(From PhysOrg.com h/t to Leif Svalgaard) — The recent warming trend in the Atlantic Ocean is largely due to reductions in airborne dust and volcanic emissions during the past 30 years, according to a new study.
A new study by UW-Madison researcher Amato Evan shows that variability of African dust storms and tropical volcanic eruptions can account for 70 percent of the warming North Atlantic Ocean temperatures observed during the past three decades. Since warmer water is a key ingredient in hurricane formation and intensity, dust and other airborne particles will play a critical role in developing a better understanding of these storms in a changing climate.
Since 1980, the tropical North Atlantic has been warming by an average of a quarter-degree Celsius (a half-degree Fahrenheit) per decade. Though this number sounds small, it can translate to big impacts on hurricanes, which thrive on warmer water, says Amato Evan, a researcher with the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies and lead author of the new study. For example, the ocean temperature difference between 1994, a quiet hurricane year, and 2005’s record-breaking year of storms, was just one degree Fahrenheit.
More than two-thirds of this upward trend in recent decades can be attributed to changes in African dust storm and tropical volcano activity during that time, report Evan and his colleagues at UW-Madison and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in a new paper. Their findings will appear in an upcoming issue of the journal Science and publish online March 26.
Evan and his colleagues have previously shown that African dust and other airborne particles can suppress hurricane activity by reducing how much sunlight reaches the ocean and keeping the sea surface cool. Dusty years predict mild hurricane seasons, while years with low dust activity — including 2004 and 2005 — have been linked to stronger and more frequent storms.
In the new study, they combined satellite data of dust and other particles with existing climate models to evaluate the effect on ocean temperature. They calculated how much of the Atlantic warming observed during the last 26 years can be accounted for by concurrent changes in African dust storms and tropical volcanic activity, primarily the eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991.
In fact, it is a surprisingly large amount, Evan says. “A lot of this upward trend in the long-term pattern can be explained just by dust storms and volcanoes,” he says. “About 70 percent of it is just being forced by the combination of dust and volcanoes, and about a quarter of it is just from the dust storms themselves.”
The result suggests that only about 30 percent of the observed Atlantic temperature increases are due to other factors, such as a warming climate. While not discounting the importance of global warming, Evan says this adjustment brings the estimate of global warming impact on Atlantic more into line with the smaller degree of ocean warming seen elsewhere, such as the Pacific.
“This makes sense, because we don’t really expect global warming to make the ocean [temperature] increase that fast,” he says.
Volcanoes are naturally unpredictable and thus difficult to include in climate models, Evan says, but newer climate models will need to include dust storms as a factor to accurately predict how ocean temperatures will change.
“We don’t really understand how dust is going to change in these climate projections, and changes in dust could have a really good effect or a really bad effect,” he says.
Satellite research of dust-storm activity is relatively young, and no one yet understands what drives dust variability from year to year. However, the fundamental role of the temperature of the tropical North Atlantic in hurricane formation and intensity means that this element will be critical to developing a better understanding of how the climate and storm patterns may change.
“Volcanoes and dust storms are really important if you want to understand changes over long periods of time,” Evan says. “If they have a huge effect on ocean temperature, they’re likely going to have a huge effect on hurricane variability as well.”
Source: University of Wisconsin-Madison (news : web)
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Wasn’t there another study done that concluded that the wind shear over warmer water prevented hurricanes from forming as often?
With this protracted minimum shrinking the crust and popping off more volcanoes, the dust should return.
Rock holds back the magma, and if it cools only a bit, it’s brittleness increases.
Wow !!!! This is great !!!!
“…A new study by UW-Madison researcher Amato Evan shows that variability of African dust storms and tropical volcanic eruptions can account for 70 percent of the warming North Atlantic Ocean temperatures observed during the past three decades. ..”. Given that IPCC data goes back to about 1975, how do Gore and Hanson handle this ??? Is there a way to buy/sell “dust cap and trade” credits ?
What are some of the theorized and known forces which can cause increased volcanic activity ?
I can’t agree that the 2005 Hurricane season derived from the thermal energy of a 1F SST increase.
My guess is that 2005 arises from the relationship between Gulf loop current/ Eastern Gulf upwelling/perturbation and subsequent TC intensities. My list of Loop Current crossers (hurricanes only): 1998-Earl (minimal Hurricane) Georges-(the unheeded warning to NO-75 miles east of being Katrina) 1999-Brett (not really a loop storm but I am in a generous mood); 2000 Gordon (lame-o storm); 2001-None; 2002-Lilli (long tracker-western edge of loop); 2003-Claudette (even further west-See Brett); 2004-Charley (freak meso-more of a blowup in the hot shallows of FL Gulf Coast), Ivan-tips off the loop current barrage in 2005 with Katrina, Rita, Wilma (I stayed up all night in disbelief watching this pinhole). If you really want to get picky, you go from 1998 to 2004, Ivan, before an intense cyclone taps the really hot water of the Eastern Gulf. When the steering currents finally started dumping closed circulations into the eastern gulf at the end of 2004, the SST was way hot and probably deeply saturated. The 2004-2005 blowup was focused regionally in the eastern Gulf which probably not coincidently was an unplowed, overheated, fertile breeding ground for some high energy events.
Sorry to be a little off topic, but I just couldn’t hold back. Our commander in chief is already laying the BS (bad science) on thick.
Just complete and utter BS!
2 degrees would make NO difference what so ever! This is so utterly pathetic! It just makes me ill.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080124115808.htm
I knew I had read that somewhere.
Interestingly enough, although warmer weather destroys hurricanes by cutting them to pieces, colder weather does too?
Just curious, could the thing starting the dust storms simply ‘miss’ the Atlantic, and hit Africa instead, kicking up a dust storm?
Sorry, the science is settled. Please stop with this disinformation campaign. Play no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Ohioholic (19:52:20) :
Wind shear shreds hurricanes apart. El Ninos increase shear over the Atlantic
and have nearly stopped activity mid-season.
Dust acts two ways. First is the solar dimming mentioned above that leads to lower SSTs. Second is the sunlight blocked by dust warms the atomosphere reducing convection of surface level air. Dust has the biggest impact on the Cape Vered hurricanes that form of the African coast and have the longest fetch where they can intensify.
A possible correlation betwee solar and volcanic activity in an long term scale:
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?2003ESASP.535..393S&data_type=PDF_HIGH&whole_paper=YES&type=PRINTER&filetype=.pdf
Make note of the conclusion (a). It is most interesting…..
My question is are we going to be seeing the increased volcanic activity soon?
I think so.
So the solution to this great threat of Arctic melting would be to nuke Africa. I’m sure that will be a great relief to many people.
Ignoring the foregoing distasteful posts on here (I won’t mention any names AnonyMoose)…we move on….and back to topic:
“Ric Werme wrote: Dust acts two ways. First is the solar dimming mentioned above that leads to lower SSTs. Second is the sunlight blocked by dust warms the atomosphere reducing convection of surface level air. Dust has the biggest impact on the Cape Verde hurricanes that form of the African coast and have the longest fetch where they can intensify.”
And so, without hurricanes to transport heat to the upper latitudes to balance out the Earth, some regions become a desert.
If people would realize that the real enemy here is cooling and not warming, where the temperatures turn more windy, drier, and more dusty, all of the AGW concerns would evaporate into thin stratospheric air like ozone in the arctic winter/night.
Chris
Norfolk, VA
Obama’s comments from Squidly’s post:
“If you look at the flooding that’s going on right now in North Dakota and you say to yourself, ‘If you see an increase of 2 degrees, what does that do, in terms of the situation there?’ ” the president told the reporters. “That indicates the degree to which we have to take this seriously.”
Today in Fargo the high/low temp was 23/15F with snow, according to MSN weather. March averages are reported to be 37/19F. Not seeing that much of an increase there, Pres “based on the facts” Obama.
“What are some of the theorized and known forces which can cause increased volcanic activity ?”
Styrofoam. The earth is increasingly becoming covered in a layer of polystyrene dust. This acts as an insulation layer and allows the underlying rock to heat up and eventually erupt as a volcano. All the Styrofoam is accumulating in the environment and changing the heat transfer from Earth’s core to the surface.
So effective immediately many places are going to institute a 600% tax on Styrofoam and house to house searches for the stuff. All homes, businesses, safe deposit boxes, vehicles, and anyplace else they can think of will be subject to a national search and all Styrofoam products found will be confiscated. Computers will also be searched to determine if a citizen is in possession of any material on how to make the dreaded substance. Of course, any other contraband found in the course of the search may also be confiscated at the same time. Some might consider this a slight inconvenience, it is a small price to pay to rid our nation of that killer Styrofoam. Think of the children!
Dust increases when SST’s turn cold, setting up the negative oscillation pattern that brings colder, dryer air onto land surfaces. The trade wind starts this negative oscillation, eventually leading to dust bowl conditions over land. The dust, blown over oceans, is a key component of plankton bloom and replenished marine food sources during the negative oscillation.
The past 30 years (not counting the last few years) of positive oceanic oscillations and low trade wind strength brought growing conditions to land surfaces but resulted in a decrease in marine life. The opposite should soon happen. The land loses growing capacity due to cold and drought but the increased trade winds and dust fertilizes the oceans in their rebirth. It appears we are the true environmentalists who have been calling this warm period nature’s natural swings and we shouldn’t be foolin around with it! Yes, decrease soot, mercury and other dangerous pollutions, but leave CO2 alone!
Off topic (or maybe not):
“Hungry shrimp eat climate change experiment”
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16842-hungry-shrimp-eat-climate-change-experiment.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
climate variations should no be easily explainable with enso, solar and volcanic activity, leaving the contribution of greenhouse gases around zero.
though greenhouse gases are not completely unimportant, as they helped to increase food production all around the globe.
finally, some people in oslo should consider this, and offer their peace price to suv drivers or other individuals with unprecedented carbon footprints (like al gore), who generously helped to feed the world population. i have seen worse nominations.
Squidly:
As long as I can remember, the Red River has been flooding. I myself took several pictures of Winnipeg from the air showing what an incredible river it is, and how insane it is to build around it.
It is, or should be, a no-brainer that this river will flood. Just take a look at the incredible number of twists and turns, and even following it via the current pictures on Google Earth you can see flooding adjacent to it. It’s a LOT of water twisting through a very flat area.
A few years ago Manitoba experienced some devastating flooding, and did a lot of river management. I wish ND had spent more time and $$$ on the same.
And I agree: whenever I hear someone point the accusing finger of “global warming” or “climate change” at something that is just horribly mismanaged, it makes me ill. Why didn’t they FIX the problems, like would have been done a few generations ago? Same as water management everywhere: when you build big cities you need dams for water. But no, “we” don’t build many dams anymore. Then when things go wrong we can blame everything EXCEPT the root cause of the problem… failure to act.
Yea verily, saith the voodoo scientists: “Everything affects global climate! Burning stuff! Blowing stuff! Volcanic stuff! Flowing stuff! Growing stuff! Frozen stuff! Spots! Clouds! Cosmic rays! Wobbling orbits! Stuff from aerosol cans! White roofs! Black roofs! Floating Styrofoam cups! Cow farts!”
Does the expression “Chasing your own tail” ring a bell with anyone? Somewhere among the possibilities for what appears to be a self-limiting, chaotic system are a few dominant choices and I seriously doubt that either “manmade CO2” or “blowing dust” is among them.
So if you green Africa by encouraging reforestation efforts, you’re likely to see an increase in hurricane activity. But if you encourage continued desertification, it will result in fewer/weaker hurricanes hitting North America?
If this is true then it has to be yet another nail in the coffin of AGW. The more complex and numerous the factors governing climate are, the more spurious and inadequate it makes the warmists arguments seem.
I don’t have a problem with that. 😀
……but the Argo’s are trending down, Josh Willis is prob in an uncomefortable place right now, and will have to admit ocean cooling over the last few years? See Pielke Sr website
?????
hi,
this article seems to fit with some recent articles i have read ( one or two as leads from this site) that when the ( angular) velocity of the earth increases ( and the length of day shortens) due to increased solar actvity then there is a corresponding increase in temperature. the other factors involved are the corresponding increases in atmospheric pressures and wind speeds ( from a faster rtotating earth), both of these necessary i presume to carry large amounts of dust particles.
The authors themselves were suggesting feedback mechanisms that could do this, the above -dust particles warming the oceans -seems to be an example of what they had’nt mentioned in their papers.
lastly they also suggested the increased spin and friction of the atmosphere against the earth could lead to increased volcanic activity.
one recent paper that mentions the above phenomenon is ( it has been mentioned recently but it also contains a lot of references to other papers )The Sun’s Role in Regulating the Earth’s Climate Dynamics
Author: Mackey, Richard
Source: Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, January 2009 , pp. 25-73(49)
about a quarterof the way through is the stuff mentioned above
Thanks for the find, Leif.
Another BIG part of the variability should be the tropical North Atlantic’s response to ENSO. Give me a few minutes to plot it. I’ll be back.
The full title of the paper is “The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies.”
Link to abstract:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1167404
It reads: “Observations and models demonstrate that northern tropical Atlantic surface temperatures are sensitive to regional changes in stratospheric volcanic and tropospheric mineral aerosols. However, it is unknown if the temporal variability of these aerosols is a key factor in the evolution of ocean temperature anomalies. Here, we elucidate this question by using 26 years of satellite data to drive a simple physical model for estimating the temperature response of the ocean mixed layer to changes in aerosol loadings. Our results suggest that 69% of the recent upward trend, and 67% of the detrended and 5-year low pass filtered variance, in northern tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures is the mixed layer’s response to regional variability in aerosols.”
Supplemental Material Link:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/data/1167404/DC1/1
Squidly (20:28:16) :
Sorry to be a little off topic, but I just couldn’t hold back. Our commander in chief is already laying the BS (bad science) on thick.
Obama: Red River flooding is wakeup call to fight global warming
President Obama used the flooding in the Red River Valley to insist that society needs to take global warming seriously.
Are we talking about the same Dakota which recently had record low temps and huge winter snowfall?
Just checking.
Completely OT
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25251689-12377,00.html
Reminds me of the Monty Python skit – “bring out your dead” – in fact Ithink I’m getting better…
Regards
Michael