Guest essay by David Archibald
A correspondent in the Corn Belt emailed on 10th August:
“Here in north central Illinois at exit 56 on I-80, most of the corn was planted by May 15.
The GDD totals since May 15 at Moline, Illinois.
- May 15-31 + 1.7 GDD >normal.
- June 1-30 – 32.7 GDD < normal.
- July 1-31 – 94.5 GDD < normal.
- August 1-9 – 33.9 GDD < normal.
Total since May 15 = 1695.0 GDD = -159.4 < normal, or about 8 normal days in early September. Corn that has a 2,500 GDD rating needs about 40 days yet. Most of the corn planted in NC Illinois is in the 2,450 GDD to 2,700 GDD maturity area.
The area of greatest risk is in IA north of Route 30, MN, WI and the Dakotas.”
The corn market doesn’t see a problem with corn prices off 30%-odd from where they started the year, as shown in Figure 1 at right.
To illustrate the problem in parts of the Corn Belt, Figure 2 shows the average Growing Degree Days (GDD) experienced in Northwest Indiana, fairly close to the center of the Corn Belt:
From where we are at the time of the incoming correspondence, marked on the graph at 10th August, the heat received by the corn crop starts falling away.
Staying in Northwest Indiana, if we assume that the crop there was also 159 GDD below a normal season, Figure 3 illustrates the effect of on achieving the necessary 2500 GDD for crop maturity:
The upper red line shows the cumulative GDD for a crop planted on 15th May if the season had been normal from that date. Under that case, 2,500 GDD would be achieved by 26th September well before the first frost date for the area. The season has been colder than average with GDD for July 15 per cent below normal. The green line shows the fate of the crop if the season reverts to normality from 10th August. Under that case, 2,500 GDD is reached by 17th October, very close to the first Fall frost date. The lower dark blue line shows the effect of the season being 10% cooler from here.
While we cheer on the Arctic sea ice extent, there are farmers in the northern half of the Corn Belt who are now concerned about how their crop will finish.
Related articles
- Corn in U.S. Seen by Cordonnier at Risk of Damage From Frost (bloomberg.com)
- Indiana Farmers Look for the Heat to Return (hoosieragtoday.com)
UPDATE: Lows this morning from Dr. Ryan Maue – Anthony
Any loss in the northern corn belt is possibly going to be offset by huge bumper crops in the Mid-Atlantic and south and the southern half of the corm belt. The corn is 10 feet tall in some places from all the rain they have had and the worry now is that they are hoping they don’t get winds that knock the heavy stalks over.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA…INCLUDING THE BORDER REGION…IRON RANGE…AND
ARROWHEAD. FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN…MAINLY AROUND
HAYWARD…WINTER…DRUMMOND…GLIDDEN…MERCER AND PARK FALLS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND…WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MNZ018&warncounty=MNC061&firewxzone=MNZ018&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook#.UgsMg9bD_Dc
This kind of news can run chills down a farmers back. For Mid August.
Should have included a description of Growing Degree Days (GDD). Unless you are an American horticulturist, you’d have no idea what this article is about.
http://ohioline.osu.edu/agf-fact/0101.html
And then they say warming is bad…
Looking warmer than normal upper Midwest next 2-3wks. after this brief cool spell. Good heat and humidity to get that crop up and over the finish line.
I told you to starts packing your bag at >40
it is just that nobody is listening to me
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
Thanks for the explanation, Michael
Did we reach “peak Corn?”
TimB says:
August 13, 2013 at 10:32 pm
Did we reach “peak Corn?”
__________________________
OK, that’s it. you get the Thread Gold Star.
I fear it is called weather. In Ukraine & Russia they expect a record harvest of almost anything they planted as they had a wet & sunny summer.
Brazil and China wheat crop damaged by frost, but fewer frosts in Australia.
It’s weather, unless persuasive data says otherwise.
LucVC, I agree with you, it is just weather. The problem is the overall trend, all of these happening together backs up Skeptical claims that not only has the earth temp gone stasis for 17 years but you can almost see the hint of a slight decline since 2005. Now before someone attacks me, yes that could simply be noise and 5 – 10 years from now, that decline will be smoothed out. That said, there is alot of info, pointing to the direction that the earth is NO longer warming and is stasis.
The warmist, have always pointed to individual events, not too point them out, but to build bulk evidence in multiple data sets that support their theory. Even though individual events are just weather, they did have point, when mother nature was cooperating, that when multiple different data sets all point to one conclusion, they might be on to something.
Those conclusions say two things, the earth is no longer warming, at least temporarily, and warming is better than the alternative.
Was corn grown this far north in the 60s and 70s or is this just a response to the ethanol boom?
Total since May 15 = 1695.0 GDD = -159.4 < normal, or about 8 normal days in early September. Corn that has a 2,500 GDD rating needs about 40 days yet. Most of the corn planted in NC Illinois is in the 2,450 GDD to 2,700 GDD maturity area.
Speaking of September, meaning August?
Whether the corn crop is too big in the South, or gets wiped out by frost in the North, readers here won’t be suprised by who the msm blames for it.
More carbon dioxide in the air means faster growing plants. On the other hand, if it is raining all the time, those twenty ton tractors can’t be taken out into the fields.
I grew up in Indiana and as a boy spent July in Wisconsin, about halfway up on the Lake Michigan shore. This was in the late 1940s to early 1960s. Corn was planted heavily in both Indiana (not far from the Michigan line) and Wisconsin; the old saying was that the farmer hoped it would be “knee high by the fourth of July.” There were other crops also, of course; but the corn was what we laypeople watched the most. Much depended on the spring–when could the crops be sown? As I recall, in northern and central Wisconsin there was more spring than winter wheat, but that’s long ago, and I was not the most informed observer. Spring could stay fairly cold in that part of the country. I remember a light dusting of snow on my father’s birthday, June 21, in Huntington County, Indiana one year.
Very interesting article, as was the link to the Ohio explanation of GDD.
Me, it’s just weather as usual. I am convinced the Sun governs our climate through it’s activity levels. No idea about specifics, but I just know it does. William Herschel won bets on the price of corn/wheat in Britain by counting Sunspots, the more there were, the cheaper the corn/wheat, the fewer there were, the higher the price! Who says empirical evidence isn’t any good over puter models? AtB
Michael said @ur momisugly August 13, 2013 at 10:08 pm
The concept of Growing Degree Days is not unique to American horticulturists and has been discussed here before.
Even the wiki-bloody-pedia has an article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_degrees
Predicted corn yields are down a little from average. Development is a little behind average.
http://www.agweb.com/blog/Farmland_Forecast_148/
I, too, would have appreciated a definition of GDD in the article. It would have made the article clearer without the reader having to stop and look up the abbreviation.
Michael says: August 13, 2013 at 10:08 pm “Should have included a description of Growing Degree Days (GDD). Unless you are an American horticulturist, …”
Ixodes ticks, blacklegged deer ticks, vector for burgeoning Borrelia burgdorferi is exquisitely sensitive to GDD, synchronizing stadial activity by diapause. Because Ixodes aren’t tied to photosynthesis and, thus, daylight, a measure of ‘growing degree hours’ is useful.
The “can’t post this comment” glitch is tedious. Any work arounds?
Reading through the Wikipedia GDD article, I noticed Weather Derivatives.
So if the crop is 15% less, this probably means biogasoline and biodiesel will still be okay thankfully.(sarc off)
Crosspatch: I notice that the corn is very high this year, but is it producing more grain? My tomatoes and cucks are all over the place but they haven’t set much fruit – lack of daylight is my guess or possibly fewer bees due to the wet.
This morning in Whiteland Indiana (Central Indiana, about 20 miles south of Indy), it was a balmy 48F at 6:15 this morning, and the predicted high for today is only 72F. The cool weather (below 80 for the highs with night-time lows in the upper 40s to low 50s) is supposed to persist for about 3 more days. After that, they are projecting a 2-week period (so far) with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s, which should help the corn crop.
Last year by this date, Central Indiana had close to 40 days with temperatures > 90F for the high, with about 10 over 100F. This year, we have had FOUR (that’s right 4) days with temperatures > 90F for the high, with none over 100F. I know this is just “weather”, but it has been SIGNIFICANTLY cooler this entire year in Central Indiana than it was in 2012.
However, the corn has had 0 heat stress, and is actually looking quite good. If we get a decent number of 80+ degree days and a reasonable amount of rain between now and October 1st, the corn here in Central Indiana is going to be a “bumper crop”.