May 2013 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

As many of you are aware, at my blog Climate Observations, I provide monthly, mid-month and preliminary monthly sea surface temperature anomaly updates, using Reynolds OI.v2 SST data.  Sea surface temperature is an important metric for a number of reasons: (1) Seventy percent of the surface of the planet is covered by oceans, seas and lakes; (2) land surface temperatures mimic and exaggerate the variations in sea surface temperatures; and (3) sea surface temperature data strongly suggest the surface of the oceans have warmed naturally.

I rarely cross post my monthly sea surface temperature updates here at WUWT. Occasionally, I’ll provide one (or a mid-month update) when El Niño-Southern (ENSO) conditions change.  Unfortunately, this is expected to be a slow year for ENSO, with ENSO-neutral conditions (not an El Niño or La Niña) forecast for the upcoming season.  If readers find it worthwhile, I’ll include the sea surface temperature updates here more regularly, but I believe most of you simply find them to be information overload.

I will however continue to cross post the model-data comparisons here at WUWT.  The next one should be interesting. KNMI recently updated the sea surface temperature outputs of the CMIP5-archived models and the differences between the models and observations should be even greater than seen in the last update.

Don’t forget to stop by my website and add me to your favorites.

MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for May 2013. It was downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.

0 Map

May 2013 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.222 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

The sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO3.4 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 170E-120E) are a commonly used index for the strength, frequency and duration of El Niño and La Nina events. We keep an eye on the sea surface temperatures there because El Niño and La Niña events are the primary cause of the yearly variations in global sea surface temperatures AND they are the primary cause of the long-term warming of global sea surface temperatures over the past 30 years. See the discussion of the East Pacific versus the Rest-of-the-World that follows.

Monthly NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures cooled about 0.2 deg C (-0.191 deg C) since last month. They’re presently at about -0.197 deg C. They’re well within El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions, meaning they’re not El Niño or La Niña conditions. Also refer to the discussion of the weekly NINO3.4 data near the bottom of the post.

Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies cooled a little (-0.012 deg C) from April to May, with both hemispheres cooling. The ocean basins that warmed were the South Atlantic, North Pacific, and Arctic Oceans. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.222 deg C.

01 Global

(1) Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.012 deg C

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02 NINO3.4

(2) NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

(5S-5N, 170W-120W)

Monthly Change = -0.191 deg C

####################################

THE EAST PACIFIC VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD

The East Pacific and the Rest-Of-The-World (Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific) datasets were first discussed in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, and were discussed a few months later in How Can Things So Obvious Be Overlooked By The Climate Science Community?

They were also discussed in great detail in my recently published book Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The Updated Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing. Also see the blog post Everything You Every Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… for an overview. The book is only US$8.00. Please click here to buy a copy. (Paypal or Credit/Debit Card. You do not need to open a PayPal account.)

In the following two graphs, both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols. I’m considering eliminating the volcano adjustments, because they add very little to the discussion. In fact, some persons use those adjustments as an excuse to disregard the obvious.

The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate a couple of facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat. That is, the East Pacific hasn’t warmed in 31+ years. The East Pacific is not a small region. It represents about 33% of the surface area of the global oceans. The East Pacific linear trend varies very slightly with each monthly update. But it won’t vary significantly between El Niño and La Niña events.

03 East Pac

(3) Volcano-Adjusted East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-90N, 180-80W)

####################################

And second is the volcano-adjusted Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180), which includes the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans. The sea surface temperatures there rise in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events. It also appears as though the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of this dataset may have made another upward shift in response to the 2009/10 El Niño and 2010/11 La Niña events. For those who are interested in the actual trends of the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño events and between the 1997/98 and 2009/10 El Niño events refer to Figure 4 in Does The Sea Surface Temperature Record Support The Hypothesis Of Anthropogenic Global Warming? I further described (at an introductory level) the ENSO-related processes that cause these upward steps in the post ENSO Indices Do Not Represent The Process Of ENSO Or Its Impact On Global Temperature. And as noted above, it is discussed in detail in my recently published book Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

04 ROW

(4) Volcano-Adjusted Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The Rest of the World (Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific)

(90S-90N, 80W-180)

####################################

The periods used for the average Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the significant El Niño events of 1982/83, 1986/87/88, 1997/98, and 2009/10 are determined as follows. Using the original NOAA Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the official months of those El Niño events, I shifted (lagged) those El Niño periods by six months to accommodate the lag between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and the response of the Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, then deleted the Rest-Of-The-World data that corresponds to those significant El Niño events. I then averaged the Rest-Of-The-World SST anomalies between those El Niño-related gaps.

The “Nov 2010 to Present” average varies with each update. As noted in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, it will be interesting to see where that Sea Surface Temperature anomaly average settles out, if it does, before the next significant El Niño drives them higher.

Of course, something could shift. Will the upward ratcheting continue when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) decides to turn around and start its decline? The upward steps would not continue in the North Atlantic, but would the AMO impact the upward steps in other portions of the globe? For more information about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, refer to the post An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO — Part 2.

The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have decreased slightly since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. As discussed in my book, anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

STANDARD NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

Other than the East Pacific and Rest-of-the-World data shown immediately above, the MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 sea surface temperature anomaly data from November 1981 to May 2013, as it is presented by the NOAA NOMADS website linked at the end of the post. NOAA uses the base years of 1971-2000 for this dataset. I’ve added the 13-month running-average filter to smooth out the seasonal variations.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UPDATES

05 No Hem

(5) Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.009 deg C

####################################

06 So Hem

(6) Southern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.015 deg C

####################################

07 No Atl

(7) North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 70N, 80W to 0)

Monthly Change = -0.090 deg C

####################################

08 So Atl

(8) South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)

Monthly Change = +0.171 deg C

Note: I discussed the (now apparently temporary) upward shift in the South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. Prior to that shift, the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies had been relatively flat for about two decades. It now looks as though the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies have dropped below the level they were at before that surge.

####################################

09 Pac

(9) Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 65N, 120E to 80W)

Monthly Change = -0.045 Deg C

####################################

10 No Pac

(10) North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 65N, 100E to 90W)

Monthly Change = +0.045 Deg C

####################################

11 So Pac

(11) South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 120E to 70W)

Monthly Change = -0.096 deg C

####################################

12 Indian

(12) Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 30N, 20E to 120E)

Monthly Change = -0.065 deg C

####################################

13 Arctic

(13) Arctic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(65N to 90N)

Monthly Change = +0.017 deg C

####################################

14 Southern

(14) Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-60S)

Monthly Change = -0.031 deg C

####################################

WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

The NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies based on the week centered on June 5, 2013 are below zero but well above La Niña condition, which are defined by NOAA as being cooler than -0.5 deg C. They are presently at -0.11 deg C.

15 Weekly NINO3.4

(15) Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

Global sea surface temperature anomalies cooled a chunk over the past few weeks. They are at +0.151 deg C.

16 Weekly Global

(16) Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT HOW AND WHY THE GLOBAL OCEANS INDICATE THEY’VE WARMED NATURALLY?

Why should you be interested? The hypothesis of manmade global warming depends on manmade greenhouse gases being the cause of the recent warming. But the sea surface temperature record indicates El Niño and La Niña events are responsible for the warming of global sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 31 years, not manmade greenhouse gases. Scroll back up to the discussion of the East Pacific versus the Rest of the World. I’ve searched sea surface temperature records for more than 4 years, and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal. That is, the warming of the global oceans has been caused by Mother Nature, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

I’ve recently published my e-book (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña. It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 30 years. Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well. The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet. It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases. None at all.

Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The Updated Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.

Please buy a copy. (Paypal or Credit/Debit Card). You do not need to have a PayPal account. Simply scroll down to the purchase option Simply scroll down to the “Don’t Have a PayPal Account” purchase option. It’s only US$8.00.

SOURCES

The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly data used in this post is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:

http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

or:

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in Sea Surface Temperature, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

27 Responses to May 2013 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

  1. OldWeirdHarold says:

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen that much white on the SST anomaly map. It’s remarkably unremarkable.

  2. johndo says:

    But is the “Cold tongue” region (about the equator from 80W to 120W) getting distinctly colder as a precursor to another La Nina?

  3. jai mitchell says:

    I think you should include data prior to the 1982 massive el nino if you want to decide that the enso is cooling.

    The 20 years prior to 1982 show significantly colder temperatures than those you show, including them would produce significant warming.

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

  4. rogerknights says:

    Any idea why the Black & Caspian Seas are so hot?

  5. Bob Tisdale says:

    jai mitchell says: “I think you should include data prior to the 1982 massive el nino if you want to decide that the enso is cooling.”

    This dataset starts in November 1981. And I don’t believe I said anywhere in the post that ENSO was cooling.

  6. Bob Tisdale says:

    rogerknights says: “Any idea why the Black & Caspian Seas are so hot?”

    Good catch. Not too surprisingly I had a similar question from Keitho on the cross post:
    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/06/10/may-2013-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/#comment-11701

    It appears to be associated with the warm weather pattern in the region. Here’s the RSS TLT map for May 2013:
    http://oi42.tinypic.com/mw2pon.jpg

    Espen then wrote on that thread:

    Keitho, here’s a detailed SST anomaly map for the Mediterranean sea (note that the time series charts don’t seem to get updated, but the map does get updated daily):
    http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs/B4G_indicators/SST_anomaly.htm

    The cold western and warm eastern Mediterranean are due to long lived weather patterns – see e.g. Weatherbell’s anomaly for 2013 so far: http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.png

  7. Theo Goodwin says:

    I always enjoy your posts. They contain more of nature than any other posts on climate. Some day all climate scientists will embrace your account of ENSO and similar phenomena.

  8. Greg Goodman says:

    “I’m considering eliminating the volcano adjustments, because they add very little to the discussion. In fact, some persons use those adjustments as an excuse to disregard the obvious.”

    Another good reason is that the volcano adjustments are plain wrong:
    http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=286
    http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=278

  9. thelastdemocrat says:

    In the first picture, monthly sst anomaly, illustrated, how can the bering strait fail to reflect relatively colder values? that does not jibe with this data set illustration…
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/global_anomaly_oper0.png

  10. Greg Goodman says:

    Your breakdown is interesting. Just eye-balling all those graphs I’d say SH has been cooling since 1998 and NH since 2005.
    Also inspires me to have a closer look at Southern Ocean. There is a clear repetitive pattern there with 7 peaks marking six internals between 1983 and 2010: 27.6=4.50 years

    This appears to be distinct from the 4.43 I’ve been finding in lot of equatorial data and may be a manifestation of Scafetta’s 9.1 +/-0.1 years.

  11. Greg Goodman says:

    Bob, in line with your hypothesis of ENSO as the “cause” of recent warming a quiet, more neutral pattern is what would accompany a cooling period. The general downward drift in NINO3.4 SST since 1980 puts it in more neutral territory recently.

    There is a similar drift in (inverted) NPI . Comparisons to a similar downward drift from 1920-1940 that preceded a more marked drop and the onset of the 1945-75 global cooling are obvious.

    Does your hypothesis match a more neutral ENSO pattern during that cooling ?

    I still think all this begs the question of what is driving ENSO: mechanism rather than “cause” IMO.

  12. gymnosperm says:

    ENSO neutral? Looks like ENSO aborted to me. Where do you think all that cold water is coming from off Peru and extending westward across the tropical Pacific? Oceanic Rossby waves? Not me. It is clearly emerging south of the equator and not benefitting from the PDO strengthened northern hemisphere trade winds. The waves change sign when they reflect off the coasts. Either they come in upwelling and leave down welling, or the reverse. Either way their effect is largely cancelled near the coasts where ENSO begins.

    That hot spot in the northern Pacific is also very interesting. Try comparing that to the mean position of the hot anomaly in NOAA’s 12000m animation over the last 6 months. Cooling and descending air from the upper troposphere maybe stratosphere=high pressure=no clouds=UV into the ocean.

  13. Greg Goodman says:

    “Not me. It is clearly emerging south of the equator”

    Indeed. As do all these “Nino” events. They originate off the coast of Peru, not Ecuador. The enter the equatorial region later by virtue of the Coriolis rotation of the persistent ocean currents.

    I think much of explanation of these phenomena as _originating_ in trade winds is spurious. There is a reinforcing +ve feedback from TW but there is a lot of tail wagging the dog going on here in mainstream climatology.

    “The waves change sign when they reflect off the coasts. Either they come in upwelling and leave down welling, or the reverse. ”

    This is indeed what the deep ocean wave does and it heads back out. This is not to be confused with the surface temperature “anomaly” that drifts up the coast of the currents of the gyre.

    Neither is the speed or rotation of the gyre necessarily related to the frequency of the wave. Though, due to the positive feedback, there may be some resonant linkage.

  14. Greg Goodman says:

    “That hot spot in the northern Pacific is also very interesting. ”

    Yes that is an interesting area. It is a kind of focal point of reflection of the north american coastline (Canada+Alaksa). This region seems to the focus of both positive and negative extremes in temp anomalies. I similar though much smaller area can be seen in the N. Atlantic off Fungy Bay. Since Fungy is also similarly an anti-node for monthly tidal extremes this re-enforces the idea that all these periodic swings are tidal in origin.

    Looking at the anomaly map that Bob posted, you can see a hot band stretching from Fungy Bay area trough Iceland and beyond. Then a parallel cool band followed by another hot band between S. America and north west Africa.

    That looks like an ocean wide tidal oscillation to me.

  15. Greg Goodman says:


    The animation in Bob’s video shows those regions are fairly static centres of global patterns.

    PDO is inverted to tie in with ENSO, so the basi-wide oscillation is recognised in principal but just not acknowledged as being tidal.

    Fungy seems in sync with central north Pacific hot/cold spot over the duration of the animation but I suspect there are different internal tidal resonances in each basin on a longer timescale.

  16. Greg Goodman says:

    Sorry that link was supposed to jump straight to 43 minute mark for the animation but it looks like WP screwed it up for me.

  17. phlogiston says:

    The BOM equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly map has been showing a large cold anomaly in the east for a long time – over a year.

    I have an issue with Nina region anomalies – the baseline reference period for the “anomaly” is something like 1970-2000. This is a period dominated by el Nino events. Does this not make neutrality look like La Nina, when in reality it might not be so much La Nina as just “not-el-Nino”.

    Thus would it be possible somehow to create a base period based on neutral periods, excluding el Nino and La Nina extremes?

  18. Bob Tisdale says:

    thelastdemocrat says: “In the first picture, monthly sst anomaly, illustrated, how can the bering strait fail to reflect relatively colder values? that does not jibe with this data set illustration…
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/global_anomaly_oper0.png

    A map of the average SST anomalies for the month of May should be somewhat different than a daily map for June 10th. Not only has time progressed but the daily maps will pick up weather patterns (noise) that are averaged out with the monthly maps.

    Regards

  19. Greg Goodman says:

    I just has a quick look at the power spectrum of Southern Ocean in ERSSTv3 (1973 onwards. There are two close peaks with a mean frequency of 4.48 years. The separation of the two indicated modulation by ~54 year signal. Also a strong peak at 19.5 years.

    while these could be significant I am cautious about data in this area with often sparse coverage in surface measurements.

  20. Bob Tisdale says:

    Greg Goodman says: “Bob, in line with your hypothesis of ENSO as the “cause” of recent warming a quiet, more neutral pattern is what would accompany a cooling period. The general downward drift in NINO3.4 SST since 1980 puts it in more neutral territory recently.”

    The switch to more ENSO neutral (actually La Niña conditions) shows up very well in the smoothed HADISST NINO3.4 data:
    http://oi43.tinypic.com/4lrmns.jpg

    Greg Goodman says: “Comparisons to a similar downward drift from 1920-1940 that preceded a more marked drop and the onset of the 1945-75 global cooling are obvious.
    “Does your hypothesis match a more neutral ENSO pattern during that cooling ?”

    Between the early 1940s and the late 1970s there were a number of factors. First is the AMO. Second, is the Pacific Climate Shift which raised East Pacific sea surface temperatures about 0.2 deg C in 1976. Third, there weren’t any El Niños strong enough to cause a noticeable shift in temperatures between the 1939-42 El Niño and the 1986/87/88 El Nino.

    Using HADSST3 data for the East Indian-West Pacific (90S-90N, 80E-180), there appear to have been upward shifts in response to the 1918/19/20 and 1939-42 El Niños. See here:
    http://i41.tinypic.com/oggf0x.jpg

    Here:
    http://i43.tinypic.com/6zairs.jpg

    Here:
    http://i42.tinypic.com/ao96j5.jpg

    And here:
    http://i43.tinypic.com/nd8uah.jpg

    Those graphs are from chapter 8.12 of “Who Turned on the Heat?”.

  21. Bob Tisdale says:

    gymnosperm says: “ENSO neutral? Looks like ENSO aborted to me. Where do you think all that cold water is coming from off Peru and extending westward across the tropical Pacific? Oceanic Rossby waves?”

    It should be due in part to the upwelling Kelvin wave that traversed the equator in the Pacific a few months ago:
    http://i44.tinypic.com/2r7sto3.jpg
    That’s page 16 from the NOAA weekly ENSO update:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

  22. Greg Goodman says:

    ” Third, there weren’t any El Niños strong enough to cause a noticeable shift in temperatures between the 1939-42 El Niño and the 1986/87/88 El Nino.”
    So if noticeable ENSO swings cause warming , lack of them will cause relaxation back to a cooler state. What we call “normal in all that is a case of arbitrary definition, but I’d say that backs up you basic idea.

    “It should be due in part to the upwelling Kelvin wave that traversed the equator in the Pacific a few months ago:”

    Well, that may be the offical NOAA line but I don’t buy it. I’d say the Kelvin waves are superimposed on a much longer upwelling of cooler water that is unrelated to the Kelvin waves.

    You could easily add another K wave behind the one’s marked. If we take the hot-spots at 115W we see peaks in mid march ’13 , mid nov ’12 and mid july ’12. If the graph was longer there’d be more I’m sure. These are +/-0.5K generally maybe +/-1K at 115W. Nice even spacing, interesting.

    Now the “upwelling” component peaks in mid july and has troughed in mid jan , so it’s either some thing else that is just short of a year or it’s a residual from the annual “average climatology” that is a bit weaker this year than the mean. (NB SH seasons so warm july = weaker than average).

    We can not explain the annual length shift as being due to K waves since july wave amplifies hot anom, nov wave amplifies colder, jan wave goes from hot to cold.

    These are two independant phenomena super imposted.

  23. johnmarshall says:

    Both Black and Caspian seas are shallow so can heat up quickly might be the answer to that anomaly.

  24. beng says:

    I understand your May map is the averaged monthly anomaly, but the current real-time map looks much cooler:
    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/psu_sst_anom.gif

  25. Dr. Lurtz says:

    Several interesting items are occurring at the same time:
    1) The Sun’s output is at virtually zero Sunspot levels [10.7 cm Flux down to 90].
    2) The Earth’s tilt places the Sun perpendicular to the Oceans at ~+20 degrees North.
    3) The origin position of the Hadley Cells have moved ~+10 degrees North.
    4) The Southern Pacific Ocean is releasing heat rapidly as indicated by the ~+1 million sq. kilometer Antarctica ice anomaly.
    5) Some of the Northern Pacific Ocean warm anomaly is due to a measurement error. The temperature is inferred from sea level height [satellite radar]. The height is being augmented by Pacific Ocean winds and currents creating a bulge. This bulge is being interpreted as a temperature increase where none exits.

    Results:
    1) Less heat from the Sun, faster Ocean cooling.
    2) Dramatic reduction in heat input due to the Earth’s tilt in the Northern Pacific [due to 1) ].
    3) Hadley Cells and trade winds have moved north. With less solar input, Trade winds and Ocean currents are being reduced.
    4) If the Sun continues being ‘Quiet’, the Antarctic Ice will set massive new levels, beyond the 2008 peak.
    5) The Northern Pacific Ocean warm anomaly [gyre] will dramatically decrease due to 1).

    On the Atlantic side, the Gulf stream is slowing simultaneous with less energy. The Northern Atlantic is giving up its heat. Good Luck England and Europe this coming Winter!

    The Gulf of Mexico and the west coast of Africa are cooling greatly reducing the chance of Hurricanes due to less Solar energy input. The Trade Winds have decreased.

    We are still near the Peak of stored Solar energy [1650 until now]. The reduced Solar output has started the cooling cycle. Watch the Ocean Current and Trade Winds to get an indication of how fast the cooling is proceeding.

    Caveat: If the Sun’s output increases, the Planet will go neutral or warm. I don’t expect the output to increase, we are in the 360 year [2x180 year] Solar cycle sawtooth on the down side.

  26. Bob Tisdale says:

    beng says: “I understand your May map is the averaged monthly anomaly, but the current real-time map looks much cooler:
    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/psu_sst_anom.gif

    beng, Plymouth.edu uses a temperature scaling similar to Unisys, where the blues extend into positive anomalies, making it the overall map appear cooler. I actually like that type of temperature scaling because it seems to make both positive and negative anomalies stand out more, but you have to keep in mind that light blues indicate positive anomalies.

    Regards

  27. beng says:

    Thanks, Bob, I understand there’s differences in the color coding, which makes it difficult to compare. The two maps are actually pretty similar, except the big swath of cooler water currently across the southern N Atlantic from NA to Europe.

Comments are closed.