Nenana Ice Classic sets new record for latest ice-out, and the record is still growing 

UPDATE: Breakup has occurred! See below, for my timelapse video

Here is the webcam closeup – when it was still standing as of 14:18 AKDT:

nenana_new_record

Alaska Dispatch confirms what we already knew in this thread on WUWT:

Like a striped testament to one of the coldest winters to hit Alaska in 100 years, a black-and-white tripod remains upright, atop stubborn Tanana River ice in Nenana.  At 12:42 (ADT) Monday afternoon, the still-frozen waters allowed Nenana Ice Classic set a new record for the latest the ice has gone out in the 97 years since railroad workers started keeping track.

If you look on the Nenana Ice Classic website, you might think the record was broken an hour earlier, but the ice-out times listed there are in Alaska Standard Time. So the old record, listed as 11:41 a.m. (AST) is actually 12:41 p.m. Alaska Daylight Time (ADT).

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130520/97-year-old-nenana-ice-classic-sets-record-latest-breakup-river-1

Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2008,

Wall Street Journal – March 7, 2008
Climate Watchers Place Own Big Bet On Alaska’s Thaw

The Ice Classic has given them a rare, reliable climate history that has documented to the minute the onset of the annual thaw as it shifted across 91 years. By this measure, spring comes to central Alaska 10 days earlier than in 1960, said geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks — and that trend is accelerating. “The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century,” Dr. Jeffries said.

The local ice lottery is further evidence of a long warming trend affecting lakes and rivers throughout the Northern Hemisphere, reported by University of Wisconsin researchers who analyzed newspaper archives, transport ledgers and religious records dating back to the 16th century……….

I wonder what he says now?

UPDATE: 4:43 PM Pacific time (15:43 AKDT), the tripod apepars to have flipped over and sunk as the breakup is now underway. I won’t be able to show this until a couple hours from now when I get home and pull up the series of time lapse captures from my PC running there. Look for a Movie to be uploaded tonight or tomorrow – Anthony

UPDATE2: Timelapse video is now uploaded, see  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/20/timelapse-video-of-nenana-ice-classic-breakup-2013/

Refresh to see the latest.

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96 Responses to Nenana Ice Classic sets new record for latest ice-out, and the record is still growing 

  1. NZ Willy says:

    We can now call it the Neener-Neener Ice Classic! :-)

  2. TomR,Worc,MA says:

    I am sure the esteemed professor would say something like ……… ” This is just weather, not climate ……… nothing to see here ….. move along!”

  3. jeez says:

    If it had been the earliest ever, it would be all over Climate Progress, Daily Kos, etc.

    Now….crickets.

  4. Anthony Watts says:

    @jeez No, crickets make noise, but there’s not a sound. I note that roaches are silent.

  5. jb frodsham says:

    Gee, I have been watching this all night, the most exciting thing I ever saw except watching paint dry. If it would have gone sooner the warmists would have said it is climate, now of course they will say it is weather.

  6. Lawrence Jenkins says:

    Can I say that the great John Daley would have cherished this moment. It was he who started using this popular lottery proxy on his website called ‘still Waiting For the Greenhouse’ back in the late 90′s . he was a stubborn man who stuck by his beliefs when all the signals showed otherwise .

    He always, whilst blogging referred to this ‘Ice Classic’ as a true accepted measurement of global temperature. He really does deserve far more credit than he seems to get.

    God bless you John, you’ve just won the lottery.

  7. Ben Wilson says:

    I’m sure the brilliant professor would say that the ice on the river persisting longer is further unequivocal proof agreed upon by 97% of climate scientists who know jack that global warming is progressing even faster than anybody had imagined, and that the only way to keep global warming from causing the Nanana River from being frozen all year long is to provide more money for research. . . . . . .

  8. A four-legged tripod
    The old record’s been trod
    “Extreme warming”? How odd
    The trend? Flatter than sod

    We’re spending a huge wad
    On work that is slipshod
    The temps get an up-mod
    To serve the new Left’s god

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  9. I remember, one of my first comments here on WUWT, years ago, was that in 12th century England predicting weather was a crime punishable by death.

    It’s always funny to watch, how they change forecasts on Yahoo weather site every few hours, reflecting the latest whim of that darn weather, after the fact.

    Whatever is the unknown contribution of humanity to the so called “climate,” one thing is eminently obvious: natural variations of weather make it statistically negligible.

    But money talks, and mostly what money says are lies, in modern science as well as in any other human activity.

    To say that I am sick and tired of human small-mindedness, cowardice, and avarice, would be a huge understatement. 21st century, is it? Or 12th? Or worse than 12th?

    My wife likes to jibe: “Back in the USSR, KGB told us that people in the West are different. Boy, they duped us again!”

  10. Ahahahah! Nice one Ben!

  11. Another case of: The hotter it goes, the colder it gets!
    I wonder if Al(armist) Gore has been swimming over there…
    It seems the «Gore effect»…

  12. Eric Worrall says:

    I don’t know if I’d be quite as eager as some of the people in the picture, to park my expensive SUV directly under the cables, at this point in the competition…

  13. jorgekafkazar says:

    I was strangely thrilled to see by the dawn’s early light, that the unspangled banner still waved atop the tetrapod. Now, a new record, and there shall be weeping and the gnashing of teeth in the halls of the scientific-technological elite. Oh, joy!

  14. TomR,Worc,MA says:

    I do believe I have a plan to win next year’s grand prize.

    Does anyone have a couple of cases of dynamite and some blasting caps I can “borrow”?

  15. Lawrence Jenkins says:

    Sorry : John Daly, John l Daly.

  16. Colorado Wellington says:

    I am sorry but I believe that Stanford phenologists Dr. Sagarin and Dr. Micheli beat Dr. Jeffries by 7 years:

    Raphael Sagarin
    Fiorenza Micheli
    Climate Change in Nontraditional Data Sets
    Science, sciencemag.org, volume 294, 26 OCT 2001

    A celebrated betting pool in Alaska is providing researchers with a remarkably accurate record of global climate change, according to a new study in the journal Science. And the results show that spring is coming earlier and earlier.

    The authors analyzed the entire Ice Classic record and discovered that, on average, the Tanana River breakup occurs 5.5 days sooner than it did back in 1917. The earliest breakup on record took place on April 20, 1998; the latest on May 20, 1964.

    “These results show that springtime is coming earlier,” notes Sagarin. “This trend also matches up pretty well with historic temperature data from Nenana and Fairbanks.”

    He says that other phenological records from around the world documenting the springtime appearance of birds and new plant growth also reveal that spring is coming sooner — an indication that climate change is a reality that is affecting natural systems on Earth.

    “This is nontraditional scientific knowledge, but simple observations are very important. For example, river ice breakup has direct economic consequences, because people who live along the Tanana rely on waterborne commerce,” Sagarin says.

    “Phenology was pooh-poohed until recently, but now it’s recognized as important data, because climate change is a relatively recent phenomenon that has caught scientists by surprise,” he adds.

    Sagarin says he might use his linear regression analysis to predict when the breakup will occur next spring.

    http://news.stanford.edu/news/2001/october31/alaskabet-1031.html

    Also, Sagarin and Micheli talked it up as a “remarkably accurate record of global climate change” while Dr. Jeffries went with a rather pedestrian “pretty good proxy”.

  17. GlynnMhor says:

    Meanwhile in Newfoundland, half a metre of snow marks the Victoria Day long weekend:

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=513225175391185&set=a.251092048271167.56433.251089648271407&type=1&theater

  18. Garacka says:

    21 May 2013 at 00:00:01 AKDT.

  19. Paul Vaughan says:

    cold on the opposite side of the continent too…
    more than 50cm of snow on May 24, 2013
    =
    “Fifty four centimetres of snow fell in Gander over a 20-hour period from Saturday to Sunday, says Environment Canada, shattering the town’s previous record of 29 centimetres for the entire month of May, recorded in 1945.

    As unbelievable as more than half a metre of spring snow sounds, an Environment Canada meteorologist suspects the total was actually higher.

    Snowfall over the weekend could have actually been as high as 66 centimetres, including the snow that had already melted before the storm hit, meteorologist Wanda Rideout told the Canadian Press.
    [...]
    If u can mow lawn and snowblow driveway on same weekend….you might be a Newfoundlander.
    [...]
    It snowed in Calgary in July in the 1950′s. It snowed in Edmonton in August in early 90′s.
    [...]
    Cooling is Warming. Freedom is Regulation. Ignorance is Science.
    [...]
    Better [...] come up with another “scientific fact” to keep them donations rolling in.”

    =
    http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/freak-snowstorm-hits-newfoundland-over-holiday-weekend-1.1289138
    WUWT readers will love the comments.

  20. petermue says:

    Ice has broken up!

    AKDT 15:40

  21. Mike Ozanne says:

    Thar she blows…

  22. starzmom says:

    It just broke! Tower carried down stream, didn’t fall over.

  23. JJ says:

    The tetrapod is on the move …

  24. Jeff C says:

    Did it just disappear? 4:43 PM Pacific time.

  25. Luther Wu says:

    Gone!!

  26. David Chappell says:

    Poof, there it was gone…

  27. Warren in New Zealand says:

    It’s gone! 15.44.45?

  28. David Chappell says:

    Oh dear, what can we do to keep ourselves amused now….

  29. TerryMN says:

    Holy crap, that happened in a hurry!

  30. petermue says:

    Just refreshed the cam at 15:39 two times… at the third time it was moving.
    Must have been somewhen at the beginning of 15:40

  31. Jenn Oates says:

    Got home from work, pulled out the iPad, and voila! It’s done.

    Let’s hear it for global warming!

  32. John from Holt says:

    Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.

  33. jb frodsham says:

    Blast I missed it as I was in the shower and getting my son ready for school. :-(

  34. BruceA says:

    Think you Ice Classic “record” folks are jumping the gun a bit. You must be under the impression that the breakup time is recorded when the tower trips the timer. Nope. The real ice breakup time won’t be known until after the required quality control, homogenization, time series adjustments, model adjustments, reanalysis, retrospective prediction, etc., steps have been applied with the appropriate number of grant funding cycles. Guessing that after the proper statistical analysis as been applied that it will be worse than we thought.

  35. TerryMN says:

    John from Holt says:
    May 20, 2013 at 4:52 pm
    Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.

    Please see previous thread for at least a dozen explanations of why you’re wrong.

  36. petermue says:

    BruceA says:

    … still waiting for the dog that finally ate the data? /sarc

  37. Eric Worrall says:

    Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.

    Not so. The reason for leap years is to correct the mismatch between the true length of the year and the day count – the Earth does not orbit the sun in an exact number of days.

    Its the year before the leap year which is wrong – the leap year just adjusts it back to what it should be.

  38. JerkyDave says:

    You are probably right, BruceA. When all is said and all the computations are made, it will have been the earliest breakup on record. Probably some time last January.

  39. BruceA”
    “Think you Ice Classic “record” folks are jumping the gun a bit. “…
    Yep. We should take another lottery to determine what day in March it really broke up. My money’s on March 18th.

  40. Lawrence Jenkins says:
    May 20, 2013 at 3:46 pm

    Sorry, in his critique of “Climate Change in Non-traditional Data Sets”,
    by Sagarin R., & Micheli, F., Science v.294, p.811, 26 Oct 2001 [1],

    http://www.john-daly.com/nenana.htm,

    John Daly showed how weak this paper of Sagarin & Micheli was. In my presentation before the Joint Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission I assessed this paper of Sagarin & Micheli as an example of foolish statistics used in climatology.

  41. joe says:

    When it goes it goes fast

  42. Who won, and where is the movie (video)?

  43. Ric Werme says:

    We should watch the river ice to see if it makes an ice dam. Those bring some quick flooding and are not to be trifled with!

    And after that, back to watching the ENSO meter, which appears to have gotten out of its 0.0 rut (one of three weeks should have been +0.1). Monday’s value for the last week was -0.3.

  44. J. Gary Fox says:

    When our Met Office computers accessed the original pixels and we applied proper statistical control and ran it through our new Super Computers that are capable of one billion calculations per second, the correct adjusted Universal time was April 5, 2013 at precisely 00:09.24 (accuracy 0.2 seconds).

  45. Janice Moore says:

    LOL — The Wonderland Science Club “scientists” trying to maintain their course (and dignity) while slipping on the inconvenient reality of ice:

  46. Janice Moore says:

    @ Glynnmohr [I spell my last name wrong, don't I -- ;)] Thanks for sharing photo of climate realists reveling in the Enviro-tyranny check called REALITY.

  47. TerryMN says:

    Exactly 3 hours past the previous record – update from the Alaska Dispatch that Anhony linked in the head post:

    A tripod used in the Nenana Ice Classic fell off the Tanana River ice at 3:41 p.m. on Monday, May 20. But because of daylight savings, the actual time the ice went out is 2:41 p.m., according to Ice Classic organizers.

  48. JJ says:

    John from Holt says:

    Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.

    No. The Nenana record is based on the Gregorian calendar.

    Not that it matters. To eliminate the effect of drift and reset between the Gregorian calendar and the solar cycle, one would measure onset of breakup starting at the vernal equinox. By that measure, the record was broken at 8:33 AKST this morning. The rest was gravy. The record is solidly broken. Pun!

    JJ

  49. Janice Moore says:

    Bond. James Bond. (007 at 5:23PM) — LAUGH — OUT — LOUD. “Waaake up!” His sign is yelling this because his audience fell asleep from boredom a long time ago. WE are “stuck”!???? (head shake) Just who is stuck on mindlessly repeating meaningless speculation, eh Sheldon?

    His ability to keep a straight face is amazing — must have been a used car salesman before this gig.

    I kept waiting for the “aaand, now, live from New York, iiiit’s Saturday Night Live!”

    Thanks for sharing. [:)]

  50. dbstealey says:

    Well, that was fun. Really. Might seem boring to some, but I enjoyed the drama. And of course, setting a new record was very satisfying.

  51. Justthinkin says:

    TerryMN says:

    May 20, 2013 at 4:54 pm

    John from Holt says:
    May 20, 2013 at 4:52 pm
    “Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.”

    Please see previous thread for at least a dozen explanations of why you’re wrong.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    So John. Now you guys are using a leap year(which btw makes up for the other three being short) as an excuse? Heh. It actually means the record was set 18 hours AGO. Or are you guys massaging the solar/yearly time numbers now?

  52. From KYUU.com:
    This year’s jackpot is $318,500, but not everybody stood an equal chance to win. While Forness says 1,800 guesses in the Classic extended through May and June, at least a dozen were made for September through December — with four predicting the tripod’s fall in August.

    Forness says a husband and wife from Kenai bought this year’s single winning ticket.

  53. rOLAND lEbEL says:

    Broll
    I’m sure somebody must have put a boom downstream to hold every upstream. That’s how the skeptics operate! Even a midget minded moron can assess to that.

  54. Janice Moore says:

    Just thinkin’ (about that John guy), good point JT’in and, LOL, — SO WHAT IF IT HAD BEEN one day short? Would that indicate the approximately 4% of the .04% of global CO2 emitted by humans could cause ANY significant change in global climate, John?

  55. John from Holt says:
    May 20, 2013 at 4:52 pm

    “Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.”

    John, the relevant data are the time of the Perihelion and the time of the Vernal Equinox:

    Perihelion:
    January 2, 1964: 20 44 UT
    January 2, 2013: 04 37 UT

    Vernal Equinox
    March 20, 1964: 14 10 UT
    March 20, 2013: 11 02 UT

    I have taken these data from two popular websites (.http://ns1763.ca/equinox/vern1788-2211.html and http://cococubed.asu.edu/data/perihelion_earth_1900-2100.dat).

  56. RACookPE1978 says:

    If some two people buy two tickets that straddle the exact time, who wins?

    The closest prediction to the actual minute & second?
    The earlier prediction? (“Ice will last at least this long” is a correct prediction)
    The later prediction? (“Ice will break up before this time” is a correct prediction)

  57. rOLAND lEbEL says:

    Broll
    Here is my moderation.
    I’m sure somebody must have put a boom downstrean to hold the ice upstream. This will likely be an explanation by the warmists.

  58. Colorado Wellington says:

    Gerhard Kramm says:
    May 20, 2013 at 5:05 pm

    John Daly showed how weak this paper of Sagarin & Micheli was. In my presentation before the Joint Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission I assessed this paper of Sagarin & Micheli as an example of foolish statistics used in climatology.

    Gerhard, are you pooh-poohing the phenologists again? These guys can’t get a break. So maybe their statistics was foolish but their heart was in the right place and their media talking points were just as good as Marcott et al. Can’t they get at least a partial credit?

  59. Steve from Rockwood says:

    @crickets make noise. That was a great one liner. I look forward to a post this summer comparing the minimum Arctic ice extent to this break-up. Should be interesting closure. Now if the Chinese would only fling some funds my way (pending…) I could fing some your way. Always a joy – this site.

  60. TerryMN says:

    RACook….If some two people buy two tickets that straddle the exact time, who wins?

    The closest prediction to the actual minute & second?
    The earlier prediction? (“Ice will last at least this long” is a correct prediction)
    The later prediction? (“Ice will break up before this time” is a correct prediction)

    My understanding, from the AK Dispatch link in the head post, is that they’d split the winnings.

  61. thelastdemocrat says:

    Alexander Feht says: “It’s always funny to watch, how they change forecasts on Yahoo weather site every few hours, reflecting the latest whim of that darn weather, after the fact. Whatever is the unknown contribution of humanity to the so called “climate,” one thing is eminently obvious: natural variations of weather make it statistically negligible.”

    Again, the Bible is accurate: Ecclesiastes 11:5
    “As you do not know the path of the wind,
    or know how life enters the body being formed in a mother’s womb,
    so you cannot understand the work of God,
    the Maker of all things.”

  62. Janice Moore says:

    rOLAND lEbEL,

    Who is Broll?

  63. Greg Goodman says:

    Vernal Equinox
    March 20, 1964: 14 10 UT
    March 20, 2013: 11 02 UT

    Since last year was a leap year that’s just 6h adjustment needed, Precession of the equinox works that other direction and has drifted back almost a day since the record started.

    From the point of view of it as a proxy that makes it equal with 1964. For the betting it’s wall time that counts.

    Now get ready to explain how it’s during cooling periods that there are more tornadoes. That’s tomorrow’s game.

  64. philjourdan says:

    It was fun while it lasted! In the internet age, we can now join in with the locals!

  65. Janice Moore says:

    Amen, Last Democrat (at 6:11PM).

    That’s why the climatologists turn themselves or the planet into “god” (or refuse to believe God exists at all — that way THEY ARE IN CONTROL (in their own minds). Pitiful.).

  66. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    David Chappell said on May 20, 2013 at 4:47 pm:

    Oh dear, what can we do to keep ourselves amused now….

    I doubt WordPress will allow us to post pictures of that.

  67. Madman2001 says:

    Folks, as amusing as this is, it’s really only weather. The break-up last year was the 4th earliest.

  68. Arizona CJ says:

    I don’t see why you guys are so happy about the record being broken, because the fact that it was broken will soon be part of the warmist’s “evidence” for global warming.

    Why? Because they often cite various things ‘adapting’ to warmer conditions as evidence. And in this case it’s easy; all they have to do is say that ice has adapted and is thus more heat tolerant than ever before.

    /snark

    Okay, now in a serious vein, I’ll add that one of the biggest things that I hate about the global warming crowd is their stunning hypocricy. Last year the ice going out early was a good proxy for climate, but this year is isn’t. A record breaking hot spell somewhere is a good indicator of climate, but a cold spell isn’t. It’s hypocritical as hell.

  69. glenncz says:

    >I don’t see why you guys are so happy about the record being broken, because the fact that it was broken will soon be part of the warmist’s “evidence” for global warming.

    Yes. I listened to a warmers lecture stating the cold, snowy winter Alaska had last year was because the arctic ice put a stall in the jet stream. They have an answer for everything. At the very least they will define the record as “extreme weather”.

  70. john robertson says:

    @Arizona CJ,
    Whatever the weather, springs to mind.
    Hypocricy is the number one currency of cults and scams.

  71. J Adams says:

    [snip - try again to leave a cogent comment without rants, ALL CAPS, or cusswords - mod]

  72. woz says:

    A fun few days albeit watching – as others have expressed – the equivalent of paint drying.

    But my joy was complete when I saw that the winners of the Jackpot were: Mr and Mrs Snow!!!!

  73. Merrick says:

    Sorry if this explanation has already been given (haven’t had time to read through the comments), but here’s what I think is the best argument why the leap year argument is the wrong one…

    The vernal equinox in 1964 and 2013 both fell on 20 March. In 1964 it occurred at 1410Z and in 2013 is occurred at 1102Z. Those are, respectively, 0510AST and 0102AST.

    The ice breakup on the Nenana river occurred on 20 [May] in both 1964 and 2013. In 1964 ice breakup occurred at 1141AST and in 2013 it occurred at 1441AST.

    The total span of time between Vernal equinox in 1964 and ice breakup was 61 days, 6 hours, 31 minutes. The total span of time between Vernal equinox in 2013 and ice breakup was 61 days, 12 hours, 39 minutes.

    So, like it or not, the ice breakup was more than six hours further into Spring in 2013 than it was in 1964 and 2013 is a record.

  74. Janice Moore says:

    “… the winners of the Jackpot were: Mr and Mrs Snow!!!!” (Wizard of Oz ? [:)])

    COOL!

    **********************
    J. Adams, it’s been 20 minutes — come on, leave a post! It must have been a doozy!

  75. woz says:

    Janice Moore says:

    …. (Wizard of Oz ? [:)])

    ************************************

    I like it! In fact “woz” is my lazy internet handle – just a nickname from school more years ago than I can count! But I live in Oz (Australia) and my surname starts with “W” – so why not? :)

  76. Who has the latest photo of it still up?
    I have a screen cap at AKDT 15:37:45.
    http://i43.tinypic.com/a5b6ee.jpg

    I had no inkling it had less than 4 minutes to live.
    — Well, other than the number of cars parked to watch the finale.

    I also have 15:33:45 and 14:05:44. There is a small leftward shift between 14:05 and 15:33.
    But other than ice drifting down the center lead, no discernable changes between 15:33 and 15:37.

  77. philincalifornia says:

    007 says:
    May 20, 2013 at 5:23 pm
    I”m sure he’s sincere but that makes it no less disgusting.

    http://dailycaller.com/2013/05/20/democratic-senator-goes-on-anti-gop-rant-over-climate-change-as-tornadoes-hit-oklahoma/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
    ========================

    Most probably a liar and an idiot, but least probably “sincere”.

  78. Janice Moore says:

    @ woz (a.k.a. Wizard of Oz),

    “… I live in Oz (Australia) and my surname starts with “W” [AND you are (from you writing style) obviously bright -- but NOT a humbug, I am sure, (as the WofOz was -- he was bright and kindhearted, though)] – so why not?” #[:)]

    Hm. As I think about it… too many people might emphasize the humbug part of that title (which I’d forgotten till I wrote this post). LOL, there’s a guy who posts on WUWT called “Richard M” — I’m sure he is a fine fellow (his comments indicate that), but EVERY time I see his name, I think of ol’ Richard M. [Nixon]. Good ol’ Richard Milhouse. And especially, I think of him these days as Barack Hussein D’oh!bama is being compared to R.M.N. more frequently (Mark Levin was making that comparison starting in 2008).

  79. John Mason says:
  80. Colorado Wellington says:

    John Mason says:
    May 20, 2013 at 8:20 pm

    Mr and Mrs Snow also won this thing back in 2005! They’ve won over 1/2 million dollars on this!

    No, John. The article says they split the 2005 jackpot with 46 other winners for a $6k+ share. 28th of April only came up 3 times in the history but the 29th and the 30th nine times each so I guess the end of April must be a very popular range for people to bet.

  81. Michael Ronayne says:

    John Daly, Jerry Brennan and I discussion the best way to plot the ice breakup data when John first reported on the Nenana Ice Classic and its usefulness or lack thereof as a Global Warming proxy. I have plotted the ice breakup dates using the following metrics.

    1. Days (Julian Days) from the start of the New Year at midnight.
    2. Days from the Vernal Equinox which occurs at various times on the day of the event.

    I could easily generate a graphic of the ice breakup using the calendar date, which is [how] the data is stored, but that graphic is useless, so there are really only two contenders in my view

    At first I was very enthusiastic about using the Vernal Equinox until I realized that I have overlooked one very serious problem. There is a very strong time-of-day signature in the ice breakup events because of that big hot shiny yellow thing up in the sky. That signature is very clear when plotting days from the start of the New Year at midnight. When you plot using the Vernal Equinox displacement days, that time-of-day signature is lost or to be more precise, totally obligated. When placing a bet on the outcome of the ice breakup, time-of-day and days from New Years are your two critical inputs. If you bet using the Vernal Equinox displacement, you are going to lose big-time.

    For the sportsmen amongst John’s readers, I tried to predict the ice breakup using ice thickness but those results were very unreliable, which is why they call is gambling. After John’s death, I continued to update the Excel tables with decreasing frequency. With today’s events, I updated the tables and started to produce some graphics again.

    For the record, this is not the latest ice breakup, 1964 is. But that is not the real news, sine 1990 the ice breakup dates have been flat-lined, just like global warming and they may even be lengthening, particularly with today’s results, which may imply that it is getting colder in Alaska.

    Let me review the data and if it appears to be reasonable, I will send the Excel file to Anthony with a public domain declaration. If someone uses the data and gets lucky, just remember that Anthony has a tip jar.

    Michael Ronayne
    Nutley, NJ

    ["Obliterated" vs "obligated"? Mod]

  82. de_mol says:

    Meanwhile in Europe: England had an extraordinary cold spring, but in Spain it is even more incredible: it snowed in Madrid 2 weeks ago, but the cold continues. The last days it snowed again in the mountains around Madrid and leaving snow throughout the country. Normally Spain is waiting for the first sun tourists in May to go to the beach:
    http://www.abc.es/local-madrid/20130518/abci-nieve-sierra-madrid-201305171935.html

    http://www.abc.es/local-galicia/20130518/abci-nieve-galicia-mayo-201305181709.html

  83. Kon Dealer says:

    The Nenana Ice Classic is just “weather”, unlike the tragic F5 Tornado in Moore Oklahoma which was “climate change”

  84. Leo G says:

    I hate to spoil a good party, but I don’t believe the Nenana Ice Classic record was broken this year.
    The Equinox this year was on 20 March at 11:01:36 GMT. In 1964 it was at 14:10:01 GMT. The difference of 3hrs 8mins 25 secs needs to be considered since the appropriate reference frame for the event is the tropical solar calendar not the civil calendar.
    The record may have been broken by 3 hours according to civil time, but was missed by 8 minutes and 25 seconds with reference to the solar calendar.

  85. Rhys Jaggar says:

    There may well have been a trend for 300 years toward later ice outs in the NH, but perhaps the Wisconsin researchers should go back even further to find out if there were a trend prior to that for earlier ice outs.

  86. philjourdan says:

    @ Leo G says: May 21, 2013 at 2:22 am

    leo, I think you got your plus and minus sign wrong. Since the equinox occurred later in 1964 than in 2013, and the breakup occurred later in 2013, than in 1964, the difference is a full 6 hours+ (in relation to the equinox).

  87. James at 48 says:

    Bonus round … what is the possible relationship between causal factors of this record ice out and causal factors of recent severe weather in the South Plains (not to mention, the current freeze warning in a portion of Nor Cal)?

  88. Greg Goodman says:

    “leo, I think you got your plus and minus sign wrong.”
    Yes, if the equinox was earlier this year it had longer to melt,

    Since I said I’d repost the data once it went here it is.
    The full series of dates as year plus decimal number of days. (Sorry no equinox corrections. It would be better but it’s pretty small, so I have higher priorities) .

    1917 120.479
    1918 131.398
    1919 123.606
    1920 132.449
    1921 131.279
    1922 132.556
    1923 129.083
    1924 132.632
    1925 127.772
    1926 116.669
    1927 133.238
    1928 127.684
    1929 125.653
    1930 128.794
    1931 130.391
    1932 122.427
    1933 128.812
    1934 120.588
    1935 135.564
    1936 121.54
    1937 132.836
    1938 126.843
    1939 119.56
    1940 111.644
    1941 123.076
    1942 120.561
    1943 118.807
    1944 125.589
    1945 136.403
    1946 125.694
    1947 123.744
    1948 134.467
    1949 134.527
    1950 126.676
    1951 120.746
    1952 133.711
    1953 119.662
    1954 126.751
    1955 129.592
    1956 122.975
    1957 125.396
    1958 119.622
    1959 128.476
    1960 123.8
    1961 125.48
    1962 132.974
    1963 125.767
    1964 141.487
    1965 127.792
    1966 128.508
    1967 124.497
    1968 129.393
    1969 118.519
    1970 124.442
    1971 128.897
    1972 131.497
    1973 124.499
    1974 126.656
    1975 130.576
    1976 123.452
    1977 126.532
    1978 120.638
    1979 120.638
    1980 120.553
    1981 120.781
    1982 130.733
    1983 119.776
    1984 130.648
    1985 131.608
    1986 128.951
    1987 125.633
    1988 118.385
    1989 121.843
    1990 114.219
    1991 121.503
    1992 135.268
    1993 113.542
    1994 119.959
    1995 116.557
    1996 126.522
    1997 120.436
    1998 110.704
    1999 119.908
    2000 122.449
    2001 128.542
    2002 127.894
    2003 119.765
    2004 115.594
    2005 118.501
    2006 122.728
    2007 117.658
    2008 126.953
    2009 121.862
    2010 119.379
    2011 124.177
    2012 114.819
    2013 140.612

  89. Greg Goodman says:

    ” Normally Spain is waiting for the first sun tourists in May to go to the beach:”
    Same in south of France. Wettest spring for at least 20 years and summer is struggling to come through. Global warming, “mon cul”.

  90. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    From Greg Goodman on May 21, 2013 at 1:42 pm:

    1917 120.479
    1918 131.398
    1919 123.606

    Ah, I see what you did, added number of days in months plus day of the month. So 4/30/1917 yielded 120 days.

    Same mistake I did, you’re counting a non-existent day. As you’re counting, 6AM on January 1 would be 1.25 as a decimal day, except no full days have occurred yet, so the real number would be 0.25 days.

    Thus the first date is really 119.479 decimal days.

  91. Greg Goodman says:

    That is correct but since first of Jan =0 is not more valid than first of Jan =1 it is irrelevant.

    In fact to get something that relates to temperature you to take the complement , something like 180 – melting period. I did that and plotted it against a couple physical parameters like d/dt(CO2) and SST using 180 days. The data need a shift of about 40 days to align them.

    So for short term variability to match other climate variableness it would be 140 -melting (or 141 depending upon how you count.

    To get as accurate as possible I would agree with an equinox based calculation since that is a 0.25 error each year repeating every 4 and included almost a full day drift over the 100 years.

    First of January =1 is irrelevant.

    http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=258

  92. Greg Goodman says:

    What I see as being one of the most important features of the Ice Classic as a proxy is the WWII period. What it clearly shows is that there was not a massive post war drop such as the once introduced by Met Office Hadley about 30 years ago , was adopted by most other SST datasets, and that persists to this day.

    There really was a wartime bump in the data , it was NOT an artefact.

  93. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    From Greg Goodman on May 21, 2013 at 11:49 pm:

    That is correct but since first of Jan =0 is not more valid than first of Jan =1 it is irrelevant.
    [meaningless fluff]
    First of January =1 is irrelevant.

    Following a numerical methodology that results in summing a non-leap year as having 366 days instead of 365, is to be declared irrelevant, thus allowing the incorrect numbers you supplied to stand as they are “correct enough for this purpose”, thus you don’t have to issue a correction.

    Got it. This is Climate Science™, something being completely false yet true enough to make conclusions, is expected.

  94. Colorado Wellington says:
    May 20, 2013 at 6:01 pm

    Believe it or not, but the discipline of climatology is not the Olympiad for bean counters.

    regards

  95. Brian H says:

    starzmom at 4;43 pm, May 20 has it right. Carried downstream, didn’t fall. Here’s the screen cap from 0:16 of the timelapse above:

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/63014025@N05/8837703940/ ” title=”Nenana tripod by BrianFH, on Flickr”

Comments are closed.