Note the black dot:
Source:
http://chartsgraphs.wordpress.com/
Looking at Dr. Roy Spencer’s daily UAH plotter, comparing to last year at this time, globally we are nearly a full degree Fahrenheit cooler:
So far, much of January (red) has been below the average line (orange) for the data set since 2002. It is not in record territory yet for this dataset but with 1/4 degree.
My SWAG for the January average UAH value is -0.12°C. We’ll know in a few days when Dr. Spencer posts.
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January 2008 was even cooler than what January 2011 is shaping up to be, by the way, so it’s not a particularly extraordinary result in my opinion.
It’s true that it will contribute lowering the mid-term trend, though.
Well the oceans are cooling so a fall in GAT is to be expected. The UAH figures do not agree with NASA but I am not surprised.
An unbelievable amount of water vapour was generated so far this winter by the ocean heat in the Arctic. Which means a great deal of solar reflection has occurred. Looks like a great deal of rain this summer and cooler temperatures again.
Heard through the grape vine that Lisbon is going well!
In my mind after going through ‘the warmest year ever’, though it probably was the 2nd or 3rd warmest since satellites came out, starting off the next year below average is pretty substantial
An exceptionally cold year in comparison to model predictions, say the coldest year since Pinatubo, would really bring the debate into the open. They would try, of course, but it would be very difficult to explain it away while maintaining an alarmist pose.
Its really interesting considering that this La-Nina is not a record setter, and the Atlantic is still considerably warm. It must be the PDO negative phase in conjunction with the a continued moderate decrease in TSI.
Joe Lalonde says:
January 28, 2011 at 4:10 am
How much water vapour can be generated with an air temperature of ~ -20°C and a water temperature of -4°C ? I do not know the energy of sublimation for salt water but am aware that some energy from the sun may be lost by Bragg reflection. What are your thoughts?
couple of volcanos may drop it further?
Let me protest – feebly – that my distaste in the “2010 will be the warmest year ever” stories back in October is somewhat shared in this “January temp may be below normal globally” story.
OTOH, in the former case, the authors may have figured they better make hay while the La Niña temps hadn’t set in and did so 9/12th of the way into the year, whereas we’re expecting little change in UAH readings and are 27/31st of the way through the month. 0.75 vs 0.87.
So, let’s take this as notice that Puxsatawny Phil will have some scientific competition for the news in a few days.
Time to sketch out a letter to the editor of your local newspaper.
It’s remarkable!
I remember something equally strange in Jan (feb?) 2008. It was the coldest Jan in 14 years – and I began to wonder whether somehow the “warmer” readings could be brought forward a month leaving the cooler ones to the next month: so in attempting to make 2007 exceptionally warm, they had to make Jan 2008 particularly cold.
I’m not clear what the mechanism might be – perhaps there’s some kind of calibration regime (on reflection seems unlikely) and they purposely picked the colder ones to calibrate Dec in preference to warmer ones which then got calibrated in Jan.
Then we see the same thing again in Jan 2010 … there’s no doubt there was the incentive to make the first decade of the 21st century have a warming trend!
So when we’re told that a “warming world means more snow”, we can now reply, “What warmth? Where exactly is all this heat that is supposed to be causing all this cold?”
Leron says:
January 28, 2011 at 4:53 am
Its really interesting considering that this La-Nina is not a record setter, and the Atlantic is still considerably warm. It must be the PDO negative phase in conjunction with the a continued moderate decrease in TSI.
It is not a record setter in the terms of the narrow equatorial boxes that make up ENSO 3.4 But the area of low SSTs is a lot greater than that narrow box. Compare the SST anomaly maps at http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-110123.gif
Especially note not only the wider spread of cold water in the Pacific but also how cold the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic is, including the cold SST that have caused the rains in Brazil. Look at the _cold_ ‘Gulf Stream’ (North Atlantic Drift) is that going to be keeping Europe warm?
What is ‘normal’ anyway
a 30 year baseline is just a convention based on a classical understanding of climate..
When there are observed 60 years cycles in the climate. at some point the average is at the top of a cycle, bottom, or a rising or falling trend.. thus creating anomalies that mean potentially nothing..
A 60 year base line or a hundred would be better, but still not ideal.
But I thought CO2 trapped all the heat. Was I miss informed? /sarc off…
Where did all the energy from last year go? It had to have been trapped in the troposphere, but is it missing?
Others and myself who have followed the UAH daily plotter (for channel 5) have noticed that the average of the daily anomalies does not equal what Dr. Spencer reports for the monthly figure. The last time I did the math, the November average of daily anomalies was noticeably lower than Dr. Spencer report for November. I have not seen an explanation why. See http://troyca.wordpress.com/2010/12/03/aqua-ch5-daily-vs-uah-monthly/ for a graph of how the two correspond to one another.
Anthony, I don,t know if you’ve caught this but if you haven’t it’s up there for the friday funny! Enjoy!
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/01/27/personal_carbon_trading_blow/
Whatever the temperature does, warm, cold, rising , sinking, the only explanation will be climate change.
The politicians will say: The climate change discussion isn’t the subject anymore, we are more interested in the energy discussion.
That’s why we have agreed to reduce the CO2 emissions by 20% and that’s why we support clean energies like bio-fuels, wind and solar because we want to promote energy independence form foreign imports.
That is our view, discussion closed.
Think Obama’s last speech.
You can’t win this war, without kicking some people very hard where it hurts most.
Anthony,
I’m sorry, I should have apologised for this being off topic but I found it so amusing and knew not where to put it – just to give a taste from the always reliable uk tech mag The Register:
Heroic London carbon trading scheme fails
“I have measured out my life with coffee spoons” – TS Eliot
It is with dismay that we bring you sad news from one of Britain’s most self-righteous boroughs. In Islington, the location for the Private Eye comic strip “It’s Grim Up North London”, the area’s ‘Carbon Rationing Action Group’ has decided to call it a day. Group members will no longer measure everything they do and exchange the vital information.
“After four years, three complete accounting years, the Islington and Hackney CRAG [Carbon Rationing Action Group] is no longer settling (ie, buying and selling carbon every six months, anymore),” writes John Ackers, a “CRAG-er”. That old enemy of sustainability – couldntgiveafuckability – has dealt the movement a setback.
“Four of us wanted to keep going, but two dropped out and two weren’t very good at doing the data-gathering,” Ackers explains.
CRAGS are a “growing network of carbon conscious citizens”, according to the movement’s website. The Islington Craggers – all eight of them – had adopted a personal carbon trading. This combines two ideas: rationing, and a virtual currency that allows participants to exchange credits.
But there were musical differences, too…
“At least one person in our group, our lowest emitter, thinks that we shouldn’t trade between ourselves at all.”
And there was also perhaps the faintest glimmer of a realisation that the exercise was, on balance, an epic waste of time.
“As a group, we achieved some reduction in carbon emissions but it was less than 10 per cent per year,” notes Ackers, before noting that “the other big lesson for me is that 5p per kg of CO2 has virtually no impact on the lifestyle of a typical middle-class, middle-income Londoner.”
And passim. I promise you, it is no joke, however ironicaly reported. Life of Brian or what? And the coup de grace is actually the perfect quote from T.S.Eliot at the top of the article. If you knew Islington, you’d understand but let us say, Greenwich Village has nothing on it! Hope not to OTT and OT?
Warmer then 2008, cooler then 2009. I’ll go with 0.0 +/- .05
Totally off topic, but the Telegraph is reporting today Himalayan Glaciers are actually growing. Can’t wait to hear how this is really a hidden sign of AGW!
My prediction for the UAH January 2011 anomaly is +0.06 deg C, obtained from Channel 5 by a comparison with January 2010.
What I liked about 2010 being “the hottest year on the record” / “one of the hottest years on the record” is because any substantial cooling will look even more pronounced this year. It might be a tough year for the temperature adjusters. ;O)
Won’t the warmists pass this temperature decline as a great success of limiting carbon emissions?
Here in Minnesota, a 2C increase in a century is too little too late. We need 20C tomorrrow!
This sort of thing is embarassing to the warmists, more than they can adjust or explain away. All we need now is another whistleblower to leak a few more emails and the house of cards will fall flat.