Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. draws attention today to a new study that cites Fall et al. 2011 aka the “Surfacestations Paper” that I co-authored, which was a follow up to my original surveys published in Watts 2009. The new paper is:
Martinez, C.J., Maleski, J.J., Miller, M.F, 2012: Trends in precipitation and temperature in Florida, USA. Journal of Hydrology. volume 452-453, issue , year 2012, pp. 259 – 281
They took a look at USHCN stations in Florida, and found some problems, such as trend aberrations introduced in the conversion from Cotton Region Shelters to MMTS starting in the 1980’s that aren’t fully removed by the Menne et al USHCN v2 adjustments.
Dr. Pielke writes:
they conclude in their paper
This work provides a preliminary analysis of historical trends in the climate record in the state of Florida. While this work did not attempt to fully attribute the cause of observed trends, it provides a first step in future attribution to possible causes including multidecadal climate variability, long term regional temperature trends, and potential errors caused by station siting, regional land use/land cover, and data homogenization.
We need more such detailed analyses, in order to further examine the multitude of issues with the USHCN and GHCN analyses of long term temperature and precipitation trends. Despite what is written on the NCDC website for the USHCN website; i.e. that
The U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN, Karl et al. 1990) is a high-quality moderate sized data set of monthly averaged maximum, minimum, and mean temperature and total monthly precipitation developed to assist in the detection of regional climate change.
they are really not as of as high a quality as claimed.
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At least that MMTS sensor is not black, like the sensor I photographed last year. Not only was it black, but it was located in an enclosure with air conditioning units. Geesh!
“potential errors caused by station siting, regional land use/land cover, and data homogenization.”
At least that’s getting more attention in the science
If every adjustment introduces an error, and if the adjustments are done sequentially, does not the overall adjustment process amplify errors and especially those that were introduced at the beginning of the sequence?
I was browsing the station site a while back and something puzzled me. I could not identify from the data onsite , when car parks, air conditioners, etc were installed.
An abrupt additional heat input to the vicinity of a surface station should cause a step in the temperature graph for that station, with the slope before and after the installation unchanged. Instead, my impression was that sites with air conditioners showed steeper graphs than sites without. Do air conditioners get more powerful with time?
Maybe they hired the same person that located the thermostat in my home on a wall that faces the south, allowing direct sunlight in winter months to shine its warmth upon it. Simple solution is too obvious?
In most areas where data analysis is important, there are independent audits to laid down standards. For instance in establishing the efficacy of a new pharmaceutical, the accounting information before a business is brought to the stock market, or mining exploration data.
Yet the means by which average temperatures are calculated – used to promote the biggest ever public policy – the standard; statistical method; data selection; data adjustments; and results interpretation are in the control of those who are most vigorously promoting the policies. In any other area, there would be questions about conflicts of interest.
Hey, they noticed! How robust of them!
Anthony’s original interest in temperature measuring sites has seeded a broadening interest in the scientific community.
John
A few days ago, Waterloo recorded a new high temperature record for the date of 35 C at: the newly expanded, freshly tarred airport!
Why no comments on the posting susspension announcement? I was looking forward to reading amusing speculations about what the upcomming Sunday anouncement will be.
My contribution: Watts running for president as an independent.
Entropic man says:
July 27, 2012 at 8:23 am
“An abrupt additional heat input to the vicinity of a surface station should cause a step in the temperature graph for that station, with the slope before and after the installation unchanged.”
I do not think that we should assume that installation of an air conditioner presents a change in temperature that is constant. Any temperature change that might occur depends on who is operating the air conditioner. Anthony has photos of temperature stations that are located next to air conditioners that appear to be window units in rundown garages or greasy spoons.
AGW is for sure happening in the cities but it is not because of CO2, but rather due to pavement, rooftops and exhaust and heat from furnaces, air conditioners and machinery of all kinds.
I still say the largest ignored error is the step between the point-source measurement error and the restatement thereof as the gridcell measurement error.
A single thermometer of 0.1C error does -not- provide a measurement of a gridcell with an error of 0.1C.
It’s making the step from a direct measurement to a proxy … but then calling the proxy a measurement. It just isn’t.
Entropic man, in essence as an AC unit ages it doesn’t become more powerful but does usually end up working harder. Most the reasons for this boils down to people not doing proper maintenance on units so they lose effeciency.
Watt’s Up With That?
Suspending the blog?
This is deliciously intriguing……
I smell something humorous but we’ll see.
Ah, I hope Anthony isn’t abandoning blogging. 🙁
I confess I haven’t visited here or commented much at WUWT in the past year. But mostly that’s because global warming has become such a joke, it’s hard to believe anyone dogmatically believes in CAGW anymore.
BH has a post up for discussion of what are the possibilities wrt what Anthony will reveal @ur momisugly WUWT at ~noon (PDT) on Sunday, July 29.
John
“Do air conditioners get more powerful with time?”
========
Depends on if the air conditioning units all get installed at the same time.
Additionally, in many instances, the AC unit is just one instance of bad siting. Not every thing is changed at once.
Entropic man says:
July 27, 2012 at 8:23 am
I was browsing the station site a while back and something puzzled me. I could not identify from the data onsite , when car parks, air conditioners, etc were installed.
An abrupt additional heat input to the vicinity of a surface station should cause a step in the temperature graph for that station, with the slope before and after the installation unchanged. Instead, my impression was that sites with air conditioners showed steeper graphs than sites without. Do air conditioners get more powerful with time?
_______________________________
Day to day temp data is “noisy” to begin with. The effect of an A/C unit or black top or car emissions would not be a constant but would also be sporadic. Urbanization normally does not occur over night but over a period of time.
Here are two near by stations, one an airport and some other stations plus the Atlantic SST.
The city is on the North Carolina/Virgina border and right on the ocean. Take a look at the city vs the airport! Norfolk City and
Norfolk International Airport
North to south thru the middle of the state of NC
North – Raleigh NC
Chapel Hill which is just west of Raleigh.
Large city in the middle of NC – Fayetteville NC
South – Lumberton NC
Other Coastal Cities:
North – Elisabeth City
South – Wilmington NC
Rural
North – Louisburg
North – Louisburg
South – Southport
South – Southport
Here is the raw 1856 to current Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Amazing how the temperatures follow the Atlantic ocean oscillation as long as the weather station is not sitting at an airport isn’t it?
Theo Goodwin says:
July 27, 2012 at 10:03 am
“I do not think that we should assume that installation of an air conditioner presents a change in temperature that is constant.”
Fair enough. A greasy spoon just opening would produce an upward step , followed by a decline in average temperature at the site as it gradually ran down again.
Perhaps someone familiar with the station website could link graphs illustrating the effect of installing an air conditioner, and the effect of different patterns of air conditioner use, on the temperature record of the sites alongside.
I believe most new heat records are due to the UHI and improper heat sensors.
I hope Anthony’s health is good! Please set up comments for this ‘suspension’.
Anyone want to lay down bets as to what the announcement will be?
Oh, come on now, Anthony… “high” is relatively. Anything above absolute junk could be “high-quality.” And in the case of HCN, well, that might be what we’ve got, something better than junk.
Perhaps FOIA’s password for the Climategate 3.0 leak has been ‘guessed’ (i.e. brute force discovered)? Was in “Mann Handled” spelled backwards? Was in “Penn State Hockey same as Penn State Football” spelled backwards? with or without spaces?
Perhaps Heartland has settled out of court with confessed interstate identity thief Peter Gleick? The out-of-court Fakegate settlement being: read a court approved apology aloud at next Heartland conference, engage in a vigorous intellectual 3-hour long debate against someone of equal/greater credentials, pay his own way to/from the Heartland conference?
Has WUWT been hacked I wonder?