The rise and fall of Al Gore and Global Warming

I noticed with my morning coffee that Tom Nelson had a Google Trends graph that piqued my interest, so I decided to expand upon it a bit before getting back to work. After looking at my results, the title of this post could just as easily be “off the radar”. Have a look:

Source: Google Trends

You can clearly see when An Inconvenient Truth was released, the 2007 IPCC report and subsequent Nobel prize, and when Climategate occurred. That Gore blip in the summer of 2010 was the “Sex Poodle” episode.

Here’s a similar graph with the maximum number of relevant phrases plotted, along with some news items that mark the timeline:

Source: Google Trends

Head of UN panel blasts ‘Climategate’ affair
Ottawa Citizen – Dec 7 2009
‘Climategate’ inquiry shows scientist didn’t falsify data
Vancouver Sun – Feb 3 2010
‘Climategate’ inquiry mostly vindicates scientists
Huffington Post – Jul 7 2010
British academics win right to temperature data held by university at center of ‘Climategate’
Washington Post – Jul 1 2011
More ‘Climategate’ emails leaked
TheChronicleHerald.ca – Nov 23 2011
UK police close ‘Climategate’ investigation
Hindustan Times – Jul 18 2012

Here’s one I found amusing. Like an EKG heartbeat (in red), we have the yearly heatwaves in the NH summer garnering more interest. But most interestingly, when the seasonal interest turns to heat waves, global warming takes a dip each time.

Source: Google Trends

This suggests to me that the global searching public isn’t connecting heat waves to “global warming” as some journalists, bloggers, and activists would like you to do.

Messaging FAIL.

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50 thoughts on “The rise and fall of Al Gore and Global Warming

  1. But as soon as they find a link they like related to heat wave and click on it, they are likely to go to an article that includes global warming, climate change, etc. many times in the heat wave story. Until journalists stop being fooled, the association will constantly be brought up.

  2. This kind of analysis will miss various aspects of the debate when terms and meaning of terms change, such as global warming, climate change, disruption, etc. Such reframing of terms is probably detrimental to the argument from the side promoting those changes.

  3. OT, sort of. In hot weather I get more hits on my Blizzard of ’78 web page http://wermenh.com/blizz78.html . I’m not sure if it’s interest in any sort of extreme weather peaks in extreme weather, or if interest in cold weather relief is the attraction. Or perhaps people are just hiding inside and reading weather stuff in general.

  4. Bill says~ ‘When journalists stop being fooled’…
    ——-

    Oj, I agree that some of them are fooled. But I (might) bet that Most of them have a pretty good idea what the real story is, and don’t really give a hydro dam.

    As to algor, I hate to say it but an entire generation has been raised to be fooled and fools, andit may well be the 2030s before even a large minority of people come to regard his ilk as the *swindlers that they are, let alone get people into power who will DO something to put these *bastards away. In the meantime, things are going to get a lot worse for everyone, thanks to algor and Co.

    *Mods, feel free to snip / replace those two words, if you feel that was a bit too much.

  5. “Here’s one I found amusing. Like an EKG heartbeat (in red), we have the yearly heatwaves in the NH summer garnering more interest. But most interestingly, when the seasonal interest turns to heat waves, global warming takes a dip each time.”

    Just recently I looked at google trends for “socialism”, “capitalism” etc… I noticed similar drops in summer. Now, there’s no obvious reason why that should be the case. I think that Google does not normalize or seasonally detrend its search volume, and the drop in midsummer simply correlates to people spending less time in front of their computers and more time outdoors.

  6. It looks like the Australian capital is the number one ranked city for climate alarmism based on search volume for “climate change”:

    1. Canberra, Australia
    2. Adelaide, Australia
    3. Sydney, Australia
    4. Brisbane, Australia
    5. Perth, Australia
    6. Manila, Philippines
    7. Melbourne, Australia
    8. Washington, DC, USA
    9. Auckland, New Zealand
    10. Edinburgh, United Kingdom

    But why? Searching on the term “carbon trading” could shed some light:

    1. Canberra, Australia
    2. Nairobi, Kenya
    3. Sydney, Australia
    4. Adelaide, Australia
    5. Perth, Australia
    6. Brisbane, Australia
    7. Melbourne, Australia
    8. Mumbai, India
    9. New Delhi, India
    10. Singapore, Singapore

    Huh? Why did the people of Nairobi suddenly become so interested in carbon trading? This could be why:

    http://thecitizen.co.tz/magazines/31-business-week/9512-kenya-opens-carbon-exchange-for-africans-to-earn-dividends.html

    Hmmm, interesting. So which cities are the most interested in the search term “carbon credits”?

    1. Mahape, India
    2. Mumbai, India
    3. Auckland, New Zealand
    4. Johannesburg, South Africa
    5. New Delhi, India
    6. Chennai, India
    7. Sydney, Australia
    8. Brisbane, Australia
    9. Vancouver, Canada
    10. Melbourne, Australia

    Okay. So why are Indians so interested in carbon credits? Oh yeah…

    http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110927/full/477517a.html

    “What has leaked just confirms our view that in its present form the CDM is basically a farce,” says Eva Filzmoser, programme director of CDM Watch, a Brussels-based watchdog organization. The revelations imply that millions of tonnes of claimed reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions are mere phantoms, she says, and potentially cast doubt over the principle of carbon trading. “In the face of these comments it is no wonder that the United States has backed away from emission trading,” Filzmoser says.

    The cable, written on 16 July 2008, was sent by the US consulate in Mumbai, India, to the US secretary of state, and summarizes a discussion of the CDM involving representatives of the consulate and the US Government Accountability Office, along with Indian officials and executives of large Indian companies. At the time, 346 Indian projects had been registered with the CDM’s executive board. Today, more than 720 Indian projects have been approved and have gained some 120 million tonnes’ worth of carbon credits, a large fraction of the 750 million tonnes issued since 2005.

    I think we’ve gone far enough down the climate change rabbit hole… for now.

  7. “This suggests to me that the global searching public isn’t connecting heat waves to “global warming””.

    Well, there will be no “global search public” because there is no global heatwave. It has been raining more or less continously all spring, and all summer, here in Norway, in 2012. On the contrary. And when there are clouds, it is cold. Like right now.

  8. Journalists are all left wing. Why? They like big government. In Canada that is because they are paid by the government (CBC) I am sure the same in the UK, not sure about the US or Australia but the world over, most national papers are left wing.

  9. I noticed that every year from 2004 – 2012 there is an up tick in the “heat wave” graph during the Norhern Hemisphere’s summer. I wonder if I could get a grant to study this anomaly.

  10. Speaking of Gore, I have really been looking hard at both Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren’s 70s and 80s work since I wrote this piece on the Julian Simon/Ehrlich wager: http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/learning-to-learn-or-how-to-replace-old-minds-with-sustainable-new-ones/
    It explains how Ehrlich and Gore are consistently wrong on the facts but it is their desire for new minds and a new way of thinking and view of science being implemented via US DoED policies, National Research Council edicts, and National Science Foundation. Holdren is certainly making the most of his post as Science Czar.

    As part of the research into that post I read Stuart Hart’s Capitalism at the Crossroads which turned out not to pass my smell test of accurate facts for its view of an economy rebuilt around sustainability.

    Guess who wrote the Preface for the June 2010 Third Edition? Gore. He says he and his partners at “Generation Investment Management believe that sustainability will be a key driver of global economic change over the next 50 years.”

    So he’s really confessing to wanting 50 years of the certain revenue from a politically directed and managed economy. The ultimate confession that this sustainability nonsense is really Crony Capitalism and a desire to make most of us malleable and subservient and incapable of genuine innovation that would upset all this planned Corporatism.

  11. Bill said:
    July 22, 2012 at 8:45 am
    Until journalists stop being fooled, the association will constantly be brought up.
    ———————————————–
    They are not being fooled, they are complicit.

  12. From the “Sex Poodle” link:
    Suspecting that the stains were Gore bodily fluids, the woman made sure not to clean them.
    ———————————————-
    “Gore bodily fluids” – EEWWWWWWWW!!!

  13. I realize I’ve been making a little mistake lately, just out of sucumbing to a misplaced sense that that is now the correct terminology, I’ve started to refer to global warming as climate change. That’s a mistake because the warmists are trying to say that it’s not about warming. Well, lets not help them out with that goal. If there’s no warming, their theory is bogus. (Even if there is warming, their theory is still bogus. But that’s another matter.) So lets keep calling it “global warming,” not climate change.

  14. Anthony, Can you not see? Now they can retreat into the shadows because they have won the battle. The hearts and minds have been captured by Gore and his allies. The MSM and all the Official Bodies, such as AAS AGU Royal Soc,,,, are carrying on the battlle for “The Cause”. Pachauri still reigns. Algor can retire in comfort, knowing that he has succeeded.

  15. Although I do not have graphs, for several years I have the impression that (besides sales figures of ice cream) the number of global warming articles in my newspaper is a good proxy for temperature.

  16. Eric Simpson wrote:

    “the warmists are trying to say that it’s not about warming … lets keep calling it “global warming,” not climate change.”

    Agreed.

    The change in language was deliberate and orchestrated.

    Words are weapons. David Fenton, chief spin-meister of global warming and much else, claims to have established the use of “progressive” to describe the left. So that if you are against “progressive” policies it makes you look as if you are against progress. This is one of his claims that I actually believe.

    I have been using “warmist” in my posts but have begun to reconsider.

    If we call them “warmists” then it implies that we believe that there has been no warming. This is how skeptics are portrayed. The issue is not whether the earth has warmed, it has, or whether it will warm more, it very possibly will. The issues are how much will it warm, what effect it will have, how much is man responsible and are any efforts to mitigate warming necessary or cost-effective.

    The one thing that is consistent about the “warmist” camp’s use of the terms “global warming” and “climate change” is their prophecy of catastrophe. I think we should call them “catastrophists” same as we use CAGW. It is more accurate and better counters their propaganda word games.

  17. To David Ross,
    Very good point. We should not let the left define the language in this existential contest. Another label for them might be “Climate Alarmists”.

  18. @David Ross. I get your point on the downside to using “warmist.” Perhaps alarmist then is a better all-purpose synonym. Here is some synonyms for alarmists. But, of course, depending on the situation, they should be used with discretion and only when appropriate [as “fascists” only when referring to demonstrated fascist inclinations as in the notorious exploding heads video, or use synonyms that imply deception only when it is clear that that is what they are doing (and the Climategate evidence shows that the fear-mongering Chicken Littles do in fact often deliberately lie or be at best disingenuous)], here’s a short “thesaurus style” list (for reference) of synonyms for alarmists:
    Well, first a disclaimer: sometimes these “harsh” epithets all together at once seems fulsome, but we use these individually without issue, and remember the Alinsky tactics of “ridicule the opposition” employed by Obama & leftists, and the incredible disrespect that they show to us daily by continuing, despite our objections, to call us Deniers (associated with Holocaust, in case we forget) …

    Chicken Littles, Prophets of Doom, doomsayers, doom and gloomers, Cry Wolfers, Mumbo Jumbo Specialists, [mix and match {as "econuts"}: eco- enviro- climate- .. -clowns -nuts -deceivers -extremists -radicals -loons -fascists -freaks -tyrants -dictators], fear- or scare- mongers, bs artists, [peddler or purveyors of: -bs -propaganda -deception -fear -mumbo jumbo -baloney -idiocy], leftists, masters of deception, propagandists, Orwellian double-talkers.

  19. David Ross says:
    July 22, 2012 at 1:55 pm
    Eric Simpson wrote:

    “the warmists are trying to say that it’s not about warming … lets keep calling it “global warming,” not climate change.”

    Agreed.

    =======================================================
    With “Global Warming” they planted the idea that it’s somehow Man’s fault and we need to give power to men who say they know how to fix it. (I almost made a typo “fox it”. Maybe I should have left it?)
    Hansen’s predictions and Mann’s musings were it’s foundation.
    People were noticing Hansen’s predictions weren’t happening. McIntyre and others defused Mann’s musings. Those who were gaining authority (Hi, UN!) and money (Hi, Al!) from the scare needed to keep it alive. Hence the multiple changes in terminology.
    The changes can be compared to fishing. Any fisherman knows that once you’ve hooked a fish, you raise or lower the rod, reel in or let the drag do its thing; whatever is needed to keep the fish on the hook. When and if CAGW no longer works, in other words, we get off that hook, the ones who lust for power will just switch baits.
    (Whatever happened to Al Gore’s ozone hole?)

  20. “That Gore blip in the summer of 2010 was the “Sex Poodle” episode.”
    ***
    Refresh my memory: Was Al described as a crazed sex poodle or a sex crazed poodle? Either way, the vision brought to mind is a yappy little poodle, too small to even soil a girl’s blue dress. On the other hand……..

    I seems to me that Saul Alinsky’s method included targeting, and marginalizing an opponent. It would include trivializing and ridiculing him. In this case, it is just too easy. A better target would be the individuals who believe in Al.

    Regards,
    Steamboat Jack (Jon Jewett’s evil twin)

  21. On retreating into the shadows, please do not forget the Degrowth conferences.http://www.venezia2012.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/DEGROWTH-CONFERENCE-VENICE-short1.pdf is the flyer for the one coming up in September in Venice.

    The initial conference was in Paris in 2008 and then Barcelona in 2010. There was also a Degrowth in the Americas conference in Montreal in May. This is the Ehrlich vision of actually shrinking the economy to be “sustainable.” It’s also consistent with what the new economics foundation is pushing in the UK and the Line of Plenty arguments we are seeing surrounding the shift to Prosperity without Growth by pushing collective well-being. Tim Jackson is also a proponent with his “I am because we are” view of future prosperity.

    It is also reflected in that UN World Happiness Report initiated in 2012.

  22. OK, The relative quantities on the Ordinate are obvious, But what do the numerical values measure? Or am I just too dense?

  23. @Eric Simpson….I love your listing of synonyms & your post in general (July 22, 2012 @ 2:49 pm)

    Chicken Littles, Prophets of Doom, doomsayers, doom and gloomers, Cry Wolfers, Mumbo Jumbo Specialists, [mix and match {as "econuts"}: eco- enviro- climate- .. -clowns -nuts -deceivers -extremists -radicals -loons -fascists -freaks -tyrants -dictators], fear- or scare- mongers, bs artists, [peddler or purveyors of: -bs -propaganda -deception -fear -mumbo jumbo -baloney -idiocy], leftists, masters of deception, propagandists, Orwellian double-talkers.

    I’d like to add a few of my own, having worked as a consultant in the carbon credit/CDM space:

    Carbon Hucksters, Fart Chasers, Credit Privateers, Bean-Counting Idiots, They-Who-Own-Worthless-Paper, Chicago Climate Expunge, Methane Mafia, “The Gang Who Couldn’t Mitigate Straight,” Additionality Buffoons, No Cents Left, Kyoto Con-Men, Joint Implementation Imbeciles, etc.

    BTW, I take exception to you slandering the good reputation of Chicken Little!! Cheers!

  24. Eric Simpson says:
    July 22, 2012 at 2:49 pm

    @David Ross. I get your point on the downside to using “warmist.” Perhaps alarmist then is a better all-purpose synonym.

    ‘Alarmist/alarmism’ has already been captured by the CAGW crowd, notably the Australian Labor Government, in describing those who are against our recent Voldemort tax (the tax that cannot be named). A Google search of ‘Gillard Abbott alarmist’ reveals its use by both politicians and the MSM such as:

    “It should be possible to sell Julia Gillard’s climate change package to voters. Despite Tony Abbott’s alarmist claims, it can be portrayed as a good news story.” – Laurie Oakes in The Punch

    “Climate Change Minister Greg Combet attacked Mr Abbott as alarmist, while Craig Emerson held a conference in the South Australian town of Whyalla, which Mr Abbott had predicted would be wiped out because the tax would hit the steelworks.”

    The reason for the tax, such as sea level rises, heat waves, droughts, floods and plagues of toads is not considered to be alarmist but outlining the effects of the tax on the Australian economy are.

  25. In response to alan, Eric Simpson and John Trigge

    Alarmists would be my second choice after catastrophists. I still lean towards catastrophists despite its somewhat cumbersome length. It has the necessary gravitas.

    Alarmist isn’t quite strong enough. It doesn’t capture the ‘sky-is-falling’ mentality of the people we wish to describe. They are prophesizing plagues and calamities beyond Biblical proportions.

    But using stronger or more colourful terms like
    Chicken Littles,
    Prophets of Doom,
    doomsayers ,

    climate armageddonists,
    thermogeddonists,
    millenarianists,
    sounds like we are trivializing the issue or dismissing it without consideration.

    Maybe its best we use both, as best fits the situation and including within the same articles. A good writer makes use of synonyms to avoid too much repetition. Whichever is used, the important point is to shift the emphasis from warming to alarm/catastrophe.

  26. “Onlyme” suggested “Climate Cassandras.”
    That’s a better term than “warmist”!
    Warmist is too broad, as it includes non-alarmists.
    “Alarmist” is too accusatory–it prejudges the case, implying the other side is wrong.
    “Cassandra” is just right, as the ancient Cassandra was correct, but subsequent doomsters who see themselves as “Cassandra’s” are ego-driven and have a bad track record.
    (Just remember to spell it with doubled S’s.)

    John West suggested “calamitology.”

    Jorgekafkazar suggested “Climatologers.”

    Mike Bomley suggested “CliSciFi”

    Rick Werme suggested “GWAPers? (Global Warming Alarmism Promoters)”

    Kurt in Switzerland suggested “the Climate Clergy”

    Wayne suggested “Carbochondriacs”

    Mr. Lynn suggested “Carbochophobiacs”

    Smokey suggested “carbon cranks”

    I suggested “swarmists”, “Warm Warriors,” “Climeballs,” and CACA Cult (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Arlarmism)

    Unknown suggested “Hothead”

    WUWT announced, after a poll, that “Irritable Climate Syndrome” . . . Wins with 23% of the vote, with ‘Climageddon’ (13%) and ‘Climate Derangement’ (12%) as runners-up out of 2,734 votes.

  27. But most interestingly, when the seasonal interest turns to heat waves, global warming takes a dip each time.

    Looks like you’ve fallen for the “Al Gore” fallacy, of assuming that CO2 lead temperature changes instead of followed.

    In this case, the heat wave clearly follows the drop in global warming interest by some weeks. I’ve not a clue what to infer from that ;(

  28. steveta_uk says:
    July 22, 2012 at 11:47 pm
    In this case, the heat wave clearly follows the drop in global warming interest by some weeks. I’ve not a clue what to infer from that ;(

    Looking closely at the graphs, there is a dip in global warming searches in the summer usually. And indeed often the dip in global warming searches actually does start slightly before the summer heat wave.

    Why? Kids are not in school.

    summer starts -> school is out -> heat wave occurs later (as heat waves occur in the summer)

    As always, one must be careful on correlation versus causation, but other indicators suggest that a lot of global warming search traffic is from schoolkids.

    With a little convenient repetition from my July 19th post elsewhere:

    If one looks at the pattern in views per day of the (biased and dishonest) Wikipedia global warming article and compares to that of many other articles on Wikipedia, there is a very strong pattern of particularly higher weekday than weekend activity for the former. From that, one may deduce how many (most) of the around 0.4 million views per month of it (around 5 million a year) are from many of today’s kids getting it directly or indirectly in school assignments on weekdays, as part of propaganda-pushing in much of the educational system as well as the “mainstream” media.

    For instance, contrast the utterly different shapes of the viewership curves in http://stats.grok.se/en/201205/Global_warming versus http://stats.grok.se/en/201205/Space_colonization where the former implicitly shows it is what schoolkids are being taught about as our future, more so in fact than in intrinsic interest of the average person. (Although some do assignments as homework on weekends, in general weekday viewing is less likely than weekend viewing to be recreational and not as likely to be someone’s own independent initiative).

    Possibly the attempt to ascribe summer heat waves to global warming may indeed backfire (if enough people notice the bias versus how cold events are reported), but such is not particularly directly shown by the google trends graphs if so.

    The overall decline in global warming search traffic over the years is a good sign, though. The “cry wolf” effect still exists.

  29. I have pointed out to Warmists time and again that the more they scream about heat waves likely caused by global warming the more the public tunes out. I recall a media study that showed how people changed TV channels every time a global warming story came up. People are suffering from decades of fear fatigue over a non-problem. In any case there is nothing we can do realistically do about it if it were a problem.

  30. Actually the high point of the summer 2010 blip on Al Gore searches is when he and Tipper announced they were splitting up. The sex poodle incident happened a few weeks later and is the second, much lower spike during that summer.

  31. This suggests to me that the global searching public isn’t connecting heat waves to “global warming” as some journalists, bloggers, and activists would like you to do.
    ————
    Well a politico is bound to think in terms of plots and schemes and messaging.

    To underline a possible fail in imagination here is an alternative spin. Immediately after a heat wave there is a strong increase in interest in global warming. Is it true? Beats me correlation is not causation.

    But why the heck is there a correlation at all?

  32. Let’s not get carried away just yet. I think there’s another possible explanation for the drop in profile – the Warmists don’t need to try any more, noting that governments across the world are hooked and not listening to opposing views.

  33. Unfortunately the damage is already done. The wacko socialist gained enough momentum to get their controls in place through the EPA’s rules and regulations which are absent any legal basis. The control and destruction of America will continue until there is an uprising. Hopefully that will come about after the elections when the Socialists/Communist are taken out of power.

  34. Quick switch here on Canada’s Left Coast from heat wave (almost 80°F for a day or two!!) to cold wave (highs of ~62°F for a few days).

    Ahh, waves bedammed. It’s variable weather, and running rather cooler than we’re used to. Period.

  35. There will come a time when people will say…Oh, you’re one of those idiots who still believe in man-made global warming. Aahahahahahahaha.

  36. It’s largely the Republican Party’s fault. If they hadn’t stolen the election, Gore would have become U.S. President. He would have been in a position where he couldn’t do much harm, and felt no need to compensate by peddling Global Warming.

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