While we find cooling trends now in RSS and UAH global data from 2002, the US contiguous temperature record for 2009 seems to be returning to very near the normal baseline for temperature in the last century.
From World Climate Report: Another Normal Year for U.S. Temperatures?
Early last January, when the final 2008 numbers were in for the U.S. annual average temperature, we ran an article titled “U.S. Temperatures 2008: Back to the Future?” in which we noted that “The temperature in 2008 dropped back down to the range that characterized most of the 20th century.”
2009 seems to be following in 2008’s footsteps.
The national average temperature had been elevated ever since the big 1998 El Niño, which was leading some folks to clamor that global warming was finally showing up in the U.S. temperature record. “Finally,” because prior to 1998, there was little sign that anything unusual was going on with U.S. average temperatures (Figure 1). The end of the record was hardly any different than any other portion of the record. The slight overall trend arose from a couple of cool decades at the start of the 20th century rather than any unusual warmth towards the end.
Figure 1. United States annual average temperature, 1895-1997 (data source: National Climate Data Center).
Then along came the 1998 El Niño, which raised both global and U.S. temperatures to record values, and our national temperatures remained elevated for 10 years thereafter (Figure 2). Instead of looking for some explanation of this unusual run of very warm years in the (naturally) changing patterns of atmospheric/ocean circulation in the Pacific Ocean, it was often chalked up to “global warming.”
Figure 2. United States annual average temperature, 1895-2007 (data source: National Climate Data Center).
But then something unexpected (by the global warming enthusiasts) happened in 2008—the U.S. annual average temperature returned to normal.
In reporting this in our World Climate Report article last January, we noted the drop in temperatures and wondered about the future:
But now, 2008 comes along and has broken this warm stranglehold. Perhaps this is an indication that the conditions responsible for the unusual string of warm years have broken down—and maybe they weren’t a sudden apparition of anthropogenic global warming after all.
Only time will tell for sure. But, at least for now, things seem like they have returned to a more “normal” state of being.
Now, 10 months have passed and we are starting to get a good idea of how 2009 is shaping up temperature-wise for the U.S. We may be jumping the gun a little here, because there are still two months (17%) of data still outstanding, and November has started out pretty warm across the West, but, in any case, Figure 3 shows the national temperature history for the first 10 months of the year.
Figure 3. United States January-October average temperature, 1895-2009 (data source: National Climate Data Center).
Thus far, 2009 is looking like another normal year—further indication that the warm period from 1998-2007 was an anomaly, rather than a step change to a new climate across the U.S. (be sure to check back in two months to see how the final 2009 numbers pan out).
No wonder the U.S. Senate is slow to get behind the need for restricting our fossil fuel-related energy supply in the name of climate change.
Who released this ? It was supposed to be adjusted !
Hmmmmn.
No volcanoes.
No sulfates (from the US at least.)
Increasing CO2 the whole time.
Gee. What is wrong with this AGW theory?
Another interpretation would be that 2008 and 2009 are as cold in the US as they can get these days. Look at the graph: the dips in it have risen above the overall average. How clear must a trend be?
Experience in Holland learns that summer average temperatures will not fall below the norm 1971-2000 unless we get the impossible: three full months of strong northerly flow. Last really cool summermonth was July 2000. That was also the last normal summer. All summers since have been warm to exceptionally hot. Independent of dominant circulation types.
We should wait at least another five years before embarking on any heroic measures to deal with global warming.
It would help me greatly to obtain some good references to support the mechanism behind “Then along came the 1998 El Niño, which raised both global and U.S. temperatures to record values, and our national temperatures remained elevated for 10 years thereafter”
The more I look into spatial/temporal aspects of the 1998 hot year, the more I find it riddled with mystery.
Climatologists tend to try to smooth data and look at trends. In geochemistry, we welcomed the rare highly anomalous value because it often had useful additional information, which was sometimes key. Readers, what were the detailed characteristics of 1998 in your region? e.g. What was the weekly or monthly pattern of temperatures in 1998?
An interim comment: it is very difficult to see if or how GHG simply enter the 1998 picture.
Interesting that Central Europe did not feel any effect of 1998 El Nino on temperatures compared to US, neither El Chichon and Pinatubo. Our truly rural station on Lomnicky peak showed cooling since 1940 till 1990, then with AMO turning warm it jumped up a bit and remained til now on a plateau, a bit warmer than 40ties.
No wonder this station dropped out from GISS dataset after 1989.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=641119300000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
Is it possible that El Nino events influence temperatures partly by increasing the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere? If they did, how persistent would this effect be? Years?
Also, surely given the physics of how CO2 “traps” heat, the effects of an increase in CO2 levels on the temperature of the atmosphere should be immediate?
Yes, the earth’s climate is a complicated thing, making those questions tricky, but isn’t that our whole point?
Good to see some solid evidence that temperatures are getting back down to lower levels. Unfortunately, as most of the temperature increases happened in the NH winter, I expect were in for much longer and colder winters, unless the sun decides to get back to the high levels seen in the 80’s and 90’s.
With Earth’s climate returning to cooler mode, time to wrap up warm – time to buy Damart shares anyone?
The unexpected event in 2008 of the US temperature declining to normal range is only half the story. 2009 continues that drop, despite the UHI dominated weather reporting that goes on unchecked and unaccounted for.
It’s getting colder out there, overall, and that hasn’t slowed one bit.
The Climate Change Bill (or whatever they are calling this worthless scrap of paper these days) could not have come to the Senate at a worse time for warmist enthusiasts. By the time the Senate is though with examining the bill for merit, it should be throroughly freeze-dried.
In fact, that is exactly what is happening to AGW enthusiasm: It’s getting freeze-dried.
rbateman, shall we expect this: http://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/15102009295052.png
rbateman (04:32:33) :
Quote of the month! I hope you’re right, please send Obama big bags of frozen peas for snacking on his way to Copenhagen.
I’m glad to see the word normal in quotes.
It really irritates me when the local weather jockeys report that we’re above or below “normal.” Every now and then one of them will slip up and report that we’re above or below average. (Can they be fired for that?) I can’t see how it would be so hard for broadcasters to report that “temperatures today will be X degrees above the YYYY to YYYY average.”
As for temperatures reverting to the mean; unlike Lake Woebegone children, all of the temperatures can’t be above average.
‘normal’: As is every year.
Nov 10, 2009
New geologic evidence of past periods of oscillating, abrupt warming, and cooling
(We have to know our past to know our future)
By Dr. Don Easterbrook
http://www.icecap.us
Panic!!! Panic!!! Panic!!!
People are causing
CATASTROPHIC ANTHROPOGENIC AVERAGE TEMPERATURES !!!!!!
CAAT is gonna kill us all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here are a few charts of US temperatures back to 1895 using a 12 month moving average (there is too much variability to show the data in the form we are used to seeing). It is a little more more informative than the the usual NOAA/NCDC chart.
12-month moving average in Degrees F. Substantial cooling since early 2006.
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/8913/ustempsf.png
And then in the Anomaly form in Degrees C. US Temps have fallen about 1.3C in the last 2 and a half years and is now back to about the 1895 to 2009 average.
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3491/usmonthlyanom.png
It is obviously worse than we thought! Do something now!
In regard to the last sentence:
“No wonder the U.S. Senate is slow to get behind the need for restricting our fossil fuel-related energy supply in the name of climate change.”
Please note that ‘fossil fuels’ are NOT from fossils:
‘Fossil’ Fuels are NOT from fossils:
• “Researchers at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm have managed to prove that fossils from animals and plants are not necessary for crude oil and natural gas to be generated. The findings are revolutionary since this means, on the one hand, that it will be much easier to find these sources of energy and, on the other hand, that they can be found all over the globe.”
The Swedish Research Council, “Fossils From Animals And Plants Are Not Necessary For Crude Oil And Natural Gas, Swedish Researchers Find,” September 12, 2009, ScienceDaily.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/09/090910084259.htm
Come on, people. Think about how absurd the premise was to begin with.
Wait for next summer, shut off the air conditioning in congress then get ready to vote. Been there done that except for the vote. Its worse than we………. now that is normal.
“No wonder the U.S. Senate is slow to get behind the need for restricting our fossil fuel-related energy supply in the name of climate change.”
You give those clowns too much credit. The only meteorological measurement they notice is which way the political winds are blowing.
US temperature record seems to be quite similar to station records from Greenland, Scandinavia and Russian rural stations. And 80 -year trend seems to be quite flat in these records. So from where comes the rising trend to GISTEMP Northern latitudes?
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.B.lrg.gif
RR Kampen,
“Another interpretation would be that 2008 and 2009 are as cold in the US as they can get these days.”
An interesting variation on the theme “it would have been colder if it weren’t for global warming.”
Boy, you’re good.
Holland appears to be the exception. Remove bad site selection and NASA introduced fudge factors and I wonder what the North American record looks like? Of course that’s only 8 million square miles, certainly not global.
We in the US are often accused of being provincial but Holland? How many million square miles is that? How good are their temperature records? Ours are known to have a big warm bias and yet we have no warming. When I talk about cold weather around me I am talking about an area at least the size of Western Europe, I wouldn’t mention it if it was that local. RR how has it been in Switzerland? Norway? Ukraine?
The midwest (think Rapid City to Toronto and St Louis and North) is not showing warming. Best guess based on the themometer records is the early 70’s were colder but 20s and 30s were quite a bit warmer than today. You would call this local weather and not global. I would agree. But Holland as a counter example? Seriously?
“‘Fossil’ Fuels are NOT from fossils: Come on, people. Think about how absurd the premise was to begin with.”
Former soviet scientitst know that oil has an abiogenic origin deep in the earths crust. They have published the chemical reactions and have created oil in the lab (similar to the way diamonds can be artificially created). Ever wondered why the Saudi oil fields haven’t emptied after 50 years of production?
The ideathat oil somehow accrues from dead animals was floated way back in the nineteenth century, but was latched onto as if it is fact. Like most wrong theories, they eventually give way in a paradigm shift. Eg dinosaurs became extinct because mammals ate their eggs, and CO2 causes the climate to warm dangerously. Oh wait, the last one has still got a few years left to run.
RR Kampen (00:54:17) : “Experience in Holland learns that summer average temperatures will not fall below the norm 1971-2000 …”
Nice cherry pick. Did you not read the baseline in this article is from 1895 -2009?