Up slightly from .489 last month to .511 a change of .022 degrees C
August 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.51 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
While the global-average lower tropospheric temperature remained high, +0.51 deg. C in August, 2010, monitoring of the daily Aqua Ch.5 data at the Discover web site suggests that the cooling of global average sea surface temperatures that started several months ago is now causing the troposphere to cool as well. I will probably provide an update of that plot tomorrow.
Plot and recent data below:
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068
2009 2 0.247 0.565 -0.071 -0.045
2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159
2009 4 0.162 0.315 0.008 0.012
2009 5 0.139 0.161 0.118 -0.059
2009 6 0.041 -0.021 0.103 0.105
2009 7 0.429 0.190 0.668 0.506
2009 8 0.242 0.236 0.248 0.406
2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594
2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383
2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479
2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476
2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.342 0.420
2010 8 0.511 0.672 0.349 0.362
As of Julian Day 243 (end of August), the race for warmest year in the 32-year satellite period of record is still too close to call with 1998 continuing its lead by only 0.06 C:
YEAR GL
1998 +0.61
2010 +0.55
As a reminder, six months ago we changed to Version 5.3 of our dataset, which accounts for the mismatch between the average seasonal cycle produced by the older MSU and the newer AMSU instruments. This affects the value of the individual monthly departures, but does not affect the year to year variations, and thus the overall trend remains the same as in Version 5.2. ALSO…we have added the NOAA-18 AMSU to the data processing in v5.3, which provides data since June of 2005. The local observation time of NOAA-18 (now close to 2 p.m., ascending node) is similar to that of NASA’s Aqua satellite (about 1:30 p.m.). The temperature anomalies listed above have changed somewhat as a result of adding NOAA-18.
[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT’s are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]
What’s the typical lag time between the strong las nina we are seeing developing & reflection of that in the atmospheric temps?
My thanks to Roy Spencer for his untiring work on updating and fully explaining the UAH record.
I agree with him that the Tropospheric temperature will soon be following SST’s down the slope. I predicted an anomaly as cool as Jan 2008 by Feb 2011 some 8 months ago. I still stand by that.
And for those interested, I posted the preliminary August SST anomaly data:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/08/preliminary-august-2010-sst-anomaly.html
I the atmosphere follows the sea surface temps – will we see another harsh NH winter this December?
Dr Roy,
When you comment on your pocket PRTs, some people think you are trying to slip some Pyramid Inch scale by us somehow.
Can’ty ou simply tell them that those surface thermometers aren’t any better than your PRTs anyway !
Anyway, I believe you; and for me, that’s what counts.
I’m still not sure that I understand just exactly what your SSTs are actually reading as far as how thick is whatever surface layer that is being registered. So how does that SST read from above again ?
George
It is always delightful to see real unadulterated data on climate, whether the trend is up or down. Political climatologists are so wrong about the vast majority of skeptics. When someone mixes up an elixir for profit (however defined) and tells you to trust it, it will cure all your ailments. Who do you think will be the buyers/sellers and who will be the skeptics? The unquestioning buyers/sellers are the gullible, wishful thinkers and those whose ends are served, like, for example, the elixir salesperson. In the elixir case, who could reasonably vilify one from Missouri? Why would the Missouran be obliged to prove that the elixir is inefficaceous? Why is elixir also called snake oil? Thank God for Missouri.It has at last begun to truly open up a prematurely and hurriedly closed debate. Interestingly, except for a desperate flurry of drive-by, the-end-is-nigh papers without time for data, models and codes, like the explosion of a 4th of July rocket at the end of its flight, there is an unmistakable end of a manic (I resisted the pun) crazy era. Roy’s satellite will chart our way back from the last vestiges of the Little Ice Age and a century of alternating hot and cold scary debates will be over. At some point not impossibly far away an Ice Age awaits.
When comparing the different hemisphere’s temperature records it is obvious that the majority of movement is controlled by the northern hemisphere. While it has been colder than average in the south, it will take the northern hemisphere polar region which is poised to play its winter jet stream game, before global temperatures start to dive.
Doc, I have to ask about that global image accompanying this post. It shows S America way ABOVE average? Where is all the SNOW and freezing temps well into Brazil? And record lows in the Amazon? Frozen cattle in Paraguay?
Did August go by really quickly? Am I remembering July?
I’m confused… how on Earth are we determining global average temperature to an accuracy of 0.01 of a degree?
Calibration against/with the surface temperature record.
When the satellite was first launched, Hansen’s GISS record was just about the only record available, and it was considered accurate. Therefore, the satellite output was developed based on what was thought to be the earth’s surface temperature.
Now, several “un-corrupted” (er, un-corrected) rural records from long-term global thermometers are available, and most differ greatly from Hansen’s adulterated values from 1990-2010. Will you re-calibrate the troposphere-surface correlation based on valid world-wide surface records, or let it stand with the original relationship?
Just technically off the chart, it should crash now, as El Nino has ended.
Best keep an eye out here for an idea of whether we dive or thrive in the future.
http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions/
Lots of raised alert levels coming in and at some big ones, capable of pluming a lot of reflective SO2 and H2S into the stratosphere. Hope they hold off a about a year or so.
RACookPE1978, Dr Spencer clearly stated in his post that the satellite figures are not calibrated against surface temperature records:
He puts this on almost all of his posts because of the misconception that you’ve stated.
The partial coverage of the globe in that image is unsatisfactory.
Is there a reason why you don’t have two images to show the global picture?
I’d like to see Europe (especially the Moscow area) and an image of the SH winter too.
Two images please. Thanks.
REPLY: Never look a gift horse in the mouth. We graciously take what Dr. Spencer provides without complaint. In this case I think he was trying to illustrate the El Niño area effect in the troposphere. – Anthony
Jeff L says:
September 2, 2010 at 4:23 pm (Edit)
What’s the typical lag time between the strong las nina we are seeing developing & reflection of that in the atmospheric temps?
Three to five months.
Graeme says:
September 2, 2010 at 4:55 pm
I the atmosphere follows the sea surface temps – will we see another harsh NH winter this December?
Cold but fine is my prediction. Depends on your definition of ‘harsh’ I suppose. In low lying England, ‘harsh’ is “Can’t get my car out of the drive.” In Himalayan Nepal it’s “My cattle have frozen to death.”
Seems as though temps won’t go down until global ssts do. But thouse lag the Nino 3.4 ssts by a bit. Guess we’ll see when cooling begans.
Gary Pearse says:
September 2, 2010 at 6:40 pm
It is always delightful to see real unadulterated data on climate, whether the trend is up or down.
I assume this is intended to be a dig at GISS (or Hadley). Tell you what when the GISS/Hadley August anomalies are released I predict they will be relatively lower than the UAH anomaly- as they have been throughout 2010 . By “relatively” I mean relative to a common base period (i.e. 1979-1998).
If , however, you are referring to “adjustments” then be aware that the UAH satellite record was adjusted earlier this year which resulted in Jan, Feb & Mar anomalies being lowered by ~0.1 deg each. Adjustments are part and parcel of data maintenance.
Why is a 20 year period (79 – 98) taken for the ‘average’ with which to compare against when many of the ‘climate scientists’ apparently think some randomly selected 30 year period is the holy grail of references?
There is 30 years of satellite data available, why not use it?
Geoff Sharp says: September 2, 2010 at 7:01 pm
When comparing the different hemisphere’s temperature records it is obvious that the majority of movement is controlled by the northern hemisphere.
You are right there,
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/UAH.htm
but it would be helpful to know why is it so, is it a long term or just a temporary imbalance.
tallbloke says:
September 3, 2010 at 12:09 am
Three to five months.
Indeed. Though you might find that when the UAH anomalies remain high while GISS/Hadley surface anomalies fall (e.g. during a developing La Nina) it’s because of the ‘lag’, but when the GISS/Hadley anomalies increase while UAH remains steady (e.g. during a developing El Nino) it’s because the data is being fiddled.
It will be interesting to see what the next month brings as falling SST and NH land mass start to cool the atmosphere. Like many here, I fear this winter will be very cold again here in Sunny Sussex. Last winter I was snowed in for 5 days – not a typical south coast event!
What would happen to the graph if the anomaly period was 1979-2009?
I was talking with a student from Japan and she confirmed that the anomomously hot summer in her homeland is causing quite a stir there. Evidently it’s been the hottest summer since the record keeping started in 1898. I’m not sure how well the Japanese take UHI into account.
August 2010 in the UK was cooler and very much wetter that the so called ‘normal’. With SH temperatures at near record lows then I find it difficult to believe that globally August 2010 has been one of the warmest. Also the DMI has shown that north of 80N has been at near record low temperatures. So somewhere in the NH it has really been hot but I do not know where?