Let’s hope he does get out of the wrong side of the bed.
The current sunspot count and 10.7 cm radio flux have increased in the latest NOAA SWPC graphs, shown below. but curiously, the Ap magnetic index remains low.
Current solar status:
Geomagnetic conditions:
From Spaceweather.com : X-FLARE: March 9th ended with a powerful solar flare. Earth-orbiting satellites detected an X1.5-class explosion from behemoth sunspot 1166 around 2323 UT. A movie from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a bright flash of UV radiation plus some material being hurled away from the blast site:
Movie formats: 4 MB gif, 1.2 MB iPad, 0.3 MB iPhone
A first look at coronagraph images from NASA’s STEREO-B spacecraft suggests that the explosion did propel a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. This conclusion is preliminary, however, so check back later for updates.
After four years without any X-flares, the sun has produced two of the powerful blasts in less than one month: Feb. 15th and March 9th. This continues the recent trend of increasing solar activity, and shows that Solar Cycle 24 is heating up. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours.
Here’s sunspot group 1166 visible in this SDO image:
Here’s the X-ray flux, the flare was just barely and x-class:
Here’s the latest monthly data from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC):
Note that the Ap Index did not show similar gains.
As always, complete solar coverage at WUWT’s solar reference page
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Being we are nearing the middle of the solar minimum cycle, it is time to see just how a solar minimum conducts itself and take good notes.
so do we duck n cover yet:-)?
Chuck says:
March 10, 2011 at 6:50 am
Being we are nearing the middle of the solar minimum cycle, it is time to see just how a solar minimum conducts itself and take good notes.
Depends on what you mean by ‘minimum cycle’. Solar minimum was more than two years ago, so it is about time Sol wakes up. In fact, the north polar fields have already reversed [which they do near solar max].
Or is the sun just grumbling in its sleep before rolling over and going back to snoring? 🙂
Looks like Hathaway’s latest, adjusted, prediction in January for SSN of 58 at the maximum is likely. If one takes the ISES graph above and moves the prediction curve down to where it might likely join with reality, and one gets this:
http://i51.tinypic.com/20uqqh4.jpg
It takes a few days for coronal mass ejections to reach as far as the Earth.
Since it’s still rotating as fast as the Sun’s surface I predict it will miss us.
Just don’t send me bills for any damage if I’m wrong.
So, Leif, are you saying that the sun is now at or near the solar max? If so, what happens next? That does not sound good at all…and would appear to auger for a very quiet sun for a long time.
Could you clarify and expand, please.
Thanks!
This may well be further confirmation of a solar minimum.
I recall reading somewhere that CMEs increase during solar minimums. I had asked this of Leif S but he couldn’t confirm as there just isn’t (enough) evidence.
It will also be interesting to see how extreme weather events develop this month. More cyclones and earthquakes anyone?
@Dale Rainwater. Svalgaard
Are we near the peak of this cycle, then? Will it match the predicted values or will it edge higher?
Leif, you were saying the north pole fields have already reversed. Any chance at all this is near 24’s maximum? The butterfly plots sure don’t look like it’s possible, but also I’ve never seen a weird formed one either. Wonder what they would have looked like back in the 1600’s.
BobW in NC says:
March 10, 2011 at 7:26 am
Could you clarify and expand, please.
Recycled from anothr thread:
“There is a fair amount of activity, so the Sun is out of the minimum phase. If this much activity is still only in the ascending phase, then maximum will be rather higher [not what we would expect fro the polar fields during the past minimum]. The polar fields at the North pole have already reversed, and the South polar fields have decreased considerably. The reversal is ‘usually’ [but has only been observed for about eight cycles] timed near maximum. So, these things together seem to justify a ‘welcome’ [although the maximum might be a protracted affair like in cycle 14 with wild swings up and down]. Since after the reversal there ‘usually’ are several more ‘surges’ of new polarity flux arriving in the polar caps, there is the possibility that the polar fields might build to be stronger’ than at the recent minimum, leading to the prediction that solar cycle 25 might not be an extremely low cycle, but of moderate size [a tad larger than SC24], a la cycle 15 after 14. This is, of course, only [well-founded] speculation, but makes life interesting.”
Sean Peake says:
March 10, 2011 at 7:32 am
Are we near the peak of this cycle, then? Will it match the predicted values or will it edge higher?
Too early to tell. Other weak cycles, e.g. cycle 14 http://www.leif.org/research/SC14.png also had large swings up and down.
Given the stench of bad science that pervades AGWism, it won’t be long before the CO2 nutters claim that the Sun’s extended solar minimum is due to global warming.
Dear Leif Svalgaard,
Thank you for writing.
There are two minimums I observed in the last 300 years of SIDC data. One is the numeric minimums as the end of cycles that might stretch, if the sunspot cycles are robust such as 1934 to 1953, into the first year of following cycles.
However, Joseph D’Aleo points out that the first part of each century tends to begin with a two-cycle minimum, one being we are familiar with, the Dalton Minimum. Presently, this cycle is falling numerically in between the 1700 minimum and the 1798 to 1823 minimum.
If Mr. D’Aleo is correct in his Observations, this minimum will stretch out into 2030.
Chuck
I fear this ‘re-awakening’ may be old Sol having a grumble and a scratch before rolling over for another nap. Another two to six months should tell us.
I’m going to keep a close eye on solar windspeeds as we approach Jupiter perigree on the 19th.
Dr David Hathaway has reduced his forecast again.
The SC 24 will be very long. No maximum before 2014/15
BobW in NC says: what happens next?
Ancient astronomers established that the sun is under the influence of a diurnal cycle that ensures the solar disc returns to an inclination above the oriental visual horizon… based upon these historical observations astrophysicists have managed to develop a complex computer model that predicts the solar disc will then proceed to traverse the illuminated hemisphere until such time as it declines below the occidental horizon.
The astrophysicists have stressed their confidence in the predictive powers of their computer model. However, should additional funding be forthcoming they will establish a worldwide network of observatories to measure and validate their predictions. However, this is not easy to achieve in the modern urban environment so it is proposed that these observatories will be established on calm equatorial beaches that support unimpeded visual access to the either the oriental or occidental horizon.
If the GCR/cloud hypothesis has any merit and we’re near solar maximum for this cycle there’s trouble ahead both for the GHG warming hypothesis and for civilization. People are going to figure out real fast (if they don’t already know) that a warming is good for us and cooling is bad for us.
tallbloke says:
March 10, 2011 at 8:41 am
“I fear this ‘re-awakening’ may be old Sol having a grumble and a scratch before rolling over for another nap.”
Sol’s going on five billion years old. He’s just getting up in the middle of the night to take a leak. I can sympathize with that.
Fergal: Why would a flare continue to rotate as fast as the sun’s surface, once it had left the sun? For it to do that, it would have to be accelerating at an enormous rate.
(The further away from the sun a particle gets, the more miles it has to cover in order to traverse the same number of arc seconds.) This means that in terms of miles per hour, it has to continue to accelerate as it gets further from the sun. Where does the energy for this acceleration come from?
Currently geomagnetic field is getting seriously shaken:
http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Last24&site=tro2a&
what is most interesting is that that Sun’s magnetic field, the AP index, is not budging, still staying at 5 or less, and solar winds remain very low. Flux has moved up considerably. Will the AP index similarly increase?
Please ignore – just wanting to follow comments
@Malaga View:
Ancient astronomers established that the sun is under the influence of a diurnal cycle that ensures the solar disc returns to an inclination above the oriental visual horizon…
it is proposed that… observatories will be established on calm equatorial beaches that support unimpeded visual access to the either the oriental or occidental horizon.”
Well played. Do you write grant proposals by any chance?
JamesS says: Do you write grant proposals by any chance?
No… but I do try to read NASA Press Releases….