A few days ago, the Georgia Tech press release for Wyatt and Curry (2013) included a quote from Marcia Wyatt, who said the stoppage in global warming “could extend into the 2030s”. (See the WattsUpWithThat post here and Judith Curry’s post here. The paper is here. Also see the SpringerLink-ClimateDynamics webpage.)
Now, there’s another paper predicting the cessation of global warming will last for more than another decade, with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere through 2027 (prompted by the North Atlantic Oscillation).
See TheHockeySchtick post New paper finds natural North Atlantic Oscillation controls Northern Hemisphere temperatures 15-20 years in advance. The paper is Li et al (2013) NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability. (Full paper is here.) The Li et al. (2013) abstract reads (my boldface):
The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming–cooling–warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15–20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. A NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT [Northern Hemisphere Temperature], which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971–2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a sea level pressure-based index. Sea level pressures are related to wind patterns. And wind patterns impact how, where and when warm waters from the tropical Atlantic migrate north…which, in turn, impacts the sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic as a whole. Li et al (2013) are basically saying that multidecadal changes in the sea level pressure and wind patterns in the North Atlantic are a useful predictor of multidecadal periods of warming and cooling in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
It’s time for the IPCC to start thinking about cutting back on their predictions of future global warming by at least 50%. The public is catching on to the fact that if natural variability can stop global warming for 2 to 3 decades, then it also contributed to the warming from 1975 to the turn of the century—something the IPCC failed to account for in its projections.
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That’s cool with me Marcie babe, lets talk again in 2024 OK? Have a good one…..
We have so many wonderful Canadians on WUWT, I hope you have a lovely Thanksgiving this coming Monday. This post is for you.
Maybe it’s because my great-grandmother came from New Brunswick.
Maybe it’s because so many of your fine accomplishments,
so many of your heroes,
go largely unsung.
All I know is that my heart goes out to you
as you gather
to give thanks.
I thank God, too, for you, Canada, our steady,
hard working, great hearted, neighbour to the north.
JOY, from then, and best wishes for much more
in all the years to come.
“God, save (your) land… .” (national anthem at 6:40)
HAPPY THANKSGIVING, WUWT CANADIANS!
Your American friend,
Janice
Sheesh. I’m slipping. I forgot to call attention to the final few words of the Li et al. (2013) abstract, “that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming,” and the fact that ocean heat content data and satellite-era sea surface temperature data both indicate the oceans warmed via natural processes, not from manmade greenhouse gases. See my illustrated essay, “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge” (42MB):
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/the-manmade-global-warming-challenge.pdf
I second that emotion for Canucks. Happy Holiday!
Correction: “God keep (your) land… .”
and….
BUY BOB’S BOOK!
#(:))
The best during your holiday, Canucks. We couldn have better neighbors.
Okay, but I’m afraid these guys are just trying to buy more time. Since the AMO has been positive there has been no trend in temperature so if we are to suppose the AMO has a large effect on NH temperatures then what’s left for CO2? I mean positive AMO + CO2 forcing = nearly zero?
Dr. Tisdale, can you answer a few questions if you have the time? If ENSO, or AMO or PDO don’t increase the earths energy budget they merely show transfers of heating energy then can’t we calibrate our global temperature data sets off their variations? If we were measuring all the heat correctly then wouldn’t an EL Niño be shown as an increase in temperature in one place and a decrease in another place with no trend change in a year. The heat didn’t just appear did it? It just circulated enough that we can measure it. Doesn’t that mean that we are essentially +-.4 or so degrees on our global temperature measurement when heat just appears from somewhere where we couldn’t see it to some place where we can see it?
this is a timely submission from my point of view.i have great interest in the NAO index,as it is the main driver of fish species biomass in uk waters due to the nutrient rich waters driving plankton species numbers up when the NAO is in its negative phase. the period of several years in the negative phase was believed to have led to what is termed the gadiod outburst, resulting in twenty years of well above average numbers of many fish species in uk waters.
much as global warming fans focus on co2, so marine biologists focus on commercial fishing as the main driver of fish numbers in the north atlantic.like co2 ,whilst having an effect,it appears to me, not to be anywhere near the effect of suitable plankton species availability for larvae and fry of all the main species of fish.
recently there has been an upturn in many species thought to be continually declining due to commercial over fishing,particularly in the north sea. according to many this should not be possible due to fishing capability increasing ,although the actual number of fishermen and boats have decreased in their thousands.
plankton availability can alter the amount of first year recruits by the order of billions per species,so the NAO trending negative has a greater impact than species quotas being altered by 10,000 tonnes here or there.
taking a cursory look at uk inshore water temperatures in the north sea, the trend in the last 6 or 7 years is down,this is to be expected with an increased flow of cooler water during the negative phase of the NAO.as an angler, i must be one of the few people that actually want it to get colder 🙂
“NAO weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.” The required tip of the hat and a bend of the knee to consensus science.
As to the “peer-reviewed” article which tells us what we can already estimate, that is, “NOTHING”.
Shouldn’t WUWT consider a “doctorate” program?
Seriously, a WUWT University.
The blogoshpere is a new paradigm. Many postings here are REAL science. And, the REAL peer-review is awesome. So why not our own system of “select” individuals, properly “anointed”. There could be a system, open and accessible. People could be given degrees based on their research/papers.
The “ivy leagues” have failed us. Their corruption and perversion is well documented. A “higher” degree from WUWT could easily be worth much more than from some slanted, corrupt, other institution.
Why not?
I was watching the Weather Channel while eating lunch today and for their tropical update they talked about what happened to the season (so far). One thing they put up was a slide claiming the AMO is lower or negative than it’s been. Well, they said colder than it’s been, and had the standard red(+) and blue(-) plot. Then pointed out how many fewer tropical storms happen during cold AMO periods.
So, did the AMO flip while I wasn’t watching?
geran says:
October 12, 2013 at 4:54 pm
“…Shouldn’t WUWT consider a “doctorate” program? … Seriously, a WUWT University….” (etc.)
*
The old Universities started somewhere as something new, once. The old Universities have proven themselves now to be fully corrupted and under the political thumb.
We need new Universities. WUWT has become a place where a great many scientists meet and debate and actually teach and do science.
I think Geran has made a very good suggestion.
In the head post: “quote from Marcia Hyatt”
Change to Wyatt.
[Thanks, Roger. Corrected–Bob]
“that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming,”
Anyone want to bet that the editors made him say that?
Jim G above is correct. Without referring to a” offsets the anthropogenic induced warming” is required so it passes “peer ” review.
But it reveals the whole IPCC dilemma and weakness. By admitting that these cycles can offset supposed CO2 induced warming, the grant that the small arming from humans is similar to natural variation, and so is small, and not so harmful.
The whole not even sanctioning a specify climate sensitivity as in past assessments, vives reasonable skeptics and luke warmers confidence that an sensitivity of 1 or 1.5 leads to small increases where the warming is slightly helpful to some aspects of the planet.
People starting to try to cover their butts, ahead of the probable cooling. 🙂
Non anthropogenic mechanisms that counteract the non-existent anthropogenic warming will just keep getting stronger and stronger.
The recognition by several folks of our Canadian Thanksgiving is appreciated.
We take pride in punching above our weight in the climate change wars. Prominent Canadians include McIntyre, McKitrick, Laframboise and Ball.
Not bad, eh?
@Political Junkie
And of course David Suzuki . 😉
@Political Junkie, you’re welcome. And, you are absolutely right.
lol, Andy, (yes, I see the 😉 ), Suzuki is an outlier. A waaaaaay outlier.
Thankyou for the best wishes for Thanksgiving. I shall celebrate by the river with my lovely (american) wife.
Suzuki is an outlier of course, but he has really become a dire embarassment lately. Could they find a spot for him at Penn State do you think?
=========================================================================
I’m glad you didn’t swallow! 😎
Heh, I have Suzuki nominated as number one in Pointman’s Prat of the Year awards.
But, every country has them, and Canada has certainly punched well above its weight in forcing honesty and integrity back up on the agenda in the Climate Wars.
Have a great day, Canadians!
(Do you eat turkey and pumpkin pie as well, or are there special delicacies of your own?)
Sorry, Bob. Thanks for this post, which along with Curry and Wyatt seems to signal a breakthrough in the research paradigm. After a long drought, some serious work is being done on trying to understand climate, instead of working from presuppositions. Even if it ends up being wrong, or only partially correct, it is at least a return to honest science and a genuine spirit of inquiry. Over at Judy Curry’s, co-author Wyatt got on the blog and answered numerous questions from readers about the paper, and did it frankly and politely. When was the last time that happened in relation to a peer-reviewed, published paper about climate?
AndyG55 says:
October 12, 2013 at 5:56 pm
And of course Ezra Levant.
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/canada/archives/2013/10/20131012-133512.html
No, NO, NO, the die hards, and that’s what they are, will yet again, discover how to cover their collective lies, with new theories, predictions, model output and a new consensus that yes, there is a pause, and were going to now proclaim that it will last longer, HOWEVER, believe us, warming will begin anew, and probably be much stronger. The media will listen, the EPA will push an agenda that the current prez could never get thru congress and the drum beat will go on. More heat will hide in the ocean, new maps will be colored orange and red to emphasize the scare and the left of liberal media will turn up their bull horns.
Seattle socialists will take this garbage agenda to their graves, they will NEVER admit they were wrong – that is the ONE thing you can make book on.
Some models are quite good at forecasts: