UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2011: +0.31 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
Post-La Nina Warming Continues
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for June, 2011 increased to +0.31 deg. C (click on the image for a LARGE version):
The Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, and and Tropics all experienced temperature anomaly increases in June:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.314 +0.377 +0.251 +0.235
I would like to remind everyone that month-to-month changes in global-average tropospheric temperature have a large influence from fluctuations in the average rate of heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. In other words, they are not of radiative origin (e.g. not from greenhouse gases). El Nino/La Nina is probably the most dramatic example of this kind of activity, but there are also “intraseasonal oscillations” in the ocean-atmosphere energy exchanges occurring on an irregular basis, too.
YEARLY temperature averages probably provide a better indication of the existence of radiative forcings on the climate system (whether warming or cooling). Nevertheless, we must remember that even DECADAL time scale (or longer) changes in the ocean circulation could also be involved, which can cause long-term climate change independent of any kind of greenhouse gas (or cosmic ray-induced) radiative forcing. (That last sentence has not been approved by the IPCC…but I don’t really care.)
PeterGeorge says:
July 7, 2011 at 12:45 pm
I look at the above graph and see 1) No trend from 1979-1998, 2) A 0.2 to 0.3 step after 1998, and 3) No reason to feel confident we won’t get another step of similar magnitude within the next few years, in spite of the negative PDO and very low solar activity.
If that happens, I sure hope direct CO2 capture and sequestration ( CCS ) has made a lot of progress
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Does anyone have a hypothesis as to how a steady increase in atmospheric CO2 can result in flat temperature trends with step changes very decade or two?
We’ll have to see where it goes from here. The temperature has swung down half a degree and then back up half a degree all in the span of several months. With that much variability how do you even declare that temperatures have gone up 0.7 degrees since such and such time?
The non-nino years of the last decade had a lot of mini-peaks between 0.3 and 0.4. If we stay at 0.3 and go down then it will look even more like the temperature has not increased since ’98. If we cross 0.4 more than once over the next couple years it will look like the temperature is increasing – albeit slower than “predicted.”
@ur momisugly A. C. Osborn
“…so just where is all this heat that gives us a World anomaly of 0.31C?”
It’s ‘in-the-pipeline’…
The climate market indicators suggest a short term bullish period for warming, my recommendation is to buy “warming”, and short “cooling” for the short term, be prepared to hedge your trades in the longer term as the climate market long term indicators are bearish with the possibility of a new LIA.
If the market indicators turn to the cooling side, short “Warming” and go long “Cooling”.
steven mosher says: the no warming since 1998 “meme” will soon be forgotten. And we can get to the important questions
Not around here, I fear, judging by some of the comments above.
robb876: Also, a step function is not how the AGW models predict the temps should behave. It should be rising in a linear fashion, reflecting the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. To have credibility, a model has to model behavior — and the current ones don’t do that well at all.
Meanwhile, from the end-of-the-interglacial WoW department:
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/176220/20110707/polar-bear-irish-ireland-dna.htm
If it is true that the Polar Bear descended from Irish Brown bears … then that means the pack used to extend to Ireland (at very least). When will it do so again?
Well, that didn’t last too long. And right back to 2002-2008 temps.
Well, we’ll see here in a few more months if we’re more or less steady-state around 2002-2008 again.
Certainly no relentless increase.
Jeremy: While your point is taken about temperature lagging predictions, you linked a chart from two years ago. The question was, can you look at the current data and say no warming.
I can’t see the warming myself, but that’s because 1998 is chosen as a specific date to make it look like there’s less warming.
The Ocean cycles are actually providing a positive impact (or close to neutral impact) on temperatures right now.
Nino 3.4 in March was -0.98C –> which has a coefficient of 0.07 —> -0.07C
AMO index in June was about +0.22 —> coefficient of 0.5 —> +0.11C
net —-> +0.04C
Here are the weekly Nino 3.4 and AMO values from 1981 to last week.
http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/9634/weeklyensoamojun2911.png
StuartMcL says:
“Does anyone have a hypothesis as to how a steady increase in atmospheric CO2 can result in flat temperature trends with step changes very decade or two?”
We’d need some kind of 11 year cycle. Nothing springs to mind.
You can do all that on Intrade: https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90488
John B says:
July 7, 2011 at 4:02 pm
steven mosher says: the no warming since 1998 “meme” will soon be forgotten. And we can get to the important questions
Not around here, I fear, judging by some of the comments above. ))
JB. The comments around here are trying to get through to you what was written in the article. READ IT AGAIN>>>>
((I would like to remind everyone that month-to-month changes in global-average tropospheric temperature have a large influence from fluctuations in the average rate of heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. In other words, they are not of radiative origin (e.g. not from greenhouse gases). ))
Read the last paragraph. again. And again. It is about the oceans losing heat. Not gaining heat in other words….. If your religion tells you otherwise, go for it, it is your right. You are trying to ascribe the warmth to (gasp) CO2 since 1998. Fail
regards
“Southern Hemisphere….experienced temperature anomaly (increase) in June”
Where? In Australia, the June anomaly was -0.7 degC. It followed the coldest autumn for at least 60 years.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=06&ave_yr=0
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=0305&ave_yr=0
“”””” John B says:
July 7, 2011 at 9:59 am
Can anyone here look at that chart and say, seriously, “no warming since 1998″?
Just asking… “””””
Well I do believe that “that chart” mentions the “lower troposphere Temperature.” What on earth would that have to do with the avereage Temperature of the earth, which is set by solar energy stored in mostly the ocean.
Unless you believe that the vaporous atmosphere can “warm” the surface with LWIR EM radiation that has a typical source Temperature of about 288 K, and isn’t even detectable as “heat” by human sensory mechanisms. And conductive and convective heating of the surface is the wrong way round; both are far more likely to transport heat the other direction.
Try holding an ordinary 12 oz bottle of even tap water adjacent to but not in contact with your skin, and feel the radiant heat pouring off that source at about 390 W/m^2.
Yes the lower troposphere may have warmed; that is far different from the earth having warmed. And the sun is perfectly capable of warmng the LT when water vapor is around; and that warming comes at the expense of solar spectrum energy reaching the surface, where it could warm the surface.
So a warming LT is highly likely to be accompanied by a cooling surface.
Since you are just asking…
Well “global lower atmosphere” which I believe is called the “troposphere” but I can live with “global lower atmosphere”.
Have a look at these – Going to the Sun Road
Summer 2005 – http://www.flickr.com/photos/83791520@N00/3918550154/
Summer 2011 – http://www.flickr.com/photos/glaciernps
QED – ????
Steve Mosher: “the no warming since 1998 “meme” will soon be forgotten. And we can get to the important questions”
What is wrong with you lately, Mosher?
John B. “Can anyone here look at that chart and say, seriously, “no warming since 1998″?”
Maybe! Just hung out a new chart. Here is what it looks like from beginning of 98 through the end of May. It’s the second chart. The first was made with 2009 data.
http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2011/07/rss-and-uah-divergence-charts.html
I believe that RSS and UAH are in the process of working out a recent divergence. So it’s a little hard to tell exactly what we have at the moment. I’m not calling it one way or the other. But I do know that what we don’t come close to having is the .2C per decade of warming that the IPCC predicts.
Couldn’t you compare the trend over months? E.g. This June to the 30 before it? And July, et cetera.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2012/every/offset:%20/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2012/trend/plot/uah/from:1979/to:1998/trend/plot/uah/from:1998/to:2012/trend
Better comparison
June 2006 – http://www.flickr.com/photos/jacdupree/178695793/
steven mosher says:
July 7, 2011 at 7:32 pm
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2012/every/offset:%20/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2012/trend/plot/uah/from:1979/to:1998/trend/plot/uah/from:1998/to:2012/trend
===========================
I see 1/2 of a 60-70 year cycle.
What do you see ?
As we fall into this solar minimum.
@Mosher No one is debating the earlier trend Mosher. We were only talking about what happened since 98. And you know that John B’s question wasn’t just related to UAH. Like I said, UAH and RSS have to work out a divergence problem right now. But even if you use UAH, you still only get about 1/4 of the IPCC’s predicted warming. So your snide “meme” remark is still hugely misplaced.
WOH>. .. what happened to the image?
Well I got two tomatoes this year, not that where I live is a good place to grow tomatoes as it
is a temperate region 3,500 ft about sea level, and we have had an extremely cold winter
FOR AUSTRALIA. Even in Sydney the temps have been colder than normal. But the government
still insist they are following what the rest of the world (?) is doing by introducing a carbon tax.
There climate change commission headed by Tim Flannery has used Mann and the IPCC data
to base their ‘The Critical Decade’ report to government and then added a disclaimer on page
2 that they couldn’t be held responsible for any inaccuracies. But the PM and the treasurer
are members of the Australian Fabian society. Need I say more. Help us down under please.