New book on the IPCC coming:
A new book about the IPCC will be revealed soon by Donna Laframboise, the title is inspired by this statement from Dr. Judith Curry:
Does the problems with the IPCC mean that WG1 science is incorrect? Not necessarily, but I agree that a “new trial” is needed. WG2 and WG3 reports pretty much belong in the dustbin, as far as I can tell.”
More on the book later. In related news, a new paper in Nature Climate Change says IPCC uses statistical techniques ‘out of date by well over a decade’ http://bit.ly/1ab7iVZ
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Antarctic continues to set sea ice records:
September 4th (Day 247) saw the 39th Daily Record of the Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent.
Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is 19.16 million sq km.
If you add up the number of daily records, 2013 is a distant 3rd behind 2008 and 2010. However, if you also add in 2nd place finishes, 2013 slightly edges out 2010. And 118 days remain in the year.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/39th-daily-record-of-year-for-antarctic-sea-ice-extent/
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The warming, it’s all in the adjustments:
http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/375808179914821632/photo/1
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Well worth a read:
Chris de Freitas responds to comments on his “ENSO drives the pause” paper with an addendum: http://wp.me/p7y4l-obN
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Satellite Data Shows a Very Active Tropical Atlantic, Gabrielle Weakens
Image Credit: NASA GOES Project
Tropical Storm Gabrielle has weakened to a depression by 11 a.m. EDT on Sept. 5, while three other low pressure areas struggle to develop in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured a panoramic view of all four systems while NASA’s Aqua satellite captured infrared data on Gabrielle and an adjacent low.
NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured a view of Gabrielle, an unnamed system east of it, and Systems 99L and 98L on Sept. 5 at 10:45 a.m. EDT. NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured all four systems in a view across the entire Atlantic Ocean. The image was created by NASA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. More: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-09/su-gwh090413.php
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Actual man (or animal) made climate change?
Overgrazing turning parts of Mongolian Steppe into desert
Overgrazing by millions of sheep and goats is the primary cause of degraded land in the Mongolian Steppe, one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems in the world, researchers say in a new report. The degraded land holds implications both for local food production and global climate.
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Let’s hope it doesn’t involve a realtor and federal home loan programs:
Scientists at the Zoological Society of London have devised a novel method to identify suitable new homes for animals under threat from climate change.
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But they are totally convinced AGW is in there somewhere:
The Financial Times reports: UK Met Office admits: ‘No evidence we are seeing things that could not have happened without natural weather variability’
‘We don’t have evidence that we are seeing things that could not have happened without natural weather variability doing its stuff,’ said Peter Stott of the UK Met Office, one of the report’s editors. “But potentially climate change can in some cases add something on top.”
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Throwing out the Krudd with the dirty bathwater:
Warning Signs: Will Australians Vote to End the Carbon Tax?
Fifteen million registered voters in Australia will go to the polls and render their judgment on September 7. It is a vote that should be reported upon in the United States, but it more likely to be ignored or buried.
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What’s 100% among friends?
New paper finds climate model assumptions on cloud-aerosol interactions may be off by ± 100%
A paper published today in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics demonstrates the huge uncertainties of computer modeling of aerosol–cloud interaction effects, which are one of the “major sources of uncertainty in climate models.” According to the authors, the standard deviation around the mean cloud condensation nuclei varies globally between a minimum of about ± 30% over some marine regions to ± 40–100% over most land areas and high latitudes. This is only one of the factors affecting clouds in climate models, and clouds are but one of the many major uncertainties in climate models.
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It is such a pity that it is not Juliar getting hammered at the polls in Aus.
Only 3 years have seen the first hurricane of the season form after September 5th. The record for latest formation of the season’s first hurricane is Gustav which formed on September 11, 2002.
This could be a record setting year but there’s still a chance it could be more active (and destructive!) than normal even with the late start.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-09-05/ice-melting-faster-from-greenland-to-antarctica-seen-in-un-leak
More dross from those on the taxpayers teat.
How about having a book list. Christmas will soon be upon us and I could do with some help sorting out my presents list. Looks like Donna is making an early bid for the number one spot.
Bill Jamison says:
September 6, 2013 at 3:37 am.
“…. but there’s still a chance it could be more active (and destructive!) than normal even with the late start.”….
What odds would you give on that prediction?
Stumbled over this little ‘the sun did it’ program featuring Svensmark with a chamber where we can see cosmic rays (or the consequences thereof) actually producing water droplets as they travel through the air.
http://www.dr.dk/tv/se/solens-stjerne-viden-om/solens-stjerne-viden-om
Meet the man 21:45 in. See the chamber 24:00 mins in.
Anyone translate?
Tropical storm Gabrielle fizzles: Why has hurricane season been so calm? (+video)
Don’t worry, Dr Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology at Weather Underground, is hunting down why the season is so calm. There’s no El-Nino year, where the Atlantic tropical cyclones normally form is not anomalously cold, sea surface temperatures are actually above normal, so there goes the usual suspects.
Dr Masters suspects it’s all the hot dry air blowing off the Sahara, it’s been “quenching” the storms that did develop.
Meteorologists think the Madden-Julian oscillation, which is not usually seen at NFL games, which alternates stretches of intense and reduced precipitation every 30 to 60 days, may be at play.
So just wait for it, and the predictions, err, projections of the models shall be confirmed. Because if they weren’t, then the models could slightly possibly be a little bit in error, which of course never happens.
Regarding the record Antarctic sea ice. There is a meme that this is “consistent” with global warming. I believe the logic is that increased snowfall is the reason. If this is indeed the case, I’m guessing whomever came up with that explanation has never done work or played on ice. Where I live, we go on the ice regularly. Roads are made on lakes. Snow is a bad thing for good ice. Snow means (really good) insulation which means thinner and weaker ice that is slower to form and quicker to break up. Snow does not increase sea ice. Snow would increase glaciation which would increase the size of the ice shelves, but then we should see a related drop in sea level. Given that the sea seems to still be recovering from the last period of glaciation (that is, the climate is still changing . . . naturally), the data suggests that snowfall in the Antarctic has not increased.
“Satellite Data Shows a Very Active Tropical Atlantic”
I’m sorry…what?!?!? No it does not!! Since when does (as of Sept. 6 am) 1 suspect area with %0 chance of development, 1 suspect area with %10 chance of development, a suspect area with %50 chance of development getting ready to go ashore in Mexico & a dissipating remnant of a weak Tropical Storm Gabrielle qualify as “Very Active”?
Can we get some accuracy in the reporting of the state of the tropical atmosphere?
WUWT indeed!!
jeff
“‘We don’t have evidence that we are seeing things that could not have happened without natural weather variability doing its stuff,’”
The phraseologly of all UK Met Office scientists seems studied, or perhaps arises when you be- come very defensive after a decade of embarrassing reversals. Its like their not being sure what was causing UK’s “DISAPPOINTING WEATHER” when they meant disappointing forecasts (the weather was just normally lousy as usual – their expectations for balmy BBQ summers and no snow ever again was from totally invalid theory and models based on them). Indeed, they do have ‘evidence’ that things that happened, have happened because of natural variability – there are no square hurricanes or ice forming on the ocean bottoms, glaciers sliding backwards – no the same sort of stuff has happened throughout history and beyond. Do they know they come across as defeated, pathetic. Let it all go and we will all be supportive and forgive the couple of hundred million pound computers you failed with.
Sorry for the confusion, but the title of my upcoming book – which is about Rajendra Pachauri’s abysmal leadership of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – comes from a quote from that gentleman himself:
IPCC studies only peer-review science. Let someone publish the data in a decent credible publication. I am sure IPCC would then accept it, otherwise we can just throw it into the dustbin.
source: http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2009-11-10/india/28069084_1_himalayan-glaciers-climate-change-global-temperatures-rise (see the very end)
Like so many of Pachauri’s pronouncements, these claims are utterly false. Approximately 30% of the sources cited by the past two IPCC climate assessments (2001 and 2007) were not peer-reviewed academic publications.
If 1/3 of the IPCC’s source material belongs in “the dustbin” according to its own chairman, the IPCC isn’t a reliable source of information. Let’s keep that in mind when it releases its new report later this month.
“Tropical Storm Gabrielle has weakened to a …”
NOAA is studying all four clumps of clouds desperately seeking and praying for some Simpson 5s. Their hurricane spotting aircraft have been instructed to circle the clumps in a counterclockwise direction. European and North American ice breakers have been sent up to the Arctic to crunch around searching for polar bears…..(sarc off)
Off by 100%? That is worse than random noise!
Donna-his definition dovetails with the UN’s media education global push that I explained here. http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/descending-to-a-connected-kleptocracy-via-the-digital-learning-and-climate-change-ruses/
UNESCO and the OECD have both redefined what constitutes literacy and it’s not about deciphering print well. In part it is now about what sources to trust and which to respect. Peer-reviewed or put forth by ‘experts’ is being taught as a defer to trusted source that need not be questioned further.
How convenient, huh?
“New paper finds climate model assumptions on cloud-aerosol interactions may be off by ± 100%”
Climastrology: the only “science” where a margin of error of ± 100% is par for the course.
This is not science.
philjourdan said on September 6, 2013 at 5:09 am:
Ah come on, it is just climate science. Throw a few tens of millions of dollars at it, wait a few years, and they’ll be able to accurately hindcast the past decade within 25%. That’s four times better. What more do you want? That’s good enough for the IPCC!
UN has leaked to the BBC that Antartican ice sheet is melting faster than initially thought.
With the Antarctic ice extent at record highs and the Arctic refreezing over the last week so fast that yachts were trapped in ice forming behind them (22 yachts had to abandon their quest for the NW passage trip), how come we have Cryosphere today graphs showing things still shrinking so fast? Here’s DMI’s ocean surface temp map of the arctic – the “white” is areas of ice forming.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php
And Nansen’s ice area graph – it is at the minimum and poised to go up.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/1452598
another paper to peruse soon.
regards
can’t recall seeing this on wuwt:
4 Sept: Guardian: Suzanne Goldenberg: Scientists call for overhaul of UN ‘blockbuster’ climate reports
As the IPCC prepares for its next major assessment, experts and governments propose more targeted and frequent studies
Thomas Stocker, a climate scientist at the University of Bern and a co-chair of the UN climate panel, said he had sought permission to convene a public debate on the future of the IPCC at one of the biggest gatherings on the scientific calendar, the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).
Some 22,000 people are expected at the meeting, which takes place in San Francisco in December. Stocker said he saw the meeting as a chance to broaden the discussion on the future of the IPCC.
“With that input directly bottom-up from the scientists, I can help in this discussion and certainly facilitate that the views of scientists, those individuals and colleague that carry the burden of the assessment and provide their time and intellectual expertise, are heard,” Stocker said…
“I think myself that the IPCC has outgrown its usefulness in the way in which it does things,” said Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.
Andrew Weaver, a lead IPCC author and a Green party leader who earlier this year was elected to the British Columbia legislature, agreed it was time to shift away from the blockbuster style of reports…
Trenberth argued that with the effects of climate change already visible in real-time in terms of extreme weather events, the international community could not afford to wait for several years to hear from scientists.
“We can’t wait seven years between assessments,” he said…
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/04/scientists-overhaul-un-climate-report-ipcc
pat:
Thankyou for your post at September 6, 2013 at 5:46 am
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/06/the-wuwt-hot-sheet-for-friday-september-6th-2013/#comment-1409405
You report that the ‘inner circle’ of climastrology are calling for a leaner IPCC. That is simply a call for others – not them – to be dumped so they can keep their jobs as long as possible.
The writing is on the wall for climastrologists.
Mene,mene, tekel upharsin.
The ‘inner circle’ of climastrology have read the writing. And they understand it. The Copenhagen CoP in December 2009 weighed the power of their work, and it was found wanting, so no successor to the Kyoto Protocol could be – or will be – achieved.
And that lack of any successor to the Kyoto Protocol makes the IPCC irrelevant.
So, the political impetus behind the AGW scare collapsed at the Copenhagen CoP. And following collapse of that political impetus the funding of the scare would slowly reduce.
The ‘inner circle’ of climastrology always knew they and their work were wanting. But their reputations and jobs rely on that work. The funding of that work is to slowly reduce as the irrelevance of the IPCC takes effect. And their call for a leaner IPCC is a call to lighten the sinking ship by throwing others overboard.
Richard
Breaking News
IARC-JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent graph now at Version 2.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Interesting tidbit: 2012 minimum is now 0.3×10⁶ km² worse than we thought. Go figure.
pat says:
September 6, 2013 at 5:46 am
richardscourtney says:
September 6, 2013 at 6:18 am
Agree. The next issue of IPCC will be essentially irrelevant. The team see that it’s better to kill it since it’s already nearly dead in the public view. They don’t want to be seen to be klinging to a scuttled ship. The IPCC schedule is also no longer acceptable for those getting a bit long in the tooth.
“Trenberth argued …
“We can’t wait seven years between assessments,”
He’s been feverishly searching for relevance since the “hiatus”. His ‘travesty’ comment re missing heat and his present sorry quest – on the one hand he has it disappear into the ocean deeps, on the other hand he has it stirring up more powerful storms to cover his bases. The desire to speed things up is a manifestation of the desperation.
There is no quicker and surer way to wreak havoc on an ecology than introducing non-native species. Zebra Mussels in the US Great Lakes, Russian Thistle (‘tumbleweed’) in the continental US, and Australias rabbits and cane toads come to mind.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
September 6, 2013 at 4:10 am
Klotzbach and Gray called a lot of attention to the MJO in their last two week update, and said it appeared to be moving into a more favorable (for development) pattern. That was a week or so ago, their next assessment will be interesting.