By Paul L. Vaughan, M.Sc.
The amplitude of Earth’s zonal winds is modulated by the solar cycle. Here’s a concise visual update based on the latest data:
LOD’ = rate of change of length of day
Data
ftp://ftp.iers.org/products/eop/long-term/c04_08/iau2000/eopc04_08_IAU2000.62-now ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/COSMIC_RAYS/STATION_DATA/Monthly_data/moscow.tab
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How about a hint as to what this means.
Reblogged this on insideamoronsbrain and commented:
Very scholarly. Loved reading this one.
The amplitude of Earth’s zonal winds is modulated by the solar cycle
Beware of confounding. Hint: Cosmic rays are but a proxy of the solar cycle. Plot LOD’ against the sunspot number. Both going back much longer than the data you cherry picked.
This is a little above my pay grade. Is it related to Scafetta’s work?
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/08/03/nicola-scafetta-comments-on-solar-trends-and-global-warming-by-benestad-and-schmidt/
So the goosey LOD derivative proxy for something or other matches wiggles with a Moscow neutron count proxy for zonal winds? Or is it vice versa? Why is this tagged Neptune? Fascinating, but I’m not sure what it means, based on the above. I need to know more. Is there some sort of overall correlation coefficient? Why do the words “morlet wavelet” fill me with sudden apathy?
The rule is: Tell ’em what you’re gonna tell ’em, then tell ’em, then tell ’em what you told ’em.
Didn’t we read about this a year ago?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/03/length-of-day-correlated-to-cosmic-rays-and-sunspots/
And there was this one way back in 2007:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/07/california-climate-pdo-lod-and-sunspot-departure/
Leif Svalgaard,
Can you shed some light for us on what the sam heck this is? I got a better understanding of what Vaughn posted from your critique than from his post, and I know from past experience that getting Vaughn to explain it in something akin to english is just a waste of time.
Leif: Isn’t the Neutron count more closely inversely proportional to the speed/density of the solar wind than the sunspot count?
Paul: The seasonal variation in zonal wind demonstrated by your second plot shows the primary overpowering influence of the equinox-solstice power house. This is a predictable ‘given’ quantity. Would it be possible to remove that to help us see what might be linked to variation caused by secondary factors?
So small blue and yellow blobs mean warming, and big yellow and blue blobs mean cooling. What could be more clear?
A bonus 5 points for posting .png images instead of .jpeg’s.
I don’t see the evidence for cherry picking. I looked at both data-sets. One starts in 59, the other in 62. The work presented shows the record for the period in which the two data-sets overlap.
A reasonable conclusion looking at the data presented is that a common factor MAY be influencing the LOA and Neutron counts. This would appear to be consistent with the theory that orbital mechanics play a role in earth’s LOA and solar activity.
If sunspot numbers do not show a similar correlation prior to ’62, then this suggests that either (1) the correlation is simply coincidental, or (2) that sunspot numbers are not measuring the same aspect of solar activity as is measured by neutron counts, or (3) that older records are less accurate than newer records.
As such, a lack of correlation between sunspot numbers and LOD on its own would not be sufficient to show that (1) was due to coincidence. It would be necessary to demonstrate (2) and (3) are both false as well.
What exactly does this mean? Some of us don’t have PhD’s in anything…
The interesting point that Isee there is one of timing.
The recovery was under way by the late 90s which predates the shift to a negative PDO and predates the cessation of the rise in ocean heat content. Those factors changed in the early 2000s.
However it does match the cessation of stratospheric cooling, the change from decreasing to increasing cloudiness and as commented by me on many occasions the start of more meridional/equatorward shifting jetstreams/climate zones. All those last 3 items are timed for the period 1995 to 2000.
So I’m sure that there is a link between the level of solar activity and the surface air pressure distribution and it is that which dictates the positions of the permanent climate zones and in turn the rate of energy flow from surface to space.
Subject to modification by internal oceanic cycling, that is.
And I prefer cloudiness changes from more meridional jetstreams rather than from more cosmic rays acting on the rate of cloud seeding.
I would love to see this plotted against the Solar Cycle and/or Sunspot counts over as long a range as possible – as Leif intimated it’s better not to cherry-pick
Intriguing nonetheless
Andy
PS Cool Yule to one and all
At least its not a mann made cherry hockey stick.
Interesting link provided by anna v on a previous WUWT posting:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/features.cfm?feature=15
Tallbloke also blogs on these ideas as well.
From the linked nasa article:
“The annual changes in the length of the day,” says Gross, “are caused mostly by the atmosphere — changes in the strength and direction of the winds, especially the jet stream. The Sun warms the equator more than the poles. That temperature difference is largely responsible for the jet stream. Seasonal changes in that temperature difference cause changes in the winds and, hence, the length of the day.”
Daily resolution LOD data start in 1962: ftp://ftp.iers.org/products/eop/long-term/c04_08/iau2000/eopc04_08_IAU2000.62-now
Daily resolution LOD data are needed for this type of analysis.
Why?
Refresher on high-frequency lunisolar components: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/10/solar-terrestrial-lunisolar-components-of-rate-of-change-of-length-of-day/
The solar modulation of terrestrial zonal winds is beyond dispute.
This post is just a quick update.
Ocean gyres [ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Ocean_currents_1943_%28borderless%293.png ] are driven by wind, which is driven by the pressure gradient force, which is driven by absolute equator-pole temperature contrast.
The following animations will run in Firefox, but not Internet Explorer.
Credit: Climatology animations have been assembled using JRA-25 Atlas [ http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/jra/atlas/eng/atlas-tope.htm ] images. JRA-25 long-term reanalysis is a collaboration of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) & Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).
AnimNetSurfSolRad
http://i53.tinypic.com/2r5pw9k.png
AnimPrecipitableWater
http://i52.tinypic.com/9r3pt2.png
Anim2mT
http://i55.tinypic.com/dr75s7.png
AnimNetSurfHeatFlux
http://oi54.tinypic.com/334teyt.jpg
AnimVerticalVelocity
http://i54.tinypic.com/2ch4x28.png
AnimOmega700hPa
http://i53.tinypic.com/28tvqt1.png
AnimHeating
http://i55.tinypic.com/317jchy.png
AnimWaterVaporFlux_
(column integrated water vapor flux with their convergence)
http://i51.tinypic.com/126fc77.png
AnimMSLP
http://i54.tinypic.com/swg11c.png
AnimWind10m
http://i44.tinypic.com/28rgyzo.png
AnimWind850hPa_
http://i52.tinypic.com/nlo3dw.png
AnimPolarWind850hPa
http://i54.tinypic.com/29vlc0x.png
AnimKEhfv
http://i41.tinypic.com/8zenb7.png
AnimWind200hPa
http://i52.tinypic.com/zoamog.png
AnimPolarWind200hPa
http://i52.tinypic.com/cuqyt.png
AnimWind550K
http://i56.tinypic.com/14t0kns.png
AnimWindZonal
http://i51.tinypic.com/34xouhx.png
[ Also see: http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qboanim.gif . You can see both the SAO & the QBO.]
AnimTempZonal
http://i56.tinypic.com/1441k5d.png
AnimTropCycloneDays
http://i44.tinypic.com/9thc8j.png
http://judithcurry.com/2011/12/23/week-in-review-122311/#comment-152541
Hmmm. So, I suppose that this is related to the fact that places like San Angelo, Texas and Truth or Consequences, New Mexico got more cold air and snow a few days ago than they have received in 70 years. I’m tired of the cold weather already. How long will it last?
Leif Svalgaard,
Can you shed some light for us on what the sam heck this is? I got a better understanding of what Vaughn posted from your critique than from his post, and I know from past experience that getting Vaughn to explain it in something akin to english is just a waste of time.
VAUGHAN
tallbloke (December 26, 2011 at 12:35 am) asked:
“Paul: The seasonal variation in zonal wind demonstrated by your second plot shows the primary overpowering influence of the equinox-solstice power house. This is a predictable ‘given’ quantity. Would it be possible to remove that to help us see what might be linked to variation caused by secondary factors?”
See graphs on p.4 here … http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/vaughn-sun-earth-moon-harmonies-beats-biases.pdf … and then see the generalization outlined in section I.10 on p.9, but also note item#1 here [ http://judithcurry.com/2011/12/23/week-in-review-122311/#comment-152541 ] if you are planning to research solar excitation of specific dominant terrestrial temporal modes.
Anecdote: There’s a super-easy, super-clear way to illustrate Mursula & Zieger’s (2001) long cycle. (Another day…)
The coherence of solar variables with LOD is multiscale (SAO, annual, QBO, multidecadal, etc.)
However: You may have no idea just exactly how involved it gets illustrating this. This is not a journey for the casual.
Most members of the mainstream do not understand why their methods can’t detect these patterns, but you can rest assured that there are a few who understand that the microscope’s focal length has to be pegged to the changing solar cycle length. Those with weak functional numeracy foundations seem to think it’s OK to adjust ONLY the magnification, holding the focal length CONSTANT at either an arbitrarily or “optimized” (comical) setting — a serious blunder. (Dismiss with a hearty laugh anyone trying with plain FFT!)
Also, many completely overlook the lunisolar variance. They’ll COMPLETELY MISS the Schwabe modulation of zonal winds. As I’ve explained patiently before, the modulation is of the MEAN. Yes, there’s also a modulation of the variance, but that doesn’t make the mean & the variance the same thing! Different moments have different properties.
I’ve run into folks who can’t understand why a top-down view works better than a bottom-up view for LOD. This should be a no-brainer since SCL is NONstationary and hence the side-lobe helices aren’t straight phase lines in dominant-temporal-mode stack-plots. It’s an integral across timescale we’re pursuing — and the frequency modulations are MOVING with SCL.
And of course there are still people (1) mistaking spatial phase reversals for temporal evolution and (2) not realizing that solar excitation can be either CONstructive or DEstructive, just like resonant swing pushes — i.e. we’re dealing with COMPLEX correlations, NOT linear ones. Bear in mind that a complex wavelet’s just a pattern resonator that can be set to imitate solar excitation of Earth’s natural frequencies.
That’s about as many hints as I’m free to give at this time.
Watch the wind animations – (the links lowest on the list above).
Cheers.
Paul Vaughan
Thanks for your insightful graphs showing associations between LOD’ and neutron counts.
See David Stockwell’s Accumulative Theory and related posts at Niche Modeling . He predicts a Pi/2 (90 deg) phase lag of the global temperature behind the integrated Total Solar Insolation (TSI) over the 11 year Schwabe cycle:
See Lag between HadCRU and TSI
I recommend you evaluate the corresponding phase lags between LOD (similar to global temperature) and the integral of the neutron count (similar to TSI). If I have my associations straight, I expect you will find a simlar Pi/2 or 90 deg shift between the parameters (or proxies) that drive the zonal winds and the LOD.
I second Tallbloke’s comments. Please explain what you are graphing, especially the colors on the left, vs the years on the right and the units of LOD’. Removing the annual cycle will help alot to show the secondary underlying Schwabe cycle.
It would also help our understanding to swap axes on your upper graph so that time is vertical on both charts.
Paul
I’ll try again to match typing to thought:
I am assuming the Svensmark’s cosmoclimatology hypothesis etc that there are associations between neutron counts, clouds, albedo, and absorbed insolation. Consequently there should be similar phase relationships in the LOD/rate of change in zonal wind system corresponding to what Stockwell predicts and finds in his accumulative theory for global temperature/TSI.
I recommend you evaluate the corresponding phase lags between LOD (similar to global temperature) and the integral of the neutron count (similar to the integral of the TSI). If I have my associations straight, I expect you will find a similar Pi/2 or 90 deg shift between the integral of the parameters (or proxies) that drive the rate of change the zonal winds and the LOD. (Please check this early morning mental physics).
I would love to understand what all this is about.
Just because I have a PhD in Physics does not make me any kind of an expert in planetary dynamics (although I do understand what neutron counts are).
It would be very helpful if Paul Vaughan could intermediate his knowledge – which he clearly wishes to share with us – through someone sympathetic to, and understanding of, the ignorance and lack of expertise of the vast majority of WUWT readers. We all know something, but none of us knows everything; what we have in common is the thirst for knowledge and the desire for sound science based on verifiable observations.
WUWT is for popular consumption. Please explain in easy words.
I suspect this has to do with the conservation of momentum and the total size of the earth’s atmosphere. Nothing to prove it since I do not have the heights of the various isobars over time, but if the upper atmosphere isobars are higher during a portion of the solar cycle due to more UV or cosmic rays or … It would stand to reason that since momentum must be conserved, the rotating earth atmosphere system would change in radians per fortnight accordingly.