UPDATE: 3/30/12 Since a number of commenters that are getting bent out of shape over the issue can’t apparently be bothered to read the paper, and since the authors at Syracuse themselves are under pressure because the alarmosphere has gone ballistic over the possibility that Mike Mann’s “there is no MWP much less global” gospel might be challenged, I offer readers this passage from the actual paper:
The resolution of our record is insufficient to constrain
the ages of these climatic oscillations in the Southern
hemisphere relative to their expression in the Northern hemisphere, but our ikaite record builds the case that the oscillations of the MWP and LIA are global in their extent and their impact reaches as far South as the Antarctic Peninsula, while prior studies in the AP region
have had mixed results.
I realize that because the authors chose a really poor place to publish it, in Elsevier, which is being boycotted worldwide for their draconian policies on scientific publishing, that many people haven’t read the actual paper, but instead rely on others to interpret it for them, sparing them the effort of having to think or investigate for themselves. Of course the same sorts of people that claim my headline is wrong won’t believe the passage I’ve cited above, therefore I’m reproducing page 114 of the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters 325–326 (2012) with the relevant passage highlighted:
Some media (The Daily Mail for example) have oversold the conclusions of the paper, and thus this is why the authors have issued a statement. Based on their words above in their own paper, I stand by my headline. Note that the authors at Syracuse have NOT asked me to change my headline nor any part of my post on the issue. – Anthony
==============================================================

Oxygen 16/18 isotope ratios show the Medieval Warm Period was global – all the way to Antarctica
Despite this poorly written press release with the “topsy-turvy” first paragraph written by some PR person at Syracuse University who doesn’t even mention the name of the paper, there’s some interesting science in the paper once you figure out what the name of the paper is. Unfortunately, this is published by Elsevier, and like a growing number of people in the scientific community (8500+ now), I refuse to purchase anything from Elsevier (especially when they want $40 to read a paper already funded by taxpayers) since they pulled that stunt trying to lobby our legislature. Hopefully the authors themselves will liberate this important paper and put it on one of their own websites. (Update: I’ve been in touch with Judy L. Holmes of Syracuse who has been very gracious. It seems Eurekalert botched the press release, excluding important info and that is now being corrected) – Anthony
Scientists use rare mineral to correlate past climate events in Europe, Antarctica
New study published in April issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters
The first day of spring brought record high temperatures across the northern part of the United States, while much of the Southwest was digging out from a record-breaking spring snowstorm. The weather, it seems, has gone topsy-turvy. Are the phenomena related? Are climate changes in one part of the world felt half a world away?
To understand the present, scientists look for ways to unlock information about past climate hidden in the fossil record. A team of scientists led by Syracuse University geochemist Zunli Lu has found a new key in the form of ikaite, a rare mineral that forms in cold waters. Composed of calcium carbonate and water, ikaite crystals can be found off the coasts of Antarctica and Greenland.
“Ikaite is an icy version of limestone,” say Lu, assistant professor of earth sciences in SU’s College of Arts and Sciences. “The crystals are only stable under cold conditions and actually melt at room temperature.”
It turns out the water that holds the crystal structure together (called the hydration water) traps information about temperatures present when the crystals formed. This finding by Lu’s research team establishes, for the first time, ikaite as a reliable proxy for studying past climate conditions. The research was recently published online in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters and will appear in print on April 1. Lu conducted most of the experimental work for the study while a post-doctoral researcher at Oxford University. Data interpretation was done after he arrived at SU.
The scientists studied ikaite crystals from sediment cores drilled off the coast of Antarctica. The sediment layers were deposited over 2,000 years. The scientists were particularly interested in crystals found in layers deposited during the “Little Ice Age,” approximately 300 to 500 years ago, and during the “Medieval Warm Period,” approximately 500 to 1,000 years ago. Both climate events have been documented in Northern Europe, but studies have been inconclusive as to whether the conditions in Northern Europe extended to Antarctica.
Ikaite crystals incorporate ocean bottom water into their structure as they form. During cooling periods, when ice sheets are expanding, ocean bottom water accumulates heavy oxygen isotopes (oxygen 18). When glaciers melt, fresh water, enriched in light oxygen isotopes (oxygen 16), mixes with the bottom water. The scientists analyzed the ratio of the oxygen isotopes in the hydration water and in the calcium carbonate. They compared the results with climate conditions established in Northern Europe across a 2,000-year time frame. They found a direct correlation between the rise and fall of oxygen 18 in the crystals and the documented warming and cooling periods.
“We showed that the Northern European climate events influenced climate conditions in Antarctica,” Lu says. “More importantly, we are extremely happy to figure out how to get a climate signal out of this peculiar mineral. A new proxy is always welcome when studying past climate changes.”
###
An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12000659
Zunli Lu, Rosalind E.M. Rickaby, Hilary Kennedy, Paul Kennedy, Richard D. Pancost, Samuel Shaw, Alistair Lennie, Julia Wellner, John B. Anderson
Abstract
Calcium carbonate can crystallize in a hydrated form as ikaite at low temperatures. The hydration water in ikaite grown in laboratory experiments records the δ18O of ambient water, a feature potentially useful for reconstructing δ18O of local seawater. We report the first downcore δ18O record of natural ikaite hydration waters and crystals collected from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), a region sensitive to climate fluctuations. We are able to establish the zone of ikaite formation within shallow sediments, based on porewater chemical and isotopic data. Having constrained the depth of ikaite formation and δ18O of ikaite crystals and hydration waters, we are able to infer local changes in fjord δ18O versus time during the late Holocene. This ikaite record qualitatively supports that both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age extended to the Antarctic Peninsula.
UPDATE: A colleague has forwarded a copy of the paper, allowing me to cite some additional information that I have presented below:

From the discussion section:
…
The MWP has not yet been unambiguously established around the
AP. Three δ18Ohydra values fall in this period and all of them are significantly
lighter than those values of older crystals by 2–3‰, a difference
too large to be explained by analytical uncertainties and
variability among crystals formed at the same time (0.33‰ at
JPC24), and are associated with lower δ18OCaCO3.We tentatively interpret
this shift in ikaite isotopic values as the result of meltwater invasion,
and warming in the Firth of Tay during the MWP. The ~5‰
decrease in δ18Ohydra at the beginning of the MWP must indicate
very strong freshening at the bottom of fjord, likely due to meltwater
cascading to depth. How such a distinct isotopic signal might be preserved
to such great depth in the fjord is beyond the scope of this
paper. However, meltwater beneath the ice-sheet is known to be
injected into fjords at different water depths including the base of
the fjord (Domack and Ishman, 1993). Although meltwater typically
mixes quickly with fjord water, it can be trapped at the base of the
inner fjord sometimes (e.g. when there is a sill preventing it from
moving forward) (Domack and Ishman, 1993). We hypothesize that
such subglacial meltwater may be the cause of strong meltwater signal
at the beginning of MWP. Other evidence supports the meltwater
signal inferred from δ18Ohydra. At the Firth of Tay, MS shifted to mostly
below average values between 1 and 0.6 ka (Fig. 6A). Low MS was
also found for the same period of time in Bransfield Strait sediments
and was considered to mark the MWP (Khim et al., 2002). Elemental
ratio records from Maxwell Bay, northern Bransfield Strait, allow
identification of both the MWP and the Little Ice Age (Monien et al.,
2011). Moss exposed by recent ice retreat on Anvers Island, West
AP, were radiocarbon dated to 0.7–0.97 ka, contrary to the much
older ages of reworked marine shells in the same sections, indicating
that the ice-sheet was reduced during that period to an extent of similar
magnitude to today (Hall et al., 2010). δ18OEPICA (Stenni et al.,
2006) shows warming at 0.6–0.8 ka, but with a brief cooling in between.
SST at Palmer Deep was even higher than modern during
this period (Shevenell et al., 2011). There is a notable lag between
the onset of MWP at the western AP and at the eastern AP according
to this SST record and our ikaite record although this observation
needs to be confirmed by additional records. On the eastern AP, no
significant change in foraminifera assemblage at Firth of Tay was observed
that could correspond with the Medieval Warm Period, Little
Ice Age, or the warming over the last century (Majewski and
Anderson, 2009). Also signals of the MWP or LIA, if any, were not
up to a magnitude that influenced glacial sedimentation
(Michalchuk et al., 2009).
…
Our most recent crystals suggest a warming relative to
the LIA in the last century, possibly as part of the regional recent
rapid warming, but this climatic signature is not yet as extreme in nature
as the MWP. The resolution of our record is insufficient to constrain
the ages of these climatic oscillations in the Southern
hemisphere relative to their expression in the Northern hemisphere,
but our ikaite record builds the case that the oscillations of the
MWP and LIA are global in their extent and their impact reaches as
far South as the Antarctic Peninsula, while prior studies in the AP region
have had mixed results.
Conclusions
We report the first comprehensive geochemical study on an
ikaite-containing core to demonstrate the potential of using hydration
water δ18Ohydra as a paleoenvironmental proxy. Porewater solute
concentrations indicate that these authigenic carbonate minerals
form in a narrow and shallow zone where Ca and DIC are both relatively
enriched. Coupling δ13C of ikaite crystals and δ13C of porewater
DIC, allows estimation of formation depth for individual crystal. The
ikaite formation depths are then used to calculate the time of crystallization
relative to the ambient sediments. δ18Ohydra and δ18OCaCO3
throughout JPC2 at Firth of Tay are reported. The youngest crystal
precipitated in modern porewater validates the fractionation factor
obtained in the previous study (Rickaby et al., 2006). The late Holocene
climate pattern inferred from δ18Ohydra and δ18OCaCO3 is comparable
to other records from the region and our ikaite record provides
new support that the MWP and LIA might have influenced the AP. In
the future, paired δ18Ohydra and δ18OCaCO3 may be used to calculate
δ18O of paleo-porewater indicating temperature changes. At this
stage, the geochemistry of ikaite serves as a qualitative, rather than
a quantitative, climatic proxy, because it remains challenging to account
for kinetic effects on uptake of δ18O into the carbonate during
crystallization and any post-crystallization exchange of δ18Ohydra
signal.
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Sounds like a good addition to so many papers which support that the MWP was real, global and as warm or warmer then the current T. It is amazing that a few tree rings from a few, mostly NH locations, can be considered to outweigh a far more diverse selections of proxies, from thousands of locations.
To understand why the “team” is so desparate to destroy the MWP is crucial to the debate. In trying to support the “cause” they trapped themselves. They flatlined CO2 and temperatures for the one to two thousand year HS reconstructions. This allowed them to assign an artificially high weight to modern CO2 increases. They further increased the weight of CO2 by only considering solar influence on climate to be a lineal response to TSI changes, ignoring many other possbilties within the peer reviewed literature. They allowed these flawed studies to set the CO@ur momisugly senstivity used in the models. Now, having flatlined CO2 for the period of the reconstuctions, if the MWP is shown to be real then their theory is destroyed, and their failed models are sent to the garbage pile. (What a tangled mess we weave…..)
The Antarctic Peninsula? That extends well north of the Antarctic Circle, and may as well be considered part of the North Atlantic.
Sure, just like the Arctic Archipelago, Sargasso Sea, Central America, the Western United States, Siberia and New Zealand. What in the world isn’t in Western Europe and the North Atlantic?
Oops, my “sarc” tags disappeared.
Because of the lack of accurate dating in Antarctic ice cores, correlation with the Greenland ice cores and with other Northern Hemisphere paleotemperature proxies has been uncertain. The land record in New Zealand shows a consistent paleotemperature record in lockstep with the NH, but correlation with Antarctica has remained a problem. This new research is therefore significant. If anyone gets a copy of the paper, I’d sure like to see it.
“We showed that the Northern European climate events influenced climate conditions in Antarctica,” Lu says.
Do we know climate events in Antarctica didn’t influence climate conditions in Northern Europe?
George V.
NIce paper, but:
““We showed that the Northern European climate events influenced climate conditions in Antarctica,” Lu says.”
This is an ingenuous statement. The results show that the LIttle Ice Age was global, but NOT that events in Northern Europe affected the Antarctic. Whatever caused the events in Europe ALSO caused a cold phase in the Antarctic.
Correlation does NOT mean causation.
Unfortunately, this is published by Elsevier, and like a growing number of people in the scientific community (8500+ now), I refuse to purchase anything from Elsevier (especially when they want $40 to read a paper already funded by taxpayers) since they pulled that stunt trying to lobby our legislature.
i found this interesting.
The qualifying remarks in this paper allow Mann et al to say that there is no solid evidence from this study. The authors show a concept, an example that is qualitative, not quantitative, and “may” indicate support for a global MWP event. They allow the writers to write subsequent papers either way. They don’t stake a position. Nicely done.
There are geoscientists and there are “prospect makers” in the field of petroleum geology. One postulates, the other predicts. The climate scientists like these guys, Mann, Trenberth et al are the geo-scientist equivalents. Bastardi, Corbyn, Watts, are the prospect maker type, using their skills to advance the actuality of the human condition, not the imaginative fancy of the elite.
If scientists of all stripes were forced, by convention, to append all of their papers with definitive statements without the words “may”, “should” or “could”- with the principle that all such statements could be repudiated later, on the inclusion of additional information – we would be in a better position to use their work. Or falsify their positions.
Imagine if Mann had to say: my work says this happened, then. All we’d have to do is show that other work says it didn’t. And so his position would be falsified. Right now, how he/Gore present it, it cannot be falsified, as he never says A is. He says A might be, probably is. Never just “is”.
Arm-waving rhetoric. There should be a paper in that subject. Maybe, or it could be written. Possibly in Russian.
The evidence for Global MWP is so strong, you could really make an article like this a weekly installment for WUWT along the lines of “MWP Update”. Surely drought in N Mex and SW US are tied to this Global trend too…ironic that the MWP phrase was first coined by HH Lamb who helped establish!
Why has the δ18O panel A in the graph got its x-axis going the other way compared to the rest.
Am I missing something?
To David (first post)-flat-lining is intrinsic to dendro-chronology, as detrending (accounting for differential biomass of trees, and thus relative width of rings, when deriving a width oscillation between trees of a given regional sequence), as a mathematical auto-function (see Jan Esper in Science 2002). Special requirements for long-term low-frequency pattern recognition are not understood it seems by Mann in this respect. I do not think he was a PhD in dendro-studies before his appointment, which makes one wonder about the motives of those appointing him in the first place! Many dendro-people will avoid employment of there data to make long-term reconstructions as a result, although high-frequency patterns, like there was a drought on a specific year, are less problematical.
Quiet sun,vertically weak polar vortices become more extensive horizontally at the surface, climate zones and jetstreams move towards the equator from BOTH poles.
Active sun, polar vortices become more intense vertically but become smaller and more focused at the surface, climate zones and jetstreams move towards BOTH poles.
“They flatlined CO2 and temperatures for the one to two thousand year HS reconstructions. This allowed them to assign an artificially high weight to modern CO2 increases.”
wrong. Estimates of climate sensitivity of 3 happened well before the HS
Also, the estimates are constrained by MWP recons. LGM reconstructions
drive the central estimate for the ECR.
In short the HS is not that interesting or important.
Please note that modern warming does not happen in the SH,
as far as yet.
My overall average is 0.00 for the past 40 years in the SH
It seems the extra heat coming especially into the SH (as noted by increasing maxima) is moved by currents and weather systems to the NH where we find ca. 0,03 degrees C per annum warming for the past 40 years or so.
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
I am not saying it did not happen in the past, I am just saying it is not happening now.
I suspect a greater influence of the absence of ozone playing a role here, but there could also be other factors.
Doubly interesting. It’s always nice to see a bit more support for the full-scale MWP, plus, ikaite (is that pronounced “eeka-ite”?) has to be the weirdest form of calcium carbonate ever. I’d say I want a bit, except it would melt!
Steven Mosher says: March 22, 2012 at 9:11 am
HS restrained by MWP, while LGM drives off the ECR (?!).
The MWP is embarrasing for alarmists for the other side of the CO2-causes-warming equation too.
Remember, the ice cores show temperature changes preceding changes in CO2 (not the other way round) by about 800 years. If the MWP was global then how do we distinguish between the output of CO2 from the oceans and the CO2 output of industrial civilisation?
Indeed, the ouput of the oceans may dwarf the industrial output. And that would be very embarrassing.
This is what a lawyer would call “circumstantial” evidence. WHile historical records are not perfect, there have been dozens of studies from human civilization that indicated the MWP was global in nature. These have been documented by anthropologists, and thus not part of the enforced dogma of the AGW cabal. Still, as scientists look for proof of the MWP, it appears they are finding it more and more.
I guess that was an unMANN made global climate change.
Steven Mosher said @ur momisugly March 22, 2012 at 9:11 am
Little Green Men reconstructions drive the central estimate for the European Commission Representation. Sounds about right…
If the MWP is as warm as the modern warm period was, it was not caused by CO2. It was not caused by solar irradiance either. What was it then? Do the same factor(s) contribute to the modern warming?
Calcium carbonate in its many forms coupled with its unusual solubility characteristics (it’s more soluble in cold water than warm due to bicarbonate forms) just keeps on amazing me. A very interesting study.
““We showed that the Northern European climate events influenced climate conditions in Antarctica,” Lu says.”
LOL. I must have missed that section.
Pat says:
““We showed that the Northern European climate events influenced climate conditions in Antarctica,” Lu says.”
LOL. I must have missed that section.
Stephen Wilde says:
Quiet sun,vertically weak polar vortices become more extensive horizontally at the surface, climate zones and jetstreams move towards the equator from BOTH poles.
Active sun, polar vortices become more intense vertically but become smaller and more focused at the surface, climate zones and jetstreams move towards BOTH poles.
Henry says:
sorry guys.
In both cases you/they are wrong at least from the observed data from the past 40 years or so.
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
At the moment, (I mean the past 40 years or so) extra heat is going into the SH, presumably into the oceans, but it does not get any warmer there. It simply seems to travel to the NH where it does get warmer. Probably via currents and weather.
My data suggest that warming is due to, either
1) more intense heat from the sun
and/or
2) less clouds
and/or
3) less ozone
It seems to me the latter possibility is becoming the more critical option to look at.
Remember that that little layer of ozone upstairs cuts off almost 20% of all incoming (UV) sunlight. Water aborbs in the UV, and therefore a lot of it (the extra UV, or the more than normal UV) is converted to heat in the water.
Doug Proctor says:
March 22, 2012 at 8:19 am
There should be a paper in that subject. Maybe, or it could be written. Possibly in Russian.
Russians have done their best for the global warming.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/69-71.htm
Steven Mosher: In short the HS is not that interesting or important.
To whom?
Mann has found it interesting enough and important enough to write a book accusing HS critics of misdeeds, and his book has earned high marks from climate scientists who agree with him about the importance of AGW. It was for a time so interesting and important as to be subjected to a review by the National Academy of Sciences, and it was defended by Schmidt et al in their critique of McShane and Wyner. It was for a time so interesting and important as to be on the home page of the IPCC.