One topic to consider: It seems that there are plenty of holes in the Miller et al paper to go around. Steve McIntyre adds more moss here.
Feel free to discuss other topics within policy.
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I would like to say thank you to all skeptics for their efforts in battling the CAGW multi-headed hydra. Those on this side know how little financial gain there is in fighting for quality, unbiased science. It is a windmill that necessarily has to be tilted.
A Short Essay On Models
Much has been written and commented on concerning the IPCC climate models both here, and numerous other sites. I’m not a scientist, mathematician, or researcher. I’m an engineer in the private sector, and as such I work with models each and every day. In the vernacular, I’m simply a manufacturing ‘line dog’ engineer.
When I begin a project to create a new part, there are 3 caveats that must be strictly adhered to:
1.) It has to be right.
2.) It has to be on time.
3.) It has to be within budget.
First I create the model of the finished part in a 3-D CAD system. From this I’ll generate the blueprints containing the section views, dimensions, etc. Next I’ll create the model of the raw stock, whether it be a forging, casting, billet, or weldment, and insert the finished part inside the raw piece. Then the process of removing material begins, with many of the interim steps requiring special fixtures to hold them. These as well begin life as models, and have to successfully accomplish their intended purpose, every time. When the process is completely finished, and the 3 caveats have been met, I get to keep my job for one more project. This is simply how it works in the real world.
With IPCC:
1.) The model must conform to the official narrative. Empirical data is not a part of the equation.
2.) On time? Puh-leese! With 6 years between projects I could take 5 3/4 years off in between jobs.
3.) Budget? With the budget they have, I could build a new factory for each individual process, fully staffed and standing by to machine a single part.
In short, in the real world the models have to be correct, because I absolutely guarantee when you’re at 34,000 feet looking out the window at a jet engine, the only rule you care about is Real World 1.) It has to be right.
Luke Warmist
I’m not making a prediction, but a horse named “Sir McIntyre” is about to run at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto.
Current odds 45-1, it won its last 2 races.
There are 2 minutes to post, right now.
It ran like a 45-1 shot 🙁
The other horses had better models…….. 🙂
its still an uphill battle…
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/pt.5.8012;jsessionid=1asjx5r2if51v.x-aip-live-06
uh-oh, Japan is dumbing down too…
To Expand Offshore Power, Japan Builds Floating Windmills
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/25/business/international/to-expand-offshore-power-japan-builds-floating-windmills.html?_r=1&
…and they encountered waves, which they didn’t anticipate. When you go green is there a corresponding 40 point drop in IQ?
Sadly, Lou Reed has died.
This article on Lake Erie starts off well enough, but you just have a feeling they would work in that money-magical climate change angle:
http://www.lfpress.com/2013/10/26/scientists-descending-on-southwestern-ontario-to-get-better-grip-on-most-vulnerable-of-great-lakes
“Scientists are taking Lake Erie’s pulse this week, and brainstorming how to tackle some of its biggest threats.
More than 80 researchers will descend on the University of Windsor for a think-tank, the Lake Erie Millenium Network, hoping the best and brightest can figure out how to make and keep the lake healthy.”
No need to dumb down. In strategic issues Japan was always pretty clueless. In 1941, for example, they figured destroying the US Pacific Fleet would buy them naval superiority. Instead, they bought into utter destruction of their own homeland.
Well, they simply failed to have a look at US industrial capacity, not a difficult task at all.
Anyway, we have learnt a lot from the Japanese since then, so we are getting as crazy as they are in despising common sense.
Luke Warmist says:
October 27, 2013 at 11:31 am
>>>>>>>>>
WELL said, Luke.
CO2 is Wunderbar
Having followed and read many articles about the benefit of CO2 for plant life, many of them from http://www.co2science.org/ I have wanted to experiment with CO2 enrichment here at the golf course I work at. The big problem is having a way to provide the gas to the plant in an economical and practical way. As I looked around the internet I may have found one. The company http://greenfield-fertilizer.com/ has recently arrived in Canada and is based in Europe, Germany I think, and has been marketing their material for a few years.
The material is very finely ground up minerals, carbonates of Mg and Ca. When sprayed on the plant the fine materials enter the stomata break down and give off CO2. With this enrichment the stomata can close a little which reduces water loss and so you get better growth with a more drought tolerant plant. Well at least that’s the idea which seems to make sense and the company offers a number of studies with very good results.
Just received a pail of the material and am amazed at how fine it is, 25 pound pail is $150 which is quite cheap considering some of the other adjuvants we routinely spray on our greens. Pail will last for six weeks and we will test next year spraying bi-weekely with other nutrients. Even if there is a 10-15% improvement in turf growth/hardiness it is a big improvement on greens that are cut at .100 inch every day. Would be great for gardeners to try and it is completely non toxic, just mind the fine powder.
Hey Willis:
Here is a story about an outfit in Bezerkley who manufactures power supplies with no net CO2 output. Combines computers with a gasification process which uses biomass (corn husks/stalks, wood chips, etc.) for generating fuel to run motor/generator. They have sold over 500 units, mostly to third world countries. Right up your alley.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57608281-76/carbon-negative-energy-a-reality-at-last-and-cheap-too/
Paul Richards
HT/ Instapundit
Is the solar magnetic input negligible ?
I’ve been monitoring daily solar magnetic input due to solar eruptions – CMEs and the Earth’s response via its own field. The Earth’s response averages about 1% of its field’s intensity:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Tromso.htm
This may be considered as a negligible; but lets look at it in another way. The Earth’s field is generated by thermal convection within liquid outer core , the energy involved must be huge considering the core’s volume, pressure, viscosity and temperatures.
I would suggest that 1% of something very very large is not exactly negligible.
Lord Oxburgh will be making a speech on climate change tomorrow in the Lords. Might be worth a follow-up.
@David Ball –
And fighting for quality science is also fighting for liberty when the faux science is being used as a pretext to suppress liberty.
The bottom line of the moss study is probably that in some places recent soot / warming / weather melted more ice than has been accumulated during the little ice age. But that is no indication for temperature.
Yet another of those time lapse videos, clouds and stars this time:
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/83620535/
Otteryd says:
October 27, 2013 at 1:13 pm
I’d be surprised if His Lordship says anything new, given that he chaired the UEA whitewash despite obvious conflict of interest, given his CACA-dependent business interests.
Anyone notice how the Arctic from bearings 20-70E are seeing more ice compared to the last few years? Or is it just me? http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php
Paul767 says:
October 27, 2013 at 12:52 pm
Hey Willis:
Here is a story about an outfit in Bezerkley who manufactures power supplies with no net CO2 output. Combines computers with a gasification process which uses biomass (corn husks/stalks, wood chips, etc.) for generating fuel to run motor/generator. They have sold over 500 units, mostly to third world countries. Right up your alley.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57608281-76/carbon-negative-energy-a-reality-at-last-and-cheap-too/
Paul Richards
HT/ Instapundit
_________________________________
I like the idea of the machine and think that many urban centers in the developed world could also make good use of wood/biomass gasification for electric power production. Most US cities are also forests, with trees and shrubbery requiring regular trimming and removal, the product then ending up in the landfill (along with grass clippings.) I’d like to see the math behind the 10 cent/KWH figure published by the manufacturer. That and the “no net CO2” claim trigger my BS detector.
For many third world countries, biomass is in short supply and this machine would make things worse for the people. Perhaps the company understands the detrimental effect their machine could possibly have in certain economies.
RE: Japan floating windmills
Facts from the article:
Energy Return on Investment looks to be the Achiles Heel of this crony capitalist project.
if 140 wind turbines = 1 GW, then 1 wind turbine delivers 7 MW. That is probably the name plate rating. 7 MW (at 40% utilization) has the energy equivalent of 39 barrels of oil per day: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/01/giant-7-megawatt-sea-fan-announced/#comment-634470
A proposal to build a semi-submersible offshore platform to produce an oil field for 39 bpd, or 390, or even 3,900 bpd would be laughed out of the room.
I suggest the following topic for discussion.
What is the future of GCMs like the ones assessed by the IPCC in its AR5 (and in all previous ARs) after COP21 in Paris in December 2015?
John
Well, it’s an open thread… Here’s a shout out to Gail Combs, who hasn’t posted recently.
My wife and I were in North Carolina about 12-1:00 pm. on Saturday, October 5th heading south on I-77 near the Yadkinville exit and I was hightailing it (sub-sonic – barely – of course) for Hilton Head Island for some fishing and R&R. Well, I zoomed past a lady driving a truck towing a horse trailer-load of cute animals. The trailer advertised that the animals were available for parties, education, etc. How nice…
…a-a-a-a-a-n-d about 3-4 minutes later, it struck me that I might just happened to have blown by Gail on her way to/from one of her party events where she provides the petting zoo. So, my curiosity is up and
a) I hope all is well with Gail, having not seen a post from her for a bit.
2) If indeed I blew past Gail; should the same alignment of the stars and the moon and the BBC evening program line-up ever happen again, I’ll slow down, give a polite beep, and wave.
And to Luke Warmist: I’m another ‘Line Dog’ manufacturing engineer in a small company but we’re too cheap for CAD. Sometimes I use my personal $30 copy of TurboCAD, 3 versions back, but most of the time I do the prototyping, tooling, programming, etc. on the fly in my head or on a scratch pad. (I also walk to work in knee-deep snow, uphill both ways.) You are absolutely correct; whatever it is you’re making for sale in the private sector, it must be right.
I’d love to take a ride on the CAGW gravy train, but I could never get past having to sell my soul for a ticket. I just can’t understand that mentality.