With apologies to Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. and Steve McQueen, I offer this advice: run ! A giant temperature anomaly is attacking Canada and Greenland.
An Example Of Why A Global Average Temperature Anomaly Is Not An Effective Metric Of Climate
Roy Spencer and John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville have reported in their Global Temperature Report that February 2010 was the 2nd warmest February in 32 years (e.g. see Roy’s summary).
Their spatial map of the anomalies, however, shows that most of the relative warmth was in a focused geographic area; see
The global average is based on the summation of large areas of positive and negative temperature anomalies.
As I have reported before on my weblog; e.g. see
What is the Importance to Climate of Heterogeneous Spatial Trends in Tropospheric Temperatures?,
it is the regional tropospheric temperature anomalies that determine the locations of development and movement of weather systems [which are the actual determinants of such climate events as drought, floods, ect] not a global average temperature anomaly.
What are the odds this is from using one thermometer for a huge grid, and something has changed that that location?
God watching the Olympics?
An interesting aspect of this is that the warm anomaly occurs near an area of the ocean which is important to the thermohaline circulation.
The area between Greenland and Canada, particularly the southern portion, is an area where the surface water cools, grows denser and sinks. That allows warm water from the south to flow northward and do the same (the “conveyor belt”).
If that area is relatively warm then there may be less cooling and less sinking and less conveyor belt activity this year. Perhaps this is part of the cyclical slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. and its associated net heating of the atmosphere.
Where would one go to see what the oceanic heat content is doing?
UEA launches staunch defence of staff salaries
“The University of East Anglia (UEA) said last night it needed to pay well to “secure people of the highest calibre” as it was revealed that 18 members of staff were paid salaries of more than £100,000 last year.”
http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24/news/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=News&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=xDefault&itemid=NOED19%20Mar%202010%2009%3A53%3A23%3A743
What? The Highest Calibre (laughing uncontrollably) The whole public sector in the UK is facing pay cuts and these bankster-like academics from the University whose only claim to fame is Climategate think they deserve more money!
So, does the “global average anomaly” tell us ANYTHING?
I always thought the “anomaly” a dubious concept, precisely because it implies that we know what is “normal” … but, assuming some reasonably long-run average is used (and ignoring that we dont have enough data for a long-run global average), is there any merit in discussing the anomaly at all?
Obviously, if it was 10 degrees C that’d be something, but I still dont know if anyone really knows what the effects of that would actually be? Especially linked to increased CO2, which I do not consider a poison, being somewhat fond of plants (for their own exhalations).
Ironically, if it was -10 C, I’m pretty sure that would be bad for all of us.
I wonder what that temperature anomaly graphic would look when plotted in a perspective other than Mercator (which tends to severely distort the polar areas).
As Pearland Aggie says, a lot of this effect is due to the map projection used.
It’s probably a small campfire from somebody’s polar bear hunting expedition.
Doug in Seattle (09:50:29):
ARGO site:
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/Marine_Atlas.html
Deep ocean cooling: click
Steve Schaper (09:43:40) : I think you will find that they are Satellite measurements.
I am still extremely suspicious of the Satellite derived temperatures, they go through too much mathematical conversion compared to a simple thermometer.
Steve Schaper,
“What are the odds this is from using one thermometer for a huge grid, and something has changed that that location?”
Zero. These are satellite readings.
A basic element in humor is incongruity.
That’s why it’s so easy to mock AGW “science”
Steve Schaper (09:43:40) : I’d say Zero given that it’s satellite data.
This is important, for more than one reason.
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (during extreme cold events).
The electric fields.
Magnetic ropes.
The bow-shock.
The poles coming into, and out of, climatic sync with one-another at the equinoxes and the solstices.
What about the Jan 2010 one.
What is even crazier is that the bias a flat map creates towards the poles make the anomoly look much larger than it is.
Another Climate Change Gem
Scottish Parliament
Thursday 18 March 2010
[The Presiding Officer opened the meeting at 09:15]
Climate Change
The Presiding Officer (Alex Fergusson): I apologise for the slight delay in starting, but the lens in my glasses fell out and I am completely blind without them.
The Minister for Parliamentary Business (Bruce Crawford): On a point of order, Presiding Officer.
I am glad that your lens is now in the appropriate place.
(…)
Sarah Boyack (Edinburgh Central) (Lab): We need more action and less talk and the debate gives us the chance to talk together about how we move forward. … We need to use the tools that Labour added to the 2009 act—public sector procurement, the public sector duty and the public engagement strategy—to deliver transformational change. I hope that the minister will report today on the progress that he has made on tackling the key issues that we identified when passing the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009—energy efficiency, energy, transport and land use.
We all know that the lack of a global deal at Copenhagen was massively disappointing, but as political representatives our job is to get on and deliver the promise that we made to developing countries and those at the sharp end of climate change and show that we meant it when we said that we would act. Last summer, we all said that a we-will-if-you-will approach was not good enough. Our targets are intended to stimulate action and not just support soundbites.
[Yawn … over 1 hour of meaningless ramble later about not just talking about it]
We must not allow the Scottish experience to become one of delays and missed opportunities.
In Copenhagen, there were posters everywhere that showed world leaders saying:
“I’m sorry. We could have stopped the catastrophic climate change… We didn’t.”
We need to act now so that we do not have to say sorry to future generations.
I am pleased that we have had this debate. I hope that we have many debates on this subject and that the Government has the chance to come to the chamber to report on its progress. I hope that we all participate in that progress and continue to push for real action to be taken. I hope that the Scottish Parliament can be proud of the legislation and not say, “Hey, it was a good idea, but we’re sorry it didn’t work.”
[Scotland, the windiest waviest country in Europe – with the windiest waviest politicians in the world!]
Looking at the chart for February, most of the earth’s lower troposphere was warmer than the seasonal norms, with some parts much warmer.
It would be helpful if we could also relate this to a map of actual temps colour coded so that blue colours/gradations show below freezing and red colours show above freezing. And plotted on a more realistic projection as Pearland Aggie suggests.
The use of vivid colours is useful for trying to see subtle or barely visible gradations as can be used when editing photos in Photoshop. It is beyond annoying when used in the AGW context especially when the choice of colour seems deliberately emotive. e.g. If we have somewhere that is considered to be -30C normally and has a whopping 10C rise to -20C it will be shown in a ‘warm’ colour implying that it is warm. I expect a greater care when presenting information of this nature and some frame of reference based on reality.
Thanks Smokey. I was looking for a site that has up to date global coverage rather than software, but it appears this software will do that.
Try again, without the “denial” accusation. ~dbs, mod.
If you make the GISS map for the same month, using the same baseline, the patterns look about the same. At least in the NH. The colorbar resolution in GISS doesn’t let you see all the contours at the top of the ‘blob’, but you could check the numbers to see that.
I don’t know why this is surprising. The Arctic Oscillation has been talked about all winter long.
I agree that regional effects are important to look at. So look at them. Look at the global trend map over the same time period. The odd patterns of one winter’s extreme AO event are not representative of the trends over the last 30 years.
Not sure how stable this URL will be – global trend map, GISS, 1979-2009.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=2&sat=4&sst=1&type=trends&mean_gen=0112&year1=1979&year2=2009&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
Blob, eh? Surely the vast AGW industry couldn’t be based on something as straightforward as a few dodgy instrumentation, temporary blips or overextrapolation of trends?
Through my telescope last night I saw a giant insect attacking the moon. Got all excited about headlines and funding opportunities and then realised it was just a fly on the lens.
Fear of “the Blob” …
This isn’t some kind of indirect mockery of Al Gore, is it?
Very odd indeed. On a largely cooling map there’s a great big hot-spot. Possibly it’s that hole in the ozone layer we used to hear about…
Mike Haseler (10:15:31) :
“Scotland, the windiest waviest country in Europe – with the windiest waviest politicians in the world”
I think they may have been shopping here:
http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=160411602416#description