By Steve Goddard
NCEP is forecasting temperatures far above normal for the next week in Europe. I don’t think I have ever seen the Europe map so red before. This is a reflection of very warm sea surface temperatures west of Europe over the last month, as seen in the video below.
Meanwhile, South America is expected to be equally far below normal.
Sea surface temperatures west of South America have been running well below normal (developing La Niña.)
The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.
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The ancients had a word for the effects you are describing: weather.
Who knew that it might be hot in summer while at the same time being cold in the antipodean winter.
Obviously more research is needed.
Please send money.
The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.
Indeed, even a broken watch is right twice a day.
Greetings from the currently overheated Central Europe – Pilsen, Czechia. It’s up to 36 deg Celsius in our cities but it’s kind of pleasant if you have access to swimming pools etc. We expect thundestorms and cooling as early as tomorrow but we could have tropical – above 30 deg C – temperatures for the big part of this week.
If the cause of the above normal temperatures in Europe is above average sea surface temperatures west of Europe, why do England and Norway look so normal? Why is the hottest spot around Archangel and north-central Russia south of the White Sea? Interesting that the temperatures around the Mediterranean look so normal.
“The Met Office should have stuck with their barbecue summer forecast. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.”
I’m surprised they didn’t.
That’s what they practice, throw enough out there and something is bound to be right.
More snow, less snow
Hotter, colder
Wetter, drier
More ice, less ice
You name, they have it covered.
Love the link that RGates posted.
Now they ever have the next ice age covered.
Keep in mind this is New Scientist, ok. But the fact that they printed it says it all.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19155-soaring-arctic-temperatures–a-warning-from-history.html
“”At that time, CO2 levels are thought to have been close to current levels – around 390 parts per million – but global temperatures were around 2 to 3 °C warmer than today.
It was the last warm period before the onset of the Pleistocene glaciation,
and is used by climate researchers as a model for our future climate.””
This is interesting, especially since central South America has seen above average temperatures last week:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan15.gif
And so has Europe:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan1.gif
The Met Office just refuse to issue seasonal forecasts now. Not because they were a contrary indicator, of course not. No – it was because the stupid public couldn’t understand them.
Coastal Europe, Iceland, Ireland, the UK and Norway appear to be mostly neutral to negative anomaly; no barbecue there. The higher Atlantic SST effects central Europe how, by a change in the jet stream? High pressure?
Be that as it may, NASA-GISS has anounced that the 12-month running-mean global temp has reached a new record in 2010, despite the recent solar minimum. But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing, too?
Imagine how hot it would be if we had not installed so many wind turbines and solar panels.
It makes sense gov; summer overhere, winter overthere .
Unrelated to this, but the surfacestations.org front page hasn’t been updated in almost a year. Did it get past the 82% at that time?
Yeah it’s been hot here in Germany, but cooler weather is the forecast.
But Joe Bastardi predicted a hot summer months ago for Europe, and is right.
And Europe isn’t the only pace heating up.
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/07/12/russian-scientists-sun-is-waking-up-solar-particles-reaching-the-earth-and-possible-magnetic-storms-possible/
Anthony and his team may want to expand on this.
Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.
Luboš Motl says:
July 12, 2010 at 10:45 am
Greetings from the currently overheated Central Europe – Pilsen, Czechia. It’s up to 36 deg Celsius in our cities but it’s kind of pleasant if you have access to swimming pools etc. We expect thundestorms and cooling as early as tomorrow but we could have tropical – above 30 deg C – temperatures for the big part of this week.
huh. you must be getting our summer. cold here in california-
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/07/record-cold-at-lax-airport-as-july-gloom-continues-in-southern-california.html
Unusually cold temperatures in Southern California continued, with Los Angeles International Airport setting a record low on Friday.
LAX got to only 67 degrees, breaking a record set in 1926, according to the National Weather Service.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/jul/06/grsq-dreary-clouds-last-until-mid-week/
The temperature only reached 62 degrees in Oceanside Harbor. The record “low high” for this date is 65. That record was set in 2002. The harbor averages a high of 74 degrees this time of year.
Cool Guys over at Un RealClimate unaffected by European Weather.
“The long-awaited and surprisingly thorough Muir Russell report (readable online version) was released this morning. We’ve had a brief read through of the report, but a thorough analysis of this and the supplemental information on the web site will have to wait for a day or so.”
Our Gav and his mate Mickey Taker are over the moon with Lord Muir of the Wash?
So I says:-
So this is cheering news boys?
When someone says delete the emails they mean save the emails? Obvious see.
When someone uses a trick to hide the decline they mean delete the inconvenient data? Well I never.
The report has as much value has the Widgery Report and Hutton Report?
The Met Office have predicted for 2010 “Climate could warm to record levels in 2010”
the website is still there
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html
though probably not for much longer, as this will prove to be about as accurate as their recent efforts.
Best greetings from Jülich in Germany. This morning there was…a sandstrom over the city. No, the sand wasn’t blown away from Africa, but from the next open cast mining.
Roald says:
July 12, 2010 at 11:01 am
“But wait, didn’t NASA fake the moon landing,”
What have you been smoking?
Notice that the base period for anomaly calculation is 1901-2000 CRU data set.
If you watch these things over a month or two, you’ll see them going off the deep trend end.
If it’s below normal, they’ll forecast snowball hell.
If it’s above normal, they’ll forecast fire & brimstone.
The grandmaster climate system easily crushes the hapless program.
The GCM’s are novice at the game, not being able to think more than 2 moves ahead.
If only there were some way to look at the global average temperature over a period of time to find out if these regional temperature fluctuations were part of a larger trend.
Cold winters usually tend to bring warm summers. Winter here ( The Netherlands )was colder then the last ten.
the problem with this claim is a simple one: the winter in the northern hemisphere was WARM, not cold.
and the summer is also warm.
your rule is not a good explanation for the heat.
———————-
comparing Europe with South America is fine. but Steven could have mentioned the rest of the world, at least in one sentence.
Here in Greece we have had a cool June and a cool July up to now, temperatures rarely over 32degrees and mostly in unusual 27 28C. People are commenting that is September weather and not July.
It has been an air conditioned summer, i.e no need for it, since the nights are cool.
July usually hits over 37C for days, often reaches 40 and sometimes 45, so I think their anomalies are off.
Just listened for Athens and it gives 37 maximum tomorrow. I am by the sea and I doubt it will be 34C
We have had a pleasant warm summer with plenty of sunshine hours here in the northern UK. This has more to do with the jet streams moving south of us than sst’s being high though.
Do we have a greater disconnect from the tropics than previously?
A European summers/winters usually have many Atlantic lows, bringing cooler moister weather in the summer, and warmer moister weather in the winter.
Now we have very few Atlantic lows, giving a cold dry winter/spring, and a hot dry summer.
Is the same happening in the S. Atlantic – I have not been following the weather patterns there.
.