Meier of NSIDC on melt: “it’s not going to make it to the North Pole”


Current image from Terra Satellite, rotated 90 degrees to improve view, plus annotation and world view inset added by Anthony

Source image is available here at the NASA Terra website

North Pole to remain frozen

Originally published 02:57 p.m., August 29, 2008
Updated 02:57 p.m., August 29, 2008

Santa can rest easy.

It’s looking like the ice at the North Pole won’t melt to water next month, as had been feared. It would have been the first time in thousands of years that the most northerly place on the planet would have been ice-free.

“It’s quite unlikely at this point,” Walt Meier a research scientist at the University of Colorado’s National Snow and Ice Data Center, said today.

The ice in the Arctic Ocean is at near historic lows, and breaks records every couple of years due to human-caused global warming, the scientists at NSIDC say.

This spring, it was looking like the ice might retreat so far that the North Pole itself would be ice-free for at least a day in September – the height of the ice-melt season.

The chances were great enough that the scientists at NSIDC were laying almost even odds on it in an office pool.

But while global warming is playing an important role, seasonal variability does, too. And this summer turned out to be a little cooler than last summer, when the record for ice retreat was set, Meier said.

“We only have about two or three weeks more of ice melt, and it’s not going to make it to the North Pole,” Meier said.

Read the rest of the article here

About these ads
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

73 Responses to Meier of NSIDC on melt: “it’s not going to make it to the North Pole”

  1. Ed Scott says:

    Maybe The North Polar Ice Cap will not melt this year, but the high priest of global destruction said in his speech at the DNC Convention: “Oil company profits have soared to record levels, gasoline prices have gone through the roof and we are more dependent than ever on dirty and dangerous fossil fuels. Many scientists predict that the entire North Polar ice cap may be completely gone during summer months in the first term of the next President. Sea levels are rising, fires are raging, storms are stronger. Military experts warn us our national security is threatened by massive waves of climate refugees destabilizing countries around the world, and scientists tell us the very web of life is endangered by unprecedented extinctions.”

    Good and bad news related to the melting of the North Polar Ice Cap. The good news is that petroleum exploration and drilling will be facilitated. The bad news is the potential damage to Santa’s Toys for Tots factory.

    Question: Who uses more “dirty and dangerous fossil fuel” than the high Priest?

  2. Matt Lague says:

    So do we get an update on the guy paddling his kayak to the pole? Or has he packed it in? Could always convert it to a sled and press on? Is there a journalist out there who can follow up on that one? Matty, Perth

  3. Leon Brozyna says:

    Now that I quite cropping the image of the NSIDC daily graph of the melt progress, I don’t get so much jiggling when I scroll through the images since mid-month. That melt line looks like it’s getting very close to last year’s melt. If it hits, you can be sure we’ll hear all about it, even though it’s the warm waters coming into the Arctic from the Atlantic that’s doing much of the damage and not the myth of warm air {even Meier described the air this year as cooler than last}.

  4. Steve Sadlov says:

    First time in a thousand years? I think not.

  5. RobJM says:

    Has anyone thought THC/global conveyor/gulf stream could be responsible for climate change. I should work like a radiator/engine system. the equator has maximum heat and insulation, so the faster the energy flows to the high latitudes the more cooler the system runs. The radiator gets hotter though. It would explain why the arctic ice melted while global temps started cooling. It could also explain la nina/el nino and ice ages. The heat transfer would also enable those massive glacial ice sheet to form in a cool and dry ice age environment while making south east europe inhabitable for all those neanderthals!

  6. Steven Hill says:

    “The ice in the Arctic Ocean is at near historic lows, and breaks records every couple of years due to human-caused global warming, the scientists at NSIDC say.”

    WOW, what power us humans have to destroy the entire world! Kaboom! And to destroy it with the same gas that we exhale…..I guess it’s all a path of evolution. Too much exhaling and on with the next spices. What a joke.

  7. Bill in Vigo says:

    Off topic here but at 7:43 pm central daylight time the Weather Chanel announced that one of their scientist had a study on going that discovered the human finger print of AGW on the number and strength of the tropical storms this year due to the excessive heat in the oceans due to warming. Here we go again. Don’t ya love it when a plan hatches. I wonder at the audacity of these people and their claims.

    Bill Derryberry

  8. AnyMouse says:

    the first time in thousands of years

    Oh, so it was warmer only some thousands of years ago? And we survived?

  9. FatBigot says:

    I’m a bit sketchy on geography. Is that north pole place anywhere near Boston Massachusetts? My corpulent frame will be conveyed to Heathrow airport tomorrow for onward transmission to Boston and then Mystic & Noank Connecticut. Assuming that is the same general area as the north pole, please arrange for the ice to take a small rest, ten days should do it (assuming I’m allowed into the country now that I have been “outed” as a sceptic). Thank you.

  10. Katherine says:

    It would have been the first time in thousands of years that the most northerly place on the planet would have been ice-free.

    You mean like this?

    HMS Superb, USS Billfish, and USS Sea Devil in a North Pole rendezvous in 1987

    Towards the end of the article, Meier states:
    “To recover to the ice levels of the 1980s would require many years in a row of cool conditions, and that isn’t going to happened under global warming conditions.”

    Yeah, right. That picture was from 1987. It looks like there’s a lot more ice now than then.

  11. H says:

    “We only have about two or three weeks more of ice melt, and it’s not going to make it to the North Pole,” Meier said.

    Do I detect a degree of regret or sadness that the melt wouldn’t go as far as they had predicted/hoped/”feared”?

  12. Robert Austin says:

    Don’t you love how they claim historic lows and breaking records but neglect to mention that their history and records only go back to 1979, only a period of about 30 years. The last time the PDO flipped (other than the recent flip) was in 1977, a few years before the beginning of official recorded history. They claim the Northwest Passage will soon be open to shipping for the first time in “history”. I guess the wooden RCMP schooner St. Roche sailing though the Northwest Passage from west to east in one season in 1944 was just a fairy tale.

  13. evanjones says:

    (assuming I’m allowed into the country now that I have been “outed” as a sceptic).

    Probably a higher percent in the US than where you come from . . .

    Although i think it has less to do with scientific knowledge and more nonacceptance of gas prices.

  14. statePoet1775 says:

    evanjones, are you even Evan Jones?

  15. old construction worker says:

    ‘the first time in thousands of years’ Sorry, I didn’t get the memo, what did man do 1000 years to cause AGW ?

  16. John Nicklin says:

    At least we’ve gone from “never before in human history” to “first time in thousands of years.”

  17. David Gladstone says:

    Yes, Bill in Vigo, I saw that, it was outrageous. They showed some kind of graph that supposedly proved Global warming was responsible for snow in China and floods in India and the long track of Fay over Florida. The idiot took a balloon and squeezed it to show how high pressure was made stationary by warming! The weather channel is really a joke.

  18. Lucy says:

    So the North Pole was thawed in 1987, the Northwest passage open in 1944, and there are indeed plenty of words for “robin” in the Inuit languages.

    Is anybody keeping count or a file of these, um, lies by the media? They seem to be piling up faster than and iceberg melting into the Titantic.

  19. Jeff Alberts says:

    “Oil company profits have soared to record levels, gasoline prices have gone through the roof and we are more dependent than ever on dirty and dangerous fossil fuels. Many scientists predict that the entire North Polar ice cap may be completely gone during summer months in the first term of the next President. Sea levels are rising, fires are raging, storms are stronger. Military experts warn us our national security is threatened by massive waves of climate refugees destabilizing countries around the world, and scientists tell us the very web of life is endangered by unprecedented extinctions.”

    We can only hope. Then we won’t have to hear any more of this complete garbage.

  20. Jeff Alberts says:

    Now that I quite cropping the image of the NSIDC daily graph of the melt progress, I don’t get so much jiggling when I scroll through the images since mid-month. That melt line looks like it’s getting very close to last year’s melt. If it hits, you can be sure we’ll hear all about it, even though it’s the warm waters coming into the Arctic from the Atlantic that’s doing much of the damage and not the myth of warm air {even Meier described the air this year as cooler than last}.

    So many polar bears must have died already this year. The Arctic ocean must simply be littered with their corpses. No? Really? None at all? Dammit! I’ll have to get another SUV!

  21. yojoe says:

    Al Gore told me that all the ice would be gone by the beginning of the next presidential term. How could he be wrong?

  22. Ted Annonson says:

    Notice how it realy melted faster this past week. Think it might have had something to do with all the “hot air” rising out of Denver?

  23. Phil. says:

    Robert Austin (19:03:46) :
    “I guess the wooden RCMP schooner St. Roche sailing though the Northwest Passage from west to east in one season in 1944 was just a fairy tale.”/em>

    Since it didn’t happen it fits my definition of a fairy tale!

  24. Janama says:

    sorry Phil but Wiki disagrees with you.

    “In 1940, Canadian RCMP officer Henry Larsen was the second to sail the passage, crossing west to east, from Vancouver to Halifax. More than once on this trip, it was unknown whether the St. Roch a Royal Canadian Mounted Police “ice-fortified” schooner would survive the ravages of the sea ice. At one point, Larsen wondered “if we had come this far only to be crushed like a nut on a shoal and then buried by the ice.” The ship and all but one of her crew survived the winter on Boothia Peninsula. Each of the men on the trip was awarded a medal by Canada’s sovereign, King George VI, in recognition of this notable feat of Arctic navigation.

    Later in 1944, Larsen’s return trip was far more swift than his first; the 28 months he took on his first trip was significantly reduced, setting the mark for having traversed it in a single season. The ship followed a more northerly partially uncharted route, and it also had extensive upgrades.”

  25. John Riddell says:

    Matt Lague said

    “So do we get an update on the guy paddling his kayak to the pole? Or has he packed it in? Could always convert it to a sled and press on? Is there a journalist out there who can follow up on that one?”

    For an update go to:

    http://www.lewispugh.com/expeditions.html

    Lewis Pugh (the kayaker) said

    “On 30 August I will attempt to kayak from the Island of Spitsbergen (in Northern Europe) across the Arctic Ocean into the Arctic ice pack. I am undertaking the expedition to highlight the dramatic melting of the sea ice.
    This year the ice is the thinnest on record.”

    So he is leaving tomorrow. Note: He is only saying he is going to the Arctic ice pack.

  26. RayB says:

    “The proliferation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from auto emissions, coal plants and the like is making the Arctic Ocean less resistant to the warm periods.”

    What about icebreakers?

    Another study this week reported that coal emissions and particulate deposits were greatest at the beginning of the 20th century. Why the ice did not melt back then?

  27. Matt Lague says:

    John Riddell says,

    Lewis Pugh, British kayaker will attempt to “paddle from Spitzbergen to the arctic icepack to draw attention to the thinnest ice on record”. But a month ago it was all about paddling to the north pole. “Failure will mean success” Pugh said. How the goal posts have moved. Matty, Perth

  28. T’other Lucy Is anybody keeping count or a file of these, um, lies by the media? They seem to be piling up faster than and iceberg melting into the Titantic.

    Know this funny one? Various websites like New Scientist “refute” the classic skeptic arguments and Climate Skeptic has refuted that particular set. If skeptics could have one place to refer warmists to, for instant corrections of misinformation, that would be nice. I’m thinking about it.

  29. Denis Hopkins says:

    not sure if this link went through so am trying again….
    this is a news article in all the sunday papers here in Uk today
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/08/30/eapolar130.xml

    Polar bears lost at sea as their ice berg melted

  30. anonymous says:

    Has anyone thought that the reason there is so little ice in the North pole is cause those damn submarines keep breaking it !!

  31. John Riddell (22:11:57) :

    Matt Lague said

    “So do we get an update on the guy paddling his kayak to the pole? Or has he packed it in? Could always convert it to a sled and press on? Is there a journalist out there who can follow up on that one?”

    For an update go to:

    http://www.lewispugh.com/expeditions.html

    Lewis Pugh (the kayaker) said

    “On 30 August I will attempt to kayak from the Island of Spitsbergen (in Northern Europe) across the Arctic Ocean into the Arctic ice pack. I am undertaking the expedition to highlight the dramatic melting of the sea ice.
    This year the ice is the thinnest on record.”

    So he is leaving tomorrow. Note: He is only saying he is going to the Arctic ice pack

    Here is an article from the biggest Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten July 28 about this guy
    http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/article2563654.ece

    The article is in Norwegian, a Google translation is possible, but it doesn’t do a very good job.

    The headline means “Will paddle to the North Pole”

    and below

    “The south african adventurer Lewis Gordon Pugh (38) wishes to become the first to paddle to the North Pole”

    So I think it is fair to say that the goal is the North Pole, not just the Ice Pack (which isn’t far from where he is now (Svalbard).

    Btw. on his blog he explains that he has visited Svalbard each year for the last six years. He has probably arrived by airplane each time.

  32. From the article:
    29. august i år starter Pugh med kajakk fra et av de nordligste stedene på Svalbard, og skal padle de ca. 1200 kilometerne til Nordpolen. Eventyreren har fått eksperthjelp og de har kommet frem til at det skal være svært lite eller ingen is på strekningen.

    My translation: “On the 29th of august this year, Pugh will kayak from one of the northernmost places on Svalbard, and will paddle the ~1200km to the North Pole. The adventurer has received expert help and they have concluded that there will be very little or no ice along the way”.

  33. Jack Simmons says:

    Here’s another link to the journal being kept by the north pole kayaker.

    http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/?p=97

  34. M White says:

    The Kayak man Lewis Gordon Pugh has an expedition journal which can be found at

    http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/

    Last year he went for a swim in a very conveniently situated hole in the ice at the north pole. A record of the swim can be found on U-Tube

    http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=6sS8OcEwXNs

  35. M White says:

    Found another picture of submarines on the surface at the north pole
    Shot: 6 May 1986.
    Described “as an elevated view of the attack submarines USS RAY (SSN-653), USS HAWKBILL (SSN-666), and USS ARCHERFISH (SSN-678) surfaced at the geographic North Pole. This is the first time three nuclear-powered submarines have simultaneously surfaced at the pole.”

    http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Submarines_surfaced_at_the_North_Pole.jpg#filelinks

  36. Stevie B says:

    I just want to say “thank you” to Anthony for doing this entry. I requested he do one on this the other day. I know I wasn’t the only one, but it’s neat to have that kind of response. Keep up the great work!

  37. Jeff Id says:

    It’s a good thing that we have two ice caps. The antarctic ice is actually growing ask a government scientist and they will tell you the south pole ice is a local weather event yet the same guys will say the north pole weather is clearly man made global warming. Makes your head hurt.

    This issue has very little to do with actual science anymore. It is an ideology of government control. I am an engineer so I prefer to look at the science but it is not what anthropogenic global warming is. It is stacks of govenrment agencies and scientists directed through the IPCC being paid only if they find AGW.

    I took a quick look at he research projects the NSIDC is operating right now. I asked myself, how many of these studies would be funded if AGW was well accepted as false? — Not too many, look for yourself.

    For more information about how the UN government controls and corrupts this science
    http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/environment/anthropogenic-global-warming/

  38. Sam The Skeptic says:

    Janama,
    It’s not just wiki that disagrees with Phil –
    http://www.hnsa.org/ships/stroch.htm, the web site of the Historic Naval Ships Association.
    Sorry, Phil, but you really need to escape the cognitive dissonance cocoon you guys are living in and come out and join the real world.
    Learn little things like warm is better than cold; CO2 is not a pollutant; there is nothing new under the sun; the world did not begin in 1979. Things like that!

  39. Mike Bryant says:

    There is a good collection of this media misinformation and the corrections here:

    http://www.worldclimatereport.com/

  40. CPT. Charles says:

    Just a minor point, but I remember reading that there is an unusual level of [underwater] volcanic activity taking place in the Arctic Region this year; and that researchers discovered evidence of similar [past] events.

    Examples:

    http://www.iceagenow.com/Black_smokers_found_in_Arctic_Ocean.htm

    http://www.iceagenow.com/Boiling_Hot_Water_Found_in_Frigid_Arctic_Sea.htm

    http://www.iceagenow.com/Undersea_volcanic_activity_blamed_for_mass_extinction_93_million_years_ago.htm

    http://www.iceagenow.com/Magma_May_Be_Melting_Greenland_Ice.htm

    http://www.iceagenow.com/Arctic_seabed_afire_with_lava_spewing_volcanoes.htm

    As you might suspect, these stories aren’t getting a whole lot of airtime in the ‘drive-by’ media. Hmmm…I wonder why. Any guesses, people? [Okay, snark mode off...]

  41. John-X says:

    “NEW”

    Interview this week with Dr. David Hathaway

    http://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID=1465&category=Science

    “…There has not been a spot on the sun for at least a month and this is about the third rotation of the sun this cycle where we have not seen any sunspots at all. It is suggesting that the next cycle 24 might be a small cycle – much to my consternation!…”

  42. Pete says:

    There needs to be some sort of highly publicized “reporter jail” to “send” reporters like Bill Scanlon of Rocky Mountain News to for saying:

    “It would have been the first time in thousands of years that the most northerly place on the planet would have been ice-free.”

    In his mild defense, it may be likely that that is what Walt Meier and other research scientists at the University of Colorado’s National Snow and Ice Data Center told him, but not verbatim so he didn’t quote it.

    There also needs to be another similar jail to “send” research scientists and institutions who allow such inaccurate and/or out of context information to be communicated without disciplinary action being taken.

    Maybe we’ll get lucky and Sarah Palin will barracuda the fraudsters. She seems like a very straight shooter. I hope McCain the maverick lets her loose.

    [REPLY: Ah, not jail. They have a right of silly speech and beliefs,same as we do. Hell, maybe, but surely not jail! Let history "sort 'em out". E]

  43. Dan says:

    Re: the kayak guy seeking to highlight the melt, he’s taking a big chance. If he and his chase boat get stuck in the ice and trigger a high-risk rescue attempt, you can bet every network in the world would blanket the airwaves with a rescue like that. All the public needs to see is shivering reporters in parkas, and maybe copter-shots of a hungry polar bear or two closing in on the scene as rescuers makes their way up there. So he’s taking a chance of blowing it badly.

    I know there are some AGW folks on here, some of you guys might want to have a word with him, this stunt has the potential to do more damage to The Cause than to the dissenters.

  44. Bill Illis says:

    Lewis Pugh, the kayaker, will not get very far if he leaves Spitzbergen from the northeast side of the island since the ocean is still frozen right up to the coast on this side.

    He could go northwest and get 50 miles or so before reaching the ice pack. He could go west about 500 miles and then north and get a little closer to the north pole if he really wants a good propagan-photo-op. But he won’t get any closer than 80N.

  45. John-X says:

    Pete (06:48:04) :

    “There also needs to be another similar jail to “send” research scientists and institutions who allow such inaccurate and/or out of context information to be communicated without disciplinary action being taken.”

    No, not jail, but we do need to be taking names.

    If we don’t, the same people who are selling us “AGW” “policy advice” today, a few years from now will be preaching to us that global cooling is our fault and demanding that we change our behavior and invest our tax dollars in their “solutions.”

  46. edcon says:

    I wonder what the satellites might have seen at the North Pole when the Norse were living in “Greenland” raising crops and live stock about 1000 to 1300 AD.

  47. evanjones says:

    Paul Ehrlich, Dennis Meadows . . .

  48. statePoet1775 says:

    “Hell, maybe, but surely not jail! ” jonesee

    Nah, a lifetime of shame with tail tucked between legs and NO more government grants. I agree that someone should be taking names. Don’t want to have to deal with the same ninnies more than once.

  49. edcon says:

    I think the current mass acceptance of AGW and now climate change is certainly qualified to be added as an addendum to Charles Mackay’s ‘Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds’

  50. edcon says:

    Does anyone know if the build up of ice at the South Pole at some point can affect the earth’s tilt or are the land masses in the NH too large for such an occurrence?

  51. Mary Hinge says:

    “If it hits, you can be sure we’ll hear all about it, even though it’s the warm waters coming into the Arctic from the Atlantic that’s doing much of the damage ”
    My oh my, the excuses are starting to come in already, quite a change in tone from a couple of months ago! Glad to see you say “much of the damage” rather than ‘all’.

  52. Phil. says:

    Janama (22:03:39) :
    sorry Phil but Wiki disagrees with you.

    “In 1940, Canadian RCMP officer Henry Larsen was the second to sail the passage, crossing west to east, from Vancouver to Halifax. More than once on this trip, it was unknown whether the St. Roch a Royal Canadian Mounted Police “ice-fortified” schooner would survive the ravages of the sea ice. At one point, Larsen wondered “if we had come this far only to be crushed like a nut on a shoal and then buried by the ice.” The ship and all but one of her crew survived the winter on Boothia Peninsula. Each of the men on the trip was awarded a medal by Canada’s sovereign, King George VI, in recognition of this notable feat of Arctic navigation.

    Later in 1944, Larsen’s return trip was far more swift than his first; the 28 months he took on his first trip was significantly reduced, setting the mark for having traversed it in a single season. The ship followed a more northerly partially uncharted route, and it also had extensive upgrades.”

    No they agree with me, the original comment to which I was responding was:
    “I guess the wooden RCMP schooner St. Roche sailing though the Northwest Passage from west to east in one season in 1944 was just a fairy tale.”

    Didn’t happen!

  53. Phil. says:

    Sam The Skeptic (05:04:06) :
    Janama,
    It’s not just wiki that disagrees with Phil –
    http://www.hnsa.org/ships/stroch.htm, the web site of the Historic Naval Ships Association.
    Sorry, Phil, but you really need to escape the cognitive dissonance cocoon you guys are living in and come out and join the real world.

    Sorry Sam but you really need to fix your reading comprehension!

    By my last count 7 yachts sailed the NWP this season, Berrimilla an unreinforced 33′ yacht went W-E, AC to AC in a month.

  54. JD says:

    Pugh ‘to kayak to North Pole’

    Headline news on the BBC:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7588377.stm

  55. Ric Werme says:

    Phil. (09:19:54) :

    “By my last count 7 yachts sailed the NWP this season, Berrimilla an unreinforced 33′ yacht went W-E, AC to AC in a month.”

    Some one should note that tools unavailable in the 1940s, .e.g. records from past success and failure, accurate maps, nagivation tools that work under clouds, satellite imagery, satellite phones, and resupply points were all important additions to the attempts this year.

    So noted. I’ll also note that the crew of the Berrimilla made it quite clear it was no easy trip and the window of opportunity was just a few days.

    Easier though than kayaking to the North Pole.

  56. M White says:

    “If he and his chase boat get stuck in the ice and trigger a high-risk rescue attempt, you can bet every network in the world would blanket the airwaves with a rescue like that.”

    http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/?p=102

    It appears he may have a network film crew with him, ITN (independent television news)

  57. Henry Galt says:

    edcon

    Fascinating question.

    The build-up of ice at the poles is one reason the US navy (being in charge of the world’s clocks) adds leap seconds to the calendar when needed. The Length Of Day depends on the rotation of the planet which can be altered by ice levels much like a ballerina pulling her arms toward her body to alter rotational speed.

    If you are inclined to further investigate this phenomenon you could do worse than to start with Jean Picard. He measured a degree of latitude, amongst other pioneering work, and used this to give the size of our planet. He was amazingly accurate for two reasons. He used astronomical calculations and, fortuitously, he did his measuring at the “best” degree of latitude (the earth is an oblate sphere, so the “half-way point” between pole and equator is not 45 degrees but approximately 51 degrees. Paris and Greenwich are close to this line. Ancient metrologists took this into account as did the Romans (by altering the spoke length of their pedometers so that a Legionnaire earned his daily salt by covering the same distance no matter how far from the equator they roamed.

    The 2009 (scheduled launch) mission PICARD is named after him due to more of his work – the first accurate measurements of the solar diameter. These were made during the Maunder minimum (a cold period in our ever changing climate) when the sun was without sunspots for many years in the 17th century. Comparing the diameter during the minimum with the diameter when active revealed a change. This difference continues to pose a question as to whether solar diameter is in some way linked with solar activity.

    Picard as a starting point will lead you through most of the scientific advancements to the current state of the art.

  58. Pamela Gray says:

    Seasonal ice growth set a record breaking comeback during the 07-08 winter season, and not be any small insignificant amount. Not since 1979 has there been such a surge in our ice machine. While it is true that perennial ice was at its lowest since 1979 at 3 million sq km before our cold winter, the media and scientists alike equally failed to report the subsequent record breaking surge. I would be willing to bet that one has to go back a few more years prior to 1979 to see the same amount of seasonal ice regrowth as was measured in 07-08. Are we to believe that global warming turns itself off and on?

    If global warming is a constant, the logic must be thus: Global warming caused the record breaking 07 Summer melt of both seasonal and perennial ice. Therefore global warming caused the record breaking subsequent re-growth of what would now be called seasonal ice. If one of these statements is not true, the other one cannot be true either.

  59. Phil. says:

    So noted. I’ll also note that the crew of the Berrimilla made it quite clear it was no easy trip and the window of opportunity was just a few days.

    Easier though than kayaking to the North Pole.

    Berrimilla made it through at about the first possible date and had to squeeze through some tight gaps in the ice for a couple of days, that bottle neck has been clear since.
    This is what they sailed through, up the east side, green stands for ‘go’ less than 3/10ths but still hairy in a 33′ yacht!
    http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS138C/20080813000100_WIS138C_0003912315.gif
    and
    http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20080815180000_WIS38CT_0003916928.gif
    This is what it looks like now:
    http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20080830180000_WIS38CT_0003943775.gif

    Berrimilla sailed fairly close to three polar bears swimming in the ocean that’s not an encounter I’d like to have in a kayak!

  60. Phil. says:

    Pamela Gray (13:51:17) :
    Seasonal ice growth set a record breaking comeback during the 07-08 winter season, and not be any small insignificant amount.

    To a level exceeded in 23 of the winters since ’79.

    Not since 1979 has there been such a surge in our ice machine. While it is true that perennial ice was at its lowest since 1979 at 3 million sq km before our cold winter, the media and scientists alike equally failed to report the subsequent record breaking surge.

    Perhaps because it wasn’t a record, it was a return to a lower than average value from a minimum that was lower by a million sq km than the previous record, no surprise.

    I would be willing to bet that one has to go back a few more years prior to 1979 to see the same amount of seasonal ice regrowth as was measured in 07-08.

    Without a doubt since it would be predicated on a record low minimum!

    Are we to believe that global warming turns itself off and on?

    In the polar regions, yes, it’s called winter and the sun doesn’t shine there for several months!
    You should also note that multiyear ice such as extensively melted last summer produces fresher melt water which floats on top of salt water and refreezes faster than the normal first year melt.

  61. Lewis Pugh (the kayaker) appeared on BBC World Service TV just now. It was a prepared TV interview from a sunny beach outside Cape Town!! He said he hoped he would not be able to kayak to the North Pole, “because otherwise we would be in trouble”.

    This has all the signs of a campaign. A taped interview, a blog (does he write it himself?), a TV crew, newspaper articles…

  62. Matt Lague says:

    The Lewis Pugh stunt highlights some of the AGW affliction. They actually believe we are about to fry. If warming is contrary to recent observation, why isn’t this a neurosis. Social psychologists will have a day out with this for many years. I have seen first hand the way nonsense morphs into fact inside the leftist/eco-zealot mindset. Soon as enough of them start repeating it, it becomes true. I’m afraid it is now a cult. Matty, Perth, Western Australia

  63. H.M. Bulthuis says:

    Would anyone with knowledge of what is going on perhaps like to respond to this article?
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/for-the-first-time-in-human-history-the-north-pole-can-be-circumnavigated-913924.html

    The main Dutch new agency has posted an article based on this, as it seems to me, somewhat politically motivated story. What should we make of this? Wasn’t the story earlier this year that the ice had greatly recovered and we were well above the decline of last year? And considering global temperatures are a lot lower than in recent years, should we not search for a different explanation than ‘plain global warming’?

  64. Bruce Cobb says:

    AGWers everywhere must be rejoicing (though they pretend shock and horror). Melting arctic ice is their last bastion of hope in keeping their AGW religion alive.

  65. Pingback: Arctic Ice Growth, 2008 - How Much? « Watts Up With That?

  66. Pamela Gray says:

    Phil, please note I was not talking about absolute extent. I was talking about the overall minimum to maximum. Because 2007 minimum was so low, the GROWTH of ice to the next maximum IS a record. However, the extent was not. I thought I made that clear.

  67. Ed Scott says:

    To CPT, Charles,

    It does seem possible that volcanic activity along the 1,100 mile Gakkel Ridge in the Arctic would have an influence on sea water temperature.
    The blogger at http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5589 has a simiar view, backed by several references.

    This is from an article in the NYT, What’s Up With Volcanoes Under Arctic Sea Ice,1 July 2008, http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/01/whats-up-with-volcanoes-under-arctic-sea-ice/:

    There was an eruption of assertions in recent days that the increasing summer retreats and thinning of Arctic Ocean sea ice might be a result not of atmospheric warming but instead all the heat from the recent discovered volcanoes peppering the Gakkel Ridge, one of the seams in the deep seabed at the top of the world. Several experts said it was not plausible from the get-go.

    So, I suppose it is settled science?

  68. Mike Bryant says:

    Ok here is some really wild speculation. It seems to me that the warming of the last century has, if anything, moderated earth’s climate. Looking through some old books on google books, “warm arctic” search term, it seems that the arctic has had moderate temperatures as recently as 3,000 years ago. The fossils and remains in the region testify to this. Also, it seems that there have been no continental high temperature records set in many years. I think that it is likely that runaway global warming, would in fact be a global tempering, so that the temperatures would be more even worldwide. Imagine Hawaii all over the earth. This seems as likely to me as any catastrophic outcome.

  69. Paul Spite says:

    Carbon emissions have no discernable effect on climate, but our gullibility nets promoters of this “crisis” billions per year. Meanwhile they change nothing of their own lifestyles, though they also live on the planet they claim we are destroying. Claiming to want to save us from our folly, they seek to strip away our freedoms while destroying our economy. While the climate itself mocks their so-called linkages, and our economy is already on the edge of collapse, a Democratic Congress is still pushing for carbon cap legislation. What will it take to bring this farce to an end?

    Your website leads me to believe we share the concerns about this attempt to sell out our country for profit and power. Would you help me promote a book I have written examining this hoax? It is intended to make readers angry over being played for patsies. If enough people read it, it would create a public backlash against that legislation, but through my own efforts, I have been unable to sufficiently publicize this work. Would you also pass this e-mail on to all your peers you think might agree and help?

    The book is entitled “A Climate Crisis a la Gore” and is organized as follows:

    • Introduction – the motivation behind the assembly of this information for public use.
    • Part 1 – Excerpted ideas from Mr. Gore’s book, The Assault on Reason. I use Mr. Gore’s own claims regarding the proper and reasonable way to enter an argument or evidence into the marketplace of ideas, the forum of reason, the real power behind democracy.
    • Part 2 – A claim by claim analysis of Mr. Gore’s documentary, An Inconvenient Truth. These are evaluated with simple logic, claims elsewhere in the documentary, Mr. Gore’s excerpted written principles of reasoning, and scientific research and findings regarding the subjects of his claims.
    • Part 3 – Discussion and disclosure of players and special interest groups creating the perception of a global climate crisis. The history of the movement is examined, motives behind involvement, dollar amounts of profit already being reaped by promoters, and what they stand to gain if America enacts carbon legislation.
    • Conclusion – The coming economic storm resulting from enacting this legislation and a plea to readers to contact legislators demanding such laws be reconsidered.

    Excerpts can be reviewed and the book ordered at Amazon.com by entering the title, ISBN# (978-1-4196-8684-9) or by following the link http://www.amazon.com/Climate-Crisis-Gore-perception-warming/dp/1419686844/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1202424474&sr=8-1 If you are willing to inform your readers of its contents and availability, an informed (and angry) population of voters might be a real, and maybe the only, check and balance system capable of stopping Congress.

    Sincerely,

    Paul Spite

  70. Pingback: NSIDC’ s Dr. Walt Meier Answers 10 Questions « Watts Up With That?

Comments are closed.