From the London Times, signs that the Met Office might need a refresher course in basic forecasting skills and bonuses revoked. While I’m often critical of NOAA’s climate issues, the forecasts from NOAA put The Met Office to shame in terms of accuracy and detail. And, NOAA staffers don’t get bonuses, period.
Excerpts from the Times article by Steven Swinford
BUFFETED by complaints about its inaccurate weather forecasts, the Met Office now faces being dumped by the BBC after almost 90 years.
The Met Office contract with the BBC expires in April and the broadcaster has begun talks with Metra, the national forecaster for New Zealand, as a possible alternative.
The BBC put the contract out to tender to ensure “best value for money”, but its timing coincides with a storm over the Met Office’s accuracy.
Last July the state-owned forecaster’s predictions for a “barbecue summer” turned into a washout. And its forecast for a mild winter attracted derision when temperatures recently plunged as low as -22C.
Last week the Met Office failed to predict heavy snowfall in the southeast that brought traffic to a standstill. This weekend a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times reveals that 74% of people believe its forecasts are generally inaccurate.
By contrast, many commercial rivals got their predictions for winter right. They benefit from weather forecasts produced by a panel of six different data providers, including the Met Office.
Despite criticism, staff at the Met Office are still in line to share a bonus pot of more than £1m. Seasonal forecasts, such as the one made in September, are not included in its performance targets.
John Hirst, the chief executive of the Met Office, insisted last week that recent forecasts had been “very good” and blamed the public for not heeding snow warnings. He received a bonus of almost £40,000 in 2008-09.
Metra already produces graphics for the BBC, including the 3-D weather map that made some viewers feel sick when it was introduced in 2005. Weather Commerce, Metra’s UK subsidiary, has already usurped the Met Office in supplying forecasts to Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer and Waitrose.
…
The Met Office was bullish, though, saying: “We have always been in the strongest position to provide the BBC with accurate and detailed weather forecasts and warnings for the UK.”
h/t to many WUWT readers
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Late fall last year the Japan Meteorological Agency forecast that the coming winter would be a warmer one, but in reality the whole country has been shivering since late December. Probably we too need to replace the personnel as well as their computer?
I hear the Farmer’s Almanac has a pretty good record.
“forecast” should read “forecasted”, sorry.
I vote for Piers Corbyn. WeatherAction.com He’s on the skeptics side! And competitive with Joe Bastardi on a personality (and accuracy?) basis. And, ENGLISH!- born Chippenham Wiltshire, 10 March 1947
tokyoboy
You were ok the first time. Mirriam-Webster shows both ‘forecast’ and ‘forecasted.’ Take your pick.
“The Met Office was bullish, though, saying: “We have always been in the strongest position to provide the BBC with accurate and detailed weather forecasts and warnings for the UK.”
This could prove to be another lousy forecast.
Is Metra doing better than Corbyn?
By the way, Tokyoboy, “forecast” used in the past tense was OK.
To read the coverage from the BBC, the problems the Met faces are just with its long-range forecasts.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8462890.stm
Come on. Does anyone really believe anybody’s long-range forecasts? Seriously, I put them in the same category as that of a slick psychic. The Met has other problems. When they miss on calling a major snow event till the snow is practically falling, it’s hard to remain credible.
Yes, hopefully, it will be a Ceausescu summer for the Met Office.
Has anyone seen this?
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=122109
90 yrs, eh? When you lash yourself to the deck of an agenda, and it backfires, you might be going down with the ship.
Hate to lose storied institutions, but the MET’s track record of the last 2 years is really horrid.
US institutions should be paying attention. Get your act together before political wind changes, if you catch my drift. Try some spring cleaning.
US forecast modles are suffering from a unique sandbagging tact the last year.
People are noticing.
Metra supply graphics for channels 7, 9 and SBS here in Aussieland – they are great graphics!!
While I don’t have much sympathy for the Met Office, whose over dependence on the use of computer modelling appears to have contributed to their demise, it would be ironic if the BBC (who are the chief propogandists for the unproven CO2 thesis) decided to drop them. I am sure that the Met Office has felt under considerable pressure lately and hopefully the debate they are having is not just on the symptoms of their devotion to AGW and dubious modelling, but extends to the CO2 thesis itself. To me that is at the root of the problem. See http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/jim-dale-why-the-met-office-got-it-wrong-ndash-again-1863054.html (and most of the comments – I should say that I am Lapogus) for a perspective on their problems, and http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8462890.stm for an article on this internal debate.
juanslayton (20:01:32) :
“tokyoboy
You were ok the first time. Mirriam-Webster shows both ‘forecast’ and ‘forecasted.’ Take your pick.”
Oh, really? Thanks my dear mentor!
Joe Bastardi has done a great job.
I haven’t relied on the Met Office / BBC weather forecasts for years. There are numerous other forecasting organisations that offer their prognostications free of charge over this wonderful interwebby thing.
My current favourite is netweather.tv. I was initially put off by the thought that “tv” might stand for transvestite and the forecasts might involve burly lorry drivers in skimpy lace claiming to be called Alice. Fortunately there is not an inch of flimsy to be seen, just reasonably accurate forecasts that allow me to decide whether or not to venture out of FatBigot Towers.
We have finally reached the point that the global warmers demand that the voting public ignore the weeks, months and years of snow and cold outside of their windows and doors. The denialist strategy only works so long, then people get sick of it. Can anyone imagine the global warming lie continuing into next year? I can’t. The only drum beaters still remaining will be the bottom feeders who can’t afford to let the scheme go.
Is Danny “Lethal Weapon” Glover the first to claim Global Warming caused the Haiti earthquake?
He has a new movie in production….
Lethan weapon of Mass Destruction: CO2
and the sequel….
Lethan Weapon of Mass Destruction: CH4
I believe the Farmer’s Almanac uses astrology for it’s long range forecasts, you know sun,moon and large planets. 😉
Maybe we need to reexamine a 6,000 year old science that was based on observations of facts rather then use of computer programs based on wishful thinking.
Don’t know for sure but sometimes when something works there might be a reason.
Just the ruminations of an old country farmer…
The Met Office’s reaction to charges off botched forecasts? From http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8462890.stm
> Professor Chris Folland from the Met Office said a re-analysis
> of weather science might even show that the actual temperature
> measurements have under-recorded recent warming – making
> the Met Office forecast even more accurate than it appears.
Just like the IPCC “re-analysis” of its 1990 graph, which had shown the MWP, no doubt.
I want Joe Bastardi to to win only so someone at the Met can explaim “BASTARDI!”
I once had to fire an entire department. It was like unblocking a toilet, only bigger.
Sometimes it’s just time for a change
Let’s face it, who would miss them anyway ?? Answers on a postage stamp please.
I, too, vote for Piers Corbyn. He is absolutely the best candidate. Unfortunately, Piers is not in the pro-AGW camp so perhaps he has the wrong politics for the BBC warming enthusiasts. Anyone care to bet the BBC will go back to The Met? I think they will because The Met embraces AGW and the BBC will find it far more important to contract someone with the same religious beliefs rather than weather forecasting accuracy.
And because it’s Sunday, today’s weather forecast is from Weather Underground. Our accuracy rating for them is an 83, which is better than most of the others so they’ll continue on Sundays for the next month. On Wednesday we’ll reveal a new forecast source.
The MET lose the deal? Not a chance but the timing gives the BBC a great way of negotiating in order to get the price down. In the end the MET will roll on with its partner in AGW – the BBC only the ticket price will be coach.