Will Lonnie Thompson archive THIS new ice core data?

UPDATE  – 4/7/13

At the time I wrote this post, April 4th 11:45AM, at ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/trop/quelccaya/

there was a placeholder file quelccaya2013.txt reading then:

“# Data will be added to this file upon publication of Thompson et al. 2013 Science”

It seems they listened. Good on them for doing so (assuming WUWT had an impact).  Now there are several data files dated April 5th at 8:20PM.

Steve McIntyre offers some praise and some notes for this latest development here -Anthony

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From the Ohio State University , taken with a grain of salt since Dr. Thompson and his wife Ellen are serial non archivers of ice core data (even when asked for it), which prevents other scientists from checking their work.

Discovery of 1,800-year-old ‘Rosetta Stone’ for tropical ice cores

Find offers the most complete picture of Earth’s low-latitude climate history to date

This photo from a 1977 expedition to Quelccaya Ice Cap in Peru shows clearly defined annual layers of ice and dust visible in the ice cap’s margin. Researchers at the Ohio State University are using a set of ice cores taken from Quelccaya as a “Rosetta Stone” for studying other ice cores taken from around the world. Credit: Photo by Lonnie Thompson, Courtesy of Ohio State University.

COLUMBUS, Ohio—Two annually dated ice cores drawn from the tropical Peruvian Andes reveal Earth’s tropical climate history in unprecedented detail—year by year, for nearly 1,800 years.

Researchers at The Ohio State University retrieved the cores from a Peruvian ice cap in 2003, and then noticed some startling similarities to other ice cores that they had retrieved from Tibet and the Himalayas. Patterns in the chemical composition of certain layers matched up, even though the cores were taken from opposite sides of the planet.

In the April 4, 2013 online edition of the journal Science Express, they describe the find, which they call the first annually resolved “Rosetta Stone” with which to compare other climate histories from Earth’s tropical and subtropical regions over the last two millennia.

The cores provide a new tool for researchers to study Earth’s past climate, and better understand the climate changes that are happening today.

“These ice cores provide the longest and highest-resolution tropical ice core record to date,” said Lonnie Thompson, distinguished university professor of earth sciences at Ohio State and lead author of the study. 

“In fact, having drilled ice cores throughout the tropics for more than 30 years, we now know that this is the highest-resolution tropical ice core record that is likely to be retrieved.”

The new cores, drilled from Peru’s Quelccaya Ice Cap, are special because most of their 1,800-year history exists as clearly defined layers of light and dark: light from the accumulated snow of the wet season, and dark from the accumulated dust of the dry season.

They are also special because of where they formed, atop the high Andean altiplano in southern Peru. Most of the moisture in the area comes from the east, in snowstorms fueled by moist air rising from the Amazon Basin. But the ice core-derived climate records from the Andes are also impacted from the west—specifically by El Niño, a temporary change in climate, which is driven by sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

IMAGE: This 2002 photo of Quelccaya Ice Cap, taken from the same spot as a previous photo in 1977, shows the retreat of the ice wall’s vertical margins.Click here for more information.

El Niño thus leaves its mark on the Quelccaya ice cap as a chemical signature (especially in oxygen isotopes) indicating sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean over much of the past 1,800 years.

“We have been able to derive a proxy for sea surface temperatures that reaches back long before humans were able to make such measurements, and long before humans began to affect Earth’s climate,” Thompson said.

Ellen Mosley-Thompson, distinguished university professor of geography at Ohio State and director of the Byrd Polar Research Center, explained that the 2003 expedition to Quelccaya was the culmination of 20 years of work.

The Thompsons have drilled ice cores from glaciers atop the most remote areas of the planet—the Chinese Himalayas, the Tibetan Plateau, Kilimanjaro in Africa, and Papua Indonesia among others—to gauge Earth’s past climate. Each new core has provided a piece of the puzzle, as the researchers measured the concentrations of key chemicals preserved in thousands of years of accumulated ice.

A 1983 trip to Quelccaya yielded cores that earned the research team their first series of papers in Science. The remoteness of the site and the technology available at the time limited the quality of samples they could obtain, however. The nearest road was a two-day walk from the ice cap, so they were forced to melt the cores in the field and carry samples back as bottles of water. This made some chemical measurements impossible, and diminished the time resolution available from the cores.

“Due to the remoteness of the ice cap, we had to develop new tools such as a light-weight drill powered by solar panels to collect the 1983 cores. However, we knew there was much more information the cores could provide” Mosley-Thompson said. “Now the ice cap is just a six-hour walk from a new access road where a freezer truck can be positioned to preserve the cores. So we can now make better dust measurements along with a suite of chemical analyses that we couldn’t make before.”

The cores will provide a permanent record for future use by climate scientists, Thompson added. This is very important, as plants captured by the advancing ice cap 6,000 years ago are now emerging along its retreating margins, which shows that Quelccaya is now smaller than it has been in six thousand years.

“The frozen history from this tropical ice cap—which is melting away as Earth continues to warm—is archived in freezers at -30ºC so that creative people will have access to it 20 years from now, using instruments and techniques that don’t even exist today,” he said.

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Coauthors on the study include Mary Davis, Victor Zagorodnov, and Ping-Nan Lin of Byrd Polar Research Center; Ian Howat of the School of Earth Sciences at Ohio State; and Vladimir Mikhalenko of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Funding was provided by the National Science Foundation’s Paleoclimatology Program and Ohio State’s Climate, Water and Carbon Program.

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kim
April 4, 2013 11:50 am

Poor devils may have figured out that the only way to save their reputations is to not archive. Ockham wonders.
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Chuck L
April 4, 2013 11:51 am

I believe I read that the Kilimanjaro icecap has been increasing recently, I wonder if that is true for other locations used in this study. Of course they had to write the obligiatory:
“The frozen history from this tropical ice cap—which is melting away as Earth continues to warm…”

AnonyMoose
April 4, 2013 11:52 am

It’s an unproved claim. They say this ice core looks good when compared to other cores that they’ve collected. But they haven’t made any of the data available, so why should they be believed?
Also, because they didn’t archive the other core data before this one, we can’t trust that this really is a Rosetta Stone because there is no unaltered archive of the other cores to compare against.

Joe Public
April 4, 2013 11:57 am

Why should someone get paid for something they can’t prove they’ve done?

Henry Keswick
April 4, 2013 11:57 am

Lonnie Thompson! I had the misfortune to attend a graduation ceremony at Lancaster University where Lonnie was being presented with an honorary doctorate for his work in alerting us all to the global warming disaster we are apparently facing (!). Examples supporting his honour were his involvement in Al Gore’s film and the loss of ice on Kilimanjaro – to which the comment ‘whatvwe can all expect to see in future’ was added. I wanted to shout ‘snake oil salesman’ and ‘sublimation’ respectively but being a reserved Englishman was too polite to do so.
It was an unnerving/frightening demonstration of how an ‘on message’ university could promulgate and add credibility to junk science.

toml
April 4, 2013 11:57 am

Is there actually a paper, or just a press release?

Chuck L
April 4, 2013 12:05 pm

I also recall reading that the ice-caps/glaciers are more affected by local/regional conditions than global conditions. I also wonder if they will dare to archive the data so intrepid sleuths like Jean S, Steve McIntyre, and Rud Istvan can analyze and audit.

Greg Goodman
April 4, 2013 12:08 pm

If it’s not verifiable , it’s not science . It’s that simple.
Desitinguished professors of creative writing perhaps. Not distinguished scientists, that for sure.

Jeff
April 4, 2013 12:10 pm

“… specifically by El Niño, a temporary change in climate, which is driven by sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.”
Climate??? The warmistas consider anything less than 30 years as weather, or?
“In fact, having drilled ice cores throughout the tropics for more than 30 years, we now know that this is the highest-resolution tropical ice core record that is likely to be retrieved.”
Unadulterated hubris….sadly not lacking in the AGW world…

April 4, 2013 12:13 pm

Did I read it right? The core was extracted in 2003 and these guys are only now getting around to publishing results? I think Thomas Young worked faster than that on the original Rosetta stone!

April 4, 2013 12:17 pm

Again I ask what is the altitude of the freeze line for this glacier.

April 4, 2013 12:23 pm

Front-page proclamations like this are mostly worthless. They only work for “The Team” because the “truth” only comes out much later on page 93, below the fold.

GeologyJim
April 4, 2013 12:25 pm

With Lonnie and Liz, I’m not even willing to accept the assertion that the two photos were taken “from the same spot” 35 years apart. In any event, it would be a remarkable coincidence that both photos were obtained with lenses of equal focal length and magnification (which would alter the appearance of distance, etc).
I don’t know much about tropical icecaps, but it strikes me as odd that a steep ice front (as shown) would just march upslope during 35 years of snowfall/melt/sublimation.
Just sayin’

jc
April 4, 2013 12:25 pm

Is there any residual capacity in the world to apply any standards – or intelligence, or plain common sense?
Why do you post this here? Except possibly within the context of an evaluation of the bogus as demonstrated in detail and degeneracy as rampant through the whole?
I did not read beyond the caveat that this “work” could not be verified by another living being. Why would anyone?
If someone makes a claim, and you ask them to demonstrate it, and they refuse, you are dealing with a con man. There is nothing more to it.
Science, penis size, buying a used car. It’s all the same. Show it or show that you are a fraud.

BA
April 4, 2013 12:26 pm

toml says:
“Is there actually a paper, or just a press release?”
Press release says the paper is published in Science Express:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2013/04/03/science.1234210
Anthony Watts asks:
“Will Lonnie Thompson archive THIS new ice core data?”
Paper says data already archived:
“The data are archived at the NOAA World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/trop/quelccaya/quelccaya2013.txt

April 4, 2013 12:27 pm

Believe me, I am no defender of AGW, or man-made climate change theory. I always look for sane, objective reports to debunk all that craziness. But I’m a bit confused on this one. Is this being billed as “Will Lonnie Thompson archive THIS new ice core data?” because we expect a detailed analyses of these Andean cores to show that global temps were considerably higher (eg, Medieval Warming Epoc), long before industrialization? Or is there something more I’m missing? Please explain.

Bryan A
April 4, 2013 12:28 pm

I found this paragraph very telling and says completely different things depending on the Glass half full, Glass half empty theory
“The cores will provide a permanent record for future use by climate scientists, Thompson added. This is very important, as plants captured by the advancing ice cap 6,000 years ago are now emerging along its retreating margins, which shows that Quelccaya is now smaller than it has been in six thousand years.”
This could also be written
The cores will provide a permanent record for future use by climate scientists, Thompson added. This is very inportant, as plants captured by the advancing ice cap 6,000 years ago are now emerging along its retreating margins, which shows that Quelccaya was smaller 6,000 years ago than it is now and that the climate there was likely warmer then than it is now

bladeshearer
April 4, 2013 12:34 pm

Has this been “peer reviewed,” “spouse reviewed,” or simply outgassed by OSU’s PR office?

April 4, 2013 12:37 pm

So, they’re going to get “creative” with this and “prove” unprecedented warming using the “Rosetta Ice” as indisputable evidence? Without letting anyone check their findings? I wouldn’t trust them an inch.
We need more scientists on this. Real ones. You know, the ones actually interesting in discovery and truth and the scientific method, willing to share their data.
Great ice core. Let’s see it properly looked at. The Thompsons have tainted their own reputations, we need someone of clean reputation and intent to step up to the plate.

April 4, 2013 12:39 pm

So … there has probably only been ice up there for about 2000 years? That seems about right as there was a rather significant climate regime change about 2000 years ago along the eastern Pacific and before that period it was probably too warm. It could be that that ice cap has only formed since the Holocene Climate Optimum.

george e. smith
April 4, 2013 12:47 pm

If this spectacular find was made in 2003, why did they wait 10 years to tell anyone. That’s more than half of the most recent global non-warming period. And I suspect, the ice has had plenty of time to contaminate.

Dave
April 4, 2013 12:47 pm

“The cores will provide a permanent record for future use by climate scientists, Thompson added. This is very important, as plants captured by the advancing ice cap 6,000 years ago are now emerging along its retreating margins, which shows that Quelccaya is now smaller than it has been in six thousand years.”
If there was live vegetation that was somehow caught under a glacier, wouldn’t that indicate a very rapid change to local conditions that led to glaciation?

April 4, 2013 12:52 pm

BA April 4, 2013 at 12:26 pm
“Paper says data already archived:”
not yet, quelccaya2013.txt reads:
“# Data will be added to this file upon publication of Thompson et al. 2013 Science”

knr
April 4, 2013 12:56 pm

Year by year, can it actual been that good or are we looking at the ‘ish’ approach to measurement .
But to be fair to the Thompson’s they been avoided archiving data and refusing to allow others to probable check their work long before ‘the Team’ started playing that game . Indeed in their own way they could be called the grandparents of the ‘trust me on this ‘ approach to science.

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