Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
In the process of writing my piece about Lisa Jackson and the EPA, I got to reading about the EPA passing new mercury regulations. Their regulations are supposed to save the lives of some 11,000 people per year. So I figured I should learn something about mercury. It turned out to be quite surprising … here was my first surprise:
Figure 1. Natural and anthropogenic sources of atmospheric mercury emissions. About 7,500 tonnes of mercury are emitted into the atmosphere each year. Named countries show anthropogenic (human caused) emissions for that country.
My first surprise was that far and away the largest emitter of atmospheric mercury is the ocean. The ocean? I’d never have guessed that. Other huge emitters are various lightly vegetated land areas. In addition, forests, volcanoes, and geothermal vents are significant emitters … which is the reason for my new religious crusade:
So … what are the anthropogenic sources of mercury emissions, and how much of those are emitted from North America? Figure 2 shows those values:
Figure 2. North American emissions versus the rest of the world.
As you can see, North America is not doing well at all in the mercury emission sweepstakes. The rest of the world is busting our chops, easily out-emitting us in all categories. We’ve fallen way, way behind, the Chinese are kicking our emissionary fundament-als. Not only that, but the residence time for mercury in the atmosphere is about a year, so they get our mercury … but we also get theirs …
Now, the “stationary combustion” figures are what the EPA is targeting with their new restrictions. Those are mostly the coal-fired power plants. So let’s see how much of the global emissions are caused by US power plants:
Figure 3. US power plant mercury emissions, and emissions from all other sources.
As you can see, the US power plants emit less than 1% of the global mercury emissions. Even if the EPA could get rid of every US coal plant, it will not make a measurable difference in the atmospheric mercury.
Now, here comes the fun part. The new EPA regulations will not cut out all the mercury from US power plants. We’re already pretty efficient at removing mercury, and each additional reduction comes with more difficulty.
So let’s assume that the EPA regs will cut out 25 tonnes of mercury per year. This is supposed to save 11,000 lives every year. So that means if we could wave a magical wand and cut out all of the mercury, 100 percent of it, we should expect to save about 11,000 times 7500/25 = 11,000 times 300 = 3,300,000 lives saved every year … and if you believe that three million people die every year from mercury poisoning, you too could get a job with the EPA.
That’s the thing about facts. As Homer Simpson says,
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that’s even remotely true!
w.
All data from N. Pirrone et al., Global mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic and natural sources, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2010
For further reading, see Willie Soon’s excellent analysis of the EPA “science” on which they have based their mercury findings.
[UPDATE] To better illustrate the total natural and anthropogenic mercury emissions, here is a different version of the same data shown in Figure 1.
Natural sources account for about 70% of the world’s total mercury emissions.
w.
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The EPA doesn’t need all that sciencey stuff…they have Gaia. Faith always trumps that hard thinking stuff.
Someone might think that ,really, the environment has nothing to do with these regulations.
It’s about power, money and power.
The regs cover…mercury, arsenic, acid gas, nickel, selenium and cyanides, not just mercury.
You cannot ‘assume’ 25 tonnes of mercury equates to 11,000 deaths prevented….I cannot find the amount the EPA expects the regs to remove from the environment, maybe you have some numbers………..
Willis:
If you get a second, you should mention that compact fluorescent lights (CFL’s) contain about 4 milligrams (mg) of mercury. If we assume one broken bulb per household at 114,235,996 households in the US, that is 0.46 tonnes of mercury per year or 0.71% of the US total. If the EPA is successful in cutting emissions by 25 tonnes, this percentage increases to 1.2%. Hence CFL’s will then contribute as much of the US mercury as the US contributes to overall mercury. We should ban them.
Note that vaccines are something the UN wants to ban.
These guys:
http://www.unep.org/hazardoussubstances/Mercury/Negotiations/INC3/tabid/3469/Default.aspx
(hope that cut and paste of the link worked!)
References:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=cfls.pr_cfls_mercury
Cheers
JE
OK. So – I’m curious…the EPA wants to decrease mercury entering the environment, right? But, in the next year or so, we’ll all be having to use CFL bulbs, at about 5 mg mercury each.
Has anyone calculated how much mercury these will spill into the environment as they are thrown away? I know they are supposed to be recycled, but doubt seriously how effective that will be.
At 20 of these things per household, that’s 100 mg. Multiply that by the number of households in the US or North America, and how many tonnes are estimated?
Anyone?
Mercury is a genuine and serious pollutant. If EPA would confine itself to controlling genuine and serious pollutants like this, I wouldn’t have any problem with them.
It’s the other nonsense about carbon and biodiversity that makes them dangerous and requires the agency to be abolished. (After a bureaucracy tastes blood, there’s no way to take it back to sanity.)
Thank you Willis for a well presented article. Those of us who live in States in the USA already knew how little mercury is emitted. Hopefully, more will know and understand this now.
Silly, really that they’ll reduce power plant emissions but required to use them in our homes where, if broken, we’ll get a lung full of it. Praying for Obama to loose so that this extremist Jackson gets canned.
It’s pretty obvious that the current Administration is anti-military… but that doesn’t stop them from adopting military tactics. What I see them doing is employing a classical pincer movement whereby coal fired energy production is being attacked from multiple directions with CO2/global warming being the primary thrust (at least for now) and the other flank being attacked through their efforts concerning mercury pollution (for now). I’m sure that they have other things waiting in the wings…
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings and commented:
Willis Eschenbach on Mercury poisoned EPA regs.
Also see:
Volcano ‘Pollution’ Solves Mercury Mystery @ur momisugly
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080629081932.htm
If the moderators will allow it, I’ll recycle most of a comment I made last December when I also found out how shockingly low the US power plant emissions were.
===
Now compare that to this April 07, 2011 newspaper account of a growing Hg contamination issue:
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/07/business/la-fi-lightbulb-mercury-20110407
I continually find this issue obfuscated by claims that the energy savings lead to reduced demand on coal-fired electric plants yielding less Hg emissions at those plants. To wit:
Some claims are even more extreme:
http://www.helplightnj.com/about/do-your-part-recycle-spent-cfl-bulbs/
Strangely enough, this claim does not factor in the Hg emissions from any coal-fired energy sources for the energy used in manufacturing and recycling CFL’s, let alone the Hg emissions from obtaining the Hg and manufacturing process releases. The 70% can be figured by a Nov 2010 EPA document (fine print says it’s a “living document” subject to change):
http://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/promotions/change_light/downloads/Fact_Sheet_Mercury.pdf
Which makes an amazing claim:
This allows them to significantly downgrade their estimate of Hg released. And they are also not mentioning the Hg emissions related to manufacturing, and recycling including recovering the Hg from the toxic glass, if possible. Since the EPA thinks 89% of the Hg will stay forever bound to the glass in a landfill, it must take a lot of energy to liberate the Hg when recycling. Looks like there may be even more Hg released by recycling than just chucking them into a landfill.
So the EPA wants to regulate out of existence the coal-fired power plants that release only a relatively tiny bit of worldwide Hg emissions. But they want us to use CFL’s while being less than precise about the Hg emissions involved. And if you’re really worried about those coal-fired power plant emissions, ask yourself this: Which gives you a more severe exposure to Hg, those plant emissions spread out across the map, or a single CFL broken in your house? With EPA recommendations of ventilating a room for several hours with outdoor air after breaking a CFL, the answer should be obvious.
They should really be renamed the EPR, the Environmental Protection Racket
These people made up their minds a long time ago that they do not like the use of cheap energy be it coal, oil, or nuclear. If they can’t use mercury as the excuse, they will invent a reason to ban cheap energy even if they have to demonize plant food to do it. Cheap energy means prosperity, prosperity means an expanding human population, and having to share this planet with an ever increasing hoard of human “infestation” is the last thing they want.
Clearly the EPA needs to ban China, oh wait we’ve “outsourced” all our manufacturing there what will we do? “only take what you need to survive” – Spaceballs the movie – ahead of its time in so many ways The inspiration for the whole environmental movement..
Some person in a previous thread remarked that a plastic shopping bag full of old CFLs inadvertantly “dropped” in your local legislative building contains enough mercury to trigger an evacuation of the building and a full HAZMAT response. Democracy at work.
Our newish Conservative government, here in Canada, has shelved the phase out of incandescants even though they have all been pulled from our local stores (????). Ive got a closet stuffed with em and as the old softee Charlton Heston remarked they’ll have to – gently and slowly – pry my incandescents from my cold dead hands. If you check out Charltons’ quote he aims it at Mr. Gore – wow that guy is into everything – but was referring to another environmental hazard.
Yep, another example of “because we can measure it we must use that to model the world into our vision of how it should be.” The usual dogma, from the usual demigods, selling another false theology. I’m not sure what is worst the false theologies of the present and past or these new ones.
Actually, I think mercury is a serious problem with modern civilization. Whether or not the measures intended to control it are or are not likely to be effective, mercury is a very bad molecule to be carrying around in your body. However, the problem isn’t elemental mercury — you could drink a cup full of liquid mercury and suffer very little in the way of side effects (and people used to do just this back when they were searching for medicines, read Stephenson’s “Quicksilver” in the Baroque Cycle) — it is mercury compounds, in particular (IIRC) methyl mercury and mercuric cyanide. Mercury vapor isn’t good for you, but it is unusual to build up a vapor concentration that is dangerous — it needs spilled mercury in a closed warm room sitting a long time with little circulation to get an equilibrium vapor pressure with potential toxicity — even releasing the mercury vapor in a fluorescent bulb only makes the air around it moderately toxic for a few minutes.
Methyl mercury is a very bad actor — produced by bacteria, toxic enough to kill you if a single drop gets on your skin, and the cyanic variants are just as bad. Mercury has a rather long half life in the body, concentrating in fatty tissue in things like the liver. It acts among other ways as an oxidant, damaging cellular DNA. The body doesn’t like heavy metals, and mercury probably beats out lead as being a heavy metal it doesn’t like. You can read about mercury objectively here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercury_poisoning
One of the problems with mercury is that it does not remain uniformly diluted at harmless concentrations. Once aerosolized from e.g. the burning of coal, it falls as rain into waterways, is transformed by bacteria into methyl mercury and related organic forms, is eaten by the things that eat the bacteria and starts making its way up the food chain, concentrating as it goes. In particular, it concentrates in top of the food chain fish. As a fisherman, I totally appreciate that because nearly any large fish I fish for has measurable concentration of mercury in its flesh.
This too isn’t uniform. In Eastern NC they used to make paper. Paper mills used liquid mercury to electrolyze salt into chlorine to bleach the paper. One mill in particular went out of business — they just went bankrupt and the owners walked away, leaving the whole thing to moulder including the mercury pits. Forty years passed, and the mercury vats corroded through, and tons of mercury literally poured out onto the swampy ground. When this was finally discovered — we’re talking rural and stuck out on a back road where nobody ever went but occasional deer hunters — the ground near the plant was so saturated that mercury would ooze up out of the mud when investigators walked towards the buildings.
Mercury in contact with ground = active source of methyl mercury operating over years, with the methyl mercury leaching into groundwater and down into the nearby (IIRC) Neuse River and thence down to the NC sounds and the sea. Predators like catfish and bass taken near the plant were horribly toxic and probably did kill a lot of people (decades later) with cancer and various linked diseases and disorders — it doesn’t act quickly but it acts; elevated levels of mercury were evident in fish sampled all the way down to and out in the ocean. It took years and lots of state money to clean it up (because the original owners were all dead and the heirs didn’t even know they had a problem and had no money anyway).
Another place where the problem is evident is the Great Lakes. Visit Michigan’s DNR website and look over it’s recommendations on eating fish taken from the Great Lakes — no more than one meal of fish a month (and none for pregnant women) because the fish are so damn toxic with cumulated mercury and PCBs. Certain fish (e.g. catfish) they suggest not eating at all. Certain places (e.g. Saginaw Bay) those of us who sometimes fished there knew better than to keep fish — Saginaw is surrounded by industries and has a far higher concentration of mercury and PCBs than the average, even for the Great Lakes. They are trying to clean them up, but it takes decades of regulation and elimination of new sources to drop the concentrations to where things get better, and it will probably be 2100 before fish taken there are anything close to safe to eat in quantity.
Mercury will, given enough time, flush out even of the oceans — methyl mercury from the mercury we are ADDING to the ocean every year will enter the food chain and eventually make its way to the bottom to build up in the rain of silt that is eventually subducted and a few hundred million years from now reforged into rock. There are doubtless natural sources — leaching out of mercury ores (cinnabar) in rivers and the like — but we (humans) are by far the biggest source of mercury, and we do not distribute that mercury at all evenly and the biosphere concentrates that which we do produce. The mercury vapor given off by the ocean is probably harmless. The biologically active mercury in the oceans is definitely not harmless. The mercury we produce eventually becomes biologically active and increases the concentration of non-harmless mercury to actively dangerous levels, generally in specific spatial locations but also in particular species that appear particularly susceptible (e.g. swordfish) in the ocean.
Mercury, in addition to be a teratogen (causing birth defects), toxin (poisonous enough to kill you directly), carcinogen (as a DNA-damaging oxidative agent readily taken up and stored in tissue), has a pronounced CNS effect — it crosses the blood brain barrier and causes damage to nervous tissue. It is mad as a hatter to oppose reasonable efforts to reduce the levels of mercury in the environment, or try to claim that the mercury that is there is harmless and that we didn’t put a lot of it there right where it is most dangerous. Dissenters are invited to take their pregnant wives and visit sunny Michigan for a Saginaw Fish Fry.
Well, no, I suppose I’m kidding — it really isn’t funny, and I wouldn’t wish birth defects on anyone for the sin of disagreeing or being wrong about something, but there really is a rather large amount of science and experience behind this and sometimes even the overdemonized EPA gets things right. Indeed, overall I rather think it is a good thing, because we made a bloody mess out of our waterways and air quality before it came along, and a lot of what it does anyone with common sense would want done. Don’t throw the many babies it provides out with the bathwater of misdirected efforts treating CO_2 as a “pollutant”.
Mercury is many things, but one thing it isn’t is equivalent to CO_2 in toxicity or long term capacity to cause harm.
rgb
Maybe the plan is to save us from the light bulbs…
….by cutting off the power
Nick in Vancouver says:
March 31, 2012 at 7:07 am
Clearly the EPA needs to ban China, oh wait we’ve “outsourced” all our manufacturing there what will we do?
No worries, Nick. I agree a top EPA priority should be a total ban of China. As to our outsourced manufacturing there, I say it goes the same way as the 40% of our electrical generation President Zero is on the way to bankrupting. When the sh*t really hits the fan, we can all riot our fannies off — that’s if disease and starvation hasn’t already taken us out.
Willis, several points.
First, mercury doesn’t cause cardiovascular issues, and EPA doesn’t (yet) claim it does. A very good study of this issue is Darius \h Mozaffarian et al. (2011), “Mercury Exposure and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Two U.S. Cohorts,” New England Journal of Medicine, 2011. Authors are from Harvard School of Public Health and various Boston hospitals. Conclusion section says:
“We found no evidence of any clinically relevant adverse effects of mercury exposure on coronary heart disease, stroke, or total cardiovascular disease in U.S. adults at the exposure levels seen in this study. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.)”
Secondly, the sole adverse health effect that EPA claims to have found that they can quantify, and uses to regulate mercury, is reduction of IQ in the fetus of mothers who eat fish.
This effect, by their own admission, is so tiny as to be unmeasurable. EPA’s Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) is the required examination of costs and benefits of the rule. EPA’s RIA (March, 2011) says that a 90% reduction in mercury emissions from US power plants, and the subsequent reduction in the mercury that mothers ingest when they eat fish whose mercury level has declined, is a total of 511 IQ points across the entire country. See Table 1-2 on page 1-4.
On pg. 5-2, this is what they say about the valuation of a gain of 2/1000 of an IQ point per affected child:
“The average effect on individual avoided IQ loss in 2016 is 0.00209 IQ points, with total nationwide benefits estimated between $0.5 and $6.1 million.” The benefits are from aggregate estimated increases in lifetime earnings due to 511 more IQ points spread among 240,000 allegedly affected children.
The link to the RIA is here:
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/regdata/RIAs/ToxicsRuleRIA.pdf
The third point will go to how EPA comes up with “benefits” of possibly over $100 B for a rule whose only direct benefit from mercury reduction could not be found in any child, should it exist (the 2/1000 improvement in IQ points. I will have to send it later, as I need to go someplace right now. I needed to say SOMETHING before I left!
@ur momisugly Bob W in NC :& kadaka (KD Knoebel)
I may be too cynical, but the circumstances are just too coincidental for me to ignore.
We essentially outlawed incandescent bulbs. We did this to save energy. Ok, I was against that but I understand the thought…. sort of. But, we also essentially established the CFL’s as the default bulb to replace them with. But, we did this knowing full well LEDs were right on the heels of CFL’s as being marketable with even better energy savings. We rushed the legislation to kill U.S. production and to endorse CFLs. The CFLs are simply an issue the lunatics can put in their back pocket.
Without a doubt, in a few years, there’s going to be an upwelling, a crying and gnashing of teeth because ground levels of mercury will be seen as increasing. And it will be an emergency and we’ll be prodded to do something extreme, and it will harm a successful industry in the U.S.
If WUWT is still around, we’ll show them these wonderful charts and graphs and data provided by Willis and others. And, they’ll ignore this and continue to show the rise in ground level mercury. And then we’ll lose another industry and likely a liberty or two. Next, they’ll come up with some other great idea using lead or some such for a product we don’t need but will adopt. Rinse and repeat as necessary until all forms of capitalism and liberties(yes, that’s redundant) are extinguished from this great land.
Prolly the next great scare…. after water scarcity, will be the radioactive particles of the REE found in our e-waste or some such madness.
Mercury poisoning is serious and your pie chart is misleading by making it look like a tiny anthropogenic problem. It is not. In addition global large scale efforts to reduce emissions may not affect a local source. Mercury levels are a serious LOCAL issue, tend to concentrate near population centers, and it does not take much for levels to be dangerous. Control needs to therefore be a local issue. This kind of EPA work does not make CNN headlines and apparently does not gain Miss Pinenuts’ attention.
When mercury is found it means down and dirty work, hard work. Local sources are not easily identified. And sometimes the source is not the industry near a river. For example, fish fat is the usual place to find dangerous mercury levels. But fish come and go. Where they picked up mercury is an investigative quandary. I wonder if Miss Pinenuts understands this. I seriously doubt she has any knowledge about this issue when well she should.
The WSJ has an article by Liam Denning that says this rule applies to “new” plants. Further, he writes “Except the market got there first. Regardless of the EPA proposal, it makes no sense to build a new coal-fired plant anyway.”
Then there are numbers ($ & %). The last two paragraphs are interesting. Lots of gas. Price goes down. Price of coal goes down. Gas price already low – can it go lower? All this makes the “futures” prices hard to settle on and thus, planning for new construction of electrical generation difficult.
Robert Brown says:
March 31, 2012 at 7:37 am
What you say is true, however it doesn’t bear on Willis’ point which is that the EPA is out in left field with the regulations on the power plants.
The fact that there hasn’t been a dramatic effort by the EPA to clean up known areas of contamination (with the exception of a few “Super-sites”) is one more negative point for our “Environmental Protection Agency.” They can get money to travel to talk about it, but don’t put any money in really doing it. Remediation occurs when they can point to a “guilty party,” provided that party is a private company. Federal Government Agencies, State Governments, and Municipalities get a pass – read up on the TVA, Illinois, and Huntington Beach, CA for more info. So much for protecting the environment.