Open Thread

open_thread

I’ll be offline for a few hours, and won’t be able to publish anything new for a few hours as I’ll be without Internet access, though I may get lucky and have a moment midway where I can check in.

Guest posters are welcome to publish stories, and moderators are encouraged to post news tips.

Feel free to discuss items of interest within WUWT topic policy.

Anthony

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80 thoughts on “Open Thread

  1. How about a thread devoted to the NYT’s piece in their regular Tuesday science supplement today, on THE PAUSE. I see this as a major development. This is the great bastion of western climate alarmism conceding the lack of additional warming. The piece itself is full of self-serving hypocrisy, but also surprisingly frank in some ways…

    http://www.nytimes.com/pages/science/index.html

  2. Just as an FYI for everyone, tech news site Ars technica bans anyone who posts dissenting comments in their climate articles. Have a different view? Ban.

  3. Hank busted Keenan, and Keenan is dodging and MIA….

    You’d think if your paper was that big of a deal….you might want to correct it’s mistakes

    ========================
    James Sexton says:
    June 9, 2013 at 11:53 am

    Regarding the Keenan/Met dustup. Hank, a fine statistician did a head to head comparison of the models. AR1 vs ARIMA 3,1,0. Hands down ARIMA out performs AR1 in every possible metric. Well written without the hard to follow statistical jargon and formulas. It utterly destroys the Met position.

    http://suyts.wordpress.com/2013/06/09/keenan-confirmed-met-position-laid-to-utter-waste/

  4. As if it were relative to CAGW, the NYT article includes this announcement: “most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently.” Doh…

    Bearing in mind that the earth’s climate has been trending warmer since the last Ice Age, that brilliant statement could be applied to almost any period in the past 12,000 years (excepting, of course, the LIA). The same holds true for sea level rise, all without the help of anthropogenic CO2. It’s amazing how frightening ‘facts’ can appear when you’re ignorant of the context. As Goethe said, “Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit.”

  5. There is an Interesting article over at The Resilient Earth blog describing the problems with prematurely failing solar panels:

    http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/solar-power-failing-world-wide

    “Most of the concerns over quality center on China, home to the majority of the world’s solar panel manufacturing capacity. Inspections of Chinese factories on behalf of developers and financiers revealed that over the last 18 months even the most reputable companies are substituting cheaper, untested materials. Others are outsourcing production to smaller, less reputable companies. SolarBuyer, a company based in Marlborough, Mass., discovered defect rates of 5.5% to 22% during audits of 50 Chinese factories over the last 18 months.”

    According to the article, cheap solar panels are not likely to last anywhere near the 20 year manufacturers’ expectation, with many failing in 2.5 years. Another boondoggle in the making?

  6. Here is something that climate and geoscience have to work out among themselves one day, until than the message carrier will be blamed from promoting pseudoscience or be declared an insane crank, just because there are many natural events for which we have no adequate explanation.
    Here we go: Ob and Yenisey are two largest sources of the Arctic’s fresh water inflow, discharging ~32,000 m3/sec of fresh water in the Arctic Ocean. Some years later portion of these waters will pass through the Denmark Strait with the East Greenland Current, one of the main contributors to the sub-polar gyre -SPG, affecting salinity and thermo-haline circulation. The SPG is the home of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscilation – AMO.
    And what I see in the data is the direct correlation of the AMO (generated by the SPG) with geomagnetic changes 12 years earlier, at the delta of the two great Siberian rivers 6,000km away.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/YAMAL-GMF-AMO.htm

    Further away from this general area the correlation progressively weakens. Just result of observations.
    Is this against the laws of physics or just a plain coincidence lasting whole of 140 years, decade by decade?

  7. Anybody know of a reasonable approach to estimating joules required per millimetre of SLR? I know, depends on how deep down the energy goes; thermal coefficient of expansion varies and all that, but it’s more the contribution due to melting ice and irregular bounding shoreline that are giving me fits. Any suggestions welcome!

  8. Is there anything new with the Climate Gate emails since the password was released?

  9. Anthony personally should see this!!!!! Someone is posting comments on Bishop Hill’s website using his (Anthony’s) name. Judging from the comments it is not Anthony although I was fooled the first couple of times. I can’t believe there are not warm relations between Anthony and the Bishop so Anthony may want to put a stop to the practice.

    Some one is also posting there using Pointman’s handle. I know he reads WUWT so this is a heads up for him, too. When I get to Pointman in my travels around the web I intend to alert him.

  10. bladeshearer says:
    June 11, 2013 at 1:10 pm
    As if it were relative to CAGW, the NYT article includes this announcement: “most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently.” Doh…
    =====
    most (but not all) of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently…so the present warming is not unprecedented

    which is only a fraction of a degree…which does not denote a trend

  11. The sun has one very small sunspot about to rotate from our view. Usually Spaceweather.com has a picture of one or two spots rotating from the backside of the sun but they don’t right now. Wonder if we are going to have our first SSN of zero in the next day or so.

  12. With all the Murray Salby discussion going on, it got me wondering about setting up a multi-decadal experiment to measure CO2 outgassing from the Pacific Ocean. If I was going to do that, where would be a good location for the measurements ……….. ?

  13. bladeshearer says:
    June 11, 2013 at 1:10 pm
    As if it were relative to CAGW, the NYT article includes this announcement: “most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently.” Doh…
    It’s amazing how frightening ‘facts’ can appear when you’re ignorant of the context. As Goethe said, “Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit.”
    —————————————-
    I like Schiller’s take on it:

    “Against Ignorance, even the gods contend in vain”.

  14. ‘The NYT says

    ‘Rarely do they mention that most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently’

    The author is confused about the difference between ‘it has warmed’ and ‘it is warming’. Or between the data itself and its first derivative wrt time.

    Consider a ball thrown into the air. In the first half the ball is going up. Its height is increasing and its direction is up. The long term trend (average) of its position is up. At some point it reaches its highest point. The direction is neither up nor down, and the long term trend is still up. On its way down the direction is obviously down but still higher that when it started (there has been warming). And its average height (long term trend) is still up. Only when it returns to its starting point do all the indicators go to zero.

    Important point. Long term trends and recent observations do not tell you anything about what is happening now ..just about what has happened. Newton (and Leibnitz) understood this 350 years ago and invented calculus to handle such problems.

    It is a shame that today’s climatologists and their apologists do not seem to have progressed thus far in their study of scientific mathematics as few of them have grasped it.

  15. I stumbled on this today. For those who think UHI or Watts et al. 2012‘s paper (link at upper right of this page) concerning siting issues is much ado about nothing, I’d love to hear an explanation.

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/wxhistory/wxhistory.html

    Here’s the text in case it can’t be retrieved after today. (Bold is mine.)

    NWS Wilmington Ohio Weather History

    Please select the desired date to view the weather history for that day, thet hit submit.

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
    Submit

    June 11
    Ohio’s coldest June temperature occurred in 1972, but more impressive was the difference in temperature noticed between urban and rural weather stations. In Columbus, the difference was 12 degrees!

    Multiple casualties resulted from the 5 mile path of a F-2 tornado that went through Fairfield, Perry, and Licking Counties in 1922.

  16. PaulH says June 11, 2013 at 1:14 pm
    “There is an Interesting article over at The Resilient Earth blog describing the problems with prematurely failing solar panels…”

    That’s not a bad finesse, Paul, and a good point. China supports (say) the UN’s/Greens’ drive to ‘renewables’ and they corner the market in PVs. The West installs, and comes to rely on PVs, which the Chinese have made sure will not survive too long. West sees excess cost in maintaining ‘renewables’ and also suffers power outages, while the Dragon forges ahead with its agenda.

    Not bad for a conspiracy. No?

  17. Here is one for you…
    Reblog of a story on a SLAPP suit and WInd Turbines:

    http://ontario-wind-resistance.org/2013/06/09/legal-bullies-wind-turbine-corporation-picks-ridiculous-excuse-to-go-after-environmentalist/

    Ezra Levant, Edmonton Sun
    A $32 billion energy corporation has filed a massive lawsuit against an Ontario environmentalist named Esther Wrightman. It’s a SLAPP suit: Strategic litigation against public participation. It’s not really about legal arguments. It’s about crushing Wrightman with legal bills and burning up her time, so she can’t spend time campaigning against them.

    The lawsuit doesn’t allege Wrightman vandalized their property, or trespassed, or anything like that. Their complaint is that, on her homemade website, Wrightman mocked the company’s name. She even had the temerity to publish a satirical version of their logo. That’s it. That’s why they hired three lawyers at one of Canada’s largest law firms, McCarthy Tetrault, to sue her into the ground.

    And the only reason you have not heard of this lawsuit — the Canadian Civil Liberties Association is not defending her free speech, the CBC has not put this on their nightly news — is because the corporate bully here is not an oil company like Exxon. It’s a wind turbine company called NextEra. See, that kind of bullying is OK.

    Welcome to the world of Green Energy!

  18. Antarctic sea ice forming very rapidly as we go into the SH winter. A 500,000 increase over the anomaly (ie the average increase over this period) in the last week, although it has fallen back a bit today.

    Interestingly, the increase in Antarctic sea ice started around the time the time CFCs and other ozone destroying gases started to decline and was a predicted consequence. Maybe climate science has finally got a prediction right.

    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n11/fig_tab/ngeo1296_F3.html

    Be interesting to see what happens next SH spring, with the albedo increase from more sea ice.

  19. Latitude says:
    June 11, 2013 at 1:08 pm

    Hank busted Keenan, and Keenan is dodging and MIA….

    You’d think if your paper was that big of a deal….you might want to correct it’s mistakes

    ========================
    James Sexton says:
    June 9, 2013 at 11:53 am

    Regarding the Keenan/Met dustup. Hank, a fine statistician did a head to head comparison of the models. AR1 vs ARIMA 3,1,0. Hands down ARIMA out performs AR1 in every possible metric. Well written without the hard to follow statistical jargon and formulas. It utterly destroys the Met position.

    http://suyts.wordpress.com/2013/06/09/keenan-confirmed-met-position-laid-to-utter-waste/

    =================================================
    Err…… a little clarity. Hanks findings support what Keenan was saying. The Met has it all wrong, and Keenan was right. The AR(1) model is useless for determining anything, and on every measurable metric, Keenan’s ARIMA was shown to be superior.

  20. Pokerguy

    The NYTimes has two articles: The Pause in global temperatures and the Great Lakes water levels.

    Not mentioned, but implied, Natural Variation overwhelms the impact of CO2. The message should be loud and clear: we don’t understand Natural Variation; Natural Variation is more powerful than CO2; if Anthropogenic CO2 is THE climate driver, CO2 isn’t very powerful; CO2 is a greenhouse gas if we measure it in a box, on a lab bench, in a controlled physics lab. The take home message, CO2 is a bit player, in a bit role, making a bit contribution on a grand stage in the Grand Theater of Climate Change. No wonder climate scientists can’t find the CO2 signal; a trace gas providing a trace impact.

    The NYTimes Great Lakes water levels article does not mention my measuring at the end of my dock 15 inches of water level rise from last September’s water level on Lake Huron two weeks ago. I have heard there has been more rain since. The Snow Pack of Northern Ontario is substantial this winter, so the water level is projected by the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) to be 6 inches higher this summer than last summer. 300 tons more carried by Great Lakes Carrier ships per inch of increase water levels. Officially, the lowest level YEAR on the Great Lakes, measured since 1837 was…1964. The highest record level was..1986. In 1986, Chicago was regularly flooded and the Lake Front properties owners, who represented billions of dollars of waterfront property, were more than displeased and went to USA Congress who authorized the ACE to dredge the St. Clair River to provide an outlet. Power politics from a Chicago (sound familiar) group, pressing Congress and ACE to act. Hmmm. The ACE is being asked to find the Goldie Locks just right water level between competing…Corporate interests.

    It seems the NYTimes and its reporters have some more reading to do to flush out their articles on Catastrophic Change. At this point in time, what they say: it just ain’t so.

  21. Snotrocket says:
    June 11, 2013 at 2:15 pm
    “That’s not a bad finesse, Paul, and a good point. China supports (say) the UN’s/Greens’ drive to ‘renewables’ and they corner the market in PVs. The West installs, and comes to rely on PVs, which the Chinese have made sure will not survive too long. ”

    One correction; we don’t RELY on PV here in Germany. We RELY on the spinning reserve of gas plants. PV doesn’t do reliable.

  22. @willr
    INterestingly, the minority Liberal government introduced an anti-SLAPP bill in the House just last week. Bill 83 Protection of Public Participation Act. The linked article does not say when she was actually served. I wonder if some tree-hugging MPP pushed for the introduction of the Bill, just to provide some help for her.

    http://ontla.on.ca/web/bills/bills_detail.do?locale=en&Intranet=&BillID=2810

    THe provisions are quite good and contain a deadly ‘gotcha’ for any party in NextEra’s shoes. Not that I am generally sympathetic to tree-huggers, but the regime under which wind farms operate is outrageous. And it sounds like she has a number of good counter-claims against NextEra. The Bill provides for a summary judgment procedure to cut off what would usually be a long-drawn defamation suit, And the plaintiff cannot win: if the anti-Slapp motion wins, the plaintiff pays *full indemnity costs*. If the motion loses, the plaintiff does not get costs. THAT is a substantial change from usual Ontario practice. And summary judgment motions start at about $50,000 each party….

    AND if the judge thinks that the action was brought in bad faith, he can award damages in addition. And the plaintiff cannot amend the statement of claim to avoid an anti-slapp motion.

    I hope that the Bill passes quickly.
    And no, I don’t like wind turbines at any time, much less wind farms supported by highway robbery level feed in tariffs.

  23. Meanwhile, good ol’ Former Vice President Al Gore lamented on Tuesday that scientists “won’t let us yet” link tornadoes to climate change. Let’s you know just how important the “science” is to him. Since it was a friendly venue, he was surprisingly honest, stating “there’s a political interest in determining climate change causes extreme weather.”

    and there you have it. The battle we’re fighting all wrapped up with a nice little bow on top.

    Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/304755-gore-says-record-breaking-tornadoes-a-result-of-climate-change#ixzz2VwqjYo00

  24. Latimer Alder says:
    June 11, 2013 at 1:55 pm
    “‘The NYT says
    ‘Rarely do they mention that most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently’
    The author is confused about the difference between ‘it has warmed’ and ‘it is warming’. Or between the data itself and its first derivative wrt time.
    Consider a ball thrown into the air. In the first half the ball is going up. Its height is increasing and its direction is up. ”

    Even simpler. “Historical record” is meaningless with regard to temperature. Historians use old writings; “prehistory” is what happened before historic writings. With temperature there is the instrumental record and the proxies, no historical record. It’s meaningless and that is probably why the NYT socialist progressives have used the word. Or are they smart enough to know what they did? Probably not. If they want historical records i.e. writings maybe some old rune stones will do; Newfoundland was called Vinland by the Norse, how about that.

    And they left behind runestones.

    http://www.redicecreations.com/radio/2013/06/RIR-130604.php

  25. Why haven’t skeptics won the war yet?

    Nature is mocking the models, yet the null hypothesis seems to be firmly in the warmists’ grasp – what has to happen to overturn the popular (mis)conception?

  26. Not sure if Anthony will approve of this – but it is a genuine question/request for this open thread!

    Can anyone recommend good factual solar power websites with real/genuine guidance for small solar panel applications. I do not just want an off grid mains system – I will be looking for a small mains (240V, probs less than 3kW) system for installation in Portugal later (which their appears to be lots of info for) – but also I am needing a low voltage system (probs 24 V?) just to power a well water pump to raise water up about 10 to 15 metres (max) to a tank and thence it will be gravity fed to the house. I am struggling to find suitable pumps (only need low flow/output) or sensibly priced inverters for mains voltage pumps. Our well is 100m from the house and I want an independent pump system to top up the tank when required. Low cost/maintainence is key here! Any tips fromn opthers who have done the same would be useful. PS – I have seen some stuff online in the USA – even a solar borehole pump – but shipping cost is prohibitive compared to the goods, so European sites would be better?

  27. Just read an article about the magnetic N. Pole racing toward Siberia. What’s up VUKCEVIC?

  28. For those following the slow decline in global temperatures:

    It is now possible to see the data in HadCRUT3gl till 2013.18 in WFT:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1980/to:2013.18/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1980/to:2001/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2001/to:2013.18/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1980/to:2013.18/mean:13

    The HadCRUT3gl trend since 2001 is now near -0.56°C (-1.01°F) per century.

    It is now possible to see the data in HadCRUT4gl till 2013.26 in WFT:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1980/to:2013.26/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1980/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2013.26/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1980/to:2013.26/mean:13

    The HadCRUT4gl trend since 2002 is now near -0.5°C (-0.9°F) per century:

    I have posted both graphics and links in my web page.

  29. tonyb,
    Yes, I also link to the CET data, but although it is considered a good proxy for global temperatures it is not the same kind of data. And “slow decline” does not apply to CET; Last time I checked, the annual mean anomalies from the Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) data set showed a decline of some 0.6°C from 2003 to 2012! (that’s cold!)

  30. suyts says:
    June 11, 2013 at 3:03 pm
    ====
    but my headline had more “grab” to it…
    ….saying the MET was wrong….well, no one would look

    LOL

  31. Asking for an extreme weather page.

    Extreme weather is the last resort of global warming fanaticism. Sadly there is no such page showing charts of.

    droughts
    floods
    hurricanes
    tornados
    cyclone energy
    etc

    for the world, US and perhaps Europe and Australia..

    This would be an extremely useful link to refer to in any extreme weather discussion.

  32. FWIW, because of this article (from this February)

    http://www.examiner.com/article/new-record-low-temperature-for-northern-hemisphere-set-russia-s-siberia

    I sent an email to the maintainer of this page

    http://wmo.asu.edu/northern-hemisphere-lowest-temperature

    (it says the record is a tie between 1892 and 1933)

    I got a polite email back saying the Russian weather service had not authenticated the record so they were not going to count it.

    I do not know if they were being warmist or not. Seems to me the 1892 low might not have been officially authenticated, but they are going with it.

  33. philincalifornia says: “With all the Murray Salby discussion going on, it got me wondering about setting up a multi-decadal experiment to measure CO2 outgassing from the Pacific Ocean. If I was going to do that, where would be a good location for the measurements ……….. ?”

    Not on top of a volcano.

  34. jorgekafkazar says:
    June 11, 2013 at 6:20 pm

    philincalifornia says: “With all the Murray Salby discussion going on, it got me wondering about setting up a multi-decadal experiment to measure CO2 outgassing from the Pacific Ocean. If I was going to do that, where would be a good location for the measurements ……….. ?”

    Not on top of a volcano.

    Oh come on. They do a fine job keeping the volcanic and urban components out of the CO2 record at Mauna Loa. Go read http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/04/under-the-volcano-over-the-volcano/

    However, you are right – this experiment has to be done at sea level. Duh.

  35. ATTENTION MASSACHUSETTS VOTERS!

    My own Representative in Congress, the vile Ed Malarkey, is running for the Senate seat vacated by our ersatz Secretary of State, John Faux Kerry. Malarkey, in case you just wandered in from Siberia, was the co-sponsor of the egregious Cap and Trade (a.k.a. Crap and Tax) bill that passed the House, but fortunately not the Senate. Malarkey is an inveterate, unabashed, and completely ignorant Global Warming Alarmist. He must be stopped from gaining a Senate seat.

    So even if you are underwhelmed by his nominal Republican opponent, Gabriel Gomez (a former Navy Seal and businessman), VOTE FOR GOMEZ. It’s your patriotic duty.

    /Mr Lynn

  36. @Dirk H –
    Therre is a good deal of documented anecdotal evidence that the Medieval Warm Period was substantially warmer than today. You don’t reed an instrumental record to prove this when wine grapes were widely grown in England at that tome, and can’t be grown there today. There is similar, if more limited evidence, for the Roman/Han Chinese Climate Optimum and the Hittite-Minoan-Mycen3ean period.

    On another subject – Yahoo News has been particularly aggressive in publishing disinformation and scare stories about climate change. Their latest bit of flatulence claims that the Earth is hotter now than it has ever been, and gettihng hotter and hotter,. Of course Yahoo’s management is among der Fuehrer’s favorite crony capitalists. That wouldn’t mean so much but for the fact that Yahoo is carrying der Fuehrer’s lies about global warming to millions of people who read their slop.

    From what I see going on at Yahoo and still going on in the mainstream media, skeptics are still not effectively getting the truth out there. It’s especially important that skeptics find a way to communicate to the lower-income people and young people that are so fond of His Obomanation how der Fuehrer’s tax policies, and most notably also, his energy policies are squeezing them financially and destroying employment opportunities, in short, twice screwing them over – and wasting precious resources that could do a lot towards genuine environmental objectives like cleaning up pollution and providing clean water for people in developing countries.

    Think how many people in Africa might have been provided with clean water with the billions paid to the likes of Mann et al., and flushed down the venture capital toilet of so-called “renewables” – and by the way, let them know how dirty those “renewables” really are. This is the kind of thing that people need to be told.

  37. dbstealey says:
    June 11, 2013 at 5:43 pm
    Open Thread?

    OK, then…

    Iowahawk waxes lyrical on the all-American carbon-belcher

    Honorable mention to: Harrison Ford, Robert Redford, and John Travolta. Liberal hypocrites one and all. Almost forgot Al Gore.

  38. Dyspeptic Curmudgeon says: June 11, 2013 at 3:06 pm

    @willr
    INterestingly, the minority Liberal government introduced an anti-SLAPP bill in the House just last week. Bill 83 Protection of Public Participation Act. The linked article does not say when she was actually served. I wonder if some tree-hugging MPP pushed for the introduction of the Bill, just to provide some help for her.

    Let’s hope it goes through! In the meantime, Esther Wrightman’s MPP wrote a very nice letter:

    http://ontario-wind-resistance.org/2013/06/11/mpp-mcnaughtons-letter-to-attorney-general-re-nextera-v-esther-slapp-suit/

    For those who might be interested, I added my voice to the chorus of support yesterday.

    Of blighters, blightings and big wind bullies

  39. Mike jarosz says:
    June 11, 2013 at 8:18 pm
    dbstealey says:
    June 11, 2013 at 5:43 pm
    Open Thread?

    OK, then…

    Iowahawk waxes lyrical on the all-American carbon-belcher

    Honorable mention to: Harrison Ford, Robert Redford, and John Travolta. Liberal hypocrites one and all. Almost forgot Al Gore.

    In re R Redford USA TODAY had this today

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/06/10/president-obama-climate-change-column/2407783/

    Natural disasters not odd coincidences: Column
    Robert Redford 1:08 p.m. EDT June 11, 2013
    Obama has expressed worry about climate change, but he needs plan to address it.

    He proves his celebutard status by waxing on about how all the bad things in the world are down to CO2, and how Obama absolutely must completely flush the Constitution, although the Bamster’s done a fairly thorough job of that already, to put a stop to the incredible Carbon Menace. What a putz!

  40. stan stendera says:
    June 11, 2013 at 1:36 pm
    —————————————-
    Starting about 1 month ago, I started receiving ‘ANTHONY’ junk emails in my Outlook mailbox on a daily basis. This is probably related to the trouble I was having at Newsvine every time I commented on Colorado Bob’s seeded articles. I would have to do a system restore afterwards. I noticed that the new poster, Jai Mitchell, commented on WUWT about a link to Colorado Bob, in one of his first comments on WUWT. I take it that there is a direct connection. My computer skills are limited. I know I have weak spots and people like this CB are willing to take advantage of that to screw with me. He is a friend of Physicist Retired, also at Newsvine, and felt that I ‘betrayed’ PR with too many tough questions. especially towards the end of last year when I started pushing the question “Why was there no further warming despite the large increase of co2?”. All of a sudden a new blogger ‘One Dirty Rat’ started doing leading questions that Physicist Retired would then answer. They were indirectly directed at me, and so I responded by saying something about his sockpuppet and his attempts to intimidate me by showing that they knew some details about my life. I do not take kindly to threats, nor would I ever consider leaving this conversation, regarding Climate Change, as I feel that I am now doing what I was meant to do. Strange as that may seem.

  41. stan stendera says:
    June 11, 2013 at 1:36 pm

    “…Someone is posting comments on Bishop Hill’s website using his (Anthony’s) name….”

    Stan: Are you referring to the comment under the post ‘Mad Men – the Prequel’ (9 June)?

    .

  42. Rossi, third party reviewers, and the E-Cat HT2

    I mentioned a little while ago I’d post something about the third party review of Rossi’s E-Cat the next an Open Thread rolled around.

    May last fullsize post on the subject was over a year and a half ago, see http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/28/test-of-rossis-1-mw-e-cat-fusion-system-apparently-successful/ to get up to speed.

    The original E-Cat could produce boiling water, but couldn’t run much hotter. Good for space heating and grain drying, both large consumers of lowgrade heat.

    Since then Rossi has come up with a high temperature unit and refinements in a unit he calls the E-Cat HT2. These devices can produce high temperature steam, and that means E-Cats can run power plants.

    The third party review was done by folks who have been involved in studying some of Rossi’s work in the past, and the test ran at Rossi’s R&D area in Italy. This leaves the reviewers too close to Rossi for Anthony’s comfort, so this is not the third party review Anthony was looking for.

    The review is at http://xxx.lanl.gov/ftp/arxiv/papers/1305/1305.3913.pdf

    The reactors are cylinders, 33 cm long and 10 cm in diameter. The key parts of the reaction include nickel, hydrogen, and a catalyst that Rossi has yet to disclose but says it’s inexpensive. The reactors are designed to have too little fuel to go into thermal runaway, so they use resistive heating to get to operating temperature and then that cycles off and on to keep things at the proper temperature.

    There were three runs:

    November 2012: This test was a failure no useful numeric data was collected. However, there was substantial heat production as the steel case shell of the test unit melted. The report has some visible light and infrared images of the device before it melted. The IR camera says the reactor was running at about 800°C

    December 2012: This test ran at a lower temperature and the device stayed intact. Measurements and calculations report the reactor emitted some 1568 watts radiatively and 466 watts by convection. The power input was 360 watts, so all in all, the ratio out::in, the coefficient of performance, was 5.6.

    The net energy produced over the 96 hour run, scaled to the 0.236 kg inner core, was 681 kWh/kg.

    March 2012: This used a newer variant of the reactor, the E-cat HT2 (or Hot Cat version 2). This was run for 116 hours at a cooler temperature and wound up producing net energy 470 kW/kg. This is some three orders of magnitude greater thand other sources of energy, ranging from batteries to natural gas to Anthracite and aluminum.

    The tests were terminated at a predetermined time. Another test to start soon will run for six months.

    There are people skeptical of the recent results, but it’s getting difficult to find where the missing input energy is coming from. The reactors were pre-charged with a small amount of hydrogen so there was no tank of gas; a safety ground wire was removed; the AC power source was monitored for voltage, current and phase variations.

  43. jack morrow says:
    June 11, 2013 at 3:55 pm
    Just read an article about the magnetic N. Pole racing toward Siberia. What’s up?
    Hi Jack
    It would be nice to know, and considering that there is some coincidental correlation to the climate change, you would think that science would put some more effort in finding out.

  44. Re: Ric Werme says:
    June 11, 2013 at 10:17 pm

    Thanks for the e-cat update. Any word on actual delivered commercial sales and expected “in service” dates? A demonstration production plant is badly needed before most people will be convinced. Considering the potential for redefining our energy infrastructure, world attention and effort seem to be lacking. It certainly deserves our attention… valid or not. GK

  45. G. Karst says:
    June 12, 2013 at 6:40 am

    Re: Ric Werme says:
    June 11, 2013 at 10:17 pm

    Thanks for the e-cat update. Any word on actual delivered commercial sales and expected “in service” dates?

    Not much in terms of firm dates. In fact, nothing in terms of firm dates.

    Things are taking a turn to more of a “real” business – Rossi has a new manufacturing partner and he appears to have lost control of running the project. The partner’s name hasn’t been disclosed, and they’ve required Rossi to say a lot less about how things are going.

    A lot of people are dismayed by some of that, but I’m not. Various notes:

    It was obvious to me that Rossi wouldn’t be satisfied with boiling water at atomspheric pressure and would get distracted toward something like the Hot Cat.

    He has a second model of Hot Cat that looks to me is just begging to be bolted on to the side of a boiler with the hot end facing in. And can be replaced with a future HT 3 during replacement for refueling.

    If the Hot Cat works the way it should and appears to in the paper, then there’s no way Rossi could muster the manufacturing demand that will come when commercial units perform as promised. He absolutely needs a big manufacturing company that can deal with that, and knows boilers and power plants. GE or Siemens would be good. Anything smaller and China will wipe them out in a couple years. Manufacturing ramp up will cost hundreds of millions, there’s no way Rossi can (or should) maintain control.

    Manufacturing anything takes much longer than anyone realizes. This is about the time frame I was expecting, the earlier promises of units in Home Depot by the fall a year or two ago had no chance of being met.

    I still expect major regulatory approval delays in the US. Less than the nuke-in-a-home water heater, but I’m expecting the first units may go to countries that don’t drag their heals as much as the DoE will do here. OTOH, the attempts with the first units at least means regulators have some idea about what’s coming and it would be really nice if they’ve been involved.

    At any rate, I think all the major R&D tasks are done or underway, the folks who want to know how it works are left out, but tough noogies. Heck, Rossi doesn’t know how it works. That’s okay, we only figured out aspirin in the 1970s. There are a number of trade secrets and schedules that would be nice to know about, but this isn’t a public works project. There’s probably all sorts of fascinating stuff going on behind the scenes. Count the cars in factory parking lots that leave late in the evening.

    Will it all work? I don’t know. Will there be last minute hangups in manufacturing? Of course, probably dozens, there always are.

    And of course, it could all be a big scam or an astounding case of self-delusion, but that’s getting less likely.

  46. goldminor says:
    June 11, 2013 at 9:58 pm
    ————————————–
    Today is the first day that I have not received a junk email from ‘Anthony’. Whoever that might have been.

    REPLY:
    Well it isn’t me, I don’t spam people. Probably a bot. – Anthony

  47. Kev-in-Uk says:
    June 11, 2013 at 3:32 pm
    Can anyone recommend good factual solar power websites with real/genuine guidance for small solar panel applications.

    Try here:

    http://www.enviroharvest.ca/electric_solar.htm

    What Output can you really expect ?

    Time of year (angle of sun and number of sunlight hours), haze, clouds, rain and snow and of course location all affect the performance of your photovoltaic array. Performance logs taken over a period of years from a location a number of miles from you may not apply exactly to your location, however, they will be a good indication of what you can expect.
    The following measurement is based on how many Watts are actually produced not the number of sunlight hours in a day.

    Based on logs developed over the past three years at our area in Ontario at a Latitude of about 450 North we get an annual average of almost 3 3/4 hours of sunlight per day taking into account all of the points listed in the previous paragraph. To get to the point quickly, expect about ONE Hundred kilowatt hours of power per year from a 100W photovoltaic panel. If your usage is only in summer you can expect about 5 usable hours of sunlight daily in our area. Latitude has less to do with available light than environmental conditions. South of us humidity haze and smog reduce productive hours to just over 3 1/2. To the north of us in the Sudbury area they average just under a four hour annual average.

    One of the few useful/truthful sites.

  48. check this out:

    Obama Quietly Raises ‘Carbon Price’ as Costs to Climate Increase

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-12/tougher-regulations-seen-from-obama-change-in-carbon-cost.html

    quote:
    Buried in a little-noticed rule on microwave ovens is a change in the U.S. government’s accounting for carbon emissions that could have wide-ranging implications for everything from power plants to the Keystone XL pipeline.

    The increase of the so-called social cost of carbon, to $38 a metric ton in 2015 from $23.80, adjusts the calculation the government uses to weigh costs and benefits of proposed regulations. The figure is meant to approximate losses from global warming such as flood damage and diminished crops.

  49. Ooooooooooooooooh noooooooooooooooo! Derrrrrrrrrrrrechoooooooooooooo!

    Hey wait a minute, isn’t that a cold thing?

  50. Heck, Open Thread, here are some laughs brought to you buy the comedic climate models. (The Central England Temperature trend has been heading south).

    UK DROUGHTS PROJECTIONS CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING.

    Journal of Hydrology – 15 August 2007
    Summary
    ….Future projections suggest an increase in mean precipitation in winter and decrease in summer months. Short-term summer drought is projected to increase in most water resource regions except Scotland and Northern Ireland…
    ——–
    Jean-Philippe Vidal et. al. – 11 March 2009
    Abstract
    Multimodel results under the A2 scenario show a dramatic increase in the frequency of short-term extreme drought class for most of the country.
    ——–
    Eleanor J. Burke et. al. – 25 June 2010
    Abstract
    An extreme value analysis of UK drought and projections of change in the future
    ….All drought indices show an overall increase in drought in the future. However, the spread of values is considerable ranging from little change or a slight decrease to a significant increase….

  51. Arnold Schwarzenegger is here in Aus visiting PM Gillard in an attempt to sell the message that we need to tackle climate change by reducing GHG emissions. It’s refreshing to see our leader is using a reliable source of science.

  52. apology upfront: I am totally naive consumer (not a scientist or expert in ANYTHING) of solar energy—and I should not be—we have 15 BP solar panels that are about to be removed (due to recall and potential for FIRE?!) and we are working with One Block off the Grid to install a new system. (Just got through pushing BP from low ball compensation offer to enough to cover removal, new system and roof but that was done without lawyer—just nerve and stupidity?) Found this site today and now I wonder—why are we doing this? We are to pay about $9,000 to a company as “advance” on 20 years of energy. The old system dealt with SRECs…..I think my husband and I are close enough to the last hippie age that we think this is a good idea—seems to RIGHT—but are we actually spending MORE to get LESS? And if it’s true that solar industry is continuing dependence on subsidies, etc. are we adding to the phenomenon by investing again?
    We are in NJ and didn’t even think we had a shot at this green thing until 2006 and the 2/3 tax subsidy from NJ—but our own governor is now accused of lowering value of SRECs.
    I think unless we hire any of you (and I bet you are expensive?!) to counsel us, we may be walking into the woods of a fairy tale…..and the wolf in waiting will be the eventual fall of the industry—that will have our $9,000 electric bill paid in advance! Go ahead……rip me apart and learn us some wisdom before we part with our money! Thank you, seriously, for anything I see as a result of this post. Susan and Richard, Denville, NJ

  53. WillR says:
    June 12, 2013 at 9:55 am

    thanks will – a couple of additional snippetts in there. still struggling on the pump scene!

  54. Susan Akers says:
    June 13, 2013 at 9:34 am

    I hope I interpret/read your post correctly – which seems to suggest that you think we are all anti-environment here or something? Far from it – the ‘eco-friendly’ attitude does not get thrown out just because we (well, some of us) don’t think that catastrophic anthropgenic global warming (CAGW) is a realistic construct – it is a construct, just one made up by the puppet scientists and governments to enagage in further tax extraction!
    Being ‘green’ is good – but you really need to do your maths before committing to large investment. There are many cases of it simply being ‘green’ is a way of you paying more – largely unecessarily, and largely ineffectively (for the environment! – just look at all the energy and rare earths used to make and put up wind turbines!)
    Only trolls and idots ever get slated here as far as I have see!
    regards
    Kev

  55. dbstealey says:
    June 13, 2013 at 2:23 am
    ——————————————
    There was a well written sci-fi from the 50s written by author, John Brunner. The title was “And the Sheep Looked Up”. Brunner had a good sense for reality and how social reality might change over time. The timeline for the beginning of the story was set for the late 1990s if I remember right. The ending of the book correlates with “Lord Monckton on the late, great USA.”. If you like sci-fi this one is worth reading, if you didn’t come across it before.

  56. Hi, Kev in UK – Thanks for responding. I guess I did not articulate very well……the reason I LIKED this site is that it seemed very level-headed people were talking about energy issues from a rationale perspective –no one on the outer skirts of the continuum. We have jumped on the residential solar bandwagon but not because we understand the pros and cons –especially costs of the total enterprise from us to grid to gov’t–very well but because it seemed like a good idea in 2006 with a large state tax subsidy here in NJ. BUT now wondering if it truly makes sense and if we aren’t unintentionally perpetuating something without staying power–at taxpayers’ cost (which includes us of course). I guess my other question is IF one is to re-install a solar system, is it better to own the equipment and get the SREC’s or is it better to do the deal where you pay up front for energy at a fixed rate—and don’t own the equipment allowing someone else to take care of problems that may arise. BUT if that “someone else” goes under in 20 years who ya gonna call?! Thanks, Susan

  57. Susan Akers says:
    June 15, 2013 at 8:46 am

    I have heard of similar ‘free’ solar systems here in the UK, where the houseowner pays/does nothing but recieves allegedly cheaper (offset) electricity. I’m always suspicious of such things as a ‘free’ or even cheap lunch. My main concern is, as you say, the longevity issues (of the product and cheap electricity), and also the legal aspect of what happens if you want to sell your home, etc.
    Not that it perhaps matters to most people (who are naturally ‘selfish’), but I found myself thinking the fact of utility companies extracting even more money from other ordinary householders to subsidise ‘my’ feed in tariff for solar power generation on my house, slightly abhorent. I will be adopting an off-grid system for my place in portugal for partly this reason. One of the best ways to be ‘green’ is to take responsibility for your own actions and make yourself as green as possible (by this, I mean with as low environmental impact as you can make) without relying on others (companies or gov’ts) to do it for you!
    I don’t know if you have seen some of Anthony Watts’ own posts on energy efficiency stuff, but I know he has done some interesting stuff for his own house – and he checks everything thoroughly!
    regards Kev

  58. I am thinking now that if we “re-do” the solar we really need to do independently….but where can one find good info on the storage of energy? Isn’t this the reason that we have solar “on the grid” as the science/technology of solar energy storage has not yet produced a reasonably priced battery for residential use? I just saw a TEDx talk from Floyd, VA on what appeared to be several solar installations off the grid…….powering internet, coffee makers and other modern conveniences!
    THAT is what we should be aiming for…..why do I want to feed the grid what I create on my roof?
    There have been a number of articles recently (WSJ, NYT) on “new” funding for solar projects too and that is concerning…….I don’t understand all the angles of the funding strategies, but it’s still taxpayer subsidies and continuing the trend of linking alternative energy with power companies…..not the path to true energy independence. So glad to have found sites like this and others which slowed our “run” to another system before really thinking through ALL the implications. Will look for Anthony Watts posts…….Thanks, Kev from UK

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