Taking a break, it has been an exhausting week. Postings resume Monday.
Be sure to vote in the August ARCUS sea ice forecast poll.
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Taking a break, it has been an exhausting week. Postings resume Monday.
Be sure to vote in the August ARCUS sea ice forecast poll.
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Hansen is back at it!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/climate-change-is-here–and-worse-than-we-thought/2012/08/03/6ae604c2-dd90-11e1-8e43-4a3c4375504a_story.html?wpisrc=emailtoafriend
All the ‘extreme weather’ is caused by ‘climate change’.
He really said, “It’s worse than we thought.”
Can an expert from the Climate Realist community submit a forceful refutation? Dr. Christy?
/Mr Lynn
A little limerick I penned in response to the goings on this week. It is a parody of a famous one of over fifty years ago which itself was a parody of a late Victorian one. As far as I can trace there were several variants of both and to my surprise they appear to have been by our old friend Anonymous. Anyway:
I dislike this whole climate scam
There’s Muller, McKibben and Mann
Mann’s tree rings are bunk
Mullers stats are all junk
And McKibben just weeps all he can.
A.J.G Jones
Hope you and the readers enjoy.
Kindest Regards
Another science writer bites the dust, caught out by fabricating Bob Dylan quotes for his book on creativity:
“The Fall Of A Hipster Intellectual ”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100174768/jonah-lehrer-the-fall-of-a-hipster-intellectual/
Let’s look up his AGW views…yep, just what the doctor (of popular delusions) ordered, via a quick Google search:
“Lehrer published a comment on his blog, The Frontal Cortex, where he denied that he was implicitly questioning science and scientific methods in any way. In the same blog comment, Lehrer stated that he was not questioning fundamental scientific theories such as the theory of evolution by natural selection and global warming by calling them “two of the most robust and widely tested theories of modern science”.
And a history of pushing post-normal science:
“If Lehrer didn’t really mean that belief in a given scientific claim is always a matter of choice, why did he say it?”
This is a revision of a wuwt comment of mine that I just left at jnova, and it seems to be going over pretty well there, and because I think the idea behind it is important, I wanted to make the comment here as well:
Around 1990 a huge amount of politically driven funds were being funneled into fields supporting the global warming hypothesis. Further, arguably nearly all of the post 1990 climatologists did not get accepted to their programs without agreeing with the “science” of the warmists. In this sense, these post 1990 vintage climatologists by and large lack credibility on the subject of… climate. Seriously. And here’s a good comment from the dailymail:
A little hiatus for the next 2 weeks at notrickszone so I’ll repost a comment of mine, a bit of news from Germany I stumbled across today…
Desertec, the idea of producing solar electricity for Europe in the Sahara, founded by the Club Of Rome and today accompanied by the industry consortium DII, with members like Siemens, Eon and RWE, is basically dead, writes Der Stern in its print edition.
E-on reacted defiantly, pledging their unwavering allegiance to desertec.
(German:)
http://www.welt.de/newsticker/news3/article108419446/E-on-bekennt-sich-zu-Desertec.html
Der Stern BTW, are 100% warmist Hamburgers and pro-renewables at any price. They write that Desertec/DII applied for 1.5 bn EUR subsidies to be paid by the German electricity user so they can continue with a 600 MW solar plant in Morocco. (using some statistical tricks to make it appear as if the electricity produced down there does anything good for the German consumer. Of course it would be consumed in Morocco and Spain)
Looks pretty bad for them.
They have one interesting number. Even given the high insolation in Morocco, the price for a produced solar-thermal kWh would be 22 Eurocents. End consumer price in Morocco is 4 Eurocents. (“subsidized” writes Der Stern, but they don’t qualify that.)
In shady Germany, production of one PV kWh is already cheaper than 22 Eurocents… (current FIT for new installations is max. 20.76 Eurocents).
So it looks like the ever cheaper silicon PV panels have destroyed the economic basis of the Desertec technology.
Open Thread! Everything off topic is now on topic!☺
click1
click2
click3
click4
click5
click6
click7
click8
click9
click10
click11
click12
click13
click14
click15
click16
click17
click18
click19
click20
For your listening enjoyment……
At 12 years old Sungha Jung, from South Korea, plays “Hotel California”. You will be pleasantly surprised how good it is:
UAH for July at 0.28.
2012 in Perspective so far on Five Data Sets
2012 started off rather cold but has warmed up since then. So the present rank is not the most meaningful number. Therefore I will also give what the ranking would be assuming the latest month’s anomaly will continue for the rest of the year. I will also indicate what is required for the rest of the year in each case to set a new record.
Note the bolded numbers for each data set where the lower bolded number is the highest anomaly recorded so far in 2012 and the higher one is the all time record so far. There is no comparison.
With the UAH anomaly for July at 0.28, the average for the first seven months of the year is (-0.089 -0.111 + 0.111 + 0.299 + 0.289 + 0.369 + 0.28)/7 = 0.164. If the average stayed this way for the rest of the year, its ranking would be 9th. This compares with the anomaly in 2011 at 0.153 to rank it 9th for that year. On the other hand, if the rest of the year averaged the July value, which is more likely if the El Nino gets stronger, then 2012 would come in at 0.212 and it would rank 5th. 1998 was the warmest at 0.428. The highest ever monthly anomalies were in February and April of 1998 when it reached 0.66. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 5 months of the year would need to be 0.80. Since this is above the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record.
With the GISS anomaly for June at 0.56, the average for the first six months of the year is (0.34 + 0.41 + 0.47 + 0.56 + 0.64 + 0.56)/6 = 0.497. This is about the same as in 2011 when it was 0.514 and ranked 9th for that year. 2010 was the warmest at 0.63. The highest ever monthly anomalies were in March of 2002 and January of 2007 when it reached 0.88. If the June anomaly continued for the rest of the year, 2012 would end up 9th. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 6 months of the year would need to be 0.76. Since this is close to the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record.
With the Hadcrut3 anomaly for June at 0.477, the average for the first six months of the year is (0.217 + 0.194 + 0.305 + 0.481 + 0.475 + 0.477)/6 = 0.358. This would rank 11th if it stayed this way. This is slightly above the anomaly in 2011 which was at 0.34 to rank it 12th for that year. 1998 was the warmest at 0.548. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 1998 when it reached 0.756. If the June anomaly continued for the rest of the year, 2012 would end up 9th. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 6 months of the year would need to be 0.738. Since this is close to the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record. One has to back to the 1940s to find the previous time that a Hadcrut3 record was not beaten in 10 years or less.
With the sea surface anomaly for June at 0.351, the average for the first six months of the year is (0.203 + 0.230 + 0.242 + 0.292 + 0.339 + 0.351)/6 = 0.276. This is about the same as in 2011 when it was 0.273 and ranked 12th for that year. 1998 was the warmest at 0.451. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in August of 1998 when it reached 0.555. If the June anomaly continued for the rest of the year, 2012 would end up 10th. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 6 months of the year would need to be 0.63. Since this is above the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record.
With the RSS anomaly for June at 0.338, the average for the first six months of the year is (-0.058 -0.121 + 0.074 + 0.333 + 0.233 + 0.338)/6 = 0.133. If the average stayed this way for the rest of the year, its ranking would be 13th. This compares with the anomaly in 2011 at 0.147 to rank it 12th for that year. 1998 was the warmest at 0.55. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.857. If the June anomaly continued for the rest of the year, 2012 would end up 8th. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 6 months of the year would need to be 0.97. Since this is above the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record.
So on all five of the above data sets, for their latest anomaly average, the 2012 average so far is close to that of 2011. If present trends continue, 2012 will be warmer than 2011, but a record is out of reach on all sets. My projection for the five sets above is that 2012 will come in from 5th to 10th.
On all data sets, the different times for a slope that is flat for all practical purposes range from 10 years and 10 months to 15 years and 7 months. Following is the longest period of time (above 10 years) where each of the data sets is more or less flat. (*For any positive slope, the exponent is no larger than 10^-5, except UAH which is 0.0018436 per year or 0.18/century up to June. The July value will not change it much. So while it is not flat, the slope is not statistically significant either.)
1. UAH: since October 2001 or 10 years, 10 months (goes to July, but note * above)
2. GISS: since May 2001 or 11 years, 2 months (goes to June)
3. Combination of the above 4: since October 2000 or 11 years, 6 months (goes to March) (Hadcrut3 is SLOW!!)
4. HadCrut3: since January 1997 or 15 years, 3 months (goes to March)
5. Sea surface temperatures: since January 1997 or 15 years, 6 months (goes to June)
6. RSS: since December 1996 or 15 years, 7 months (goes to June)
RSS is 187/204 or 91.7% of the way to Santer’s 17 years.
7. Hadcrut4: since December 2000 or 11 years, 7 months (goes to June using GISS. See below.)
See the graph below to show it all for #1 to #6.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2001.33/trend/plot/rss/from:1996.9/trend/plot/wti/from:2000.75/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1997/trend/plot/uah/from:2001.75/trend
For #7: Hadcrut4 only goes to December 2010 so what I did was get the slope of GISS from December 2000 to the end of December 2010. Then I got the slope of GISS from December 2000 to the present. The DIFFERENCE in slope was that the slope was 0.0045 lower for the total period. The positive slope for Hadcrut4 was 0.0041 from December 2000. So IF Hadcrut4 were totally up to date, and IF it then were to trend like GISS, I conclude it would show no slope for at least 11 years and 7 months going back to December 2000. (By the way, doing the same thing with Hadcrut3 gives the same end result, but GISS comes out much sooner each month.) See:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2000/to/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2000.9/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2000/plot/gistemp/from:2000.9/to:2011/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2000.9/trend
Has anyone actually put a trend line on the latest BEST study to 1750?
Tonyb
I have robustly detected a subharmonic of the terrestrial polar motion signal in southern ocean & southeast pacific SSTs. This finding came about as a side-consequence of running careful diagnostics on a 13.44 year envelope in annual timescale LOD variations that beats with the solar modulation of semi-annual terrestrial hemispheric westerly winds to yield a ~62.5 year wave. Interestingly, this framework lines up perfectly with Jupiter-Earth-Venus tidal cycles, D-O/Bond (~1470 year) Event cycles, and also gives a 205 year wave (de Vries cycle). Everything points to the coupling of evaporation & wind. I can taste the cracking of the code of ENSO itself, which is the final obstacle to decisively defeating mainstream misconception, but revelation comes on its own schedule. I humbly request serious financial assistance from anyone capable. The end of life may clock me out before I can reach revelation if I have to keep operating on such severely constrained free time & resources. It takes a fair amount of courage to ask for help this way. I have no alternatives for circumventing absolute mainstream institutional research funding prejudices.
http://i49.tinypic.com/2jg5tvr.png
http://www.globalwarmingskeptics.info/thread-1895.html
Smokey says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Open Thread! Everything off topic is now on topic!☺
==============================================================
😎 Hard to pick a favorite. 5 or 10 maybe?
Regarding click18, maybe if we’d only done 26 of those 51 things we wouldn’t be talking about CAGW now? 😎
Holy Putin!
DirkH says: “…it looks like the ever cheaper silicon PV panels have destroyed the economic basis of the Desertec technology.”
Yes, the sun is going down on thermal solar.
Mr Lynn says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Hansen is back at it!
All the ‘extreme weather’ is caused by ‘climate change’.
He really said, “It’s worse than we thought.”
Hansen is worse then we thought.
Paul Vaughan says:
August 4, 2012 at 1:09 pm
I can taste the cracking of the code of ENSO itself, which is the final obstacle to decisively defeating mainstream misconception, but revelation comes on its own schedule
As Richard Feynman once said: “the easiest one to fool is oneself”.
There is a good interview with Dr. Richard Muller of BEST fame at
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9453.
My take on it is Muller comes off very sympathetically in spite of his belief that all the warming shown in BEST is anthropogenic and that nonsense about his claim to being a recent convert from skepticism. He decries Al Gore’s gross exaggerations and errors, he doubts that current weather events can be linked to climate change and he still reviles the shenanigans of the hockey team.
Tucker was pleasant enough during the interview but reveals in his blog that he thinks he knows more about climate science than Muller. The guy sounds like a arrogant dick. He claims to be a recent convert from skepticism but as is often the case, new converts are the most extreme fanatics.
The co-interviewer, Betsy Rosenberg, came of as a scientific ignoramus with a one track mind occupied with the recent weather in the US. Dr,. Muller said that the US was only a small part of the globe and that elsewhere there was significant cooling, he mentioned the effects of ENSO and oceanic oscillations, but Rosenberg would not listen. A true “ecotard”.
JohnWho says:
August 4, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Mr Lynn says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Hansen is back at it!
All the ‘extreme weather’ is caused by ‘climate change’.
He really said, “It’s worse than we thought.”
============================================================
Now we know the source of the “wierd” in “weather wierding”.
Time to keep an eye on Ernesto?
http://flhurricane.com/images/2012/clark5latest.png
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al052012_analogs.png
Paul Vaughan
I’m sure you would stand a lot more chance of support if you could explain what the h*ck your fascinating graphs are about, in common ordinary English. They really do look fascinating but you keep shooting yourself in the foot with cryptic comments.
I am aware that certain topics here get more or less short-changed, in substantial part because they generate polarized opinions with small and diminishing amounts of factual information. I am also aware that the prime aching heartrending current need is to reclaim the integrity (and the basic science) that has been lost in Climate Science, and that in this sense, although I’ve seen unacceptable prejudice on “both” sides, EU, AO, LENR, etc really does not matter so much right now, although the proper appraisal of such subjects does belong to Science in the future – when integrity is restored.
I apologize for my own cryptic abbreviations, but those who need to understand will I trust do so. I do not want to fan the flames of topics that are, now, largely OT with regard to what Anthony and mods can cope with.
Yet I also believe that this currently necessary limit to WUWT is a limit to the breadth of its science, that I sincerely and passionately hope will, in the future, when integrity is restored, be relaxed again, and more supportive relations re-established with such as Tallbloke – which is maybe where your work would fit better for now.
Sungha Jung is a child guitar prodigy and YouTube superstar with 570 videos uploaded so far with over 500 million views. He has toured the world, played with many top finger style guitarists, has written at least 25 of his own pieces, has two CDs, played at a state dinner hosted by the South Korean President, and he’s just 15. He learns these pieces in 2 or 3 days by ear. He can play anything he decides he wants to learn. He also plays ukelele.
Smokey says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Dear Smokey,
Re: Click 2
I HATE FLIES!!!! AND MOSQUITOS!!! I wish them dead, dead, DEAD!!!
http://bugasalt.com/
No financial interest, etc.
From comic strip F-minus, Houston Chronicle June 8, 2012
http://www.gocomics.com/fminus/2012/06/08
AND NOW
just for the fun of it
CRANK IT UP!!!
OK Maybe you will like this one better.
I’ve seen a limerick posted so here’s a poem from my wife, Susan, with some of her own musings on CAGW… You’ll love it!
I’m Confused!
Now, I know that science says that global warming
is exacerbated at the hand of man
burning fossil fuels; such pitfalls cause the rising
temperature, and this is set to damn
the planet’s verdant future for poor children
who will never see a polar bear or snow.
But before I bend to conscience-pricking preaching,
there’s a few nit-picking things I need to know.
Just how is it the forecast for tomorrow
does not reflect the findings of today?
Weathermen leave summer picnics drowned in sorrow
with promises of gold, all swept away
in a flood of wishy-washy information
in shades of grey in should-have-been blue skies.
Could this be why my mind wraps round the notion
that a hundred year prediction could be lies?
So, should I spend my cash on pricy panels
that heat my home with solar energy,
thus saving our endangered, furry mammals
when the shine of sun eludes the likes of me?
And what about those planet-saving turbines
embracing wind with should-be-spinning blades,
outdone by the power of singing wind chimes
with the odd turn killing birds and bats in spades?
Should I sell my car and favour walking
without a carbon footprint to digress
from that trail of ‘Save Our Ailing World From Dying’
in the name of green, pollutant-free progress?
Now science says that nature’s out there plotting
to drop a bovine bomb, to be aware
that cows’ behinds are capable of killing –
but what if all these finds are mere hot air?
And how is it that temperatures at night time
can drop from thirty-one down to thirteen,
when in one hundred years a minor rising
of two degrees will cause the earth to scream?
Please help me, for I want to understand this
threat to every species we hold dear –
I want to know that all extorted taxes
are going to a cause that’s crystal clear.
AAIM, thanks.
My contribution: starlings. [youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XH-groCeKbE&w=560&h=315%5D
Paul Vaughan says:
August 4, 2012 at 1:09 pm
I have robustly detected a subharmonic of the terrestrial polar motion signal in southern ocean & southeast pacific SSTs………………
================
I knew someone would.