UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2011: +0.31 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
Post-La Nina Warming Continues
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for June, 2011 increased to +0.31 deg. C (click on the image for a LARGE version):
The Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, and and Tropics all experienced temperature anomaly increases in June:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.314 +0.377 +0.251 +0.235
I would like to remind everyone that month-to-month changes in global-average tropospheric temperature have a large influence from fluctuations in the average rate of heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. In other words, they are not of radiative origin (e.g. not from greenhouse gases). El Nino/La Nina is probably the most dramatic example of this kind of activity, but there are also “intraseasonal oscillations” in the ocean-atmosphere energy exchanges occurring on an irregular basis, too.
YEARLY temperature averages probably provide a better indication of the existence of radiative forcings on the climate system (whether warming or cooling). Nevertheless, we must remember that even DECADAL time scale (or longer) changes in the ocean circulation could also be involved, which can cause long-term climate change independent of any kind of greenhouse gas (or cosmic ray-induced) radiative forcing. (That last sentence has not been approved by the IPCC…but I don’t really care.)
For those interested, about a week and a half ago, I posted the Preliminary Reynolds OI.v2 SST anomalies for June 2011:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/06/27/very-preliminary-june-2011-sst-anomaly-update/
The data for June will be official on Monday, July 11th. I’ll provide the full monthly update then. NINO3.4 SST anomalies are presently a little above zero, but still well within ENSO-neutral range.
New la nina on the way then, ocean releasing energy and sub surface cooling at the moment.
Weather or Not?
Whether weather is climate or whether it’s not,
depends on whether it’s cold or it’s hot.
If it’s cold it’s just weather, whether or not
it’s cold all the time and never gets hot.
If it’s hot it’s the climate, whether or not
it was cold yesterday and just now it got hot.
So, weather is climate whenever it’s hot,
but climate is weather whenever it’s not.
All that anomaly did not feel so warm up north.
Can anyone here look at that chart and say, seriously, “no warming since 1998”?
Just asking…
The current warming is from the rebound from La Nina, which looked like an incipient el Nino (and was proclaimed as such by some) but right now the south Pacific looks more likely to turn back to a La Nina phase. More cool water is upwelling along the Peru coast. So this warming might be short-lived.
So, if the ENSO is slightly above neutral, why is the WUWT ENSO meter stuck at 1.2? That widget doesn’t seem to be working
Well, I’m jealous. You heard me–jealous! Somebody else has been getting the warmth and it hasn’t been me. Where I live, garden veggies didn’t grow much at all in June; indeed, I had to re-plant some varieties due to frost. The mountains in all directions around me are still white with snow; the rivers are still at flood stage. I suppose I should be happy there wasn’t more frost and less flooding. I’m not. I’m jealous. Can someone help me out?…. Where has all the warm weather been?
This is a big bounce.
About the same temperature as 20 years ago (SST is looking like 1991 also). If the ocean oscillations theory holds, this temperature anomaly can be expected to bounce up and down several tenths of a degree, as it has all along, around an average +0.1°C, until about 2030. Meanwhile, there is no greenhouse effect, so there will likely be a revolution in climate science rather than in climate.
@John B: Seriously, yes. Take a ruler and set the left side on the FWHM on the left side of the 1998 el Nino. Draw a line straight across to the right and see it essentially bisects the temp data from 1998 to today. i.e. no net upward temp. trend.
Yes —> http://softestpawn.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/hansen_a.gif
Where can I get that warming? Is it on Ebay or Amazon?
Ireland “The island has lush vegetation, a product of its mild but changeable oceanic climate, which avoids extremes in temperature.”
June 2011 was officially the coldest June for the last 39 years. 1 C below normal. The sunshine hours were above normal but the temperature didn’t match it. How come?
My cherry tree had also a problem with the climate. The cherries didn’t ripe well this year.
john B.
the no warming since 1998 “meme” will soon be forgotten. And we can get to the important questions
John B: even if you are correct (there is a warming) can anyone here say, seriously, that it cannot be due to a natural cause?
Here in Northern Alberta, Canada, it’s been COLD. At night it feels more like early September you can feel the extremely quick cooling soon as the sun sets. Now, if someone here could tell me exactly where this magical warming is occurring I would like to hire their magicians to perform said miracles in this part of the world. And its not only here – my wife and myself have been riding in the Rockey mountains on our Harleys and there is very little ice melt from the glaciers completely unlike it was around ten years ago. My wife and myself both remarked on the meager melt – never saw anything like that before in all the years I’ve been riding in the mountains. Matter of fact I have the photos of brand new snow on glaciers all over the Rockies. So pray tell where is this magical warming? That is in light of the heavy flooding from snow record breaking snow packs and the flooding all over the prairies down through the US as well.
I’ll believe in UFOs and aliens kidnappings long before I believe these temperatures reflect every point on the planet at the same time – not before! Like we say here in Canada – because its hot in Toronto means nothing to the other 3.5 million square miles of Canada. However listening to Toronto the world really IS gonna end by next Thursday.
Bill Kropla says:
July 7, 2011 at 9:51 am
Weather or Not?
Lovely indeed.
John B:
I agree with Michael Monce, it looks like essentially no change. What are you getting at?
MikeEE
To John B – your are correct, there is certainly cooling if 1998 is selected as the starting year. Starting with 1998 is a bit of cherry picking. Good observation.
To say it’s been flat is much fairer than saying there has been cooling.
Michael Monce says:
…….
Michael, draw that same line but start with 1997 or 1999….. What do you find?
By the way… Picking a start year and end year, then connecting the dots is not the proper way to determine trends…
Bill Kropla says:
July 7, 2011 at 9:51 am
“Weather or Not?
Whether weather is climate or whether it’s not,
depends on whether it’s cold or it’s hot.
If it’s cold it’s just weather, whether or not
it’s cold all the time and never gets hot.
If it’s hot it’s the climate, whether or not
it was cold yesterday and just now it got hot.
So, weather is climate whenever it’s hot,
but climate is weather whenever it’s not.”
EXCELLENT!!!!!!!!!! Encore!!!
I have said it before and I will keep saying it, the UAH anomalies do not fit with the real world temperatures. South America is cold, Australia is cold, North America is cold, Europe is not warmer than normal, in fact the UK is cold. The Oceans are normal, so just where is all this heat that gives us a World anomaly of 0.31C?
John B says:
Can anyone here look at that chart and say, seriously, “no warming since 1998″?
++++++++
There has been no warming since 1998. Given that 1998 was an El Nino year, most serious commenters bother to look to when the warming stopped and it was about 1995 (or even 1995). Since the temperatures in the past 10 years are slightly higher than in 1995, why do they say that? Because in order to capture a global temperature value, many edits of actual measurements must be made, some subjective, some arbitrary, some rational. This results in a value with an attendant error bar. If the error bar (which is not shown above) were seen and understood, the temperature change would have to be ‘significant’ before being delcared to be different (up or down). The use of the term ‘significant’ is not arbitrary nor subjective. It has a technical meaning to do with variation based not on the actual temperature, whatever it is, but with the methods and known error bars. For example temperatures read to plus or minus 0.25 degrees cannot give a result that is plus or minus 0.2 degrees and certainly not 0.211 degrees. A calculation method may provide an answer, but it is not able to reduce the intrinsic errors of each input or conversion or projection over surface area (etc). That is why they are called intrinsic errors. They are part of the source number or calculation method.
Presuming that the measurement resolution in 1998 is the same as in 2011, there has, seriously, been no global temperature rise in 13 years.
According to IPCC projections, we are already as much as 0.78 degrees behind – a rise approximately equal to that of the past century. This failure of reality to match prediction is held by some (skeptics) to be further proof that the modelled heating from AG CO2 is erroneous. Others, AGW proponents, hold that there is an on-going, steep natural variation (cooling) that brought the rise to a halt, that this halt is temporary, and when the cooling phase reverses, temperatures will rise very rapidly to ‘catch up’. Critics of this view hold that if natural variation is so powerful, over-riding the AG CO2 as it is claimed to have done, then perhaps the calculated forcing for CO2 is in error (high) and recent 1975-1995 warming was also largely cause by natural variation. Pro-AGW commenters such as at RealClimate have, in most cases, responded to these critics by saying, “Your mother wears Army boots!” or words with similar gravitas and relevance.
Also, John, you will not find people seriously claiming, “The global average temperature has risen since 1998.” because no credible data supports such a contention.
The Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, and and Tropics all experienced temperature anomaly increases in June
Not jolly ol’ England:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETjun.htm
RockyRoad says:
July 7, 2011 at 10:43 am
Well, I’m jealous. You heard me–jealous! Somebody else has been getting the warmth and it hasn’t been me.
We’ve been getting that warmth down here in New Zealand. One of the warmest Junes on record and our ski fields are a month late in opening, but we do recognise it as weather, not climate. Across the Tasman they have had heavy and early snow, so Australia makes up for it.