The DeSmoggers are crashing and burning

Well, the DeSmog Blog “coup” is going down, oh the humanity.

There’s a scathing second writeup at The Atlantic by Megan McArdle (as if the first wasn’t enough) that takes the DeSmoggers to task. Note to Hoggan and crew – when you can’t even get a left leaning news outlet to back you up, even in the slightest, you’ve lost the battle.

This is a must read: Heartland Memo Looking Faker By the Minute

I appreciate this quote from her article:

The high probability that the memo is fake makes this response from Desmogblog, one of the first places to post the memos, all the more disappointing:

The DeSmogBlog has no evidence supporting Heartland’s claim that the Strategic document is fake. A close review of the content shows that it is overwhelmingly accurate (“almost too accurate” for one analyst), and while critics have said that it is “too short” or is distinguished by “an overuse of commas,” even the skeptics at weatherguy Anthony Watts’s WUWT say that a technical analysis of the metadata on the documents in question does not offer sufficient information to come to a firm conclusion either way.
But in the tradition of the famous, and famously controversial “hockey stick graph,” the challenge to the single document has afforded the DeSmogBlog’s critics – and Heartland’s supporters – something comfortable to obsess about while they avoid answering questions raised by the other documents.

The first two links are to my post, and they are an egregious misrepresentation of what I said.

She adds:

Dismissing the possibility of fakery–and the obvious questions about who might have perpetrated it–does not help us focus on the “real issues”.  I’m afraid “Fake but accurate” just won’t do.  Nor will trying to shift the burden of proof to the people who are pointing out solid reasons for concern.   Instead, the stubborn willingness to ignore obvious problems becomes the story–something that Dan Rather learned to his dismay in 2004. 

Moreover, the fact is that this document does not merely confirm facts found in other sources.  It substantially recasts those facts, in the case of the Koch donation.  And in the selection of facts it presents, and the spin it puts on them, it alters the reporting. 

The climate blogs presumably relied so heavily on the memo because the quotes were punchier, and suggested far darker motivations than the blandly professional language of the authenticated documents–and because it edited the facts into a neat, almost narrative story.  

In the first 24 hours, I saw a lot of comments along the line of “See!  They’re really just as amoral and dangerous as we thought they were!” based on a memo which I now believe to have been written by someone who, well, thinks that AGW skeptics are amoral and dangerous.  (And judging from his update to the original document dump, Littlemore’s fellow blogger, Brandon Demelle, is also unsure of the memo’s “facts”.)

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Crash and burn for DeSmog.

Meanwhile, over at The American Spectator, Ross Kaminsky has this:

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Theft and Apparent Forgery of Heartland Institute Documents

The Heartland Institute is in contact with law enforcement officials, which may have the perpetrator feeling a little nervous.

One obvious suspect in the Heartland document theft — and this is just my speculation — is Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security and a true enemy of the Heartland Institute. Gleick is a committed alarmist rent-seeker who seems quite bitter that he shares Forbes magazine’s pages with Heartland’s James Taylor.

The document which the alarmists have been trying to make the most of is called “Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy.” It appears to be of a similar nature to the forged “Rathergate” documents which ended Dan Rather’s long career promoting leftist views disguised as news.

First, the Heartland document is written in a way which makes it appear unlikely to be genuine. As a commenter on a Forbes.com article about this mini-scandal notes, “It uses the term ‘anti-climate’ to refer to Heartland’s own position — a derogatory term which climate skeptic outfits never use to describe their positions (and…) it is written in the first person, yet there’s no indication of who wrote it. (Have you ever seen a memo like that?)”

Interestingly, Gleick, who would normally be preening and prancing in glee at this sort of attention to the Heartland Institute has so far been utterly silent at his Forbes blog and on his Twitter feed.

Full story here.

================================================================

(Added)There are two other discussions of interest in the “whodunnit” category. Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has a spirited discussion going on (love his movie graphic), as does Lucia’s Blackboard. Pielke Jr. has flat out asked Dr. Gleick in an email if he was involved, and so have I. I have received no response since my email this morning, and to my knowledge neither has Pielke Jr. For once, not a sound out of WaterWorld by the bay.

In Australia, The Age has this political cartoon about Dr. Bob Carter, also named in the emails along with me:

We live in interesting times. Popcorn futures are off the charts.

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February 17, 2012 5:10 pm

I’m enjoying a holiday in my home country at the moment and singing to myself the old Scottish standard: “Oh! We’ll take the high road…”.

February 17, 2012 5:12 pm

It’s all so sadly incompetant, I’m beginning to think that some naughty person walked them into a data mine.
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2012/02/17/fakegate/
Pointman

Maus
February 17, 2012 5:14 pm

Finger wagging about social engineering and forged documents? Apparently, McArdle hates science.

neill
February 17, 2012 5:17 pm

It feels like something just shifted.

crosspatch
February 17, 2012 5:18 pm

Questions I would ask are:
“have any of Heartland’s laptops gone missing recently or been sold as scrap?”
Someone apparently had access to those real documents, or had access to the computer of someone who did. Often disk drives of old computers can show up on eBay or other outlets with the original data intact. Did they throw away an old drive that someone plucked out of the trash? Someone maybe lift a thumb drive? There could have been any number of ways those documents might have found their way out but the first thing I would look for are the obvious:
Someone sharing a wifi access point in the office with no access control that gives access to internal document directories on a file server.
Lost of stolen laptop.
Lack of security for information thrown away.
Lack of security for hardware thrown away.
Someone with malware on their computer or phone(!) that might allow access to their email/attachments, etc.

alcuin
February 17, 2012 5:19 pm

I think that one’s position should be that pure weather, undiluted by climate, would be too variable to sustain a robust economy, so we should be pro, not anti-climate.

MrX
February 17, 2012 5:24 pm

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4zp2NucwsU]

Malcolm Miller
February 17, 2012 5:26 pm

Thanks for reproducing The Age cartoon! It’s delightful, and apt. That Flannery, a museum biologist, is being paid a fortune to pontificate about something of which he is totally ignorant. It’s time he was taken down.

Bob Koss
February 17, 2012 5:28 pm

You left the ‘n’ off the end of Megan’s name in the line just below the image. Seems to imply large. I doubt she would be pleased. 🙂

Dude
February 17, 2012 5:32 pm

Anthony I have ready your blog since 2008 and always appreciate your candor. You are allowed to crow since you have put up with such venom for so long.
I posted this on Bishop Hill earlier but thought it might do well with this post.
So in a nutshell.
The fake memo is just another document with tortured, and made up data that is passed off as official and if we call it as we see it we are anti-science. These warmers are so used to “adjusting” data and “smoothing” trends and using “forcings”….heck this 2012 Climate strategy is another official warmer computer model to create a report!!
Think about it. They take information ( HI donor data ) create smoothing ( outline for Climate Strategy ) use forcings ( predetermined motives of HI ) mix in some Dr Evil stuff ( not teaching science in schools ) and Bam! the 2012 Climate Strategy that is real in their minds. Who could argue? I mean all they did was embellish what they already knew was true.
And if we point out that it is fake they will say the data is there for everyone to see. When we shine the light of truth on the document we are obviously support big oil, the Koch Foundation, take candy from baby’s, want the world to start of fire…..blah blah blah.
We should give the fake memo a name and use it as the Posterchild for the warmers.

cui bono
February 17, 2012 5:39 pm

Lol. And credit to Steven Mosher, who seems to have first suggested Gleick as a culprit based on timezones and punctuation.
Dr, Pielke Jr. has a tweet: “I emailed @PeterGleick to ask if he faked the Heartland document, no reply yet. I offered to publish his confirmation or denial on my blog.” [From Lucia.]
Baited breath….

cui bono
February 17, 2012 5:41 pm

Odd, “no reply yet”. He was so fast in doing an Amazon review of Donna’s book on the IPCC he practically gave off Cherenkov radiation!

r.murphy
February 17, 2012 5:55 pm

On page A4 of the Vancouver Sun, Postmedia “science” reporter Margaret Munro authors one article and is quoted in another. In said article she interviews AAAS president Nina Federoff about why mainstream climate science is losing the debate. The article is so blatently misleading it deserves wide exposure to highlight how corrupt and intellectually and morally deficient the MSM has become. Someone(more computer literate than I) should post the article in its entirety so that Margaret, and willing dupe the Sun, can be properly shamed.

Dale
February 17, 2012 5:57 pm

The Age did that cartoon? You’re kidding right? That paper is so green left that the weekly supplement is actually called “The Green Guide!”

Konrad
February 17, 2012 6:00 pm

“High-Profile” enough for you now Mr Gleick?

February 17, 2012 6:20 pm

It’s hard to believe that Peter Gleick had anything to do with writing the “Confidential” memo, because the grammar and syntax are so awkward. That memo is written at about a mediocre 12th grade level.
Peter Gleick, no mater his AGW outlook, is a highly intelligent and well-educated guy. He’s also president of the Pacific Institute, and so must be entirely conversant with memo-ese. Anything he writes will surely be professional in style and presentation, quite apart from content validity.
I’d surmise he had nothing to do with it. If it was offered to him prior to distribution, I’d expect he’d immediately nix it because its obviously shallow and unprofessional style would be a dead give-away.
Consider this analysis a hypothesis. We may soon find out who did it, and I could be wrong. That would be a surprise, though, to me anyway.

Brian H
February 17, 2012 6:24 pm

cui bono says:
February 17, 2012 at 5:39 pm

Dr, Pielke Jr. has a tweet: “I emailed @PeterGleick to ask if he faked the Heartland document, no reply yet. I offered to publish his confirmation or denial on my blog.” [From Lucia.]
Baited breath….

Bated, too.
__
I’d noted the use of warmist cant in document, but missed that “anti-climate” phrase. That’s a very telling tell! No skeptic would use that, EVAH!
Done like dinner.

Werner Brozek
February 17, 2012 6:25 pm

r.murphy says:
February 17, 2012 at 5:55 pm
The article is so blatantly misleading it deserves wide exposure

Here it can be accessed from the Edmonton Journal.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/technology/Climate+change+naysayers+drowning+science+expert/6167818/story.html
One quote:
“I am very worried,” Federoff told reporters. She noted that surveys indicate the number of Americans who believe in climate change has been declining “even as the scientific consensus (on climate change) has in-creased.”

u.k.(us)
February 17, 2012 6:27 pm

Amateurs.
This is trench warfare.

TRM
February 17, 2012 6:28 pm

Okay which of you smart alec deniers did this? Knowing it would get published and spread quickly without any fact checking only to get shot down in embarassing flames. You are good. Real good. I never want to play cards with you.
Cheers

MattN
February 17, 2012 6:34 pm

Wow, you guys sure got the media attention, but NOT the attention you wanted…

jimbojinx
February 17, 2012 6:39 pm

And to add to the hoopla, Mann has a very supportive review in the Guardian:
“The inside story on climate scientists under siege
Michael Mann reveals his account of attacks by entrenched interests seeking to undermine his ‘hockey stick’ graph……
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/17/michael-mann-climate-war
You should have a hanky nearby when you read it.

Kozlowski
February 17, 2012 6:40 pm

Crosspatch,
According to Heartland they are very much aware of how the documents were obtained by this “person of interest.” A staffer at Heartland was duped into sending the files out, via email attachment, to a new email address. This person who fooled the Heartland staffer into sending the documents claimed to be on the executive committee or a director or something like that.
My guess is that the investigation into this will go rather well. There are many leads to follow up on. One can also ID the exact scanner which was used to scan in the fake documents. There are many ways of doing this.
Identical to Rather-Gate, the person scanned in the document to eliminate the meta data which is embedded in all electronic documents. But that just gives investigators other metadata to follow which is less apparent to the average user.
Some scientists might be fairly smart in specific areas, but totally oblivious to the very detailed electronic crumb trail we all leave behind.
Cheers!

Merovign
February 17, 2012 6:41 pm

Some people really think life is like the movies. In this case, evil schemers at Heartland let slip a secret document where they confess to exactly what their opponents accuse them of.
It’s like they imagined Dr. Evil leaving his webcam on during a meeting, and thought “yeah, that seems plausible.”
On the other hand, there is precedent for such inane behavior – see Journ-o-list. Of course, they largely got away with it.

chris y
February 17, 2012 6:46 pm

cui bono says-
“He was so fast in doing an Amazon review of Donna’s book on the IPCC he practically gave off Cherenkov radiation!”
Excellent!
🙂

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