RSS Global Temperature Anomaly also down in May, halving the April value

RSS May 2009-520

Click for a larger image

The RSS (Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA) Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) lower troposphere global temperature anomaly data for March 2009 was published yesterday and has dropped after peaking in January.   The change from April with a value of 0.202°C to May’s 0.09°C is a (∆T) of  -0.112°C.

Recent RSS anomalies

2008 10 0.181

2008 11 0.216

2008 12 0.174

2009 01 0.322

2009 02 0.230

2009 03 0.172

2009 04 0.202

2009 05 0.090

RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa)

The RSS data is here (RSS Data Version 3.2)

Oddly, a divergence developed in the Feb 09 data between RSS and UAH, and opposite in direction to boot. UAH was 0.347 and RSS was 0.230

 I spoke with Dr. Roy Spencer at the ICCC09 conference (3/10) and asked him about the data divergence.

Here is what he had to say:

“I believe it has to do with the differences in how diurnal variation is tracked and adjusted for.” he said. I noted that Feburary was a month with large diurnal variations.

For that reason, UAH has been using data from the AQUA satellite MSU, and RSS to my knowledge does not, and makes an adjustment to account for it. I believe our data [UAH] is probably closer to the true anomaly temperature, and if I’m right, we’ll see the two datasets converge again when the diurnal variations are minimized.”

It certainly looks like the data sets are converging now, with a scant difference in May of .047°C and that Dr. Spencer was right.

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Adam Soereg
June 5, 2009 12:00 pm

Despite of the near-neutral ENSO conditions the global temperature is falling again. Last year the UK MetOffice predicted that the year 2009 will be at least the fifth warmest on record, and just the recently observed La Nina conditions preventing it from being even warmer.
The latest La Nina has gone, and this year is lightyears away from being the 5th warmest or higher. Something is not right with the forecast mechanism used by the MetOffice. Since 1999, they have forecasted too high values for every years. They have been wrong all the time, and always to the same direction. It can’t be just a random error, it must be a very clear bias.

grayuk
June 5, 2009 12:03 pm

Love the website, love the data, man made global warming is a farce, I have always believed it, but this website just keeps enforcing my opinion (and just about everyone I speak to).
Now, how are we going to stop the idiot politicians before they ruin us all?
What can we all do? Any guidance? Any ideas for positive action? We have to get this insanity stopped?
P

grayuk
June 5, 2009 12:07 pm

I have stopped using the UK met office for any weather forecasts, they are almost always incorrect, and the website is now nothing more than a man made global warming propaganda shop window.
P

John F. Hultquist
June 5, 2009 12:09 pm

“Dr. Spencer was right.”
All of this research and reporting – atmosphere, oceans, solar, weather stations – is multifaceted and globe spanning. Thus, it is difficult to keep up with small parts of it. I always find Dr. Spencer’s reports and statements encouraging because he always writes in a very accessible manner, makes sense, and knows how different parts relate to one another. In the current case I feel confident that these data are reasonable because Spencer says they make sense to him and tells why.
In contrast, and very discouraging, when presented with a report from an avowed or closet “warmest” the assumption is one of being conned and trying to figure out how they are doing it.

Filipe
June 5, 2009 12:14 pm

What’s the baseline period for the anomaly? It’s not indicated in the plot.

skeptic
June 5, 2009 12:20 pm

Always a pleasure to see the cherry-picked examples of lower temperatures. Reading this site, one would get the impression that the world is getting colder, and would hardly know that we are in the midst of the hottest decade ever, or that last year was hotter than the average of the previous record holder for the hottest decade ever (1990s).
BTW, I noticed the NSIDC has resumed reporting arctic ice loss. Sadly, it shows that 2009 loss is well below normal and has almost exceed the record year for this time of year. I remember you had quite a number of posts when it was only a little less than average, and a few more when it went offline. Will you run a few more now that it shows results inconsistent with your hypothesis?

June 5, 2009 12:25 pm

Adam Soereg (12:00:22) :
Despite of the near-neutral ENSO conditions the global temperature is falling again. Last year the UK MetOffice predicted that the year 2009 will be at least the fifth warmest on record, and just the recently observed La Nina conditions preventing it from being even warmer.

A little caution might be advisable here. There tends to be a lag between ENSO events and satellite temperatures. RSS and UAH temperatures are probably only now responding to the low point of SST which happened a couple of months ago. Hadley and GISS anomalies are likely to increase over the next few months with RSS and UAH following suit by the end of the summer.

Leon Brozyna
June 5, 2009 12:29 pm

Tracking each month’s values is about as exciting as watching the paint dry on this (& the UAH) thirty year data collection project. In eyeballing the thing, I can see why the more fanatical of AGW proponents are sounding hysterical of late — after leveling off for a few years, the last 4-5 years seem suggestive of a falling temperature trendline. Ah well, such are the vagaries of climate – those damn cycles keep hiding all that warming.
Speaking of the vagaries of climate – remember the big disaster in the making last year in the SE US – the record setting drought? Atlanta’s water supply in Lake Lanier was drying up (man-made lake). Well, it seems it’s been a soggy spring in the SE this year with weekend plans washed out too often. As for the drought conditions…
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
So much for the hysterics of the talking heads.

UKIPer
June 5, 2009 12:41 pm

Well the Met Office predicted a “BBQ Summer” and yet here we are 2 weeks from midsummer and we have snow in England on the Pennines. A very rare event and there’ll be some interesting pictures about in tomorrow’s papers. So yes Grayuk, the Met Office’s forecast are next to useless. Independent forecasts have confirmed the likelihood for another floody summer with a sunken jet and wave after wave of vile, vomit-inducing cloudy wet days. As usual things are going against the Met with up to 4 inches of rain due in places this weekend, threatening more flooding.

khufy
June 5, 2009 1:07 pm

“Well the Met Office predicted a “BBQ Summer” and yet here we are 2 weeks from midsummer and we have snow in England on the Pennines.”
You have to be kidding me. Were you the only man in england who missed the heat wave we just had? Barbeque weather..in spring. But 3 days of average temperature means that the Met Office is wrong….ahh
Oh and Midsummer isn’t actually “mid summer”. We’ve only had 5 days of summer so far.

June 5, 2009 1:13 pm

skeptic (12:20:59) :

Always a pleasure to see the cherry-picked examples of lower temperatures. Reading this site, one would get the impression that the world is getting colder, and would hardly know that we are in the midst of the hottest decade ever, or that last year was hotter than the average of the previous record holder for the hottest decade ever…

Spoken like a fact-deficient True Believer: click
Notice that global temperatures are about the same as they were in 1979 – 80. The theory of natural climate variability predicts that temperatures will oscillate above and below a gradually increasing trend line from the LIA. That is exactly what’s happening.

George E. Smith
June 5, 2009 1:15 pm

“”” skeptic (12:20:59) :
Always a pleasure to see the cherry-picked examples of lower temperatures. Reading this site, one would get the impression that the world is getting colder, and would hardly know that we are in the midst of the hottest decade ever, or that last year was hotter than the average of the previous record holder for the hottest decade ever (1990s).
BTW, I noticed the NSIDC has resumed reporting arctic ice loss. Sadly, it shows that 2009 loss is well below normal and has almost exceed the record year for this time of year. I remember you had quite a number of posts when it was only a little less than average, and a few more when it went offline. Will you run a few more now that it shows results inconsistent with your hypothesis? “””
Well you need to watch your words anonymous skeptic. We know for absolute certain that planet earth has had periods of ten years (decade) where it was considerably hotter than the last ten years, and would beat the warmest of the last ten yeras in every one of those earlier hotter decade years.
So clearly this is not the hottest decade ever. It very well might be the hottest decade since about 1978 when polar satellites were first launched, and also the Argo buoys were first put out in the ocean.
Prior to that we don’t have any idea what the mean global surface or lower troposphere temperature was; because we never measured it before then.
So you are simply wrong in your assertion. But lets give you the hottest decade since 1978.
Have you ever noticed how high values of a function tend to congregate around the peak of that function. Conversely, numerous studies have also shown that low values of a function tend to congregate around the minimum of that function ? Don’t you think that is odd ? It’s almost like the observations that some of the highest altitudes on the planet can be found up in the mountains.
Weird, if you ask me.

Ubuntu
June 5, 2009 1:20 pm

Climate Progress has moved it WUWT bashing article back to the top of the heap! This isn’t over by a long shot.
Don’t forget to watch The Goode family!
Ubuntu

Ubuntu
June 5, 2009 1:25 pm

Germany has really been sold on this whole global warming thing. Here’ a good chuckle the Goode’s would appreciate.
June 4 (Bloomberg) — Germany’s last glacier, located above the Bavarian resort of Garmisch-Partenkirchen, is getting a protective tarpaulin to help shield it from summer melting.
Ubuntu (left tackle extraordinaire)

James Waters
June 5, 2009 1:28 pm

Alan, it would be great if you could post Dr. Roy Spencer power point presentation that he gave at the ICCC09 conference (3/10)

Mike Abbott
June 5, 2009 1:33 pm

skeptic (12:20:59) :
[…]
BTW, I noticed the NSIDC has resumed reporting arctic ice loss. Sadly, it shows that 2009 loss is well below normal and has almost exceed the record year for this time of year. I remember you had quite a number of posts when it was only a little less than average, and a few more when it went offline. Will you run a few more now that it shows results inconsistent with your hypothesis?

Both sides in the global warming debate overstate the effect of global temperatures on the Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. As another commenter pointed out, regional atmospheric circulation patterns may be the biggest factor. This is acknowledged by the NSIDC, which closes its 6/3/09 Report with this statement:
“Whether or not Arctic sea ice reaches a new record low this summer will depend on the circulation patterns that set up over the next few months.”
(From http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/.)
This was also acknowledged by NASA after the great 2007 summer melt:
“[Dr.] Nghiem said the rapid decline in winter perennial ice the past two years was caused by unusual winds. “Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic,” he said. When that sea ice reached lower latitudes, it rapidly melted in the warmer waters. “The winds causing this trend in ice reduction were set up by an unusual pattern of atmospheric pressure that began at the beginning of this century,” Nghiem said.”
(From: http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/quikscat-20071001.html.)
And:
“A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales. The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming. ”
(From http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/ipy-20071113.html.)
Finally, Anthony has recently posted two excellent animations of changes in Arctic sea ice over time based on satellite imagery. You can see the dramatic effect of the circulation patterns with your own eyes.

DanD
June 5, 2009 1:34 pm

Quote: skeptic
Always a pleasure to see the cherry-picked examples of lower temperatures. Reading this site, one would get the impression that the world is getting colder, and would hardly know that we are in the midst of the hottest decade ever, or that last year was hotter than the average of the previous record holder for the hottest decade ever (1990s).
BTW, I noticed the NSIDC has resumed reporting arctic ice loss. Sadly, it shows that 2009 loss is well below normal and has almost exceed the record year for this time of year. I remember you had quite a number of posts when it was only a little less than average, and a few more when it went offline. Will you run a few more now that it shows results inconsistent with your hypothesis?

I agree with your first notion, skeptic. Considering how many cherry-picked examples we see that fit the AGW agenda, it’s nice to get some to the contrary, along with some well-reasoned analysis of the problems inherent in sea-ice extent measurement and data records.
I for one will keep watching the sea ice record and see what happens in the crucial months of July and August. Minimum extent is what gets the press. Keep in mind that at this time in 2006 there was less ice and the melt speed levelled off substantially compared to 2007. You can see it in the AMSRE graph above.
You’re also completely ignoring Antarctic ice, which is doing just fine, thanks.

June 5, 2009 1:37 pm

For those who missed Przemysław Pawełczyk’s link to it a few days ago on the Lindzen thread, I prepared a post about the RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude plot that many of you would find interesting:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/06/rss-msu-tlt-time-latitude-plots.html
I tried to use one of the figures from it in a comment at ClimateProgress, on the latest post in which Joe Romm attacks the “BREATHAKING ignorance” of WUWT by misspelling breathtaking in his headline. I wonder if Romm sees the humor in that.
But alas! My comment, which I saved, did not make it past Joe Romm’s filter. Each time I try to post a comment there with graphs that show cause and effect, my comment is deleted. Here’s the comment I posted at 12:37PM today (6/6/09) that failed to make it through:
Regarding the well-documented Polar Amplification, refer to RealClimate thread here:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/tropical-troposphere-trends
Real Climate writes, “Whether the warming is from greenhouse gases, El Nino’s, or solar forcing, trends aloft are enhanced. For instance, the GISS model equilibrium runs with 2xCO2 or a 2% increase in solar forcing both show a maximum around 20N to 20S around 300mb (10 km):”
#
The following are two illustrations from the RealClimate thread. The first shows the tropical enhancement and polar amplification for a doubling of CO2 and the second illustrates the same effects for a 2% increase in solar irradiance.
http://i33.tinypic.com/10fu8p2.jpg
http://i38.tinypic.com/w8l4c0.jpg
RealClimate continues: “The first thing to note about the two pictures is how similar they are. They both have the same enhancement in the tropics and similar amplification in the Arctic. They differ most clearly in the stratosphere (the part above 100mb) where CO2 causes cooling while solar causes warming. It’s important to note however, that these are long-term equilibrium results and therefore don’t tell you anything about the signal-to-noise ratio for any particular time period or with any particular forcings.
“If the pictures are very similar despite the different forcings that implies that the pattern really has nothing to do with greenhouse gas changes, but is a more fundamental response to warming (however caused). Indeed, there is a clear physical reason why this is the case – the increase in water vapour as surface air temperature rises causes a change in the moist-adiabatic lapse rate (the decrease of temperature with height) such that the surface to mid-tropospheric gradient decreases with increasing temperature (i.e. it warms faster aloft). This is something seen in many observations and over many timescales, and is not something unique to climate models.”
#####
To create the polar amplification profile illustrated in the above figures in the GCMs, there had to be a doubling of CO2 or a 2% increase in solar irradiance. Neither happened in the last 3 to 4 decades, so what created the polar amplification profile? Real Climate provides the answer. El Nino events.
Since 1976, did we endure a string of El Nino events whose frequency and magnitude greatly outweighed La Nina events? Most assuredly.
And when did polar amplification become evident in the Northern high latitudes? Immediately after the 1997/98 El Nino. It’s very visible in the RSS MSU Time-Latitude plot. I’ll make it easier to see with a time-series graph along side.
http://i42.tinypic.com/e9b04g.jpg
Regards

Frank Mosher
June 5, 2009 1:41 pm

John Finn. You have indicated that you are an expert at predictions. When, exactly, will the UAH global anomaly exceed the .76 recorded for April 1998 ? Plus or minus a month or two would be close enough. Thanks fm

paulID
June 5, 2009 1:44 pm

we need to get this t shirt for Dr Spencer and lief and all the true scientists out there http://www.thinkgeek.com/tshirts-apparel/unisex/sciencemath/ba6a/

Joel Shore
June 5, 2009 1:48 pm

Smokey says:

Notice that temperatures are about the same as they were in 1979 – 80. The theory of natural climate variability predicts that temperatures will oscillate above and below a gradually increasing trend line from the LIA. That is exactly what’s happening.

That’s not a theory…it’s just giving fancy names to observations. Why are we still recovering from the LIA? What evidence do you have for this and what is the mechanism that is leading to this warming?

Kazinski
June 5, 2009 1:52 pm

Always a pleasure to see the cherry-picked examples of lower temperatures.
That is dead on, rather than cherry picking some outlying data point to try to make some bogus point, Steve should be looking at the most current data.
Oh. Nevermind.

June 5, 2009 1:56 pm

For that reason, UAH has been using data from the AQUA satellite MSU, and RSS to my knowledge does not, and makes an adjustment to account for it. I believe our data [UAH] is probably closer to the true anomaly temperature, and if I’m right, we’ll see the two datasets converge again when the diurnal variations are minimized.”
It certainly looks like the data sets are converging now, with a scant difference in May of .047°C and that Dr. Spencer was right.

How is Spencer right, has RSS changed to the Aqua satellite? If RSS are still using their drift compensation method then it would appear by Spencer’s logic that he was not right and that the source of error is not the drift compensation. Or perhaps May was a month with small diurnal variation, anyone know?

KlausB
June 5, 2009 2:02 pm

John Finn (12:25:06) :
[I]…Hadley and GISS anomalies are likely to increase over the next few months with RSS and UAH following suit by the end of the summer….[/I]
End of summer, possible. But for the next one or two month, I’m GISS-ing,
all four may go down a little bit further.
I like to compare UAH MSU (Global, Sea) to Pacific WWV from TAO.
The warm water volume does cange direction from month to month only
slightly, so accumulation will be for two more month.
Pacific Warm Water Volume vs. UAH MSU (Global, Sea), here:
http://i39.tinypic.com/20u5u8m.jpg

Peter Hearnden
June 5, 2009 2:03 pm

UKIPer (12:41:31) :
Well the Met Office predicted a “BBQ Summer” and yet here we are 2 weeks from midsummer and we have snow in England on the Pennines. A very rare event and there’ll be some interesting pictures about in tomorrow’s papers. So yes Grayuk, the Met Office’s forecast are next to useless. Independent forecasts have confirmed the likelihood for another floody summer with a sunken jet and wave after wave of vile, vomit-inducing cloudy wet days. As usual things are going against the Met with up to 4 inches of rain due in places this weekend, threatening more flooding.

C’mon man (?) don’t hide behind your UKIP political banner!
Fact is the Met office is doing very well with it’s forecasts, that the rain atm is very localised (as in any high hills snow). Readers here need to know that and not be inadvertently misled.
Wrt the summer just started, it looks as if another (we’ve all ready seen warm weather this June) warm spell is on the card by next weekend. My advice is to not make it so obvious you’re getting you retaliation in early while we’re between hot spells ;).

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