Lewandowsky thinks failure to get or find email is conspiracy theory

Wow, this Lewandowsky story just keeps getting more bizarre. It’s like nothing I’ve even seen before.

On DeSmog Blog, Lewandowsky says we are victims of “conspiratorial thinking” and promises “four more people will have egg on their faces.” Great, bring it.

So now there’s a conspiracy theory going around that I didn’t contact them. It’s a perfect, perfect illustration of conspiratorial thinking. It’s illustrative of exactly the process I was analysing. People jump to conclusions on the basis of no evidence. I would love to be able to release those emails if given permission, because it means four more people will have egg on their faces. I’m anxiously waiting the permission to release this crucial information because it helps to identify people who engage in conspiratorial thinking rather than just searching their inboxes.

Desmogblog (http://s.tt/1mwBG)

Newsflash perfessor. We HAVE searched our inboxes and as I reported on Lucia’s blog:

Anthony Watts (Comment #102455)

September 1st, 2012 at 2:03 am

Add WUWT to the list. If he sent me an invitation, I surely can’t find it. Jo Nova asked me to search a couple of weeks ago, didn’t find it then, nor now.

That comment on WUWT referenced by “ob” upthread is not an invitation, and certainly not from Lewandowsky or one of his co-authors. It is from PaulW, who isn’t from Australia.

and…

Anthony Watts (Comment #102580)

September 4th, 2012 at 7:34 am

Regarding Steve McIntyre’s note at 3:11PM.

I understand his problem, I get hundreds of emails a day. Sometimes I miss important emails in the deluge.

So far, on my home computer (where I do most WUWT work) I have not been able to find any evidence that WUWT received an invitation from uwa.edu.au” or Charles Hanich about that time. That doesn’t mean there isn’t any, as it is also possible it ended up in the spam filter and was deleted.

I’ll search my office computer today and get a second look, to see if perhaps it resides there.

Lewandowski should know that if you really want to reach people in this day and age, don’t assume email is reliable. Back in the DARPA days, before SPAM accounted for a significant portion of Internet traffic, it was reliable. Now today, for anything truly important I follow up with a phone call and repeated emails until I get a response.

Lewandosky’s assistant apparently made an assumption not supported by a reply, Lewandowsky made a further unsupported assumption about “privacy”.

and…

Anthony Watts (Comment #102588)

September 4th, 2012 at 10:06 am

Per my previous comment, in addition to my home computer, I did a search on my office computer for:

“uwa.edu.au”

“Charles Hanich”

“Hanich”

And got no emails.

So either it was never sent, or ended up in SPAM and was deleted.

I see a lack of due diligence on the part of Lewandowsky if he really wanted skeptics to take the survey. The fact that he delegated the task to an underling, did no assurance follow up, and went with one-sided sampling tells me he his goal was to create a paper that fit his pre-conceived notions.

There’s no science involved in this paper, just opinion and confirmation bias of the highest order.

The fact that this paper passed peer review is even more troubling.

=====================================================

To be extra thorough, I also searched again just now for “kwiksurvey” which is the name of the survey website Lewandowsky used. Nothing. I repeated all the searches I made above using two methods.

1. Email search tool for my email client

2. Computer file search tool – looking at every file (including the thousands of emails I have back to 1998)

While I found some files with the keywords, none  of them were the survey participation invitation.

So explain to me professor Lewandowsky, how failure to receive or be able to find emails supposedly sent, without any other mode of contact or attempts at communication is somehow conspiracy theory.

If Lewandowsky sent an email, it likely ended up in SPAM. Lots of “take our quick survey” emails are spam these days. He should know better than to trust email as the only contact medium for something he deems important. Instead, he accuses us of being conspiracy theorists when we ask for proof.

<p style=”padding-left: 30px;”>

Jo Nova (via Andrew Bolt) points out this little incongruity:

There are even more strange things about this. Deltoid had already hosted the survey before McIntyre was even emailed once. McIntyre apparently did not recieve the same invitation or a link to the same survey. Deltoid got their invitations from Professor Lewandowsky, not the assistant. Lewandowsky said no skeptic hosted the survey, but Junkscience did. Did Lewandowsky not even check the sites of skeptics he emailed?

Anything goes in climate conspiracy theory science it seems.

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September 7, 2012 8:29 am

DeSmogBlog is the creation of James Hoggan and his PR company and Hoggan sits on David Suzuki’s board. Go figure…

TomRude
September 7, 2012 8:29 am

The choice of Hoggan’s DesmogBlog, fierce defender of Peter Gleick must be a coincidence…

Les Johnson
September 7, 2012 8:33 am

Mr. Lewandowski should know that skeptics tend to use the following advice:
Don’t attribute to conspiracy, that which can be accounted for with incompetence.

michaeljmcfadden
September 7, 2012 8:39 am

Er, why does he have to beg permission to release emails that HE sent??? That sounds a bit odd. Plus I don’t know how much stock I’d put into whatever format he used to try to prove that sent them… though maybe that’s more foolproof than I’d expect. Heh, given the number of spoofed emails I’ve gotten supposedly from “myself” trying to sell me weight loss products (I weigh 115 soaking wet) over the years I don’t have a lot of faith in what the headers say.
– MJM

manicbeancounter
September 7, 2012 8:41 am

Anthony it’s no good stating the facts, as according to “The Debunking Handbook”

A common misconception about myths is the notion that removing its influence is as simple as packing more information into people’s heads.

It is amazing that to someone so sensitive to conspiracies should have missed the one for his survey that is desmogblogs main aim to propound. Something along the lines of

Climate denial only exists as a serious force due to significant funding by oil and tobacco interests.

davidmhoffer
September 7, 2012 8:42 am

“People jump to conclusions on the basis of no evidence. I would love to be able to release those emails if given permission, because it means four more people will have egg on their faces. ”
Lewandowsky is playing a game. He’s asserting that any responses he received are in confidence, and so he cannot release them without permission of the authors. That’s just a clever ploy to distract everyone’s attention from the fact that he needs no such permission to release HIS emails which he claims he or an assistant sent. The replies are not the evidence we seek, it is the existance of the original request that is being challenged.
All Lewandowsky need do to set the record straight is release his original requests. As they are his, and his alone, they contain no confidential information (other than email addresses perhaps) that he has any moral, ethical, or legal duty to protect.
Fess up Lewandowsky. Who did you send the supposed emails to, date, time, and what did they say? It is up to those you accuse to decide if they wish to keep their responses private or not. You have no say in the matter. All you need do it show us the evidence that you sent what you say you sent. The burden of proof is upon you to demonstrate that you send the emails in the first place. In this case, absence of evidence is, in fact, evidence of absence.

Louis Hooffstetter
September 7, 2012 8:43 am

I said before, Lewandowsky’s work is exactly the quality of research we’ve come to expect from climastrologists. So it comes as no surprise his response is exactly what we would expect from Mann or other members of the ‘Team’. This whole affair reinforces the notion that ‘Climate Science’ related articles usually aren’t science at all. In most cases, it could be more aptly described as headline grabbing BS, put out by grant grubbing, pseudo-scientific media whores who piss and moan when someone points out they didn’t follow the scientific method.

Maureen from Canada
September 7, 2012 8:45 am

I use Kwiksurvey and generally it is a good and cheap survey instrument, but this summer its site was hacked and a lot of data was lost on surveys in progress. They did a really good job of restoring what they could (and I got the survey data I needed back, but in a limited form which made it difficult to analyze).
However I question why a university would use this site – I just it because it is FREE. But a university??? Really???

September 7, 2012 8:58 am

He’s a “social scientist”, which means his job is to destroy civilization.
He’s just doing his job. Give him a break!

timg56
September 7, 2012 9:10 am

I’m not holding my breath for a response by Prof. Lewandowsky.
Speaking of responses, I saw an interesting one on RPjr’s site yesterday from David Arpell. Now I am hesitant to sound critical of David here, knowing how tight he and Anthony are, but in this instance I will risk it. In a responce to another commenter who stated that China’s CO2 production now exceeded that of the US and Europe combined, David provided the actual figures to show how wrong the original commentor was. China produced only 8.5 gigatons verses the 8.9 combined number of Europe and the US. Huge difference, not even close really. Well, yeah I guess it is rather close. Close enough for it to be a fair bet that it will only be another couple of years before China has overtaken both regions combined. It certainly is close enough for the original poster’s point to stand – that efforts to reduce US and European emissions will have no effect on CO2 induced climate change.
The more interesting comment by David was something to the effect that per capita, China’s output was only 37% that of the US. I am curious as to the point David was trying to make with this statistic. The only point I can take away from it is that he believes Americans should live at the level of the average Chinese peasant. Now if David Arpell wants to crap in an outdoor toilet and then shovel it into his organic garden, more power to him. I’m going to stick with flush toilets and shopping at Safeway.

wobble
September 7, 2012 9:15 am

So now there’s a conspiracy theory going around that I didn’t contact them….I would love to be able to release those emails if given permission

Why on earth would Lewandowsky need permission to release an invitation email that HE sent?
Regardless, this doesn’t address the fact that his data wasn’t from skeptics – it was from people that have motive to make skeptics look bad.
His paper is, without question, garbage, but maybe his university will white wash the investigation.

Code Monkey Wrench
September 7, 2012 9:17 am

Looks like someone’s painted himself into a corner and is counting on belligerence and bluster to win the day. After Dr. Gleick’s spectacular implosion, you’d think people would be a little more careful about this sort of thing.

elftone
September 7, 2012 9:17 am

davidmhoffer says:
September 7, 2012 at 8:42 am
…Lewandowsky is playing a game. He’s asserting that any responses he received are in confidence, and so he cannot release them without permission of the authors. That’s just a clever ploy to distract everyone’s attention from the fact that he needs no such permission to release HIS emails which he claims he or an assistant sent. The replies are not the evidence we seek, it is the existance of the original request that is being challenged.

With respect, David, I don’t believe he’s that smart. He’s been caught out in the middle of a confirmation bias-fest, and instead of thinking clearly about the consequences of continuing to dig the hole he’s digging for himself, he’s gone on the offensive, believing it’s the best way to avoid having what actually happened thoroughly investigated by the likes of Steve McIntyre and Lucia.
At least he’s not threatening to sue anyone who questions him… ;).

lurker, passing through laughing.
September 7, 2012 9:18 am

Lewandowsky is just following Gleick’s example for what to do when caught lying.

DirkH
September 7, 2012 9:20 am

davidmhoffer says:
September 7, 2012 at 8:42 am
“Lewandowsky is playing a game. He’s asserting that any responses he received are in confidence, and so he cannot release them without permission of the authors. That’s just a clever ploy”
That’s not clever at all. He’s wrecking the reputation of the journal, his institution and his own.
They can write all the propaganda they want anyway without behaving stupid like this. Now, the whole world is watching.
Clever? Not so.
Lewandowsky!
The whole world is watching!
Come on, make an even larger fool of yourself. We’re waiting.

September 7, 2012 9:22 am

Reminds me of an attack against Mitt Romney where he was accused of paying no income tax by Harry Reid. When Harry Reid was asked to prove this claim, Senator Reid simply said it was up to Mitt Romney to prove him wrong. The issue is still alive showing how successful the accusation without proof was. I always thought one of the primary human rights was to be innocent until proven guilty and not the other way around. It seems that to a leftist, you are guilty unless proven innocent and by the way they will fight you every step of the way to prove your innocence.

September 7, 2012 9:22 am

davidmhoffer says:
September 7, 2012 at 8:42 am
“… All you need do it show us the evidence that you sent what you say you sent. ”
Hell, he could go a step refuter and get his mail administrator to pull up the SMTP logs and show that the destination server received the sent E-mail.
This guy is a barking spider.

September 7, 2012 9:23 am

* further

Chuck L
September 7, 2012 9:31 am

He is FOS, DeSmog, Glieck, and Lewandowsky deserve each other.

eqibno
September 7, 2012 9:47 am

Has anyone suggested that Dr. Lewandowsky’s poor scholarship and inadequate methods were proposed to him or aided by other parties? Other than a conspiracy of one (inadequate approach) and doubtful abilities to formulate an argument, I have yet to see any conspiratorial thinking or evidence. OTOH, a method to try to “devaluate” the sceptical position by getting a rise and inordinate (hyserical) feedback from the blogosphere to prove a point about the targets of his invective (I am hesitant to use the d-word.)

jorgekafkazar
September 7, 2012 9:51 am

“…So now there’s a conspiracy theory going around that I didn’t contact them. It’s a perfect, perfect illustration of conspiratorial thinking….”
Conspiracy : (noun) 1: a secret agreement between two or more people to perform an unlawful act [syn: confederacy]
How can the actions of Lewandowsky’s “I”, above, an individual, constitute a conspiracy in anyone’s mind? Is Loosky revealing that he believes himself more than one individual, thus capable of being in conspiracy with himself? If so, this would seem to be a perfect, perfect illustration of delusional thinking.

Shevva
September 7, 2012 9:55 am

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/07/recursive_denail_fury/
It is now deleted from my favourites, shame really it use to be a good site.

September 7, 2012 9:59 am

Anthony Watts:

I see a lack of due diligence on the part of Lewandowsky if he really wanted skeptics to take the survey.

I see a complete lack of due diligence period. A conspiracy theory is not required to explain that, just incompetence, dishonesty and an unbelievably poor grasp of his native language. Somebody should tell Lewandowsky that for it to be a conspiracy, it needs to involve more people than just him, unless he has multiple personality disorder, then just him.
Saying you’ve contacted five blogs isn’t meaningful from a research perspective, unless you also include whether these blogs ever acknowledge receipt of your request. He doesn’t acknowledge that he has failed to follow the simplest guidelines for competent academic practice, instead as is the wont for his sort, points fingers to others and blames them for his own clumsy research methods, general ineptitude and failures to properly execute what should have been a simple study.

Don
September 7, 2012 10:01 am

Lewandowsky, Gleick, and others seem to resemble characters in old Roger Corman B-flicks such as The Little Shop of Horrors and Bucket of Blood, wherein a nerdy misfit’s inept attempt to rise within a subculture and get a girl meets with improbably wild success– for awhile– only to be turned into a period of bloody cover-ups and a final horrific revelation as the artifice unravels. More popcorn!

September 7, 2012 10:08 am

timg56,
David Appell is flat wrong:
click1
click2
Those figures are from several years ago, so China is emitting even more now. And the U.S. is emitting less.

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