Heaviest December snow in NYC in 6 decades – 5th largest ever – hundreds of other snow records set around the nation


According to the Bloomberg article:

More than a foot of snow fell across the northeast yesterday, with some areas in New Jersey getting more than 30 inches (76 centimeters), according to AccuWeather. Central Park had 20 inches of snow by 8 a.m. yesterday, the most for the month since 1948, the National Weather Service said.

and

The snowfall was the fifth-largest on record for the city, Sanitation Commissioner John Doherty said on Dec. 26.

Here are some daily record event reports:

In addition, snow records were set all over the eastern half of the United States:

Only snowfall records are plotted on this map - click for interactive plotter for all records

634 snowfall records were set in the USA this past week.

Here’s the storm system that set so many records, on its way to sea yesterday:

GOES-13 visible image of the powerful low pressure system that brought snows from Georgia to Maine on December 27
On Monday, December 27 at 1731 UTC (12:31 p.m. EST) the GOES-13 satellite captured this visible image of the powerful low pressure system that brought snows from Georgia to Maine along the U.S. east coast. Some of the snowfall can be seen over South and North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southeastern New York. The clouds of the low obscure New England in the image.
Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project
› Larger image

About these ads

89 thoughts on “Heaviest December snow in NYC in 6 decades – 5th largest ever – hundreds of other snow records set around the nation

  1. Right in the smack of negative AO territory. When the La Nina jet stream meets the negative AO, you get a rather predictable pattern of temperature and precipitation.

    Out on the West coast, here we go again. Another system is riding the Jet stream. Cold due to La Nina, and full of water vapor, compliments of the Pacific (talk about your lake affect!). That means that you folks in the East won’t even get to shovel down to the sidewalk before you will get hit again with what will likely be another round of record snows, all compliments of natural oscillations co-occurring: La Nina, and the negative Arctic Oscillation.

  2. Pamela Gray says:
    December 28, 2010 at 8:26 am

    Natural oscillations augmented (or caused) by an historically low solar cycle.

  3. Where I am, in Northwestern Alberta, our temperatures are trending 5 degrees C colder than normal. Thanks La Nina.

  4. Between the snows of the NH and the rains here in Oz, the volumes involved are mind boggling. It takes huge amounts of energy to transport those volumes up to the atmosphere. Now that energy has been dumped.

    Does anyone have the nouse to figure out the approximate amounts involved and how that relates to the planets energy budget.

  5. @Pamela, nothing much seen for a 10 day in Boston, but yes, the storms ride up the east coast on this sort of circulation pattern. People forget that the blizzard of ’78, although a certainly bad storm, was made ever so much worse by the fact that we had 2 significant snowfalls in the weeks previous that had not melted. It is still warm enough in the Boston area that a lot of this will melt before our next big one. We probably will not be so lucky after that.

  6. So does plowing all that snow contribute to Climate Disruption? Can I sue all the states that got dumped on and are plowing for endangering my climate? ;)

  7. Would someone be so kind to point myself to a good rebuttall of the AGW crowd meme that states the melting Artic ice caused it to snow EVERYWHERE. I want to reeducate a few people. Thanks

  8. Looks like climate “disruptions” due to CO2 build up to me! What does the sun have to do with climate, anyway?

  9. I thought you were going to take this week off. Shame on you Mr. Watts.
    (rant off)
    This is just weather. Nothing to see, move along.
    Now if the east had temps 2 degrees above normal, …

  10. local forecasters say we may even have snow on the mountain peaks in and around phoenix tomorrow night. it usually snows here about once a decade. guess this is it.

  11. Well, I’m glad somebody is getting snow. Here in Denver, CO we have yet to see any significant snowfall at all, and it’s already almost New Year. This is getting ridiculous.

    It’s not only that, but the weather has just been downright unusual this year along the Front Range. It seems like we’ve been stuck in Groundhog Day ever since the middle of last July. We get the same stinking weather every day: no clouds, no wind, nothing but still air and sun, all day, every day. I hate days like that; I just hate ‘em, I tell ya! The onset of winter has brought only a general decrease in temperatures, not a change in the overall pattern.

    Can anybody explain this?

    The only way I can figure it to myself is by saying that all the low pressure systems that have been affecting other parts of the northern hemisphere must be balanced out by some corresponding high pressure somewhere else; all the artic troughs bringing record cold temperatures to the southeast must be accompanied by tropical ridges in the west; and Denver just happened to be unlucky enough to reap the flipside of what was going on elsewhere.

    But I’d really appreciate it if this would change. If I have to see any more sunshine, I’m afraid my retinas are going to melt. I’m a creature of the darkness; I like clouds and storms and rain and fog, not this blasted, unremitting sun! Can anybody offer some relief?

  12. Nor’easters are ferocious storms but not uncommon. The trick in the headline is “December”. This could turn into a very interesting winter but its just weather.

  13. But this can’t possibly be so! I’ve been reading UK papers talking about the snow there, and all the warmists are telling me that it’s warmer than usual everywhere else, including the Northeast US.

  14. Come on Guys you are clutching at straws, everybody knows this is caused by man made CO2, it must be because the Climate Scientists can’t think of anything else to blame it on. So it must be CO2.
    Sarc off.

  15. You guys on the east coast better enjoy this, as it is a rare and exciting event, probably won’t happen again until the year 4200

  16. I heard something about the next storm system out west possibly bringing snow to Northern Mexico. Should be interesting! For those in the south like me stock up on salt. Here’s a news story about local government here doing that http://tinyurl.com/2fkzbz3

  17. Between Pamela and the North Pacific Ocean lies Washington State. The folks of the NWS are saying a cold spell is coming and will bring scattered snow showers to the lowlands of WA west of the Cascades. Their all CAPS forecasts are filled with shorthand, mis-spellings, and acronyms. Of the latter is this – PSCZ.

    PSCZ: The Puget Sound Convergence Zone is a small scale weather maker described here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puget_Sound_Convergence_Zone

    So far this season we have had one early cold spell in November followed by the expected showery and cool (not cold) pattern suggested by previous La Niña periods. So there is little new on the left side of the continent.
    —————————-

    RobW says:
    December 28, 2010 at 9:17 am
    . . . rebuttall of the AGW crowd meme that states the melting Artic ice caused it to snow EVERYWHERE.

    First, note that Anthony’s headline mentions this storm as the heaviest in six decades. The most intense snow in NYC was in 1888

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/27/just-another-east-coast-blizzard/

    This and other storms would also all have to be linked to lack of Arctic Ocean ice (or something) for that argument to work. And if that could be done it still has no place for SUVs and coal fired electric plants.

    Second: Ask them if it snowed everywhere in 2007?
    Maybe someone can find a summary but my point is that NOAA had not signed on to the argument back then.

    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071009_outlook.html

    The folks you mention now need an explanation for cold and snow so they cast far and wide. The High Pressure block that was off the N. American area for the previous few weeks was part of the normal patterns and not set up by lack of ice from months ago. The blocking High that set up over Russia in the summer (remember the fires?) was of a similar type, just in a different location.

    Be prepared to be ignored or for a new and different argument each time you explain why their current one doesn’t work.

  18. Piers Corbyn issued this warning earlier in December:
    “Very Major snow and blizzard events will strike NE & E USA in a double hit centered around 25-27th & 29-30th Dec.
    “This is likely to be one of the most significant snowfall/blizzard periods in NE & East USA for decades”.

    Piers was right yet again! A true champion – what a legend :)

  19. That “5th largest ever” has got to be for December, I should think. Generally the north east has the best storms in January and February. The ocean in December is usually too warm to support a decent snowstorm. Good month for freezing rain.

    Hmm, Bloomberg says “Central Park had 20 inches of snow by 8 a.m. yesterday”, the NWS says “7.8 inches.”

    Different yesterdays. http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx
    says 12 inches on the 26th (record remains 25.5 in 1947) and 7.8″ on the 27th (old record 4.8 in 1984).

  20. Disruption,disruption? Like Tradition, tradition? What mindless group think came up with global climate disruption as a label for weather?

  21. Mr. Alex says:
    December 28, 2010 at 10:39 am

    Piers Corbyn issued this warning earlier in December:

    “Very Major snow and blizzard events will strike NE & E USA in a double hit centered around 25-27th & 29-30th Dec.
    “This is likely to be one of the most significant snowfall/blizzard periods in NE & East USA for decades”.

    Piers was right yet again! A true champion – what a legend :)

    My calendar says it’s the 28th. The NWS forecast for the next couple of days for Concord NH is:

    Wednesday…Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Wind chill values as low as 5 below in the morning.

    Wednesday Night…Mostly clear. Lows around 15. Northwest winds around 10 mph in the evening…becoming light and variable.

    Thursday…Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds.

    Thursday Night…Mostly clear in the evening…then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 10 to 15.

    One chicken, two eggs, and that second egg isn’t looking very healthy.

  22. We may not have gotten any snow here in NW Florida, but we set a new record low and by a significiant amount: Old low was 24 F; new low was 16F.

  23. I just listened to Piers Corbyn on Fox News talking about the coolish Global Warming.

    He seems to have a good grasp of cooling details.

  24. Matt B says:
    December 28, 2010 at 10:09 am

    In reply, right now what is driving weather systems is a high pressure blocking located pretty much right smack dab over Colorado. This has effected every neighbor state. If you look at the current jet stream, it seems that the monstrosity that went through over Christmas weakened it slightly (it had to reform) and there now appears to be a stable jetstream to the south of the block.

    As a note, this will extend westward out to California and all the way into the east as the strorms will still track mostly north or south of Colorado. As for Colorado, the last time this happened, you didn’t get winter weather so to speak until around Feb. Its happened before, it just changes the la nina conditions. Now we will see more southern storms then usual and I am willing to bet more northern storms too. However, for the central states, probably very little snowfall and precipitation until late winter.

    With such a strong la nina, I wouldn’t put it past old man winter to give the south another dusting or two with the weather tracking like it is, and the NorthEast will definitly get hit again. Just the way it is with such a wet winter combined with cold conditions. Some areas are going to be dry simply because of the blocking high pressure zone. The rest of the US is going to have some fun digging out.

  25. That video of the clumsy snow plow is simply more proof of AGW. You see, it has been so warm and snow free for so long that the art of snow removal has clearly been forgotten. Competent snow removal. Another victim of AGW. Pretty sad, actually.

  26. Matt B says:
    December 28, 2010 at 10:09 am

    NAM model falling in line with other models on 12z run; Looks like snow on Thursday into Friday – probably 2-4″ in the city, 3-6″ foothills & SW
    It’s not much it beats what we have been getting

  27. Tim Clark said on December 28, 2010 at 8:54 am:

    We can only pray that the snow will never melt at:
    3 United Nations Plaza, New York

    No fear, from anywhere around the UN there will never be a shortage of snow jobs.

  28. Sorry posted to quick, Matt, Seattle has what you seek but you will tire of it rather quickly too. Hope you do get something better soon.

  29. RobW says:
    December 28, 2010 at 9:17 am

    Would someone be so kind to point myself to a good rebuttall of the AGW crowd meme that states the melting Artic ice caused it to snow EVERYWHERE. I want to reeducate a few people. Thanks

    That’s easy. Tell them that should we return to milder winters then AGW is false. ;>)

    You can point them to scientific papers predicting warming in the Northern latitudes during winter. Ask them whether those papers are now invalid.

    June 4, 1999
    “Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model”

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/06/990604081638.htm

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6735/abs/399452a0.html

  30. “Ric Werme says:
    December 28, 2010 at 11:09 am
    One chicken, two eggs, and that second egg isn’t looking very healthy.”

    Big deal, let me cut out that last bit from the quote *snips out “& 29-30th Dec.”*
    Piers is correct so far… sheesh killjoys.

    The point is that here we have a skeptic who is fighting a battle against the so-called “experts” (UK Met Office) and he is winning.

  31. Wow guys, this is great. My heartfelt thanks to all who have provided commentary and data.

    Local weather reports say we’ll be getting frigid cold and snow by Thursday (thank the Lord), but this La Nina is a real killer. The report of record low snow totals squares well with my anecdotal experience.

  32. RobW says:
    December 28, 2010 at 9:17 am

    Would someone be so kind to point myself to a good rebuttall of the AGW crowd meme that states the melting Artic ice caused it to snow EVERYWHERE. I want to reeducate a few people. Thanks

    Here is what Kevin Trenberth has to say:

    “I am aware of some German work that suggests the cold outbreak pattern might somehow be stimulated by reduced Arctic Sea Ice. I have not seen the study but count me skeptical.

    The cold and snow in Europe was “balanced” by very warm temperatures in Greenland: classical negative NAO [ North Atlantic Oscillation]: perhaps.

    The was a large so-called blocking high in North Atlantic that led to the polar outbreaks into Europe and so that is where the cold air went, making it warmer in behind. Now that is more a weather or meteorological description, not a statement of cause.”

    http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/27/wintry-weather-and-global-warming/#more-28505

  33. RobW says:
    December 28, 2010 at 9:17 am

    Would someone be so kind to point myself to a good rebuttall of the AGW crowd meme that states the melting Artic ice caused it to snow EVERYWHERE. I want to reeducate a few people. Thanks

    =======
    Lets see if we can make it simple for them.

    Given that the IPCC is NOT projecting adverse surface temperature scenarios until about 2060 (unless you wish to discard IPCC findings in favor of MSM muse), all news media articles claiming a current correlation between weather events and AGW impacts should be dismissed as fiction.

    Scenarios: 2010-2030. Part I
    by Judith Curry

    http://judithcurry.com/2010/12/23/scenarios-2010-2030-part-i/

    “The IPCC AR4 projected a near term global average temperature increase of 0.2C per decade. Further, the AR4 showed an insensitivity of global average surface temperature to emission scenarios prior to about 2060.”

  34. Saw s0me sillyness about Santa Barbera on the web, news that a Pa. outdoor hockey rink is melting and warm weather rumours for GB.

    So I checked. Santa Barbera 18C ie. room temperature- nice.Philly 37F. Yup melting. London 7C. Dublin8C.

    Get your wooly mamoths ready the ice age cometh.

  35. Baa Humbug says:
    December 28, 2010 at 9:00 am
    Between the snows of the NH and the rains here in Oz, the volumes involved are mind boggling. It takes huge amounts of energy to transport those volumes up to the atmosphere. Now that energy has been dumped…
    ______
    First, you do realize of course that both of these events are entirely consistent with an acceleration of the hydrological cycle, which is exactly that way the earth has responded for million of years to increased amounts of CO2?

    And to your second point…the energy that has been “dumped”. Tis true that the mass of water and snow represent energy by the E=mc2 equation, but I think more to your insinuation that somehow that energy that moved the moisture and snow has been “dumped”? It is of course still somewhere…(in the troposphere mainly) and with more CO2 in the same troposphere, more of that energy will be sure to remain around as opposed to being lost to space through the GH effect of CO2, with the net result that there is more net energy still around to do more dumping in the future, i.e., through the mechanism of the accelerated hydrological cycle as that energy must eventually go back into doing the work of evaporating water.

  36. John McManus:

    The hockey rink they are talking about is in Pittsburgh (where the NHL’s Winter Classic is being held at Heinz Field), not Philly. It’s expected to hit 50F that day. However, planners are more concerned with the prediction of rain than the temperature for the event.

    Personally, I’ll be happy to see 50F, as I’ll be polar bear plunging that morning. However, we’ve had highs in the 20s and lows in the teens all month, which is more mid-January/February than December temps around these parts. Knew I should have gotten that extra cord of wood for the wood burner when I placed my order ….

  37. I have some better news:

    http://tinyurl.com/24ojftq

    1.5 m(!) snow cover on Bornholm Island
    A powerful winter assault paralyzed the Danish island in the Baltic, Bornholm. Local authorities asked for help because they can not cope with snow, which plied the road. Residents of the island increasingly plagued by lack of medicines and fuel.

  38. Rgates “Tis true that the mass of water and snow represent energy by the E=mc2 equation, ”

    Hogwash and stop trying to sound scientific. The e=mc2 equation relates to the amount of energy tied up in matter and has nothing to do with the energy content of clouds unless you intend to spli apart the atoms of water vapor. Also kindly reference where the ipcc predicted colder winters as part of their models? Because we can all supply you with references where they said there would be warmer winters.

  39. RobW says:
    December 28, 2010 at 9:17 am

    “Would someone be so kind to point myself to a good rebuttall of the AGW crowd meme that states the melting Artic ice caused it to snow EVERYWHERE. I want to reeducate a few people. Thanks”

    The arctic ice is sitting exactly where it was sitting ten years ago. Why did this snow not happen ten years ago?

  40. Brc says:
    December 28, 2010 at 3:01 pm
    Rgates “Tis true that the mass of water and snow represent energy by the E=mc2 equation, ”

    Hogwash and stop trying to sound scientific. The e=mc2 equation relates to the amount of energy tied up in matter and has nothing to do with the energy content of clouds unless you intend to spli apart the atoms of water vapor. Also kindly reference where the ipcc predicted colder winters as part of their models? Because we can all supply you with references where they said there would be warmer winters.

    _____
    I’m fully aware of what e=mc2 stands for, thank you. You may want to go back and read my reply as I was replying with a bit of sarcasm about the “dumping” of energy. In terms of warmer or colder winters, you need to look at the global picture, not just Europe or the USA. 2010 will be one of the warmest years on instrument record. This is entirely consistent with AGW models. Arctic Sea ice today (12/28/10 ) is at its lowest point for this date in the satellite record, also, entirely consistent with AGW’s. I think AGW skeptics are making far too much of the cold weather in Europe, and in the long run, we could eventually learn that the lower sea ice levels are indeed affecting the outbreak of cold and snow for Europe.

  41. Does anyone know if the spread of all this white stuff exceeds ‘normal’ distributions by area? Northern hemisphere seems to have a higher land to ocean ratio than the south (I could be wrong about that), could that suggest a greater sensitivity to albedo changes?

    Most places marking above average temperatures (blocking highs, yes?) in this hemisphere seem to be over the northern latitudes where white (freezing temperatures or ice bodies) dominate despite the relative warmth and are also areas recieving the least incoming solar energy due to the curvature of the earth and atmosphere.

    The increased snow cover seems to be landing in places with longer days (latitudinally futher south) – where my mind nudges me to think that changes in albedo would matter more (a longer period of reduced net incoming energy).

    Could this be a possible negative feedback to these Blocking Highs that we’re observing (observing no doubt with greater understanding than in any incarnation in history)?

    I know, a chain of uncertainties (orders of magnitude fewer than CAGW though), but it was scratchin’ so I had to itch me. Anyone?

  42. John F. Hultquist:
    That Puget Sound Convergence Zone has given me many a rough ride in my years in aviation. Not so fondly remember many nights flying through one of those
    convergence fronts trying to make an approach at Sea Tac..

  43. The polar vortexes are driving the world climate. In the south where Antarctic pressure is low with a strong polar vortex, the AAO is overall very positive, which is driving the strength of the La Nina. The AAO is looking to go further into the positive region which should add extra strength and longevity to the La Nina. The La Nina at nino3-4 continues its negative trend.

    In the north the polar vortex has been weak, allowing dominance of arctic high pressure which influences a negative AO and NAO. The vortex has been gaining some strength over the past few days but is looking to break down again soon, which should load another pattern for the NH.

    Stratospheric temperatures are about average in the north and below average in the south.

    There is little knowledge on what controls the polar vortexes, but they are at opposites at the moment, this is a fertile place to invest scientific research.

  44. lots of good stuff in here:

    28 Dec: Boston Herald: Michael Graham: ‘Warming’ up to junk science
    According to members of the government/science funding axis pushing the theory of Anthropomorphic Global Warming – aka “Your Pick-Up Is Frying Our Planet” – the mountains of snowfall across North America actually prove the Earth is warming. Believe it or not, they say, warming actually makes the Earth colder…
    That very day a Professor Stephan Rahmstorf released a report saying climate change means “we have to anticipate milder winters rather than cold ones,” and that even our “cold” winters have gotten “warmer.”
    He says more warmth, not more cold, is proof of global warming. And who is this nut? He’s a scientist at the same Potsdam Institute.
    Which is why “climate change” is the perfect mantra of the modern bureaucrat and big-government activist: The evidence always proves you right…
    Meanwhile climatologist Piers Corbyn warned London of a white Christmas weeks ago. His models have been far more accurate than the UN-approved “science,” but he’s ignored.
    Why? Because Corbyn’s research shows the sun has far more to do with climate patterns than your Prius does. Unfortunately, there’s no money to be made at places like the Potsdam Institute studying things like the sun. No legislature can regulate excessive solar output, and there are no jobs to hand out at the Department of Sunshine Control…

    http://news.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view.bg?articleid=1305752&srvc=home&position=emailed

  45. R. Gates says:
    December 28, 2010 at 4:11 pm

    2010 will be one of the warmest years on instrument record. This is entirely consistent with AGW models. Arctic Sea ice today (12/28/10 ) is at its lowest point for this date in the satellite record, also, entirely consistent with AGW’s. I think AGW skeptics are making far too much of the cold weather in Europe, and in the long run, we could eventually learn that the lower sea ice levels are indeed affecting the outbreak of cold and snow for Europe.

    You are cherry picking again Gates, even with a strong long lasting El nino the world temps will not rise, the current readings (CH04) are taking a severe nose dive. The current monthly low of ice extent in the north is a product of the extreme high pressure over Greenland, which is part of the global cooling process (weak polar vortex). Strange that you continue not to mention the record ice extent in the south?

    Globally there is no problem with ice extent, is that consistent with the AGW models?

    The massive cold in the North is just beginning, you will find it harder to push aside as the winter continues.

  46. Thank you Mayor Schmuckberg for your heartfelt request for the taxpayers of NYC to remain patient until their streets can be plowed, a testament to the inefficiency of your office and the DOS (bet they plowed your street within minutes). And a big F.U. to the MTA for total suspension of all transportation. Gee, sure wasn’t a problem several years ago when transit workers went on strike several days before Christmas severely inconveniencing millions of New Yorkers. All this because it snowed, something that NEVER, EVER happens in NYC, right? I’ve lived in the city all 59 years of my life and it’s tragically laughable that whenever it snows city management acts like it’s an 36″ snowfall in the Everglades. Wouldn’t you think the city would be able to deal with snow by now?

  47. Speaking of the high over Greenland with that Nor’Easter heading out to the Atlantic,
    I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes things a bit….

  48. Cold and snow times come and go. In late December of 1947, New York City had 26 inches of snow. There was no place to push it, so it had to be gathered into trucks and dumped into the Hudson River. The “Mayor Lindsey” snowstorm in the 1970’s was no slouch either. Cars were stranded on the Thruway bridge over the Hudson for three days. In 1938 I skated on ice a foot thick on a cove in the Hudson River opposite West Point.

  49. Well said as always Geoff.

    “Vortexes” should be “vortices”, though. Unless you mates there down under say it differently. ;-)

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  50. savethesharks says:
    December 28, 2010 at 10:41 pm

    Thanks Chris…It did look wrong when I typed it, but there is some discussion on the right spelling, both can be used perhaps?

  51. RobW says: Would someone be so kind to point myself to a good rebuttall of the AGW crowd meme that states the melting Artic ice caused it to snow EVERYWHERE. I want to reeducate a few people. Thanks

    Just to add to what others have said… I find the most effective thing to be to simply look at them in astonishment, get that half laugh trying to hold it back look on; then say: Do you really believe that WARMTH makes it COLD and SNOWY? Reaaallly? Then chuckle in that “I’m so glad I’m not related to you” way and ask, patiently, if they would like it all explained?….

    FWIW, the “hot makes cold” argument all hinges on excess fresh water from exceptional melt in Greenland and the Arctic Ice Cap. Just point out that both are still there, so that’s not happened. Yes, the Gulf Stream has slowed down. That’s got nothing to do with Pacifc snows an rains (nor much of anything to do with the rest of North American snows either. Nor the cold winters in the Southern Hemisphere last winter there. So you can try to point out that error, but it’s not as effective as the “Why, you poor dear…” approach in my experience.

    I note in passing that R. Gates is still trying to pedal his mistaken hydrological cycle surmise. Hey, R. Gates: “You poor dear, would you like …” ;-)

  52. R. Gates says:
    First, you do realize of course that both of these events are entirely consistent with an acceleration of the hydrological cycle, which is …
    blah blah blah…

    Since everything is consistent with AGW theory and models then they have not falisification criteria and are non-scientific. It’s all “pig water”. (aka hogwash). Predicting everything then saying “See I was right on that!” is the work of snake oil salesmen, not science.

    What’s happening is heat LEAVING, not accumulating. Take a look at the ocean right now, it’s way cold:

    There’s nothing hot speeding up anything. There is a colder “cold end” to this heat engine of ours (those cold poles that have gone way cold lately) sucking the heat out of the oceans and yes, dumping it to space.

    I think more to your insinuation that somehow that energy that moved the moisture and snow has been “dumped”? It is of course still somewhere…(in the troposphere mainly)

    Nope. Long gone. Heat moves from the surface to the troposphere and out to space inside one day. You can see the process in the GEOS picture of the clouds over my head right now. Warmer on top as the water condenses and the heat is DUMPED into space for that Sat to see as IR in space. Colder down below where it’s snow in the mountains and very cold rain on my roof and yard. GEOS picture of IR leaving:

    Note that the warm green and blue parts of that GEOS picture are the cloud TOPS.

    The process of heat leaving and the daily cycle of it is covered in this paper:

    http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/31/68/93/PDF/angeo-19-1001-2001.pdf

    which I discuss here:

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/does-convection-dominate/

    but cover a bit better and with better graphics here:

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/28/ignore-the-day-at-your-peril/

    and with more CO2 in the same troposphere, more of that energy will be sure to remain around as opposed to being lost to space through the GH effect of CO2, with the net result that there is more net energy still around

    Drink that kool-aid…

    But, back at that paper that actually did field science and looked at tropospheric heating after land warming from sunshine…

    Abstract. The vertical velocity in the troposphere-lower
    stratosphere region measured
    using MST radar has been utilized
    to evaluate the temperature profile in the region. The
    diurnal variation of the tropospheric temperature on one day
    in August 1998 at the tropical station Gadanki (13.5 N,
    79.2 E) has been studied using the MST radar technique.
    The diurnal variation of the temperature revealed a prominent
    diurnal variation with the peak in the afternoon hours

    increasingly delayed in altitude. The tropopause temperature
    and altitude exhibited a clear diurnal cycle.

    Translation: Daily HEATING leaves THE SAME DAY and reaches the tropopause within HOURS.

    Your heat storage surmise is junk.

    to do more dumping in the future, i.e., through the mechanism of the accelerated hydrological cycle as that energy must eventually go back into doing the work of evaporating water.

    No. The energy has left the building … it’s cold water and snow / ice that comes back down from the clouds. Heat left going up.

    Stand under a thunder storm and catch the hail, then tell me how that’s heat going back to ‘evaporate water’…

    You are being incredibly ‘un physical’ in your descriptions, enough that any kid who’s played in the rain can see it. But just to make it very clear what really happens, from that paper, the conclusions section:

    5 Conclusion

    The study of the diurnal cycle of tropospheric temperature
    revealed the following:

    1. Tropospheric temperatures exhibit a prominent diurnal
    variation with one peak occurring at 16:00 LT. The observed
    diurnal cycle appears to be driven by surface
    heating caused by solar insolation;

    2. The occurrence of the afternoon peak is increasingly delayed
    with height;

    3. The tropopause temperature exhibits a prominent diurnal
    cycle with a peak around 15:00 and appears to respond
    to surface heating.

    15:00 is 3 in the afternoon. By 3 PM the heating of the land has risen all the way to the tropopause.

    Then it contiues out to space as the sun goes down and the whole Troposphere cools off. NOT staying in the air and NOT going back down to the cooling land.

    That’s what really happens when you measure and do field work and real science.

    So please, take your whole stored heat somehow clawing it’s way down from the tropopause via ice and snow to cause ocean heating thesis and chuck it. It’s worthless as real measurments of the process show the daily heat is all up in the air by 3 pm and gone after sundown. There isn’t any ‘stored heat’. Get over it.

  53. E.M.Smith says:
    December 29, 2010 at 3:00 am

    OUCH!

    I have just been reading “http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/28/ignore-the-day-at-your-peril/”
    Very interesting.

  54. E.M. Smith said:

    “So please, take your whole stored heat somehow clawing it’s way down from the tropopause via ice and snow to cause ocean heating thesis and chuck it. It’s worthless as real measurments of the process show the daily heat is all up in the air by 3 pm and gone after sundown. There isn’t any ‘stored heat’. Get over it.”

    ___

    Your rather colorful and fictionalized description of something I didn’t even say shows you have considerable literary talent…well done!

    In reality, what we are essentially talking about with AGW is of course the enthalpy of the earth’s ocean-atmospheric system. The latent heat processes involved in evaporation, condensation, formation of snow, etc. are all well understood and while each process is either exothermic or endothermic with respect to the system, what we are talking about is whether or not the 40% increase in CO2 since the 1700’s tips the earth’s ocean-atmospheric system from a neutral condition with respect to outer-space toward an exothermic or endothermic condition. Does the more of the latent heat created during the formation of snow for example, released to the troposphere, remain in the troposphere because of higher amounts of CO2, rather then getting released to outer-space? If the answer is yes, then, increasing amounts of CO2 create an net endothermic response of the earth’s ocean-atmospheric system with respect to outer-space, i.e., more energy is coming into the system then is leaving it. It would appear, based on millions of years of earth’s history, that this is exactly what increasing the amount CO2 in the troposphere does do…create a net endothermic response (with respect to outer-space), altering the the energy “budget” for the earth’s ocean-atmospheric system, leaving more energy in the system to acclerate the hydrological cycle, which in turn removes that excess CO2 from the atmosphere through increased rock weathering and the ultimate creation of greater amounts of limestone at the bottom of the ocean, which is the earth’s natural repository of excess CO2.

    As a side note, it would seem apparent that, in addition to simply measuring stream flows, etc. that using such measuring tools as the eddy covariance, it whatever form, would be one way of measuring the additional heat in the troposphere over time to identify one of the causative parameters to the acceleration of the hydrological cycle.

  55. Geoff Sharp says:
    December 28, 2010 at 6:08 pm
    R. Gates says:
    December 28, 2010 at 4:11 pm

    2010 will be one of the warmest years on instrument record. This is entirely consistent with AGW models. Arctic Sea ice today (12/28/10 ) is at its lowest point for this date in the satellite record, also, entirely consistent with AGW’s. I think AGW skeptics are making far too much of the cold weather in Europe, and in the long run, we could eventually learn that the lower sea ice levels are indeed affecting the outbreak of cold and snow for Europe.

    You are cherry picking again Gates, even with a strong long lasting El nino the world temps will not rise, the current readings (CH04) are taking a severe nose dive. The current monthly low of ice extent in the north is a product of the extreme high pressure over Greenland, which is part of the global cooling process (weak polar vortex). Strange that you continue not to mention the record ice extent in the south?

    ___
    We’ve not had a postive sea ice anomaly in the Arctic since 2004, yet we’ve had many negative and positive anomalies in the Antarctic Sea ice in that time. When, in the very unlikely event, that we get a 6 year (or even 2 or 3 year) period of a positive sea ice anomaly in Antarctica, I’d be glad to comment, but right now, not much of interest there, (except for what appears to be higher temps in deep ocean currents around the area) whereas the Arctic is changing fast…

  56. I really dig those maps from <a href="http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/custom/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,lowmax,highmin&s=20101221"HAMweather; thanks for showing us that site!

    I remember about two weeks ago, when Anthony posted a map in his post about Hundreds of new cold and snow records set in the USA for the week ending Dec. 12. That was a humdinger: record low and lowest-max temperatures outnumbered record high and highest-min temps 7:1!

    Good thing he wasn’t posting over the Christmas holidays, or I’m sure he would have felt obligated to post about the week ending Dec. 24 when record high and highest-max temperatures in the US outnumbered record low and lowest-max temps 24:1.

    At least we got a post about all the snow in the UK. I guess Anthony follows the news wherever the cold weather takes him.

  57. Why do you new media lie so much?

    In the 60s, we had 30 FEET oir more, of snow often, and over several lyears.

  58. Bonnie (somehow) manages to express this thought on December 29, 2010 at 3:44 pm:

    Why do you new media lie so much?

    In the 60s, we had 30 FEET oir [sic] more, of snow often, and over several lyears [sic].

    Could you repeat for me: “She sells sea shells down by the sea shore” thrice swiftly.

    Next, while standing on your left foot slowly extend your right foot forward like this while …

    .

  59. Anonymous Howard says:
    December 29, 2010 at 11:18 am

    At least we got a post about all the snow in the UK. I guess Anthony follows the news wherever the cold weather takes him.

    ============================

    Anonymous Howard,

    So….what’s your point?

    And document, please the 24:1 ratio you are talking about.

    Also note, the warm bubble due to the ridge in the west (and all of those record high temps) is crashing right now and, like usual, in contrast, the eastern US will warm up (for a time).

    Note the severe winter weather alerts…quite a few in the SAME place where the high records were before….quite a big reversal to the” OMG the sky is falling the world is warming” frantic antics of your posts.

    http://www.wunderground.com/severe.asp

    And not remotely gentlemanly and honorable of you to attack a man (Anthony) while he is gone on vacation.

    If you don’t like his blog, then you can go somewhere else.

    But don’t be dishonorable and just sit there and make potshots.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  60. I highly reccomend the original “The Coming Ice Age” that Leanord Nimoy did on In Search Of.
    We are there…where the last cooling left off… and it only took a few short years to get there.

  61. actually, in between all the bickering here and the science, there are a few good pieces of good fundamental meteorological science that have been spilled. overall, this blog has both good contributors and some very bad ones, but in general (average) this stuff is at least indicative of much more debate and thought provoking discourse than, say, the hockey schtick as I call it, presented by Al Bore, in; “A Profit Making BULLSHIT STORY” of his.

    it’s one thing for us to quibble and hem and haw, but there are processes happening far off beyond this solar system that are contributing more to these climate changes, perhaps far more, than any planetary changes we think we all have good handles on here. those are fundamentally the blockages of solar energy well before that energy can be absorbed here on earth, either by the atmosphere, or any land or ocean masses below. what is the major cause of this ‘change’ has far more to do with a significantly smaller amount of direct solar radiation making it to earth, mostly due to blocking that occurs naturally between the earth’s orbit and the position of the sun, at distances that make any human intervention or possible intervention, laughable.

    but I digress. the blog is a good gang here. a few drive by shooters, but overall, good discussion.

    Hint: look further out than our own atmosphere, for the real causes. that’s where they are.

  62. Anonymous Howard says:
    December 29, 2010 at 11:18 am
    I really dig those maps from <a href="http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/custom/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,lowmax,highmin&s=20101221"HAMweather; thanks for showing us that site!

    I remember about two weeks ago, when Anthony posted a map in his post about Hundreds of new cold and snow records set in the USA for the week ending Dec. 12. That was a humdinger: record low and lowest-max temperatures outnumbered record high and highest-min temps 7:1!

    Good thing he wasn’t posting over the Christmas holidays, or I’m sure he would have felt obligated to post about the week ending Dec. 24 when record high and highest-max temperatures in the US outnumbered record low and lowest-max temps 24:1.

    At least we got a post about all the snow in the UK. I guess Anthony follows the news wherever the cold weather takes him.

    With only 15 records total. Good grief. That’s the most cherry picked date you could find for the month of December. Why don’t you revisit that site for Dec. 30, one day following your non-robust posting. Around 300 record cold records. Geesh.

    http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/7day/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,lowmax,highmin&s=20101225&e=20101225

  63. check out this doc from the early 60’s… weather was so bad new york almost cancelled christmas… lol

  64. savethesharks says: (December 29, 2010 at 8:55 pm)

    So….what’s your point?

    And document, please the 24:1 ratio you are talking about.

    I linked to the HAMweather site where I got the data. Unfortunately, that site doesn’t allow you to link to a week’s worth of data (except the most recent week), so I only linked to one day. But all you have to do is change the date in the little dropdown box to see any other day.

    Here are the total Continental US records for the week ending December 24, 2010:

    High Temperatures        : 271 
    Low Temperatures         :   7
    Lowest Max Temperatures  :  17
    Highest Min Temperatures : 618
    

    High to low records = 889 to 24 = 37 to 1 (I had a math error in my earlier calculation.)

    A couple weeks ago, Anthony crowed about a week with hundreds of new cold and snow records, and just this morning there is a new post trumpeting that record lows outpace record highs 21 to 1 this week.

    In between those two weeks was a week when record highs outpaced record lows 39 to 1 (271/7). And during that week, your attention on this site was diverted to Western Europe where the snow, like confirmation bias, lay heavy on the ground.

    What is my point? The answer is: What was Anthony’s point?

    And not remotely gentlemanly and honorable of you to attack a man (Anthony) while he is gone on vacation.

    Seriously? I wrote my comment one day after he wrote his post (while on vacation apparently) along with 80 or so other people on a public blog on the Internet with an open comment form that is gated by moderators… and I’m a bad guy because I didn’t check his schedule first? Did you notice that Anthony Watts posted something every day this week?

Comments are closed.