We all need a break from the Gore-a-thon, so here’s some cheering news. As I reported on Sept 13th, Sea Ice News: Arctic sea ice “may” have turned the corner sea ice appeared then to have turned the corner for the melt season. It looks even more certain now (especially with NSIDC announcing it).
Source: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png
Here’s the data, looks like the minimum was reached on 9/9/2011
09,01,2011,4734063
09,02,2011,4720781
09,03,2011,4683594
09,04,2011,4655156
09,05,2011,4617188
09,06,2011,4587969
09,07,2011,4561719
09,08,2011,4545000
09,09,2011,4526875 <
09,10,2011,4527813
09,11,2011,4537188
09,12,2011,4542656
09,13,2011,4589844
09,14,2011,4655000
And, by the JAXA data, there was no new record low.
Even NSIDC’s 5 day average is looking up. Way up.
From NSIDC just a few minutes ago: (it showed up while editing my first pass, thus I’ve edited this story within a few minutes of the original posting to reflect it).
Arctic sea ice at minimum extent
Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its lowest extent for the year. The minimum ice extent was the second lowest in the satellite record, after 2007, and continues the decadal trend of rapidly decreasing summer sea ice.
Overview of conditions
On September 9, 2011 sea ice extent dropped to 4.33 million square kilometers (1.67 million square miles). This appears to have been the lowest extent of the year, and may mark the point when sea ice begins its cold-season cycle of growth. However, a shift in wind patterns or late season melt could still push the ice extent lower.
This year’s minimum was 160,000 square kilometers (61,800 square miles) above the 2007 record minimum extent, and 2.38 million square kilometers (919,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average minimum.
And NSIDC has avoided a new record low…yet in Gore’s CRP panel last night, the obscure University of Bremen dataset, never before touted by warmists, was trotted out as proof of another record low. Told ya so:
The answer to why such language might be used, perhaps prematurely in the face of other datasets which presently disagree, may be found in the proximity of the upcoming Climate Reality Project (aka the Gore-a-thon) on September 14-15. Al needs something to hold up as an example of gloom, since sea ice didn’t repeat the 2007 low in 2008, 2009, or 2010, and the Antarctic has not been cooperative with the melt meme at all, remaining boringly “normal” and even above normal last year.
We’ll know the answer when we see if this Bremen missive is included in Al’s upcoming presentation.
Last night in hour 1 of the CRP I noted:
Anthony Watts says:
I suspect the “views” counter now over 170K shows the number of attempted/completed connections, but doesn’t show the number of dropped.
Ah there’s the Arctic Sea Ice HITS A NEW RECORD – I was right in my recent sea ice news
This use of the Bremen press release is the worst example of alarmist cherry picking ever. For years, NSIDC is the authority they tout, now they were thrown under the bus before they could even announce whether they had a record low or not so that Gore could have a talking point.
As always, keep up to date on the WUWT sea ice page
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Arctic sea ice reaches lowest extent for 2011
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html
REPLY: Ah wouldn’t you know it, right in the middle of editing. I’d checked the site just before starting to write the post, I’ve edited it to reflect the NSIDC announcement, thanks – Anthony
Looks early to me. I wonder what this winter will bring.
More Gore Effect….certainly a negative feedback!
I wonder how many of those 170k attempted connections were from sceptics wanting a laugh? I’ve yet to see any warmist news outlets (e.g. BBC, Guardian) give any mention to the Gore-a-thon. Looks like even the warmists wish Al would vanish in a puff of hot air.
This is really good news. It is yet another example of the Gore effect. Keep Gore on TV long enough and Miami will freeze.
So, this would mean the ARCUS WUWT prediction was correct? I am assuming that’s based on the JAXA values.
No, based on NSIDC, monthly average for Sept. I suspect ARCUS will have an announcement soon
It is too early to say whether it has turned, or whether this is just a blip and there will be some further ice loss during the course of the next week or so.
If it has truly turned the corner, then the end of the melt season has come a little early this year. So that will make 2011 quite an interesting year; the second most ice loss in the past 10 years, but arguably the minimum ice extent reached at the earliest date in September during the last 10 years.
It will be interesting to re-examine matters in the 4th week of September when they will be more certainty.
As well, the northern arctic temperatures took a nose dive recently and are now about 3 degrees below normal and almost 10 degrees below freezing. See
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
William Mason says:
September 15, 2011 at 11:13 am
Looks early to me. I wonder what this winter will bring.
My money is on a colder winter than last year!
Werner Brozek says:
September 15, 2011 at 11:29 am
As well, the northern arctic temperatures took a nose dive recently and are now about 3 degrees below normal and almost 10 degrees below freezing. See
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
===============================================
It will be interesting to see what color J. Hansen uses for coloring the arctic for this month.
Arctic ice volume, according to PIOMAS:
See http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
also http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2_CY.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time%28%29?
looks to be considerably lower than 2007, although extent may not reach those 2007 levels. Apparently much of the extent is of very thin ice.
Who won the prediction bet?
It ain’t over until September is over.
So too early to draw any conclusions about Sea Ice Extent.
I was hoping for another record low this year, but it didn’t happen. Sea ice extent must have been lower during the Medieval Warm Period. So this is nothing unusual.
It is interesting to compare the data from this year and 2007. While the extent (the parts of the Arctic ocean with at least 15% ice cover) is a little more this year, the area (the actual amount of ice cover) is quite similar. The images comparing the two years (http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg) show larger portions that have lower % of cover. In other words, there is a similar amount of ice on the surface, but it is more spread out this year than 2007.
As the NSIDC announcement stated, winds could still blow the loose ice together (reducing the extent) or blow the loose ice farther apart (increasing the extent). Of course, neither of these affects will change the AMOUNT of ice — only the location.
It would be interesting to see how differences in area vs extent might affect the refreezing and next year’s ice.
second lowest….means it has not melted more…..it still has not melted more……it has melted less
You can’t show “continued rapid decline” if it is not declining
In a normal world, someone might say it’s getting better…………….
James Sexton: “It will be interesting to see what color J. Hansen uses for coloring the arctic for this month.”
Well, he has every shade of red imaginable in his crayon box…..
Is there any correlation between the amount (extent or volume) of the Arctic Sea Ice and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere?
Just wondering.
4.33 million square kilometers
Less than I expected, but more than 2007 by a good margin.
Let’s see, we know about long term cycles in temperature, but want to say that a very short time series like the satellite record has any significance. Show this all to me after we have 150+ years of satellite records (I could still be here 😉 you never know) and I’ll be impressed about “records”. This is still a baby record started at the end of the last cold spell of course the extent is going to show a trend downward. We may see this all turn around due to the vagaries of the various ocean circulation patterns, or we may see ice free northwest passage at some point and neither state amounts to a hill of beans as both are within variation observed in the past.
I’m not so interested in the final number as to the reason why it’s below average, or why it’s not in a death spiral as many have predicted.*
* That’s the thing with predictions. If you are foolish enough to put a concrete, falsifiable/verifiable prediction out there in the public domain, you deserve to get a little melted permafrost thrown on your face. Better to give a vague time-frame a decade or two in the future, when nobody remembers or cares what you predicted when. On the other hand, the major media which breathlessly reported your prediction can’t be bothered to report upon it’s accuracy.
Latitude says: September 15, 2011 at 11:56 am
“second lowest….means it has not melted more…..it still has not melted more……it has melted less”
1) If you believe the estimates of VOLUME, there is less volume than 2007, which would mean it has melted more … melted more … melted more.
2) Only a fool expects every year to set a record for least ice (or highest global temperature), even in a continually warming world. Come back in 5 years or 20 years and lets see how it is doing. I anticipate a trend toward less ice, but only time will tell if we are “turning a corner” or “pausing on the way down” or simply “settling at a new ‘normal’ “. Just like only time will tell if the global temperature is “turning a corner” or “pausing on the way up” or simply “settling at a new ‘normal’ “.
As a Biologist and Life-Advocate, I am a little sad that poorer weather for living things has to be celebrated as “good news.”
Instead of the graphs with several recent years from the same source I would like to see graphs in sources are compared. e.g. Bremen, IARC, DMI, etc. for each year.
iOW which track closely and which differ.
I have no idea how to do it myself. Might try, but don’t hold your breath for that.
Just two weeks ago, Tamino pronounced the Death Spiral alive and well saying “…this much is abundantly clear: the (downward) trend continues. The reason: global warming. But I’ll make another prediction: if 2011 doesn’t break the 2007 record, then some fake skeptics will refer to the continuing decline as a “recovery,” and/or find an excuse to explain away this year’s appallingly low value as a weather phenomenon in hopes of drawing attention away from the trend. Probably at WUWT.”
Any word from Dr. Death Spiral himself, Mark Serreze?
“Lady Life Grows says:
September 15, 2011 at 12:30 pm
As a Biologist and Life-Advocate, I am a little sad that poorer weather for living things has to be celebrated as “good news.””
I understand what you mean but remember it is the warmists who tell us a little warming will be catastrophic for those living things – so naturally we rejoice when it doesn’t warm. sarc/off