Mann’s 1.8 million Malaria grant – “where do we ask for a refund’?

Thomas Fuller of the San Francisco Examiner has a great piece which summarizes the issue of climate and malaria and Mann. Like with the imagined increase in hurricane frequency due to global warming, so it goes with malaria. There’s no correlation. The premise is false.

On Monday, May 17th, I had the privilege of sitting on a panel at the Heartland Institute Chicago ICCC4 conference with regular WUWT contributor Dr. Indur Goklany. He gave his views on the declining mortality we’ve seen worldwide and has published several pieces here on WUWT. He also the author of the book: “ The Improving State of the World”. “Goks” (as his friends call him) gave a PowerPoint presentation on declining mortality in a warming world and you can view the PPT File here.

I’ve culled one of the slides he presented below. If this doesn’t offer proof that when it comes to mankind that “warmer is better”, I don’t know what would. Note the reversal in the southern hemisphere with Australia and New Zealand.

click for a larger image

But the most interesting slide is number 10, showing the drop in Malaria worldwide:

click for a larger image

Thomas Fuller covers the Mann-Malaria issue below:

Correspondent Barry Woods has done all the heavy lifting on this story, so if you like it, kudos to him–any errors of course are my responsibility.

In the Guardian today there is an article following on about the story of malaria and climate change. I like the quote from Peter Gething of Oxford: “If we were to go back to the 1900s with the correct climate change predictions for the 20th century, modellers would predict expansion and worsening of malaria and they would have been wrong, and we believe they are wrong now.” That’s because despite global warming for the past 30 years, the geographic extent of malaria has lessened, leading logical thinkers to guess that climate change has not worsened the spread of malaria.

Gething was referring to his study published yesterday in Nature that found that bednets and drugs will influence the spread of malaria far more than will climate change, challenging fears that warming will aggravate the disease in Africa.

Many researchers have predicted that rising temperatures will cause malaria to expand its range and intensify in its current strongholds. But unlike usual models, which aim to predict how climate change will affect malaria in the future, researchers looked at how warming affected the disease throughout the last century.

They used a recent epidemiological map of the global distribution of the major malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, and compared this with historical data on malaria’s prevalence in the 1900s.

The researchers — whose work was published in Nature yesterday (20 May) — found that despite global warming, the prevalence of malaria decreased, which they attribute to disease and mosquito control programmes.

Or so you would think. But Matthew Thomas thinks differently. Matthew Thomas said that the study “plays down the potential importance of climate [change]“.

Who is Matthew Thomas? He is a researcher at… Penn State. Matthew Thomas is a researcher… at Penn State… who has just won a $1.8 million grant to study the influence of environmental temperature on transmission of vector-borne diseases. Think he has a dog in this hunt?

Ask his co-investigator on the project. Michael Mann…

Where do we ask for a refund?

Read the rest here and tell Tom I sent you. Bookmark his page.

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175 thoughts on “Mann’s 1.8 million Malaria grant – “where do we ask for a refund’?

  1. Why does it cost $1.8 million when you can use a bit of logic for half an hour for no cost?

  2. The fact that Mann is involved in investigating the impact of warming on malaria just goes to show that he is not a scientist, but an advocate. He not only has no expertise in this area, but anyone who thinks that malaria will be spread by warming has to be ignorant of several important facts, or deliberately hiding them.

    You know, malaria was endemic all the way up to the Canadian border in the US during the Little Ice Age. These days you have to cross the Rio Grande to find a lot of case of malaria. Did the Earth cool? No, America got rich. And when (if?) the developing world does so, BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS, they will eradicate malaria too.

    In fact, malaria plagued Siberia up until the ’50s.

  3. In last 2-3 days I listen to most of the presentations at the ICCC.
    Number of speakers compared the global temperature rise 1910-1940 and 1970-2000 periods. I think such comparison is (imho) are wrong, at least for the CET.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET5.htm

    The graph shows deference between the summer and winter temperatures (11 year moving average) normalised at +11.5 degrees C. It shows that the 1900-1940 period is (very) odd one out.
    I would be grateful if any of the experts, from the conference or otherwise, wish to comment.

  4. Australia tends to be hotter than New Zealand. It’s interesting that mortality in NZ is higher than Australia in July (i.e. winter) while mortality in Australia is higher in February, when it’s a bit too hot.

  5. Thank you, Anthony Watts, for a wonderful piece of work. In this area of study, the relationship between temperature and malaria, there are empirical hypotheses that have enjoyed a considerable degree of confirmation. In other words, this is real science. By contrast, the climategaters have no empirical hypotheses regarding their mythical “forcings” and are blowing hot air. Of course, once Mann and his students take up the study of malaria, you can rest assured that he will find a “Malaria Hockey Stick.” He will. He is incorrigible. Just wait.

  6. vukcevic-Interesting that you should mention the different summer/winter warming behavior during that period versus others. It was different in the US too:

    http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/17/c017p045.pdf

    For some reason, the early twentieth century warming experienced a generally more extreme climate, at least in terms of temperature. In the US we also had the Dust Bowl droughts at the end of that period. Recent warming has been more benign (AGW?).

  7. timetochoseagain:
    A point of clarification: According to Fischer’s excellent recent biography of the 17th Century French explorer, Champlain suffered from malaria as did many of the early French settlers. This suggests that malaria was prevalent north of the Canadian border.

  8. In the original article Thomas gives his reasons for his concerns. It is fair to ask if the quest for grant money plays a role in his motivation. But, simply chopping out the justifications he gave is not fair – it is propaganda. Challenge his reasoning and his motives if you want. But don’t ignore the former.

    —-

    http://www.scidev.net/en/news/new-twist-in-debate-on-climate-change-and-malaria.html

    But Matthew Thomas, researcher at Pennsylvania State University, United States, said that the study “plays down the potential importance of climate [change]“.

    “It is very easy to come up with a superficial model,” he said, adding that this controversial area requires better science and more investigation of basic biology before reaching any firm conclusions about climate effects on malaria.

    He pointed out that the Nature study predicts a background expansion and intensification of malaria, which needs to be taken into account when designing approaches to the disease.

    “Drug and insecticide resistance could make future interventions less effective,” he added, and so even small effects of climate have to be seen in that context.

    He said that the malaria map published in Nature shows that in some areas of Latin America, South and South-East Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, malaria will in fact increase with global warming.

    “If I was in a village where malaria went up, it would matter to me and I would want to know why it happened.

    “The other problem is that the influence of environmental factors on specific biological mechanisms involved in malaria transmission is still very poorly understood,” Thomas told SciDev.Net.

  9. Thank you Anthony and Goks. The truth will out. You both deserve to split Penn State’s $1.8 million for doing their work for them. Frankly, the grant should have gone to you guys in the first place.

    Warmer Is Better – Fight the Ice.

  10. Looking at the industrialized countries doesn’t tell you much since that’s not where the preponderance of malaria occurs. And starting in 2002, the developed world has funded a large anti-malarial program in the underdeveloped world. Yet, in spite of that massive increase in funding, incidences of malaria have been increasing.

    In short, malaria incidence is due to many factors. Climate is the major one since it is the best single explanatory factor for incidences of malaria. To not quantify the effect of climate on malaria and dengue would be an act ideological foolishness.

  11. @ Brad.

    Nice to know. Let’s back up in time and correct the critical errors in the chain of events that led to this situation.

  12. Mike / Greg Leisner et al.

    There is absolutely no evidence that climate has any major influence on malaria transmission (OK, that’s not quite true, malaria has never occurred in extreme arctic areas). Malaria is however NOT a tropical disease. This is well known to anyone familiar with malaria epidemology.

    I must say that this rather changes my view of Michael Mann. Up till now I have regarded him as misguided and arrogant, but not evil. However this kind of deliberate obfuscation and waste in connection with one of mankind’s most deadly diseases is close to criminal in my book.

  13. Reminds me of this excellent submission
    Memorandum by Professor Paul Reiter, Institut Pasteur; Paris
    Select Committee on Economic Affairs Written Evidence

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we21.htm

    SUMMARY

    41. The natural history of mosquito-borne diseases is complex, and the interplay of climate, ecology, mosquito biology, and many other factors defies simplistic analysis. The recent resurgence of many of these diseases is a major cause for concern, but it is facile to attribute this resurgence to climate change, or to use models based on temperature to "predict" future prevalence. In my opinion, the IPCC has done a disservice to society by relying on "experts" who have little or no knowledge of the subject, and allowing them to make authoritative pronouncements that are not based on sound science. In truth, the principal determinants of transmission of malaria and many other mosquito-borne diseases are politics, economics and human activities. A creative and organized application of resources is urgently required to control these diseases, regardless of future climate change.

    31 March 2005

  14. I have travelled a bit as a geologist, and have developed a personal loathing for the mosquito, despite the fact that my father flew one during the war. The worst, ie most aggressive and most numerous, I encountered were in the field (beaver lakes and woods) in Newfoundland. These would attack all day and all night, even through thick clothing, especially blue coloured. In the Far East, in India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, they are potentially dangerous but seemed less aggressive except in the evening and night. Singapore has somehow ethnically cleaned itself of all insect life altogether. In Africa, they are plain dangerous. In the UK I live near marshland in wooded terrain with a year round mosquito infestation. They are a bit sluggish below about 5degC but never absent, and definitely worse in high humidity. The area serously suffered from malaria in the middle ages, but we seem to be free of it at present. Not that we have any eradication programme, as far as I know, unless our magnificent environmental agency has it sorted.

  15. Greg Leisner says:
    May 22, 2010 at 2:13 pm

    Malaria is not spread by climate, as in a warm-weather dependant virus.
    Malaria is spread by mosquitos that carry it.
    You can get B-52’ed by mosquitoes in Alaska, and, in fact, during the Yukon and Klondike Gold Rush days, turn of the 19th century, malaria was common in the Arctic.
    Sorry, but you don’t understand just how many varieties of mosquito adapted to darn near every climate imaginable on Earth, that Nature had evolved.
    The study Mann has gotten 1.8M for is bogus, and money is being wasted for nothing.

  16. Tom – Paul Reiter said all that in Great Global Warming Swindle and was castigated by the warmists at the time.

  17. If DDT had not been banned worldwide as a result of Rachel Carson’s book there would be no malarial problem.

  18. Yellow Fever, the other “tropical disease”, killed 5,000 of Philadelphia’s 45,000 inhabitants in 1793 and caused 17,000 survivors to evacuate the City. http://pds.lib.harvard.edu/pds/view/7374219

    30% of Al Gore’s home state of Tennessee was infected by malaria in 1933. http://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/history/#

    Malaria was endemic throughout the US til 1950. The Center for Disease Control original mission was the eradication of malaria in the US (as well as US military installations) http://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/history/history_cdc.html

    The coldest temperatures ever recorded in the northern hemisphere were in Yukutia Russia: -76.2C in 1926 and -67.7C in 1933. At that time malaria infected 4% of the population. https://oa.doria.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/42319/thedecli.pdf?sequence=1

    So successful was DDT and the CDC’s malaria eradication effort that the dread of this disease was purged from our collective memories and DDT repackaged as man’s most evil chemical in less than two decades.

  19. People who say a warming world will spread malaria are simply ignorant. Or worse.

    Period.

    Where and when was the first clinical trial for quinine for the treatment of malaria? If you know the answers to those questions, you know what a bunch of #@$* liars these people are.

    Essex, England, near London. About 1670.

    http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol6no1/reiter.htm

  20. The Mann Scam rolls on.

    That he is allowed to stay on the Gravy Train is just an extension of the one of the greatest periods of scientific fraud in history.

    I am almost feeling sorry for this dufus thinking he can bluff his career back on track after what he has done. His series of quick & dirty promotions is bad enough – he knows he’s been “chosen”, but he has gone along with the scam.

    He better start learning to ask people if they’d like fries with that order because his academic career is a toilet just waiting to be flushed.

    This latest scam means he now has his two hands on the toilet handle.

    Flush Mikey, flush.

  21. Greg Leisner says:
    May 22, 2010 at 2:13 pm “In short, malaria incidence is due to many factors. Climate is the major one since it is the best single explanatory factor for incidences of malaria. To not quantify the effect of climate on malaria and dengue would be an act ideological foolishness.”

    This statement is irresponsible. We know how to stop malaria and blaming it on climate change prevents the attention required to achieve this end. DDT, draining of wetlands, screened homes and treatment of victims eradicated malaria in the developed world. There is no reason for malaria in any future warm or cold!

    Malaria is carried by the Anopholes mosquito which is found on every continent with the exception of Antartica and its range extends to the polar regions. http://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/map.html. All that is required to cause a new epidemic is a reinfected population. (infection rates are slower in the northern climes)

    Africa’s greatest challenge is the lack of a health care infrastructure and funding as well many NGOs that had an ideological bias against DDT. DDT is no longer a silver bullet- too much time has passed and DDT resistance developed in some areas but it is still required in areas that have developed resistance to pyrethrin spraying.

    The goal is to develop a vaccine and we may be close until then it is insecticides, bed nets and medicine

  22. Here’s my 2 cents worth.

    From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age
    “Until the second half of the 20th century, malaria was endemic and widespread in many temperate regions, with major epidemics as far north as the Arctic Circle. From 1564 to the 1730s—the coldest period of the Little Ice Age—malaria was an important cause of illness and death in several parts of England. Transmission began to decline only in the 19th century, when the present warming trend was well under way.”source

    “Endemic malaria was declining in western Europe from the 18th century onwards, but in the 19th century it was still common in the north and north-east of Europe.

    A total of 1,803 persons died of malaria in the western parts of Finland and in the south-western archipelago during the years 1751–1773″source

    “Malaria in Russia in the 20th century
    “In 1946-1948 there were 1500-2000 cases of malaria per 10,000 of the population in the territories of the former USSR, including the Moscow region. Following the introduction of DDT for malaria control in 1945 the number of cases in the USSR was markedly reduced. In 1960 the Ministry of Public Health of the USSR announced the start of a campaign to eradicate malaria from the country….

    Of the three species of malarial parasites recorded in Russia, Plasmodium vivax has always been and remains the most widely distributed. However, disease caused by the tropical Plasmodium falciparum was also present, with rare epidemics recorded in central and northern Russia and with serious foci in the Volga Region (Bruce-Chwatt & de Zulueta, 1980). source

    “In fact, the most catastrophic epidemic on record anywhere in the world occurred in the Soviet Union in the 1920s, with a peak incidence of 13 million cases per year, and 600,000 deaths. Transmission was high in many parts of Siberia, and there were 30,000 cases and 10,000 deaths due to falciparum infection (the most deadly malaria parasite) in Archangel, close to the Arctic circle.source

    See also this 1900 – 2002 Malaria Map

    It’s much worse than we thought!!! :o)

  23. Greg Leisner says at 2:13 pm: malaria incidence is due to many factors. Climate is the major one …

    Oh pish posh! Try the ban on DDT, Greg. And the reason malaria is not prevalent in industrialized countries anymore is because the mosquito vectors have been controlled. Malaria used to be prevalent in northern climes. Responsible adults solved that problem with public health programs, including draining the swamps and spraying insecticides. Better living through chemistry and engineering. You should be grateful for your benefactors.

  24. “Greg Leisner says:
    May 22, 2010 at 2:13 pm
    Looking at the industrialized countries doesn’t tell you much since that’s not where the preponderance of malaria occurs.”

    In the not too recent past – the first half of the 20th century – Italy and Germany still had Malaria.
    “In der etwa 100 km nordwestlich von Bremen gelegenen Stadt Emden wurden 1939 noch 225 Malariafälle verzeichnet.”
    In Emden in Northern Germany there were 225 cases of Malaria in 1939.
    Good description of the history of malaria in Europe (in German):

    http://www.die-forschenden-pharma-unternehmen.de/medizin/wissenswertes/falsch_malaria/

  25. I live in a country where malaria is like drinking water. IMHO it’s not always the mosquitos that are the problem but often people who have malaria and don’t seek medical treatment due to poverty or lack of education. If they harbour the parasite for long enough then the mosquitos are only too happy to bite and pass the parasite onto someone who doesn’t have it yet. There are course other factors which I accept (nets, sprays, removal of standing water etc.).

  26. Is 1.8 million too much for google schlaring? Does Mann leave his armchair and do on the ground research?

  27. DDT ban is the SOLE responsible agent for the spread of malaria in Southern Africa.
    It is something that should be screamed at the enviromentalist lobby every time they open their mouths. They have DIRECTLY caused the deaths of millions of people, it makes any putative damage by CAGW appear irrelevent.
    The DDT ban should be THE text book example of what NOT to do

  28. Well why do you want a refund when we spend $20,000.00 on a toilet seat when one is not even needed….LOL

  29. One of the largest outbreaks of malaria was in the Arctic circle in Siberia. Riddle me that Batman.

  30. Just for the record, I have in the past had a serious bout of malaria (1982) and my 6 year old daughter had celebral malaria when she was three and luckily lived.

  31. Greg Leisner says: May 22, 2010 at 2:13 pm
    In short, malaria incidence is due to many factors. Climate is the major one since it is the best single explanatory factor for incidences of malaria.

    As evidenced above, climate has zero effect.
    The largest single factor is the prevalence of puddles in an area. Stagnant water, isolated puddles too small to have hungry minnows are where the mosquitoes come from, and that’s where the malaria comes from. Empty food tins, abandoned tires, any trash that will hold water will end up nurturing the critters. Cleaning up the trash in your environment will have a huge effect on the mosquito population. Climate change won’t.

  32. Brad said on May 22, 2010 at 1:35 pm:

    Oil that has entered wetlands may never be able to be removed:

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iyCzi7JFE0-cRyBdBUMmDC6Zm9GgD9FS2VR00

    Removed by humans within a quick timeframe, that much is true. But nature will take care of it in time, and the area will recover. After all, nature copes very well with all the natural oil seeps.

    People just don’t like to admit there are things larger than them that they cannot control, that work over periods longer than human lifespans, even just longer than the shorter time when individuals think they are able to control the circumstances around them and expect quick rewards. This is what makes belief in Mann-made warming so appealing. “You, yes you, have the power to fix the entire planet! You can do it right now! Don’t delay!”

  33. Although Dr. Indur Goklany’s presentation is illuminating, it would be more so if each slide had an obvious text block that in effect subtly screams “The point of this slide is ….”

    Not having attended “Gok’s” presentation, only reading this post, I can discern the point of most but not all the slides, making it a risky proposition if I forward or link to it. Apologies for pointing out what is ‘obvious’ is not when viewed by other eyes.

    Otherwise, loved the slide showing the death rates vs month peaking during cold winter months. The 180-degree out-of-phase nature of the southern hemisphere death rate is “killer” (pun intended ;-)

  34. DirkH: Emden is almost tropical compared to Arkhangelsk, which had cases of malaria until 1930. But this paper argues that it was an “indoor disease” in the northernmost part of Europe.

  35. I didn’t notice who provided the $1,800,000 grant to Mann, but it is clearly a payoff, and a signal to the warmist crowd.

    If they had really wanted a report done on mosquitos and malaria vectors, they would have gone to an expert in mosquito biology or epidemiology rather than to geologist Michael Mann, and received a more accurate and up to date report for one tenth the amount.

    Instead, Mann will simply assign a post-doc slave to collate reports of mosquito and related experts; cut ‘n’ paste, re-write with due recognition, and turn in his mosquito paper with the obligatory blame placed on AGW, without ever putting on his hip boots and heading for mosquito country. This is the kind of bribe that corrupts climate science.

    As Al Gore’s Holy Hologram says:

    “Why does it cost $1.8 million when you can use a bit of logic for half an hour for no cost?”

  36. Greg Leisner says:
    May 22, 2010 at 2:13 pm “In short, malaria incidence is due to many factors. Climate is the major one since it is the best single explanatory factor for incidences of malaria. To not quantify the effect of climate on malaria and dengue would be an act ideological foolishness.”

    It sound like “we can’t think of anything else so it must be co2.”
    You are spouting off without evidence. Where is the evidence, sources, references? I have shown you the worst recorded outbreak of malaria was near the Arctic Circle, what can you show me?

  37. Greg: correction on my part, I meant to repeat:

    “Transmission was high in many parts of Siberia, and there were 30,000 cases and 10,000 deaths due to falciparum infection (the most deadly malaria parasite) in Archangel, close to the Arctic circle.”

  38. Thank you, Anthony, for posting this. However, I have to apologize to you, your (and my) readers and audience. My slide presentation on the Heartland website does not match what I used at the talk itself. Also, I had some errors in the slide show that I must correct.

    First, I mislabeled the malaria figure up above. The caption should say: “Top: left, mid-19th century; right, 1945. Bottom: left, 1977; right, 2007.” Second, due to transcription errors, I had understated the potential deaths and disease estimates from biofuel production by quite a lot. ["It's worse than I said."] The corrected slides are available at my website here.

    With respect to malaria, I should note that there is a great set of illustrations in the original Nature paper by Gething et al. that set all this off. They are a lot easier on the eyes and have far greater resolution than my malaria slide. Gething et al. also touch on issues raised by Greg Leisner (at May 22, 2010 at 2:13 pm) and Mike (May 22, 2010 at 2:04 pm).

    According to Gething et al., endemic/stable malaria is likely to have covered 58% of the world’s land surface around 1900 but only 30% by 2007. P. falciparum malaria, the deadliest of the 4 types of malaria, is today (2007) restricted largely to the tropics. Equally important, within its currently reduced range, its prevalence has decreased, with endemicity falling by one or more classes in over two-thirds of the current range of stable transmission.

    They also note that:

    “of the 66 million km2 of the Earth’s surface thought to have sustained stable/endemic malaria in 1900, 12%, 18% and 57% had exhibited proportional decreases in the reproductive number of up to one, between one and two, and greater than two orders of magnitude, respectively; 11% had shown no evidence of change; and 2% had shown evidence of an increase in the reproductive number by 2007.”
    … “[D]espite warming global temperatures, the combined natural and anthropogenic forces acting on the disease throughout the twentieth century have resulted in the great majority of locations undergoing a net reduction in transmission between one and three orders of magnitude larger than the maximum future increases proposed
    under temperature-based climate change scenarios.”

    This is consistent with what’s in my book, The Precautionary Principle, in which I note that in the early 1940s, malaria used to kill over 3 million people annually. Today the global figure is about 1 million even though the population has almost tripled.

    For a long time (well over a decade) many (including myself) have been saying that while malaria might be sensitive to climate/weather, it is far more sensitive to poverty and economic development – which is why it’s called a disease of poverty! This is not rocket science. Even railway engineers and more pedestrian scientists should be able to get it.

  39. I don’t suppose I can get half of that … just a lousy $900,000 to study the effects of DDT on malaria incidence? I think there might be a connection between the two. I believe it is a hypothesis worth looking at…

  40. I’m confused why a warming world would lead to more malaria (more mosquitos). Where I live the cool wet weather seems to benefit their numbers and when its hot and dry – no mosquitos.

  41. vukcevic says:
    May 22, 2010 at 1:43 pm

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET5.htm

    The graph shows deference between the summer and winter temperatures (11 year moving average) normalised at +11.5 degrees C. It shows that the 1900-1940 period is (very) odd one out.>>

    Interesting. Could you do the graph again but just show the winter anomaly versus the summer anamoly? that they diverge in that specific time period is interesting for a couple of reasons but I wonder if the divergence is driven more by one than the other?

  42. Maybe the AG’s shouldn’t go after hobnobs and pseudo scientist like Mann et al but instead hunt down the complete derange people who keep signing over the public funds to ‘em.

  43. Brad said on May 22, 2010 at 3:19 pm:

    Greenland rising from the ocean:

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100518170218.htm

    (…)

    Curious. I’ve seen info before where it’s speculated that under the ice “Greenland” might be three or so smaller islands, the ice layer just makes it look like one land mass. Also, when considering how the 2007 massive loss of Arctic ice was partially due to ice arches failing to form in the Nares strait and hold the ice in the Arctic ocean, and subsequently I noticed there’s a continual hot spot on the temperature maps near there, there might be undersea volcanic activity contributing to these assorted effects in and around Greenland. And yes, geological activity can cause such “sudden” land rises.

    (…)
    Is this real? Global sea temp rise?

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100521192533.htm

    Even if true, it does mean the rise will continue, and it also means the heat sink of the ocean acts as a buffer to any warming.

    It means the article is alarmist-tainted crud, as seen in the misleading first paragraph:

    The upper layer of the world’s ocean has warmed since 1993, indicating a strong climate change signal, according to a new study. The energy stored is enough to power nearly 500 100-watt light bulbs per each of the roughly 6.7 billion people on the planet.

    Note how wonderfully it does not say “The increase in the energy stored…” yet it somehow gives that impression. Nor does it give a time for how long those bulbs would be lit. Theoretically you could gather enough energy from the electric service at your house during a day to power those lights for at least a picosecond.

    Besides, that’s old data. They analyzed measurements from 1993 to 2008. Dr. Spencer just reported “Global Average Sea Surface Temperatures Poised for a Plunge” and the ocean heat content looks to be going down. Thus the value in this heat content analysis is for historical purposes, the oceans are refusing to follow the (C)AGW proponents predictions.

    No wonder Mann is now researching malaria. The planet is refusing to comply to his whims. Maybe mosquitoes will prove easier for him to predict and control.

  44. Malaria is not so wide-spread as it was in the 19th Century? Despite increases in average global temperatures – whatever they may be – and nasty, nasty air pollution in the form of soot and carbon dioxide? How did that happen? Three letters: D D T. Period. End of story. Why is malaria still extent where it is today? The ban – official or unofficial, formal or unformal, it was banned – on use of DDT in those parts of the world, backed up by a withholding of aid funds of one sort or another. Want to see malaria disappear? Get rid of the bans on the use of DDT and start selling it around the world, with the same proper old-fashioned instructions and warnings from 50 years ago. Guess what? No malaria. Easy, simple, direct. Even cheap.

  45. jaymam says:
    May 22, 2010 at 1:49 pm

    Australia tends to be hotter than New Zealand. It’s interesting that mortality in NZ is higher than Australia in July (i.e. winter) while mortality in Australia is higher in February, when it’s a bit too hot.

    Not significantly in either case.

  46. Man…I was just calming down for the weekend when I read this. In this I feel confident – I know MUCH more about malaria (and other infectious diseases) than Michael Mann will ever learn in his lifetime. DDT has proven to be the single most effective intervention for the control of malaria. Bed netting, repellants and antimalarial drugs are far less effective by comparison. Bed netting is only effective when you’re in bed. Agents like DEET repel mosquitoes but do so by masking the CO2 signature mosquitoes are attracted to. I grew up in Michigan. Believe me, if there is one square inch of exposed skin not covered by a recent application of DEET a mosquito (the size of a cat) will find it. Drugs are quite marginal in effectiveness. Plasmodia are eukaryotic organisms (i.e. they look like us to drugs). Hence it is hard to find a drug that it hard on them and not also hard on us. Killing bacteria is child’s play by comparison. They also have this damnable ability to mutate into drug resistant forms. Don’t misunderstand – I’m a “bugs and drugs” guy by profession and the drugs have been a godsend. But on a wide scale DDT does more for more people for a lot less (and with fewer side effects).

    OK…anyone with a 6th grade, Jethro Bodine education should know that temperature has little to do with mosquitoes (although apparently altitude does). Walk around in the woods up in Minnesota at dusk in the summer and see if you don’t come back a pint low. Other commenters have pointed this out. Almost the entire USA and southern Canada, southern Europe, Russia, Asia and South America was malarious 100 years ago. We still have mosquitoes in the US, why don’t we have malaria? Because we broke the chain. We still have mosquitoes but they’re not infected with Plasmodia. It’s interesting, once iradicated, malaria tends to stay iradicated.

    Given enough DDT, chloroquin, bed nets and political will we could make malaria disappear much like we did small pox. Climate and the Earth’s temperature have nothing to do with it.

  47. $1.8 million is a small price to pay for saving the world. I too could put this sum toward its intended purpose in the same way I expect Mr. Mann and his colleagues to do. After all, the answer is already known – all I have to do is find the magic computer code to prove it.

    Not sure yet how I will lose the code though.

  48. “Espen says:
    May 22, 2010 at 4:12 pm
    DirkH: Emden is almost tropical compared to Arkhangelsk, which had cases of malaria until 1930. But this paper argues that it was an “indoor disease” in the northernmost part of Europe.”

    Emden is not the northernmost part of Europe so the paper – which talks about Sweden and Finland – doesn’t apply. The link i gave mentions that Schiller caught malaria while traveling through swampland in the proximity of Mannheim in the 18. century, for instance. The old german word for Malaria is “Sumpffieber” – swamp fever; might have to do with the fact that there’s a lot of mosquitos in swamps.

    Funnily Jimbo Wales’ encyclopedia says about “Sumpffieber”:
    “Sumpffieber ist:

    eine Tropenkrankheit, siehe Malaria ”

    translation: “swamp fever is a tropical disease, see Malaria”. Well, you can’t always be right…

  49. Brad’s Science Daily link opens with:

    “The upper layer of the world’s ocean has warmed since 1993, indicating a strong climate change signal…”

    But today’s official ARGO site shows that sea surface temperatures are flat to declining. It’s not the greatest chart, but it makes me wonder: were these researchers wrong over the past decade? Or are they wrong now?

    SST’s are in large part a function of la nina/el nino, and generally fluctuate accordingly. But the deep ocean has much greater heat capacity, and I believe the ARGO buoys still show the deep ocean is losing heat [the ARGO site is very frustrating to navigate. They seem to be making it intentionally difficult to find the information you're looking for].

    The authors are clearly trolling for grants based on climate alarmism. One more example of how climate science is being corrupted by easy grant money.

  50. Mike McMillan says:
    May 22, 2010 at 4:07 pm

    ¨….. Empty food tins, abandoned tires, any trash that will hold water will end up nurturing the critters.
    Cleaning up the trash in your environment will have a huge effect on the mosquito population.
    Climate change won’t.¨
    Please copy this to each person you know who plans a trip to Costa Rica: mosquitos are a big problem here. San Jose, at 1000 meters, might be a good place to test perceptions re altitude and mosquito populations.

  51. Excerpted from: Smokey on May 22, 2010 at 5:53 pm

    …[the ARGO site is very frustrating to navigate. They seem to be making it intentionally difficult to find the information you're looking for].

    Which is of course completely unrelated to the Argo data tending to show a general cooling of the oceans, depending on who does the analyses and how they do them, as opposed to an Unequivocal Continuous Warming that matches the CO2 rise. Indeed, it is robustly unrelated.

  52. To ease Dr. Mann’s busy workload, I make the following suggestions:

    Develop a new robusted statistical technique.
    Declare GW will lead to runaway malaria outbreaks.
    Declare man to be the source of GW.
    Present your beliefs in the form of a hockey stick.
    Write a report that says it’s “worse than we thought.”
    Pocket the money.
    Request additional money.

  53. Dr. Dave says:
    May 22, 2010 at 5:25 pm
    Man…I was just calming down for the weekend when I read this. In this I feel confident – I know MUCH more about malaria (and other infectious diseases) than Michael Mann will ever learn in his lifetime.

    I’m sure you do but that’s hardly the point is it? The question is do you know more about malaria than Matthew Thomas, professor in the Department of Entomology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Penn State University, who is the Principle Investigator of the project. Prof. Thomas wants to “quantify how environmental temperature influences the transmission of vector-borne diseases, and how this in turn determines disease risk, both now and under future climate-change scenarios”. It’s smart when you write a proposal of that sort to include a member of the faculty who has some complementary expertise. In this case that happens to be Mike Mann but don’t think for one minute that is Mann’s 1.8 million malaria grant, it’s Thomas’s (it suits those who dislike Mann to think so though). Most of the money will go on grad students and post-docs.

  54. You guys are all wrong, you are letting historical facts and common sense get in the way of “good science”.

    AGW is unprecedented, therefore the medieval ice age did not exist, nor did the little ice age. Any evidence for is just conspiracy talk and bad science.

    And here you go again, letting your facts dictate to us scientists what we know to be true and this discussion is over because we know all. AGW causes everything, geez, everyone knows that, and anything bad that happens is because of humans. There is no outside influence on the environment other then us, so please take your “conspiracy” beliefs on malaria and keep them to yourselves. You are misleading the public and should be jailed for war crimes. It is high treason to doubt the great and powerful “Mann”. Malaria was caused in Russia because of local weather patterns that turned it into a tropical jungle for 20 years, everyone knows that…Geez.

  55. This whole thing is so corrupt. Mann gets his hands on almost $2 million.

    If this was anyone or anything else, these same people would be screaming their heads off.

  56. OT
    I’ve been saying this for years, now I finally have some serious backup.
    It’s the Sun, Stupid
    “Four years ago, when I first started profiling scientists who were global warming skeptics, I soon learned two things: Solar scientists were overwhelmingly skeptical that humans caused climate change and, overwhelmingly, they were reluctant to go public with their views. Often, they refused to be quoted at all, saying they feared for their funding, or they feared other recriminations from climate scientists in the doomsayer camp. When the skeptics agreed to be quoted at all, they often hedged their statements, to give themselves wiggle room if accused of being a global warming denier. Scant few were outspoken about their skepticism.

    No longer.

    Scientists, and especially solar scientists, are becoming assertive. Maybe their newfound confidence stems from the Climategate emails, which cast doomsayer-scientists as frauds and diminished their standing within academia. Maybe their confidence stems from the avalanche of errors recently found in the reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, destroying its reputation as a gold standard in climate science. Maybe the solar scientists are becoming assertive because the public no longer buys the doomsayer thesis, as seen in public opinion polls throughout the developed world. Whatever it was, solar scientists are increasingly conveying a clear message on the chief cause of climate change: It’s the Sun, Stupid.

    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/05/21/its-the-sun-stupid/

  57. It is my impression that Dr. Mann is key to this study not because of his subject expertise but his other qualities:
    1 he has skill in formatting information to persuade a broad audience
    2 he knows the ropes and has the connections to draw government funding
    3 he has name recognition and will guarentee media coverage of the results
    4 his study results will be assured to show a causal relationship
    5 government will get what it is paying for

  58. Wait a sec…
    I think we should support this study.
    The more I think about it, the more I am all for it.

    Global warming = increased malaria epidemics.

    Of course we don’t know for sure… the facts are uncertain. But then too, billions could die if epidemics became wide spread, so the stakes are high. It may be too late for CO2 mitigation, there may be enough warming in place already to trigger the epidemic at any point, so we need to act fast it is urgent.

    Facts uncertain, stakes high, matters urgent, clearly we need to DDT the whole planet starting tomorrow afternoon and kill every mosquito in existance. Yes there will be harm caused by DDT through disposal of spray cans if nothing else, but were talking billions of lives here!

    Seriously, this might work. I live in a mosquito dense city that went goofy for a while and refused to spray for them out of concern for the environment. I’m not talking cat size mosquitos like Dr Dave (excellent post BTW, very informative) complains about in Michigan. I’m talking the little ones drag dead deer off the highway and hide them in the bush for fear that the big mosquitos will take it away from them. A few dead crows and a few confirmed cases of West Nile virus…

    Ahh… the sweet sound of the malethion truck coming down my street.

    Wish I’d kept some of those crows. Coulda stuck ‘em in the freezer and hauled them out again “when needed”

  59. Indur M. Goklany says:
    May 22, 2010 at 4:32 pm
    Thank you, Anthony, for posting this. However, I have to apologize to you, your (and my) readers and audience. My slide presentation on the Heartland website does not match what I used at the talk itself. Also, I had some errors in the slide show that I must correct.

    First, I mislabeled the malaria figure up above. The caption should say: “Top: left, mid-19th century; right, 1945. Bottom: left, 1977; right, 2007.” Second, due to transcription errors………………..
    =================
    Everybody SLOW DOWN, if you catch one mistake, assume you missed 3 others.
    Catching a mistake reminds you that you are an idiot, missing a mistake ………

  60. Thanks for this information, Anthony! Infectious disease and public health are my bailiwick.

    I’ve heard this malaria story over & over for years, not to mention increased plague (proliferation of rodent hosts of the pathogen Y. pestis), yellow fever etc., etc.

    The primary weapon to fight this stuff is wealth, pure & simple. If money is unnecessarily diverted from valid public health causes to this will o’ the wisp, just-around-the-corner, “just wait, any day now” climate change nonsense, the effects on humanity and public health will be far worse because, no matter how much cash is thrown at the problem, climate shall change one way or the other.

    One thing that the AGW crowd absolutely REFUSE to acknowledge is that agriculture will most likely boom with higher carbon dioxide levels. Even my colleagues at the University of Illinois admit that (albeit quietly, and only to one another….IL will do rather well in a warmer, higher CO2 environment).

    The more nonsense these folks spout, the more ridiculous and desperate they appear. I used to be more sympathetic to their arguments, but I’ve since been turned against. Time for some real science to be brought to bear, WUWT has been a great starting point!

  61. Phil:

    For 0.00 dollars and a few hours of exposure and discussion, we have established that there is zero relationship between malaria and temperature, between mosquitos and temperture, and between global average temperature changes of 2 degrees and malaria and mosquitos.

    Sending this money to ANY department at Penn State is a waste – and exposes the “follow the money” trend for some/much/most/all of the AGW-driven academically self-satisfying hype.

    Read their words: Is there any doubt that they “know” what their conclusion will be?

    In this one waste of money, can I not accuse the Etymology Dept of Penn State of murdering tens of thousands of innocent Africans by not buying them DDT directly? They (the department) already KNOW how to stop DDT. This “study” will not add anything to their existing state of knowledge, but worse, as propaganda that promotes the deadly agenda of the AGW extremists, harm even more millions by denying them the energy and clean water (concrete, roads, sewers, and water treatment plants all require energy and resources DENIED Africa by the AGW agenda!)

  62. Dave: I would claim instead that the increased CO2 will serve to distract the mosquito, thus lowering their ability to track down and bite people ….. Right?

    After all, raising sub-Saharan Africa’s temperature by 2 degrees will clearly increase the number of mosquitos in Africa.

  63. Are we progressing to a point in the list of The World’s Greatest Scams where Piltdown Man will be joined by Meltdown Mann?

  64. Brad says:
    May 22, 2010 at 3:19 pm
    Greenland rising from the ocean:

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100518170218.htm

    I just sent the following note to Climate Sceptics with a copy to Quirks and quarks:
    “On today’s CBC Radio science show, Quirks and Quarks, there was an
    interview with an expert on land elevations. (I could check up for a better
    description of his specialty, as well as his name and his institution, but
    as I will soon show, I don’t think he is worth the bother.) [It was Dixon.] He stated that the annual loss of ice from Greenland is 30 “jigatonnes”, which I presume to
    be 30 gigatonnes, or 30 x 10^9 tonnes. Surely a horrendous mass, and enough
    to explain the not-only-rising-but-accelerating change of elevation of
    Greenland (which part not defined).
    “I performed a little elementary math. According to Wikipedia, the area
    of the Greenland ice sheet is 1.71 x 10^6 sq km. Dividing the first by the
    second and converting units tells us that the change is equivalent to 17
    kg/sq m. Who knew that the elevation of land is so sensitive to such a small
    change of pressure??!! It makes you think twice about even walking around on
    the earth. Who knows what damage we are doing every day!!”

    IanM

  65. I have traveled and explored the Amazon jungle, starting from 1970 until 1996. In my first expeditions in Brazil we usally encountered smal boats called “regatao” working for the malaria control program. They were spraying DDT inside the houses and spreading kerosene and gasoil on ponds after the annual flood began to recede. We seldom saw people infested with malaria, nor did we get the parasite in spite of many mosquito bites we got during days and nights during months.

    By 1971 the link between humans and non infected mosquitoes was broken because most people had been treated with cloroquinines, amodiaquinine and other prasite killing drugs. But after DDT’s ban in 1972 the Brazilian government stopped using it and infected mosquitoes coming from remote areas, where the DDT control program didn’t reach, established again the link infesting thousands and thousands humans. By the 1980s the capital city of Rondonia state was named “the malaria capital of the world”l. Brazil and almost the rest of South America fell back to their prior infestation levels.

    If you watch closely in WHO’s South America map above, you will see a tiny white area were the republic of Ecuador is: they never accepted or enforced the DDT ban and has remained the ONLY tropical country free of malaria, with no environmental or humane damage whatsoever. There is not a slight doubt -among those who are honest experts in the issue- that DDT is the only clue to fighting malaria, and that was acknowledged by the WHO in September 16th, 2006 when recommended all its agencies to employ DDT in their indoor spraying programs. That decision made the greens see red and counterattacked with rage.

    Bednets may prove somewhat useful, but people cannot carry a bednet around them the whole day. Mosquito repelents as 80% concentrated DEET and indoor DDT spraying IS the ONLY secure solution to the problem. And as the Plasmodium falciparun has become resistant to quinines, the other only proved therapy is the use of artemisinin, the compound obtained from Artemisia annua plant that has proved not to develop resistance by the parasite.

    But Big Pharma insists that artemisinin must be used in a two drug pill -the other drug provided by them, of course- making the price of the therapy go tenfold higher than the simple 1 cent artemisinin tea taken two or three times a day. And for people who survive on $1 a day, it is the only way to go. You can grow Artemisia annua in your own garden. So WHO is now recommending the two-drug pill, because Big Pharma contributes with 75% of WHO’s budget, and who pays for keeping WHO alive has the right to ask something in return: as simple as to recommend their pills.

  66. Don’t worry, Brad; it’s an AP article. There’s very little chance that it will turn out to be true.

    Besides, the oil is all natural. Hippies should be all over it.

  67. Please be careful with claims of what DDT can do. I am in absolute agreement with the premise that malaria warming correlation is for the most part BS ( heat impacts infection rates – allowing malaria to overwinter in the mosquito population rather than simply in infected individuals-but warmth does not control the geographical presence of malaria).

    Much harm was done by the ideological reaction against DDT use to the malaria eradication efforts (aid was often restricted to non DDT initiatives ) in the 3rd world and harm continues to be done. However the widespread use of DDT on cotton and other crops before the malaria eradication effort was completed in the 3rd world allowed many Anopholes mosquito populations to develop DDT resistance. DDT can no longer be expected to do what it once did. (and DDT while critical was not the only element in the West’s eradication effort)Despite this fact that there are still areas where DDT is essential -especially tin regions where pyrethrin insecticide resistance has developed .
    I plead with all who read this site – do not prolong the scourge of malaria by overstating what DDT is now able to do. DDT is a vital tool-it is critical in some areas-but it is no longer a silver bullet worldwide- that time has passed. Malaria kills nearly a million people a year- mostly children under the age of 5. These children are not statistics they had names and they were loved by the families that lost them. The right, the left, AGWers, skeptics have no right to use these children as ideological fodder.
    The eradication of malaria is complicated by counterfeit drugs, lack of knowledge, false claims (my plea is not to add to this), ideology, poverty, failed governments, lack of public health infrastructure and the International will to eradicate this disease. Do not add to this list!

    The ultimate eradication of malaria given our current conditions may rely on the hopes for a vaccine. (Getting close- hope hope)In the interim- insecticides will continue to be a critical component in controlling malaria in addition to treatment of infected individuals and pesticide treated bed nets.

    Malaria- like climate is complex- please do not simplify the hurdles to its eradication.

  68. Poor GW gets no respect. Back in February of 2008, he went to Africa to see how his programs to alleviate malaria and HIV/AIDS were working out. Rocker and “humanitarian” Bob Geldof went along as he has had a long history of charitable work in Africa.

    GW’s malaria project included bed nets treated with a DDT derivative. It included spraying the same insecticide on the walls inside and outside of the houses. Anopheles mosquitoes are night insects, so the bed nets and spraying the walls are effective.

    GW’s program reduced malaria infection rates by as much as 87% in Tanzania.

    http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/opinion/commentary/article/FAZALDIN125_20090123-210918/187284/

    GW was on the path to saving millions of lives. The most I’ve ever done is to give blood every couple of months. (I am a universal donor with blood suitable for infants. The blood bank calls me up just before I can give blood again.) Something, but not anywhere near as much as what GW did.

    And some people DO recognize it.

    http://wizbangpop.com/2008/02/19/bob-geldof-in-rwanda-gives-bush-his-props.php

    And then there is GW’s program for HIV/AIDS. The venue of this story is of particular interest because it is carried on a Gay web site:

    http://www.365gay.com/news/fighting-aids-in-africa-may-be-bushs-legacy/

    And another article on using DDT

    http://www.malaria.org/news122.html

    An American President is hailed a hero by Africans for doing more to fight HIV/AIDS and malaria in Africa than any other person. Ever. It would seem that this would be a “front page above the fold” news story for every media outlet in the country. Pride in our country and about saving lives and helping the poor. Indeed, throughout the entire world where his actions would give hope to the sick and needy.

    So, Bunky, why didn’t you know about this? (An unwarranted assumption, as my sample size is so small. However, nobody I have talked to does know about it.) Have you been living on another planet? Or perhaps the people that told you to believe in Al Gore just forgot to tell you. I wonder why they kept it a secret. Perhaps they think that you just don’t care about saving millions of people from slow, horrible deaths. Do you? Care that is?

    In puzzlement,

    Steamboat Jack
    (Jon Jewett’s evil twin)

  69. Phil. says:
    May 22, 2010 at 6:39 pm “In this case that happens to be Mike Mann but don’t think for one minute that is Mann’s 1.8 million malaria grant, it’s Thomas’s (it suits those who dislike Mann to think so though). Most of the money will go on grad students and post-docs.”

    Phil- there should be no malaria in a future world- warm or cold. PERIOD. If you care about getting rid of malaria- put your money in vaccine research, bed nets, insecticide spraying, treatment and public health infrastructure. Studying how many more malaria cases there may or may not be diverts the vital public attention from the eradication efforts. It is an admission of failure and there is no justifiable reason to fail. I find studies such as this one unethical and immoral at best. Malaria and the suffering it causes is being used to advance academic careers and an agenda.
    Perhaps a few pictures of the children who have died- or will suffer life long cognitive impairment as a result of this disease will show what this $1.8 million could have accomplished. I could give a damn about the needs of the post docs- let them work on a cure.

  70. Precinct 201 says:
    “Pride in our country and about saving lives and helping the poor. Indeed, throughout the entire world where his actions would give hope to the sick and needy.”

    You are absolutely correct- no country has contributed more to malaria control than the US. Early efforts were led by the Rockerfeller Foundation, later by the CDC and USAID. You are correct Bush re-focused efforts on malaria control in Africa and backed it up with tax payer dollars. (Bill Gates is also due some kudos). There is much more work to be done but the US has every reason to be proud of its efforts to date.

  71. There is an incisive critique of this thread over at The Idiot Tracker:

    http://theidiottracker.blogspot.com/2010/05/compulsive-liar-anthony-watts-continues.html

    “Compulsive liar Anthony Watts continues his crusade against real scientist Michael Mann
    Moronic science wannabes like Anthony Watts have long had a wild hair to tear down the accomplishments of Michael Mann, whose hockey stick research proved conclusively that the end of the 20th century was warmer than any time in the last millenium. Dr. Mann, one of the world’s foremost climatologists, has beaten back ludicrous attacks on his research and his integrity, with the support of the National Academy of Sciences and multiple independent reviews of his (unimpeachable) conduct.”

    What a joke. It seems like the Warmist’s are losing touch with reality, and becoming increasingly desperate.

  72. The Mann made malaria connection once again display how effective opportunistic buzz-words are in an academic context of prospecting. Surf the trends using politically correct lingo and your odds to trike gold improve tremendously.

  73. I had the honor to sit with Indur Goklany during our lunch with President Klaus in Washington DC in 2007, too.

    The grant is disgraceful but I’ve read that it’s been decided in 2009, before ClimateGate, so it may be less shocking than indicated by the bare news here.

    Does anyone know Oscar Whitman? Is he the legal husband of Michael Mann?

  74. Mike McMillan said on May 22, 2010 at 4:07 pm

    “The largest single factor is the prevalence of puddles in an area. Stagnant water, isolated puddles too small to have hungry minnows are where the mosquitoes come from, and that’s where the malaria comes from. Empty food tins, abandoned tires, any trash that will hold water will end up nurturing the critters. Cleaning up the trash in your environment will have a huge effect on the mosquito population. Climate change won’t.”

    I spent some time in Singapore during the 1970’s. Their regulations were draconian. Teams would enter properties, spray ponds with kerosene, fine householders for having discarded food tins with water in the bottom. Fogging teams would disperse DDT around the Kampongs. It worked.

  75. There was a sudden outbreak of malaria – they called it ‘intermittent fever’ – on the lower Columbia River that started about 1830 and then spread south to California, with devastating effects.

    It was obviously transported to both areas by humans and had nothing to do with climate. This malaria story has been a farce from day one.

  76. davidmhoffer says:
    May 22, 2010 at 8:29 pm

    I’ve just had my first look at the video – truly horrible.

    The oil is leaking out a broken ‘riser’. This was what connected the rig at surface to the borehole. The riser outside diameter is probably about 40 inches (1 metre). The internal diameter is typically 30 inches.

  77. jorgekafkazar says:
    May 22, 2010 at 2:54 pm
    Brad says: “Oil that has entered wetlands may never be able to be removed:

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iyCzi7JFE0-cRyBdBUMmDC6Zm9GgD9FS2VR00”

    Don’t worry, Brad; it’s an AP article. There’s very little chance that it will turn out to be true.

    —–

    Indeed. As I recall, about a week after Climategate broke, AP did a review of the emails which concluded: move along, nothing to see here.

  78. rbateman says:
    May 22, 2010 at 2:59 pm
    Greg Leisner says:
    May 22, 2010 at 2:13 pm

    Malaria is not spread by climate, as in a warm-weather dependant virus.
    Malaria is spread by mosquitos that carry it.

    ———–

    It can also be spread by infected humans who can rapidly travel long distances and then pass it on to the mosquitoes that bite them.

    See Ramenofsky, A.F. 1987. Vectors of Death: The Archaeology of European Contact, University of New Mexico Press.


  79. Greg Leisner had written:

    “In short, malaria incidence is due to many factors. Climate is the major one since it is the best single explanatory factor for incidences of malaria. To not quantify the effect of climate on malaria and dengue would be an act ideological foolishness.”

    There’s a but more to it than just climate, as another poster had observed, but it’s more, too, than whether or not Plasmodium falciparum malaria (the big killer of the four Plasmodium species commonly infecting humans, and the one most prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa) spreads, takes hold, and cannot be extirpated.

    There are patient factors affecting malarial virulence, including both the development and persistence of immunity to the parasites and histological factors such as the presence of sickle-cell trait and and alpha-thalassemia prevalent among the host population.

    Genetic hemoglobinopathies which are much more common in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere conduce to lower total mortality in P. falciparum infections (though the pathogen does, indeed, kill its millions every year), which increases the total number of immune patients in any such population and in turn increases the pool of hosts – estimated at 300 to 500 million worldwide – whose participation in the parasite’s reproductive cycle raises the possibility of mosquito-borne transmission to uninfected people.

    In the words of Mackinnon and Read, “Immunity Selects for Higher Virulence.”

    Incidentally, another population in which a genetic hemoglobinopathy is commonly observed – alpha-thalassemia – is that of southern Italy, il Mezzogiorno, where malaria was epidemic up until the 20th Century. I’ve got that hemoglobinopathy myself. Like Hemoglobin S (sickle trait) being a disorder preconditioning the sufferer to improved survival in areas where malaria and African trypanosomiasis (“sleeping sickness”) are prevalent, I strongly suspect selection pressures having resulted in thalassemia minor showing up so commonly among those of us who descend from the impoverished provinces south of the Po River Valley.

    Ancestors who weren’t so “blessed” tended not to survive as readily to reproductive age.

    As in most matters of epidemiological concern, there’s a helluva lot more to malaria than most people understand. Best if Matthew Thomas were to get an expert on tropical diseases as one of his co-investigators, no?

  80. davidmhoffer says: May 22, 2010 at 4:52 pm
    …………
    1900 to 1940 divergence in the CET summer – winter temperatures

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET5.htm

    was due to temperatures ( anomalies ) moving in the opposite directions as shown here:

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETt.htm

    (see bottom ‘detrended’ chart where long term trend was eliminated).
    This was not the case for the 1970 – 2000 period where both anomalies moved in the same direction (note 2000 – 2010 divergence is reappearing).
    I think this is good enough reason why the two periods, if one is interested in the science only, should not be compared.

  81. My wife is from a developing country, an island state in the sub-tropical zone.

    When I courted her there many years ago, the place hadno malaria problem, s it had been eradicated in the 1950s and 1960s. Planes landing were sprayed with insect killer before anyone got off.

    However, malaria has returned are chloroquine tables are a must for visitors.

    I know its only anecdotal, but I would certainly need to know more before I would accept Goklany’s maps. My understanding was that emergence of mosquitos resistant to insecticidal sprays has been the root cause of the resurgence of malaria.

  82. From Luboš Motl on May 22, 2010 at 10:37 pm:

    Does anyone know Oscar Whitman? Is he the legal husband of Michael Mann?

    No matter how much I enjoyed Seinfeld back in the day, I find it painfully near impossible to think about virtually anything concerning Michael Mann and say “Not that there’s anything wrong with that.” Let us not speak of this again.

  83. Everyone has missed out the fabulous quote from this scientist :

    “Climate change is, in our view, an unwelcome distraction from the main
    issues.”

    Dr Gething told BBC News.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/science_and_environment/10127989.stm

    “A lot of the studies proposing there would be a dramatic increase in a
    warmer world have been met with guarded criticism, and often what’s been
    said about them surpasses what the actual science indicates.

    “So this redresses the balance a bit.”

    ALSO:

    “I am slightly sceptical of the furore surrounding (malaria and) climate change in the sense that we have to bear in mind there are other factors that are moving much faster than climate change,” he said.

    “I don’t doubt climate change is happening, but we have also seen an increase in the coverage of treatment, and in the last 20 years there has been a huge amount of information and education on malaria made available in Africa; and that’s all changed much faster than the climate.”

    Of course it finishes with:
    “I don’t doubt climate change is happening, but…”
    (of course not a single sceptic doubts climate change, the doubt is MAN MADE Climate change)
    my translation from scientist speak:
    “I always thought ‘alarmist’ AGW was rubbish really,but I still cant say it yet less I get labelled a deniar (see New Scientist) and more people get hurt because my funding dries up…

    I personally expect to here more of this phrase from scientists/politicians over the next couple of years.

    Barry Woods

  84. There is a lot of nonsense on this thread. It is NOT necessary (or possible) to control malaria vectors to eradicate malaria, and DDT is not a panacea. Anybody familiar with the taiga zone in Canada, the northern US, Scandinavia and Russia knows that mosquitos there are far, far worse than in any tropical malarial swamp, and still malaria is extinct there, and mostly became so long before DDT was invented.
    What is really needed is reasonably decent housing, where mosquitos can’t get at sleeping people, and where mosquitos can’t sit out the dry/cold season indoors. Malaria oddly enough is almost always acquired indoors, and at night. That is why bednets and DDT can be used as a quick ‘n dirty solution, but decent houses is a better and permanent cure. That will incidentally also prevent reintroduction of the disease by carriers from malarial areas, which is emphatically NOT occurring in North America or Europe despite massive immigration from Africa and Latin America and supposed global warming.

  85. Italy had indigenously generated malaria until 1969, and was the last European country to have this problem. Malaria was not wiped out, despite a series of concerted government programs to eradicate the disease dating back to 1900 — including draining swamps, afforestation, education and social programs, and anti-malarial drugs — until the government finally embraced the use of DDT.

    Is there any link between the final eradication of malaria in Europe (Italy being the last European country to harbour the disease) and the EPA’s denunciation of DDT within a few years afterwards? If malaria had remained a threat in North America and Europe could the environmentalists have gained any popular or official support against DDT?

  86. Couldn’t we just use DDT? Ever since that lie has been exposed and been thoroughly debunked. In 2006, WHO once again allowed DDT to be used. So why not just put DDT back into production. The only reason DDT was banned was to keep people from living in the woods.

    And as a side benefit, the million or so African children under the age of 5 that are killed yearly, would live. There have now been over 35 million deaths since DDT was banned. Let’s try humans first.

  87. Malaria (et al) is a disease! Mosquitos are a vector! Why I’ll bet the Sun, and cloud cover, and temperature, and humidity have something to do with it. Think it’s something, maybe, that we only have to worry about when it’s damp and overcast and we don’t get enough UV? Sounds like something left over from the last Ice Age when folks didn’t live too long. That’s why Mann got the money! Ain’t he smart as a wet bird dog with a duck in his mouth?

  88. As to the Greenland rising comments, the entire Great Lakes region is still rebounding from all the ice that was sitting on it in the last ice age, and even if Greenland is rising, that is not predictive of the future.

    I am still of the theory that most warming is sun caused, and the low sunspot cycle will pretty much take care of it.

  89. Yes we need a refund, but more important, Mann should not receive anymore government money (Americans’ tax dollars) for his work.

  90. tty (May 23, 2010 at 2:07 am) says DDT is not a panacea. True, but then if we insisted on only panaceas for treating disease, virtually all diseases would go untreated.

    The real issue is whether there are situations where DDT is not only effective but cost-effective, considering its benefits and any undesired consequences . A discussion of DDT and malaria is available in my book on the Precautionary Principle, with an older version gratis in Applying the Precautionary Principle to DDT. Fact of the matter is that in many situations, indoor residual spraying with DDT is among the most, if not the most, cost-effective solution. Of course, this is not universally true.

    One of the strongest pieces of evidence of the efficacy and utility of DDT as a malaria control agent is contained in graphs available in Barnes et al. (2005) in PLoS Medicine and The Rise, Fall, Rise, and Imminent Fall of DDT by Roger Bate. These figures ,which are both based on South African experience in KwaZulu, show how, among other things, malaria cases and deaths in that region went up when DDT was replaced with pyrethroids, and then fell again when DDT was brought back.

    Does this mean that DDT is forever? Not necessarily, but while it is cost-effective, let’s use it. It allows us to buy time, get wealthier, improve public health services and, of course, save lives

  91. toby (May 23, 2010 at 12:39 am): I know its only anecdotal, but I would certainly need to know more before I would accept Goklany’s maps.

    RESPONSE: Not my maps. I just assembled them from a World Health Organization report put out in 2008 called, “Global malaria control and elimination : report of a technical review.” If you google it, you should be able to access it. However, I would suggest looking at Gething et al.’s diagrams and paper.

    Luboš Motl (May 22, 2010 at 10:37 pm ). It was my honor too.

  92. To think of the things that these scientists could be doing instead of this petty infighting. I blame climate change for wasting our time solving real problems.

  93. Average annual deaths in the US due to malaria: 10

    Average annual deaths in the US due to influenza: 20,000

    Influenza season is wintertime. Malaria season is summertime.

    Any questions?

  94. If the prohibition on DDT continues YOU will enjoy, again, Malaria and Dengue.
    Congratulations Saint Al Gore!, be praised for ever your sanctity!

  95. Enneagram says:
    May 23, 2010 at 10:55 am

    “If the prohibition on DDT continues YOU will enjoy, again, Malaria and Dengue.
    Congratulations Saint Al Gore!, be praised for ever your sanctity!”

    You should follow the ruling from the 6th circuit court of appeals- National Cotton Council vs EPA. Pesticide applications near or with the ability to enter the waterways of America may be regulated as a point source discharge– meaning public hearings, points source permitting etc. Mosquito control using pesticides could become a very big problem. Groups like No Pesticides Org are fighting across the country against pesticide mosquito control.
    Consider an area like Sacramento CA- high urban population surrounded by a half a million acres of rice fields. Malaria, Dengue and some other emerging disease are already omni-present at low levels– but the court decision and activist groups may take the tools we need away to keep these diseases in the background.
    Its easy to be concerned with the risks of vaccines when you have “forgotten” polio and its easy to become hysterical about pesticides when you have “forgotten” malaria and yellow fever. Hopefully we will not need to be reminded of these “old fears” before we act with some common sense.

  96. People have stated that Mikey Mann’s socio-economic edicts for the world cannot control climate, but it appears Mikey Mann can “make it rain” to the tune of $1.8 mill.

  97. Pat Moffitt says:
    May 23, 2010 at 11:57 am
    Hopefully we will not need to be reminded of these “old fears” before we act with some common sense
    One should expect “common sense” to be liberal (of “commoners”) but it is currently found only among conservatives. :-)

  98. Malaria kills millions of people. DDT may kill a few and damge some. Use the DDT. Climate has very little to do with malaria. Yes, it is associated with hot countries but in the past it has been prevalent in Northern Europe. Good housing and the drainage of stagnant water helps. How someone like Mann can a grant to study this is beyond belief. No background in Epidimiology; exposed as a fraudster in climate science. Whose taxes are paying for this? Do you live in a democracy or what?


  99. I’m quoting from an online article oriented to the continuing professional education requirements of defense attorneys (and secondarily to the medicolegal education of American physicians, who are – in effect – perpetually living in a condition resembling being staked out on a mudflat in alligator country).

    Under the Social Security Act [42 U.S.C. § 1320(a)(7).], the Office of the Inspector General must exclude a physician from Medicare and Medicaid participation for:

    * Conviction for any criminal offense related to a federal or state health care program;
    * Conviction for a crime relating to patient abuse;
    * Conviction for a felony connected to health care and involving fraud, theft, embezzlement, breach of fiduciary responsibility, or other financial misconduct; and
    * Conviction for a felony involving a controlled substance.

    The author goes on to observe that “Thus Medicare/Medicaid exclusion mirrors the general characterization of medical and professional licensing law as a veritable house of cards where the removal of one can cause the rest to quickly follow suit.

    I find this professionally hilarious, inasmuch as more and more physicians in America are flatly refusing to see Medicaid clients, and are increasingly – if not declining to accept any more Medicare patients – opting out of Medicare entirely.

    But, then, that’s how Obamacare is set up to work. You, the beneficiary of our Marxist Messiah’s largesse, can have “health care” as a National Socialist Party freebie.

    Of course, you’re not going to be able to find doctors willing to undertake your routine “health maintenance” care, thus obviating all the cost savings associated with preventive regimes.

    This in turn will provide an even greater cost savings for Barry Soetoro and his little ACORN elves, ’cause if people can’t find a service provider to fulfill Barry’s promises of bread and circuses, Barry’s goons don’t have to shell out for it. Ain’t socialism just wonderful?

    But that’s pertinent to Dr. Michael Mann’s latest rootings in the public trough, getting himself access to another $1.8 million in taxpayer money, in that it gives us to wonder whether there are parallel elements in the U.S. Code pertinent to the exclusion of people convicted of criminal fraud – such as the charges being presently pursued by the State of Virginia’s Attorney General. Ken Cuccinelli. against Dr. Mann – from federal funding such as this.

    My only formal education is in medical jurisprudence. Anybody with better knowledge of the law pertinent to governmental research funding in these United States?

  100. I recall reading many years ago that Prof Reiter (of the Pasteur Institute in Paris) who is a specialist in Maleria was highly critical of the 2001 IPCC report stating that the report exagerated the possible increase in Malaria with climate change. His view was that Maleria was not a tropical disease and as many posters have noted, it was prevalent in Northern latitudes in the recent historical past. I seem to recall that Professor Reiter may even have been on the committee but resigned due to the biased nature of the 2001 report. Some readers may recall that when the House of Lords carried out some enquiry into climate change, the House of Lords particularly noted Professor Reiter’s comment and found that the 2001 report could not be justified in these parts.

  101. Is Mann pretending to be an entomologist now? My father is an entomologist; my mother had malaria. I, therefore, assert that I am infinitely more qualified to conduct the study, and believe the 1.8 million should be immediately forwarded to me.


  102. Indur M. Goklany takes note of:

    …figures, which are both based on South African experience in KwaZulu, [that] show how, among other things, malaria cases and deaths in that region went up when DDT was replaced with pyrethroids, and then fell again when DDT was brought back.

    The pyrethrins and pyrethroids figure large in the medical management of lice infestations (pediculosis), and treatment options have been trending away from lindane to permethrin applications for the past couple of decades owing to the potential for neurotoxicities with lindane use.

    I would draw the readers’ attention to the fact that DDT use within residential spaces for the suppression of malaria vectors has unintended additional beneficiary effects.

    First, it suppresses other insect vectors of infectious diseases. Anybody out there familiar with the devastating effects of typhus in Italy during World War II, and the almost astonishingly effective address of that deadly disease through the widespread application of DDT “louse powder”?

    Second, DDT applied in residential areas reduces the damages done by insects exploiting humans’ storage of foodstuffs, which are considerable in and of themselves. Ants in the pantry and cockroaches in the wainscoting in a temperate climate are nothing compared to what happens to foods not hermetically sealed in a tropical area.

    The pyrethroids are nowhere near as effective in these secondary functions, and are themselves to certain extents hazardous to humans when employed to suppress the mosquito vectors of the Plasmodium pathogen species.

    As others have observed, there is no panacea. Attacking the vectors with insecticides is helpful. Recognizing that patient factors such as large populations of immune hosts with subclinical and/or nonfatal P. falciparum infections creates a reservoir of incubators for the pathogen is perhaps more important.

    Like it or not, in sub-Saharan Africa in particular, there are genetic factors (such as various of the genetic hemoglobinopathies) which are conducive to the maintenance of a humongous population of human malaria carriers. Only barrier methods – bed netting, better housing with “bug-proof” screens – can mitigate the reproduction of the Plasmodium species by denying their vectors access to both infected hosts and new breeding grounds for the parasite.

    Malaria is, in fact, a kind of racial curse. In terms of pathogen fitness, a sort of “modus vivendi” has been achieved between the Plasmodium species (including the murderous P. falciparum) and the authochthonous population of sub-Saharan Africa in particular.

    This must be recognized. It is not only necessary to re-institute the widespread use of DDT and similarly effective insecticides but also to confront the people whose skin color it is not politically correct to mention that they’ve got to stop sleeping without protection against mosquitoes.

    They are – genetically, intrinsically, inescapably – a helluva big part of their own collective problem with malaria.

    And now I’ll accept my share of that $1.8 million dollars being funneled into Dr. Mann’s pockets. I think I can make better use of it than he can, and I’m certainly more deserving of it.

  103. Grumpy Old Man says:
    May 23, 2010 at 1:16 pm
    Malaria kills millions of people. DDT may kill a few and damge some. Use the DDT. Climate has very little to do with malaria. Yes, it is associated with hot countries but in the past it has been prevalent in Northern Europe. Good housing and the drainage of stagnant water helps. How someone like Mann can a grant to study this is beyond belief. No background in Epidimiology; exposed as a fraudster in climate science. Whose taxes are paying for this? Do you live in a democracy or what?

    We really are in the age of the headline writer, someone writes an erroneous headline and posters sound off about it without ever bothering to actually read the article. Try reading the article! Another Grumpy Old Man

  104. The people who keep repeating that more AGW –> more mosquitoes —> more malaria haven’t been paying attention to the U.S. and Canada since the 1950’s. We haven’t lost any significant numbers of mosquitos over that period, but we did kill off the ones carrying the disease. The ones that fly around and play mini-dracula now don’t carry the disease. So, it seems clear that if we use DDT to kill the mosquitoes until malaria goes away anywhere in the world where there is malaria, just as we did in North America back 50 or so years ago, then it doesn’t matter how many new mosquitoes are born “because of man-caused global warming” or any other reason: they won’t transmit malaria because it will be gone. Why is there so much credence placed in the output of computer models which, first of all, is not data but guesses and second of all contradict the observable genuine data? Would I believe in such foolishness if I had a PhD in some sort of alleged “science”? Why do so many folks believe in computer outputs instead of their own eyes, memories and reason? Why are so many of those folks in charge??


  105. Mike directs attention to an explicitly fascist/warmist propaganda site (or are they calling themselves “progressives” again this week?) post on how “climate change” must be the only significant factor in the spread of malaria within the “developing” polities.

    I take particular delight in the first line of that 23 May 2010 spew: “

    There are many reasons why the public doesn’t understand how dire the climate situation is.

    There’s the beginning and the end of it, not so? The hysteria and the hype must be pressed, and for the unnamed writer of this post (apparently former U.S. Department of Energy official Joseph J. Romm), there’s a persistent whine about how “…the media has been providing a false balance in its choice of experts to quote….

    Jeez. So it’s heretical and evil and nasty to afford consideration to any deviation from the Cargo Cult Science dogma of the AGW priesthood, eh?

    Truth to tell it just delights me to read this specimen’s gripe about “…the coverage by the status quo media” and its whimper about how “That’s because most of the media have been suckered by the antiscience crowd (and lame messaging by scientists and others) into believing that the threat of global warming has been oversold when, in fact, the reverse is true.

    So Dr. Romm wants – without genuine challenge as to factual validity – the observations and opinions of colleagues whose findings are contrary to his own to be disregarded as had been the case in the halcyon days before Climategate, when Dr. Romm’s maunderings were accepted by the “status quo media” without any effort to secure balance of any kind whatsoever.

    Well, hell, Dr. Romm. And my growing grandkids now look back nostalgically to those years in which the adults in the family strove conscientiously to maintain the Santa Claus myth. Time passes, people learn better, and all your wishful whimpering isn’t gonna get that toothpaste back into the tube, is it?

    Those who have read my own comments on this thread with regard to patient population factors in sub-Saharan Africa which conduce far more puissantly to the persistence and virulence of malaria than does climate must appreciate that outside his narrow field of disciplinary specialization, Dr. Romm – like the rest of the committed AGW religionists – is a bloody ignoramus.

    It’s not that I’m a fan of Oliver Cromwell (though I confess to have really enjoyed the hell out of the Cromwell biopic released in 1970, and I freely acknowledge that it was the English Civil War and the subsequent rumbustiousnesses culminating in the Glorious Revolution of 1688 that led directly to our own American Revolution), but I do like that quote of his words to Parliament, which I direct to the fuming Dr. Romm and the rest of the warmist fellahin:

    “I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken. “


  106. Ike writes about:

    :The people who keep repeating that more AGW –> more mosquitoes —> more malaria haven’t been paying attention to the U.S. and Canada since the 1950′s. We haven’t lost any significant numbers of mosquitos over that period, but we did kill off the ones carrying the disease. The ones that fly around and play mini-dracula now don’t carry the disease.”

    Again and again and again, it must be borne in mind that the experience of “the U.S. and Canada since the 1950′s” as well as in southern Italy since about 1969 has demonstrated that it is host population factors that are key to malaria control.

    The fact of the matter is that the “significant numbers of mosquitoes” still observed (indeed, take note of those mosquito-borne viral encephalitides about which we have heard so much in recent decades) do not figure as prominently in the prevalence of Plasmodium-caused diseases as does the reduction in the number of humans participating in the Plasmodium species’ orgies of reproduction.

    Reduce the number of people with subclinical and subacute malaria infections in any given region, and you hammer down the Plasmodium pathogens to the point at which they cannot maintain their presence in that region.

    That’s what the happenings in “the U.S. and Canada since the 1950′s” tells us about this disease. Not one goddam thing else really needs to be known about it, “climate change” included.

  107. Objectively speaking, both mosquitos and humans are hosts and vectors for P. falciparum depending on point of view. To a mosquito humans are the vector that passes it from mosquito to mosquito. It is a single cell eukaryote with both asexual and sexual reproductive phases in its life cycle. The asexual phase is in the human and the sexual phase is in the mosquito. Falciparum is by far the deadliest species in the plasmodium genus and doesn’t do well in climates that are either too cold and/or too dry for its primary mosquito vector:

    Mapping the ranges and relative abundance of
    the two principal African malaria vectors,
    Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and
    An. arabiensis, using climate data

    (a) Vector ranges
    The climate suitability zone that best described the range
    of An. gambiae s.s. lay within areas with total annual precipi-
    tation 330-3224 mm, maximum annual temperature 25-
    42C, minimum annual temperature 5-22C, mean
    maximum temperature of the wet season 25-38C and
    mean minimum temperature of the wet season 11-24C.

    Plasmodium has a very small genome for a eukaryote at about 22 million base pairs if I recall correctly. It is probably the most intensely studied eukaryote on the planet and one of fastest evolving due to small genome size and around 100 million trillion new individuals each year. About 1 trillion individual parasites in each human at the peak of an infection and about 100 million people infected every year. With that many individuals and a baseline mutation rate of about 1 nucleotide change per 10^9 base pairs copied every possible single point mutation is “tested” several times over in the population of every infected human. Resistant strains to anti-malarial drugs that are defeated by a single point mutation pop up rather quickly. Atovoquone is an example. It’s not very effective used alone. Drugs that require 2 or more SPMs for resistance take a lot longer to evolve a resistant strain. Chloroquine is an example where 2 or possibly 3 SPMs are required. If none of the required SPMs alone confers any survival value then it’s just about statistically impossible for resistance to develop. Interestingly there has never been a strain identified that survives in a human with congenital sickle cell anemia which is probably the only reason the sickle cell mutation in humans wasn’t weeded out by natural selection.

    Just some trivia I happen to know about it although I had to look up the temperature range of its primary mosquito vector. I had it in my mind that mean winter temperature of about 42F was its lower limit.

  108. I too find Joe Romm to be a bit self-important at times. But, the point of his post is that malaria alarmism was never justified. He reviews several studies and the IPCC report to back up his claim. He does believe the potential changes in the range of malaria due to climate change should be of concern and continued study – this would be true whether climate change was natural or man-made. Anthony and Rich Matarese dismiss Romm’s post as alarmist, when it is the opposite.

    And can we not call each other fascist? I get edited for using the d-word here!

    REPLY: It’s hard to see past his style for the message, perhaps I’m guilty of not reading deeply enough, but from my perspective it looks like many other essays he has written. Note that he bashes Revkin at the end, where Revkin points out exactly what you say: “The alarm was not justified”.

    – Anthony


  109. Dave Springer observes that “Objectively speaking, both mosquitoes and humans are hosts and vectors for P. falciparum depending on point of view.

    Regional climate effects upon mosquito populations are really not relevant here. Bear in mind that no matter how efforts at mosquito control had been undertaken in temperate zones (these United States, Canada, southern Italy), the control of the Plasmodium species was not effected until the human hosts’ participation in the parasite’s life cycle had been eliminated.

    It’s good to clobber the insect vectors. It helps, but it’s by no means enough. It’s necessary to get the human beings out of the loop. As Dave observed:

    “About 1 trillion individual parasites in each human at the peak of an infection and about 100 million people infected every year. With that many individuals and a baseline mutation rate of about 1 nucleotide change per 10^9 base pairs copied every possible single point mutation is ‘tested’ several times over in the population of every infected human. Resistant strains to anti-malarial drugs that are defeated by a single point mutation pop up rather quickly.”

    With that in mind, chemotherapy and chemoprophylaxis will not do the job, and they’re really not to be relied upon in any grand scheme of malaria control.

    These pathogenic parasite species must be denied access to specimens of Homo sapiens who can serve as hosts for the asexual reproductive phase in their life cycles. It is really impossible permanently to knock down the skeeter population that can be exposed to the Plasmodium species, and it is in human beings – keep this in mind – that the pathogens’ resistance mutations primarily take place and are made available for spread to biting mosquitoes and thence to other people.

    As for “…the only reason the sickle cell mutation in humans wasn’t weeded out by natural selection,” I direct Dave‘s attention to African trypanosomiasis, which is another goddam good reason for carrying Hemoglobin S around in one’s red cells if one happens to live anywhere in which Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, T. brucei rhodesiense, and their insect vectors are prevalent.

    As for my own part, note that I descend from il Mezzogiorno, and like millions of other southern Italians, I’ve got alpha-thalassemia – which is yet another congenital hemoglobinopathy which confers survival benefits in the presence of potentially severe P. falciparum infection. Lotsa microcytic red blood cells (an absolute polycythemia) making for an environment which is to some considerable extent not conducive to merozoitic invasion and the prosperity of Plasmodium trophozoites within them smaller-than-normal erythrocytes.

    These quasiprotective hemoglobinopathies are both a blessing and a curse, speaking as to population impacts upon malaria virulence. See my earlier posts on this thread.

  110. re; malaria in north America and northern Europe

    It didn’t become common in these places until there was a fair number of people traveling trade routes back and forth to the tropical endemic regions. An infected human can bring it to a temperate climate in the summer when the mosquitos are active enough to spread it. The winter generally kills it off and more infected travelers have to bring it back. Less virulent strains P.vivax and P.malariae do better in temperate climates. It’s suspected those species can enter a dormant phase in humans, which is probably genetically connected to the lower virulence, and emerge to spread again when the weather warms up enough for mosquitos to start biting. They all reproduce in their sexual phase in the gut of an adult mosquito so if it’s too cold for adult mosquitos it’s too cold for Plasmodium. Mosquitos generally don’t overwinter as adults in cold climates although it’s possible in some protected niches like deep inside big hollow logs. The typical route is mosquito eggs that lie dormant through the winter at the bottoms of ponds that don’t completely freeze.

    So it’s not impossible for P.falciparum to survive northern winters but a combination of factors makes it far more difficult than in the tropics and hence it wasn’t so difficult to eradicate in colder climates with a modest artificial effort to make it even more difficult.


  111. Mike tries valiantly to defend Dr. Romm by saying that this specimen had made “….the point of his post…that malaria alarmism was never justified…” and that “He does believe the potential changes in the range of malaria due to climate change should be of concern and continued study – this would be true whether climate change was natural or man-made.

    Bilge. I quote from Dr. Romm’s cited Web log post:

    I’ve published more than 2 million words and nearly 5000 posts on Climate Progress and you can search ‘malaria’ and find very little on it.

    Why? Many obvious reasons — it’s a second order effect from global warming, and we’ve long had intense global effort to fight the disease.

    In other words, Dr. Romm does very much ascribe the prevalence of malaria to “global warming,” which in turn he ascribes to anthropogenic carbon dioxide forcing.

    A “second order effect” is nonetheless an effect, and

    As for the identity between “progressivism” and the other forms of socialism – including fascism – let us consider the distinction between “pregnant” and “a little bit pregnant.”

    Either one is by philosophy methodologically individualistic or one is collectivist and therefore socialistic. Is it possible to characterize the political “progressive” of today as someone who affords any real respect to the individual rights to life, to liberty, and to property?

    As we look to the close of Dr. Romm’s post, we read (boldprint emphasis in the original) his impassioned reminder about:

    …the full array of climate impacts we face if we stay anywhere near our current path of unrestricted greenhouse gas emissions.”

    So the message from Dr. Romm is ever and always what he has sustained, that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission is the cause of “catastrophic” climate change, that the spread of malaria does link to anthropogenic global warming as a “second order effect,” and his explicitly “progressive” political assaults upon individual rights are “nonpartisan” to precisely the same extent to which the average reader of these comments can clean and jerk the Empire State Building.

    “Other common names for fascism are ‘crony capitalism’, ‘state capitalism’, ‘corporate socialism’ and ‘mercantilism’. Sometimes members of the mercantile class become partners with the state and, in certain circumstances, even end up controlling it. The whole thing looks like a different system than ordinary socialism until you apply the ethical definition. What’s more important in a fascist society, the needs and wants of the group, or the rights of the individual? As Mr. Spock once famously observed (in the original James Blish novel Spock Must Die), ‘a difference that makes no difference is no difference.’ “

    L. Neil Smith

  112. Here’s some good news on the world’s public health front:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/24/health/24child.html?src=me

    “Death rates in children under 5 are dropping in many countries at a surprisingly fast pace, according to a new report based on data from 187 countries from 1970 to 2010.”

    Okay…so, if this is happening in a supposed “warming” world, shouldn’t more warmth equal less mortality?

    The number one factor in reduction of morbidity/mortality is wealth, and a carbon-control scheme robs wealth and diverts funds from legitimate public health uses including conventional malaria control, nutrition and vaccination.

    Putting the brakes on fossil energy usage at this point in human history, without a clearly superior/cost-effective alternative, would be no less than criminal.

  113. @Rich Matarese

    I didn’t find any discussion of sickle cell providing resistance to African sleeping sickness in the article you linked and a quick google didn’t reveal any other mention of a link either. Discussion about natural selection, sickle cell, and malaria is not hard to find. It’s one of the classic examples of natural selection in humans. It’s also a good example of how natural selection often resembles trench warfare – each side in the battle loses something and the “winner” is the one that can survive greater losses. For instance, chloroquine resistance comes about (working from memory) through mutations that alter efflux pumps on the cell membrane making them less specific so that they pump chloroquine out of the cell. It might be the other way around and it’s influx pumps mutated to become more specific and turning away chloroquine. In either case the altered specifity of the pumps alters their proper functioning for molecules other than chloroquine and the cell suffers for it. In the absence of chloroquine the mutations that confer the resistance quickly disappear from the population because without the drug the cells with the mutation are at a disadvantage to cells without the mutation. That’s trench warfare again. As soon as the battle is over the sacrifices in the trenches that won the battle are no longer needed.

    It may be that the only effective way to fight MDR (multiple drug resistant) staph that’s rampaging through hospitals is a coordinated complete cessation of one or more of the antibiotics in the MDR suite so that the mutation goes away then start using them again but this time in a coordinated rotation so that the staph never gets a chance to build up the MDR suite again.

    At any rate this is a subject of interest so if you could point me to a paper that talks about sickle cell providing some resistance to sleeping sickness I would appreciate it.

    Is there some other source you can point me to that links sleeping sickness and sickle cell?

  114. @ CRS, Dr.P.H.

    I don’t think any of the “alarmists” have said major health impacts from AGW were happening now. There is no reason to suppose a linear dependence.

    I agree with your second point to a degree. But, if AGW is real and reduces world GDP (the Stern report estimated a 20% drop: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Review), then doing nothing would have a “criminal” impact on the world’s poor. Most discussions about GHG emissions reductions call for no reductions and allow for continued growth in third world GHG emissions and for developed countries to start reducing GHG emissions quickly – there is debate over what role big semi-developed countries like China and India should play. Now, I don’t claim to know if Stern is right, but both sides claim they want what is best so neither is morally criminal. We need to be able to look at the problem as one one balancing different risks. It is possible that the world’s leading scientific bodies are closer to the truth than the few skeptical researchers and a community of bloggers. Suppose there is a 30% chance the “warmists” are right. Shouldn’t we under take some modest mitigating actions? What if it is 50% or 70%?

  115. Rich Matarese says:
    May 23, 2010 at 7:01 pm


    Dave Springer observes that “Objectively speaking, both mosquitoes and humans are hosts and vectors for P. falciparum depending on point of view.”

    Regional climate effects upon mosquito populations are really not relevant here. Bear in mind that no matter how efforts at mosquito control had been undertaken in temperate zones (these United States, Canada, southern Italy), the control of the Plasmodium species was not effected until the human hosts’ participation in the parasite’s life cycle had been eliminated.

    It’s good to clobber the insect vectors. It helps, but it’s by no means enough. It’s necessary to get the human beings out of the loop.

    (Later, you use words to the effect that “humans are primarily the vector” …)

    —…—…

    I understood, from reading about the first mosquito control programs in Panama while building the Canal, that animals were a very important mid-life vector for the mosquitos – that Gorgas and his crew could not have succeeded without also stopping the pet and wild animal transmission.

    True? Or more true for the other diseases (dengue fever, yellow fever, cholera, etc) he was attacking as well as malaria, but not malaria?

  116. On the WHO maps of Malaria, in 1945 the disease was endemic in Archangelsk, Northern Russia, on the shore of the Sea of Barents. From Wikipedia, this cities’ yearly average temp is high 4.8C, low -2.7C.

    The eradication of malaria from Western countries has nothing to do with temperature or climate. Warmer temperatures will not bring back malaria.

  117. vukcevic says:
    May 23, 2010 at 12:32 am
    davidmhoffer says:
    1900 to 1940 divergence in the CET summer – winter temperatures

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET5.htm

    was due to temperatures ( anomalies ) moving in the opposite directions as shown here:

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETt.htm>>

    Interesting. I thought there might be a correlation with Beck’s claim of an abnormal jump in CO2 for that time period. His methods are highly criticized but here’s the link if you are interested http://www.biokurs.de/eike/daten/berlin30507/berlin9e.htm

    Of more interest is the summer trend that you show versus the winter trend. You’re showing a steady decline from about 1750 to 1920 in summer temps, but when combined with the winter temps it would be an annual rise. The reason I find that curious is that all these tree ring studies by Mann et al report flat or slightly increasing temperatures for that time period. But since tree rings can only report the growing season (summer) they should be showing a decline not an increase. Not that they had any credibility left at all, but would be interesting to see if global summer temps follow the same pattern as CET (an increase in annual but a decline in summer).

    I also think we should be looking at summer versus winter trends like you have. Since radiance varies with temperature to the power of 4, one would expect that any forcing, natural or otherwise, would have a more pronounced effect on winter temps than summer…. which your graph shows.


  118. Writes RACookPE1978 of this deponent:

    (Later, you use words to the effect that ‘humans are primarily the vector’ …)

    Nah. I think you mistook my quote of Dave Springer as having been something I’d said.

    For a human being to be considered a vector of infectious disease, there has to be human-to-human transmission as one of the primary modes of contagion. Venereal diseases (now called by the politically correct term “sexually transmitted diseases”) are infectious disorders in which human beings are the vectors. I’m not likely ever to characterize humans as anything but hosts and patients when it comes to a discussion of malaria.

    Barring transmittal by way of blood products transfusions – which can and has happened – human-to-human contagion of malaria is not a problem.

    When Gorgas was going after yellow fever, he was addressing a flavivirus pathogen – a bug quite different from the Plasmodium species – which in the wild cycles through sylvan primates as a host reservoir. In urban outbreaks (such as the Philadelphia epidemic of 1793), the yellow fever pathogen finds its hosting among human populations.

    While there are some zoonotic Plasmodium species which can “cross over” to infect humans, to the best of my knowledge the four species responsible for human malaria (falciparum, ovale, vivax, and malariae) are not reservoir’d among any animal species, either domestic or feral. I came across a pretty good slidekit on parasitology and zoonoses online, and you’re welcome to dig into it.

    A check on the CDC Web site supports this contention that there are no non-human critters who play the same role in the life cycles of the four pathogenic species of Plasmodium that we do. Admittedly, I took my first formal courses in parasitology and infectious diseases some thirty-mumble years ago, and I’ve been out of the U.S. Public Health Service not much less time than that, but this ain’t rocket science.

    Hm. I wonder if I can get CME credit for participation on this thread.

  119. @ Mike, 8:55 pm

    “I don’t think any of the “alarmists” have said major health impacts from AGW were happening now. There is no reason to suppose a linear dependence.”

    REPLY: Mike, thanks. I’m in the field of public health and have been regularly inundated with presentations blaming increased range of hanta-virus infected rodents etc. directly on global warming/climate change.

    I had the pleasure to see Dr. John Holdren, chief science advisor to Pres. Obama, give this presentation to the National Association of Engineers “Grand Challenges” summit in Chicago:

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/jph-chicago-04212010.pdf

    Please see Slide 24/54:

    Harm is already occurring widely. Worldwide we’re seeing, variously, increases in
    • floods
    • wildfires
    • droughts
    • heat waves
    • pest outbreaks
    • coral bleaching events
    • power of typhoons & hurricanes
    • geographic range of tropical pathogens

    All plausibly linked to climate change by theory, models, observed “fingerprints”
    —–
    This powerpoint presentation should be required reading! Take a deep breath, global health is improving substantially.


  120. Dave Springer complains: “I didn’t find any discussion of sickle cell providing resistance to African sleeping sickness in the article you linked and a quick google didn’t reveal any other mention of a link either.

    Sorry. I recall a lecturer in parasitology having discussed the perception that sickle trait (Hemoglobin AS) conferring improved survival in cases where a human was infected with Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense, but that was back in the ’70s, and African trypanosomiasis is, for most of us stay-at-home American “primary care providers” a real zebra. I haven’t so much as seen a freshly-caught T. brucei of either principal subspecies under a microscope in more than three decades.

    Went scrambling for my antique Parasitology textbook, but no luck. I think my daughter (now with three kids of her own) copped it to press flowers back when she was in grammar school.

    With regard to multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO’s), the most recent CDC guidelines were released in 2010, and the IDSA guys are planning their guidelines on the subject for release in the Fall of this year.

    The notion of reserving certain antibiotics for drug-resistant strains of particular pathogens is not novel, but getting people to agree on what they should hold back is tough. In my personal experience, there are considerations other than prevailing patterns of resistance that have to be appreciated, particularly relative toxicities, individual patient allergies and other sensitivities, and drug-drug interactions.

    I confess that most of my interest in non-bacterial infectious diseases over the past couple of decades has been focused on HIV-1 and Hepatitis C virus (HCV), which is where the diagnostic and therapeutic juggling act gets really hairy.

    Hm. I’d like to see the AGW fraudsters find some kind of causative link between atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and patients whose livers get fried by that goddam flavivirus.


  121. CRS, Dr.P.H. extols yet another one of Barry Soetoro’s apparatchiki and his “drop your pants, bend over, and pray for Vaseline, ’cause we’re gonna screw you!” presentations.

    Nah. I ain’t buyin’ that line of crap, either.

    Reasoning predicated on erroneous and flagrantly false premises can never be anything but erroneous or mendacious.

    As always, that global warming has been taking place over the past couple of hundred years there is no doubt. That this warming is to any significant extent anthropogenic has not only not been proven, but there is one helluva lot of observational evidence supporting sound theory to the effect that it bloody well can’t happen.

    Therefore inflicting Barry Soetoro’s “solutions” on this ill-defined problem can have no effect other than economic dislocation on a scale rivaling that induced by widespread aerial bombardment.

    Before I see another cent expended on AGW “research,” how about a few bucks spent in getting us a copy of Barry’s long-form printed-on-paper signed-and-embossed official State of Hawaii birth certificate, okay?

    As if such had ever existed.

  122. John R T , KimW

    Puddle control might have as large an effect as DDT, without endangering brown pelican eggs. Any puddles I get in my yard here in Houston get populated with wigglers in about three days.

    I used to stay at the Barcelo Palacio in San Jose, CR, an upscale neighborhood and well uphill of much of the town. Never seemed to have a mosquito problem there, but perhaps they “took care of it” on their own. I didn’t know about Singapore, but I’m not surprised.

  123. Want to erradicate malaria? Bring back DDT. Oh, that’s right, the shoddy science of Rachel Carson was the basis for banning DDT worldwide; a ban which alone has resulted in millions of needless human deaths from malaria, all the while not traceable to any loss of fauna, thinning egg shells, or similar tommyrot.


  124. Mike McMillan writes about “Puddle control” and reminds me of my free-ranging rural childhood, during which time we were turned out-of-doors in clement weather with admonitions to return home when full dark overtook us, and no expectations of adult supervision or protection of any kind whatsoever.

    My poor grandchildren – courtesy of my MSM-blighted adult offspring and their equally neurotic spousen – are helpless hothouse plants by comparison.

    Part of our routine, self-acknowledge duties while roaming farms and fields and woods was to obliterate or otherwise deny mosquitoes access to standing water. No matter what else we were doing, without discussion or demurrer, we overturned tin cans, flipped old tires, filled in puddles, inverted wheelbarrows, covered rain barrels, and otherwise addressed these potential skeeter breeders.

    Nobody told us to do this as a matter of “community service.” We had been educated in school about how the little bloodsuckers reproduce, and we were informed that if people could add puddle-plotzing to the ongoing DDT-spraying campaigns (the roads were regularly occupied by trucks misting the countryside), we could reduce their pestiferous impositions upon our own persons, and it was entirely out of self-interest that we treated incipient mosquito nurseries to extirpation.

    The woods and fields were our domain and free-time habitation, the places where we could go to get away from the goddam grown-ups, and we took fierce proprietary interest in those sylvan and sandpit waste patches not yet bulldozed by the real estate developers.

    I find that children today don’t have that “My place” attitude toward the out-of-doors, almost certainly because their parents never leave the kids to hellangone alone. With no sense of their own power, they have no real sense of responsibility, and thus today’s children – not one friggin’ bit motivated by the Teachers’ Union ex-Education majors in the government gulags – do not participate in “Puddle control” and do not grow up to become adults with any appreciation of the functions of participatory citizenship.

    Ain’t that the way Barry Soetoro and all his little ACORN elves want it to be?

  125. Research Grant for malarial thermageddon… cool

    Malaria in Britain: Past, present, and future
    Katrin Gaardbo Kuhn*,†, Diarmid H. Campbell-Lendrum*, Ben Armstrong‡, and Clive R. Davies*
    + Author Affiliations

    *Disease Control and Vector Biology Unit, Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, and ‡Environmental Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom
    Communicated by Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Berkeley, CA, June 16, 2003 (received for review February 20, 2003)

    Next SectionAbstract
    There has been much recent speculation that global warming may allow the reestablishment of malaria transmission in previously endemic areas such as Europe and the United States. In this report we analyze temporal trends in malaria in Britain between 1840 and 1910, to assess the potential for reemergence of the disease. Our results demonstrate that at least 20% of the drop-off in malaria was due to increasing cattle population and decreasing acreages of marsh wetlands. Although both rainfall and average temperature were associated with year-to-year variability in death rates, there was no evidence for any association with the long-term malaria trend. Model simulations for future scenarios in Britain suggest that the change in temperature projected to occur by 2050 is likely to cause a proportional increase in local malaria transmission of 8–14%. The current risk is negligible, as >52,000 imported cases since 1953 have not led to any secondary cases. The projected increase in proportional risk is clearly insufficient to lead to the reestablishment of endemicity.

    Job done, gimme the money……….:-)

    Headline : Peer reviewed science results in catastrophe averted……….

  126. Greg Leisner says:

    A larger factor than climate change increases “incidence” of malaria in Africa – a population explosion….duh.

    http://allafrica.com/stories/200804100908.html

    Where a World Bank official is being interviewed:

    Africa’s population is growing at twice the rate of other regions. In the following interview, John May, a demographer at the World Bank, discusses the effects of population growth on Africa’s development agenda and what the Bank ….

    Also, AGWers hammered into my head for decades that there will be no significant change in temp in the tropical regions – it will all be in the temperate and polar regions. In the last few years, I have had to keep reminding them of this!!

  127. Charles S. Opalek, PE says:
    May 24, 2010 at 3:59 am
    “Want to erradicate malaria? Bring back DDT”

    Charles- it is much more complicated than that. Saying all we need to do is use DDT does not help educate the public or advance malaria control efforts in the world’s poorer economic regions. I agree DDT does not have a demonstrated human health impact at doses used for vector control-I agree temperature is being blown out of proportion. Those horrified about DDT fail to understand it replaced spraying with the far more powerful poison Paris (Emerald) Green– a mixture of diesel fuel and copper acetoaresenite. DDT is a vital tool but it is NOT the only tool required. It can however significantly reduce transmission and suffering. (Some mosquito populations have developed DDT resistance and can even metabolize it- this was seen as early as 50’s in India. Again it is complex– even if DDT does not kill by contact – mosquitoes tend to avoid it which makes it great for spraying inside the homes and its persistence means the spraying benefits last for a considerably longer time period- an important point in remote areas. Remember the vector is the mosquito- and we never eliminated the mosquito even in those areas where malaria is not now seen as a threat. Not only do you need to suppress the mosquito population you must also suppress the human/mosquito interaction (screens in windows, bedding etc–and DDT “scaring” skeeters from entering a room). Required control elements also include drainage of standing water and treatment of infected individuals. The problems are compounded by the remote nature of some of the infected villages and the inadequate health infrastructure unable to keep up a spraying schedule, insecticide “refreshing” of the bed nets and medication. There is also a counterfeit market for malaria treatment drugs (useless) – causing no small concern. (Remember one not only needs to suppress the mosquito but also the number of malaria infected hosts.)

  128. Several years ago the town of Greensburg Kansas ws hit by a tornado. The town of well under 2,000 population lost 12-13 people. When Obama ran for office, he commented on 10,000 died. This is very rare.
    Most times the death can’t exceed the number of population. If population grows, the figures we use should be rates per 100,000. If there was an area that lost millions, the expected rate would fall because a reduced number of places to infect.

  129. Vector-borne diseases result when vectors transmit the disease. It is irrelevant to temperature or in many cases, the number of mosquitoes. Eastern Equine Encephalitis is rare, generally because there are few vectors around where people are. Also, remember in 2003, there were nearly 3000 cases of WNV in Colorado and less than 100 in Florida. Obviously temperture had nothing to do with it.

    Yeah, and I’m sure they’ll use that $1.8 million to show that.

  130. It’s very nearly $1.9 million, actually: $1,884,991 to be precise.

    That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Look how much Michael Mann and his cronies have been screwing out of the US taxpayer since 1996 for climate related projects – here’s the list for which Mann has had his nose in the trough:

    Development of a Northern Hemisphere Gridded Precipitation Dataset Spanning the Past Half Millennium for Analyzing Interannual and Longer-Term Variability in the Monsoons,
    $250,000

    Quantifying the influence of environmental temperature on transmission of vector-borne diseases,
    $1,884,991

    Toward Improved Projections of the Climate Response to Anthropogenic Forcing: Combining Paleoclimate Proxy and Instrumental Observations with an Earth System Model,
    $541,184

    A Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indices,
    $330,000

    AMS Industry/Government Graduate Fellowship,
    $23,000

    Climate Change Collective Learning and Observatory Network in Ghana, $759,928

    Analysis and testing of proxy-based climate reconstructions,
    $459,000

    Constraining the Tropical Pacific’s Role in Low-Frequency Climate Change of the Last Millennium,
    $68,065

    Acquisition of high-performance computing cluster for the Penn State Earth System Science Center (ESSC),
    $100,000

    Decadal Variability in the Tropical Indo-Pacific: Integrating Paleo & Coupled Model Results,
    $102,000

    Reconstruction and Analysis of Patterns of Climate Variability Over the Last One to Two Millennia,
    $315,000

    Remote Observations of Ice Sheet Surface Temperature: Toward Multi-Proxy Reconstruction of Antarctic Climate Variability,
    $133,000

    Paleoclimatic Reconstructions of the Arctic Oscillation,
    $14,400

    Global Multidecadal-to-Century-Scale Oscillations During the Last 1000 years, $20,775

    Resolving the Scale-wise Sensitivities in the Dynamical Coupling Between Climate and the Biosphere,
    $214,700

    Advancing predictive models of marine sediment transport,
    $20,775

    Multiproxy Climate Reconstruction: Extension in Space and Time, and Model/Data Intercomparison,
    $381,647

    The changing seasons? Detecting and understanding climatic change,
    $266,235

    Patterns of Organized Climatic Variability: Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Globally Distributed Climate Proxy Records and Long-term Model Integrations,
    $270,000

    Investigation of Patterns of Organized Large-Scale Climatic Variability During the Last Millennium,
    $78,000

  131. northerngirl says:
    May 24, 2010 at 8:57 am

    “Vector-borne diseases result when vectors transmit the disease.”

    Temperature does impact the transmission rate– adult mosquitoes are not present in the colder months- but does little to change the relative potential geographic range. This is only a point of clarification. The goal is no malaria under any temperature. Climate linkage does nothing to achieve this goal and may indeed impede its progress.

  132. Hi temperatures are certainly no encouragement to malaria since one of the highest death rates due to malaria is from one of the coldest places on earth, Russia’s Siberia.

    There have been some instances though where African nations that have withstood political pressure and had the guts to start spraying DDT again have seen drastic decreases in Malaria. Surprisingly enough there have been no plants dying, no birds dropping, only bird droppings, and mortality rates have decreased.
    It would almost seem that the “bug” which is responsible for Malaria actually does better in cooler climes than warmer, which would seem to fly in the face of long held believes to the opposite.

  133. I want to thank Rick Matarese, Dave Springer and Pat Moffitt for their excellent contributions to this comment thread.

    I live and practice in a land of unusual animal vector diseases. Here in northern NM we have hanta virus and even more interestingly, Santa Fe county is one of the few places on the planet where plague is still endemic. The local vet usually sees 1 or 2 cases of plague in dogs almost every year. I haven’t seen a human case in many years but they still occur. One would not think that the climate of Santa Fe would be conducive for harboring unusual animal vector diseases. We’re high (about 7,000 feet) and dry (and very cold in the winter). On the bright side we have almost no mosquitoes.

    Ultimately the answer to malaria eradication is wealth but this true for a whole lot of diseases as well.

  134. Man Oh man! Now Mann is investigating malaria???

    DR. PAUL REITER, professor of entomology and tropical disease, the Pasteur Institute, who served on the IPCC and specializes in that area, studied that specifically and wrote off the warming connection long ago. Problem was the IPCC wrote what it wanted and rejected his findings. Dr. Reitter had to threaten legal action to get his name taken off the IPCC report.
    He has stated, “We have done the studies and challenged the alarmists – but they continue to ignore the facts, and perpetuate the lies.”

  135. (Anthony/Mods, would you please be so kind as to snip this guy’s garbage?

    Rich Matarese says:
    May 24, 2010 at 12:08 am

    CRS, Dr.P.H. extols yet another one of Barry Soetoro’s apparatchiki and his “drop your pants, bend over, and pray for Vaseline, ’cause we’re gonna screw you!” presentations.

    Nah. I ain’t buyin’ that line of crap, either.

    etc. etc.
    ——-
    I included Holdren’s slides not as a show of support for the administration, but as a demonstration of the crazy stuff being promoted at the highest levels! This mope doesn’t seem to get it.

    Thanks, Chuck the contributor)


  136. CRS, Dr.P.H. is upset because I took his earlier post (see above) at face value, in which he cites Holdren’s presentation and concludes with: “This powerpoint presentation should be required reading! Take a deep breath, global health is improving substantially.

    To which I’d responded that I ain’t buying any of this crap. Still ain’t.

    And now CRS, Dr.P.H. writes: “(Anthony/Mods, would you please be so kind as to snip this guy’s garbage?

    Another exercise in irony, perhaps? Or is he really demanding censorship?

    Perhaps he takes offense at my observation to the effect that Barry Soetoro is commanding the annual expenditure of $7 billion to “confirm” anthropogenic global warming (or to study its putative effects under the assumption that such man-made “climate change” is, in truth , happening) and will not put his signature to a consent for the government of the state of Hawaii to release to the scrutiny of the public his long-form, printed-on-paper (rather than Photoshop’d-into-JPG computer graphic images), signed and embossed birth certificate.

    Jeez, I’d be happy to cough up the fifteen bucks that the public records people in Honolulu want to charge for such an issue. Consider it my personal contribution to the maintenance of civil government under the rule of law.

    Those of us who prefer factual reality to duplicitous fabrications tend reliably to do so in every aspect of our evaluations of the phenomenal universe.

    Or doesn’t the concept of “falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus” arm the reasoning of the inquisitive mind anymore?


  137. Dr. Dave writes of northern New Mexico, where “…we have hanta virus and even more interestingly, Santa Fe county is one of the few places on the planet where plague is still endemic.

    Well, console yourself, colleague. At least the federal DHHS doesn’t list your corner of the country as one of the loci of Hansen’s disease.

    I draw attention to Dr. Dave‘s observation that “We’re high (about 7,000 feet) and dry (and very cold in the winter). On the bright side we have almost no mosquitoes.

    That gives me to remember a pattern of housing distribution in Sicily and the campagna of the southern part of the Italian peninsula, where villages and other clusters of domiciles are to be seen perched atop the higher hills, distant from fields and even vineyards to an extent that getting to and from these places of labor (and hauling fuel, food, and other things to home and hearth) was rendered miserably difficult.

    When I’d asked about that as a boy, I’d been told that arable land was in such short supply that the frugal peasants wouldn’t think about planting houses where they could instead plant garden truck or cash crops. Later I learned better.

    Mosquitoes and malaria, of course. As Dr. Dave observes, skeeters don’t “do” higher altitudes all that well. Till the soil in the lower areas, and get the hell out of there when darkness falls.

    In New Jersey – where the mosquito is said to grow to sizes suitable for requiring the filing of flight plans – a backpacker had reclined in his tent to sleep and had been awakened by two skeeters conversing just outside.

    “So do we eat him here,” said one, “or do we haul him back to the pond?”

    “Are you nuts?” replied the other. “We bring him back to the pond, and the big guys will take him away from us!”

  138. Rich Matarese says:
    May 24, 2010 at 4:34 pm

    CRS, Dr.P.H. is upset because I took his earlier post (see above) at face value, in which he cites Holdren’s presentation and concludes with: “This powerpoint presentation should be required reading! Take a deep breath, global health is improving substantially.”
    ——-
    REPLY:

    No, I take exception to your crass and unnecessary use of vulgar sexual innuendo on a science-oriented blog.

    Did you even read Holdren’s powerpoint? It represents an extreme pro-AGW position, and since he is Pres. Obama’s chief science advisor, I think all WUWT readers should be aware of this information.


  139. Ah, now CRS, Dr.P.H. speaks plainly. It’s my “crass and unnecessary use of vulgar sexual innuendo” to which he takes exception.

    Well, fu…. Whoops! Make that “schtupp” me. Is it just the commonplace Anglo-Saxonisms that offend this fellow, or is it the concept of copulation (even the non-fecundative sodomistic insults figuratively imposed upon the private citizen by “The Malevolent Jobholder” of civil government) at which CRS, Dr.P.H. takes umbrage?

    I did examine Dr. Holdren’s presentation, though. That’s why I ain’t buyin’ that crap. That he is one of Barry Soetoro’s “made men” I have no doubt, for he would not be present in the Obama Administration as yet another slurpker-at-the-public-trough were he not himself well equipped with a set of Oval Office intern knee-pads and a willingness to “serve” our Mombasa Messiah with his every intake of breath.

    Ooh. Perhaps yet another “crass and unnecessary use of vulgar sexual innuendo” there, eh? Ah, well. As the late Murray Rothbard once replied when he was asked how he managed to write so eloquently in condemnation of Keynesian economics and the evils of dirigiste government:

    “Hatred is my muse.”

  140. Rich Matarese says:

    “Well, console yourself, colleague. At least the federal DHHS doesn’t list your corner of the country as one of the loci of Hansen’s disease. ”

    No worries…we ship all our lepers to San Antonio where there’s plenty o’ armadillos.

    Honestly Dr. Matarese, you crack me up! You’d be a blast to have a beer with.

  141. Warming doesn’t trigger an increase in Malaria until we reach a fast approaching tipping point. It’s worse than we thought.
    Run for your lives!

  142. In California our native mosquito does just fine up to about 6000 ft elevation and is a great carrier of Malaria. The area up near where Anthony lives is a known Malaria Belt (when I grew up there we had mandatory nags in class about tipping water tubs to prevent mosquitos and had ‘mosquito fogging trucks’ drive through town).

    The ’49ers were often felled by Malaria.

    What changed it was public health, not warmth or cold. Take the AGW money and give it to MDs in stead.

  143. Rich Matarese says:
    May 24, 2010 at 12:08 am

    “…Before I see another cent expended on AGW “research,” how about a few bucks spent in getting us a copy of Barry’s long-form printed-on-paper signed-and-embossed official State of Hawaii birth certificate, okay?…”
    __________________________________________________________________________
    Just pray that some where in the 50 states they manage to seat the wrong grand jury.

    “….. As an independent grand jury, you also have the right to initiate your own investigations on evidence presented to you, and to indict anyone if you feel they are guilty of wrongdoing, including those government employees and elected officials who are not upholding an oath of public office….” http://www.fija.org/docs/JG_on_the_grand_jury.pdf

    Now if we can just get the majority of US citizens educated….. I have a whole list of politicians and bureaucrats that should be up on charges.

    See this for an example:

    http://www.marlerblog.com/2009/07/articles/lawyer-oped/one-e-coli-o157h7-outbreak-i-think-i-could-have-prevented/

    http://njcfil.com/b/pdf/stansTestimony.pdf

    The USDA essentially called Painter a liar. The Union (meat and poultry inspectors AFGE) sued:

    “…The lawsuit, filed April 8 on behalf of the meat and poultry inspectors AFGE represents, seeks to halt USDA’s implementation of a rule that in effect deregulates the critical post-mortem inspection of meat and poultry carcasses and instead relies on an industry “honor system.”…”

    http://www.afge.org/Index.cfm?page=USDA

    History of the whole situation: http://www.r-calfusa.com/BSE/050512-Exhibit7-LawReviewMcgarity.pdf

    Our food safety “scares” mirror what is happening with CAGW. It is a politically manipulated circus called the international HACCP regs. The regs were implemented in 1996 per WTO directive, unfortunately the “collateral damage” with food is people become ill and/or die. The media scares then allows Congress to pass “food safety bills” that impose stringent regs on farmers while continuing HACCP (corporate self-inspection) The blame for food contamination is passed to the farmer and the large corporations get a “get out of jail free card”

    The USDA is just one of the “corporate revolving door” bureaucracies that needs a major house cleaning complete with jail sentences.


  144. Writes E.M.Smith:

    What changed it [endemic malaria in California] was public health, not warmth or cold. Take the AGW money and give it to MDs instead.

    Even though it warms the cockles of my heart to hear somebody say that the research funding should go “to MDs instead,” I’ve got to point out that very few of us “health care providers” are actually in the business of addressing endemic or epidemic communicable diseases except on a one-by-one (or, at best, one hospital or nursing home at a time) basis.

    Its people like the membership of the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA) – among others – who focus on the “bigger picture” stuff.

    Don’t get me wrong; I like money. I even like this “legal tender” wipe-with-one-sheet-only bumfodder issued by the Federal Reserve System. But I’m not the kind of guy upon whom big wads of taxpayer cash should be showered in order to get optimax results in the address of real public health problems.

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