How long before cyclonic “sting jets” are blamed on global warming?

From the University of Manchester: Storm study reveals a sting in the tail

Meteorologists have gained a better understanding of how storms like the one that battered Britain in 1987 develop, making them easier to predict.

Illustration of weather pattern that can lead to a sting jet

University of Manchester scientists, working with colleagues in Reading, Leeds and the US, have described how these types of cyclones can strengthen to become violent windstorms.

The Great Storm of 1987, which famously caught out weatherman Michael Fish, left a trail of destruction when winds up to 120mph swept across southern England and northern France, killing 22 people. More recently, gusts of 100mph in January 2012 damaged buildings in Scotland and cut power to tens of thousands of homes.

Such storms are characterised by severe gale-force winds known as sting jets that descend from several kilometres above the surface.

“Sting jets are these regions of strong winds that tend to occur to the south and south-east of the low centre,” explained Professor David Schultz, who led the research in Manchester’s School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences.

“These winds are generated from a descending motion of air that is several kilometres above the surface to the north and north-east of the depression. While the front is intensifying, in a region known as frontogenesis, the winds are steadily rising then, in a region known as frontolysis at the tail end of the front, the winds start descending. If the descent is strong enough and other conditions are appropriate, the strong winds can reach the surface in this place called the sting jet.”

The researchers, whose findings were published in the journal Weather and Forecasting, took to the skies to fly through a developing storm and measure the strength and direction of the winds.

“The irony is that the winds are strongest in the cyclone where the front is weakening most intensely.

“Our findings are significant because they tell us exactly where we can expect these winds and give forecasters added knowledge about the physical processes that are going on to create this region of strong winds.”

###

The paper, ‘Using Frontogenesis to Identify Sting Jets in Extratropical Cyclones,’ is published in Weather and Forecasting, by David Schultz, The University of Manchester, and Joseph Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Ocean Prediction Center, Maryland.

Here is a video about it, if you can get past the ‘Star Wars’ opening, it has some value worth watching:

20 thoughts on “How long before cyclonic “sting jets” are blamed on global warming?

  1. making them easier to predict….
    …and at the same time not making their predictions any more accurate

    This still does not give them enough info………

  2. At the time, or just after oct1987, Met Off analysis found that the depression deepened suddenly, as expected, but unexpectedly filled even more quickly. This gave a rush of air into the centre of the storm as it deeped and an even more violent exit of air as it filled.

  3. Anything which adds to our understanding of weather systems is good in my view. Especially living here in the UK – so much depends on them!.

  4. How long before cyclonic “sting jets” are blamed on global warming?

    Will 2011 do?

    Sting jet windstorm in current and future climates
    …………….Next, they will document their frequency and preferred tracks in the current climate and possible future climates. Finally, they will determine the likely distribution of sting jet strength in these climates. Global warming may increase the havoc wreaked by intense windstorms and the sting jets within them and thus their societal costs. Enhanced knowledge of sting jet storms in current and future climates will serve a wide range of stakeholders from the building construction industry to those responsible for the management of forests.

    http://www.axa-research.org/project/suzanne-gray

    Peace and out.


  5. Julius Henry says:
    May 1, 2013 at 1:25 pm

    Like a US “Derecho”?
    Steve says:
    May 1, 2013 at 1:29 pm

    Can someone compare and contrast this with a downburst?

    A downburst is the cold downward air from a convective storm system being ‘squeezed’ under the warmer air on the ground and accelerating to over hurricane force as it does so.

    A Derecho is a line of convective storms that forms an arc or v shaped pattern where the downbursts are linked into one large area of wind again very strong straight line winds.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derecho

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/svrwx/downburst.htm

    The ;sting jet’ concept seems to be weather system size and more related to fronts forming and the winds involved in the cyclonic pressure systems. I know that 1987 was quite exciting having been in its path and seeing the number of trees down in South Central UK. Although it was still not quite to the level of ‘The Great Storm’ of 1703.

    “The storm, unprecedented in ferocity and duration, was generally reckoned by witnesses to represent the anger of God—in recognition of the “crying sins of this nation”, the government declared 19 January 1704 a day of fasting, saying it “loudly calls for the deepest and most solemn humiliation of our people”. It remained a frequent topic of moralizing in sermons well into the nineteenth century.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1703

    Nowadays of course the government would have said it was due to CO2 and SUVs and instead of calling for fasting would be raising taxes. With just as much a lack of logic.

  6. There was a notable sting jet during Sandy which caused the high winds in the NYC region.

  7. Closest thing I can find to a published paper:

    — EARLY ONLINE RELEASE —

    “Using Frontogenesis to Identify Sting Jets in Extratropical Cyclones”

    . . . . . DAVID M. SCHULTZ
    Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences,
    University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

    . . . . JOSEPH M. SIENKIEWICZ
    NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Ocean Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00126.1

  8. How long? In… 3… 2… 1…

    Worse ones, anyway. Some years back, even.

    “Because global warming is pumping more heat energy into the Earth’s atmosphere, the havoc wreaked by the Sting Jet – and the bill for the damage – may rise still further.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/4793429/A-sting-in-the-tale-of-the-Great-Storm.html

    “Sting jet formation could increase as more heat energy enters the atmosphere through global warming.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3349225/Sting-jet-blamed-for-winds.html

  9. ““The storm, unprecedented in ferocity and duration, was generally reckoned by witnesses to represent the anger of God—in recognition of the “crying sins of this nation”, the government declared 19 January 1704 a day of fasting, saying it “loudly calls for the deepest and most solemn humiliation of our people”. It remained a frequent topic of moralizing in sermons well into the nineteenth century.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1703

    Nowadays of course the government would have said it was due to CO2 and SUVs and instead of calling for fasting would be raising taxes. With just as much a lack of logic.”

    So you know for certain that God would never operate in that fashion. Interesting. You must be on better terms with Him than I.

  10. Carl, thanks for this gem of warmism: ““Because global warming is pumping more heat energy into the Earth’s atmosphere, the havoc wreaked by the Sting Jet – and the bill for the damage – may rise still further.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/4793429/A-sting-in-the-tale-of-the-Great-Storm.html

    Of course they forget conveniently that a storm energy will also depend on the gradient between cold air/warm air. Since “global warming” is supposed to warm the poles -the Arctic faster than the rest we are told through polar amplification- one wonders where they’ll find their increased gradient… Unless of course, the Arctic warming is a result of averaging sparse temperature stations through manipulation and the reality is completely different hence 1070hPa MPHs…

    The present circumstances ( from april 27 to now) on western Europe -snow in Spain last week-end- being brought by the eastern edge of a 1040hPa-now 1030hPa MPH that extends now to the coast of Mauritania… Must be warm air…LOL

  11. Wonder why they did not call it the Yin and Yang storm? Not into graphics I guess.

    Still not a hurricane. Been through all variations mentioned above. A Sting Jet might level quite a few trees and make it look random. A hurricane with sustained winds of 75 miles an hour will take down every tree more than seventy years old. Every one of them. Throughout your metropolitan area.

  12. Occasionally i go for a walk around Manc Uni. They have a small park off Oxford Road, with a display showing effect of UHI in a very Watts-esque way, with an intersection of the area from Manc city centre to the Cheshire Plain. It shows about 10C difference. And yet I know a warm-ist scientist called Choularton at the uni who would argue UHI is 0.1C… How soon before the display is removed?

  13. Carl “Bear” Bussjaeger says:
    May 1, 2013 at 3:30 pm

    How long? In… 3… 2… 1…

    Worse ones, anyway. Some years back, even.

    Nice one Carl. :)
    I am amazed to see the two articles you presented go back to 2003 and 2005! Not only didn’t we have to wait long we didn’t need to wait at all. :( Another one for the Warmlist.

  14. But will sting-jets also increase the frequency of crop circles, assuming, of course, that they too are caused by global warming…?

  15. A bit off topic but it may interest those of you who like vintage aircraft and the history of weather research.

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/research/ThunderstormProject/TSP.php

    When I was a kid I saw the P-61 in Dayton almost every summer when I was a kid. (My Grandparents lived close to Wright-Patterson.) I never knew till I explored the links in this story that it was one of only four left in the world.

Comments are closed.