Some surprising sanity from one of the most insane places on the web. This could be a Nike ad, all it needs is a swoosh to go with the slogan. Joe Romm and Bill McKibben, this message is for you from your kossack in arms.
From the “weatherdude” at Daily Kos:
Here’s a further excerpt:
I’ve said it a few times (much to the dismay of many), but the tornadoes this year do not indicate a growing trend. If we have numerous tornado oubreaks of this intensity in the decade, THEN it’s a worrying trend. Until then, stop with the talking point positioning. We know climate change is happening, but to say that the tornadoes were a direct result without the trend of tornado outbreaks with this intensity to back it up is a really big freakin’ leap.
If this shit happens again next year, and the year after that, I’ll go into full mea culpa mode. But until then, stop it. It weakens our argument to scream “CLIMATE CHANGE ZOMG!” every time something bad happens. It takes trends over years to make this argument. Trends equal climate, events equal weather.
Earlier today someone posted a diary saying that the heat burst in Wichita, KS this week was “the beginning” of some more nefarious climate stuff happening. No it’s not! As I said in the diary’s comments, heat bursts are a well documented natural phenomenon that’s happened ever since thunderstorms started. The tl;dr explanation is that dry air got into the thunderstorm as it collapsed (all the rain/hail upstairs falls down at once because the storm can’t support it anymore), and the rain evaporated and made the dry air cooler. As it got cooler, it got denser, and fell to the ground. As it fell, it compressed and heated up, hit the ground, made the temperatures rise in a hurry and created 50-60 MPH winds.
That’s it. That’s what happened. It didn’t happen because the oceans are warming or the ice caps are melting or because BP fucking sucks. It happened because the updraft could no longer support a column of precipitation, it fell, heated up and dispersed at ground level. It’s not climate change and it weakens our argument to call it climate change, so stop it. Just because you don’t understand why something is happening doesn’t mean you should run to the nearest public forum and shout the first thing that comes to your mind.
WUWT covered the Wichita heat burst here, and I agree with the analysis he printed above.
For basic science on the issues of the tornado outbreaks this year, may I suggest these two WUWT essays: