannot predict detail – they do but they mean nothing as the range seen amongst the members shows.
And BTW: I do “take a look at spaghetti diagrams” – I worked for the UKMO for 32 years.
Long-term, we are actually still in the glacial age known as the pleistocene. Within that time-frame, though, we are blessed to be living during an interglacial or pause (note correct use of the term) known as the holocene. The last interglacial, the eemian lasted about 20k years. Hopefully, ours will last at least that long, but there are no guarantees.
Bottom line: we do live during a pause or hiatus, but of cooling, not warming.