Early reports from the Lisbon conference

Dr. Judith Curry added a couple of comments on her blog while attending the Lisbon Workshop on Reconciliation in the Climate Change Debate. For those wondering why I’m not there even though invited, and to see a rationale for the report, please see my previous post: The hope of Lisbon

I’m sure there will be more coming. I’m looking forward to hearing from Steven Mosher on the event. Dr. Curry’s comments follow.

Had an interesting dinner with Tallbloke, McIntyre, McKitrick, Webster, Mosher, Stokes. If anyone is concerned by an insufficient diversity of perspectives, well I don’t think you need to be too concerned.

The morning session is in progress, with each participant making a 5 minute statement. There are genuinely a diversity of perspectives here, about a third of the participants are physical scientists with some knowledge of climate science, whereas the majority are social scientists (with a few journalists).

The meeting is being run under Chatham House rules. A few points that have caught my interest so far:

• dealing with complex problems using complex tools, ideas

• the idea of reconciliation in scientific debates is to try different approaches in an experimental meeting for attempting nonviolent communication in impassioned debates where there is disagreement

• reconciliation is not about consensus, but rather creating an arena where we can have honest disagreement

• violence in this debate derives from the potential impacts of climate change and the policy options, and differing political and cultural notions of risk and responsibility.

• disagreement in climate science is more violent than other fields where there is much disagreement and high societal stakes (e.g. economics). One person attributed the violence of the disagreement in climate science to the propensity of scientific societies to publish position statements, and the IPCC itself; these create animosity and hostility through the exercise of power without sufficient accountability.

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Jeremy
January 26, 2011 6:44 am

The violence in the debate comes from the presumed moral super-high-ground that the believers think they occupy. They are wholly convinced that their point of view will save the world if enough people agree with them. This situation with climate science is nearly identical to a religion in this regard. Some people have placed too much importance on their own view of the universe and they regard those who disagree as heathens, and those who “spread disagreement” as the devil himself.

kim
January 26, 2011 6:46 am

Emerge from shadows,
Sing serendipitous songs.
Do re me fado.
===========

January 26, 2011 6:53 am

My favourite pedantry; “Chatam House Rule”, singular.

wws
January 26, 2011 6:54 am

The only “reconciliation” I want to see is when the warmists have to “reconcile” themselves to seeing all their funding cut off and knowing that their movement has become a laughingstock for the next several generations.
there is no such thing as “honest disagreement” with those who are not honest.

John S.
January 26, 2011 6:54 am

The meeting is being run under Chatham House rules
I admit I had to Google that one. Apparently, there is only one Chatham House Rule, and it is:
When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.

Doug in Seattle
January 26, 2011 6:54 am

Power without accountability is only one of the problems, but a big one that will not be solved in a short time.

Jacob
January 26, 2011 7:01 am

I herby propose reconciliation resolution item #1: Close down the IPCC.
The IPCC is the embodyment of post-normal science.

johanna
January 26, 2011 7:05 am

Chatham House Rule?
“The Chatham House Rule is a principle that governs the confidentiality of the source of information received at a meeting. Since its refinement in 2002, the rule states:[1]
“ When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed. ”
Well, that, combined with the preponderance of social scientists and journalists, makes me think that choosing your son’s Scout event over attending this anonymous talkfest was a good call, Anthony.

Martin C
January 26, 2011 7:11 am

” . . . attributed the violence of the disagreement in climate science to the propensity of scientific societies to publish position statements, and the IPCC itself; these create animosity and hostility through the exercise of power without sufficient accountability . . ”
Ya think? The IPCC the ‘team’, and others pushing the C02 agenda for whatever reason (power/control/re-distribution of wealth, making money on cap and trade before it collapsed a la Al Gore, and so on . . . ), pushing models tuned to respond to CO2 as ‘evidence’, ignoring real world evidence of the recent and longer pasts of natural cycles. And claiming that those who aren’t knowledgable as them don’t understand and therefore are wrong . . .
I thought it would change a lot after Climategate last year – it has some, but not as much as I would have expected. Not sure it will change – unless the latest lull in solar activity remains and temperature really do drop in the next few years . . .

latitude
January 26, 2011 7:11 am

whereas the majority are social scientists (with a few journalist
==============================================
good Lord

January 26, 2011 7:16 am

“One person attributed the violence of the disagreement in climate science to the propensity of scientific societies to publish position statements, and the IPCC itself; these create animosity and hostility through the exercise of power without sufficient accountability.”
!!!
Very perceptive, that person. And one wonders what is possessing those scientific societies that has made them forget basic principles of science. Those principles by implication exclude any position statements other than assertion of the basic principles, surely?

DLBrown
January 26, 2011 7:23 am

Judy’s take on the meeting, so far, is encouraging.

John Phillips
January 26, 2011 7:26 am

“• violence in this debate derives from the potential impacts of climate change and the policy options, and differing political and cultural notions of risk and responsibility.
• disagreement in climate science is more violent than other fields ”
I think the word violence is being mis-used. A vigorous and even rancorous debate is not violent.
Also, I don’t think much can be accomplished if the majority of the attendees are social scientists.

BarryW
January 26, 2011 7:28 am

these create animosity and hostility through the exercise of power without sufficient accountability.

And that is the general problem with bureaucratic organizations: lack of accountability. When an organization’s members don’t have consequences to their actions they will become corrupt. Even if they are “accountable”. When the IPCC makes pronouncements that are proven false what happens? They continue on to make new ones. Fortune tellers have more accountability than our officials do.

Ben U.
January 26, 2011 7:34 am

How are they defining “violence”? It sounds more like they’re talking about vehemence or something like that.

P.F.
January 26, 2011 7:37 am

I am surprised at the focus on “violence.” In watching the development of the climate debate for nearly 25 years now, I recall the violent rhetoric and action stemmed pretty much exclusively from promoters/believers of AGW, culminating in the 10-10 video ads. I never heard Sen. Inhofe speak of violence, but we got a lot of it from Gore. Never heard violent speech from McIntyre or McKitrick, but did from Hansen and Holdren.
Perhaps the social scientists that are the majority at this conference could have spread their feelings more widely with the AGW camp before now.

stephan
January 26, 2011 7:38 am
Baa Humbug
January 26, 2011 7:42 am

Chatham house rules. Politicians use this a lot in meetings.
That means we will know what was said but not who said what. It means participants will speak freely.

Tom Jones
January 26, 2011 7:57 am

“About a third of the participants are physical scientists with some knowledge of climate science, whereas the majority are social scientists (with a few journalists).”
This is about the scariest thing I have ever read.

G. Karst
January 26, 2011 8:03 am

Saving the planet is serious business (whether it needs saving or not). In fact, there can be no higher calling (or delusion). With such delusional stakes involved, there is little wonder fanaticism and violence will manifest. GK

AlanG
January 26, 2011 8:14 am

Climate science doesn’t look anything like a normal science – agenda driven as it is by politicians, environmentalists and a weird UN bureaucracy. It has a long road back to science normality.

January 26, 2011 8:21 am

I have not heard anything about Bjørn Lomborg. Before you can have reconciliation you have to apologize to him for the rotten treatment he has had. He was hauled in front of Danish committee on scientific dishonesty, a Web site was established to attack his ideas, and a book was written to prove that his two books were all wrong. The man is not even a denier and believes that global warming exists. As long as his ideas are denied and attacked by the warmist establishment there is no hope for that reconciliation that they are paying lip service to.

bubbagyro
January 26, 2011 8:25 am

How did the flat earthers get reconciled with the deniers, who believed the earth was round, during the Middle Ages?
I guess the two ideas must have become reconciled somehow because we don’t hear any hostile debate about it anymore…
The Flatheads (an unnecessary pejorative term, I admit), through their holds on the governmental purse strings, just would not allow the financing of any trading ships that would not promise to not get too close to the edge. They would also probably have called for huge taxes to put bell buoys all around the earth, near the edge. Poor countries would have the buoys subsidized by the taxes of the trading world, of course.
The Flatties won the textbook debate back then, as we know, and children were properly and summarily educated.

richcar 1225
January 26, 2011 8:26 am

“dealing with complex problems using complex tools, ideas”
I have an idea – lets simplfy the metrics. Let us all agree that if we can not find heat acculumulating in the oceans AGW is not occuring. Let us agree that to hide below 700 meters we need to observe it passing through the upper 700 meters of the ocean. Secondly if we are acculmulating heat then we should see it with sea level rise acceleration as the steric (thermal component) increases. Forget the ice caps or atmospheric data. We have the tools (ARGO) to make a monthly report to the public that shows how many joules acculmulated the previous month vs what is predicted by the IPCC.
Meanwhile UAH ch 5 should put January’s anomaly at about -.1 degrees C. below the thirty year trend.

AJB
January 26, 2011 8:28 am

Thanks for the patronising claptrap, sounds like a post normal bun fest. Some may find this thread on the Bishop Hill blog interesting and pertinent:
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/1/25/hulme-on-nurse.html

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