According to the ice breakup log, the latest the ice has ever gone out was May 20th, 1964 at 11:41 AM Alaska Standard Time. As of this writing there is about 28 hours to go to break that record.
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.
If that’s true, it looks like we are headed to colder times. Here is the current live view which updates every 30 seconds.
Refresh to see the latest.
I’ve been watching over the past 12 hours and the tripod has drifted downstream slightly, rope slack changes gave the impression that the tripod had changed position, but that’s an artifact of wind, and there appear to be leads in the ice opening nearby, though it is hard to tell if they go through the ice or if it is simply water on the surface.
Here is what the image looked like on 5-15-13 (thanks to Willis):
They need a weather station there to go with the live image. Many people want to know what the temperature and wind conditions are like.
[UPDATE] I trust Anthony won’t mind my adding a blink comparator between the 16th at two in the afternoon, and the 19th at ten in the morning. Click on the image to see the comparison.
From my inspection, I’d say the tripod hasn’t moved … it looks like it’s tipped a bit, but I think that’s just the different sun angles, because the black-painted sections don’t seem to be moving.
It’s the most exciting slow-motion event I know of …
w.
Nenana Municipal Airport (PANN)
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=64.5638889&lon=-149.0930556&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Nenana%2C%20AK%2099760%2C%20USA
REPLY:Thanks for that. The temperature at the airport is likely different than on the river, with the weather station right next to that big chunk of asphalt at 64.547180° -149.087135°
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=64.547180+-149.087135&hl=en&client=firefox-a&hnear=0x5132978d0536b085:0x34e63a8527ec0948,64.547180+-149.087135&gl=us&t=h&z=15
-Anthony
Scientists impaled on imprudent, overconfident generalizations.
Gripping entertainment. Can I bear the excitement? As I sip my coffee and stare at the ice my thoughts turn to what the polar ice might do this year. Might it also be late breaking up? That would set the cat among the pigeons.
The record late breakup was in 1964, a leap year, so a new record could be set on May 21.
Having said that, since the 1998 turning point, the breakup has been trending later, and the global warming activists have been silent.
I don’t think it has drifted downstream yet – using position of the flag that intersects the round clump of bushes on the far side of the river, it looks like it’s in the same position as it was in the post from Willis – link here, since it rolled off the front page: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/ice-cam-945-am-pdt.jpg
REPLY: yes, but I’m going by the slack and position of ropes, which changed since last night. It may be closer to shore. – Anthony
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries is right with climate change but not the man made one. It’s cooling!
I have also been watching it all night and I noticed that the wind was quite strong from the south west earlier on, but dropped to almost nothing abround 4 hours ago. You can judge the wind strength and direction from the flag on top of the tripod. I also note that there has been no drift of the tripod, but it appears to have tilted slightly left (it may be my imagination).
I’m on night shift so have looked at it aproximately every 30 minutes.
I don’t see the drift, it was about there 24 hrs ago, on one third to the left of that little bush at the other side. Also the dark spot to the left has been there for days
But that big crack behind the tripod is new, from the last hours, So I’m not holding my breath.
But it would be cool (pun intended)
What exactly has to happen for “ice out”? The tripod sinks?
Among the reasons I take the threat of global cooling seriously is experience with river ice. A story: when my father rowed at Dartmouth in the late 50s and early 60s, his crew encountered an iceberg on the Connecticut River about three miles north of the boathouse. They were able to row their wooden shell to shore as it sank and then run back to the boathouse in their socks, a near-death experience that turned into just a story to tell about rowing in New England.
I followed in my father’s footsteps both to Dartmouth and the boathouse in the mid-80s, and my crew, on the first row in a new Vespoli eight, at dusk on an early-April practice, struck a mostly submerged iceberg (as they mostly were). I was in the bow of the boat, the forward-most oarsman, and the front 14 feet of the shell including yours truly rode up on top of the berg. Incredibly, we were able to back off the thing without rupturing the extremely fragile shell, something that I consider a low-level miracle in my life.
Getting the docks out before ice up and then in after ice out was always a slippery, faintly dangerous adventure. Dartmouth, being so far north, was starved for water time and thus chose to row in relatively dangerous conditions more often than most of its rivals. Understanding that there are many serious reasons why ice is not your friend, extending well beyond the realm of collegiate rowing, frozen water did nonetheless threaten the continuation of the Ambler line more than once.
I’d love to see a timelapse of this. I’m surprised I can’t find one by search.
They call it a “classic”? Is this what people in Alaska do for fun — watch paint dry, I mean, watch ice melt?
Reblogged this on Is it 2012 in Nevada County Yet? and commented:
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT NOW IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FAIRBANKS FRIDAY AND CONTINUE EAST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT… NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK… MAY 16 2013
…WINTER RETURNING TO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY…
SNOW…WINDS AND RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE TEENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
@TerryMN, after more viewing I agree with you, post has been updated.
REPLY: yes, but I’m going by the slack and position of ropes, which changed since last night. It may be closer to shore. – Anthony
Just measured, and yep – it has moved closer to shore. Leads me to think the crack in the center of the channel goes all the way through, and isn’t just a pool on top of the ice.
@TerryMN it seems tripod spotting is an inexact science, I just saw the wind pickup and the rope slack looked like it did days ago – what are you measuring?
A valid point that someone must have addressed in the past but prior to 1988 no one much cared about record setting climate change proxies.
So is 11:41:01 A. M. on May 21st, 2013 the “rapture” time, then?
After spending the last few months reading almost entirely non alarmist books and information I still find myself rooting for the cold weather and I hate cold weather. Can I be saved?
If true, the head post should be updated.
It tips over. There’s a sensor on it with a timer so it is automatically logged when.
In my comment above I meant to ref Don B @ur momisugly 8:41 re Leap Year.
Almost as exciting as Norwegian Television.
Comment to the Anchorage Daily News about the May 17 snowfall in Anchorage:
“As of midnight, weather service hadn’t announced official total for the day. If there was any measureable snowfall, at least 1/10th of an inch, it would be the longest season between first snow and last at 231 days. It would also tie the second-latest snowfall on record. In 1964, we had 0.2 inches on May 22. Records are since 1954.”
http://www.adn.com/2013/05/18/2906394/late-season-snowfall-may-17-2013.html
In Denali National Park business is hurting due to late snowfall.
http://www.newsminer.com/news/local_news/may-storm-dumps-heavy-snow-in-interior-alaska-denali-national/article_9e337fa8-bf62-11e2-b16e-0019bb30f31a.html
what are you measuring?
I’m assuming the current image and the one Willis saved on 5/15 are the same resolution. I just sized another window to fit between the base of the platform and a reference point on shore. In this case the right tip of the second (from the left) concrete parking stop. There’s about a 20 pixel difference between 5/15 and now.
Because it is tethered to the shore, I am assuming that when the ice begins to move the thing eventually tips over. Trouble with that is that sometimes things refreeze and then another week goes by before ice moves again. Don’t know if this happens in this particular setting or not but it happens in other areas. Ice dams stop the flow, freezing temps invade and freeze it up again, and then the next warm stretch gets things moving again. Eventually ice begins to move out without starting and stopping.
Robert Sheaffer says:
May 19, 2013 at 9:00 am
What exactly has to happen for “ice out”? The tripod sinks?
The ropes you see are connected to a clock. As soon as it is pulled out of it, the clock stops. That’s the Tenana river ice break up time at Nenana. So whatever the tripod does, topple or drift or whatever is irrelevant. The clock has to be stopped by pulling out the rope.
Its is cooling.. A little past mid May with the wind having more chill than I can honestly remember (Im 47).. Night time is noticeably cooler as well.. Thank god for the sun 🙂 with fingers crossed that this summer brings a productive growing season..
What that has to do with multi billion dollar green advocacy groups (big green) and their political academic enablers (Universities) I simply dont know.. They have far to much invested in their own well being for them to change their tune.. Maybe they will cook up a new doom du jour or simply stick with the warmest May ever at the north pole / south pole / bottom of the ocean / top of the mountain or any other place where direct observations are difficult / impossible to make..
I would like to say that their political movement is off the rails but that would imply that it was on the rails at one point, which simply isnt true.. Emote, emote, emote. $$$ change the subject.