I had written back in July 2008 about the 10.7cm solar radio flux hitting a new record low value. Part of that has to do with the inverse square law and the distance of the earth to the sun, which is at a maximum at the summer solstice. As you can see below there has been a very gradual rise since then as we approached the winter solstice. David Archibald provides an update below and compares our current period to other solar cycles. – Anthony
UPDATE: In comments, Leif Svalgaard offers his graph, and also speaks of the flatlining. See below the “read more” – Anthony
The graph above is of two year windows of the F 10.7 radio flux centered on the last five solar minima. They are stacked up so that they are 20 solar flux units apart on the same vertical scale. The original data is from: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsolarradio.html#qbsa
That site notes:
“The quiet sun level is the flux density which would be observed in the absence of activity. Extrapolation to zero of plots of the 10.7cm flux against other activity indices such as plage area or total photospheric magnetic flux in active regions suggest a quiet sun flux density of about 64 s.f.u. This is rarely attained.” The lowest daily value in this minimum to date was 64.5 in June 2008.
What is evident is that this minimum is quite different from the previous four in that the intra-monthly amplitude has died from June 2008. The monthly average low was July 2008 and the series has been in uptrend at 0.7 units/month thereafter. This is a very weak but very consistent uptrend, perhaps the first sign of a rising Solar Cycle 24. There is very little noise in this signal, suggesting a very weak Solar Cycle 24.
– David Archibald
UPDATE: Leif Svalgaard writes in comments:
As part of my ‘homework’ for the Sunspot Panel [2 years ago] I produced a short document
http://www.leif.org/research/When%20is%20Minimum.pdf
comparing F10.7 and MgII [another solar index] around minima. I have updated the graph in the document to show the flat-lining of F10.7.
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Just a forewarning here to commenters.
The last solar thread eroded into a chaotic system with comments about nearly everything else under the sun.
This thread will be different, because I’m going to start deleting widely OT posts. If it has something at all to do with the sun, it is fair game. if it is about anything else, it’s bit bucket because wordpress.com free hosting has no move function.
I’m going to work up a permanent OT thread page for people that want to discuss other things or need to bring something to my attention. – Anthony
How are the different graphs of the flux from each cycle aligned in the above graph?
“This is a very weak but very consistent uptrend, perhaps the first sign of a rising Solar Cycle 24”
We have had this issue before. When discussing solar activity the ‘adjusted’ F10.7 values should be used, not the ‘observed’. The ‘consistent uptrend’ is simply because the Earth was moving closer to the Sun. The correct trend [from a solar view] is on page 5 of http://www.leif.org/research/Most%20Recent%20IMF,%20SW,%20and%20Solar%20Data.pdf
A more detailed view is here [the pink curve]: http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
This graph is updated every few days.
If the AP prediction does go down to 3 as per David Archibald’s post, although if I’m reading your graph right the 10.7 flux shows a small but relatively steady increase; overall, this is not happy news.
Any predictions on how long this ‘solar slump’ might last?
REPLY: note my comment about Earth’s orbit and inverse square law. – Anthony
On the sunny side of things it’s about time Anthony, some of the comments are mindbogglingly,
in response,
Moving through space our solar system perhaps is now beginning to respond to more powerful galactic energies on a electro gravitational bias, the sun, as it has done for hundreds of millions of years, is responding to outside forces, this would obviously impose changes on almost every level of solar energy output .
@ur momisugly David Archibald
Do you see a connection to weak solar activity and the recent intense SSW event over the North Pole?
Does the Solar Flux affects the Earth?
And how much time it takes to reach Earth?
Thnx
Anthony, good policy.
Dave, great post.
This post strongly confirms those who have been predicting an imminent solar minima of some scope. I would like to hear from the “deniers” about whether they are ready to adjust their expectations as a result of this data, or do they still see reasons to doubt that a minima is upon us.
And, what will the climate consequences be?
wattsupwiththat (07:49:34) :
Doesn’t this reflect the chaotic nature of our climate?
🙂
Is there a way to remove the annual orbital effects noted – thus normalizing the data?
The sun is behaving quite strangely. None of the solar physicists seem to have foreseen this turn of events, particularly the NASA affiliated sp’s.
If this trend continues, Dutch children may be able to skate the canals year round.
How many cycles have solar physicists been measuring this parameter and hence how strong is the correlation between extended weak signal and low amplitude of next solar maximum?
As part of my ‘homework’ for the Sunspot Panel [2 years ago] I produced a short document http://www.leif.org/research/When%20is%20Minimum.pdf comparing F10.7 and MgII [another solar index] around minima. I have updated the graph in the document to show the flat-lining of F10.7.
Jeff L (08:54:50) :
Is there a way to remove the annual orbital effects noted – thus normalizing the data?
Yes, you multiply by the square of the distance to the Sun. The normalized value is also given each day by the data provider.
Al Fin (09:04:04) :
The sun is behaving quite strangely. None of the solar physicists seem to have foreseen this turn of events
Several solar physicists have predicted [several years ago] that cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in a hundred years. From this perspective, the Sun is just doing its thing.
Rhys Jaggar (09:11:21) :
How many cycles have solar physicists been measuring this parameter and hence how strong is the correlation between extended weak signal and low amplitude of next solar maximum?
Since 1947 [so 5 or 6 cycles]. For so few cycles the correlation is necessarily weak, but expected. Similar indices [CaII, sunspots] go back many more cycles and show a similar correlation.
the_Butcher (08:39:01) :
Does the Solar Flux affects the Earth?
No
And how much time it takes to reach Earth?
8 minutes
“I’m going to work up a permanent OT thread page for people that want to discuss other things or need to bring something to my attention.”
Consider monthly OT articles, so they don’t get too long and they can be found in the archives around the start of each month. A link to the previous thread would be helpful. If an OT articles gets “too full” start a new one at any time. And starting a new OT article provides a speed bump for less significant threads.
And the intro for an OT article gives you an excuse to show the crows roosting on your Stephenson screens, or whatever struck your fancy.
the_Butcher,
the Solar Flux, represented by the 10.7cm wavelength, is a PROXY for the overall output of the sun that DOES affect the earth. Leif is correct of course, BUT, what it represents is a lower radiance on the earth that DOES affect us. How much effect for the recorded change is under heated debate even without including hypothesized indirect influences.
Leif,
Does the Solar Flux affects the Earth?
No
Hmm, 10.7 cm Radio Flux has influence on distribution of radio signals. Otherwise
the ‘sparkies’ wouldn’t be that interested in it.
So, maybe, the best answer would be: Generally no, with the excetpion of some sparkies reach.
Anyway, reading always all yours postings which much interest.
Keep on posting.
I imagine the data didn’t look much different going into the Maunder Minimum.
I feel like saying “Interesting” like Spock would do just before the Enterprise was about to be destroyed by something he hadn’t seen before.
Anthony,
could we use IDLING instead of FLATLINED???
Flatlined indicates no signal or DEAD!!! IDLE represents minimum output mode, which would appear to be more appropriate even if it turns out the sun can go to a lower level of output.
REPLY: Seems like a more representative term. Next post on the subject that is what I’ll use. – Anthony
AnonyMoose (09:57:55) :
“Consider monthly OT articles, so they don’t get too long and they can be found in the archives around the start of each month.”
Why not weekly? Considering the volume on this blog, especially the off-topic volume, weekly sounds just about right. Incidentally, in an attempt to keep this post ‘on-topic,’ let me suggest that Ptolemy can explain more than just how the Earth relates to the Sun.
I wonder how many epicycles would be needed to draw a hockey stick.
KlausB (10:11:17) :
“Does the Solar Flux affects the Earth?
No”
Hmm, 10.7 cm Radio Flux has influence on distribution of radio signals. Otherwise the ’sparkies’ […]
Still, no. But the solar radio flux is correlated with a lot of other solar activity indicators, and those have an influence. So the ‘sparkies’ look to the flux as a sort of ‘barometer’ for ionospheric conditions.
Since the discussion here is solar and ostensibly how solar influences may affect Earth’s climate – I again post the Raspopov paper demonstrating correlation between de Vries cycles and climate.
http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications/Raspopov_2008_PPP.pdf
While it has been pointed out that periodicity of this kind may be found in chaotic data sets, Raspopov et al’s phase shifted waveforms do show correlation at (R2=0.58–0.94). Causing the authors to conclude:
“The climate response to long-term solar activity variations (from 10s to 1000s years) manifests itself in different climatic
parameters, such as temperature, precipitation and atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The climate response to the de Vries cycle has
been found to occur not only during the last millennia but also in earlier epochs, up to hundreds of millions years ago.”
We’re all travelers along for the ride as the sun does it’s “thing”… let’s hope it’s “thing” isn’t going to be catastrophic for us travelers. I can’t imagine what the hundreds of millions of people in the northern hemisphere are going to do if we’re coming upon the beginning of a little ice age… or worse. 🙁
Is there a theoretical “floor” for the 10.7 cm emission?
From a quick look at other sources, it looks like 10.7 emissions effect the virtual height of the F layer of the ionosphere, and electron density in the ionosphere, and serves as an “objective” measuring stick for general solar activity and magnetic complexity, without the subjective issues counting sunspots and computing sunspot numbers involve.
Is there an direct correlation between 10.7 emissions and Total Solar Irradiance, or is that association simply implied by the correlation between sunspot numbers and irradiance, and the correspondence between 10.7 emissions and sunspot numbers ?
To rephrase that, if you have a 10.7 emission number can you with any confidence predict the total solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere ?
Larry