Global Sea Surface Temperature continues to drop

SST UPDATE FROM AMSR-E

By Dr. Roy Spencer, PhD

The following plot shows global average sea surface temperatures from the AMSR-E instrument over the lifetime of the Aqua satellite, through Dec 31, 2010. The SSTs at the end of December suggest that the tropospheric temperatures in the previous graph (see post here) still have a ways to fall in the coming months to catch up to the ocean, which should now be approaching its coolest point if it follows the course of previous La Nina’s.


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Here’s a visual view of the global SST:

clickable global map of SST anomalies 

Full size image of above here

More on the WUWT ENSO page here

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83 thoughts on “Global Sea Surface Temperature continues to drop

  1. Looks like it’s a persistent La Nina, much like the early one in 2008.

    I find the Jet Stream interesting. It looks like it’s following more of an El Nino path than La Nina.

  2. man…we still have a ways to go yet….we could see a very late spring which means a later start to the melt season like Joe Bastardi has been predicting.

  3. Looking at the graph, I would say it supports Phil Jones’ statement that there has been no significant warming in the past 15 (here 8) YEARS.

    -Jay

  4. Isn’t it weird? All we are arguing about are tenths of degrees Celsius. Check the y-axis.

    Explain me now, how that tiny warming/cooling of oceans by tenth of degree causes extreme events, floods and drought, earthquakes and tsunamis.

  5. As ever, it is the ocean heat content that is the true gauge of global warming or cooling. I wish the warmists would agree with the skeptics to stop talking about global average temperatures, as it just misleads the public.

  6. Current cooling in global SST under AMSR-E data is less severe than the cooling in 2007-2008. Australia’s BOM data though, say for Nino region 3.4, show that current cooling is similar to 2007-08 cooling with temp anomaly of -1.5 C. I would assume that the temp decline in the Atlantic and other oceans is not as severe as the temp decline in the Pacific Ocean.

  7. I once thought ’03-’07 might be the peak of the LIA recovery; now I think it is the ’98-’10 top.
    ============

  8. “More on the WUWT ENSO page here”

    Anthony

    Given the success of the Sea Ice Page, I was thinking that we might want to develop the WUWT “ENSO/Sea Level/Sea Surface Temperature Page” into a more encompassing WUWT Ocean Reference Page. And possibly include some more global graphics/animations such as these;
    Global Tropical Sea Surface Temperature – 3 Months

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml

    Global Sea Surface Temperature – 30 Days

    Global Sea Surface Temperature – 12 Months

    Global Surface Currents over Temperature – 30 Days

    Global Surface Currents over Temperature – 12 Months

    Global Surface Currents over Height – 30 Days

    Global Surface Currents over Height – 12 Months

    Global Surface Currents over Speed – 30 Days

    Global Surface Currents over Speed – 12 Months

    Global Sea Surface Height – 30 Days

    Global Sea Surface Height – 12 Months

    Global Sea Surface Salinity – 30 Days

    Global Sea Surface Salinity – 12 Months

    Note that if you use data and graphics from the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at Stennis Space Center (SSC) they state that they “would like to be continually involved with any uses of the data or graphics that we provide. Please keep us informed of any transitions or publications. Please let us know immediately if you should see anything questionable in the data or graphics so that we can make the product better. Their website can be found here:

    http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/

    Furthermore their site states that, “NRL and NAVOCEANO are participants in the multi-national Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) including presence on the U. S. and international steering teams. GODAE is aimed at demonstrating real-time global ocean products in a way that will promote wide utility and availability for maximum benefit to the community.”

    Maybe WUWT can help GODAE to achieve some of their goals.

  9. Juraj.V it doesn’t. There is, in fact, nothing abnormal about the weather, nor the climate. Those who tell you there is are liars.

    I’ve been to North Australia. The North coast, apart from the York Peninsula and The Kimberley, basically are just sloping plates gradually entering the shallow seas around. You can be travelling along the North Road, between Broome and 80 Mile Beach, and see signs warning of floods. Floods! My God, there is nothing but red deset here – except, obviously, when there are floods. Nothing abnormal about floods and dryness in Australia.

  10. I find the following from the Aussie BoM quite interesting.

    The four-month sequence of sub-surface Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomalies, to 22 December, shows that a large volume of cooler than normal water has been evident below the surface of the tropical Pacific for many months. Sub-surface water in the central and eastern Pacific has remained cooler than usual during December, with central areas more than 4 °C cooler than usual. The sequence also shows that warm anomalies in the western Pacific have continued to develop over the last four months.

    Take a look at the chart here

  11. Anthony

    While we are at it, I was also thinking that we might want to develop a WUWT Atmosphere Reference Page including content such as:

    Atmospheric Pressure:
    Actual:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_sh_anim.shtml

    http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Circulation/HT_Anomaly_Loop.html

    Forecast:

    http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250

    http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_slp

    Clouds:
    Actual:

    http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/ir/irmoll.html

    http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/wv/wvmoll.mpg

    http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/globe/cldspin.html

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched&PROD=day_night_bm&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=global&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=global.cgi&CURRENT=20110102.0300.multisat.visir.bckgr.Global_Global_bm.DAYNGT.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched&PROD=vapor&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=global&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=global.cgi&CURRENT=20110102.0300.multisat.wv.stitched.Global.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

    Temperature:

    Sea Surface Temperature:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+001

    Temperature 14,000 feet:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002

    Temperature 25,000 feet:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+003

    Temperature 36,000 feet:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+004

    Temperature 46,000 feet:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+005

    Temperature 56,000 feet:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+006

    Temperature 68,000 feet:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+007

    Temperature 102,000 feet:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+009

    Temperature 118,000 feet:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+010

    Temperature Animation at 50 hPa

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.shtml

    Temperature Animation at 30 hPa

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

    Temperature Animation at 10 hPa ~ 30,000 km

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

    Global Temperature/Cloud Animation

    [video src="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/cmoll/cmoll.mp4" /]

    What do you think? If you think it’s worthwhile I’ll put some more work into it. A WUWT Sun Reference Page might also be a valuable resource…

  12. wattsupwiththat?… Why on the year axis is 2010 a different size to the others? And what’s strange about the ocean warming in spring and summer and cooling in winter? What point are you trying to make? The average temperature hasn’t dropped, it was cooler in 2007/08, and it was warmer this year than it’s been all decade. This years low is warmer than last years and right now it’s not continuing dropping, it looks like it’s levelled off.

  13. It looks like the sea surface temperature variation may have bottomed out at – 0.1C and is not going to fall as low as 2008. It may be that Dr Spencer holds this view since when taling about ocean temperature, he sates “which should now be approaching its coolest point if it follows the course of previous La Nina’s.”

    Given the heat capacity of the ocean and their relative surface area, for all intents and purposes, it is only ocean temperature (and not land tempatures) that is important when considering whether there is any real global warming. Further, ocean temperatures are not bastardised by UHI which makes their data set more accurate.

    The graph suggests no significant warming during the past 8 years.

  14. kim says:
    January 3, 2011 at 3:09 pm

    If the peak has occurred, it occurred in the 1930s-40s. We have likely never exceeded them.

  15. Ed_B says:
    January 3, 2011 at 2:59 pm

    As ever, it is the ocean heat content that is the true gauge of global warming or cooling. I wish the warmists would agree with the skeptics to stop talking about global average temperatures, as it just misleads the public.

    Except it has become perfectly clear that is their prime objective,
    to mislead the public. (but keep dreamin’)

  16. @Juraj V. – no no, the weather events are a result of AGW; the earthquakes and tsunamis are Mother Gaia’s vengeance against the pillaging patriarchal West!

    …which is what makes it so odd that it’s always the world’s poorest that get slammed by these events. :P

  17. richard verney says:
    January 3, 2011 at 4:04 pm (Edit)
    It looks like the sea surface temperature variation may have bottomed out at – 0.1C and is not going to fall as low as 2008.

    Unfortunately SST will continue to decline well into this year. Steeply asides from the occasional pause. It will bottom out well below 2008.

    You can call that a prediction.

  18. One thing I’ve noticed is how low the heat anomaly is for the Gulf of Mexico and the gulf stream current. If you look at past temperature plots of the gulf stream, you’ll notice that a trail of cold water is moving closer and closer to Ireland and Britain. I don’t know what it means, but it is interesting to me. Especially since I live in North Carolina where the coast was formed by the gulf stream current.

  19. meanwhile in cuckoo-land Robyn ’100m’ Williams and Tim ‘Alarmist’ Flannery had a chat last weekend.

    On the release of his book, Here on Earth an argument for hope, scientist and author Tim Flannery appears in a public forum at The Seymour Centre in Sydney. Tim Flannery attended the Copenhagen climate talks in Copenhagen in 2009 which were largely seen as a failure. Despite this, and most environmental indicators looking bad and getting worse, Flannery outlines the reasons he is hopeful for the future of life on planet Earth.

    The comments are interesting :)

    http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2011/3101365.htm

  20. Joe Bastardi says:
    January 3, 2011 at 5:27 pm
    Thank the Lord for Dr. Roy Spencer!
    ==================================================
    Sometimes I say that same thing about you! LOL

  21. The CFS Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies (K) is the only one suggesting we may have a ‘back to back’ La Nina in the offing.

  22. tallbloke says on January 3, 2011 at 5:16 pm

    richard verney says:
    January 3, 2011 at 4:04 pm (Edit)
    It looks like the sea surface temperature variation may have bottomed out at – 0.1C and is not going to fall as low as 2008.

    Unfortunately SST will continue to decline well into this year. Steeply asides from the occasional pause. It will bottom out well below 2008.

    You can call that a prediction.

    Would you care to quantify that, otherwise that prediction is not very useful. For example, 0.0001C below 2008 could be considered well below by some people.

  23. Saw a comment on here that made me worry about next week’s weather down here in LA (lower Alabama). I notice accuweather is already showing next Tuesday 8-10 deg-F cooler then wx.com. WUWT? Do I need to heat trace my well, tank, and associated plumbing?

  24. Hey rollingstone, it is now 2011. Also, seasons in the Southern hemisphere are opposite of those in the Northern.

  25. I don’t think SST ever tells us much about climate one way or another. It’s the mixing point between the water oceans and the surface air. And both are always trying to reach equilibrium. The water takes much more time to absorb heat from or release heat to the air. This interaction gives us the very beneficial effects of moderating temperature near the coasts and maintaining a stable range of temperatures worldwide.

    If we wanted to find useful data from the ocean about future temperatures, I think we’d need to measure temperature by depth when the seas are relatively calm (ie. not a major El Nino or La Nina). If we did that, maybe we’d be able to estimate how much energy is currently stored in the ocean. With a long enough record, we might even be able to determine an average, and whether or not the stored heat is at a relative surplus or deficit level.

    How much that information would reveal about global temperatures is dubious, since the transfer of energy to the atmosphere isn’t ever at a steady rate, but, at least, there would be some relationship.

  26. It might be more helpful if I submit a link. All the other models are looking toward a neutral ENSO, while CFS is a standout. Reminds me of the mid-1950s.

  27. Too bad we don’t have thermometers in rivers and soils. My worm garden has suffered from cold summer soils the last two years, and our rivers in NE Oregon are freezing from the bottom up starting in December, an event that occasionally only happens in January.

    Something sure has flipped. Today I wore thermals and thick jeans, topped with two layered sweaters, topped with a long wool winter coat and winter scarf tied around my head. At 4 foot 10 and 1/2 inches, I couldn’t bend my flippin arms to drive! And if whatever has flipped keeps on flippin, a lot more people will be flippin party affiliation. Cuz it’s FLIPPIN COLD!

  28. Rollingstone says:
    January 3, 2011 at 4:02 pm
    And what’s strange about the ocean warming in spring and summer and cooling in winter?
    ========================================================

    Hey wait a minute RS our seasons in the southern Hem are reversed to yours! so its cooling in our summer.!! This is all global my son. In fact it’s the “long” term trend of this data that’s the issue (in this case its pretty short) but that trend looks pretty flat to my eye from 2002 to 2010.!

  29. peterhodges says:
    January 3, 2011 at 7:48 pm
    holy smokes….did leif svalgaard make a joke?
    Reminding people how they reacted to the drop in 2007-2008 [but with the reverse effect]. They shouldn’t jump on every little wiggle of a messy system and take that as confirmation of whatever pet theory they are peddling.

  30. Leif Svalgaard says:
    January 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm
    Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…

    It is clear that Gaia has requested the rising activity from Sol to offset the cooling she feels from the icy water brought about by irritable climate syndrome.

  31. Pamela,
    Cove is 3 degrees warmer than Ellensburg this fine January evening; neither yet at or below zero F. A bit crisp and nippy, but due to warm on Wednesday. Put some popcorn on and grab a beer.

  32. Rolling Stone:
    No sir if you look at the chart you see that the from the start of 2008 to mid 2009 the SST rise with a few bumps along the way. Sorry but the temps start to rise in the N.H. winter.

  33. Leif Svalgaard says:
    January 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm

    Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…

    The festive season has finished now Leif. It’s time for you to cork the vodka bottle.

  34. I used to read the comments of certain posters in a state of awe, marveling at their knowledge. Now, after a couple of years of reading these same people’s comments, the only thing I am in awe of is their smug, self-absorbed egocentricity.

  35. “…The graph suggests no significant warming during the past 8 years…”

    But it’s the TREND that’s important (or so we’ve been told). It doesn’t matter where “zero” is on the chart. If you use the bottom of the chart as a reference, it’s ALL been above “zero”…

  36. MartinGAtkins says:
    January 3, 2011 at 9:21 pm
    The festive season has finished now Leif. It’s time for you to cork the vodka bottle.
    In Russia where I lived for a while [actually then the CCCP] vodka bottles do not have corks, but tear-off caps. I was lectured [when I remarked on this] that nobody in his right mind would recap or cork a bottle, once open.

  37. Jason Joice M.D. says:
    January 3, 2011 at 9:29 pm

    Take it easy, Jason, it will pass, this is an end of year WUWT type of Roman (Saturnalia) role reversal; should be back to normal by the feast of Epiphany on January 6.

  38. Leif Svalgaard says:
    January 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm
    Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…

    ==============================

    No, it isn’t. (Got your joke!) But isn’t there some sort of lag here?

    The heat storage capacity of the oceans is well documented. I live in an area where we plant palmetto and mexican fan palms to give it that “tropical” look, only to see those palms trimmed back to the nub after extensive cold and even some snow.

    Well that is in part because, where I live, thanks to the battle of the last vestiges of the Labrador Current and the ever-vigorous Gulf Stream, the temps of our ocean vary between seasons over 42 degrees F….sometimes more.

    And trust me, the meteorology reflects it.

    But one thing is certain: ocean temps lag that of atmospheric temps.

    Certainly you can not just blame the natural decline in the winter’s ocean temps on the weather above? Has to do with the amount of (or lack of) solar energy heating the ocean.

    Might there not be a lag (or lags) of ocean heat storage in relation to solar bombardment of the planet?

    Too soon to rule out. But Tallbloke and Stephen Wilder and others opine on this quite regularly.

    Certainly, as in normal natural simple observation (and Occams Razor) more sun energy equals more energy absorbed in the oceans….even if (and why even the “if” there should be an expected lag) a lag occurs.

    Perhaps the lag is evident now….as solar activity “upswings” (though really sickly) (if you can call it an upswing) and ocean temperatures drop.

    Hmmm.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  39. “Leif Svalgaard says:
    January 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm
    Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…”

    More meridional/equatorward jets via increased cloudiness/albedo are skewing the balance in favour of La Nina as against El Nino.

    The small increase in solar activity since the recent minimum is an irrelevance as compared to the difference between the top of cycle 23 and the likely top of cycle 24.

    The change in the mix of particles and wavelengths from the sun has resulted in a change to the chemical balances in the atmosphere thus changing ozone quantities differentially at different levels so as to change the vertical temperature profile and redistribute the air pressure systems in the troposphere.

  40. savethesharks says:
    January 4, 2011 at 12:04 am
    No, it isn’t. (Got your joke!) But isn’t there some sort of lag here?>
    Yes, a negative lag since the sunspots lead the temperature by one year as is plain to anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear.

  41. >> Leif
    >> Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…

    Its called a time lag. The oceans don’t respond to fluctuations like a teacup.

    Besides, what we are seeing is a change in wind and weather circulations, not a change in TSI.

  42. @ FrankK & R.Shearer

    Thanks for the comments guys, just a couple of points…

    Yeah, it’s 2011 by a gnats whisker but the graph only goes up to the end of 2010.

    I am aware that the seasons are reversed down under and I did think about that at the time but I couldn’t see anything on the graph to state whether it was Northern hemisphere or southern. Maybe I’m missing something but if you present facts to fit a theory then maybe important information should be clearly stated, otherwise you can mislead.

    The visual representation (pretty colours) shows readings from both hemispheres. I have to look at it again on a proper screen when I get the chance, but there’s lies, damn lies and statistics to be considered. Don’t need Janet and John colouring books level of presentation but all important information needs to be clearly displayed, don’t you think?

  43. Pamela Gray says:
    January 3, 2011 at 7:23 pm

    The Met Offices do have themometers in the soil and down to 4′. At one time they used to publish them. I always found them a brilliant indicator of temperature trends. The soil acts like a ‘damper’ so you get a smoothed curve unadjusted by human hands.

  44. Stephen Wilde says:
    January 4, 2011 at 12:12 am

    I think Leif’s comment may have been a little piece of scandanavian humour.

  45. Richard Sharpe says:
    January 3, 2011 at 6:24 pm
    tallbloke says on January 3, 2011 at 5:16 pm
    You can call that a prediction.

    Would you care to quantify that, otherwise that prediction is not very useful. For example, 0.0001C below 2008 could be considered well below by some people.

    -0.32C +/-0.05 by September on Roy Spencer’s metric according to my model.

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    January 3, 2011 at 10:39 pm
    I was lectured [when I remarked on this] that nobody in his right mind would recap or cork a bottle, once open.

    Re-corking the bottle? That’s illegal isn’t it?

  46. “stephen richards says:
    January 4, 2011 at 1:01 am
    Stephen Wilde says:
    January 4, 2011 at 12:12 am

    I think Leif’s comment may have been a little piece of scandanavian humour”

    Yes I know but it was a chance to try to provoke a more serious comment.

    Since I adjusted my scenario to broaden the proposed causes of the ozone effects above 45km and pointed out that in view of the involvement of chemical processes the matter of radiative physics is of little significance I have not had a further comment from him.

  47. Leif Svalgaard says:
    January 3, 2011 at 10:39 pm

    In Russia where I lived for a while [actually then the CCCP] vodka bottles do not have corks, but tear-off caps. I was lectured [when I remarked on this] that nobody in his right mind would recap or cork a bottle, once open.

    In that case, I implore you not to open another until next year.

  48. Leif Svalgaard said:-
    “January 3, 2011 at 8:25 pm

    peterhodges says:
    January 3, 2011 at 7:48 pm
    holy smokes….did leif svalgaard make a joke?
    Reminding people how they reacted to the drop in 2007-2008 [but with the reverse effect]. They shouldn’t jump on every little wiggle of a messy system and take that as confirmation of whatever pet theory they are peddling.”

    Well that is just what the Warmistas are doing when they say that the “warm” 2010 is “proof” of AGW. I fact they are far the bigger culprits for wiggle jumping. Realists tend to look over longer time scales.

  49. Looking at the graph, if you take out the El Nino “wiggle” then sea surface temps (and following them air temps) are still clearly trending downwards.

    El Nino is just the Pacific releasing energy- it is not global warming.

  50. It is too early to call how SST will respond in 2011.

    Before I had seen this post, I had presumed that the drop in temps would be similar to 2008. Who knows, it may yet be.

    I merely commented on the plot which for the extreme latter part of 201o appears to have flattened out and took this in conjuction with Dr Spencer’s comment suggesting that the SST should by now have approached its coolest point.

    Of course, there are times between 2007 & 2008 where the temperatures momentarily flattened off before falling further and 2010/11 may in the end show a similar profile.

    Whilst I do not like the cold, personally I would like to see the SST fall further to around 2008 levels.

  51. The energy stored in the first few meters of our oceans contain the same energy stored in the whole of the planet’s atmosphere. This can be deduced by an O-level physics student. So, when Kevin Trenberth postulated that the oceans must be warming up due to AGW, he was scientifically correct, if AGW is correct. But he could not find the warming and he even said that “this is a travesty”, proving that AGW is a non-starter.
    The oceans’ surface area constitute a major part of the planet’s total surface area and therefore receive pro-rate the solar energy radiation coming in. The question is what the b… hell the oceans do with this energy. I am no scientist, just a graduate (1974) in Mechanical Engineering, and assisted with my thermodynamics and mathematics can understand some or more than some, of the science being published on our climate’s antics.
    I love reports such as this one by Dr. Spencer, they are to the point and immediately understood and reinforces my opinion (based on what I have been reading ever since Al Gore told me that my grand children are all gonna die of the heat-they are dying of the cold actually), that the oceans, with their great mass and the specific heat value of water, are the most important sink and store of the planet’s energy dynamics. The oceans smooth out the global temperature, abosrbing it during warm periods and releasing it during cold periods. IMHO, should the current solar slumber continue, the oceans would not have enough energy stored to keep the earth in global warming mode, but could send us reeling into a freeze. I hope not. I just wish that CO2 would bail us out of a big freeze, but apparently would not. I love CO2, it gives life to my grand children but alas, it does not actually keep us warm. What keeps us warm is producing it by burning hydrocarbons, but the econutters would not let me.

  52. “the ocean, which should now be approaching its coolest point if it follows the course of previous La Nina’s.”

    But, alas, will continue to cool into March, so sad.

  53. Stephen Wilde says:
    January 4, 2011 at 12:12 am
    “I think Leif’s comment may have been a little piece of scandanavian humour”
    Yes I know but it was a chance to try to provoke a more serious comment.”

    Churchill said famously that a little joke is a serious matter. I know it’s good sport here to knock Leif’s skeptism about solar effects on climate. I’m sympathetic to Leif, because he is a slave to experimental data. Theories are nice, but data is real, or should be. Show me the data, prove the high and repetitive correlation, and then the scientific experiment to validate all of that. Then I buy the theory — when it’s proven. That’s the source of my skepticism about AGW and solar effects. Solar effetcs is more plausible to me, but it is far from proven.

  54. This will definately cool the atmosphere considering the equator is the area with the most centrifugal force.

  55. “I am in awe of is their smug, self-absorbed egocentricity.”
    …in the comments and posts at WUWT, in general, and I just started looking yesterday.

    You folks are a valuable lesson in how third rate science can sound convincing when you want it to.

  56. @Leif Svalgaard says:
    January 3, 2011 at 7:00 pm

    “Rising solar activity is clearly driving SST down…”

    Many a (half) true word is spoken in jest, keep it up.

  57. Hope you’re right but have a “feeling” we still have a way to go with the current SST drop AND much more tropospheric temperature drop before we start an upward trend in either graph. Something in my bones;-)

  58. “NK says:
    January 4, 2011 at 5:33 am ”

    I accept Leif’s position and have taken account of various of his contributions by amending my propositions accordingly.

    I also agree with this:

    “Show me the data, prove the high and repetitive correlation, and then the scientific experiment to validate all of that. Then I buy the theory — when it’s proven.”

    I do see a high and repetitive solar/climate correlation in the historical records on a 500/1000 year timescale but it often breaks down on less than century timecales due to a countervailing force (oceanic most likely).

    The trouble is that the data we need has not been available until the satellite era which is itself too short for diagnostic purposes.

    However the recent sudden step change in solar behaviour ought to be pronounced enough to see solar/climate effects on a relatively short timescale now that we have such good systems of data recovery.

    So the scientific experiment is global and ongoing. Gaia is subjecting us to a little demonstration and it should produce enough data over the next year or two to substantiate or rebut my hypothesis.

    If ozone really does increase above 45km when the sun is quiet and decrease above 45km when the sun is more active then my scenario becomes the only game in town.

  59. fuddy man says:
    January 4, 2011 at 5:56 am

    “I am in awe of is their smug, self-absorbed egocentricity.”
    …in the comments and posts at WUWT, in general, and I just started looking yesterday.

    You folks are a valuable lesson in how third rate science can sound convincing when you want it to.

    Then people like you post your smug, self-absorbed egocentric insults demonstrating that the “problem” you refer to is likely universal.

    You’ll get no arguments here that the IPCC reports (more particularly, the IPCC process) rates as third rate science packaged nicely to sound convincing to the hoi palloi.

    Mark

  60. Dr. Spencer’s data “obviously” do not account for the tremendous latent heat that is stored up in the arctic region that has contributed to the changes in air flow that triggers massive snows in Siberia that result in .

    {reminder to self … next time must invite friends over before ripping off the cap, maintain a smaller stock of vodka on hand, or deign to maintain (and use) a supply of corks}

  61. Vodka obviously confused my use of proper punctuation marks (see addition below):

    Dr. Spencer’s data “obviously” do not account for the tremendous latent heat that is stored up in the arctic region that has contributed to the changes in air flow that triggers massive snows in Siberia that result in {insert here the current AGW “theory” that cooling is warming in the Northern hemisphere}.

    {reminder to self … next time must invite friends over before ripping off the cap, maintain a smaller stock of vodka on hand, or deign to maintain (and use) a supply of corks}

  62. Pamela Gray says: Cuz it’s FLIPPIN COLD!

    As I get this mental image of a just under 5 foot (with boots…) double wrapped Redhead Penguin with “flippers” that won’t quite reach the holster… ;-)

    And with a worm garden to boot…

    E.M. Smith here in soggy cold frosty California… sitting on top of the electric room heater with the 150 W bulb going in the lamp….

    (Sidebar: California has banned the 100 W bulb, so I’ve put them in storage for ‘someday’ and replaced them all with the 150 W bulbs that are still ‘approved’. I understand this of going to save energy and I’m doing it “for the children”, though I’m not sure exactly what children, as mine are adults now… But hey, smarter minds than mine have decided “Hey Hey, HO HO, 100W has got to go!”, so it’s 150 W for me…. In a few more years, it’s only the 200 W bulbs that I’ll still be able to buy. Man, I’ll really be saving energy then… /sarcoff> )

  63. Stephen Wilde says:
    January 4, 2011 at 7:42 am
    “So the scientific experiment is global and ongoing. Gaia is subjecting us to a little demonstration and it should produce enough data over the next year or two to substantiate or rebut my hypothesis.”

    Stephen– keep that data coming, and stay on the honest side of science.

  64. SST anomalies are interesting when looking at short term cycles such as ENSO and longer term cycles such as the PDO, but not so useful when trying to study a much longer term effect such as would be suggested by AGW. In this case, we would be talking about looking at longer term ocean heat content measurements, and even more so, the heat content of the ocean down to the deepest layers.

    Fortunately, a recently completed long-term study of deeper ocean heat content with solid and reliable data seems to indicate exactly what AGW skeptics seem to want to try and refute when looking the short term SST cycles– namely, deeper ocean heat content seems to be rising:

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3682.1

    If future studies of the deeper ocean confirm the results of this study, at least some part of Dr. Trenberth’s “missing heat” may have been found, and this would never be possible by simply looking at shorter term SST cycles…

  65. E.M.Smith says on January 4, 2011 at 11:30 am

    (Sidebar: California has banned the 100 W bulb, so I’ve put them in storage for ‘someday’ and replaced them all with the 150 W bulbs that are still ‘approved’. I understand this of going to save energy and I’m doing it “for the children”, though I’m not sure exactly what children, as mine are adults now… But hey, smarter minds than mine have decided “Hey Hey, HO HO, 100W has got to go!”, so it’s 150 W for me…. In a few more years, it’s only the 200 W bulbs that I’ll still be able to buy. Man, I’ll really be saving energy then… /sarcoff> )

    This is very clearly a dirty scheme between politicians and companies that make those horrible mercury filled twirly lamps because the patents on incandescents long ago expired so the profits are minuscule and there’s too much competition.

    The Greens must be happy to know that they have been used by Big-light manufacturing again.

  66. R Gates said:

    “Fortunately, a recently completed long-term study of deeper ocean heat content with solid and reliable data seems to indicate exactly what AGW skeptics seem to want to try and refute when looking the short term SST cycles– namely, deeper ocean heat content seems to be rising:

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3682.1

    Well, RG, that might be so for the period of increased solar shortwave into the oceans whilst the sun was active, the jets were more poleward/zonal and there was reduced cloudiness and albedo.

    All those factors are now in reverse so I don’t see that trend as continuing.

  67. Stephen Wilde says:
    January 4, 2011 at 1:42 pm
    R Gates said:

    “Fortunately, a recently completed long-term study of deeper ocean heat content with solid and reliable data seems to indicate exactly what AGW skeptics seem to want to try and refute when looking the short term SST cycles– namely, deeper ocean heat content seems to be rising:

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3682.1”

    Well, RG, that might be so for the period of increased solar shortwave into the oceans whilst the sun was active, the jets were more poleward/zonal and there was reduced cloudiness and albedo.

    All those factors are now in reverse so I don’t see that trend as continuing.
    ______
    It will be interesting to see if that’s how it unfolds, and if, indeed, it can be traced back merely to solar influences. As the magnitude of the heating they’ve found in the deeper oceans if far greater than anything that current solar theory would say could even have come from the solar changes during that period, but it does match up fairly well with the 0.9 w/m2 of forcing that Trenberth has calculated has been added.

  68. Re-corking the bottle? That’s illegal isn’t it?

    Not in the State of Washington — recent rule change. We are making great strides toward civilization. Don’t know about other places.

  69. “As the magnitude of the heating they’ve found in the deeper oceans if far greater than anything that current solar theory would say could even have come from the solar changes during that period.”

    Of course it is. Net solar changes are tiny as Leif keeps telling us. However I have proposed solar driven albedo changes. A very different and much larger kettle of fish.

  70. So-called “Global Warming” has been a huge con-job on the public by leftist non-profits, enabling them to steal huge amounts of tax dollars.

  71. It’s interesting to compare the La Nina data from the Oz BOM. Among other things it suggests a relatively cold 2011 year, and I was surprised by the small lag between ENSO and the global SST’s

    Below is the Nino 3.4 comparison; Nino 3 is more dramatic, but I think is less used.

    Oddly, there appears to be a small x axis scale error with the last 6 months being slightly over-length, so the curve should be slightly steeper-down than shown ?

  72. R. Gates says:
    January 4, 2011 at 3:12 pm
    Stephen Wilde says:
    January 4, 2011 at 1:42 pm
    R Gates said:

    Fortunately, a recently completed long-term study of deeper ocean heat content with solid and reliable data seems to indicate exactly what AGW skeptics seem to want to try and refute when looking the short term SST cycles– namely, deeper ocean heat content seems to be rising:

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3682.1

    Your link is dead. And deep ocean warming is only wishful thinking.

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