June 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.44 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature remains warm, +0.44 deg. C for June, 2010, but it appears the El Nino warmth is waning as a La Nina approaches.
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068
2009 2 0.247 0.564 -0.071 -0.045
2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159
2009 4 0.162 0.316 0.008 0.012
2009 5 0.140 0.161 0.119 -0.059
2009 6 0.043 -0.017 0.103 0.110
2009 7 0.429 0.189 0.668 0.506
2009 8 0.242 0.235 0.248 0.406
2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594
2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383
2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479
2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.552 0.321 0.475
For those keeping track of whether 2010 ends up being a record warm year, 1998 still leads with the daily average for 1 Jan to 30 June being +0.64 C in 1998 compared with +0.56 C for 2010. (John Christy says that the difference is not statistically significant.) As of 30 June 2010, there have been 181 days in the year. From our calibrated daily data, we find that 1998 was warmer than 2010 on 122 (two-thirds) of them.
As a reminder, four months ago we changed to Version 5.3 of our dataset, which accounts for the mismatch between the average seasonal cycle produced by the older MSU and the newer AMSU instruments. This affects the value of the individual monthly departures, but does not affect the year to year variations, and thus the overall trend remains the same as in Version 5.2. ALSO…we have added the NOAA-18 AMSU to the data processing in v5.3, which provides data since June of 2005. The local observation time of NOAA-18 (now close to 2 p.m., ascending node) is similar to that of NASA’s Aqua satellite (about 1:30 p.m.). The temperature anomalies listed above have changed somewhat as a result of adding NOAA-18.
[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT’s are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]
2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068
2009 2 0.247 0.564 -0.071 -0.045
2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159
2009 4 0.162 0.316 0.008 0.012
2009 5 0.140 0.161 0.119 -0.059
2009 6 0.043 -0.017 0.103 0.110
2009 7 0.429 0.189 0.668 0.506
2009 8 0.242 0.235 0.248 0.406
2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594
2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383
2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479
2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.552 0.321 0.475
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That’s quite a drop !!
Roy,
Why is there lag between SST and TLT temperatures?
Dr. Spencer,
the data you show above
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068
2009 2 0.247 0.564 -0.071 -0.045
2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159
2009 4 0.162 0.316 0.008 0.012
2009 5 0.140 0.161 0.119 -0.059
2009 6 0.043 -0.017 0.103 0.110
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.552 0.321 0.475
seems to indicate that the temps have increased by better than 0.4 degC.
is there any indication what part of that is discontinuity introduced by change MSU to AMSU?
are there any other factors that contribute to this discontinuity?
Joe Bastardi was right.
It’s going to get chilly.
I’ll be able to relive my youth in the early ’70s: no marketable job skills, poverty, cool wet weather…
Almost at the same level than 1998 El Niño? Give me a break! .
And I’ve posted the preliminary NINO3.4 and Global SST anomalies for June:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/06/preliminary-june-2010-sst-anomaly.html
According to this ‘out of box’ approach, the Arctic – Atlantic relationship has a ‘resolution’.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AMOFz.htm
I’d definitely say there’s a La Nina developing out there.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
California is much cooler compared to the past few years.
http://www.calclim.dri.edu/
It’s been a great year in the upper Midwest. A little warmer than normal with adequate precipitation. As a result the crops are looking like they will break all previous records. The corn is already chest high in many fields.
Tell me again why we should worry about a little added warmth.
Jack Simmons – I think those were the ones Bruce Springsteen referred to as “Glory Days.”
Steven:
1) sun warms ocean, then
2) ocean warms atmosphere
Actually, you would not see a time lag between ocean and tropospheric temperatures if this process was at a constant rate at all times. But there are episodic variations in the process, driven mostly by tropical intraseasonal oscillations. The oceans get unusually warm, then the troposphere starts overturning a little faster, evaporating more water from the ocean and dumping the extra latent heat in the troposphere.
Richard M says:
July 2, 2010 at 9:13 am
All of this prosperity in the corn belt will lead to a sense of well being, soon transformed into confidence about the future, ending up with smug self satisfaction as your life will be obviously better than all the soon-to-be unemployeed climatologists.
So we’re all worried for you.
I can vouch for that where I live. It has been a cool year. Summer was very late and we had rain until nearly Memorial Day. The weekend before Memorial Day saw snow at my friend’s house in Mendocino County and we were concerned that we might see snow over the holiday weekend.
We had 15 days of below normal temperatures in June and only 2 days with temperatures in the 90’s. That isn’t so unusual to have only a few 90 degree days in June, though. July will tell the story.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/histGraphAll?day=2&year=2009&month=6&ID=KSJC&type=1&width=500
There are two figures which interest me at the moment:
1. Will the first decade of the third millennium be a cooling or warming trend?
2. When will the number of google stories for “global warming” fall below the number of google stories for “peak oil”?
I suppose I could add the publication of Sir Muir Russel’s whitewash on climategate (I always enjoy a laugh) and the “reorganisation” that is going to happen around the CRU – which will have nothing at all to do with climategate … and swineflu.
Enneagram
The 1998 El Nino was teh greatest measured. Evah! It appears to correlate with a 0.2 degree step change that has persisted for at least 10 years. Atmospheric CO2 didn’t make any dramatic increase in concentration at the time (it’s about as linear and predictable as sea level rise) so the only reasonable explanation to me is that the aftershocks from such a huge sudden SST event are still dissippating. The oceans rule the climate and never forget that the atmosphere and surface waters of the ocean are a thin layer (atmosphere 0.1%, ocean surface waters 9.9%) atop what’s essentially a bucket of ice-water (the remaining 90% of the ocean). If the amount of mixing between deep and shallow ocean water changes significantly so does the weather evidently all across the globe. The AMDO, PDO, and ENSO basically run the show as far as I can see and no one has the first clue how to predict the timing or intensity of them other than some very rough periodicity taken from a rather brief span of recorded history.
crosspatch says: July 2, 2010 at 10:15 am
California is much cooler compared to the past few years.
I can vouch for that where I live.
The cold Siberian air ‘jet stream’ may be moving further south over California. If so according to some of my forthcoming graphs, bad news is, Siberia is going to get colder for foreseeable future.
Unfortunately mammoths are extinct, so no chance of them raising Siberian temperature, good news though is, Siberian permafrost is not going to melt and ‘methane catastrophe’ will be avoided.
The mission bells told me, that you shouldn’t stay,
go South of the border, down Mexico way.
Shouldn’t this El Nino be 0.36c warmer than 1998’s if we were seeing a 3c/century warming from CO2?
Well, I’m sure this will disappoint many of our alarmist friends, maybe we’ll quit seeing the words “hottest year ever” so often, but I doubt it.
Dr. Spencer, thanks for this update!
It’s been getting hot here in Germany since monday and i’ve changed my position to an AGW believer. I’ll change to skeptic again when it gets cold.
Only kidding. I’m happy that we don’t beat 1998; for me it’s a clear falsification of the AGW believe – that rising CO2 levels lead to rising temperatures and that there is no negative feedback strong enough to stop the rise. If that were true, we would have to see temperature records all the time.
Oh, i see Pingo noticed the same thing.
Mike Haseler says:
July 2, 2010 at 10:34 am
“[…]
2. When will the number of google stories for “global warming” fall below the number of google stories for “peak oil”?
”
Peak oil will be a non-event. Here in Germany, LPG and natural gas are excempt from car fuel tax (the German government wants to stop global warming and thinks it helps to switch cars to fossil fuels with a lesser content of carbon, so they drop this whopping tax for LPG and natural gas – it’s 70 eurocent per liter of gasoline) so we already have a lot of LPG-driven cars and trucks. As oil gets more expensive and gas stays cheap or gets cheaper (think shale gas), more and more cars around the globe will be switched over. This will reduce the demand for oil worldwide in accordance with dropping supplies, stretching the “no-oil horizon” indefinitely into the future.
Its cooling down because we are paying our ETS.New Zealands saving the world.(just day dreaming)
Interesting to see what new excuses and stories will be presented to the public in view of the sobering temperature reality , which may make cap and trade superflous . The clock is ticking against mr obamas communist dreams , based upon a utopian view on society , where mrs pelosi claims that the economy will be revived by more doing nothing ……. Only sacrifice and giving the utmost may bring our society forward and it is devils dream that you are able to bring society forward on a golf course .
OT but I must share this with someone or I’ll burst! UK wind turbines are currently producing 2.8 % of consumption – the highest rate that I have seen – whilst the importation from the French Interconnector has been reduced to 1.6% !
If only we knew what the French charge us for their lovely nuclear power and exactly what each unit produced by wind costs, we could tell if it would be worthwhile to build the further 7,600 windturbines (3x the current stock) that are going to produce…..er…um…. – 20% of our 2020 electricity requirements.
Don’t you just love career politicians ripping 10% off all your energy bills! The Renewables Obligation is the new expenses scandal, a honeypot in preparation for retiring MPs joining the grateful Boards of Energy companies and other firms feasting off this secretive, rarely remarked, imposition.
Re: california cooler average temp – see Chiefio – all that warming bias and its still cooler!!
Dirk H – don’t count too much on shale gas. The word on polluted ground water is beginning to come out (See the new documentary Gasland). When people have to choose between gas and water, my guess is that they will choose water. I am a true believer in technology to solve problems, but I din’t think technology will solve this one. Murray