WUWT spawns a free to read climate sci-fi novel

People send me stuff. This time is a novel about climate change. – Anthony

CAGW as self-organising narrative, referencing previous posts on fiction, and offering a free downloadable novelette

By Andy West

We Are Narrative host Andy West

I’m a long-term WUWT reader, but extremely rare commenter. The last time was back in January when I had time at various airports, and I commented on Willis’ Venusian atmosphere post.

I first became interested in the topic of Global Warming, as it was known then, almost 6 years ago. The trigger for me was watching Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth, and realising that the film was a very powerful narrative which lacked proper balance and was all about advocacy, with references to underlying theory frustratingly vague and infrequent. The cherry-picker scene was kinda sciencey, yet somehow even that aroused questions rather than convincing me. I had no means to evaluate the science aspects back then, so resolved to look into them (wow, armed only with a long-ago physics degree did that take years longer than I thought!) But in fact my chief interest was not the climate science.

My passionate hobby is evolutionary science, and particularly the evolutionary bounds on, and processes within, sentient populations. Those processes include the development of memeplexes, ‘self-organising narratives’, if you will, and I very quickly realised that here, right under my nose, was a doozy of a specimen already far into burgeoning growth that I nevertheless hadn’t noticed at all. Until that time I’d made the mistake of believing that the science underpinning CAGW was ‘certain’, ‘solid’, was hard fact, and a solid factual cage prevents memeplexes from escaping and evolving. They thrive on mysticism and doubt, on unbounded (or very poorly bounded) fact-spaces. So I’d missed the obvious.

Well a little more on memeplexes later. Meanwhile I should explain that I’m a writer on the side (mainly high-concept Science Fiction, but occasionally more mainstream work and a little poetry), so during my regular trawls of the climate blogs the following posts caught my eye, the first being here at WUWT:

People send me stuff. Here’s one about UEA offering a prize contest for “creative climate writing”. – Anthony.

“The scholarship is open to all applicants to the Prose Fiction and Poetry strands of the MA, whose writing demonstrates a commitment to environmental themes, in particular to furthering the general understanding of the impact of climate change.”http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/24/poetic-license-ueas-creative-climate-writing-prize/

The above is an annual bursary, worth £5000, open to students undertaking the UEA MA Creative Writing course.

Here’s another, this time from Australia, courtesy of Bishop Hill:

Philippa Martyr, writing in Quadrant magazine, looks at academic grant awards relating to climate change. Like this for example: Literary Studies: “The project will devise and develop a new ‘cultural materialist’ paradigm for science fiction studies and apply it to a case study of science fictional representations of catastrophe, especially nuclear war, plague and extreme climate change.” ($239,000)  http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2012/7/24/climate-change-and-literary-studies.html

Given the establishment offering the prize, I suspect the first effort will contribute to the narrative of man harming the planet through the medium of climate change, and the second will likely re-interpret existing literature to align to that same narrative. Just two more contributions added to the (probably) hundreds of thousands of narrative reinforcements in press releases and articles and talks and action-days and all the rest. The fact-space is still far too unbounded to restrict this aggressive accumulation of narrative weight, which already leans far too heavily upon sceptical questions and healthy debate. But pending the maturation of climate science, other means can be used to help restore some balance.

Every narrative can have its roots exposed by the light of a counter-narrative, can be challenged by a different story. The many excellent posters here and at other good sceptic blogs create a kind of patchwork ‘resistance’ narrative based on emerging science and science-audit and political comment. But the fiction posts above inspired me to contribute in a way that I’m personally able to do, with a self-contained piece of counter-narrative expressed in science fiction, something that may hopefully be a useful and very readable means to keep minds open.

Anthony’s post above starts with those immortal words ‘People send me stuff’.

I have read that so many times and never thought I’d be sending stuff, but here I am doing precisely that. And my stuff is high-concept fiction. I offer the novelette ‘Truth’ free to WUWT readers and in fact also for free distribution elsewhere as you please (the work is under a creative commons license with no-commercial-use and no-making-derivatives, but you can email / put on websites / whatever). In fact though I hope everyone has some pleasure reading it, the main value would be in migrating out from the fully sceptic audience, so send it where you will. My intent was an enjoyable way to make folks stop and think, to raise questions, to counter the massive narrative weight of ‘certain’ CAGW and indeed to portray the social phenomena behind that weight as a means to do so.

Front Cover for Free SF Story 'Truth'

For anyone nervous of SF geekiness, don’t worry it has no ray-guns or spaceships or time-warps; it’s only loosely SF and has plenty of action too. And those self-evolving memeplexes I mentioned are luridly portrayed, one in particular… Please do not baulk at the first use of the word ‘denier’, the context will become clear. Mention of climate change issues appears only slowly, but fear not there is purpose in this and a lot comes later on to stir minds, or for those already asking healthy questions, still an interesting perspective, a glimpse at depths of social realism, and some parts to revel in too 🙂 .

‘Truth’ is about an hour’s read. Go here wearenarrative.wordpress.com to grab the pdf. Just look for the tasteful 1950s B-movie front-cover image above.

Or pull the book direct from here: http://wearenarrative.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/truth.pdf.

In fact the blog is brand new and not made known to the world until this post. In truth I wasn’t expecting much of any traffic and have little time to respond anyhow, but I’d appreciate it if anyone drops by with a comment on the story. In case anyone is wondering, there was definitely no grant funding for this story, and I can say with confidence that it isn’t going to win a prize from any consensus organisations!

A final word on memeplexes. I’m sceptical of the three Cs: ‘consensus’, ‘certainty’, and ‘catastrophe’. Nevertheless I don’t know whether CO2 will work out to be big problem, a modest problem, or possibly not a problem at all. I really don’t think anyone yet has the means to know. But to compare CAGW with other social memeplexes: if the existence of God was unequivocally disproved tomorrow, there’d be no need for the huge infra-structures of religious paraphernalia.

And, more interestingly, if he/she beamed down tomorrow and introduced himself/herself, there would likewise be no need for the same infra-structures. We’d all just get his/her phone number. Similarly if the case for CAGW was indeed proven (inclusive of all main mechanisms), the fact-space would be just as constrained as if it was disproven, and the whole memeplex would collapse. In the proven case, just as for historic major disasters or wars, everyone’s shoulder would be at the wheel, we’d all know what to do and all the social messaging and CC related promotion hierarchies and political positioning would evaporate overnight.

As this clearly isn’t anywhere remotely close to happening, while terms like ‘believers’, ‘disbelievers’, ‘faith in the science’ (or loss thereof) and the ugly ‘deniers’ term, all abound, then I’m guessing there’s probably very little that is certain within the wicked problem of climate, least of all attribution.

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Bloke down the pub
December 15, 2012 10:38 am

I look forward to Hollywood picking up on this, but maybe I shouldn’t hold my breath.

Justthinkin
December 15, 2012 10:49 am

“For anyone nervous of SF geekiness, don’t worry it has no ray-guns or spaceships or time-warps; ”
Tuttut….SF has more reality and truth then anything coming out of the IPCC/cAGW/UN/etc.

TomRude
December 15, 2012 11:03 am

OT:
Another Simon Fraser University info-advertisement in the decidedly very accommodating Vancouver Sun… This time it is about Carbon Storage:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Wanted+feasible+solutions+carbon+dioxide+conundrum/7702704/story.html
Recall the poll that claimed that only 2% in Canada denied AGW? It was commissioned by the Carbon Storage lobby. And guess who else is now fear mongering? No other than Mister Carbon tax in British Columbia, the mini Hansen coal protestor Mark Jaccard:
“Simon Fraser University energy economist Mark Jaccard, who is preparing a series of studies for Carbon Management Canada, agreed that the global pace of carbon management research is too slow.
“Unfortunately, most of the anticipated carbon capture and storage projects have not happened,” Jaccard said. “The government is showing no leadership in the desperate global struggle to prevent catastrophic climate change, and because of the time lags we are almost too late now. I am extremely frustrated with Canada’s federal government especially.
“Globally, we are going to rocket past the 2 C temperature limit and more likely increase temperatures by 6 C in this century. We cannot be expanding oilsands or coal or natural gas today. This is a simple truth, but no one wants to believe it.”
With simple truths like these, gobbled by reporter Scott Simpson without one ounce of critical assessment, who needs lies in the media? Poor Jaccard, CCS projects are not happening because they make no sense scientifically and economically: check in the UK. And yes, Marko, you are not frustrated with the BC Liberals since they implemented your little pet tax in such democratic way and sure you need more research on Carbon management because, hey, you need to make some dough just in case the whole thing goes up in smoke… Any more greenish self serving bull, be sure to call on the Vancouver Sun: they deliver every week.

Mike Fowle
December 15, 2012 11:08 am

Interesting. It was Michael Crichton’s novel “State of Fear” that started me on questioning the “consensus”. Perhaps this will do the same for others. Good luck.

mpainter
December 15, 2012 11:12 am

Andy West: “Nevertheless I don’t know whether CO2 will work out to be big problem, a modest problem, or possibly not a problem at all. I really don’t think anyone yet has the means to know.”
Rest assured that CO2 is no problem for the world. CO2 is the fundamental basis of life on this planet. Atmosheric CO2 is a plant fertilizer and the source of all of food from agriculture, and likewise the base of the food chain of the oceans. The AGW hypothesis has been falsified by the temperature record of the last fifteen years, and you are bound to be aware of this, if you have indeed followed the issue as you claim above.
“I really don’t think anyone has the means to know” – Wrong. We do have means to know. That means is simply a critical analysis of the science done in support of AGW, which inspection reveals the AGW movement as a manufactured crisis based on flimsy scientific pretexts and sustained by propagandists.
Personally, I do not understand what a writer of fiction has to do with issues of science.

December 15, 2012 11:19 am

Bloke down the pub says:
(December 15, 2012 at 10:38 am)
I think you’d have to hold your breath for decades, by which time sceptics may be filmworthy at last, in the interesting historical sense of: ‘looks like they had a good point after all, why did nobody listen?’
Andy

December 15, 2012 11:28 am

mpainter says:
( December 15, 2012 at 11:12 am)
I understand your position, but personally I’m rather wary of ‘certainty in either direction. As to ‘fiction’, it is often a vehicle to better digest facts. Anyhow, we both seem to agree that CAGW is a narrative and not a real and scientifically proven crisis. The story expresess in a very digestible manner the social force behind that narrative. I have a feeling you may actually like ‘Truth’ if you did but give it a try. It’s free after all 🙂
Andy

December 15, 2012 11:30 am

Mike Fowle says:
(December 15, 2012 at 11:08 am)
Thanks Mike 🙂
Andy

Editor
December 15, 2012 11:31 am

Oh wow, that’s cool. I’ll certainly check it out. It’s gotta be better than the science fiction I read at http://www.skepticalscience.com/ 🙂 (Sorry, couldn’t resist!)
I really like the recursive “People send me stuff.” If we get that feedback ratio above 1, Anthony will be in trouble!

Martin C
December 15, 2012 11:40 am

Mike Fowle says . . (December 15, 2012 at 11:08 am)
I read “State of Fear” several months after the 2007 IPCC ( . . or should I say IPeCaC . . with thanks to C. Monckton . . !) report, which at that time, I believed a fair amount of warming may have been man caused.
But after my own ‘internet research – from blogs, to published articles, to temp history – , and then reading “State of Fear”, it really made my day. And the nature of what the ‘greens’ in the book were doing to ‘promote’ weather and other catastrophes, well, I could see them doing that today . .
Andy, have downloaded the book, and look for ward to reading it soon ( . .need to leave here shortly . .).

pscant
December 15, 2012 11:47 am

10 years ago, two scientists wrote this: http://www.baenebooks.com/p-137-fallen-angels.aspx and kept it free for many years. Even at $4, it is a bargain. I’ve read it three times and will read again. It’s simple, but easy to relate to.

John
December 15, 2012 11:51 am

Andy-
Thanks for the post of your novelette.
If God did beam down to earth, I doubt that everyone would get his/her phone number. Let’s take an example that has some historical documentation: when Jesus came to earth, his message was misunderstood by most everyone, and all the authorities and people decided in the end he had to be crucified. It’s just hard for people to change their view of the world, for God and for climate.

David, UK
December 15, 2012 11:53 am

I made it to about page 4 or 5 before the boredom overwhelmed me. Sorry Andy, but this story had me gripped like a fried egg sliding off a Teflon pan.

Jimbo
December 15, 2012 12:02 pm

Nevertheless I don’t know whether CO2 will work out to be big problem, a modest problem, or possibly not a problem at all. I really don’t think anyone yet has the means to know.

It has been provided by the IPCC itself through its temperature projections. We compare this with current observations.

gnomish
December 15, 2012 12:04 pm

just read it, Mr. West.
i enjoy descriptons of the vision – the entities are black and white, but the relationship between them comes in colors.
not sure that you created a potent memeophage virus, tho.
you did pluck a chord strongly with the money line.
“look to the west and ask what’s up.”
there- fixed that for ya!
tnx.

Editor
December 15, 2012 12:05 pm

I would think that Hollywood is so left wing that a film of this book will not happen, unlike “2012” and “The Day After Tomorrow”. Plus the concept of mankind continuing to drive V8 cars and Western countries to have expanding economies, although satisfying and necessary is not very dramatic!

December 15, 2012 12:09 pm

Andy: Inconvenient truth struck me the same way. It made wild claims, using shoddy proof. It also started me on a quest to seek the truth. Shortly after that, my wife bought me State of Fear… and I went into full blown truth seeking.
Stories can be powerful motivators.
It did not take long to realize that the science behind CAGW was in fact emotional and politically driven. Never could I find any substantive answers when I sought proof or a smoking gun that CO2 was warming the world towards a tipping point, that it was catastrophic. None…
If you pinned a warmist into a corner with the right questions, many of the warmist would then say, “we should act in prudence… that is, what if it were true? We should do everything we can to curb CO2 emissions –just in case”
The entire process of gaining AGW followers was pathetic –but it worked.
Those who fall into the CAGW meme are mostly liberals who want to feel they are being generous by voting to give away SOMEONE else’s money. The people most hurt by the huge increased costs of green energy are the very poor.
Good luck with the book.

Zeke
December 15, 2012 12:26 pm

“But to compare CAGW with other social memeplexes: if the existence of God was unequivocally disproved tomorrow, there’d be no need for the huge infra-structures of religious paraphernalia.”
A more interesting study would involve examining historic examples of the State’s interest in eradicating the folk, religious, and traditional beliefs of the people in order to collectivize them and gain control. Any one who devotes a few moments to the subject will find much more evidence for that than he can proving that he knows all conditions and states of being in the Universe.
“And, more interestingly, if he/she beamed down tomorrow and introduced himself/herself, there would likewise be no need for the same infra-structures.”
I think this is not the case. We would still find the need for the freedom of religion, just as we have in our Bill of Rights. It is simple to demonstrate that many would reject the existence or essence of God, even if “proven,” and many would alter it in some way. So we are back to the need for individual liberty in this matter.

Alan Wilkinson
December 15, 2012 12:27 pm

If the novel is as good as the introduction it will be well worth a read. Congratulations on the originality of the concept.

Iane
December 15, 2012 12:28 pm

mpainter : – ‘The AGW hypothesis has been falsified by the temperature record of the last fifteen years’.
I too am deeply sceptical about AGW, but the above statement cannot possibly stand like that, rather the AGW hypothesis is made less likely by the past 15 years temperture record, because :-
a) the record is not very accurate (we can question the value of the error bounds but, given all the problems Anthony has exposed, the errors COULD be pretty large).
b) other factos besides CO2 will obviously influence the temperature record and, given all the uncertainties of our current understanding, it is far from clear how long these other factors might neutralise the effect of CO2.

DirkH
December 15, 2012 12:40 pm

andrewmharding says:
December 15, 2012 at 12:05 pm
“I would think that Hollywood is so left wing that a film of this book will not happen, unlike “2012″ and “The Day After Tomorrow”. Plus the concept of mankind continuing to drive V8 cars and Western countries to have expanding economies, although satisfying and necessary is not very dramatic!”
In a few years having an expanding economy will sound like an SF concept to you (if you’re American. For the Greek it’s a mythological concept already.)

December 15, 2012 12:41 pm

Ric Werme says:
(December 15, 2012 at 11:31 am)
Thanks Ric.
David, UK says:
(December 15, 2012 at 11:53 am)
Thanks for your time David. No story is for everyone, and my stuff is often polarising regarding appreciation. One of my novels at Librarything has not a single average mark, but a bunch below average and a bunch above, fortunately for me dominated by the latter. This is unsusual, most people get a gaussian at some intermediate position. I guess I’m a love me or hate me writer 😉
Andy

December 15, 2012 12:50 pm

I gave up on fiction when i realized much of the official science and history education today IS fiction. The birth of our short and blessed Holocene was the Quanterary Extinction when 33 of 45 large North American mammals disappeared, along with the Clovis tribes of European based humans. This event dumped enough boulder sized hailstones down on the 13 ton Mammoths in Siberia to break their vertebra and leg bones and flash-freeze them in an upright position before the temperate vegetation in their intestional tracts could freeze. It is doubtful that stone tooled humans with limited use of fire provolked this “climate change”…or in any way contributed to the other magafauna extinctions at this time, including saber toothed tigers, dire wolves, short faced bears and giant sloths. It is unquestionable that our ancestors LIVED thru this era, and benefited from this change. In just a few thousand years 3 miles of ice pack on the NH melted and raised oceans 440 ft. It is utter fiction to think that PPM changes in three atom gas molecules and a fictional 1 C bump is a climate change that the planet will ever record. Carbon climate forcing is credit default swap science for FORCED Carbon commodity marketing. The underlying fiction is todays monetary system. When we are not forced to live a fictional reality, then the genre may become intersting again.

December 15, 2012 12:51 pm

gnomish says:
(December 15, 2012 at 12:04 pm)
Thanks for reading, and for the ‘fix’ too 😉
Jimbo says:
(December 15, 2012 at 12:02 pm)
Well you may have a point, but I wrote all this stuff quite a few months ago, long before the AR5 draft leak, plus I’ve learned in the last 6 years to be wary of any ‘certainty’. It seems that everything in the wicked problem of climate is challengeable, and likely to be for a long time. However, as you can tell from the story, I think that CAGW is in the main a social phenomena, and not a climate one, which I think puts me firmly in the sceptical camp.
Andy

December 15, 2012 12:59 pm

Mario Lento says:
(December 15, 2012 at 12:09 pm)
Thanks Mario, your journey to scepticism sounds much like mine.
Alan Wilkinson says:
(December 15, 2012 at 12:27 pm)
Thanks for the vote 🙂
Andy

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