The Week That Was: 2026-01-17 (January 17, 2026)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “I know you think you understand what you think I said, but I’m not sure that you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.”— Robert J. McCloskey
Number of the Week: Over 35 Years
*********************
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW opens with a comparison of tropical tropospheric temperature trends with global climate model results prepared by Roy Spencer in 2013. TWTW continues with Spencer’s update on January 13. TWTW discusses an essay by Andy May on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is important for weather and climate. TWTW concludes with an example of confirmation bias identified by Anthony Watts.
*********************
Epic Fail II: On June 4, 2013, Roy Spencer posted the results of important research in “EPIC FAIL: 73 Climate Models vs. Observations for Tropical Tropospheric Temperature” It stated:
“Courtesy of John Christy, a comparison between 73 CMIP5 models (archived at the KNMI Climate Explorer website) and observations for the tropical bulk tropospheric temperature (aka ‘MT’) since 1979:
Rather than a spaghetti plot of the models’ individual years, we just plotted the linear temperature trend from each model and the observations for the period 1979-2012.
Note that the observations (which coincidentally give virtually identical trends) come from two very different observational systems: 4 radiosonde datasets, and 2 satellite datasets (UAH and RSS).
If we restrict the comparison to the 19 models produced by only U.S. research centers, the models are more tightly clustered:
Now, in what universe do the above results not represent an epic failure for the models?
I continue to suspect that the main source of disagreement is that the models’ positive feedbacks are too strong…and possibly of even the wrong sign.
The lack of a tropical upper tropospheric hotspot in the observations is the main reason for the disconnect in the above plots, and as I have been pointing out this is probably rooted in differences in water vapor feedback. The models exhibit strongly positive water vapor feedback, which ends up causing a strong upper tropospheric warming response (the ‘hot spot’), while the observation’s lack of a hot spot would be consistent with little water vapor feedback.”[Boldface added]
The models were dealing with a fabled tropical hot spot first asserted in the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (1992). Commenting on the Summary, Frederick Seitz, the late chairman of SEPP, stated:
“In my more than 60 years as a member of the American scientific community, including service as president of both the National Academy of Sciences and the American Physical Society, I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report.”
How have the models improved over the past 13 years? In his January 13, 2026, post Spencer provides the answer: “Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends, 1979-2025: The Epic Climate Model Failure Continues.” Spencer states: [Boldface added except where noted.]
“As a follow-on to my recent post regarding global surface air temperature trends (1979-2025) and how they compare to climate models, this is an update on a similar comparison for tropical tropospheric temperature trends, courtesy of tabulations made by John Christy. It also represents an update to my popular ‘epic fail’ blog post from 2013.
As most of you know, climate models suggest that the strongest warming response the climate system has to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mainly CO2 from fossil fuel burning) is in the tropical upper troposphere. This produces the model-anticipated ‘tropical hotspot.’
While the deep oceans represent the largest reservoir of heat energy storage in the climate system during warming, that signal is exceedingly small (hundredths of a degree C per decade) and so its uncertainty is rather large from an observational standpoint. In contrast, the tropical upper troposphere has the largest temperature response in climate models (up to 0.5 deg. C per decade).
This [is] shown in the following plot of the decadal temperature trends from 39 climate models (red bars) compared to observations gathered from radiosondes (weather balloons); satellites; and global data reanalyzes (which use all kinds of available meteorological data).
The sonde trend bar in the above plot (green) is the average of 3 datasets (radiosonde coverage of the tropics is very sparse); the reanalysis trend (black) is from 2 datasets, and the satellite trend (blue) is the average of 3 datasets. Out of all types of observational data, only the satellites provide complete coverage of the tropics.
Amazingly, all 39 climate models exhibit larger warming trends than all three classes of observational data. [Boldface added]
Time Series, 1979-2025 [Boldface in Original]
If we compare the average model warming to the observations in individual years, we get the following time series (note that complete reanalysis data for 2025 are not yet available); color coding remains the same as in the previous plot:
The unusually warm year of 2024 really stands out (likely due to a decrease in cloud cover letting in more sunlight), but in 2025 the satellites and radiosondes show a ‘return to trend’. Of course, what happens in the future is anyone’s guess.
‘So What? No One Lives In the Tropical Troposphere’ [Boldface in original]
What is going on that might explain these discrepancies, not only between the models and the observations, but even between the various models themselves? And why should we care, since no one lives up in the tropical troposphere, anyway?
Well, the same argument can be made about the deep oceans (no one lives there), yet they are pointed to by many climate researchers as the most important ‘barometer’ of the positive global energy imbalance of the climate system caused by increasing GHGs (and maybe by natural processes… who knows?).
The excessive warming of the tropical troposphere is no doubt related to inadequacies in how the models handle convective overturning in the tropics, that is, organized thunderstorm activity that transports heat from the surface upward. That ‘deep moist convection’ redistributes not only heat energy, but clouds and water vapor, both of which have profound impacts on tropical tropospheric temperature. While moistening of the lowest layer of the troposphere in response to warming no doubt contributes to positive water vapor feedback, precipitation microphysics governs how much water vapor resides in the rest of the troposphere, and as we demonstrated almost 30 years ago, that leads to large uncertainties in total water vapor feedback.
My personal opinion has always been that the lack of tropical warming is because positive water vapor feedback, the primary positive feedback that amplifies warming in climate models, is too strong. Climate models actually support this interpretation because it has long been known that those models with the strongest ‘hotspot’ in the upper troposphere tend to have the largest positive water vapor feedback.
Will Climate Models Ever Be ‘Fixed’? [Boldface in original]
I find it ironic that climate models are claimed to be based upon fundamental ‘physical principles.’ If that were true, then all models would have the same climate sensitivity to increasing GHGs.
But they don’t.
Climate models range over a factor of three in climate sensitivity, a disparity that has remained for over 30 years of the climate modeling enterprise. And the main reason for that disparity is inter-model differences in the moist convective processes (clouds and water vapor) which cause positive feedbacks in the models.
Maybe if the modelers figured out why their handling of moist convection is flawed, models would then produce warming more in line with observations, and more in line with each other.
Much of global warming alarmism arises from scientific publications biased toward (1) the models that produce the most warming, and (2) the excessive GHG increases (‘SSP scenarios’) they assume for the most dire climate change projections. Those scenarios are now known to be excessive compared to observed rates of global GHG emissions (and to the reviewer of our DOE report who said this conclusion was in error because I didn’t account for land use changes, no, I removed land use changes from the SSP scenarios… it was an apples-to-apples comparison).
Finally, I don’t want to make it sound like I’m against climate modeling. I am definitely not. I just think the models, as a tool for energy policy guidance, have been misused.”
TWTW Comments: One of the most striking features of Spencer’s presentation is the close agreement of three types of observations: 1) radiosondes; 2) reanalysis data sets; and 3) satellite trends in the graph “1979 to 2025 Tropical Tropospheric Temperatures.” They move together over the entire period indicating little disparity while temperature trends increase and decrease. Global climate modelers have no excuse for ignoring this physical evidence. The average of global climate models fails to simulate observed changing trends. The evidence demonstrates that a strong positive water vapor feedback is not occurring particularly in upper troposphere and the models should be adjusted accordingly.
The graph “Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends, 1979-2025” reveals how much each model overestimates the observations. The two best are: 1) The MIROC6 model (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6) from a consortium of Japanese institutions; and 2) The IITM Global Climate Model, known as the IITM Earth System Model (IITM-ESM), India’s first indigenous, fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). They slightly overestimate observations by a small fraction of one-tenth of a degree C.
The worst is CanESM (Canadian Earth System Model) developed by Canada’s Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma). It overestimates observations by over two and one half times.
The US models are in the middle to the upper middle of the pack with NASA-GISS GSS-E2 the best and the CESM2-WACCM from the National Atmospheric Research Center the worst, doubling the observations. China’s BCC-CSM2 outperforms all US models.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
*********************
The ITCZ: In Watts Up With That, petrophysicst Andy May addresses a complex issue in changing weather and climate: where is the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)? In part he writes [citations are in the paper but not presented here]:
“The Intertropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ is where the trade winds from the Northern and Southern Hemisphere converge and where the column-integrated meridional (north-south) circulation and the “near-surface meridional mass flux” vanishes according to Adam et al., 2016. For a history of the discovery of the ITCZ see Nicholson, 2018. The ITCZ is not the solar equator, the latitude where the Sun is directly overhead at noon, but it is closely related to it, and they move in a coordinated fashion. The ITCZ is an oceanic phenomenon and doesn’t really exist over land in the same way as described here, except in coastal areas (Nicholson, 2018).
The Sun is almost directly overhead at noon each day in the ITCZ, and it delivers over 940 W m-2 of power to that location at noon, which is enough to raise the water temperature to 86°C or 187°F on a clear day, absent a cooling mechanism. The solar radiation causes intense evaporation which carries away a lot of latent heat. When the heat carried away by convection and conduction is added to the escaping latent heat, the surface water is cooled to a more reasonable 20° to 30°C (Sud et al., 1999). Since water vapor is much less dense than dry air, the moist air rises. The result is deep convection that can sometimes reach the upper troposphere and even the stratosphere (Gettleman et al., 2025). When the rising air hits the more stable stratosphere it spreads horizontally, with a significant poleward component in both hemispheres.”
In describing its importance for climate May writes:
“A summary of the latitudes and the evidence used is given in Table 1. [Not included here] These recent (~1990 to 2025) locations are approximate and vary from year to year, century to century, and millennia to millennia (Yuan et al., 2023). Yuan, et al. document that the ITCZ moved dramatically northward from ~3500BC to ~2000BC and then dramatically southward from ~500BC to ~500AD when it reached its southernmost position since the last glacial period.”
Adding to the complexity the ITCZ jumps. May writes [figures and citations not included here]:
“Figure 3 is based only on precipitation and cloud cover, which are only two of the criteria for the ITCZ, but they are important. The precise reason why the ITCZ jumps abruptly across the equator is unknown but probably related several factors: cooler temperatures at the equator due to equatorial upwelling of deeper waters in the Pacific, monsoons, and enhanced convection off the equator (Hu et al., 2007). Convection always favors warmer SSTs, so the ITCZ jumps from one warmer region to the other and skips the cooler temperatures at the equator (Hu et al., 2007).
One known multi-year-scale driver of the ITCZ location is ENSO (Adam et al., 2016), but there may be others. The central latitudes in Table 1 are rough, but act as a guide on the maps. September, August, July, and April have a fairly well-behaved and flat ITCZ in the Pacific, but other months do not. The ITCZ is hard to locate over southeastern Asia due to the South Pacific Convergence Zone northeast of Australia. This zone of converging winds trends southeast to northwest (see Fig. 4) complicates locating the ITCZ over Indonesia.”
May concludes his attempt to pin the ITCZ down with:
“It is clear that the ITCZ moves north and south seasonally, however the precise monthly location is unknown. Since the ITCZ location changes continuously and is the root of the Hadley circulation, it is important to global weather. It can only be approximately located by studying the atmospheric mass flux, wind speed and direction, and the zone of maximum precipitation and cloudiness, thus it is very hard to pin down.”
Who says the science is settled? See link under Changing Climate.
*********************
Confirmation Bias: Anthony Watts recognized that the paper “Ocean Heat Content Sets Another Record in 2025” published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. demonstrated confirmation bias. The tendency to search for and interpret data that confirms your existing beliefs or hypotheses, while ignoring or downplaying evidence that contradicts them. The opening sentence of the abstract is:
“Global ocean warming continued unabated in 2025 in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations and recent reductions in sulfate aerosols, reflecting the long-term accumulation of heat within the climate system, with conditions evolving toward La Niña during the year.”
Anthony’s comments provide a detailed criticism that are summed as:
“When a ‘climate scientist’ takes a perfectly valid observational number and repackages it as ‘heat added by emissions’ — without doing the attribution — that’s not science communication.”
To which TWTW adds: In 1996, the CERES Project set out to monitor the heat balance of Earth. There were two basic findings. The first was that the warming of Earth since the project began has been due to a decrease in the planet’s albedo, letting in more sunlight. The second was that the increase in absorbed solar radiation was “partially offset by an increase in OLR [outgoing longwave radiation].” An increase in the greenhouse effect caused by increasing CO2 should result in a decrease in OLR. From Norman G. Loeb’s talk to CERES staff, “Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000”
Infrared radiation from the atmosphere cannot penetrate the oceans by more than an inch (2 cm). Sunlight warms the oceans because it penetrates deeply, by passing the evaporation that comes from surface heating. A reduction in sulfate aerosols increased sunlight in the 2020s. The warming of the oceans may have nothing to do with greenhouse gases.
See links to under Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague? and for Loeb’s talk at the CERES Science Team Meeting https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/documents/STM/2023-05/15_Loeb_Contributed_Science_Presentation_2023.pdf
*********************
Number of the Week: 36 Years. In March 1990 Roy Spencer and John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) published atmospheric temperature records derived from microwave sounding units (MSUs) on board satellites. The data goes back to January 1979. An initial error from satellite drift and orbital decay was identified and quickly corrected, as called for in proper science.
After over 35 years, the global climate modelers continue to ignore the existence of this physical evidence even though it is verified by 2 other satellite datasets, 3 radiosonde datasets, and 2 reanalysis datasets. Instead, global climate modelers use inferior data to calculate the influence of greenhouse gases on global temperatures, and it shows. See Epic Fail II above.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase
By Richard Lindzen, William Happer, and William A. van Wijngaarden, CO2 Coalition, June 2024
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends, 1979-2025: The Epic Climate Model Failure Continues
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 13, 2026
EPIC FAIL: 73 Climate Models vs. Observations for Tropical Tropospheric Temperature
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 4th, 2013
#DOEReportDeepDive: Ch. 5 Discrepancies between models and observations
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 14, 2026
It’s not just bizarre but impudent that we keep being told how much warmer it is than in 1850 to two spurious decimal places when top models generate estimates of how warm it is now that span a range of about 2.5 degrees C, more than double the estimated warming over the 20th century. (And don’t get us started on the precision of temperature 175 years ago.) But even if they get the current level of temperatures wrong, surely they get warming trends for the very recent past right, don’t they? Er, not so fast.
Coccolith clumped isotopes reveal modest rather than extreme northern high latitude amplification during the Miocene
By Luz María Mejía, et al., Nature Communications, Dec 9, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
From the abstract: This record highlights the need to continuously reevaluate proxy interpretations to achieve both reliable trends and absolute temperature values, while providing a more optimistic perspective of future high latitude climate response to CO2 emissions.
Chris Wright — We’re in the greatest Malinvestment in Human History
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 10, 2026
Chris Wright, the United States Secretary of Energy, marvels that people can spend so much to achieve so little:
“Germany invested half a trillion dollars, more than doubled the capacity of its electricity grid — and today produces 20% less electricity than before that investment, selling it at three times the price.” — 13 min
“The lucky one billion — including everyone in this room — consumes about 13 barrels of oil per person per year. The other seven billion want to live like we do, but they consume about three barrels per person per year.”
There is something prosaic about ministerial titles in the USA. Chris Wright is the Secretary of Energy and knows exactly what his primary task is, unlike the Australian Minister for Coal, Oil, Gas, Corals, Koalas and Weather Control.
[SEPP Comment: The video was linked in last week’s TWTW]
New Study: Species Extinction Rates Declining Since 1980 – ‘Climate Change Is Not An Important Threat’
By Kenneth Richard, NO Tricks Zone, Jan 15, 2026
Link to paper: Unpacking the extinction crisis: rates, patterns and causes of recent extinctions in plants and animals.
By Kristen E. Saban; John J. Wiens, The Royal Society Proceedings B, Oct 15, 2025
From abstract: Recent extinctions were predominantly on islands, whereas the majority of non-island extinctions were in freshwater. Island extinctions were most frequently related to invasive species, but habitat loss was the most important cause (and current threat) in continental regions. Overall, we identify the major patterns in recent extinctions but caution against extrapolating them into the future.
Defending the Orthodoxy
2025 was one of the three hottest years on record, scientists find
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 14, 2026 [Three sources]
Link to NOAA: 2025 finishes as third warmest globally and upper ocean heat content was record high
By Staff, Assessing the Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in 2025, Jan 14, 2026
NOAA ranks 2025 as the third-warmest year in its global temperature record, which dates back to 1850.
[SEPP Comment: Includes coverage of much of the globe where they are no records dating to 1850, or even to 1950.]
Link to Copernicus: Global Climate Highlights 2025
Data source: ERA5 • Reference period: pre-industrial (1850–1900)
NOAAGlobalTemp (from 1850), GISTEMP (from 1880), ERA5 (from 1940)
Link to: Met Office: 2025 continues series of world’s three warmest years
By Grahame Madge, Met Office, Jan 14, 0226
The three-year run of record warmest years saw 2025 conclude at 1.41±0.09°C above the 1850-1900 global average, according to the HadCRUT5 temperature series, collated by the Met Office, the University of East Anglia and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science. 2025 is the third warmest year on record and is the third calendar year exceeding 1.4°C.
Global temperatures dipped in 2025 but more heat records on way, scientists warn
By Mark Poynting, BBC News, Jan 13, 2026 [H/t SJ Cvrik]
How clean energy could save us trillions
By Charli Shield, DW, Jan 7, 2026
Link to paper: Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition
By Rupert Way, et al., Joule, Sep 21, 2022
From summary: Here, we use an approach based on probabilistic cost forecasting methods that have been statistically validated by back testing on more than 50 technologies. We generate probabilistic cost forecasts for solar energy, wind energy, batteries, and electrolyzes, conditional on deployment. We use these methods to estimate future energy system costs and explore how technology cost uncertainty propagates through to system costs in three different scenarios.
[SEPP Comment; Unable to find any estimate of battery requirements for prolonged wind and solar blackouts and the subsequent recharging needed.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Oh Noes! Climate Change is Messing with the Nitrogen Cycle
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 13, 2026
Link to paper: Impacts of climate change on global terrestrial nitrogen cycles
By Miao Zheng, et al., Nitrogen Cycling, Dec 31, 2026
From Highlights of the paper: Integrated governance of the nitrogen cycle is essential for effective climate adaptation strategies.
[SEPP Comment: The Haber-Bosch process for producing ammonia for nitrogen fertilizer has greatly increased agricultural productivity. It must have upset the Nitrogen Cycle.]
Southeast Asia Continues Hurtling Down the Net Zero Suicide Track
By Talak Doshi, His Substack, Jan 16, 2026
Link to paper: Charting net-zero pathways for ASEAN’s energy sector Open Access
Sheng Zhong, et al., PNAS Nexus, Jan 1, 206
From the abstract: We present a capacity expansion model with hourly resolution for ASEAN to meet net-zero emissions by 2050, integrating electricity generation and hydrogen production. The results show two “bookend” pathways. ASEAN can decarbonize its power sector through an accelerated expansion in renewables and battery storage (up to 95% and battery charge up to 28% in 2050) or an expansion in carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen (up to 46 and 15%, respectively). CCS is found to play a key role in hydrogen production.
From Doshi: Net Zero may be on life support in the US and Europe, but Southeast Asia doesn’t appear to have got the note. Not, at least, if a new paper by leading scholars at the National University of Singapore published in a journal affiliated with the US National Academy of Sciences is any indication. Technically sophisticated, but based on economic modelling untethered from reality, it assumes what it should test, minimizes costs without measuring them and ignores a host of political, institutional and technological obstacles.
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate Change Economics, Skip the Hysteria (Lomborg)
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Jan 10, 2026
Text of video interview
Climate Alarmism’s Credibility Sinks Under Weight of Ecological Evidence
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Jan 12, 2026
The house of cards built on computer models and manipulated emotions is collapsing under the weight of a stubborn, inconvenient reality. The “climate emergency” exists only in the frantic press releases of a movement that knows it’s time is up.
Did they forget to mention 2025 was 3000th hottest year of Human civilization?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 15, 2026
[SEPP Comment: See on the three hottest years on record under Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?]
Cold and stupid
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 14, 2026
It is tempting to think of cold as an actual positive thing not just the absence of heat. Especially if you encounter it in all its fury without the “modern miracle” (in entrepreneur Michael Binnion’s phrase) of hydrocarbon energy that helps us build weather-resistant buildings then heat them. If it were minus 21C and you lived in a mud hut you wouldn’t live long.
Philosopher Schopenhauer: Climate Science Certainty Stems From Stupidity, Ignorance
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 16, 2026
Another Predictable Disaster
By Roger Underwood, Quadrant, Jan 13, 2026
Anybody with the merest understanding of history and firefighting knows the bushfire basics. Fires starting in mid-summer at the end of a drought or rainless period will always be hard to control. If they also start under adverse weather conditions — multiple lightning strikes, strong winds, low humidity and high temperature — they will be even harder to control. But on top of this, if they start in bushland carrying heavy, long-unburnt fuels, they will be impossible to control … at least until it starts to rain, or they run into terrain cleared of fuel by last year’s fire. And if these fires burn into ill-prepared residential areas, the outcome will always be catastrophic.
Roger Underwood AM is a retired Western Australian bushfire specialist with extensive Australian and international experience
A Climatologist Asks: Where Are All The Climate-Related Disasters?
After 25 years of claimed record heat, extreme weather still refuses to cooperate.
By Dr. Matthew Wielicki, Climate Change Dispatch, Jan 16, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Extreme weather was the mechanism by which warming became a crisis.
And that mechanism is not showing up in the data. [Emphasis in original]
Climate Change Weekly # 567—A Meaningless Number Drives Climate Policy
Editorial, The Heartland Institute, Jan 9, 2026
The science is unsettled hip hip hooray
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 14, 2026
After Paris!
Trump Pulls The Rug From Under Paris Agreement
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2026
[SEPP Comment: Video. Marc Morano thinks that any future president rejoining the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will require 60 Senators. He may be referring to the cloture of a filibuster. Does rejoining the treaty required ratification by the Senate – approval by two-thirds of the senators voting?]
Rejecting Climatism: Trump Withdraws from UNFCCC and 66 International Organizations
By Steve Goreham, Master Resource, Jan 14. 2026
Rejecting Climate Policy Is Not a Crime
By Travis Fisher, Real Clear Energy, Jan 15, 2026
It was bound to happen. Activists are signaling support for the fringe legal theory of “climate homicide,” the notion that certain people and companies should be held criminally responsible for deaths related to climate change. Although it is factually backward and legally dubious, some academics and the shrinking minority of the “climate alarmed” are taking it seriously.
Donald Trump’s COP Out
By Stephen Eule, Real Clear Energy, Jan 15, 2026
But perhaps the most potent justification for bidding adieu to the UNFCCC was provided by Christiana Figueres, the UNFCCC Executive Secretariat during the Paris talks, who in a candid moment said, “This the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally . . . to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution.” This is not what President Bush signed onto or the Senate ratified.
The return of isolationism
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 14, 2026
One of the reasons we very much value Roger Pielke Jr.’s writings is that he always gives us something to think about, even when we disagree with him. ….But we respectfully think he is wrong [about the US leaving the IPCC and UNFCCC], partly because he underestimates the magnitude of the shift, or more precisely shift back, in American geopolitics, and partly because having everyone pretend bad organizations are good in the hope that it will cause them to become good has a long and dismal history.
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
The effect of CO2 on Geum Vernum
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 14, 2026
From the CO2Science archive.
Seeking a Common Ground
“Human Extinction” Climate Alarmist Debates Me
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 16, 2026
Link to: The Nemesis of Planet A – Is The Human Race Sleep Walking Towards Its Own Extinction?
By Martin Palmer, Amazon, Sep 5, 2025
From Palmer in the debate: The issue is how the industrial revolution has changed the heat reflecting characteristics the atmosphere during the Holocene epoch that created an ideal climate for life to evolve. The CO2 along with other GHGs that industrial processes and the burning of fossil fuels have emitted over the last 200 years are now trapping more of the Sun’s energy.
[SEPP Comment: Earth is cooler now than about 8,000 to 9,000 years ago. Greenhouse gases do not trap the Sun’s energy; they slow the cooling of Earth, preventing growing plants from freezing.]
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Climate Policy 2025: Much Good News
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Jan 13, 2026
Climate engineering would alter the oceans, reshaping marine life – our new study examines each method’s risks
By Kelsey Roberts, et al., The Conversation, Jan 14, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
It is possible that no climate intervention will ever be safe enough to implement on a large scale. But we believe that decision should be guided by evidence – not market pressure, fear or ideology.
Model Issues
Determining the cause of inconsistent onset-season trends in the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent record
By Aleksandra Elias Chereque, et al., AAAS Science Advances, Oct 31, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
From Kepshire: Learned a new climate term today: offline snow model. According to AI:
“An offline snow model is a snow simulation model run independently of a fully coupled atmospheric or climate model, using pre-calculated or observed meteorological data (forcings) as its input. The key characteristic is the lack of feedback from the snow model back to the atmosphere model during the simulation (a “one-way” interaction).”
Changing Weather
Landfalling Hurricane Trends
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 16, 2026
Oh, they know snow
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 14, 2026
But did any of them actually tell us, a decade ago, that we’d have such headlines in 2026? Did any predict that we’d be in, if Ryan Maue is correct, “the snowiest January in history for the Northern Hemisphere”, probably exceeding even those in the cold but relatively dry Little Ice Age? And if not, what about all the other things they confidently told us would happen in ten years, or will happen in ten?
Fog and Freezing Fog in the Inland Empire: Intense Inversion Aloft
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 16, 2026
The Columbia River basin is well known for sun and warmth for much of the year, compared to the sodden, cloudy western side of Washington State.
During the cool season from mid-November through mid-February, the reality is often different, with cool, cloudy air trapped within the basin, often producing fog and FREEZING fog.
The last few days are great examples of this chilly, fog-laden situation.
Changing Climate
The Monthly ITCZ Central Latitude
By Andy May, WUWT, Jan 16, 2026
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Preventing climate change versus adapting to it: History shows that societies can adapt to changing climate conditions
By: Kenneth P. Green, The Fraser Institute, Jan 15, 2026 [H/t Thomas Drolet]
Changing Seas
Measuring and Analyzing Sea Levels using Satellites during 2025
By Alan Welch, WUWT, Jan 14, 2026
[SEPP Comment: According to Welch, the trend based on tide gauges has been about 8 inches over the last century, others estimate are about 6 inches. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and long-term wind shifts create problems for satellite estimates and short-term estimates (less than a century).]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
New Study: Greenland Was 3-7°C Warmer And Far Less Glaciated Than Today 6000-8000 Years Ago
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 12, 2026
Link to paper: Deglaciation of the Prudhoe Dome in northwestern Greenland in response to Holocene warming
By Caleb K. Walcott-George, et al., Nature Geoscience, Jan 5, 2026
Changing Earth
Don’t mention the volcano
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 14, 2026
He’s been watching the process closely since 2024 when he argued that the warming was likely due to the 2023 underwater Hunga Tonga volcano injecting huge amounts of the key greenhouse gas dihydrogen oxide into the atmosphere (a topic we’ve discussed many times).
[SEPP Comment: The eruption started on Dec 20, 2021, and ended on Jan 15, 2022. What were the significant events in 2022 after the eruption?]
Lowering Standards
BBC “Clarify” Great Barrier Reef Disinformation
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 15, 2026
[SEPP Comment: An August 5 article featuring a photo of a dead turtle with headlines of “Great Barrier Reef suffers worst coral decline on record” now ends with “Clarification January 13: This article was updated to say that the GBR’s coral cover prior to the largest annual decline as reported by AIMS was at a ‘record high’.” It still features the dead turtle.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Another near-record hot year a ‘warning shot’: Scientists
By AP, via The Hill, Jan 14, 2026
Earth’s average temperature last year sizzled at a feverishly elevated level, a jump up from trends of recent decades, but not quite as record-smashing hot as 2024, several climate monitoring teams reported Tuesday. [Boldface added]
The European climate service Copernicus reported that the Earth’s average annual temperature last year was 14.97 degrees Celsius (58.95 degrees Fahrenheit), which is 1.47 degrees Celsius (2.65 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times.
[SEPP Comment: Earth sizzled at 15°C (59°F)?]
Blackout blackout
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 14, 2026
You might have heard about this big blackout in Berlin. Or not, unless you happen to live there or nearby, because there’s been something of North American media blackout over it. Including the fact that it seems to have been caused by the radical left “Volcano Group” (“Vulkangruppe”) as a protest against hydrocarbon energy.
BBC Fact-Checking Show More or Less Gets its Climate Facts Wrong Again
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Jan 15, 2026
If More or Less is going to brave the politically treacherous waters of climate change science, it needs to up its game, start examining all the data and stop giving an easy, unquestioning ride to those with an obvious Net Zero fantasy narrative to promote.
Global Hurricane Trends
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2026
But the media are not interested in facts and hard data, or what the actual hurricane scientists say. They prefer propaganda.
False and Absurd: The BBC’s Fantasy of Climate-Driven Pay Cuts
By Andy Watts, Climate Realism, Jan 15, 2026
By presenting speculative modeling as real-world loss, BBC Science Focus misleads readers into believing climate change is already draining their paychecks. The data say otherwise.
[SEPP Comment: In Britian, it may be the government’s Net Zero policies that are cutting paychecks.]
No, CBS News, Recent Temperatures Didn’t Surpass a ‘Critical Climate Mark’
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Jan 12, 2026
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Confirmation Bias Replaces Science: How a Climate Scientist Turned 23 Zettajoules into Twitter Fiction
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 14, 2026
Link to: Ocean Heat Content Sets Another Record in 2025
By YuYing Pan, et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Jan 9, 2026
Ocean Heat Content and the Art of Climate Alarm
Why a calculated metric, aggressive smoothing, and selective storytelling are driving the latest wave of climate fear
By Matthew Wielicki, His Blog, Jan 12, 2026 H/t Bernie Kepshire
Link to paper: Ocean Heat Content Sets Another Record in 2025
By Yuying Pan, et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Jan 9, 2026
[SEPP Comment: See links immediately above.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Claim: A US Takeover of Greenland Would Deny Access to Climate Scientists
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 10, 2026
Link to: Why Greenland is indispensable to global climate science
By Martin Siegert, The Conversation, Jan 9, 2026
From Siegert: A unilateral US takeover [of Greenland] threatens to disrupt the open scientific collaboration that is helping us understand the threat of global sea-level rise.
From Worrall: I can’t recall the USA ever stopping foreign scientists from visiting, but apparently that will be a thing in the future.
German Media Report That Current Frigid Weather Can Be Explained By Arctic Warming!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 11, 2026
The article explains why severe winters in Germany do not contradict global warming. The core argument lies in the distinction between weather (short-term events) and climate (long-term trends). That of course gets ignored by the media when there’s a hot summer day.
[SEPP Comment: In physics, cold is the absence of heat. In the press, heat is the absence of cold?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
To understand why climate disinformation is so persistent, look at how the denial propaganda movement actually works
By Russell Cook, Gelbspan Files, Via WUWT, Jan 15, 2026
Twenty Years On, Al Gore’s ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ Thoroughly Debunked
Two decades after the film’s release, key climate predictions by Al Gore haven’t come true.
By Ian Miller, Climate Change Dispatch, Jan 15, 2026 [H/t SJ Cvrk]
A Good Mix of Sunlight and Rain is Now “Climate Whiplash”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 16, 2026
Questioning European Green
Net Zero Costs Could Exceed £7 Trillion – IEA
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2026
From the Telegraph:
The gross cost to the UK economy of achieving the 2050 target could exceed even the highest official predictions of £7.6tn, an Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) paper said.
The report said that previous estimates of the financial impact of net zero were based on “fantasy assumptions” of the cost of renewable energy and low-carbon technology.
Lord Frost, the head of the IEA, said the low estimates were also the result of “heroic assumptions” of the cost of household technologies such as heat pumps and electric cars. [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: What is heroic about making highly speculative assumptions that prove to be wrong?]
Net Zero Drive Will Cost £4.5 Trillion–[Daily] Mail
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2026
Miliband ‘to miss net zero targets by 15 years’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2026
From the Telegraph:
Ed Miliband is at risk of missing his clean power target by more than a decade amid delays to building wind farms and the closure of Britain’s ageing nuclear power stations.
Matthew Parris Calls for Ban on Smelly Hydrocarbons Whether Climate Emergency is Real or Not
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Jan 13, 2026
On the strength of his Spectator article, Parris has very little understanding of the crucial role hydrocarbons play in a modern industrial society. Their presence is everywhere from medicine to plastic, from fertilizer to a still dominant 80% global contribution to energy. Their by-product, carbon dioxide, ‘greens’ the planet, diminishing food shortages and combating drought in marginal areas on Earth. Net Zero is dead almost everywhere, with billions of people seeking to enjoy the life-enhancing benefits that hydrocarbons bring. The same life-enhancing benefits that Parris and all his fellow zealots/boobies have enjoyed during their own long-lived lives.
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Is Canada basing its climate policies on ‘decision-based evidence-making?’
By Tom Harris and Todd Royal, America Out Loud News, Jan 12, 2026 [H/t Ron Clutz]
We need three simple things. First public release of full station histories in machine-readable form. Second, an independent audit by statisticians and station experts who are not paid by the agencies being reviewed. Third, a pause on major climate expenditures that rely on the contested national trend until the audit is complete.
Non-Green Jobs
The UK is losing the industry that makes everything
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 16, 2026
We should be very frightened about this, but we are inured to it now:
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Trump proposes rule aimed at preventing states from blocking energy projects for ‘political purposes’
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 13, 2026
Jess Kramer, who leads the Environmental Protection Agency’s water office, told reporters the Trump administration is acting to make sure that the Clean Water Act “is not weaponized by states to shut down projects for political purposes, as opposed to protecting water quality.”
Energy Issues – General
America First Demands International Energy Alliances
By Chet Love, Real Clear Energy Jan 11, 1016
[SEPP Comment: Why?]
Energy wisdom is lacking among public officials
By Ronald Stein, America Out loud News, Jan 12, 2026
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 14, 2026
Canada has just banned the compact fluorescent bulbs it forced us all to use starting about 20 years ago by banning incandescents. As Blacklock’s Reporter reminds us, during a 2003 mass giveaway of the poisonous things a federal “Fact Sheet” sent to Canadian homes blared “Are compact fluorescent bulbs safe? Yes! They have a minute amount of mercury. If they break they do not pose a health risk.” Well, apart from the bit where you had to evacuate pets and children, open the windows and wait 15 minutes before venturing in with gloves, as they admitted in 2014.
[SEPP Comment: Compact fluorescent bulbs are little different from long round tubes in the ceiling of every office, school, etc., which we have all lived with for most of a century. The new regulations about evacuation, etc. are fanaticism.]
Energy Issues – Europe
Porter warns of serious electricity and gas grid risks [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2026
Link to press release: New report: Electrification – can the grid cope?
By Kathryn Porter, Watt Logic, Jan 12, 2026
Link to report: Electrification – can the grid cope?
By Kathryn Porter, Watt Logic, Jan 12, 2026
From Homewood: Speaking to the GWPF, Kathryn Porter said:
“DESNZ’s [Department for Energy Security and Net Zero] response to my report is to accuse me of scaremongering. I would rather see their plan for addressing these risks rather than calling me names.”
Britain ‘less investable than Venezuela’, says North Sea boss
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2026
From the Telegraph:
Britain has become as unattractive for investment as Venezuela because of Labour’s net zero crackdown on the oil industry, a North Sea boss has warned.
Jim Johnson, the chief executive of engineering group Hunting, criticized ministers for adopting a religious zeal around cutting greenhouse gas emissions, which he said had left Britain “like the Venezuela of the North Sea”.
Electricity Generating Costs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 16, 2026
Steve Loftus breaks down the differences between the latest electricity generation cost report and the 2023 version:
Britain at risk of electricity rationing before general election
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2026
Yes, we used to have “one of the most secure energy systems”, but we certainly have not now. As for more renewables making us more secure, NESO [National Energy System Operator] know this is untrue.
It was them who warned in their Clean Power 2030 report in 2024 that we would still need our full fleet of gas power stations for many years to come. They know full well that wind and solar power cannot supply all of the power we need day in, day out, even with contributions from nuclear, biomass and imports.
You can triple wind and solar power capacity, but three times nothing is still nothing.
Miliband knows that the real problems will start to kick in after the next election, so he will do his utmost to destroy the country before then, knowing he won’t have to face the consequences.
Conservative Environment Network Want More Renewables
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 16, 2026
Following Kemi Badenoch’s pledge to abolish Net Zero, I questioned whether the wets in her party would let her get away with it.
The wets, many of whom are little more than Lib Dems in disguise, are ably represented by and often members of the Conservative Environment Network, CEN, which has been vigorously campaigning in support of Net Zero and associated green policies for years.
They are ideologically wedded to renewable energy and are blind to the costs already imposed by their own policies. They still believe the pursuit of Net Zero by successive Tory governments was right.
They will not give up Net Zero without a fight.
[SEPP Comment: Wets was term used by Margaret Thatcher against those in her party opposing her changes.]
AR7 Will Add £1.9 Billion To Electricity Bills
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2026
DESNZ have just announced the results of the new CfD auction, in what must go down as one of the most blatantly dishonest, arguably fraudulent government press releases in recent years:
Ed Miliband’s botched wind auction shows Labour can’t cut Britain’s bills
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 16, 2026
Claire Coutinho sums it all up nicely:
Ed Miliband used to say that renewables were nine times cheaper than gas. Well, after his botched offshore wind auction this week, he’s not saying that any more – and neither are bill-payers who are watching their bills go through the roof because of Ed’s maniacal obsession with his net zero targets.”
She is right about everything she has said. But where were the words, never mind the action, when she was Energy Secretary?
It is a simple fact that there are too many in the Party who still back Net Zero to the hilt, just as they oppose leaving the ECHR. [European Convention on Human Rights]
“Ed Miliband Has Gone Rogue!” Net Zero Could Cost UK £4.5 TRILLION By 2050
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2026
Video
Energy Issues – Australia
Update on Australian NetZero efforts
By Chris Morris, Climate Etc., Jan 11, 2026
The promised nirvana of cheap plentiful carbon-free power is probably further away now than it was then. Reality is just so cruel to the idealistic dreamers. Probably best summed up by a quote from Nick Cater “Sadly, our climate and energy policy remains in the grip of an intelligentsia that lacks the wisdom to recognize the boundaries of its own ignorance”.
Summing Up
There has been little decarbonisation since 2020. Aging, increasingly unreliable coal fired power stations are still the backbone of the electricity supply. The price of energy is inexorably rising. Australian governments, both State or Federal, are subsidizing domestic solar and batteries, subsidizing grid wind and solar generation, subsidizing fossil fuel plant to stay generating to do what the unreliable wind and solar can’t, and subsidizing consumers as power is too expensive. When will it all end in tears?
Energy Issues – Elsewhere non-US
Canada Comes to Grips With Financial and Energy Needs
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Jan 16, 2026
Alberta is a major vessel in Canada’s economic bloodstream. The province’s energy sector generates $88 billion in annual gross domestic product (GDP), which is 25% of the Alberta’s total economic output. This revenue flows east to the national capital to fund federal transfers that support public finances of other provinces, some of which oppose the oil production that provides them cash.
Critics will claim that allowing a new pipeline is a betrayal of future generations. But what truly endangers posterity? A fraction of a degree of warming that extends growing seasons? Or a future of energy scarcity, deindustrialization and economic stagnation?
Qatar Plans Massive Gas-Fired Generation Project; Plant Will Support Desalination Efforts
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Jan 14, 2026
Link to: Qatar National Vision 2030: A Roadmap for Transformation
Opening statement: Our Story: In 2008, Qatar embarked on an ambitious journey with the unveiling of a long-term national vision—a transformative roadmap to sustain long-term knowledge-based socio-economic prosperity.
Energy Issues — US
PJM Dials Back Near-Term Load Outlook but Maintains Steep Long-Term Growth Trajectory
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Jan 15, 2026
Link to report: PJM Load Forecast Report
By PJM Resource Adequacy Planning Department, Jan 14, 2026
New York’s Ridiculous Energy Policy Way Off The Edge Of The Cliff
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 15, 2026
In the case of New York State, the statute in question is the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA or Climate Act). Among the many requirements of that statute, the most immediate are a mandate for 70% of electricity from “renewables” by 2030 (known as “70×30”), and another mandate for 100% of electricity from “zero emissions” sources by 2040 (“100×40”). I should also mention that the CLCPA in addition contains a deadline of January 1, 2024, for the State Department of Environmental Conservation to issue regulations informing us peasants how these various impossible mandates of the CLCPA were/are going to be achieved. That latter deadline, you will note, has long passed.
[SEPP Comment: Why should NY State government obey laws it passed?]
Meta Does It Right With Nuclear Power
By Daniel Turner, Real Clear Energy, Jan 13, 2026
None of this [Data Center construction] benefits me. In fact, it costs me several hundred dollars more per year. I would at least like a thank you. Maybe a fruit basket.
Meta did something right, and it deserves recognition and replication. It did not just announce a plan to build expecting ratepayers would finance it through higher monthly bills. It brought its own money and government coordination to tell the locals things could actually… get better. Imagine that.
Microsoft aims to minimize data centers’ impact on electricity bills
By Julia Shapero, The Hill, Jan 13, 2026
American Energy Dominance Is Lowering Costs and Powering the Future
By Ted Ellis, Real Clear Energy, Jan 11, 2026
Washington’s Control of Energy
U.S. LNG Exports to Ukraine Advance America’s Energy Dominance
By Oleksiy Riabchyn, Real Clear Energy, Jan 15, 2026
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
USGS finds 1.6 billion barrels in Permian
By Copilot, MSN.com, Jan 16, 2026
Link to press release: USGS Releases assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in Woodford and Barnett shales
By Staff, USGS, Jan 14, 2026
The U.S. Geological Survey released its assessment of undiscovered gas and oil in the Woodford and Barnett shales in the Permian Basin, assessing that there are technically recoverable resources of 28.3 trillion cubic feet of gas – enough to supply the United States for 10 months at the current rate of consumption — and 1.6 billion barrels of oil, or 10 weeks’ supply for the nation.
An LNG victory to celebrate the New Year!
Editorial, Afternoon Tea, Jan 12, 2026
Return of King Coal?
Trump issues emergency orders to keep coal plants running that are slated for closure
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 16, 2026
Link to DOE Authority: DOE’s Use of Federal Power Act Emergency Authority
By Staff, Department of Energy, Accessed Jan 16, 2026
Nuclear Energy and Fears
The High Stakes of Sensible Regulation for New Nuclear Power
By Paul Steidler, Real Clear Energy, Jan 12, 2026
New York Nuclear Plan
By Roger Caiazza and Richard Ellenbogen, WUWT, Jan 15, 2026
Most of these underlying factors will be problems for New York State. If new technology is used the design and planning will have to evolve as the plants are built. There are contractor and supply-chain problems with existing infrastructure construction so this will be more of a problem for the new technology. If the deployment goes so far as to mandate that the facilities are “built by and for New Yorkers”, then there will be delays because there are insufficient skilled trade workers available today.
New York’s Climate Act Goes Nuclear: Bold Promises, Zero Progress
Seven years of impossible mandates, zero progress, and Hochul’s nuclear fantasy.
By Francis Menton, Climate Change Dispatch, Jan 16, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Meta Locks In Up to 6.6 GW of Nuclear Power Through Deals with Vistra, Oklo, and TerraPower
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Jan 9, 2026
In-Depth: Meta’s suite of three landmark agreements is poised to provide the financial certainty to extend aging plants, accelerate first-of-a-kind advanced reactor deployments, and relieve PJM’s tightening capacity constraints while establishing the hyperscaler as an anchor customer for a 6.6-GW corporate-backed nuclear fleet.
System stress has become increasingly evident in recent market outcomes in the organized wholesale market. PJM’s 2025/2026 Base Residual Auction cleared at $269.92/MW-day—nearly ten times the prior year’s price—followed by the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 auctions, both of which hit the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)–approved price cap above $329/MW-day. The outcomes essentially point to tightening reserve margins and growing scarcity of firm capacity across the region.
[SEPP Comment: High tech firms once venerated wind and solar; have they become junk?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
£2.7 Billion Bill For Floating Wind
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 15, 2026
It still pales into insignificance when the whole of AR7 is added up. We have so far concentrated on costs per MWh, but in total over twenty years, we will be paying out a subsidy of £38 billion.
I can think of no other branch of government that could, or ever has, signed away £38 billion of taxpayers’ money on a white elephant that has zero value at all to the country.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Govt Announces £120,000 Grants For Electric HGVs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2026
[SEPP Comment: In the UK HGVs are Heavy Goods Vehicles, large commercial vehicles.]
Labour Set To Ban Petrol/Diesel Lorries
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 11, 2026
It is quite frightening that this crazy policy is being pushed through by Keir Mather, the minister for transport decarbonisation. Mather is 27 years old and has a Degree in History and Politics. His only work experience outside of Parliament was an 18-month stint as a public affairs advisor for the CBI, before becoming MP for Selby in 2023.
Carbon Schemes
“Carbon” Capture, Utilization & Storage – Separating Fact from Fiction
By Lars Schernikau, Via WUWT, Jan 15, 2026
Carbon Capture & Hydrogen Electricity Costings
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 15, 2026
Moving to hydrogen, the main difference is in the fuel costs – the natural gas of CCGT is £45/MWh. In comparison, a CCHT, which burns 50% gas and 50% hydrogen blend costs £130/MWh.
California Dreaming
The Denominators of our Prosperity – Energy and Water
By Edward Ring, What’s Current? Accessed Jan 14, 2026
The premise of this newsletter is that abundant and affordable energy and water are prerequisites to solving every other challenge standing in the way of lowering California’s overall cost-of-living.
Idle California Biomass Power Plant to Be Rebuilt as Carbon-Negative AI Factory
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Jan 15, 2026
‘A National Platform’ for Carbon Negative AI Factories
[SEPP Comment: Once we logged forests for heat, then used coal, oil, and gas; now we will convert forests to syngas for AI Factories? Should they illuminate them with whale-oil lamps?]
Californian Teemin’
All the drought is gone
By Mark Hodgson, Climate Skepticism, Jan 12, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
California wants to mix hydrogen with gas to cut climate pollution. Critics say that poses risks
By Dorany Pineda, AP, Jan 12, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Natural gas is mostly methane, a potent planet-warming gas that’s supercharging extreme weather worldwide, which often impacts low-income and communities of color the most.
[SEPP Comment: How will they make the hydrogen? Steam methane reforming produces CO2. Using electrolysis to split water is expensive. Methane has negligible impact on global temperatures.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Fires, floods, and climate whiplash are new normal say climate astrologers
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 14, 2026
Climate astrology might be the new normal, but climate science died a long time ago.
Denmark Places Climate Protection Above Animal Welfare, Poisoning And Culling Cows
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 13, 2026
To meet climate targets, methane emissions from livestock must be reduced. In Denmark, dairy farmers above a certain herd size have been mandated to implement methane-reducing measures, such as feeding the Bovaer additive. The chemical substance inhibits the activity of specific bacteria (archaea) in the cow’s rumen that are responsible for methane production.
German climate terrorists accidentally increase the use of fossil fuels
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 13, 2026
On January 3rd, left wing extremists caused the longest blackout in Berlin since World War II leaving 100,000 people without heating or electricity for up to five days in midwinter. Suddenly local utilities have realized how vulnerable Germany is and are calling for a “national crisis reserve of mobile generators and heating systems.” And they want several hundred megawatts of it.
No Mileage Limits, Just Nowhere Left to Drive: The Real Purpose of Senate Bill 2246
By Guest Blogger, WUWT, Jan 14, 2026
Massachusetts Senate Bill 2246 is pure bureaucratic dishonesty. Not the crude kind that lies outright, but the more refined kind that tells the truth in fragments while carefully avoiding the conclusion those fragments inevitably produce.
The bill does not say regulators will cap how many miles residents may drive. It does not mention personal mileage limits, odometer tracking, or fines for “excessive” driving. Supporters will cling to that omission and declare the criticism hysterical.
Section 80 prohibits metropolitan planning organizations from approving transportation plans unless they provide “a reasonable pathway” to compliance with statewide vehicle miles traveled reduction goals. Read that carefully. Road projects are no longer judged by whether they improve safety, relieve congestion, or accommodate population growth. They are judged by whether they reduce driving. If a project allows people to move more efficiently but increases total miles driven, it fails the test.
[SEPP Comment: Is the goal of the bill to save the planet through more traffic deaths and congestion?]
ARTICLES
1. Trump the Climate Nonentity
If the media really cared about climate change, it would start telling the truth about it.
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ, Jan. 16, 2026
TWTW Summary: After giving examples of the media blaming Mr. Trump for almost anything wrong, the columnist concludes with:
“The world’s endowment of hydrocarbons is all but limitless, including unimaginable quantities of methane hydrates, not to mention that hydrocarbons can also be grown agriculturally. It only takes the development of technology to produce them. President Obama convinced himself the price of fossil energy must inexorably rise because resources were exhaustible. If this were true, the alleged climate problem would solve itself. It’s not.
The road to adulthood has been long and winding but at last we’re getting somewhere. Last April came a small but telling explosion in the climate community. On behalf of the prestigious Council on Foreign Relations, a former John Kerry climate aide, Varun Sivaram, inaugurated a program dedicated to ‘climate realism.’
It conceded many long-obvious points: U.S. emissions have become too small a share of the global total to affect the climate outcome. With or without U.S. leadership, countries aren’t going to abandon a resource from which they’re profiting. The internationally agreed targets for restricting future warming are wholly chimerical.
Then the explosion: If worst-case warming were to materialize, the U.S. should be prepared to use military force against recreant emitters. Of course, the suggestion was unserious but it usefully if frontally undressed a reality. Mr. Trump and all politicians are nonfactors in global warming because there’s no appetite to apply force and violence to stop people from consuming a resource they find useful.
This doesn’t mean humanity has chosen to live with the consequences of rising CO2, whatever those consequences may be. Carbon taxes will almost certainly come back to the drawing board if only for fiscal reasons. Geoengineering experiments to reduce the Earth’s temperature with aerosols and modify ocean acidity are gathering pace.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump at least can hope to be a climate footnote in place of the enlarged role the Times tries to assign him. Ironically, he will share the footnote with his most frothing Democratic critic, Illinois Gov. Jay Pritzker: Both men have been working lately to advance carbon-free nuclear.”
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
